Tales of Virginia drought and Canadian snowpack — mild and dry into next week, then perhaps some changes
The drought is growing and getting worse in Virginia, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor state map– I wrote a little about our local drought in Wednesday’s Weather Journal column. Virginia’s area of drought is part of a much larger area that extends through much of the inland Southeast, with the worst areas in Georgia. And nationally, the central U.S. still has a lot of real estate in extreme drought, an area that has actually been growing and intensifying steadily since some improvement in late summer and early fall. It will take some major changes in the weather pattern to change this map’s colors. Nothing of that nature is expected in the next 5-7 days, but beyond that, there are indications there may at least be some large low-pressure systems developing that can draw moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to moisten at least some of the dry regions. Those lows may also mark the beginning of cold air expansion into the U.S. More on that in a bit.
In the short term, the Pacific Northwest is continuing to get nailed by the “Pineapple Express,” bringing round after round of torrential rainfall and massive piles of high-mountain snows. The prevailing low-pressure spinning counterclockwise in the Pacific Northwest means a mild west-southwest flow will blow across much of the nation. For us, that will mean gradually milder afternoons, into the 60s this weekend and possibly scraping 70 at a few locations by Monday. No rainfall is expected at least through Tuesday.
Perhaps you may have heard on here or elsewhere about how Siberian snow cover had its third fastest spread on record this fall, trailing only 1976 and 2009, the latter preceding a cold and infamously snowy winter in Southwest Virginia (and the former, ’76, preceding an infamously cold 
winter). Take a look at Thursday’s updated snow cover map for the Northern Hemisphere, and you’ll see all of Russia and almost all of Canada are under a blanket of white. Comparing the U.S. snow cover maps between Nov. 29, 2012, (linked here ) and that of exactly a year ago, Nov. 29, 2011, (linked here) shows much more widespread and deeper snow in southern Canada and the northern tier of the U.S. this year than was there this time last year. The breadth and depth of snow cover north of us and on the other side of the pole remains one of the key factors that points to increased chances of intensely cold Arctic masses developing and recharging this winter before sinking south into the U.S. We have been seeing, and are continuing to see, Arctic air pool in Canada, awaiting something to tug it southward. The persistent Pacific Northwest low has resisted the cold air’s move the past couple of weeks, but in time, perhaps beginning as early as late next week, it appears on forecast models as if central U.S. storm systems moving over the Great Lakes into Canada will begin to help slide pieces of this Arctic air southward into the U.S. Don’t expect a sudden flip of the switch with full-bore winter suddenly materializing out of a mild start to December, but the jet stream will likely sink southward and more cold air park farther and farther south over the next couple of weeks, after next week’s mild start. There are no guarantees yet on whether the changing pattern will ultimately result in snowfall or even prolonged cold, but this winter does look to be a far cry from last winter’s long-lasting mildness, even though the first few days of “meteorological winter” starting with the calendar flip to December may feel otherwise.
Whatever your level of love or hatred for snow, enjoy the warmth while it lasts this weekend and early week.
November 29, 2012 - 6:40 PM
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From the weather channel: “Record-setting snow possible for Mount Shasta, CA! On the high end – forecast calls for 218 inches in 4 days…holy cow, that’s over 18 feet!”
You can take this to the bank. If the forecast proves thru Wed., you shore couldn’t ask for a better end to Nov./start of Dec. than they’re callin for. If it holds, I’ll get most of my wood in and stacked and in the dry. Then turn the hounds loose. Exceptin fer DC’s dawgs that she uses on a two/three dog night. She’ll wanta keep them handy. Don’t worry about the smell DC, they’ll get used to it.
Wayles: I’m reminded of Indian Valley John’s comment from Nov. 4, 2011:
“I also confess that I like to respond in a deadpan manner to some folks around here when they tease me about not being used to snow, ‘being from California’; I say, ‘Yep, its not the same out in California..(dramatic pause)..we measure it in feet not inches, (Sierras)’ “
I should have added somewhere that while we are in a pattern of progressively milder days, Friday morning will still be below freezing in most areas, and Saturday morning pretty chilly as well.
