A few winter scenes — will there be more to start the new year?
For Sunday, expect a cold, blustery day, with temperatures not making out of the 30s most places in Southwest Virginia as a shot of Arctic air is rotated in behind the departing storm off the Northeast coast. There may be a few more upslope-produced snow flurries and showers moving over from West Virginia overnight and early Sunday morning. I wouldn’t rule out a skiff in a few spots mostly west of Roanoke.
It hasn’t turned out entirely like almost anybody wants this past week in Southwest Virginia, but winter has certainly begun to show its hand, after three toasty weeks to start December. Frequent blog commenter Doppler Carol has allowed me to share several photos from Floyd County, where both the beauty and mayhem of winter weather has struck this week with Wednesday’s power-crippling ice storm (and a little more ice/snow on Saturday morning, too). The inset shot at left, shown larger here, displays the cold canvas of both a winter sky and landscape. There was lots of ice in Floyd County this week, where the Blue Ridge forms an elevated plateau for many miles, rather than the sharp, narrow ridgelines that surround the Roanoke Valley. Linked are a foggy shot of icy woods, sharp icicles on a clothesline post against a blue sky, and icicles adorning a bird house. But the ice also had a destructive side, as this image speaks, and to which the thousands who lost power for at least some period of time can attest. HokieTrax also shared an image from Blacksburg that seems appropriate for her nickname — bird tracks on Saturday morning’s light skiff of snow. It doesn’t take a blizzard to coax the beauty, or the beast, out of winter.
Summary: A pool of extremely cold air is developing over Hudson Bay during the next week that likely will lead to some bouts of colder temperatures in days and weeks to come. The coming week will be seasonably cold with two possible storm systems affecting Southwest Virginia. The first may produce rain, freezing rain, sleet, snow or a mixture of these, for New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. The second system is even more iffy, but there is some potential for a larger storm system forming near the Gulf Coast or Southeast and affecting the Eastern U.S. late in the week.
Discussion: There is a development taking shape in the next week that could have significant implications on the course of winter in January. The strongest polar vortex, or deep swirl of extremely cold air, is setting up shop in the Hudson Bay region of Canada over the next several days. The 12Z European model for next Saturday clearly depicts this, with bring pink and purple colors signalling where the coldest air in the world will be residing, likely for several days, perhaps some weeks. The polar vortex in Hudson Bay doesn’t mean that it will be cold in Southwest Virginia every single day of its presence, but it does mean that a huge source of cold air is available to be tapped with almost any storm system that makes its way through the East. And it is very possible that some of the more extreme Arctic air will ooze southward from this polar vortex at some point in January. The coming week looks to be seasonably cold to somewhat below normal, for the most part. (Climate normals for the first week of January are mid 40s highs, upper 20s lows at Roanoke; low 40s highs, low 20s lows at Blacksburg.) There are some other features that may make the next week intriguing for winter fans, including high pressure building across the West (the Pacific-North America positive pattern, or PNA+, that often leads to colder air and increased of storm systems in the East) and a subtropical flow undercutting that ridge of high pressure that will scoot some storm systems across the South. The first arrives New Year’s Eve/New Year’s Day, likely throwing some Gulf of Mexico moisture into cold air to the north. Early forecast models show us on the borderline, once again, of freezing temperatures and also on the northern edge of the moisture flow, but of course all this is subject to change. From this distance, rain, freezing rain, sleet or snow, or a mixture of these, are possible come time for 2012 to roll into 2013. A second disturbance late in the week (about Thursday) has some chance of developing a larger storm system over the Gulf Coast or Southeast, which could threaten a larger winter storm in parts of the East, IF it develops and doesn’t run quickly out to sea. So, after two wintry mix systems this past week, one that was a little colder than expected and one that was a little warmer than expected, we may be fighting the same battles with forecasts again in the week ahead.
December 29, 2012 - 8:58 PM
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Love the photos Doppler Carol!
