Unseasonably cold start to November to relent, storminess shifts to central U.S.
Maybe it should increase our confidence in the National Weather Service to know that, months ago, the Blacksburg office picked the perfect weather weekend to have its every-two-years open house. The event will run from 10 a.m. to 3 p.m. Saturday at the weather service’s office in the Corporate Research Center. If you’re traveling U.S. 460, turn on Southgate Drive toward Lane Stadium, then take a right at the intersection near Lane Stadium on Tech Center Drive, and the weather service is to the right just past where the road curves around the west end of the Virgina Tech Montgomery Executive Airport. If you’re there between 11 and 2, stop by the Virginia Tech Storm Chasers exhibit outside and say hi — I plan to be there during that timeframe. Guest blogger Kathryn Prociv – due for another 3-day stint here next week, fresh off her first appearance on the Capital Weather Gang site — will also be around. And of course there will be many other exhibits, plus tours of the weather service office and a chance to meet the people behind the forecasts and warnings and discussions we so often examine on this site.
Temperatures have started November in the tank compared to normal — 8 to 10 degrees below normal at Blacksburg and Roanoke, with mutliple mornings below freezing. Strong high pressure blocking near Greenland has forced the jet stream far to the south, the “trough” carved out more last week of the slowly weakening but widening circulation of Superstorm Sandy. This pattern also spawned a strong early season nor’easter that dumped up to 13 inches of snow along and just inland from the coast of the Northeast. But the pattern is now relenting. The next couple of mornings will continue to be chilly — below freezing in much of Southwest Virginia — but by Saturday afternoon there could be some low 70s, especially from Roanoke south and east, with 60s just 
about everywhere else in Southwest Virginia. With a low-pressure trough digging into the West instead of the East, and the upstream blocking high in Greenland breaking down, much of the weather action will shift to the central U.S. A strong low in the central U.S. will unleash heavy snow on the central and northern Rockies, extending into the northern High Plains, with blizzard conditions possible. This low will move northeast into Canada and drag a cold front through our region about Tuesday of next week, bringing some showers and a cooldown, maybe a couple of days of 40s-50s highs/20s-30s lows chill. But the pattern appears likely to bounce back to mild-mannered by late next week. There is an interesting storm system showing up on the models round the weekend before Thanksgiving — interesting in that it could be a strong southern-stream system wrapping up in the Southern Plains, something we haven’t seen much of at all since the 2009-10 winter. The early models show a significant cold-air damming signal east of the mountains, but not really much cold air available to dam, with the current blocking pattern not present to force Arctic air south. I’m not expecting this storm to become a significant wintry precipitation maker in our region — probably a holiday week rain maker — but it may signal the growing influence of a southern jet stream branch, a feature that could make our winter wetter and/or whiter, if it duplicates frequently. Its passage may also reset the pattern to something colder by late month or early December, though this is very iffy at this point.
November 8, 2012 - 6:26 PM
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If some of you want to meet me in person, there is still a slight chance if you can hang around the NWS open house Saturday until well after 1 PM. I may be able to leave my workplace at noon that day, if no one calls in sick, and if volume is not too heavy. I figure it is a solid hour of driving, and I will probably want to stuff face before getting there.
Doug – I plan to stop by after 1 PM so I’ll watch for you!
I just checked the TWC forecasts for both ROA and Blacksburg for Sunday, and they are now talking about “Brutus.” HUH?? Who on earth is Brutus, I asked myself. Turns out “Brutus” is TWC 2nd named storm, in the NW. How lame. We have not even reached Veteran’s Day, and they are into the Bs, and headed for letter C. At this rate the last named storm may be ZZ Top, having gone through the alphabet 3 times …..
A few Brutuses of note:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Brutus_in_TX_2006.JPG
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Portrait_Brutus_Massimo.jpg
http://www.allwrestlingsuperstars.com/wrestling/brutus-beefcake/page/2/
http://www.dreamstores.gr/en/product.php?pid=187
I just clicked on a couple of stories on weather.com, and found one in which people had provided comments. Guess what?? Every single one of the 7 or 8 comments I read were also negative about the new TWC polic …. GIMMICK of naming winter storms. One person’s comment was particularly clever. Went something like, “You are now naming winter storms, next it will be tornados, then earthquakes …. what’s after that? Sneezes?” It is rare when so many people of diverse backgrounds can all agree on something. Looks like TWC has found one ….. everybody agrees that TWC ought to “deep-six” their idea of naming winter storms. I think there is a good chance that their thing of naming winter storms does not survive to the end of the season.
