Another murky wintry system past, maybe 2 more to come next week
Well here’s my slightly snow-dusted deck from this morning. It snowed for almost an hour where I live in southern Roanoke County, those snow-globe-type big flakes, very picturesque to watch. But not much about this system really did what was expected, at least in regards to wintry precipitation locally. Milder air aloft kept a lot of the precipitation as rain, freezing rain and sleet. Then, it finally did cold enough through the atmosphere to snow — in Henry, Franklin and Bedford counties, entirely EAST of the winter weather advisory area. Some spots there got up to half an inch. Then there was this little backside splotchy patch of sleet and snow that dusted some parts of the Roanoke and New River valleys this morning. It was a disorganized, borderline storm system right up to the end, at one point including a dry slot covering most of Virginia west of Richmond, much of that territory in northern Virginia having been forecast to get up to 4 inches of snow. It will become better organized rapidly offshore later today, and that will pull some more gusty northwest winds into our area, something we seem to be able to count on with regularity in Southwest Virginia winters, along with upslope-produced snow showers, mostly in West Virginia where they got some snow from the initial storm.
Looking ahead, it’s more of the same this coming week, with two more potentially murky storm systems on New Year’s Eve/New Year’s Day — to send this bizarre weather year out — and then, perhaps, Thursday or so, as upper-level energy ejects out of the Southwest. If you’re looking for these possible storm systems (their existence is even murky) to either be unambiguously rain or snow a couple of days out (or a couple of hours out, or a couple hours after it starts), forget it. Cold air will be lurking, and the freezing line in various low to mid layers of the atmosphere will very likely be near or right smack through Southwest Virginia, again.
December 29, 2012 - 9:01 AM
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After last night’s BUST, it just seemed appropriate to pop my poem in again from last year…..slightly revised.
Twas late in December,
and all through the valley,
not a snow storm was coming.
Not even a Miller B.
The snow lovers were nestled
all snug in their beds
with only snow memories
alive in their heads.
El Nino had not come.
The NAO was no help.
The jet stream would not bend.
Arctic air was not felt.
Would the new year be better?
Would the snow finally fall?
If the winter gets whiter,
would it please one and all?
Kevin, was the huge blowhole in Va. caused by the jet streams being north and south of us instead of getting together?
Back home in Goochland, Co. Had a little sleet shower around 4 this morning but just plain ol’ rain and 36.
Guess the Snow Contest is still intact. No 1″ snow in the Star City yet.
0-2 is not a good start to the season. I know how Andy Reid feels now.
Snowing at work in Woodlawn. Go figure.
Kevin, I have family coming to Pulaski next weekend for a late Christmas. Do either of the two systems you mention have the potential to produce a big-un?
Kevin, what do you think is the overall outlook for next 6 weeks of winter for the Roanoke Valley. I have lived in Roanoke all of my life which is 50 years now, and to me January and the first 2 weeks of February is the sweet spot for snow in the valley if it is going to happen.
Rain in Northern Giles co. Roads good.
Glad it’s you guys.
Now I remember why I moved down to the Carolina coast 40 some years ago.
Have fun but do be careful.
Still waiting for all that cold air from the Siberian snow pack! Quags seems to think this winter is going to be a bust like I have been saying. Just seems Virginia can no longer receive those very cold and snowy winters of yesteryear! Doesn’t seem like we can get any type of moisture around here either, lets get ready for another dry and Hot as Hades Summer!
LOL, DT is on Facebook talking up a snowstorm for mid week! Gotta give it to him, he wont give up! He might get one storm correct by March.
Well we had cold and snowy just 3 years ago and cold without snowy just 2 years ago, so yesteryear wasn’t all that long ago. I still expect some very cold weather to develop in January and/or February, but not sure yet if that will mean snowy for Virginia. January/February has always been when I thought this winter would peak for cold, so I’m not terribly surprised by not having it in December — except maybe for just how truly warm the first 3 weeks were.
WD: Definitely the two low centers were a factor in that. All along, it was uncertain how those would interact with each other. I haven’t analyzed it in depth yet, but it appears both of those centers might have been stronger than expected, and that could have pulled more warm moist air in aloft. It also may have pulled the storm more into two parts than being just more of an elongated general area of precpitation with two weak centers. Again, a bit of speculation there without having looked back at it yet.
Lots of melting going on and now the wind is picking up.