Thanks for stopping by, KP!
Oops…meant to post this on the most current thread. And yes, I agree with Kathryn, the photos are great Doppler Carol and Hokie Trax!
I went for a hike up on the AT this afternoon (at 311/McAfee Knob) and boy was it cold! There was still snow up there and the views were beautiful! The sun peeked out every once and a while but the wind was brutal. I enjoyed it nevertheless, even if I didn’t get my snow down home. Here’s a pic I took of Ft. Lewis Mountain
http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y28/ladyeowynn/hike/file-3.jpg
Now…I’m going to bet that next week, sometime in between January 6 and January 13 you all here in the NRV/RV will have a massively wonderful snow storm. Why? Because I will be in Florida. =P
Comment by Tina B in Montgomery Co — December 29, 2012 @ 10:15 pm
Nice shot Tina B. I hope to get out for some more winter hiking soon.
Tina – - that’s a COOL pic. Very nice.
Tina B – a woman of my own heart willing to do winter hiking! There is something beautiful and honest about the woods in winter. Loved the mountain photo. I hope the weather allows for the Shenandoah cabin trip my friend and I are planning for next weekend. Nice photos DC and glad the power is still on.
HokieTrax…I agree. Winter hiking is the best, especially when there is snow on the ground. It is so quiet and calm.
I just looked out and that burst of snow doesn’t seem to be giving us anything.
Another thing about winter hiking is the views that don’t exist in summer with the leaves on trees. You can look deep into the woods and see things hidden during summer, and vistas pop out that are just walls of green at other times of the year.
I did get a short hike in on the AT near Dragons Tooth last Sunday — not to the Tooth itself, but some ridges a little lower.
On the last thread I pointed out Boston went from snow to rain unexpectedly tonight due to a coastal warm front. It’s back to snow there after 4 hours of rain. Went from 32 to 37 back to 30 as winds made a subtle turn from NE off the unusually warm ocean waters to N from inland.
http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KBOS.html
Doppler Carol- Thank you for sharing the photos of the ice storm you recently experienced. I am sorry you and others were without power for so long. The icy scenes were amazing, however. I was trying to imagine from your descriptions on the blog what it must have looked like. What a treat to now “see” what you were describing!
Tina B- Spectacular photo of winter “trying” to make its way into the valleys!
Enjoyed the pictures from Carol and Tina. Still waiting on our 2″ of snow. It has snowed some and winds are howling. In the same thread as before, even the upslope events and cold fronts just do not have the punch this year. The winds have been noticeable but even if it gets cold it does not hold. Maybe we are priming the pump for the big un.
Just updated website Blog about my timid skepticism that things are not quite right with next week’s model runs…then the Sunday 0Z GFS operational run comes out and is awful. Blow Torch next week. Really?
Come on man…you would have thought I did the GFS myself after what I posted. That bad Karma is going to catch up with me someday. But smile! It is the GFS and it’s a great model this far out…lol!
P.S. Mayor of D’ville, love your pix of the winter scene! Would love to add it to the photos page at QWC.
and Tina B as well…good night all!
I saw that model run, Quagmire. Doesn’t seem to make sense on a lot of points. It’s the GFS a week out.
I just looked at the Saturday polar view map, and I can see where the start of the Canadian polar vortex is starting to appear. I am going to attempt the link: http://www.raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro500mbHGHTNH000.gif
YAY!!! Griggsy got a link to work! Just east of the NE corner of Manitoba is a purple dot, with the number 510 underneath it. As polar vortices go, that is not all that impressive …. yet. But if in fact it grows like the model indicates in the picture at the top of this thread, we could be in store for a true Arctic outbreak after the 6th or 7th. Maybe?
And by looking at the polar view map, you can see the first Pacific ridge in a long time there, too, with green colors extending all the way up (i.e., “north”) the Rockies to the southern edge of British Columbia.
