Through Thanksgiving, placid weather for Southwest Virginia, but rather chilly
This swirl in the northern Pacific south of Alaska isn’t going very far anytime soon. This large low-pressure vortex may even drift a little more south or southeast toward the Northwest U.S. And as long as it’s there, the chances of extreme Arctic air anywhere in the U.S. and for major storm systems east of the Mississippi is just about nil. The low, rotating counterclockwise, will hurl some disturbances into the Pacific Northwest, leading to rounds of rain and wind, with snow in the high mountains. Farther east, it will lead to a west -southwest flow of air through many layers of the atmosphere that will sweep in mild Pacific air over much of the U.S., deterring the southward advance of large Arctic air masses. We call this pattern of low-pressure in the northwest dominating the weather the Pacific-North American negative phase (PNA-) — these charts track the PNA index, and the line staying below the middle mark shows the PNA- pattern holding for the next several days. Some of the U.S. east of the Appalachians, however, will remain outside the main part of the Pacific mild thrush, and will continue to be affected by cold high pressure systems in southeast Canada and the northeast U.S. nosing in some colder surface air, with near to below normal temperatures hanging on in the mid-Atlantic and Southeast, including Virginia, for much of the next 10 days. This will be augmented some by the counterclockwise rotation of an offshore low-pressure system early next week, now projected by nearly all forecast models to be well offshore and not a great threat to cause inclement weather over any portion of the East (except perhaps the coast of the Carolinas) during Thanksgiving week. It appears that whatever fronts that do push through will be mostly dry, with no sign of any strong low-pressure systems forming that would cause more widespread precipitation in the East (except maybe scraping some of the Southeast U.S. coast early next week) through at least Thanksgiving Day and perhaps beyond. The resulting weather for Southwest Virginia will be a long period of mostly dry weather (some drizzle/light rain may develop with “wedge” effects of easterly winds blowing against the mountains by late weekend or early next week) with 50s highs, 20s/30s lows, gradually working toward perhaps some low-mid 60s highs and 30s/40s lows by Thanksgiving itself. This does not look to be a troublesome or turbulent Thanksgiving for travel in most of the U.S. aside from the Pacific Northwest.
Beyond Thanksgiving, there are just too many mixed signals to say too much right now.
November 15, 2012 - 6:00 PM
RSS feed 
Drought shown to be growing across Virginia in latest Drought Monitor, with moderate drought in areas east of Roanoke.
http://www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DM_state.htm?VA,SE
This situation does not look to get considerable help the next week or more.
Thanks for that drought monitor map, KM. I don’t understand how Danville is NOT in that pale tan D1 area. It is now down at least 13 inches of rain this year!! Yet Lynchburg IS in the D1 area, even though it is down not quite as much as Dville (Lburg is down about 10 inches, which is still ridiculously dry).
Meanwhile, chalk one up for WDBJ7 (and probably the NWS, too). Today’s high of 48 in ROA (48!! That’s pitiful for Nov. 15th … it should be 59) was only one degree lower than the “7″ forecast. TWC had forecasted a ROA high of 53.
Wow … thanks Kevin for explaining how the PNA is throwing a gigantic monkey wrench into what otherwise would be incredibly cold weather for the week starting about Nov. 25th (the Sunday of T-giving weekend). I am not going to post the links this time, but the GFS outlook for the NAO now shows a 9-day streak of significantly low numbers starting on the 21st. All but two of those days are at least very close to -1 on the 14-day outlook. And the AO is joining in, too. It is REALLY tanking starting also on the 21st, but quickly gets to -2 by the 25th and to an incredible -3 for one day on the 26th, then back to -2 for 27th -29th. But the GFS outlooks for the PNA roughly mimic the PNA ensemble which Kevin posted as a link above, staying negative, even all the way through the 14-day graph.
I bet some location in North America either in the USA or the southern edge of Canada gets brutally cold. Perhaps Glacier Natl Park area or the Cascades of Washington state.