I guess I somewhat understand what Jared was referring to. I have lived my entire life in Southwest VA between Roanoke and Washington Co and it just seems to me that I can remember more subzero temps than we have now. It may be my mind highlighting those events but it seems to hardly ever get near zero or let alone below. My grandmother used to tell me how the North Fork of the Holston used to freeze solid enough to take a horse and wagon across and that blocks of ice were cut out and kept until summer in the cellars and dairy.
I can almost feel the disappointment of Va snow fans all the way up here in Pa (half hour north east of Harrisburg). We’re at the in-laws where we have 4 inches or so and its still coming. I would be one of the disappointed were I at home in Rustburg.
Mr. Griggs, wanted to check on your pup. If memory serves Blondie is a Golden Retriever. I posted a couple pics of my own 4 year old Golden on Quagmires site. Here under “photos” tab “winter scenes.” thought you would appreciate them. IMO Goldens are the best dogs, particularly with small children (we have a 3 yr old boy). Anyway, Hope Blondies is up and running after those tennis balls soon.
Mr. Griggs, wanted to check on your pup. If memory serves Blondie is a Golden Retriever. I posted a couple pics of my own 4 year old Golden on Quagmires site. Here under “photos” tab “winter scenes.” thought you would appreciate them. IMO Goldens are the best dogs, particularly with small children (we have a 3 yr old boy). Anyway, hope Blondie is up and running after those tennis balls soon.
Michael: Roanoke hasnt been below zero since 1996, so that thought definitely has some statistical backing even here in our backyard up this way.
The cold will probably cycle back around in about 20 years! Then I will be in my mid 50s and the daughter will be full grown. Snow will be only good to look at then since I will be an old fart and my daughter will be fully grown. Oh well!
We moved to the Chapel from Glade Spring in 2001 and one time we had 3 below because I remember it well – I had to take my sweetie to the hospital with intestinal flu. That was sometime in the early 2000′s and I had just put my heat pump in (before the wood stoves) and the house would just not get comfortable. That is when I began to question the heat pumps. Then in 2008 we had tremendous winds and the Old Glade Presbyterian sanctuary collapsed (not the tornado) and the temps got down to near 0 but not below. It seems when I was in college at Emory and Henry late 70′s and early 80′s and the years after, we had some below 0 on a regular basis but I do not have the statistics to back that up. Oh by the way, we are still under a WWA and snow showers are supposed to start this evening. Spitting snow pellets now.
38*. A few snow showers slidin along the face of Bent Mt. in the last hour or so. Don’t see anything showing up back at the radar site tho.
Michael…
That frozen ice would have been a big
boon to the economy…and hurt the New England
folks some im guessing.
In the old days thats how Va Plantations
got their ice for the summers. They’d ship
them from the Boston area down the Atlantic Coast (and up the James)
during the spring and summer..(blocks covered in sawdust)
and they would be stored underground. Wealthy people would
have ice most of the summer.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frederic_Tudor
Kevin, I have family coming to Pulaski next weekend for a late Christmas. Do either of the two systems you mention have the potential to produce much snow?
The setup for next week is favorable. The cold air *looks* to be there. The past 3 storms – - the Polar Vortex, has been set up over Central Canada and the Central United States. Only leftover coldair in the East – - which means snow is HARD to come by – - even if you get a favorable track – - IE last night. Even with the past 2 storms, haven’t had a big high to the North
If **IF** the models are right in forecasting the PV shifting to the Hudson Bay area – - this will make any setup MUCH more favorable – - since we have the cold air we will truly need. That being said – - we have to have the moisture. The first chance will come late next week. Not sure exactly how that one plays out, but usually the cold air hangs around a little while so I’d say we get a couple shots at it before it goes away.
Also – - the pattern is going splitflow – - with a much more active southern jet — and a Pacific Jet that is not so overpowering = good for storm chances.
Mr French for some reason your comment seems to suggest that anyone in their middle 50s is an old fart and I would take objection to that since my age is way over that. Just in jest you know. We are now in no power land for the last several hours, temp 38 and wind is pretty brisk with a few snow flurries.
Now I don’t comment on here a ton, but the past couple weeks I’ve been hearing about this DT guy and it sounds like he is a load of crap. But who is he??
I’m an old fart an I’m 42.
Newman: I will second Zach’s comment. The broad pattern is much more favorable next week for winter storms. But of course that doesn’t mean the individual systems are going to be timed or placed just so to take advantage of that. It’ll be touch and go watching each individual system as it develops/approaches again — and nowcasting as it moves in. I certainly wouldn’t cancel anything, just keep an eye on it.
I am 53 and I am such an old fart I no longer stink. My wife may not agree.