Kevin, just so you know, the reason Roanoke didn’t really get hit with anything this weekend is because I was back in town with my mobile portable dry slot technology installed in my left elbow. (apparently it snowed up here a bit, at least up on Afton Mountain)
I’m back home as of 6am today, which means you guys can now receive snow again in Roanoke
Have an AWESOME NEW YEARS!!!
Maybe an inch or two of snow in Burke’s Garden. Quite warm yesterday at 32 to 34 all day.
Tina – loved your picture of the mountains and that is what it was like around here yesterday. Hokie Trax, I loved your picture of the tracks. Everyone, thank you for your comments about the pictures.
21, the wind is howling with the sun coming up over the ridge. Brrrr!
28 degrees this morning with gusty winds but bright sunshine. The power was only off about 5 hours or so not as bad as last summer. Really enjoyed looking at pictures the scenes are beautiful . Mr. Griggs glad your BlondieBoy is home. This coming week may be like this past week weather wise
I would luv full res copies of those wintry shots. . . i use them on my desktop for decoration. . .
Thanks, R.O. The dog is still struggling big time. Last night his rear legs went on a “work stoppage,” so I had to carry him outside and back in. But he is eating some and drinking some, just not close to the levels he needs to in order to make a recovery. At least he is eating his meds.
For those of you who have gone through the dying dog experience, you know that it is hard to reconcile what the pooch is like now compared to the young dog who would eat just about ANYTHING EDIBLE that happened to find its way to within his reach.
WARNING: Weather comment. It was 28* here at 8 AM.
Kelly, thanks for checking in from the B. Garden. What?!?! You mean to say that you didn’t get the 4-8 inches that DT was calling for? I bet your high today will not get above 34 or 35.
LOL, now DT is trying to back off his cold January and February! I think he needs to go work for the weather channel.
Since it’s fairly quite weatherwise, I’ll get back to my last and final rant of “offical weather sites”. When the NWS decided that offical records were needed around the country, airports were the logical choice, mainly cause they already had instrutments capable of recording the various data and personnel capable of reading them already in place. That held true til maybe 10 years or so ago. Now is a good time to fix what ails the current system. Also, economic reasons are at play here. Roanoke markets itself as a temperate climate. DTI, Bureau of Tourism, Center in the Square all has much to gain by having offical records read high in the winter and moderate in the summer due to advertising the valley as a great place to live, work, travel and so forth. Also a great incentive in recruiting new business. Works great til the folks that move here and head to hills to buy a house discovers there are hills in these parts and they also have 3″/6″ of ice and snow on them while downtown only has slush, if that. If this area had any winter sports that attracred visitors, RRA and WDBJ would has been fired/changed/moved to a representive location or a collective average of data issued long ago. The argument for an offical collection site is totally outdated and has been for awhile. Reasons are many and some are listed below. With the advance in electronics, some PWS’s are equal to anything RRA has. A quick count lists 35 for our reporting area alone and cover all of Roanoke County and many close by areas as well. We have q
It’s amazing that I posted a blog about how I was getting skeptical about the January outlook. Lo and behold…someone else is getting skeptical too…
https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk#!/notes/wxriskcom/brief-comments-on-0z-sunday-dec-30-model-runs-and-jan-2-3-4/463721063675157
FYI, the 12Z Sunday GFS Op run is not good news either.