Wayles, could you post a link for that total, I failed to find it. That is lotta snow. Iwouldn’t want to be anywhere near there.
Indian Valley John sure was right. I will never forget going west to east on Calif. SR 108 ON THE LAST WEEKEND BEFORE MEMORIAL DAY in something like 2004. We wanted to get to the eastern side of the state by going through Yosemite, but that road had not yet been plowed. They had just opened SR 108 2 or 3 days before we got there, and when we drove through Sonora Pass (elev. 9600), my mouth was agape the entire time. The snow was packed solid in snowbanks at least ten feet high at the pass, and was almost certainly much deeper further up. Locals said that it was not a record winter, but that the second half of winter had been close to a record.
Yep, Kevin, but the rest of the day/days will more than make up for it.
Kevin, your thoughts please. I just remembered what Columbus Day (Oct. 8th) was like, incredibly cloudy and cold and damp. Afternoon temp was something like 35* as we drove through Christiansburg. Was that “event” a game-changer for us, even before Sandy? At least as far as the precip was concerned, if not the temps?
Nice post,Kevin. Thanks for your insight!
Mike
I think the Oct. 8 chilly damp day (record earliest sub-50 high at Roanoke, only 47, and only 42 for high at Blacksburg) was a manifestation of some of the weather patterns that have been repeating since June — yes, I said June — with NW flow aloft and sometimes NE flow at the surface causing cold air damming.
In a sense, the heat wave of late June/early July and the mugginess of much of July was a departure from the weather pattern established in much of June and continued through most of August and September, then enhanced a bit in October and becoming even colder than normal in November. The warm year’s pace was broken in June, re-established briefly in July, then fell off for the rest of the year.
But the true dryness really got going with that October 8 event. Roanoke got 1.30 inches of rain in October, but 1.03 fell by the 8th. Since then we have had less than an inch total.
It was definitely Roanoke’s last really substantial rain. Not sure there was anything in the event itself that led to dryness afterward.
Here is official NWS forecast for summit of Mt. Shasta:
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=41.40926084705613&lon=-122.20230102539062
Note that the current conditions listed at top are for the airport down in the valley near the town of Mount Shasta.
If my calculations were correct for Mt. Shasta, up to almost 15′ of snow are supposed to fall in the next 3-4 days! Pretty amazing (as a snow lover, I am awed at the sheer amount). I’d love to see some of that white stuff around here, but am hopeful for at least some days of constant rain.
Cold this morning up here low 23,now down to 33 and slowly dropping.High was near 50.Looks like the warm up is on the way!We all want snow,well almost everyone on here!Lol!
Travis: Historically, our big-snow winters are also big-rain winters. So your wishes are not mutually exclusive.
I just looked at the ENSO report of Monday (11-26). Still more potentially discouraging news for rainfall/snowfall figures for large parts of the USA. The increase in the 3.4 surface temps is over. This week’s temp? +0.3 degrees, down from +0.5 last time I looked at it. As Kevin mentioned in the Weather Journal article, El Nino never materialized.
And still nothing new on the PNA front, either. Continued negative.
Back to the weekly ENSO report. Slide 25 shows that by a wide margin the CPC/IRI gurus forecast continued neutral ENSO conditions for all of the upcoming months, through next spring and into early summer. No sign of either an El Nino nor a La Nina.
But what do they know, right, wd?
wdbrand – thanks for the chuckle.
Yep,in the next few days we need to move some wood too – closer to the house. I know the weather pattern will change one of these days so need to be prepared.
So my friend and I booked our cabin trip to the Shennies in early January, knowing full well this time, if Skyline is closed, that we may have to backpack in from the back side like we did last December. We know we are half crazy to plan such a thing on purpose but it is actually fun crazy, cooking meals on the big fireplace, doing a puzzle by lantern light, reading by the wood stove. Kevin – should we anticipate snow…or really deep cold weather?