Good ol’ Popeye!! Yeah, Brutus was Popeye’s rival for going after Olive Oyl. Mr. Negative Short-term Memory now remembers what Popeye used to say after speed-eating a can of spinach and getting extra energy to whup Brutus: “I’m strong to the finish when I eat my spinach ….. I’m Popeye the Sailor Man!”
Judging by the Euro model, they’ll get their C storm by next weekend … lots of cold air advection behind southern stream storm, probable central/southern Plains large-scale snow event, if it’s reasonably close to verifying. If this is even a moderately active winter and they name clippers and lake effect events, they’ll easily get to Z, and maybe ZZ Top as you suggest, Doug.
I regret that I will miss the open on Saturday. Little too far to come. My wife is dragging me to the Bristol Mall for new clothes since my old ones no longer fit since my surgery. If life was not so busy, we would come to Tanglewood and drop by the open house but too many people are calling. Have a good one and you snow lovers find out what we can do to conjure up a big un this winter.
It is going to be cold one tonight. Already down to 27 here at the Chapel.
Sorry that you will not be there, MH. As I have indicated, I may not be able to go there, also. I will have to get somewhat lucky.
As for the climate down your way, Michael, it reminds me of an old soap opera name ….. Another World in Blackwell Chapel.
Now that the deadline has arrived, at my urging, Nancy Griggs chose November 28th as the date of the first snow in both ROA and (sad) Hokieville. Why then? The date of the next full moon. We were in Vicksburg for the late September full moon and got drenched, then last month it was Sandy.
I have been hoping that an Atlantic hurricane would be named Douglas. Turns out that Douglas is already in the cycle of names for the Pacific. First used in 1984, when Hurricane Douglas was the strongest storm (Category 4 at one time) of that season. Did no major damage to land. Next year that will have one is 2014. I will be really ticked off if TWC uses my first name for the D winter storm. It will be a man’s first name for the D storm.
Kevin is stuck in the Pacific loop too, Doug. Unless it’s one of the rare hurricanes that hits Hawaii or does an 180 turn into Acapulco, those names don’t get retired very often.
Working right behind me in the Roanoke Times office tonight is someone named Katrina who would just as well the National Hurricane Center had picked another K name back in 05.
http://www.roanoke.com/extra/wb/33330
I might drop in at the open house. We’ll see.
It is 36 here and 34 on the icon above. Even if it does reach the 62 or 63 degrees that are today’s forecast high for ROA, that would STILL translate into another (slightly) cooler than normal day. Sometime around the middle of Sept or so, I commented that early September was something like the 6th time in the most recent 7 months in which the first 8 days or so had been quite a bit warmer than normal. Well, my comment put a stop to that. Every single day this month, as KM mentioned, has been cooler/colder than normal, and same held true for October.
Lynchburg and especially Danville are in drought, especially the latter. Lburg is now down about 9.5 inches for rainfall, and Dville is a ridiculous 12.7. Even ROA is almost 6 inches less than normal.
44.8* here at 7 AM. Highest temp shown for the PWS’s in the area. The ole above the frostline trick in play again. If you watch my temps long enough you get a pattern. That’s why I can plant 2/3 weeks earlier than the CS area.
Always the 24th/25th of Nov. Mr Griggs. No science involved. Just a memory of the greatest snow of them all, at least to a kid.
I’m gonna put up a question a couple of days before T-Day. It won’t concern probably 95% of the board, but maybe a few will answer.
I will arrange my day so that I am at the NWS after 12:30. Looking forward to seeing some faces to put with the names and to meeting in person the Blog Master. Yes, Michael Hoback, we will miss seeing you – maybe next time.
I bet we don’t hear of named storms next year.
MH, where exactly is BWC located? Near what towns? Just wanted to get a better handle on your location. Thanks.
Blackwell Chapel community is in the Meadowview Mailing area. We are 8 miles north of the Meadowview Exit on I81 which is between Glade Spring and Abingdon. WE are also 7 miles west of Saltville. Blackwell Chapel is in Rich Valley in Washington Co between Walker Mtn and the Clinch Mtn. When we do make the maps it is listed as ‘Blackwell’.
Thanks for asking and on a weather note it is lovely today, is it not?
Brutus?!? Really!? Kevin: would it do us any good to contact TWC and let them know what a monumentally bad idea naming winter storms is? I cringe opening TWC website now. Like our residen postman says, they’ll be in the zz’s before winters end.
DC: I gather that you would be far from alone if you did contact them about this.
Thanks very much, wd. And good luck!!
Jest letem make bigger fools of themselves than they already have.
All in jest Mr. Griggs. I just couldn’t resist. I think your wife or maybe me will ace this contest.
