Wrapping up the Superstorm Sandy snows; possibly another coastal storm next week
The snow from Superstorm Sandy is winding down now, only a few stray snow showers left in the mountains of West Virginia. Total amounts have ranged up to 34 inches. Kelly Hoge in famed Southwest Virginia ice box Burkes Garden in Tazewell County shared some photos of what the snowstorm looked like Tuesday where she lives. You can see the blowing and drifting — impressive especially since it was a wet snow — in the photo at left, also linked here. Here’s another shot showing piles of plowed snow on the roadside … and yet another linked here of more snow through her windshield. The incredibly heavy snow, caused by tropical moisture being swept by the powerful circulation into the cold air of an Arctic trough, enhanced significantly by upslope northwesterly winds into the mountains, was one of several jaw-dropping aspects to this week’s storm. A remote sensing map of our region shows the estimated snow cover over the mountains to our west and northwest, covering all of West Virginia except its northern and eastern Panhandles. Perhaps even more striking is the North American snow cover map, which shows the Appalachian snows from Sandy far separated from the rest of the snowpack in central and western Canada, and almost no snow anywhere else in the U.S., only a few spots of snow even in the Rockies. Sometimes Canadian snowpack can give us an idea of how well cold air masses from the Arctic will be able to translate southward, and that snowpack is widespread and substantial through the western two-thirds of Canada. Eastern Canada has little snow, a situation stymied even more this week by Sandy rotating in tropical warmth into the extreme northeast U.S. and southeast Canada. The overall snow map suggest Arctic air masses will have solid snowpack to roll over through most of Canada on their way to the U.S., but any cold air moving in from the northeast, such as in a cold air damming situation, may be limited, at least for now, by the lack of snowpack in eastern Canada. Sandy’s remnants appear likely to yet again merge with another weather system, a weak cold front, and that could lead to some additional snow in Canada, perhaps encroaching upon areas not currently snow covered.
Speaking of Sandy, the L’s in southern Canada just north of the Great Lakes on the map linked here show her circulation center. Notice the oddball warm front moving west through southern Canada and the cold front moving north through Maine now — the pattern does look something like the Appalachian Storm centered in Ohio on this map from 1950 that I mentioned last week. We’ll still get some chilly breezes circulating off the former Sandy through the remainder of the week, with highs mostly in the 50s and lows in the 30s, as the sun peeks out a little more here and there on Thursday and may pop out much more by Friday.
There is still a possible storm system to watch early next week moving just south of our region, though with no strong reinforcement of Arctic air, it probably won’t have enough cold to work with for much in the way of frozen precipitation, but rather some chilly rain showers early next week. It remains a possibility that this system will evolve into a nor’easter-type low moving up or just off the Eastern Seaboard — the Climate Prediction Center is a bit concerned about high winds and heavy rain in New England on Election Day and Wednesday next week. Once this system passes and brings in another cold shot (maybe some mountain snow showers), there are growing indications of a pattern change and a return to warmth while the active weather shifts to the central U.S. by the second week of November.
November 1, 2012 - 12:14 AM
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October is now in the books, a dry month in both ROA (only 1.30 inches) and Blacksburg (about 1.7 inches). ROA ended up 0.6 degrees cooler than normal, Blacksburg at -0.7.
Meanwhile, “back at the ranch,” we have 40* and about 85 to 90% cloud cover. I could see one star and the moon faintly through some high clouds. Moon has changed to its cold month position very high in the sky most nights.
We have a disagreement for Roanoke’s high temp for today. WDBJ7 and the NWS have 53*. The Weather Channel has a high of only 50. If it remains cloudy, TWC just might end up being closer.
The GFS did not do a good job with Sandy. A farmer near Pittsburdg tells me that much of the local scale weather he sees is missed GFS, and is filled in by local forecasters who know better by experience. If the GFS can’t predict lake effect cloud cover over his farm (it hardly ever does) how can it be accurate downstream? In weather everything matters.
When a front moves from west to east and the jetstream is behaving
normally, the GFS does OK. But so would a 1960′s forcaster with a pile
of printouts.
We are overdue for some advanced programming on modern computers.
34 up on the ridge this morning with a windy breeze. I had to double check it was Nov. 1 and not the middle to late January. Still looking for Mr. Sun. I saw Mr. Moon and a couple stars last night so hopefully Mr. Sun will be able to return today.