All we can go by on that is climatology, HokieTrax, which would suggest there would probably be at least some snow on the ground at higher elevations at least and that it would probably be cold (40ish highs, 20ish lows). But as for actual weather, it’s just too far out, Could be 60 or 0. Ask again when we get closer.
I’m guessing it skews cold this early January.
I was walking the dogs this morning, and don’t remember seeing so many old contrails at one time. Easy to identify the flight paths. It must be calm up there. Seeing the white on blue crosses in the sky reminded me that today is St Andrew’s Day — the patron saint of Scotland (not golf)– and the start of haggis hunting season! I use the site at http://haggishunt.scotsman.com/ to hunt ‘remotely’, and its eight webcams around Scotland let me see the varied weathers back home.
wdbrand: That info was from Crystal Egger’s (of TWC) Facebook page yesterday.
Kind of a weird little stat from the NWS-Blacksburg, on Facebook: Roanoke and Lynchburg each ended up with 0.61 inch of rain for November. Only the 8th time on record the 2 sites have had exactly the same amount of rain in a month, the last being 5.60 in November 1992.
Perhaps more importantly: It was tied for the 7th driest November since 1912 at Roanoke, and was 8th driest since 1893 at Lynchburg.
Of course they’re presuming it won’t rain today on the last day of November. Seems like a safe presumption.
I took a peek at the maps you linked to Kevin and it is AMAZING the difference in snow coverage. I for one am hoping for plenty of snow this winter. The ground desperately needs it. Of course, Sammy and Doug don’t want the snow, but I’m actually wanting it to help combat the drought this year. Plus, sleigh riding is fun
Kevin – we figure that by being prepared (like having an umbrella), the weather will be good, Skyline open, and the hike a mere .4 to the cabin. Last December were were not anticipating Skyline to be closed at all and didn’t even call their weather line but we will this time. That was a memorable trip last year, unexpectedly needing to hiking 4 miles (all of it up) to Pocosin cabin, after sunset, snow on the ground, under a full moon….with heavy car-camp gear/food, not anticipating such a hike. We are much wiser this time! But how wonderful would it be to have snow while we are there.
Heading up to DC for the Redskins game on Monday. Glad the cold air is going to hold off for a bit.
View and snippet of whats up here..
If you see beef getting cheaper mid winter
you-ll know the drought won out.
My yard has 3/4 inch cracks in it.
sorry…I didnt incluse link..
http://www.star-telegram.com/2012/11/29/4449125/texas-braces-for-return-of-drought.html
I mentioned it a while back, but now for almost the past 2.5 months, our total accumulated precipitation is barely over 3″, actually 3.01″ to be precise, which is well under half the normal. The yard itself is bone dry. While the yard probably went dormant from the several-nights long of hard freezes, if it had not the dry ground would have likely resulted in the same. Still though, I’m amazed at how chalky dry the ground is. When I had to dig a hole a couple weeks ago (a beloved cat passed), the ground was simply powder. Digging was easy as a result, but even down to a dept of nearly 2 feet it was bone dry. I haven’t seen it this bad since summer 2008 when I was trying to landscape our house after it was constructed, and we were still in the firm grip of drought at the time. But, that was before I had started recording rainfall, so I’m not sure how that year stacked up to this one in terms of precipitation totals and trends.
Gavin, like you, I don’t recall ever seeing as many trails as I did this AM. Coming from the SW to NE and from the NW to the SE. Joe, how bouts checkin in here with what was up.
Joe, you could play tic-tac-toe in the jet trails across the house this AM.
A National Weather Service meteorologist put up a note about the contrails on Facebook. Said it was due to an extremely moist layer at 300 millibars, or about 30,000 feet. Humidity values were very high at that level this morning, so contrails formed easily and remained in place for longer than usual. Too bad that moist layer wasn’t lower to help with the drought — though at that height, the air temp is so cold, the dew point can be very very low and still have a high humidity value. Dew points of -30 to -50 don’t help us much with rain at the surface.
