Astronomical winter roars in with big gusts, snow showers on Friday
Latest advisories/warnings for wind and snow from National Weather Service-Blacksburg
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Winter didn’t get the cue to start when meteorologists declared the start of winter on Dec. 1. But the season seems to be listening better to astronomers. The first day of astronomical winter on Friday — the winter solstice — will bring a day truly worthy of the label “winter” in Southwest Virginia, with 20-35 mph sustained winds and 40-60 mph gusts (enough for some scattered tree damage and power outages) hauling in a chilling dose of Arctic air to awake us from our mild, meek December slumber. These winds lifting over the Appalachians will cause upslope snow squalls to develop in the mountains of West Virginia, where many counties are under a winter storm warning, and some high elevation areas will see blizzard conditions at times. Snow squalls will pick up during the afternoon and evening, as the winds turn from more of a westerly trajectory to northwesterly, blowing perpendicular to the southwest-to-northeast slant of the Appalachian ridges. There will also be some instability from daytime “heating” (using the term very loosely, as peekaboo sun may raise temperatures only as high as near 40 even around Roanoke) and a weak trough of low-pressure rotating around the big low to the north. The New River Valley will almost certainly see snow dancing through the air at times Friday and Friday evening, and the Roanoke Valley likely will, with some flurries possible in any part of Western, Central or Southside Virginia at times. Accumulations in Virginia will mainly occur in the counties near the Virginia-West Virginia border and west of Interstate 77 — and even there, moreso in elevations above 2,500 feet and on west-facing slopes, generally an inch or two. But these snow squalls can sometimes surprise folks farther east. It is possible just about anywhere from the Blue Ridge and Roanoke Valley westward could see a few minutes of surprisingly heavy snow with a random snow squall, even enough to briefly whiten the ground in a few spots. The strong wind gusts and intermittent snow showers will continue into Saturday, slowly diminishing, with calmer, drier and seasonably cold weather (40s highs, 20s lows, some teens) settling in for Sunday and Monday.
This has already been a major winter storm for a big part of the central and northern U.S., as many areas broke out of record snowless streaks in a big way with some amounts topping a foot. The blizzard conditions led to a fatal multi-car pileup in Iowa. There were also tornadoes late Wednesday in Arkansas and Alabama.
There has been — and will continue to be — much conjecture about a potentially high-impact central and/or eastern U.S. storm system for Christmas and 2 days afterward, especially now that forecast models have shifted the likely track of the storm significantly eastward. The Climate Prediction Center hazards map includes heavy snow and heavy rain areas to our west and southwest on Christmas and the following day, but does not yet continue them farther north or east. Yet the wording of the hazards discussion contains this: “THE OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS MODEL AND MANY OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM DEC 20 INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW AND SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC LATER NEXT WEEK. SINCE THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS WINTER STORM AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TYPE/AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS, RESIDENTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR A POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM NEXT WEEK.”
In the same discussion, there’s also this: “12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM DEC 20 INDICATE INCREASED CHANCES FOR ANOTHER MAJOR WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S. AT THE BEGINNING OF JANUARY.”
Friday may not be the end of the world, but it is the start of a brave new world for Winter 2012-13. Much to monitor in the days and weeks ahead, starting with high winds and some snow squalls/showers/flurries on this Friday.
December 20, 2012 - 7:14 PM
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Winter seems to be right on schedule. Snow lovers should have all they want by the time this winter is over. Any chance this maybe storm maybe gets here early on Christmas Day?
Timing, track, evolution and temperature structure of the storm are all very much on the table and uncertain at this point. So yes there is a chance it could arrive early and begin precipitating on us on Christmas.
Also, I did not mention in the post above, but it appears a weaker wave of low pressure is likely to track north of us Christmas Eve. Could bring some light precipitation, rain, ice and snow all being possible.
I’m starting to buy more into the idea that Southwest Virginia will probably see wintry precipitation with the post-Christmas storm. Not sure yet if that’s ice, mix or snow, if it changes from rain or to rain, or if it is widespread or elevation-dependent or divided west/east or north/south.
Looks like Snoeshow and Canaan Valley are gonna
be the beneficiaries of the wrap around tomorrow..