To make this comment weather related, Morristown is still predicting 2″ of snow county wide and 4″ over 4000 feet. WE WILL SEE! Upslope is always hard to call.
DT = Dave Tolleris, a private meteorologist based in Richmond who operates a company and website called WxRisk. He does a lot of forecasting for various business interests.
I won’t dig too deeply into the DT debate, but I will say that he is usually well ahead of the game in identifying potential storm systems in rather specific regions of the country 7-14 days out. Good at identifying large-scale patterns and the potential implications of those. I think it’s some of his insistent claims on short-term forecasts that don’t pan out, particularly relating to Eastern U.S. winter storms, that stir controversy.
I will add that I do not know him personally at all, have heard him speak once, and traded emails/social media on a handful of occasions. From the one talk he gave I can tell you he is deeply knowledgeable and passionate about meteorology.
That’s as far as I will go into the DT discussion.
Kevin, I am making my way through the previous thread. There was definitely some “WAGOT,” don’t you think? I wonder if the Burger King in Pearisburg has someone on the roof …. or maybe someone has already commented on that.
How did the tire chains work out today?
I am DYING of laughter right now!! Jumpin’ Jared Flash, he’s a GAS-GAS-GAS!!! Comment 85 on this morning’s thread at 9:02!! Hysterical. As the singer of Jumpin’ Jack Flash (Mick Jagger, of course) also sang, “You can’t always get what you want …..etc.”, but clearly, Greene County guy, you cannot even get what you need. I sure do hope that you get a real snow fix of at least 5 inches at some point this winter, or your crying will produce enough tears to remedy this drought all by your lonesome.
JJF, please keep up the comments!! Your humor is a rare bright spot in my life right now!
Now THIS is the way great stories get started!!
A weather spirit of sorts that lives in the attic
of the Burger King in Pearisburg at night.
and catches Gar out of the New River by day.
It has legs…
Or scales.
Or Moos.
DC, if you care to mail me what you got, I’d love to see them.
You guys are just too, too silly talking about Burger King and the weather spirit in the attic.
Randy of Cahas Mt. – Hope you get power back soon.
You young whipper snappers and age! LOL!
Wow, people are asking for me! First off, the Little Blonde Man (FYI, that is a takeoff of one of my favorite ancient movies, Little Big Man with Dustin Hoffman) is still with us, lying on our sofa. I petted him softly when I got home, and noticed that even his head is much bonier that it ever was.
Yes, I’m in DC, Golden Retrievers are nearly always stupendous “people dogs.” Both of ours have been mixed-breed Goldens, not pedigrees. If you or anyone loves dogs, you might try a youtube video produced by “Dogs 101.” I think a search of Dogs 101 Golden Retrievers would locate it. It is one of my youtube favorites.
wd, I nearly had a heart attack when I arrived at the post office about 7 AM. Somebody in postal management had a severe “smart attack” and decided to leave the chains off of our trucks. And they were not needed at all.
Jared, if you think a guy in his mid-50s is “an old fart,” try 61. Or older. Anyone hear the following expression? “Old generals never die ….. they just fade away.” ?? Well, what you posted about farts reminded me of the following: “Old fishermen never die …. they just smell that way.”
Pearisburg…home of the Mysterious Big Fish Sandwich
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-yycqrumK7_U/T9a1PYg6PLI/AAAAAAAACGw/KKPgaZHdfvc/s1600/20120613+Burger+King+Big+Fish+Sandwich.JPG
Snow lovers, you may not want to read this…. you may be over-envious. My sister Susie of Ipswich, MASS sent me an e-mail with a link to a 4-minute video by a meteorologist for the cable news network NECN. Winter has finally arrived in earnest to eastern Mass and New England in general.
The NWS forecast for Danvers, MASS, which is north of Boston but not on the coast: Tonight, 4-8 inches of snow, chance of precip 100%, low 27, NE winds of 10-17 shifting to NW after midnight.
Sunday: clearing, high of 30, NW winds 14-18, gusts to 32. Good luck, Miami Dolphins, and welcome to Foxboro tomorrow!! Foxboro may get even a bit MORE snow than Danvers.
Sunday night: Clear, low of 15, winds 9-15, gusts to 32.
Monday: Increasing clouds, 29.
Monday night: 20% chance of snow showers, low of 24, west wind of 11.
Tuesday: again a 20% chance of snow showers, (heat wave) high of 31.
Tuesday night: Partly cloudy and “cool,” low of 8.
Wednesday: Sunny, 27.
Wed. night: PC, again a cool low of 8.
Thursday: Sunny, high of 23.