Loved seeing the pictures from Burkes Garden – look at all of that snow! Wow! Thanks Kevin and Kelly for sharing.
I had really been hoping for a better surge of moisture into the area, but the mountains wrung the bulk of it out in very efficient fashion. Even if everything that fell has stuck (and was all snow), we would have gotten maybe 2 inches of snow…our total precipitation from Sandy and the front was a measly 0.28″. That helped October to be the driest month since August 2011 for me (6th driest the past 46 months), with just 1.67″ of precipitation. Our annual deficit has broadened out to just shy of 3.5″ now, with 7 of 10 months this year being below-normal.
This year is on track to be the driest of the past 4, since I started recording precipitation totals for CoCoRaHS. Interesting fact (for where I’m at anyway)…2011 had 4 months with less rain that October of this year (Jan, Feb, June, Aug), but it also had 5 months with over 4″ of precipitation too (March, April, May, July, Sept) with 4 of those having over 6″. 2011 was an incredibly erratic year for precipitation…this year has been more consistent; with just 1 month of more than 4″ of precipitation…it’s just been consistently dry.
Lexingtonian: When Virginia Tech started its meteorology program and an article was written in the campus newspaper, someone commented online that they thought the program was a waste of money because “computers do all our weather forecasting now.”
Two problems with that: (1) computers DON’T do all our weather forecasting, as you note about local meteorologists adjusting in the Pittsburgh area, which also happens here, and (2) even if they did, someone has to program those computers, and your typical computer programming grad isn’t going to know much about how weather patterns behave.
Wow, the European model is really turning next week’s nor’easter into the “Son of Sandy” now — though not much effect for us. Actually does a very similar thing with it, though, in pulling it northwestward into a jet stream trough into New England and Canada.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS168.gif
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS192.gif
As modeled — it add to some coastal erosion problems in the Northeast and spread them farther north. Also, that big snow cover hole up in the Northeast and southeast Canada would fill in rather quickly.
Looks like the model wants to start developing yet another big low a few days after this one, but over the Plains states.
As a former programmer, I admire any efforts to model weather. There is an infinite number of variables to consider, and an infinite number of rules that these variables are applied to, and those rules are continually changing. The computer models really need to work much like robotics that are designed to learn as they go.
We had a great example this week. There has already been discussion about the impact Sandy may have on the rest of the winter, it is an unprecedented storm, so we do not know how or if it may change things. So, we sure can’t expect models to necessarily handle its impact. Nothing beats the experience and knowledge people have, so while the computer models may improve, Kevin and others of you who work with this will always be needed.
Lex…
Lake effect is extremely hard to forecast especially as far downstream as Pittsburgh..if the wind is off by say just 10 degrees its vector multiplies the further you get away from the water source.
Even in upstate NY you’ll see a streamer come off the lake…dump a good
bit of snow in one stretch then a mile northeast or southwest nothing. The guys that get snow say the forecaster was genius..the guy just down the road says he-s a fool. Perfect example is Chicago ..If their wind is down the middle of the lake out of the NNE theyll likely get lake effect if the wind isnt so strong it takes it further inland. Milwaukee on the other hand gets some of it (not as much due to less water fetch) when the wind shifts more ENE.
Kevin@6
“typical computer programming grad isn’t going to know much about how weather patterns behave.”
Which is why really need more programmers with mathematical and meteorological backgrounds. Unfortunatley, folks who know high level math and programming fetch a very high premium in applying those skills in very lucrative areas. We need more of’m in meteorology, not less.
Yeah, I don’t want to disparage computer programmers. My point is that you still need someone with deep meteorology skills to help program the computers so they realistically display weather. Ideally, you have people who can do BOTH … which is some of the direction VT’s program plans to take.
On the flip side, your typical graduate of a traditional meteorology program isn’t going to know much about computer programming.
The two big limitations computer models run up against are resolution and lack of input data.
A computer model isn’t projecting for a point the size of your front yard or even a town, it’s projecting weather over squares of various several miles-wide sizes, depending on the model. As we know, a lot of different weather can happen inside even a 35-mile wide square. Shrinking the size of those grids is one challenge.