GFS shows some enhancement especially in Northern WVa
Into Sat morning,,,
JY
Somebody will top 20 inches in that area of West Virginia. Lakes haven’t frozen over yet, so they’re going to offer up a lot of moisture for upslope in northern WVa.
Was going to make the trek (borderline risky) to Snowshoe tomorrow but none of my friends wanted to risk it with the upslope blowing drifting snow and rough roads. To me, the rougher the better, but I guess Saturday will have to do. I’m still anticipating wind and snow squalls. Definitely no blue sky. Funny how the weather is different 60 miles away, the way the crow flies!
I have been watching the temps this evening and they are now up to 40. They are getting warmer; it was 35 earlier. Still raining and last time I looked we had “0.06″ in the rain gauge.
Warm air advection ahead of the front. Rain mixing down warmer air aloft through cold air at surface.
Doppler Carol,when i got home from work it was 42.Its now 41 and temps have stayed steady all night long.Just checked the temp at Monterey and its only down to 37.I can`t believe its only 4 degree`s colder in Highland County than here in Marshall.
43 mph wind gust at Abingdon, and report of damage to a Taco Bell sign in Bristol. The cold frontal winds are coming.
The rain is over the wind is howling in the Chapel. Power still on but I thought we might lose it at first. Rainfall totaled .70″ today and more moisture will fall with the snow tonight and tomorrow. Wood is on the porch, fire is blazing and gas logs are consuming fuel so bring it on. Only bad part, I have to get up and go to work tomorrow but then I get some time off.
4C in ROA…8C at New Yorks La Guardia..
warm air as Kevin says, is advecting ahead of system
all the way up the east coast.
System will have to pull more NE to get the back side fetch
to cool things down. Lucky me Im working NYC tomorrow..and
today was bad enough.
Just looked at latest on top of Hot Springs Mountain at the airport.
-1c..rapidly dropped from plus 3…No mystery as to whats a couple hundred feet above the mountain tops…precip still being reported as rain..westerly winds over SWVA. From Norfolk to NYC..All southerly Atlantic water warmed winds.
Just talked with my cousin and she read on Ken Heath’s (Marion) Facebook page that a big snow was coming around Jan 2 and that the first weekend of the New Year would bring highs in the single digits and lows below 0 for Southwest Virginia. Not sure where he had heard that but may need to order another load of wood real soon.
I have seen some Euro weekly charts and CFS (Climate Forecast System) model info through Twitter that show lots of blue enveloping most of the eastern 2/3 of the U.S. to start 2013. So it may not be a wild idea. Even the Climate Prediction Center is already mentioning early January winter storm potential in the East.
Just added a Special evening Blog report. Will update more on Friday and this weekend. Nice ride today from Long Beach to Boston. Went right over the top of Draco’s center where it was actually smooth. The ride wasn’t as bad as forecast. Had some moderate bumps over Indiana & Ohio plus a little mountain wave action over Colorado & Kansas. Boston has been dreary to say the least. Well we the fun stuff at high noon Friday. DC first then Stuart Florida before home for the holidays. will check back Friday night.
Kinda wish they’d gone with “Drago” so there could be “Rocky IV” Ivan Drago jokes. “I must break you …”
They’ll be on Euclid for the winter storm next week.
Euclid…Eunise would have been better. Anybody remember that name from the Carol Burnett Show? Always loved that skit!
Compared to Doppler Carol and wd, for once I was one of the lucky ones this evening. An amazing 1/2 inch in the gauge, perhaps a few 100ths over that. It really poured between 5 and 7 PM. What I saw today was NOT sleet. Had no ice in it. Period.
0Z GFS looks to be a repeat of the 12Z Ensemble with some serious CAD.
Ice to rain. Yuck.
We amazingly got over 0.8″ of rain here…I’m happy with that! Not much wind yet though in eastern Pulaski County.
The past 3 days (not including today) averaged almost 12 degrees warmer than normal for Roanoke (a +12, +9, and +14), bringing the monthly variance up to an incredible +8.2. The last 12 days will knock that down quite a bit.
Any of you folks making a visit to “Upslope-a-thon” Central, namely Quinwood, West Virginia tomorrow? Kevin, if you were still single and didn’t have too much on your plate for tomorrow, would you be there? KM, care to give us a snowfall prediction (to the inch, but you will get credit for being within one or two inches) for that town?
