Thanksgiving week likely serves up quiet weather for Southwest Virginia
Thanksgiving week in Southwest Virginia will provide little weather excitement — and that is a good thing for anyone traveling or with outdoor plans. We’ll still have the northeast winds in the squeeze play between high pressure to the northeast and the low off the coast of the Carolinas on Monday, so it will likely dawn cloudy and chilly with some patches of drizzle possible. But we’ll see gradually milder weather this week, with highs in the 60s and bright sunshine expected on Thanksgiving Day itself — great weather for the ever-larger Drumstick Dash in downtown Roanoke. A couple of weak disturbances moving through Monday and Tuesday offer only the barest chance of a few sprinkles. Expanding the view nationally (5-day precipitation map linked here), the only really inclement weather through Friday will be the low scraping the eastern Carolinas (heavy rain, gusty winds and some large waves and more beach erosion possible) and repeated heavy rains (and high mountain snows) in the Pacific Northwest, as a slow-moving low spins around off the coast. Some light rain in the central U.S. marks another cold front that will move through our region by Friday or Saturday, possibly entirely dry here. This will turn things breezy and colder for next weekend.
While we may get a shot of breezy cold and perhaps some mountain snow showers by this coming weekend, it’s likely to be a passing shot with a quick recovery. However, there are some growing indications of deep Arctic air banking in central Canada over the next couple of weeks that may, at some point, make a run south. Something to keep an eye on the long-range for a potential early-season cold outbreak, and of course, any wintry precipitation that might develop if storm systems interact with it.
November 18, 2012 - 10:29 PM
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In case anyone out there is curious, I just looked up rainfall totals for 3 locations in western WASH and NW corner of Oregon. Port Angeles, WA is at the northern end of the Olmpic Peninsula, facing Vancouver Island and Victoria, Canada. They have had hardly any rain so far, only less than an inch. But Hoquiam, WA on the coast due west of Olympia has gotten 2.36 inches since Friday, almost all of it yesterday and today. And a bit further south in Astoria, OR on the southern edge of the mouth of the Columbia River, they have had well over 3 inches. The forecasts for all three cities for the next ten days include zero sunny or even dry days.
Doppler Carol, I watched a few bits and pieces of that PBS special, too. I have seen other documentaries on the Dust Bowl, too. Classic case of man abusing the land (over-plowing), and finally paying a severe price for it when the wet years of the late 1920s and I guess 1930 and possibly another year suddenly turned extremely dry.
Kevin, a reference was made during the PBS “doc” that some long-time residents of the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles had lived through bad drought years in the 1890s. I was wondering if anyone had identified stretches of at least 4 years here in the USA when severe droughts affected a large chunk of the country? I know that when I flew into San Fran on Jan. 31, 1977 (when the East and midwest were being brutalized by incredibly cold temps), northern Calif. was nearing the end of a very severe drought that was at least two years old. Land was brown everywhere as we came in for our landing.
Doug: This graphic will get you back to at least 1899.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/07/20/us/drought-footprint.html
I was in Santa Maria, California for the summer of 1977 and yes, it was all brown. All that summer it only tried to rain once…’tried’ was a good description. Coming from coastal TX, I thought it was wonderful, the low humidity and weather in general – 50s at night and rarely more than 70 during the day. But the water shortage issue was apparent. On the radio there were water tips of the day, things like put a brick in your toilet tank, water off while brushing your teeth, etc. No watering of grass. Most water was diverted to irrigation for agriculture. Just down the street from where I lived was what I called the carrot factory, where ‘Bunny’ carrots were packed. While riding my bike, I had to watch out for the dead ones (carrots).
Thanks for the drought map link Kevin. Wow – we are pretty orange. And 1934 was really a bad year. I see that the early to mid 1950s were dry too. I remember my mom telling stories about the sandstorms in Texas then, racing to get the laundry in before they hit and how the next store neighbor would drape dead black snakes on the fence to ‘bring rain’.
Thanks, KM. It is now one of my bookmarks. 44* here and it was that temp at RRA at 5:30.