Secondly, since there isn’t hard data for every cubic millimeter of the atmosphere, the model has to more or less guess at all the missing variables. When 500 vertical feet of 33 degree temperatures or the difference between 31.9 and 32.1 over thousands of feet can have huge ramifications on a forecast, the more data, the better. We fill in the gaps between observation stations and weather balloon releases with airplane and satellite data, but there is still more of the atmosphere we’re guessing at than measuring. The more data there is and the more is input into the computer models, the better they can be — IF the programs are good and there is enough computing power to crunch all that data in a timely manner.
One interesting thing I read about computer models is that the GFS proves to be much more accurate if it is run with the Euro’s initialization data. So the Euro’s edge may be in its initial input and how it interprets that.
About how computers, weather, video games , and milk helped us get there.
..This discussion reminded me of this,,NPR of a day or 2 ago.
http://m.npr.org/news/Technology/163894669
Joe 607ft @1200 miles WSW
Weather modeling involves not only meteorology and computer programming. At the core is a great deal of applied mathematics, fluid mechanics, and thermodynamics, all of which are the foundation of the engineering disciplines. The weather models are a form of finite element analysis, which is a tool used by engineers to model heat transfer, mass transfer, and stress transfer in a wide range of systems such as pipes, chemical reactors, aircraft wings, and tires. The system (pipe, chemical reactor, airplane wing, tire, etc.) is broken down into many small volume elements and systems of partial differential equations are written to model the flow of heat, mass, or force into and out of each element. Various numerical methods are used to solve these differential equations, which requires a lot of computer power if it is a large system with many volume elements. The atmosphere is an absolutely enormous system to model, which requires some of the most advanced supercomputers on the planet to process the vast amount of data. It is one of the most amazing technological achievements of our time to be able to predict the state of the atmosphere a week from now with the level of accuracy that is now available. Improvements in weather forecasting will be made by increasing the resolution of the models (smaller volume elements, meaning a larger number, requiring more computing power), improving the realism of the model equations (again more computing power for solving more complex equations), and improving the quality and qualtity of input (initialization) data.
I think a degree program to prepare someone for a career in computer weather modeling would have to include a lot of the same math, physics, thermodynamics, and mass and energy transport classes that are part of the Chemical Engineering curriculum. Maybe a joint degree program between Meteorology and Chemical Engineering would make sense.
Weather History
Did you know that…
The early years of the National Weather Service began on this date in 1870. On this day, 24 United States Army Signal Corps observers from around the country took weather reports at precisely the same time. These reports were then sent to Washington, D.C. for further distribution to newspapers.
Speaking of models…
Thursday PM’s 12Z Euro & CMC show a potential for a Miller B type event for next Tuesday night into Wednesday. 12Z GFS not picking it up yet. I just don’t see it happening yet. AO is flattening & the blocking is waning. I’m not worried about the east right now, looks like a huge west coast storm set up for late next weekend (November 10-12).
Thurs. 12Z Euro loop:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html
Thursday 12Z GFS loop:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_12z/avnloopnew.html
last but not least…12Z CMC:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html
You may continue your model discussion. Just to add fuel to the fire over the model discussion, remember that both the CMC & Euro had major software upgrades over the summer.
Quags: There’s lots of blocking on the Euro (this happens to be 0Z). Look at the height anomalies (red colors) wrapping around from Greenland to southeast Canada by Wednesday morning.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro500mbHeightAnomalyNA168.gif
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro500mbHeightAnomalyNA192.gif
Classic Miller B’s (disturbance fires low off East Coast, Hatteras to NYC) usually don’t wrap a lot of moisture into SW Virginia, at least in their coastal phase. This could be a very big deal up the coast, and in interior New England. Not good news after one round of beach erosion already.
Jason: You’re right on all points. Advanced meteorology degrees do incorporate a lot of what you’re talking about, and many meteorologists start undergrad in physics or chemistry before specializing in the atmospheric applications of it.
Kevin,
Fascinating breakdown of computer model forecasting by you, Jason, Quags, and everyone else. I’m learning so much from this blog. Alot is a little over my head but you’re really good at putting it out to us in a way we can understand it. You mentioned how important the weather balloons contribute to the data input and I think I read here last week that the number of launches were doubled leading up to Sandy’s landfall. Just wondering roughly how many sources of ballon sites are used here in our region?
