Christmas week looks rainy; still some chance of wintry mix
We have not seen these purple colors on us much in the past few months. Those colors on the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center forecast map denoted 1.5 inch of rain or more expected to fall in the next 5 days. While a weak low passing north of us on Christmas Eve may supply some of that (maybe snow as close as Northern Virginia), the bulk of it is expected to arrive late Christmas and especially Wednesday with a much stronger low passing to our west. There is still some chance that the initial phase of the precipitation in Southwest Virginia on Wednesday will include some freezing rain, sleet or snow, as the first waves of moisture fall into some cold air trapped near the mountains. But the latest forecast data is suggesting less cold air, more of a western track to the system, and therefore more likely a primarily rain event for Southwest Virginia. There is still time for details to change, but this does appear to be trend forecast models are moving toward, and there does not appear to be enough blocking features to our north to force this storm system farther south and east. Considering the long-term drought this region and much of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast are suffering, Wednesday’s projected rain will be beneficial. A low track just west of the Appalachians is often a wet path for us, as it draws Gulf of Mexico moisture northward on the east side of the counterclockwise rotating low, and also pulls in some Atlantic moisture on east and southeast winds ahead of the low. What’s more, southeast winds as the low goes by to the west can squeeze more rain out, lifting dense moisture up the gradually rising slope of the western Piedmont and the much sharper rise of the Appalachians. Some details of the storm’s evolution — mainly, whether it will spawn a new low on the East Coast, or maintain an inland track toward the Great Lakes, often called a “lakes cutter” — are still unclear, but once it goes by, we will get another blast of Arctic air on northwest winds not too much different than what we just experienced. By late Wednesday or Thursday, expect some more upslope-generated snow showers in the mountains west of Roanoke with perhaps some flurries flying farther east.
Be aware if your travel plans take you west or north for Christmas, as heavy snow could affect parts or all of many states, such as Ohio, Indiana, Pennsylvania, West Virgina, Kentucky, Tennessee, Missouri and Arkansas. Severe weather with possible tornadoes may occur in parts of Alabama, Georgia, Florida and South Carolina. It’s a vigorous winter storm system with a cold and warm side. We’re likely going to be in between the extremes.
We’re in that season when there may be a new storm to watch around every corner. The next could happen around New Year’s Eve, with yet another 3-4 days later. It appears we are entering a pattern where there is cold air hanging around near or just north of us, and a more southerly course for the jet stream that would bring energetic systems across the southern half of the nation, putting almost every storm into some question as to precipitation type. Storm track and placement of features to the north that could drive cold air southward will be the key with each storm. Welcome to winter.
December 22, 2012 - 6:56 PM
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It’s good we’re getting some moisture, but please forgive me for not leaping for joy. It’s late December, it’s been cold, and I want to see some snow.
You’re forgiven, Brandon! A soggy, chilly day-after-Christmas won’t be all that joyful, but the rain is needed badly.
Not all our rainy winters are snowy, but nearly all our snowy winters have been even more rainy. It hasn’t been rainy in months. Turning that around might help your cause, at least somewhat.
Think several folks on the board will agree: This has been an easy winter on the pocket book for heating costs. Have kept up with my heating oil purchases last year and this year so far. 100 gallons last winter with about a quarter tank left. 100 gallons this Dec. and over 5/8′s of a tank left. Course I heat primarily with wood. I’ll take it with oil at $3.60 a gallon. 34.3* now. Also, the first ice I saw was this morning. Latest I can remember.
To: ricky. I very much enjoyed your comments late on the previous thread, just an hour or two ago. I haven’t read Kevin’s reply to them yet. I am mildly interested in what model runs show up to a week in advance …. they show a possible scenario. But I basically agree with your sentiments. Unless the major models (EURO, NAM, GFS, CANADIAN) have all showed a storm for days AND show it getting bigger (even if it is a rainstorm), I am frankly a bit skeptical until the 72-hour mark. Then I pay attention, and my skepticism often dwindles as we get within 24 hours.