0Z Euro unleashes an Arctic blast behind an inland-running low a week from Sunday. This would be quite an upslope snow squall event if it develops.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif
12Z Euro is similar, but a little slower, with the cold air not quite pushing through us by a week from Monday.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif
Yeah home again after a week in the sky.
Funny wdbrand mentions the contrails as you could see them all the way from Houston earlier this afternoon. It pretty much was Tic Tac Doe.
Enjoy the weekend all. Will update the website later on Sunday with an another update on the last of half of December weather. I have a funny feeling that we could see a White Christmas in Virginia this year.
Nurse Snow, yes, in the long run plenty of snow would be very helpful in stopping this drought, but so would an incredibly wet winter like 1997-98 was in the floor of the Roanoke valley. You can’t fool me ….. your primary reason for wanting snow is to have some snow days so you don’t have to go to work!! :>) :>) :>) Plus, if we get a bushel of them (snow days, that is), Roanoke city might be able to keep their current school start day in September.
Good luck, and best wishes.
Hey, Kevin, I just watched Brent Watts on WDBJ7, and he mentioned the exact same stuff about November being the 7th driest in recorded ROA history AND also that Roanoke and Lynchburg tied at 0.61 inches for the month, only the 8th time that has ever happened. Did he learn it from you, or did you learn it from him, or did each of you learn it from a NWS report? Just curious.
And Brent also provided the same detailed explanation about contrails that has already appeared here. He did add one other “static:” that the temp at 40,000 feet needs to be -40 degrees. I noticed a few contrails last night also. First time in eons that I can remember seeing that.
We both got our info from the weather service. I did compare the rainfall to the historic records list before they put out any kind of statement about it. The Roanoke-Lynchburg thing was something NWS-Blacksburg posted on Facebook — not something I would have thought to check, since I don’t keep tabs on Lynchburg quite as closely as Roanoke and Blacksburg. Brent and I do see each other’s Twitter posts too, so we sometimes tip each other off to weather information.
Thanks for the reply, KM, and your honesty, as always. It was weird (for me) to read it here one minute, then watch Brett say almost the exact same stuff on air. He also mentioned one other thing, and I don’t remember seeing it above. In the newest drought monitor, the %age of Virginia that is in moderate drought (and that now includes Roanoke, I believe) has grown a lot. It was 19% last week, now 31%.
He also showed a system trying to make it in here late on Sunday, but according to his model all the moisture (an all rain event, I think) gets dumped on the mountains of WV, nothing making it anywhere into Virginia. That is one model run that I find very believable. TOO MUCH DRY AIR AROUND CENTRAL AND SW VIRGINIA right now!! I think it is going to take a fairly strong system loaded with moisture to give us anything over even a half-inch, especially from ROA east.
Just one saving grace to this sequence of events ….. at least it is not May or June or July.
Are there any record breaking, extremely long lived contrails on record? I assume it would be extremely hard to measure them accurately, but they seemed to go from horizon to horizon today. As a matter of fact, most of the clouds seemed to be broadened, diffuse remnants of contrails today. May be a question for joe.
Nothing new to report on the PNA outlooks, at least of any certainty. Just a tiny hint of a rise in a few of the models after Dec. 8th or so.
There IS something fairly major in the AO. A big rise after either tomorrow or Sunday. Both the 7-day and 10-day GFS AO outlooks show the AO going almost to zero from its currently extremely negative level of -3. The link: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_mrf.shtml
Snow and cold lovers, my best guess is that this impending increase will prove to be something temporary. AO might even go slightly positive for 2 or 3 days, but I bet it will start dropping again after that.
There is also an impending rise in the NAO, too. Rising sharply and going directly into positive territory by Monday and then increasing for a few more days after that on the 7-day GFS NAO outlook, but a more gradual rise up toward neutral on the 10-day outlook. Again, I think this rise will be temporary.
DC, another get even day today. Tomorrow seems to be a get ahead day.