Ooooo, Kevin; I loved that graphic you posted about. It is very interesting to see and makes me want to compare it to the winter Siberian snow pack for those same years.
Not happy to hear about next weekend turning windy and chilly. It is the Christmas parade up here in Floyd.
40 and very overcast and no wind this morning up here on Doppler ridge.
I’m hopeful for some rain at some point. The soaker we got last week was helpful, but we’re back to almost 4″ dry for the year again. If we fail to get substantial rains through the end of the month, this will be the 8th month of below-normal precipitation for the year.
New CPC 6-10/8-14 day maps lean both cold and wet.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/index.php
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
Month-to-date numbers for Blacksburg and ROA. First the temp variation, both very negative of course. Then the rainfall actuals, both of which are well below average/”normal.”
BBURG: -5.6 for temps, (!!!!) and only 0.95 inches of rain, down 0.72.
ROA: -4.7, and a really dry 0.55 inches of rain, down 1.50.
From my point of view, both those numbers stink for each city. The only golf round this month in Virginia was played on a hard as a rock layout. And some days it was too cool for golf for my liking. And at least if this were a normal year with no big Siberian snow cover, we would be looking at a big reversal of the NAO and AO to positive numbers for a couple of months. Even that looks extremely doubtful now. Sigh ….. “YCAGWYW.”
I just took another gander at the drought map info. I noticed that both this past June and June of 1977 were horrific for national drought conditions. The winter of 1978 was really bad, too, although not quite as bad as JAN 1977. And in both Octobers the Siberian snow cover was enormous. Still another sign that we are going to have a brutally cold winter?
Kevin: On the 6:00 news on channel 7 tonight they showed us with a cool weekend and then warming back up. Next Monday’s forecast was shown as 53* and sunny. The maps you posted earlier seem to show a different outlook. How realistic is their forecast?
Leo Lady: No that sounds about right. If you read above, I note this weekend’s cold snap will pass quickly. If there is a bigger, longer cold snap (and it is looking more and more likely), it will come a little farther down the road, not this weekend.
TWC just came out with their forecast for the next three months. I find it very strange, but it agrees with something else I saw recently, but of course I cannot remember what. A woman named Maria Larosa (a fine Polish name ….) was the moderator, and showed maps of the CONUS. For December, only states that would be much colder than normal will be (ahem!!) Idaho, Montana, No. Dakota, Minn., the northern tier states. Why? The humongous low south of Alaska will still be there!! Or so they think. I think it had SW Virginia barely in a slightly colder than normal area. For January, none of the lower 48 will be much colder than normal!!! Montana east through Minn will simply be “colder than normal.” We will be at the northern edge of a warmer than normal area that covers the South. Then a Greenland block develops for February and the midwest (as far east as NW Ohio) becomes much colder than normal, while we go back to the simply colder than normal area.
Reactions, folks?? I hope they are right, but I bet they are wrong. I would love to hear Dave Tolleris rip into their outlook ….. He is so tactful and diplomatic ……
Unusual temperatures in some locations right now. 46* at Bluefield WV right now, but 36 at Hokieburg and even 39 at RRA. Difference of course is that Bfield has a thick cloud cover, according to Mnsr. Reed.
30 F, light frost and a gorgeous predawn sky. (Red sky in morning, sailors take warning) My PWS is showing rain showers for today. It is supposed to be 70% accurate.
38 cloudy degrees. No wind. Looks like we might finally get those days with highs in the low 60s (today through Friday for ROA) that we should have been getting in early November.
The two latest GFS runs have a minor rain/snow event around the end of the month, meanwhile the 0z Euro for the same event has switched from the Great Lakes all the way down to a bomb off the Carolina Coast (which would likely be snow for us). But, the Euro ensembles do not agree with the OP.
Ok Doug, you had me laughing on that comment about DT. Can’t you just imagine what he would say to them? He’s come out with his forecast already and he thinks this is going to be a colder than normal winter with lots of snow :>) Which of course makes me happy, you and Sammy Oakey, not so much!