Under typical circumstances, Merle, a weather balloon is released from the National Weather Service office in Blacksburg (actually, across the road at the south end of the Virginia Tech Airport) twice daily at 0Z and 12Z (8 a.m. EDT/7 a.m. EST, 8 p.m. EST/7 p.m. EST). They can be increased regionally or nationally when an unusual or extreme weather event is developing.
I am sorry to interrupt the computer and model discussion, but back to the present. Still another much colder and windier day than normal. Unless there is a “fluke” of a late sfternoon warm-up at RRA, the TWC easily bested both 7 and the NWS. In fact, high so far at RRA (I guess through 4 PM) is only 48. The only time I saw the sun today while in my postal uniform was ….. a half-mile from my house at 4:10 PM on the drive up Sugar Loaf Mountain Road. This is now officially “ridiculous.” Normal high at ROA is still 65* according to Weather Underground (“wunderground.com”).
Uh, Doppler Gal, now even tomorrow is looking a bit dicey/iffy for getting a sunny day in here. I just looked up the TWC hourly forecast for tomorrow, and all it says is “Partly Cloudy” with a high of only 53 — probably only for 10-15 minutes — still more than 10 degrees below normal for the high temp. And you can probably forget about getting to 50* tomorrow with your elevation …. unless the clearing comes in from the west.
It has been a few days, so I thought I would report on what the AO and NAO and PNA oscillations look like. Right off the bat, the GFS Outlooks for the AO are all over the place. The 7-day GFS Outlook shows a rocket takeoff for the AO well into positive territory, all the way to a +2 by Nov. 8th. The 10-day shows a big rise, but not too such a high level, only to +1.something for one day on November 7th. And the 14-day shows the AO just about getting to neutral in about a week for one day only, then edging back down into negative country. Conclusions?? I have no idea what is actually going to happen, other than a rising AO for the next 6 days, and it sounds like the GFS folks don’t know either. Here is (my attempt at) the link:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_mrf.shtml
Shhh – the sun just broke through the clouds up here on the ridge. Ahhhh so nice. Now if we can just get the wind to slow down.
Next batter to the plate … the NAO. There is a better consensus here. Both the 7-day and 10-day GFS NAO Outlooks show the NAO rising back toward the neutral level after its extremely negative reading today of -2.0 or so. Both graphs remain in negative territory, but practically neutral at the end of each of those graphs. The 14-day GFS NAO Outlook for some reason shows today’s level at only -1.0 or so, and that it will decrease to -1.5 by the 5th, then also rise toward neutral by the end of its graph. Conclusion? Big negative NAO will recede over the next 7-14 days, yet AGAIN continuing its multi-month pattern of going negative (although in late September and October it has a pattern of diving deeper each time) and then only staying there for 7-12 days. However, this drop was the longest lasting for many months.
The link: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml
The PNA is looking quite uniform. Slightly negative on all three multi-day GFS PNA Outlooks. Itsy-bitsy dive to -0.5 or so on the 7-day and 10-days only. Not worth linking.
Kevin, I took a look at those colorful maps you posted in comment 18 at 3:23 PM, and was struck by how many purple and dark blue areas (big cold spots) are in and around the USA and southern Canada. I am pretty sure that it never looked like that at any time last winter from Dec. 1 to mid-March. By the way, Kevin, when are you planning to do your winter outlook in detail?
Doug: Was planning to do it 2 weeks ago … but got bumped by Superstorm Sandy. Hopefully will do this Wednesday in my Weather Journal column, as an alternative to the ubiquitous political coverage. I have some weak/near El Nino historical data for Roanoke snowfalls that does show enough of a pattern to lean a certain way.
I just saw two interesting reports. First was by (I think) Dr. Greg Forbes on The Weather Channel. According to him, the power of flowing water is 1000 times greater than the power of flowing air. A tide coming in at 6 MPH has as much force as … this is hard to believe … a wind of 160 MPH!!! He showed damages to several homes and boats at the NJ shore, and showed one house whose entire ground floor on the left side was gone …. he claims by water damage only. Compared it to typical EF 3 tornado damage. Amazing facts.
Brent Watts of 7 reminded viewers to TURN BACK YOUR CLOCKS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. Daylight Savings Time ends. My wife hates this, although both she and I are grateful for the one extra hour of sleep on Sat. night. One good thing for me is that there will be a bit more light when I commute to work in mornings, And the mornings will be a bit warmer for a while than they would be at the same hour under DST.