Key to getting heavier precipitation here, be it rain or snow, will be digging a storm in the Gulf and throwing lots of Gulf juice over a cooler air mass. These storms moving into Canada dragging cold fronts aren’t going to give is much in this pattern.
Kevin is right..
Pretty much what you see in contrails
is the moisture attaching itself to the particles
in jet exhaust.
You can have quite moist air at altitude but you
wont see “whiteness” until an aircraft passes through.
The contrails stay together (relatively speaking) due to the fact that
the winds are fairly straight line and symmetrical much of the time
at those flight levels. Especially early in the mornings before
surface heating becomes a player.
Ive mentioned before that Va is a pass over point for many commercial flights. Many flights come out of Atlanta and Charlotte and pass very close to Roanoke. Early in the morning you will likely see the early flights from DC NYC and other east coast cities going west..there are many
that leave at around 7am Local..so those trails if there are any on that day will be generally in a northeast to southwest orientation. What I would like to point out is you are not seeing smoke coming from those engines. Used to be that way…but not anymore.
I just looked at the winds at 30k feet. The jetstream is well into Canada
and is what will move most (if not all) of the moisture of California in an ark well north of TX and VA. The winds over Va are around 50 knots or less from the NNW. Very uniform wind pattern all east of the Mississippi. You guys have had very optimal conditions for contrail watching. Looks like tomorrow should be much the same especially if the 10k foot scattered layer of clouds dont materialize. Early morning should be stellar. And winds very light morning and afternoon at the surface.
Thanks, Joe, for an insightful post on contrails.
Though I have to give credit to Chris Fisher from the weather service for posting on Facebook about the moisture levels at 30K. And to Robin Reed also for mentioning the relatively weak wind flow ‘s contribution to it. I didn’t really give much thought to the contrails til I started seeing some stuff on social media today.
One of the most interesting aspects of this year in weather nationally is the low number of tornado reports — almost a mirror image of last year’s prolific numbers.
http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/files/2012/11/tornadoes2011v2012.png
Im not a tweeter sort of guy…
Maybe I should sell my VCR and
try to move gently into this century.
…But I gave it my best shot.
Joe: I was giving those guys credit for what you said I was right about, not what you added. You get the credit for that.
I’m fine with you not being a tweeter and posting here instead.
Thanks Joe for the reason, as well as everybody else that checked in.
Sorry Kevin..
I didnt mean to imply that at all.
I just have some basic tools here..
And a little aviation background.
Im actually chastizing myself for
not having a few more handy resources.
A big part of me still needs to look at
frost on the pumpkin as just something really
cool to look at.
Good to hear from Joe about the contrails. I noticed them this morning and was amazed at the number above. Then saw several late this afternoon and overheard folks talking about the number they saw today. Thanks to Joe for the information.
wdbrand – yep, maybe tomorrow we can get ahead of that wood pile. I haven’t minded the nice days because it allows us to get those outside jobs done. Not fun to have to do them when it is freezing cold.
Social media (Facebook, Twitter) are a lot of static with a few golden nuggets. I don’t use Facebook to promote anything professional of mine, but do follow a few weather-related entities on there. I do use Twitter for weather-related work, and follow various weather entities, along with some other subjects and people of interest.
At least we get some moisture in the extended outlook.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif
Rick, the CPC can predict wetter things ahead, but I won’t believe it until I either feel it or see it. Drought begets more drought, as Kevin has posted here quite a few times over the years. And I was wondering if KM was going to mention that what we (“we” being zillions of acres not only here in a big chunk of Virginia but up and down the eastern states away from the coast) need is for the Gulf of Mexico to step forward. I almost mentioned it myself.