Since it’s fairly quite weatherwise, I’ll get back to my last and final rant of “offical weather sites”. When the NWS decided that offical records were needed around the country, airports were the logical choice, mainly cause they already had instrutments capable of recording the various data and personnel capable of reading them already in place. That held true til maybe 10 years or so ago. Now is a good time to fix what ails the current system. Also, economic reasons are at play here. Roanoke markets itself as a temperate climate. DTI, Bureau of Tourism, Center in the Square all has much to gain by having offical records read high in the winter and moderate in the summer due to advertising the valley as a great place to live, work, travel and so forth. Also a great incentive in recruiting new business. Works great til the folks that move here and head to hills to buy a house discovers there are hills in these parts and they also have 3″/6″ of ice and snow on them while downtown only has slush, if that. If this area had any winter sports that attracred visitors, RRA and WDBJ would has been fired/changed/moved to a representive location or a collective average of data issued long ago. The argument for an offical collection site is totally outdated and has been for awhile. Reasons are many and some are listed below. With the advance in electronics, some PWS’s are equal to anything RRA has. A quick count lists 35 for our reporting area alone and cover all of Roanoke County and many close by areas as well. We have trained weather spotters trained by NWS personnel. We have VDOT sites. We have ifows, and afaws[I think that's the name. We have cocorahs sites, again trained and promoted by NWS personne. So you see folks, there are resourses available to give the area more accurate information than the the heat trap at the airport. Alot has changed in the last 25 years that has led to our present not only being inaccurate but obsolete. Brik and mortar, concrete, paving all have led to readings that have queered the readings that are accepted as accurate. Time for a major change in how things are done folks. Oh, on a final note, there will be somebody that will offer a rebuttal to this post. Have at it. However the " status of offical record Keeping"should not be mentioned]. WHY!!! Read the link below and ponder how offical the present system has been.
http://www.roanoke.com/weather/wb/238744
Disregard post 24 since a fat finger did something I didn’t rell it to do. 25 contains the entire rant.
Looks like the storm this week may be off the board and the overall pattern looks pretty depressing for snow lovers in the future. Do you think you’ll have to lower your snowfall expectations for the season for Roanoke?
12z GFS ensembles look colder and more north for the possible New Years Day event. Would be around 1-2 inch north 460.
I guess beggars can’t be choosers. I wouldn’t get too excited yet however.
KM looks like you may have to bring those snow meter flakes down a notch from what you mentioned last thread. Looks cold and quiet now past New Years Day.
QUAGS!!! Thanks so very much for linking Dave Tolleris’ thoughts today about what the next 17 or 18 days hold in store!! Since I am like wd — don’t do facebook — I would be very grateful if someone here would place a comment with a link to his facebook statements in the future.
By the way, GQ, I posted a comment on your website blog.
Usually Dave Tolleris talks about how sorry the GFS is beyond a few days. He praises the Euro for it’s accuracy beyond a few days. This time, however, he barely mentions the Euro and keeps pushing the GFS ensembles. He did finally mention this morning that the Euro doesn’t even have the low showing. What did the 0Z (12/30) predict?
Also, does anyone have a link to a good place to learn to do some model reading?
wd, although my feelings are not quite as strong as yours, I basically agree with a lot of what you said. For those of you who are regulars who read the comments here faithfully, you can stop reading … I have opined on this issue a few times before.
My big complaint is not just Roanoke, but throughout the USA and perhaps for most of the world. Looking back, it has turned out to be a mistake to place “official” weather sites at airports, because of the heat island effect going on at many of them as well as in downtown areas. One city that may be an exception is Denver. Their new airport (“new” being less than 20 years ago, I think) is WAY out of town, in an exurb to the NE. Of course, I am assuming that the NWS moved its Denver area site to the newer airport when it opened.
My earlier post was concerning the Jan. 2-4 possible event. Sorry, will do better next time.
Once again where is that cold from the Siberian snow pack? Guess we can throw that one out the window!
Gee, a couple of runs of the GFS and everybody’s freaking out.
The second storm system this week has always been very iffy. It may or may not exist.
Longer range, we are likely headed for a bit milder temps after this week, for a few days, or several. This has not changed.
Dave Tolleris is suggesting the polar vortex may end up located farther north and east than what the Euro shows above, not as conducive for widespread, extreme cold in the East. We’ll see how that plays out. Still, if you eventually want a colder pattern, it’s still better to have it on this side of the pole than in Siberia. It’s better for your favorite team to have the football on the opponent’s 30 yard line rather than its own 30, but it doesn’t guarantee a touchdown.