Sun is out now, and I have a pretty nice view of Roanoke city, just in time for the sun to go down.
There’s been a good deal of dicussion on hurricane/non-hurricane status and the implications for insured homeowners. This is a good explanation of what’s what. If it’s allowed to be posted in here.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/homeowners-hit-sandy-may-save-160551562.html
Good find, WD. I just linked it on Twitter.
I forgot. Brent Watts also said that the rainfall totals year-to-date are all way down for 3 of the 4 primary cities in this region, except for Blacksburg, which has a deficit of only 2 inches. Roanoke’s deficit is 5+ inches, Lychburg’s is well over 8, and fasten your seat belts, Danville’s deficit is just a tiny bit under 12 inches!! Kevin, didn’t both Danville and Lynchburg have sizable deficits in 2011 also?
Kevin, I knew I missed my calling. As a kid I wanted to be a meteorologist. My undergrad was math and computer science, physics was where I did well. Somehow I ended up down a different path altogether. I guess I could go back to school and do it all over again, but I already have enough student loans to take the next 20 years to pay them off.
Kelly…
great pics of the “Garden of Potatoes”
That looks like a neat place for me to visit.
Looks like a good soaking for winter grass.
…(for those that dont know..Mr Burke “planted” a few potatoes
there. or buried some scraps…only to flourish the next year)
Trevar: Similar story for me, replacing “math and computer” with “journalism” … until you got to the last graf. Since journalism has led me to a unique niche in meteorology (and gave me many other interesting experiences, both weather-related and not), I don’t think I’d go back and change it.
The “Garden of Potatoes” would be very different today if Mr. Vanderbilt had had his way … (for those who don’t know, Asheville was the runner-up choice for the Biltmore … Burkes Garden topped the list).
Doug – great analysis of the NAO – enjoy reading your posts about it keeping us all informed. Spares me alot of time in going and searching when I can just read here and click on the links. Awesome.
yes…Im kinda glad Mr Vandy moved on to NC..
ZACH!! Thanks very much, hombre. I sometimes wonder if anyone out there cares a whitt about the NAO and AO stuff. It IS important. This winter looks like another cold one now, unless the NAO and AO somewhat suddenly say, “OK, we’ve been negative about life for just about 6 months now ….. time for a change.” And I do not think that even if a change occurred, that it would lead to a complete reversal to an all positive NAO like last winter ….. just a switch to an NAO and AO that alternates for stretches between positive and negative.
The NAO has not spent even one consecutive week in positive territory since early May, I am quite sure. That is quite a run. It is a wonderful portent for you snow-and-cold lovers. And so was the colorful 500 mb map of North America that Kevin posted this afternoon. Another interesting thing about that map?? Last winter Nome Alaska practically became an iceberg with its coldest winter in many decades. Purple polar vortex sat off the west coast of Alaska often last winter. On this afternoon’s runs? There is extremely WARM air off Alaska’s west coast, again just the opposite of last winter.
If the 12Z Euro verifies, WVa gets another big dump of upslope snow next week — with a more typical pattern of snow squalls/showers/flurries on this side of the Appalachian spine. Check out this Thursday map, with the tight isobars (wind!), blue colors (cold air advection) and the yellow colors moving back into Maine (tropical air again).
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS168.gif
12Z Euro actually starts the storm near the Gulf on Election Day, more like a Miller A — but has no real mechanism to force cold air south, so it wouldn’t be snowy here on the front side (maybe a little bit in very highest elevations).
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS120.gif
Look where 12Z Euro has storm on Wednesday — Hatteras. Talk about a double whammy of beach erosion up and down the East Coast!
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS144.gif
I would say it’s still early, but Euro is the high roller on the craps table right now. Might not be wise to bet against it.
As depicted, this would be another serious East Coast storm … and bring our region cold and snow showery weather for a couple of days.
But then comes this blowtorch 9 days out. That ski season might not get going too early after all — all the yellow and orange would be warm temps returning.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS216.gif
That low track looks like a tornado outbreak in the Upper Midwest, central and southern Plains with a roaring blizzard in the Northern High Plains.
Amazingly high-energy, high amplitude pattern.