But sometimes (and the late January 2011 “bust” was one of them) I remain skeptical about an iffy snowstorm scenario right up to nowcasting. I have noticed throughout the past few years here that models have a bias when it comes to snow ….. they often (no, not “always”) overestimate snowfall totals because they underestimate the effect of warmer than freezing ground temps. An exception to that was the February 19th snowfall, and luckily I just kept my mouth shut and frankly was not so skeptical of that one because KM told us of the powerful dynamics at work with that puppy. Also, that storm caught the daylight timing fairly well. Hit late on Sunday afternoon as I remember it, but it was dark for the entire time when the core of the storm was overhead. That is another variable that can affect what type of precip falls.
Also, ricky, I used to get frustrated by some folks here getting all worked up “GAME ON, SNOW LOVERS!!” more than 3 days in advance, but now I just smile and roll with it.
Several of the veterans here, including Kevin I believe, have observed that often a LOT of things have to go right for (especially) the floor of the Roanoke valley to get snow. I agree with them. There have to be temperatures at least very close to freezing near the ground, temperatures of 32 or colder at all levels of the atmosphere, and enough moisture with no dry-slotting to not only get the snow to stick but to then start piling up. Am I forgetting something? Probably. But throw a monkey wrench into just one of these, and ROA ain’t gonna get any or much snow.
In mid-December 2010 I for once was bullish on a snowstorm, predicting that Roanoke would get 6 inches. Actual? 3 or 3.5. Temps were cold enough at the surface, there was enough moisture, so what went haywire? A “nose” of warm air well above the surface invaded and changed the snowstorm to a sleet storm halfway through the event!
Oh, one more thing, ricky. I agree with you, that there will be at least two decent (2+ inches) snowstorms for Roanoke and areas within 50 miles. Probably 4 or 5. There is a TON of cold air on our side of the North Pole, unlike last winter. There are signs (FINALLY!!!) that we are becoming wetter (I mean that in a generic way, not just limited to rain). All we need is more Arctic invasions and the snow lovers will avoid the 2011-12 blues big time.
You know, there is one group of bloggers who are very noticeable in their silence (with the notable exception of the wonderful Nurse Snow) about the possible snowstorm of Dec. 26th-27th and maybe even a week from now. Who? The Teachers Who Love Snow (the original TWLS group). Could it possibly be because even if it does snow, it doesn’t change their work status? :>) :>)
I miss them. Especially one of my favorite comments here of all time: “Must … have …. snow.”
Well let’s see — from the last thread we have the wedge vs. cold air damming debate, the Spanish pronunciation of derecho debate, and now this:
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With all due respect, what a joke! The hype is ridiculuous. I’ll make a prediction. It seems to be just as good as all these supposedly scientific models that RARELY are correct. Prediction: No snow for the Roanoke this winter. Let’s see how that model pans out. I will never understand how people with degrees in meterology can usually be so wrong when it comes to winter weather predictions. Meterology is one field where you can be wrong most of the time and keep your job. Sorry if I offend anyone, I just want to see some snow!
Comment by John From Salem — December 22, 2012 @ 8:36 pm
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What hype, John? Discussing possibilities of what a system can do several days out. No one said it was definitely going to snow. We talk about weather here, possibilities, not just definites and absolutes.
One forecast model nailed almost the precise track of Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy and its strength 8 days out. That’s far more important than whether it snows in your backyard or not.
The line about meteorology being the field where people can be wrong most of the time and keep their job is oft-repeated, trite and inaccurate. Numerous respected studies put the accuracy rate of modern forecasts at 70-80 percent in the 48-hour range. ForecastAdvisor.com has the weather service and even Accuweather in the 75 percent range for forecast accuracy locally.
http://www.forecastadvisor.com/Virginia/Roanoke/24018/
I’m not a meteorologist and never claim to be one, so I have no self-interest here. I just lead a discussion board on weather, throw out a few ideas, and edit newspaper articles for most of my paycheck. But I have low tolerance for garbage like that being spewed at lots of very talented and dedicated people who save thousands of lives each year, just because someone is unhappy that it’s not snowing in their front yard right now.
Sorry if I offended, but that’s how I feel. Rant over.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — December 22, 2012
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I’ll let y’all wade over to the other thread if you want to engage in the wedge or derecho issues. Thought I’d bring this one here since I was the one who ranted.