Thursday night: low of 5.
Friday: Sunny, high of 22. Etc.
Looks like the Siberian snow cover is finally going to be affecting New England, at least.
joe, have you been dipping into the mushrooms again? LOl What inspired you to mention: A. gar; B. Scales; and C. Moos??
Reporting from Columbus after a day of driving. Like a fairy land near Ghent WV and slushy roads. Then tapered off to almost no snow cover. Then it started back in OH gradually getting thicker as we drove northwest to Columbus. At least 8″ where my son lives. We had some major shoveling to do to get to the door of his place. Roads were good our whole trip until his side street which has not yet seen a plow.
Sorry, to all the old farts out there! Just got back from Mountain Lake, had to get my snow fix. Me and dad rode up Mountain Lake and back down the other side to White Rocks then down Big Stony , pretty much made a big circle back around to Pembroke. Looked to be 3-4 inches on the north side of the mountain. Truck indicated temperature to be 28. When will more information be out for mid week storm?
I am 53 and I am such an old fart I no longer stink.–Comment by Michael Hoback
I resemble that remark.
My snow didn;t deliver today and I’m mighty happy…BURP…I got my winter warm fuzzies from some spiced rum and walks down memory lane…BURP…while I reminisce…maybe we can talk Jared off that Burger King roof top. Jared, I hear we have a WHOPPER of a storm coming next week…hehehe!!
hey, braydenofbtown, I agree just about completely with Kevin’s comments about DT. The guy is absolutely brilliant lots of times in identifying long-term trends. He had an epic early call (I think it was in late November 2011) about how last winter would be a warm one, even though just about everybody else (except Kevin, who thought that it would be close to normal for temps, maybe a bit cool) thought that it would be a cold snowy one. He taught us amateurs about something that I had never heard of before, polar vortex (and the plural, “polar vortices”). He explained that “all” the polar vortices were either in Siberia, eastern Europe, or west of Alaska. And that until they migrated to being over Canada (which never happened last winter), the Midwest and the East Coast would generally be quite a bit warmer than normal. Which is exactly what happened.
But I cannot tell you how many times he has predicted large snowfalls for western Virginia and been wrong. He was mentioning 4-8 inches for this storm, although I think it was mostly for the Virginia counties that border WV. It is an amazing paradox in my opinion, how someone that fabulous at predicting weather in the distant future can be so badly wrong sometimes about snowstorms. And he can be very passionate, even unprofessional at times IMO, when making statements about other predictions and forecasters.
Short story on New Year’s Eve/New Year’s Day system: A flat, progressive wave moving east through the southern U.S. throwing moisture on top of cold air. GFS paints the freezing line a mile up — the very rough divider between rain and snow — right smack through Southwest Virginia. Also shows the moisture barely getting to SW Virginia. So another borderline system. Not looking for a major winter storm, but possibly another light rain/freezing rain/sleet/snow situation, similar to the last two.
Pattern definitely has colder look this coming week.
Hey Kevin, is that the same storm that DT keeps talking about in the Jan. 2-3-4 period, or are there two potential events next week?
That is a second event, Roa10. It’s more iffy — but has more potential to be a bigger system, if it does in fact develop. Euro hasn’t been consistently showing it, so I’m hesitant to jump on it just yet, given the Euro’s recent strong track record. That said, the pattern looks to be conducive on many fronts for a POSSIBLE winter storm to develop in the Southeast/Gulf Coast region around Thursday or so.
I would say the first system is another light rain/ice/snow borderline situation, while the second would be either a fairly big winter storm system or non-existent/out to sea.
These systems really making your snow-meter prediction hard, aren’t they, Kevin?
Yes, Travis. Lost on Blacksburg this week. Next week will be toughest yet, because of a borderline first system and iffy second system.
Today DT gave a simple explanation for why his confidence is stronger for the upcoming storms based on ensembles instead of individual model runs. Have we been getting our hopes up for these storms based on individual model runs when the ensembles did not agree?
Better go “all-in” on the snow meter for next week Kevin. It’s time to get this winter jump started. (and the manager at Burger King wants everyone off his roof)
I haven’t really looked at the ensembles yet. Ensembles are, essentially, repeated running of the same model with the same data and slightly tweaked variables to produce several (typically 12) different solutions. Forecasters sometimes check the ensembles to see how many of them are similar or variant to the operational run, the main run of the model. Confidence grows the more ensembles show a particular solution … but, again, even a majority of ensembles showing something is not a guarantee it will happen. An “ensemble mean” solution is also produced that shows an average of the ensembles, and that solution often differs somewhat from the operational run.