Switching to still another in the long list of Griggs research projects, I have some possibly wonderful news for us snow lovers and discouraging news for the other 96% of us.
I just looked at the “Monthly Mean Indexes (technically “Indices” I think) of the NAO” starting with the autumn of 1980. Looked at Novembers that had negative mean levels of at least minus 0.34, then looked at the following 4 months to see what happened to the Mean NAO numbers for the ensuing winter. Kevin has mentioned here not only recently but in previous years that a cold, Negative NAO in NOV. often leads to bad news for the NAO (“bad” meaning lots of positive NAO numbers) for most of the rest of the winter. BOY WAS HE EVER RIGHT!! More in a separate comment.
I think Doug meant “us snow haters” in previous comment — can’t imagine that he’s flipped sides, or that the other 96 percent have.
I found 9 Novembers that met the … er, parameters I mentioned above. Nov 1980 was a -0.37 after a -1.77 in OCT. Going to be a rough winter, right? Next 4 months were +0.78, +0.37, +0.92, and finally a late flip in March to -1.19. Now certainly there can be snowstorms, even big ones, during an NAO that is not NEG, but they don’t happen very often at all. And using a monthly mean misses a possible 7- or 10-day dive into NEG territory.
1981: Starting with SEPT, the monthly nums were -1.45; -1.35; -0.38; -0.02; -0.89 (the only NEG NAO for Jan in one of these years that was lower than -0.5); +1.15; and +1.15 again.
1983: OCT. was +0.65, but -0.98 in NOV, then +0.29, +1.66 (!!!), +0.72, and -0.37.
1988: OCT was -1.08, then -0.34, +0.61, +1.17, +2.00 (!!!!), and +0.76.
1995: -1.38 in NOV (after a + number in OCT), then -1.67 in DEC., -0.12, +1.07, and +0.97.
I think in that list, snow fans would claim 1995, seeing as it lead to ’95-96 winter. Was a weak La Nina year, though, not weak/borderline/almost/maybe-might-be-becoming El Nino like this year.
Euro model has really backed off that pre-Thanksgiving storm today, both on 0Z and 12Z runs.
OCT. 1996 was -0.33, then -0.56, -1.41, -0.49, then the flip (like FEB 2011) to +1.70 and +1.46. One of the very few winters that had a NEG NOV NAO and the negative nums lasted through JAN.
OCT 1997: -1.70 for OCT, then -0.90, -0.96, then the mini flip to +0.39 for JAN, -0.11 for FEB, and +0.87.
NOV 2000: -0.92, then -0.58, +0.25, +0.45, and -1.26.
Finally NOV 2010, the incredibly cold winter with several underperforming snowstorms and even a couple of “busts”. NOV 2010 was a big -1.62, then -1.85, -0.88 (biggest negative JAN of the 9 years looked at …. my comment above about JAN 1982 was incorrect), and FINALLY it was time for the COLC to invoke “Mine eyes have seen the glory … etc.” with a +0.70 for FEB and a +0.61 for MARCH.
All nine of these winters had a flip not later than early FEB to a positive NAO. If the flip was late, then both FEB and MARCH were positive NAOs. If the NAO flipped to positive in DEC or even as late as JAN, then there was a chance of MAR flipping back to a negative NAO.
Based on the above, AND ASSUMING THAT THE OVERALL NOVEMBER 2012 NAO level is at least a bit negative, then there is extremely little chance of this winter of being a repeat of 2009-10. However, there is a good chance (6 of 9) that December will be very cold with a substantially negative NAO. Unlikely (3 of 9) but possible that JAN will have a neg NAO of at least 0.5, and almost no chance of a cold February. At least based on what has happened in the past.
Enlightening, ay??
Mr. Griggs, curious about what Nov. readings were for our snowiest winters, like 85/86; 96 and any others. If you have time to look while your on that page, I’d be in your debt. Not sure but seems like 83 was snowy as well without checking my log
Comment number 25. Senior moment number 617. Yes, KM caught my error. I meany to type snow hater.
If some of the model projections are correct, November might not end up with a hugely negative number on the NAO, as it’s almost back to neutral now and may climb above for several days.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif
Doubt it can get back to neutral or above average, though, considering it started the month very negative.
High of 67 and low of 33 today averaged 50 degrees for Roanoke, which is exactly normal. It broke an 11-day streak of below-normal temperatures. Last time we had a longer streak was 20 days from Dec. 2-21 in the bitterly cold December of 2010.
Interesting that there was also a streak in which 9 of 10 days were below normal to close October and start November a year ago.