Where on earth did TWC dig up these horrific names for their horrific idea of naming winter storms?? Caesar? Draco? Euclid? They are even worse than what many young mothers are naming their kids these days.
I’ll say 14 inches for Quinwood by Sunday morning.
They have a nice park with a trail that was good for my dog and me to play in the snow in. I might go if it were 8-10 years ago. And I might go when I have a bigger son.
00z GFS is absolutely frigid in fantasy land. (300hrs+) Single digits with a stiff NW wind anyone?
http://prntscr.com/mry5i
Hey Guys – - Checkout my latest blog.
http://blueridgeweather.blogspot.com/2012/12/cold-and-colder.html
Now, Ben G, I am glad that you recognize that the map you linked to (TYVM, by the way) cannot happen. Both Jared and Scott agreed that winter was over/would never happen …..
Well, it is about a half hour into the ‘end of the world’ on the East Coast and I am still here. I don’t think anyone missed me but I needed to go off the radar for awhile after the tragedy in Newtown.
I’m okay with 3 feet of snow after Christmas day but I will be wondering about weather on the 29th when I drive up to Columbus. And then my friend and I are doing our wacky annual cabin in the Shennies trip Jan. 5 – 7. This time we will be prepared to hike in either .4 from Skyline Drive or 3 miles from the other side. And also call their weather line. Last year in early Dec. it rained here but iced there and Skyline was closed. So it was a memorable 4 mile hike (to a different cabin), all up, in snow, after sunset, under a full moon, with heavy, cush-trip gear.
http://blueridgeweather.blogspot.com/2012/12/cold-and-colder.html
Folks check out my blog if you will! Thanks in advance.
Last chance at post from Snowshoe before rest….couple inches of snow and sleet…mixed rain at times. Temps were steady at 32-33. Will post again tomorrow before heading out on slopes.
Got up to throw a log or two on the fire; the wind is really blowing out there; currently 30 at 4:30 am. Not sure about the wind chill; still have “0.06″ in the rain gauge.
Snow flakes in the air near bonsack at 515a
A little light snow falling here as I let all the dogs out and begin my eighth year of retirement.
Headint to Whitetop, VA this afternoon, to bask in the upslope. Looking for about 4″ by Saturday morning.
Overnight DT said both models shifted east again! Then he said would be rain for all of Virginia? Im confused, I thought the further east the storm went the better chance of ice or snow. How can the movement east take away talk of ice and snow to talk of rain?
33.8* and flurries are flyin. Bent Mt. has all but disappeared at times this AM.
Came into Abingdon with wind and snow. Ground is white and roads were becoming white. We are now under a WWA and will probably see a couple of inches in spots. Old well pumps had to be primed and this may be a primer for the Jan, 2013 entrance. Oh by the way, the world has not ended yet!
Temperature has gone down to 28 this morning with a stray one or two flurries flying by with the blustery wind.
We have a stiff wind in places, but it’s a lot calmer at my house thanks to the hillside just a few hundred feet to our west. It buffers us from winds from the west through the northwest pretty well. The wind is roaring through the trees on top of the hill, but it’s barely stirring at the house. I didn’t check this morning, but our high gust through 1am was just 17 mph.
We picked up a really solid 0.82″ of rain, with some sleet mixed in with that. I was a bit surprised, but I’m definitely happy with that. Snow flying this morning, we had a light dusting on the decks and a few other spots at the house, a bit more by the office in the mulch beds and parked cars…but nothing measurable in either spot, yet.
Some light snow showers here in south Roanoke County. The first of the “winter”, but we also got a little bit on Oct. 30.
Worst winds look to kick up overnight and Saturday. So don’t be fooled if it doesn’t seem all that windy where you are now (I type that as the morning’s first tree-roaring gust blows through outside).
Models starting to solidify on inland tracks on midweek storm. Could be very wet storm for us, some ice/mix possible at outset IF that holds through Wednesday.
HokieTrax: Have the high-end cold weather gear ready for your early January hike at Shenandoah. Lots of guidance points to cold and maybe VERY cold weather to start the new year. Snow prospects uncertain, some indication of possible winter storm threat around Jan. 2.