As for recent storms, last night’s was the first one that carried with it fairly widespread (though not unanimous) forecasts of at least a couple inches of snow locally, so there hasn’t been much to hope for in recent storms, yet. And the storm did happen, it just didn’t happen in the way many expected, locally.
George: It’ll be somewhere between 4 and 8 for both sites. Won’t be 0-3 or 9-10. That’s all I will reveal right now.
Where does any creativity come from Doug…
Im out of the box as much as in.
Gar…New River…
Scales…see previous…
Moos..what you hear in the pastures
over your head as you paddle down the New.
(Not to mention the prevailing western BK menu)
…Though admittedly I may not exactly have
found my target audience.
It’s not just you, Southwest Virginia snow lovers. Boston’s temperature has jumped up from 32 to 37 in the last 3 hours with a warm front off the ocean, and snow has changed to rain. But there isn’t a hint of rain in Boston’s official forecast — 5 to 9 inches of snow expected.
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=box&FcstType=text&zmx=1&zmy=1&map.x=199&map.y=119&site=BOX
It’s local features like this that can make or break snow forecasts, even if all the big-picture meteorology is right.
Got power back on light snow showers and 33 outside. Pretty stiff breezes now as well. Hopefully no more power outages for a while. D.C. Hope your power stays on as well
Not to rub salt in a “snow wound” but last night’s/morning system that was a bust for you in SW VA has dumped another 5+” on top of the 9″ we got Wed. PM/Thurs up here in Glenmont NY. Headed back home tomorrow and hope to bring back some snow mojo.
Just left the in-laws in SWCO and they were having what I would call a little more than just flurries. Nothing but a stray flurry here in SW City.
Bryan, what section of SW County were you in? Reason I ask is that I made a run to the grocery store at the corner of Colonial Ave and Brambleton about 7:45 and on Roselawn Avenue (which connects Sugar Loaf Mountain Road with Brambleton Avenue) I saw steady lonely snowflakes. Not what I would call flurries, but then again I have a New England standard for that. Anyway, they were such tiny flakes that they didn’t even make the windshield wet or the road moist. Practically virga. What you saw must have been heavier. Do your “outlaws” live up Bent Mountain Road area? Or near the summit of Sugar Loaf Mountain?
I am glad that you got your ‘lectricity back on, Randy. Hope that it stays on.
Doug,
We were in Fairway Estates behind Hidden Valley CC. It was very strange. Once we got past LewisGale, on our way back to the city, there was nothing.
I’m from Cleveland, so I too have high standards of snow.
Typical streaky snow showers on northwest winds.
I remember one time when my wife and I lived in apartments near Buck Mountain Road, and a morning snow squall brought whiteout conditions and was accumulating. She drove on to work through it and called me from Electric Road 2 miles away: “The sun is out here!”
While yesterday was a fizzle here in our fair valley, driving from New York city was another story this morning. Leaving Long Island at 5:30 a.m it was cloudy and 33. Crossing NJ on 80 sleet started and the temp started to drop. From there, trough PA to 81 and down to Hagerstown the temp stayed around 29, snow was moderate/heavy and roads were slushy. I almost got taken out by a teen who spun out in a Sheetz parking lot. After Hagerstown the temp started back up, the snow turned to sleet to rain and by Winchester the clouds lifted. When we arrived home at 3:15 p.m. the temp was 46, the day was partly sunny and no snow. It was quite an interesting journey.
I went for a hike up on the AT this afternoon (at 311/McAfee Knob) and boy was it cold! There was still snow up there and the views were beautiful! The sun peeked out every once and a while but the wind was brutal. I enjoyed it nevertheless, even if I didn’t get my snow down home. Here’s a pic I took of Ft. Lewis Mountain
http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y28/ladyeowynn/hike/file-3.jpg
Now…I’m going to bet that next week, sometime in between January 6 and January 13 you all here in the NRV/RV will have a massively wonderful snow storm. Why? Because I will be in Florida. =P
Kevin or others may be able to document/authenticate some weather experiences of my younger years: About 1950, VDoT bringing in huge snowblower machines to clear drifts several feet deep on the old road between Rural Retreat and Cedar Springs, now called Cedar Springs Road; about 1959-60 heavy snows on the same day of the week for 5 or 6 weeks in Grayson County packing up on the roads because VDoT did not have the resources to remove, The Roanoke Times sent Ben Beagle in to do the story; about 1962, probably January or February, Washington County, VA eighteen below zero for couple of days.