0Z Euro still has the late week storm but suppresses it, keeping most of it to our south. Also has a similar weak Southern stream storm with seasonable cold air around Jan. 9.
Where is the cold from the Siberian snowpack? Mostly it’s been in Siberia.
Will it cross the pole en masse and roll into the U.S. for a few or several weeks? That remains to be seen. I lean to “yes” but won’t be jumping off any fast food restaurants if it doesn’t.
Based on Monday night’s light/borderline situation alone, I still won’t be going any lower than 4 on the snow meter this week. It doesn’t take much to get to an inch.
Carry on.
Mr. Griggs you do not have to participate in Facebook to read it on DTs site. Just click on Facebook icon on right page comes up then a popup box asking you to sign in or join. Just hit the close at bottom right of box and you are in. Hopefully this will let you read what DT and others are saying.
As long as we keep seeing wet at least once every 7 days, i’m satisfied though I am a Dude for sure!
We still need all the precip we can get! I’m now in growing season year round these days. Got a nice plot of spanish roja garlic going right now!
Assuming the ‘Skins win tonight, I will be heading up to DC for their Wild Card game next weekend. This is why I hope these model trends continue. For once, I dont’t want major snows in our area. I’m with Griggs until the 7th.
NEWxSFC noted the stratospheric warming episode over the pole. It can take 2-3 weeks for that translate into a colder pattern over the U.S. It’s not an absolute guarantee of one, but that would carry us into mid January.
I’m not well versed on it, but meteorologist Allan Huffman was noting the Madden-Julian Oscillation was entering Phase 3. This is based on patterns in the Indian and southern Pacific oceans and has been shown to correlate with patterns in the Northern Hemisphere. It has to cycle through Phase 7 for typical correlation with a colder pattern in the eastern U.S. That would likely to take us into mid to late January.
Dave Tolleris is suggesting the polar vortex north and east of Hudson Bay would limit (not entirely eliminate) Arctic air intrusions into the U.S. for the next 15 days. That takes us to mid January.
So we’ll see what unfolds in January. If we get to the end of January and see no sign of it, that’s when I re-evaluate the winter as a whole. Until then, a pattern of seasonable cold fronts and occasional storm systems can make it snow under the right circumstances. We’ll see.
I kinda think that our “jumper” has already done so, unless the Giles County sheriff did take him into custody, as JFR suggested. He gave one of the most outrageous and funny comments ever here, about seeing green grass in Giles while Greene County evidently got a bit of snow …. when he was no longer there. Who woulda thunk it? ….. except for Jumpin’ Jared Flash himself.
TYVM, R.O.
This winter has similarities to one back in the early 70s where it would be cold warm up rain/sleet then cold and repeat. At least we are getting rain or precip . The weather is what it is and we just have to accept that. Other forecasters do not feel as confident that winter is over. Today is really beautiful just a little windy
Cool (65) and windy here on Big Pine Key. Water temp (75). It was in the 80′s here yesterday and should be back there Tuesday. Love Floyd County but hate cold and windy weather.
This winter has similarities to one back in the early 70s where it would be cold warm up rain/sleet then cold and repeat. At least we are getting rain or precip . The weather is what it is and we just have to accept that. Other forecasters do not feel as confident that winter is over. Today is really beautiful just a little windy but still in the low 30s
RO, I don’t see the close button on bottom right. What am I doing wrong?
What you guys dont seem to take into account is
when major airports are built it attracts business
and whole economies. One of the best examples is
in Va..Dulles (IAD). It was considered a white elephant
for the longest time. I worked there almost 30 years
ago and drove into the center of the airport through tall pines
and hardwoods. Build an airport and business comes.
Investors have not put ski slopes into the Roanoke immediate
area for a couple of very good reasons. Not enough snow..
but mainly its too warm to even support man made powder.