I kinda hope we don’t get any storms between January 2-4…I’ll be coming off my week and a half of vacation, and I’ll be ready to get back to work by then! But, I suppose I’ll just shovel the driveway and grab the SUV if need be. I’m one of those rare people that loves their job and would rather be doing that than taking a day off (I really dislike being sick and missing work too)…though, I do enjoy my days off…I just always feel the need to be productive.
NO snow for sure now! Accuweather has 37 and snow here in Greene for Wednesday the 26th!
Canadian model is big on snow in western Virginia for midweek. I never rule out the Canadian after our 2010 storm chase trip where it was the ONLY model consistently showing a disturbance that brought us 2 days of storm chasing. The Euro and GFS scrambled to catch up with it late.
I sure was glad to see that temp map was in Celsius! Still cold, but 0-5 is a lot better than the -15 to -20 that I thought it showed before I realized it wasn’t Fahrenheit!
30 degrees and light snow showers here in Galax this morning.Ground is white in spots and was quite breezy overnight! Kevin,you are now even more famous,as the Galax Gazette is starting to run your Weather Journal in the local paper!! Your last article appeared in our paper this morning…
very light flurries wasena, carilion 9am
Any chance of a white Christmas now?
I’m not giving up on the midweek storm. Still plenty of time for things to change.
Talked to my mom in Giles and she said it is light snow with ground dusting of white! I sure do miss Giles sometimes, you could always count on those snows off the mountains! Here in Greene it takes a near perfect setup to see a flake. Storm has to come up from the south to get anything here.
Not much chance of a white Christmas. A chance of a white Dec. 26-27. Maybe a sleety/slushy white Dec. 26-27 if it happens.
Moderate to sometimes heavy snow here in Cass with 2 to 3 inches on the ground. Heading to the top shortly
Off and on sunshine this morning with off and on heavy bands of flurries flying by.
Hokie Trax- I wondered where you were. Glad you are back. Yes, be sure to follow Kevin’s advice about being prepared for the January potential storm. Stay warm!
sorry for the double post – - had some confusion:
My gut right now says this will be a “Miller B”.. And some ice to rain for us.
Jared – - you stand a much better chance at seeing snow than us down here. You need to relax ole buddy it’s a week away and this is gonna change. Watch how far south the energy digs.. If it gets to around the Houson, New Orleans, Mobile area then we have a shot at a Miller B. If it digs to the Arklatex region mid Mississippi and Alabama, look for a Miller A.
Ukie has Miller A
Canadian has Miller A
GFS has a Miller B
Euro has a Miller B – - I will say the Euro I think is out to lunch. Takes the main low like into Western Kentucky, then redevelops around Richmond. Strange run.
The trend HAS been East…hopefully this trend continues.
Still very windy and cold in Abingdon. Snow is falling but lightly. Went for my first walk today. One-half mile walking east was OK but the 1/2 mile walking back to my office (to the west) was more than rough. Guess I will not walk anymore today. Will try it tomorrow and my Cardiologist will just have to understand. I will drink an extra cup of coffee to elevate my heart rate – wonder if that is therapeutic?
GFS Miller B – - not ready to close the book on Miller A Yet – - but that energy diving out of Canada is awfully fast and under 100 hours on GFS and that’s what’s causing it to go west of the Apps then jump to coast. Miller B would also potentially dry slot us. Which, if ice, wouldn’t be a bad thing.
Wow the wind is strong in moneta now. Id hate to see how bad it will be tonight and sat if its gonna get worse
I am usually just a weather gawker and a blog watcher but thought since we are at Snowshoe I would chime in from Snowcrest Lodge on top of the mountain. The snow is blowing sideways and even the hard core skiers are taking their time with breakfast before heading out.
Beautiful conditions at Snowshoe..for those that can handle it
.
Snow and blowing snow. I’ve recorded a gust of 29.8 with a low wind chill of 4.8. Temp is 20
DC, can you see the top of Poor Mt. from your place? If so, you see any snow on top? Got to head up there this evening and wanted a heads-up.
Thanks, Brian and Snowcrest Gang, for the reports from Snowshoe. Last time I was on Snowshoe was in January 2009 when it was -6 up top. Not a skier but got a feeling my son may want to be one in a few years, so I may have to learn.
wdbrand – no I cannot see the top of Poor Mt. from here. I would have to drive a bit to that way. Lots of flurries and the wind has been horrendous! Nothing sticking here – too windy.