If I get motivated, I plan on comparing the first 15 days of this November with each of the other Novembers from 2000 through 2011. I feel certain that this one is the coldest, but I am curious to find out just how cold it is compared to the 2nd place November.
***** Kevin, can you find out quickly (without too much effort/searching) which years were in 4th and 5th place for the biggest Siberian snow cover?? You already identified this year is 3rd, after late 1976 and late 2009. If we knew what the other two years were, we could look at the winters following those years, too, to see if the pattern holds. A sample of 2 has some merit, but a sample of 4 is much more impressive.
Modified the post some to note the possibility that the low early next week may scrape the Southeast coast, possibly into the Carolinas — that may affect some Thanksgiving travel plans.
Doug: I don’t know if I can get that Siberia figure easily. I’ve only seen it secondhand reported from NWS-Blacksburg and a couple other sources.
Some of the NAO- effects the next several days will keep some highs positioned right to funnel cold air down the east side of the Appalachians — but it doesn’t look like terribly thick Arctic air. Just enough to make things kinda chilly.
Kevin and everyone else, look what I found after doing a Google search!!
BULLETIN: you snow and cold lovers are going to love this one!!
Person doing the talking is Scientist Judah Cohen. Has used the Siberian October snowfall as a predictor of what winter will be like in the eastern USA. He has already been very right twice ….. for 2002-03, and of course 2009-10.
Linktime: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CIGp9r1y8E&NR=1&feature=fvwp In case I mess up the link, just search “Predicting Winter” on youtube.com
I have another bulletin: CALLING SAM OAKEY, CALLING SAM OAKEY!!! GET YOUR BACKSIDE OUT OF BED, TIME TO STOP HIBERNATING!!!
I went to click on your link Doug, very interested of course, and it said THIS VIDEO DOES NOT EXIST! What is this Judah guy saying, cold winter???
Scott: Short answer is yes, this meteorologist ascribes a high degree of correlation between fall snowpack growth in Siberia and cold in the U.S. in the following winter.
Sammy has left the country . With all this talk of snow and cold for the upcoming winter it may have been to much to bear. It would appear the last week of November to first part of December Is when we might have of first real shot of wintery weather. Cannot wait for the flakes to fly and to fire up the tractor to clean the driveway and neighbors who may need it done as well. The snow drought from last year may be long forgotten very soon. If not at least I can dream
Seems like we almost always have at least a flirtation with snow in the first 10 days of December. Even last year, there was a rain-changing-to-snow event at higher elevations that didn’t quite connect. Dec. 5-6 snowfalls have been quite common over the past dozen years, with moderately big ones in 2002 and 2003.
Accuweather now goes WAY out on a limb until about the 9th of December…that is way beyond their notorious 15-day outlook many have talked about in years past on your blog. That would be 24 days, but anyway, they have us chilly this week in the 50′s and a mild 63 for Thanksgiving, but several days later a shot of wintry precipitation and at least 2 straight weeks afterwards of highs in the low-mid 40′s with lows in 20′s. I think they have another shot at snow around the 9th of Decemeber but that is WAAAAAAYYY to out to be accurate. Just thought I’d post this for the funsies of it!!
Does seem like there is a lot of cold banking in central/NW Canada waiting on that PNA- pattern to collapse.
18Z GFS has a coastal storm and cold air over us on Nov. 29. 12Z had same storm with more of an inland track and snow on Ohio Valley. All highly speculative at this point, but maybe something to keep an eye out for in that timeframe. Does seem like there is cold air wanting to bank in central/northwest Canada the next several days, waiting on that PNA- pattern to collapse to flood southward.
Down to 26 tonight in the Chapel. Getting up early tomorrow and a group of 7 from the Church is going to Ceres (Bland Co) to can vegetable soup and brown beans. This will be a fund raiser for the Church’s Benevolence Fund. Looking forward to the trip. I may have to send Doug and Sam a couple quarts of the soup to sustain them through our cold and very snowy winter nights ahead.