Lots of research, historical and otherwise , goes into planning ski slopes
and especially airports..
Prevailing winds and temps are kind of important in aviation.
The idea of one official temperature for each county goes
back to T Jefferson. Some of his ideas were pretty advanced,,some more so than the available equipment. http://www.monticello.org/site/research-and-collections/weather-observations
I think most visitors understand that higher elevations around any city
is generally cooler year round than the cities in the valleys.
Even some of the first ones ..even GW himself..saw the advantages (getting away from the swamps ,mosquitoes , and malaria) and promoting the cooler mountains and the mineral waters around Waerm Springs.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mountain_Road_Lottery
Kevin,
Would like to thank you for your explanation on who Dave tolleris is. I took a look at his website and had the same thoughts. I would also like to point out that I never intended to state that Dave tolleris was full of crap, I was merely trying to state that some of the weather bloggers around the NRV(not just in this forum) tend to take him as a joke. I will have to follow him closely and find out myself what he is all about.
KM, one might get the impression you are losing patience with everyone ready to throw in the towel on winter everytime a model shows a little warm air or a snow that doesn’t materialize. I still think we get above average snow this winter we just have to wait for January and February (our “real” winter months to get here. It will be OK once the 1st big storm finally arrives.
WD: Definitely agree on a better, more complete network of weather observing sites, so long as they are kept to certain standards of instrumentation, location, etc. But unfortunately that didn’t exist for historical records, and even the “official” sites often have lots of holes in data going back.
It doesn’t change much about my original point on the frequency of foot-plus snows in this immediate area. Most big storms capable of producing a foot of snow areawide around here are so dynamic they do so across a wide region at high and low elevations. Higher elevations tend to gain more on lower ones, very locally at least, in the more borderline, medium events — like what you not about having 3-6 inches while downtown has slush. The Dec. 18-19, 2009, type snows tend to clock everyone pretty hard.
Big snow events generally affect the entire region. Smaller regional/borderline ones are the ones that change the data from point A to point B. Yep, it would take some doing but is long overdue.
George: I just encourage patience for people following weather, especially those primarily interested in getting a certain type of weather.
I will have to pull back on the numbers on the snow meter now that the second system is looking even more doubtful and the first looks to have very weak moisture flow. As of Saturday, I was going to go 6 for Roanoke and 7 for Blacksburg. Will be fewer now.
WD: We’re almost always in agreement even when we don’t seem like it at first. We just come at the same problems from different angles.
Kevin: I have noticed that the NOAA Weather current regional observations for Roanoke and Blacksburg shown on the right hand side of this page are still showing December 21st. Is there a reason they so not update automatically or at least daily?
Leo Lady: They’re busted again. Supposed to update hourly. I need to keep a better handle on it. Will see about getting it fixed.
joe, no, I didn’t forget about what the airports were like and that they do attract business and development. I too lived in the DC area during the entire 80s, and you are absolutely correct about Dulles being in the middle of nowhere (so to speak) back then. Same for Atlanta’s situation. Hartsfield was in an open pasture according to my parents who flew in there back in the 60s, I think. My beef is with the NWS. I suppose that it has helped aircraft tremendously to have a trained NWS staff at each big airport, but it sure has screwed up historical data a lot IMHO.
The NWS probably knew way back in the ’50s and 60s when a lot of big city airports were being built (?) that a location away from downtown was preferable, because I bet they knew even back then about the urban heat island effect. But they should have had the foresight to know that development would happen around the airports.
Mr. Brand it is in the box that pops up asking you to log in or become a member of Facebook of which I am not by the way. I will go look and make sure I am telling you right
Thanks, Kevin. I thought something must be wrong with them. I have been off the blog for the most part for the past few days so please tell me what happened to the snow I was wishing for this week. From reading the posts above, it looks as though it will be February before we get anything over two inches. How sad!
A little folk lore here. I’ve posted some of them, but here is one I
CONTINUED_______________________Fat finger at work again.