Yes, Kevin, get the son out on the skis and let him try it while he is still young. He might like it.
JARED FRENCH…AND VIRGINIA SNOW LOVERS!!!!
MERRY CHRISTMAS FROM THE 12Z EURO OPERATIONAL RUN!!!
AND A HAPPY NEW YEAR TOO!!!!
Be home soon.
41.8 MPH here around 1 PM here and 56.0 MPH on Poor Mt. @ 7 or so.
Thanks for the good news, Cap’n! How much snow is the is 12Z Euro showing at this point? And I hear that Jan. 1-3 still looks interesting?
12Z Euro shows inland low next week with INTENSE cold air damming — the blue colors in western Virginia.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS120.gif
Could stay snow a long time if this verifies, changing to sleet, ice or rain for a few hours before the cold on the backside of the low.
Reminiscent of our Dec. 4-5, 2003 storm that put down 5-8 inches of snow in our area with a thin crust of sleet/ice on top. Also somewhat like the storm exactly a year before that left 3-7 inches of snow with a thicker crust of ice/snow on top.
GFS has similar track but not nearly the level of cold air damming. It usually doesn’t pick up on it, though, til within 48 hours of an event.
Wow, Quags is saying 4 plus inches west of route 29! What is he seeing to make this call?
I may post this later, just for kicks, but the 500 millibar maps over North America for the 12/4/2003 storm and the 12Z Euro depiction for 12/26/2012 are remarkably similar.
12/4-5, 2003 was a 7.3-inch snow for Roanoke and a 7.2-inch snow for Blacksburg (counting 0.2 of upslope on 12/6). IF the Euro is right about the cold-air damming being that entrenched, you’ll get a ton of Gulf moisture running headlong into it. But this is the first model run that is that bonkers with the cold-air damming. And it’s still 5 days away.
Do you really think we’ll get a measurable snowfall the day after Christmas Kevin or will it be an ice storm for the valley?
I think the chances are pretty good of seeing some snow fall and accumulate with the post-Christmas storm in the Roanoke Valley, Scott. Not sure right now whether that’s a brief period at the outset before turning to sleet/ice/rain or something longer lasting. It’s all about 2 things: Track of the low, and level of cold air damming.
If I were snow-metering it right now, I’d go somewhere over 5 flakes out of 10 of getting at least an inch of snow or snow/sleet mix. But it may be different by Sunday when I have to commit on that.
Quinwood, WVa, up to 4 inches at 3:48 p.m., per NWS-Blacksburg. Just need 10 more tonight and Saturday to meet my call at Comment 22/11:43 p.m.
So far, Climate Prediction Hazards map has heavy snow only creeping into far southwest tip of Virginia, and freezing rain threat remaining to north in Shenandoah Valley of northern Virginia.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php
… and the usual Caveat: SINCE THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS WINTER STORM AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TYPE/AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS, RESIDENTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR A POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM DURING THE NEXT WEEK
Been flurrying here all day
Horrible wind in Burke’s Garden- blowing snow and white out conditions. Couple of inches and temp is 21F.
The first flakes of the season in DC this evening, albeit flurries, with an occasional heavier shower. Still nice to see this time of year. Winds are a-howling and 38 degrees currently.
Friend from Bluefield put a snowy picture up on Facebook! I’m so jealous, looked like at least enough to coverthe grass. I sure hope we get some snow in these next 2 or 3 storms!
Visited Mountain Lake in Giles Co a little earlier a good 1/2 to 1″ of snow so far.
Cold day here never got out of the low 40`s.Now down to 33.Supposed to go down in the middle 20`s tonight.Kelly Hoge in Burkes Garden that is super cold down your way.You will probaly be in the low to mid teens in the morning.Keep us posted on how much snow you get there.Thanks!
There’ll be plenty of snow Jared. You just might have to travel a little ways and make your snowman there then load it on your truck to get it in your yard. I wouldn’t have had to go over 10 miles today iffen I really wanted a snowman.
You guys gotta check out the YouTube song of the NOAA weather radio voices singing a CHRISTmas song!! Awesome.