Quite a few systems have been moving up the Atlantic coast, but the last time a Gulf system socked southern Miss, Alabama, eastern TN, western NC, and us?? I don’t know, but I know it has been quite a while. I don’t know if that soaker that I witnessed in Vicksburg, MS at the end of September qualified …
We’re only in the 40-percent probabilities of wetter than normal on that map — it only need be above 33 percent to get a green color. The pattern of the green suggests Ohio Valley, Great Lakes and northern tier of the U.S. are most in line. It’s very consistent with the forecast models showing a couple of storms cutting northwest of us. They will each bring a shot of cold behind, and some showers ahead of them along a front, but doubtful they will really tap the Gulf. But … these storms could begin carving a trough and forcing the jet stream farther south, that MIGHT lead to more southward digging storm systems later in the month with rain and/or snow potential.
Kevin, I LOVED your comment 46 at 7:35 PM. I remember that a few folks (I don’t think any of them were bloggers here) were getting all afraid that this year was going to be another mammoth year for tornados because January was so active (check out the link to see what I am talking about). I remember that you pointed out that the season was simply starting very early because of the mild winter in such a large part of the nation. I think you and I both figured that it would probably be an under-average year for twisters because there was no huge divergence in temperatures between the Rockies and the Gulf states last winter.
When March went unseasonably warm so far north, it melted the snowpack into Canada, and that didn’t allow cold air to bank as far south as the previous year. I think the fact that spring became summerlike so quick over much of the U.S. was a huge factor in the low number of tornadoes. Fewer collisions of divergent air masses, as you mention.
Here is another bit from Nature…
I didnt know this,,
There is some discussion of instead of inadvertant
“seeding” and interrupting the natural order of things,
That they may develop a method of cooling the exhaust and let
condensed droplets fall as larger ice crystals.
They also talk about possibly restricting the flight levels of
aircraft..but with the sensitive nature of fuel prices I dont
see that happening until the world catches on fire. (slightly
tongue in cheek).
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v1/n1/full/nclimate1078.html?WT.ec_id=NCLIMATE-201104
November concludes with a 44.9 average temperature for Roanoke. That’s 3.2 degrees below normal, the coldest November in 12 years, and tied for the 17th coldest November in the past 101 years.
Some more NOV statistics: Blacksburg had a mean temp that did not even reach 40* ….. it was 39.8, or 3.9 degrees colder than normal.
Danville got only 0.48 inches of rain, and Bluefield 0.54. According to WDBJ7 guys, it was the 2nd driest November in each city. However, the records/history for those two cities may cover a lot fewer years than those for Roanoke and especially Lynchburg.
Oh, and it is 38 dog degrees here. A few high clouds, mostly in the west, making the moon appear a bit hazy.
Happy Meteorological Winter Everyone! Let it Snow, Let it Snow!
Let my woodpile get bigger fust.
Total rainfall (here on Doppler Ridge) for November – 1.03 inches
Wow, Dave Tolleris says the switch will flip about the 10th of the month! Have seen many long range snow maps predicting snow on the ground by Christmas, saw those on Joe Bastardi Facebook page. Seems like everything is coming together for a pretty decent winter! I feel some moisture has got to materialize soon. If the winter stays like this we will be in big trouble going into next spring and summer! I will enjoy this last week of warm weather with a round or to of golf and then kick back with the woodstove and get ready for some snow! Visiting parents in Giles this weekend and cannot believe I am running around here in December with a T-shirt on. This is setting up to be very much like winter 09-10, having all this nice weather now and then about mid December we get the boom thrown down on us! Bring the cold and hopefully some snow on!!!!
Sitting in Washington after a 15hr flight from Dubai last night. Crazy day of thunder,lightening and heavy rain in Dubai yesterday! Flooded streets,flooded cars everywhere. A local woman told me it had not rained that much in 11 months! The locals were standing out in it since they don’t see that much rain in the desert. Wish I could bring some of that with me,but you know those TSA rules about liquids…good to be back in the US of A.