Here’s one that that I grew up with. Ole timers would say ” waitin around fer another one” when snow stuck around for several weeks. Joe should remember that one. No weather gadgets to rely on, just years of experience. Weatherwise, it has a lot of bearing. Explain it Kevin, if you will.
Snow sticking around a long time would require a long-term, cold pattern that would be more likely to support additional snow, I suppose. We saw that in 2009-10. Last year our biggest snow disappeared fast — wasn’t waiting around on anything.
Blacksburg’s high of 30 today was first sub-freezing high since Feb. 12. Last time it was colder it only got to 20 on Jan. 3 last winter — the exception rather than the rule in a mild winter.
And along with requiring a long spell of cold weather, it had to help contribute to it. Maybe as much as 3*/4* per day since it reflects heat. That would turn the trick in a marginal event. Also, time frame of colder years verses warmer years would factor in. Complicated ain’t it?
Those NOAA maps just went from having us cooler than average for the 6-10, 8-14 day outlooks to like a blow torch hit and warmer. I just don’t understand this winter of much colder pattern change to basically normal in the 40′s and no snow in our immediate area. I know winter is only little over a week old, but all these dire “winters end” scenarios because of models immediate outlooks are depressing and miss the old days when one daggone model didn’t dictate the entire winter. I miss the mystery. Even Quags seems to be going in Dave Tolleris territory and jumping on that bandwagon! I’m speechless!
Winter isn’t over.
Dave Tolleris’ words: “That doesn’t mean is going to be a mild January 2013. But one must keep in mind that the CFS has been forecasting some serious cold stuff for several weeks for most of the country east the Rockies. But based upon what I am seeing right now that does not look like it is going to happen in the first 15 days in January.”
The first 15 days of January. Doesn’t mean it will be a mild January. He’s not saying winter is over, either.
Mayor of Dopplerville…
Thank you again for the photos. I have added your album to my photos page on QWC. If anyone else would like to see Carol’s images here’s the
link:
http://quagmireweathercentral.webs.com/apps/photos/
then just click on Doppler Carol’s Winter Scenes Album
Scott…listen to the voice of reason (Kevin)…Winter isn’t over. This warm up was sort of predicted a couple of weeks back. Let’s hope this set back is temporary. It’s just December 30.
Go Skins!
Also thanks to I’m in DC for adding photos of his Golden Retriever in the Winter Scenes album.
If anyone else wants to add any photos, please feel free to do so.
@scott saunders — December 30, 2012 @ 6:59 pm #68.
Those NOAA maps just went from having us cooler than average for the 6-10, 8-14 day outlooks to like a blow torch hit and warmer.
—
The 6-10 Day and 8-14 Day charts are computer generated from the GFS on weekends; whereas a forecaster issues them — oft times a blend of several models — during the week.
Not an exact comparison and it’s only one data point; however…the point is the CFS often has its head up it CFS…
Predicted: mild in the central US and cool on the coasts…
http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/sweaver/cfs_fcst/images1/wk1.wk2_20121216.NAsfcT.gif
Actual: cool in the central US and mild on the coasts…
http://snr.unl.edu/data/climate/temperature.asp
Snow waiting around for other snow
is probably meant to be humorous..even
back in WD-s “old days” Snow hanging around
in my mind means nothing but extended
period of cold or a longer period than usual
of entrenched cold air.
And that happens quite often around the Appys.
If you wanted to use that as a guide for when the next
snows come I suppose it would be a lot more true in Buffalo
than in Burnt Chimney. Snow in both places waits on nothing
other than in eventual temps warm enough to melt it.
There are days it rains and days it snows..
When theyll be here whether month or what day nobody knows.
Kevin, as I read the posts, I was beginning to wonder when I was going to scroll by a “its God’s fault” comment.
It rains on the just and on the unjust.
I presume that goes for snow, too.
And neither voodoo
nor old men will change
upper air patterns.