We had 60 yesterday and now that your wedge is breaking down, you should have it today. I have had a fire in the stove since October 27th. On warm days I add one piece of wood to keep it alive. Looks like I will be adding just a bit of wood until Saturday and then I will have to crank it up. Even though we are in the plus column for rainfall for the year, we could use a soaker now. Heard on the news this am of some forest fires. Probably in the Mtn of TN.
Ice storm lover, thanks for your comment this morning. What does “OP” stand for?
Michael Hoback, always great to hear from you …. except when you are personally taunting me (and Sam O) because I am a snow hater. THAT I could do without, and I am serious. Your area is very fortunate this year compared to the rest of SW Virginia and especially Danville, and I am happy for you and Eva. How far are you from Danville, by the way? As much as 150 miles? What an incredible difference in rainfall totals for 2012.
I will be off the blog much of today. I will approve new comments from time to time but won’t be adding much myself. Hope to put a new post up on Wednesday.
TYVM, Nurse Snow. I was hoping that my “tactful” reference to one Mr. Tolleris would tickle someone’s funny bone. However, to praise Mr. T, I have switched my expectations about this winter primarily because of DT’s and Professor Cohen’s descriptions of the immense Siberian snow cover and the immense effect that it had on the ensuing winters of 1977 and 2010. Two of the coldest winters I can ever remember here throughout the eastern US (and 2010 was one of the snowiest in our region), and they followed the two largest Siberian snow covers in October. Either they were two gigantic coincidences, or the latter helped cause the former. I bet strongly that the SSC caused the brutally cold winters.
Just took the ancient dog out, and maybe it will reach or even get close to 60* here by late afternoon, but it sure doesn’t feel like it. 49* but it feels cooler. Sun is trying to break through, but so far is fighting a losing battle. I couldn’t feel any wind, but if there is any out there, it has to be out of one of the easterly directions.
Any thoughts on what weather may be pending in exactly one week from now? Just saw the Accu-folks hinting at something, but then again they do like to play up the hype to sell their product.
There will be pushes of Arctic air and storm systems interacting next week. The when and where of those interactions is unclear. GFS earlier brought through a solid overrunning event storm next week that would be a widespread 3-6-inch type snow in our area, but the GFS at that range leaves much to be desired. Euro flirted with a coastal storm on an earlier run, but more of a Miller B coming together east of us and perhaps a bit late than a Miller A forming in the Gulf and moving up. Personally, I’m still thinking more toward an Ohio Valley/Great Lakes kinda track on a storm system next week (latest Euro is back to this), which would leave us out of most of the snow, but it’s still very early in the game.
Haven’t had a chance to dig into things in depth today due to other concerns, but one thing I’m noticing is that while the models create lots of high-latitude blocking that forces cold air southward, a lot of them also keep rebuilding the Pacific Northwest low. So you end up with NAO-, AO- but also PNA-. We usually don’t get long-lasting Arctic outbreaks or big winter storms in that alignment, as we would if it flipped to PNA+. But there can be short, sharp cold hits and occasionally small-medium winter storm events, especially overrunning events.
Blown forecast today, by at least TWC and “7″, and probably the NWS as well. Forecasted ROA high? 60. Actual? 54. Low was 36*, which according to wunderground is exactly a normal low for ROA. With a normal high of 57, still another NOV 2012 day joins the long list of colder than normal dates.
Kevin, can today’s coolish high temp be attributed to a small wedge?
Astoria, Oregon is now up to 6.71 inches of rain since Friday.
The major reason temperatures probably didn’t make it as high as forecast today was that the cloud cover, both from the weak wedge and an upper-level impulse moving through, was more persistent than expected.
Thanks, Kevin.
The rain forest on the Olympic Peninsula of Washington will certainly be living up to its title this week.