Well….December starting on a mild note after that chilly November. Everyone please take this with a grain of salt, but Dave Tolleris is predicting a major change in the pattern starting, in earnest around the 8th-9th and really setting up shop by the 15th. A colder, stormier pattern from what I read but much it the weather terminology was a bit too much for me to comprehend and I am a firm believer that NOONE but the good Lord above knows what it’s going to do 2 weeks from now, but I guess it’s fun to speculate. The El Nino, La Nina, everyone talking about the GFS, PNA and the NAO and such like it’s some kind of game..we simply get what we get and I don’t even think these sophisticated computers even half know what it’s even going to do tomorrow, more-or-less, weeks ahead of time!
Clarkdocvet, you sort of lucked out with the warmer than normal weather today and for the next few days. Saturday the 24th was very cold and windy here.
Did you play the golf course at Dubai? I think the European tour had its annual end-of-season championship there last weekend.
I just thought of something. This year had a pattern within many of the months (I have yakked about it here several times in the past) in which the first 7 to 10 days were very warm vs. normal, then the remainder of the month was at least tamer if not cooler than normal. Will December join that trend? Sure looks like it.
Non-weather comment. The “Breaking News” story that is shown at the top of this page is about a blaze at Shaffers Crossing area of NW Roanoke city (where 24th Street NW goes under the N&S railroad tracks). The fire is at a storage building leased by CMC Supply, Inc. Guess who delivered their mail for 6-and-a-half years?
BTW, welcome back, clarkdoc, you world traveller you. Even down your way in the Galax/Woodlawn area, you will probably notice how much drier the landscape is now vs. when you left.
Hey, Scott S., remember when you made that comment on Monday about the 25-day Accuweather predictions for Roanoke’s high and low temps? They forecasted a high of 59 and low of 44 for today. Actuals were 61 and 33. Pretty good forecast for the high, but WAY off for the low. I’ll be nice and give them a C grade.
12Z Euro is a little interesting at Day 9-10 — that would a week from Monday-Tuesday. Not the L forming off the coast on the first frame with the little nose of blue down through western Virginia — cold air damming. Then notice how that low tightens on the second frame into a big storm off the New Jersey coast (sounds kinda familiar?). If this verified we might get some wintry precip on the first frame with much more over the Northeast by the second frame. Way too early for those kinda specifics.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS216.gif
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif
I have been in Floyd today at Winterfest doing some browsing and Christmas shopping. I ran into a friend of mine who said I needed to meet this guy. She pointed to him across the way so I went over and said “Hi, I’m Carol.” He said to me “DOPPLER CAROL!” It was Indian Valley John! I told him I had had an inkling that he might be the famous Indian Valley John. We had the best time chatting. He said for me to tell everyone that he is still alive and well but has been really busy. He said he has been reading the blog but has not had time to respond. He reminded me that I had mentioned I had picked today Dec. 1 as the first snow day. I guess I missed it. I am looking forward to chatting again with him – maybe this coming week. Meanwhile, no snow between Dec. 14 and Dec. 20, please. Company is coming to celebrate Thanksgiving and Christmas with us. They are flying in so need to have those 2 dates clear, calm and good flying weather.
Welcome back clarkdocvet! Yes, it was too bad you couldn’t bring some of that rain back with you but I know how the TSA is about liquids.
clarkdocvet and Doppler Carol: because cdv was not allowed to bring all that Dubai rain with him on the plane, I have an idea. I am watching at times the weird “Star Trek” movie about the young Kirk and Spock and all (starring Chris Pike). We can get Spock or Scottie to beam the rain here. But instead of Dubai, I vote for the rains from Astoria Oregon and the Pacific NW. They have been plastered ever since November 16th. :>) :>)
See the “Breaking News” story above? It may switch soon to “Blaze raging on Sugar Loaf Mountain Road area of SW Roanoke County.” No, not our house or street (you can’t get rid of me that easily ….). Just up SLM Road at the intersection with Mount Laurel Road (a tiny side street), several fire trucks appeared about 8 PM and police blocked off SLM road in both directions. Don’t know if it was a house or simply a brush fire. Very little wind, so I think they got it under control fairly quickly.
Our cops reporter tonight has been trying to get some info on that fire, Doug. He couldn’t get close either.