Yes, Scott Saunders, Cohen says that it will be a brutal one for eastern USA because of the heavy autumn Siberian snows. Just go to youtube.com and search as I indicated. Don’t know why the link did not work, sorry.
My one hope for avoiding a big snow year is that it might be a winter like 2010-2011. No El Nino, or at least not one of any real strength, and the dry conditions in Texas may lead to continuing dry conditions here …. which could lead to a terrible spring here if we don’t get some decent precip in SW Virginia soon.
Hey Randy Oakey, when did the Dark Side of the Force grab you and prevent you from being a saint like Sam Oakey??? LOL
Cold and dry, like 2010-11, pleases very few. Most snow haters don’t like cold, and snow lovers are bitterly disappointed when it stays cold but doesn’t get flaky. Only ice storms are worse — almost everyone hates those.
That winter was my least favorite one to be weather-blogging because of the constant parade of almost-storms and near-misses, continuous windy cold cracking my hands and the occasional skirmishes on here between snow lovers and snow haters.
A decisively snowy winter like 2009-10 or a decisively mild winter like 2011-12 — with one overachieving, quickly melting snowfall thrown in to partially soothe aching snow lovers — are much easier to deal with.
Be nice to have a snowy winter! Its very good for the soil and actually good for the golf course turf as long as you have snowmold prevention applied. We are almost 5 inches below on precipitation from what I hear so any kind of moisture would be welcome.
A clear chilly morning with 21 on the thermometer and a really heavy layer of frost. Yes, I am a snow lover who doesn’t like the cold and dry and never flaky weather. Also a gardener who knows that eventually the drought will break and hoping it is not next spring.
Of possible interest to some….
“PBS program to explore science behind Hurricane Sandy’s wrath”
Still in awe of the size and power of Hurricane Sandy? The PBS program “Nova” will soon delve into just how such a storm occurred.
Though it hasn’t even been a month since the storm devastated much of the Northeast, an episode titled “Inside the Megastorm” will air twice in the coming days — Nov. 18 and Nov. 21, at 9 p.m. ET both nights.
Here is the program description:
Was Hurricane Sandy a freak combination of weather systems? Or are hurricanes increasing in intensity due to a warming climate? How did this perfect storm make search and rescue so dangerous? “Inside the Megastorm” takes viewers moment by moment through Hurricane Sandy, its impacts, and the future of storm protection. Through first person accounts from those who survived, and from experts and scientists, “Inside the Megastorm” gives scientific context to a new breed of storms.
Weather watchers have been trying to break down the why behind Sandy’s freak-of-nature characteristics since even before it struck. The Weather Underground’s Jeff Masters delves into it in a must-read blog post from earlier this week.
As Masters explains: “At its peak size, twenty hours before landfall, Sandy had tropical storm-force winds that covered an area nearly one-fifth the area of the contiguous United States.” Only Tropical Storm Olga in 2001 has had such a wide footprint of tropical storm force winds, and no hurricane has compared.
I grew up in a semi-tropical coastal TX that only varied between warm and humid and then hot and humid, with a rare freeze every few years. Many a Christmas there was in the 80s and as a child, I always wished it was like how Christmas was portrayed in popular culture – with sparkle and snow. There, I was a humidity hater, which I found very uncomfortable and draining.
I realized that after living in this area for 30 years, I just take the weather as it comes. Colder? Then put on the heavier coat. Snow? Pull on the Bean boots, get the shovel and salt out. Hot? T-shirts and flip-flops. What I enjoy is the change over the year – the white quiet of a heavy snow, the greening of spring, especially after a long, hard winter, the lush of summer and the crispy Hokie colors of fall. There is something good about each season here. Whether cold or warm, SW Virginia is a beautiful place.
