Comments on: Through Thanksgiving, placid weather for Southwest Virginia, but rather chilly

By: Kevin Myatt

Kevin Myatt — Sat, 17 Nov 2012 21:36:28 +0000

Clark: Big contrast there to here. Patchy freezing drizzle may be possible at higher elevations along the Blue Ridge early Sunday as a wedge situation develops.

Will be updating blog soon to note this.

By: Doug Griggs, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft

Doug Griggs, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft — Sat, 17 Nov 2012 21:34:44 +0000

Doppler Gal won’t you come out tonight, come out tonight, come out …… Oops. Those are the lyrics for Buffalo Girls. In one of my 8 zillion comments here, I once referred to Michael Hoback’s region of Virginia as “Another World in Blackwell Chapel.” Same goes for you, too, DC. “Another World in Dopplerville.” 22 degrees!!! BRRRR.
By the way, where on earth is everyone today?? Enjoying a rare day with the temp above 55?

By: Clarkdocvet

Clarkdocvet — Sat, 17 Nov 2012 21:12:44 +0000

Greetings from HOT and HUMID Male,Maldives. Arrived today to temps in upper 80′s and humidity of 81 percent. Sweating buckets while walking around town. We boad the dive boat tomorrow (Sunday),so hope the ocean breezes help to cool things down. Of course,being 100′ feet below the water helps too…

By: wdbrand

wdbrand — Sat, 17 Nov 2012 20:55:50 +0000

40* at daybreak.

By: Doppler Carol (Floyd County Doppler 2546 ft)

Doppler Carol (Floyd County Doppler 2546 ft) — Sat, 17 Nov 2012 18:52:39 +0000

It was 22 this morning up here – that was around 6:30 am. It had been 24 earlier. Beautiful day outside today so have been out doing yard work and enjoying the day.

By: Doug Griggs, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft

Doug Griggs, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft — Sat, 17 Nov 2012 10:58:59 +0000

Brent Watts of “7″ at 5:20 PM said that there was a good chance of an inversion layer this A.M., with the ridgetops being warmer than the valleys. Looks like BW was correct. Temp here now? 36.5*. At RRA? 30. I bet wd is about 40 or even warmer.

By: Doug Griggs, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft

Doug Griggs, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft — Sat, 17 Nov 2012 03:29:27 +0000

Kevin, I am surprised that NOV 2000 made the list, because the first 15 days averaged a bit “wtn.” Sure enough, there was a massive cold snap from the 15th through the 25th.

By: Doug Griggs, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft

Doug Griggs, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft — Sat, 17 Nov 2012 03:26:57 +0000

I intended to post the following a couple of weeks ago about Sandy, but forgot and kept on forgetting. Often I would remember it at work, but that does no good ‘cuz don’t have access to a compuker (not a typo!!) there.

A few years ago The Weather Channel came up with about 5 or 6 one-hour shows entitled (I think) “It Could Happen Tomorrow.” I am pretty sure that one was about what would happen if an F-5 tornado hit Dallas. That is possible … after all, one of the biggest and most destructive tornados ever hit the Oklahoma City area (in May 1999 I think). Another was “What if an 8.0 earthquake (or was it 9.0?) hit San Francisco?” Again very possible. But one that I was extremely skeptical of was one entitled “What if a Category 3 Hurricane hit New York City?” They showed a storm track that I had never seen before. I remember being shocked when I found out that the hurricane of 1938 had gone pretty much due north and hit Long Island and then CT, instead of taking the usual NE turn and once in a while brushing Cape Cod or more often going out to sea. Of course the storm track TWC showed was extremely similar to the actual storm track of Sandy …. coming up just off the East Coast, then heading NW and smacking NYC. I remember seeing the TWC show and scoffing at it …. “There is no way that a hurricane will ever take a NW track from off the coast of DEL and MD!!” Wrong, Douglas.

By: Doug Griggs, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft

Doug Griggs, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft — Sat, 17 Nov 2012 03:15:58 +0000

On the PNA, there is agreement. Both the Ensemble and the GFS show the PNA staying negative, although trending toward neutral a bit by the end of the month.

By: Doug Griggs, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft

Doug Griggs, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft — Sat, 17 Nov 2012 02:56:39 +0000

WOW!! The difference between the average of the Ensemble models and the GFS outlooks for the AO is even more startling!! Some of the graphs (red lines) on the 14-day ensemble take the AO well into positive territory, while others take it to neutral, and only a couple (you can guess which is one in the following group …) take it well into negative levels. The GFS AO 14-day outlook predicts an even bigger nosedive (still) for the AO after NOV 21st than its NAO cousin!! Still showing a -3 for NOV. 26th!!
OK, links. Ensemble: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml
And for the GFS: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_mrf.shtml