Hey, if any of you are curious what the TWC outlook for temps for this coming February look like, just look at today’s CPC 6-10 day outlook. Link is on the right side of this page. OK, OK, the CPC maps only describe the areas where “colder than normal” temps are likely, not necessarily how cold they will be. Anyway, the states that TWC outlined as “Much colder than normal” align fairly closely with the region outlined in the darkest shade of blue.
Here is another indication of how cold this November has been compared to the most recent 7 in Roanoke. The following is a list of the number of November days in ROA that reached at least 60 degrees. Starting with 2005: 17, 17, 15, 10 (in 2008, which was 1.3 degrees cooler than normal), 16, 13, and the incredible 21 of a year ago. This month so far? FOUR!! If the weak wedge finally relents tomorrow (I am again a bit skeptical, although not as much as today), we might get three more (WED – FRIDAY). Then we skip December temps for a couple of days and go right to January temps. Doubtful that any more 60+ days after Friday. Also, after tomorrow we get less than 10 hours of daylight. Boo.
Any of you planning to attend the Virginia Tech game at Lane Stadium at noon on Saturday? It will remind me of what happened two years ago. Thanksgiving was OK, in the 50s and sunny in ROA, then a very strong cold front came in and it was only 45* with a peak wind gust of 47 at RRA. Colder and probably nearly as windy at Lane. Well, this year could actually be worse/chillier. High of 37* (Jay Webb on My 19 and the NWS concur) with strong winds. Jay said that there could even be some lonely snowflakes whipping around.
I remember that Saturday after Thanksgiving as being the start of 2+ months of almost continuous colder than normal weather. We had that freaky warm-up during late on the 30th, so that the high on December 1st was 61* during a downpour at 12:01 on the 1st. But the rest of the month saw temps in the 40s, 30s, and 20s with 4 mornings in the teens until the 31st. Month was a -7.8 degrees for ROA!!
24 f and frost (no wind) and clear skies. Looks like it will be a bright sunshiney day!
Cold and windy on Saturday – oh no! Well, it is almost the first day of meteorological winter so I guess it is time for winter weather.
Happy Thanksgiving to all of the weather bloggers out there both near and far.
Happy Thanksgiving to all the fellow bloggers out there! Be safe on the roads if you are traveling this holiday weekend. We head out to Smyth County later this afternoon.
This morning we actually had to scrape the frost off the windsheilds in SW County. When I pulled out the car thermometer read 30.
I’m staying at home for the game…and hopefully I’ll be back in time for kickoff. Have an appointment in Salem to get my car serviced at Berglund…so hopefully the work will be done as traffic on 81 south is waning prior to kickoff. I’ll be doing my black friday shopping at the local firewood dealer…getting a load or 2 in advance of the winter. We lucked out last year not needing to burn a lot, so we managed with the leftovers from the previous year…but we are down to about 2-3 days worth of wood if we had a power outage.
Doug, we’ll be heading up for our last tailgate of the year. I remember the weather that day for sure. A couple friends of ours (UVA fans but we still like them lol) came with us. Unfortunately for her, she ruined a nice pair of boots when the wind blew so hard it knocked over a bottle of Bailey’s (works wonders in hot chocolate!). I love the cold games, but the wind doesn’t do anything for me.
Michael…those fires you mentioned are in Hawkins County….south of Kingsport. I read several comments from firefighters in the Kingsport Times News yesterday. Rocky terrain and dryness are making for nasty business. What they really need is rain.
Another beautiful day. Still keeping the fire going. Need it at night in the morning. Will need it all day by Saturday. Maybe we can get some rain out of that cold front but chances are low.
It just won’t let up.
http://islandfreepress.org/2012Archives/11.20.2012-TheOceansAssaultOnNorthernHatterasContinuesWITHVIDEO.html
Along similar lines to WD’s post:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=epva5JZXLZA
Thankful for a beautiful and safe drive to (Tuesday) and from (Wednesday) Ohio. Anyone traveling in WV – take the deer warning signs seriously. I saw the results of an unfortunate deer-car encounter on 77 near Beckley yesterday.
HokieT, was the deer involved a buck, could you tell? I wonder if “the rut” might still be going on. Probably not.