The steadily negative NAO has led to 3 consecutive months with very near normal temperatures here in SW Virginia — near normal for October being the average of extreme warm and cold periods. It’s also provided the blocking highs to the north that made Sandy — and possibly two more major U.S. storm systems in the next 10 days — possible.
The tri-cities airport in TN which is our primary weather station is several inches above normal for this year for rainfall. I think the figure they are giving is somewhere between 4 and 6 inches to the good. I know we have had above average moisture here much of the year.
Thanks Kevin for some great coverage lately(and always). I really have appreciated your analysis!
Mike
To answer your question, Doug, about Lynchburg and Danville, each were in 37-38 range on rainfall last year. Danville looks to be near 43 inches for norm, Lynchburg closer to 40. Sites I normally look for this on are down because of Eastern Region NOAA fiber optic cable problem.
If you get a chance to look up at the moon tonight,the bright planet right next to it is Jupiter…
Thanks Kevin for your “Look Ahead” for next week. – comment #41.
Yes, Clarkdocvet – I was just out walking the dogs and was noticing the stars, the moon and was wondering what that was near the moon – Jupiter, huh. Thanks for the info.
Currently 36 with a breeze.
Yeah, thanks, clarkdocvet. I am just happy to finally be able to see stars and the moon again, first time really since Saturday night.
Michael Hoback, I can absolutely believe that your area is above normal for rainfall this year. I can remember many systems that dumped on you, maybe got Wytheville and Pulaski-man (OJ) damp, and left Leo Lady, wd, Doppler Gal, Nurse Dry Garden, Kevin and me dry. And that is why I affectionately and ENVIOUSLY nicknamed you “Rain Hog.”
However, mark my words, next year it will be our turn again, like the summer of 2010.
TWC kicked the butts of NWS and Channel 7 for predicting ROA’s high temp today, which was 49. I can never remember any other year as a letter carrier when I needed to wear wool pants for 4 straight days as early as October 29. I guess I will have to wait until the end of next week to get temps over 60 here again.
Also, Blackwell Chapel Man, another reason that the city in NE Tenn. is so far above normal for rainfall was that incredibly wet system (I am pretty sure it was in late September, because I remember bugging people about it when we drove through that area on our way to Chattanooga and beyond). Rainfall totals were between 5 to 8 inches through NE Tenn. And I think you got 4 or 5 too, didn’t you?
Between the cold, gloomy weather this week and the game tonight, this Hokie has entered the winter doldrums about two months early.
Yeah, HokieTrax, and the other Virginia ACC team is even worse …… much worse. Article in the RT a few days ago stated that UVA is ranked 120th in the nation for pie-making …..er, turnover …. ratio. Out of 120 teams. An incredible -16. The NC State Wolfquack get to feast on them Saturday.
But Virginia Tech has a champion storm chase team.
Hokie Football come on guys
ANd Doug, you think it will persist? Have you noticed any patterns about how long these things to hang on for? I guess that pattern we were in last winter really last from around October – April pretty steadily
Doug,
I agree with zach on your knowledge of the AO, NAO, and the PNA oscillations. I’m sure I’ve read Kevin’s analysis on their tendencies on how they affect winter forecasts. Am I right in assuming that the PNA in the negative phase generally means colder and more unsettled weather for the west and warmer and more stable conditions for the east coast? And the NAO in the negative phase means colder and more unsettled for us here? Not quite sure about how we’re affected by the AO when it’s negative. Could you or Kevin shed some light on this?
No, Zach, I really don’t know how long the NAO will continue its run in negative territory. This definitely calls for another Griggs research project. And you are correct …. the NAO was almost continuously positive from last September through April (with some streaks of negative days during SEPT and OCT), and has been negative since then. The first streak lasted about 8 months, and the current streak has lasted 6 months. So if this streak goes to 8 months, it would end about early January. But what happened with the previous streak means next to nothing.
MEANWHILE, where did all these clouds come from?!?! It was clear last night. Now it is 46* here and completely socked in again, although I do have long-range visibility. This is my long weekend and I am grateful that it is going to be a mostly dry one, but POOH on the continued very cool temps!!
And no one would even talk to Mr. Vanderbilt’s people when they came to the Garden. We were unfriendly and clannish according to the local legend.
“But Virginia Tech has a champion storm chase team”….I second that motion!