Along the lines of Jp’s post about the PBS Sandy special, the Capital Weather Gang’s Jason Samenow put up a thought-provoking post yesterday about the topic of Sandy’s links to climate change. Warning: If you are either in the camp of “climate change is a hoax” or “climate change is the lone cause of Superstorm Sandy” you will not agree with much of what is in his post.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/the-whole-truth-about-superstorm-sandy-and-climate-change/2012/11/15/d3b7ceea-29e4-11e2-bab2-eda299503684_blog.html
And maybe of even more interest on the Capital Weather Gang site is veteran forecaster Wes Junker’s thoughts on winter:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/winter-musings-for-washington-dc/2012/11/15/cf870c00-2f61-11e2-9f50-0308e1e75445_blog.html
KM, those last two links should give Mr. Griggs plenty of research to add too. Good read and I’m sure Mr. Griggs will add to it also. Lookin forward to it.
Mr. Griggs, you might be on to something here. With your recent research along with others, there seems to be as gooda tie-in as any I’ve ever seen. Fine tune it and maybe you’ll be able to predict in advance. I doubt anybody will for a while longer tho. It’s not all about the several signals but what is happening all over the globe. Figure out how to read those and we will all be a step ahead for planning purposes.
Thanks, wd, but what was I on to? If you are talking about the impact of the Siberian snow cover, Kevin and Dave Tolleris before him put us onto that. All I did was do a Google search and found the youtube video. And I can tell you I am not a bit happy about it. I was all set to predict a big NAO flip to positive around my wife’s birthday of Dec. 23rd (hey, that was the date in December 2005 when a brutally cold first 3 weeks of December — 6 degrees below normal — suddenly flipped and the entire remainder of winter practically was much warmer than normal ….. JAN 2006 was a mind-blowing +7.7 in Roanoke), but that prediction just went gonzo. I fear that this winter is going to be epic cold, and at times very snowy anytime moisture comes here. Unlike all other winters here since 1998 except for 2010 and 2011, cold air is not going to be a problem during the next 3+ months. The NAO will definitely flip, probably by March 1st.
I consider the evidence for a cold winter here overwhelming.
Nice sunny day finally, high was 51 here ,low this morning 33 not too bad its been colder.Now down to 36!Have a great weekend all!
I have not yet looked at the two linked videos, but I did do the small research on what early Novembers have been like before this one. I had a “feeling” that more than half of them would be warmer than normal, but the results were stunning.
A. Of course the first 15 days of NOV 2012 in ROA have been the coldest early November of the 13 such Novembers dating back to NOV 2000. ROA stands at -4.8 degrees, and 11 of the 15 days have been colder than normal this month. And the 9th (exactly one week ago) was exactly normal, as KM mentioned in a small comment, I think.
B. I figured that something like 4 of the other 12 years would also be colder than normal. WRONG!! Last November was in 2nd place, but it was only about 0.7 degrees colder than normal through the 15th. The first 13 days averaged almost 3 degrees colder than normal, but the 14th and 15th reached 78 and 68*.
C. 2011 was the ONLY other early November that was colder than normal! 2002 and 2007 were normal, 2006 was slightly wtn (“warmer than normal”) but was schizoid, with plenty of very warm and very cold days, and all the others were either signif wtn or very wtn. Even 2009 was 3+ degrees warmer than normal.
Doug Griggs I remember the December cold wave of 2005,i was working outside everyday it was brutal!I was hoping for a nice big snow and like you said it suddenly warmed up.Don`t remember if we received much snow the rest of the winter but i was sure bummed out about the warmer temps.
Actually what I posted weren’t videos, just blog posts.
Looking at the models tonight, there may be some agreement starting to form about a strong low pushing through the Great Lakes into Canada about 10 days from now, followed by a push of cold air. Some of the models are looking pretty cold over much of the central/eastern U.S. right at month’s end.
Mike in Marshall, thanks for your comment. I was finishing up my 3rd year as the regular carrier on the same mostly walking route in DEC 2005.
I was really bummed out during the first 20 days of DEC that year, because the Old Farmer’s Almanac had gone way, way out on a limb and forecasted a psychotic winter, with both DEC ’05 and JAN ’06 being way, way below normal for SW Virginia (and I think it included your area, too). They got the first 3 weeks of that 9-week period very right, but then the NAO and AO did a massive and fairly permanent flip to +, and their JAN outlook was abysmally wrong {JAN ’06 was a Georgia-like +7.7 here, with only 2 days colder than normal}. OFA had forecasted a super warm FEB ’06, but they got that wrong, too. At least here in ROA. It was “normal,” a +0.5.
The 2005-06 winter was another measly one for snowfall here in ROA. A total of 3.7 inches from 3 tiny snows in DEC., only a trace in JAN, and 5.9 inches in FEB, with the only good snowfall one of 5 inches on 2-11-06. A trace in March. Looks like a total of 9.6 inches.
I question some of the so-called facts in Jason Samenow’s linked article or blog post. Perhaps his numbers are right about the Atlantic Ocean having risen 6 to 9 inches during the past 150 years at The Battery. But I have always tried to keep myself aware of articles and news about anything measurable related to climate change, and the increase in the Atlantic Ocean level is not one I had been aware of. Such a change is newsworthy …. have any of you heard of such stuff being in the national news? I am not saying that it is not accurate.
I was more impressed by the linked article by Wes Junker. He also mentioned the research by Mr. Cohen and the Siberian autumn snow cover. Also showed the top ten and low ten seasonal snowfall totals for Wash DC. He had charts showing whether an El Nino or a La Nina was in effect during those winters, too. I was living either in Laurel MD or Alexandria VA for two of the biggies and also two of the tinies.
What I particularly appreciated about what Mr. Junker said was the crucial importance of the AO as well as the NAO. A few weeks ago I looked at what the AO had done during some truly humongous snowstorms and/or cold streaks, and sure enough, during almost every one of them the AO had dropped like a rock, and I mean REALLY DROPPED. All the way to -5 and -6 for a couple of them!! Opinion: such a huge drop in the AO is more likely to happen this winter than any other since I have moved to Roanoke, INCLUDING the winters of 2009-10 and 2010-11.
Bottom line: it will serve us well to closely monitor the NAO and even especially the AO outlooks this winter. I have a habit (shortcoming?) of looking at only the GFS outlooks, because unlike forecasting particular storms and their paths (where the EURO and probably a couple of other models are often better), the GFS did better a few years ago of predicting movements in the “teleconnections” than the ensembles. But I have not gone back and checked the accuracy of the GFS outlooks vs. the consensus of the Ensembles for the AO, NAO, and PNA recently. So when I post stuff about the outlooks, I will try to include words describing the ensemble graphs, also. But I will confess right now that I will not mention the Ensembles every time.
Popular Mechanics, of all places, had this article noting New York’s sea level rising by 2.8 inches just since 1990 (and Norfolk’s by nearly 5 inches).
http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/environment/climate-change/why-new-yorks-sea-level-is-rising-faster-than-the-worlds
I have seen 6 to 8 inches quoted elsewhere on NYC sea level rise in last 150 years.
In addition to the daily model runs out to 10 days, Allen Huffman’s models page also has a chart tracking the NAO for the same time period as projecting by the Euro. Currently showing it increasingly in positive territory next 10 days.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwf.html
Roanoke’s 10 coldest Novembers on record (since 1912) ranged form 40.2 in 1976 to 44.2 in 2000. Averaging 46.0 through Thursday, that would be a reachable figure if we were headed into an Arctic outbreak to end the month. Appears likely now that we will warm up just enough toward Thanksgiving and perhaps beyond, and any cold outbreak that might occur will come too late, to put a Top 10 coldest November into play.
OK, on to today’s NAO outlooks. There is again a real difference between the consensus of the ensemble graphs and the 14-day GFS NAO outlook. Links: first the ensemble: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm.shtml
And the one for the GFS graphs: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml
AS you can see, if my links work and if you click on them, the Ensemble average takes the NAO only slightly into negative area for the rest of this month on their 14-day outlook. Unlike the GFS. It shows a big drop well into neg country starting on NOV 21 and continuing right through the rest of NOV, although their is a bit of a rise for NOV 29 and 30. So this will provide a good test to see whether the Ensemble average or the GFS does a better job of prediction.
WOW!! The difference between the average of the Ensemble models and the GFS outlooks for the AO is even more startling!! Some of the graphs (red lines) on the 14-day ensemble take the AO well into positive territory, while others take it to neutral, and only a couple (you can guess which is one in the following group …) take it well into negative levels. The GFS AO 14-day outlook predicts an even bigger nosedive (still) for the AO after NOV 21st than its NAO cousin!! Still showing a -3 for NOV. 26th!!
OK, links. Ensemble: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml
And for the GFS: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_mrf.shtml
On the PNA, there is agreement. Both the Ensemble and the GFS show the PNA staying negative, although trending toward neutral a bit by the end of the month.
I intended to post the following a couple of weeks ago about Sandy, but forgot and kept on forgetting. Often I would remember it at work, but that does no good ‘cuz don’t have access to a compuker (not a typo!!) there.
A few years ago The Weather Channel came up with about 5 or 6 one-hour shows entitled (I think) “It Could Happen Tomorrow.” I am pretty sure that one was about what would happen if an F-5 tornado hit Dallas. That is possible … after all, one of the biggest and most destructive tornados ever hit the Oklahoma City area (in May 1999 I think). Another was “What if an 8.0 earthquake (or was it 9.0?) hit San Francisco?” Again very possible. But one that I was extremely skeptical of was one entitled “What if a Category 3 Hurricane hit New York City?” They showed a storm track that I had never seen before. I remember being shocked when I found out that the hurricane of 1938 had gone pretty much due north and hit Long Island and then CT, instead of taking the usual NE turn and once in a while brushing Cape Cod or more often going out to sea. Of course the storm track TWC showed was extremely similar to the actual storm track of Sandy …. coming up just off the East Coast, then heading NW and smacking NYC. I remember seeing the TWC show and scoffing at it …. “There is no way that a hurricane will ever take a NW track from off the coast of DEL and MD!!” Wrong, Douglas.
Kevin, I am surprised that NOV 2000 made the list, because the first 15 days averaged a bit “wtn.” Sure enough, there was a massive cold snap from the 15th through the 25th.
Brent Watts of “7″ at 5:20 PM said that there was a good chance of an inversion layer this A.M., with the ridgetops being warmer than the valleys. Looks like BW was correct. Temp here now? 36.5*. At RRA? 30. I bet wd is about 40 or even warmer.
It was 22 this morning up here – that was around 6:30 am. It had been 24 earlier. Beautiful day outside today so have been out doing yard work and enjoying the day.
40* at daybreak.
Greetings from HOT and HUMID Male,Maldives. Arrived today to temps in upper 80′s and humidity of 81 percent. Sweating buckets while walking around town. We boad the dive boat tomorrow (Sunday),so hope the ocean breezes help to cool things down. Of course,being 100′ feet below the water helps too…
Doppler Gal won’t you come out tonight, come out tonight, come out …… Oops. Those are the lyrics for Buffalo Girls. In one of my 8 zillion comments here, I once referred to Michael Hoback’s region of Virginia as “Another World in Blackwell Chapel.” Same goes for you, too, DC. “Another World in Dopplerville.” 22 degrees!!! BRRRR.
By the way, where on earth is everyone today?? Enjoying a rare day with the temp above 55?
Clark: Big contrast there to here. Patchy freezing drizzle may be possible at higher elevations along the Blue Ridge early Sunday as a wedge situation develops.
Will be updating blog soon to note this.