I went after Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops for a similar line of reasoning last spring in a Weather Journal column:
“You see how often those guys are wrong? Not to offend anybody. … If I had the same percentage they’ve got, I wouldn’t have a job.” That’s Oklahoma football coach Bob Stoops, commenting on meteorologists as the university planned for possible severe weather affecting the school’s annual spring intrasquad game.
Never mind that Norman got hit by a tornado the day before, passing less than a mile from Oklahoma’s stadium. Never mind that meteorologists, many trained at the University of Oklahoma, successfully predicted the region that suffered a tornado outbreak six days in advance. Never mind that the federal government invests billions of dollars into severe weather forecasting and research in Norman — even more money than big-time college football can provide.
Stoops’ winning percentage with the Sooners is 80 percent. ForecastAdvisor.com rates the National Weather Service as having been 72 percent accurate in the past month for its Norman, Okla., forecasts. Going by his own words, Stoops is clinging to his job by 8 percentage points.
Is Stoops a name or a verb?
Sorry..im in Texas and nothing
is sacred north of the Red.
Soooey!
Kevin,
I particularly enjoyed Quags rant (#10 last thread)and your RARE rant (#101 last thread/#8 above)! No need for appologizes….just stay away from those tangled up strings of Christmas lights that only half work and don’t wait to assemble EVERYTHING on Christmas Eve for your son. Excellent job on the blog this year…..Thank you! Looking forward to an active January and February and frequent visits here for your analysis. Quags…nice job on your blog as well…love your passion!
I almost see no hype around these parts except for an excited snow fan one in a while, but I feel almost everyone here does a good job on analyzing models and weighing the possibilities. I rarely post and discuss winter weather because it just doesn’t excite me as much as severe weather does, but I still enjoy reading others post and see their thoughts about the possibilities of snow and cold.
On the note of of Kevin mentioning Bob Stoops, that’s one thing that bothers me during severe weather season anywhere. People disregard the weather. “They’ve been wrong 10 times before, why would they be right this time around?” One should take every severe weather threat serious. Meteorologists do their best with the tools and technology they have to predict the weather and just because the “severe threat” may not have verifified where you may live doesn’t mean the forecaster was wrong because it could have very well have verified 20 miles down the road. I think some people forget that they can’t pinpoint severe weather or any weather for that matter. Forecasters give the necessary information to the public in an area that may be at risk and they do a very good job at it, but like I said, it can’t be pinpointed and may not always verify where one lives.
I wish I could pick my stocks in the 70-80% range. I wish my wife thought I was right 70-80% of the time.
Ricky, I have shared your feelings on the models, and I think what frequently happens is it is easy to get excited when some of the models show snow, and even easier when it does not snow to forget that not all of the models showed snow. That is why the criticism of mets is completely inappropriate. A big storm with snow is still forecast, just not for our specific area. I have really appreciated Kevins approach over the last several winters in giving the different scenarios he thinks is possible and how likely each is. As Griggs pointed out, the right number of parameters have to be in place, but if you think it is tough here to see that happen, I lived in the middle of SC for 35 years, it is almost impossible there.
Please note that John from Salem is not related to me.
I have come to learn that no matter how sure a forecast is, chances are it won’t be 100%. I have witnessed too many winter storms right on the border and headed right for us only to dry up over our neck of the woods and re-form off the coast or just be a rain event. I have also seen forecasts for rain or “little or no snow accumulation” take everyone by surprise. With that in mind, I would not be surprised if we get snowed on this week. If not, maybe the post Christmas snow will be the set up that we need for a better snow next weekend.
I guess I’d better get down to the Burget King. I hear there is another “disturbance” down there.
I agree strongly with you, Kevin. For instance, I brought in TWC’s hourly weather forecast for my “postal” 24017 zip for yesterday and today. Yesterday they showed winds increasing into the 20s during the day, with a daytime high of about 39, I think. That’s basically what happened. WDBJ7 (and probably the NWS, also?) were right there, too. Today, early morning temps in the low 30s with the biggest winds then, slowly diminishing during the PM, with the merc climbing to the low 40s. The wind definitely let up during the PM, and I think it reached the low 40s by 3:00. Both forecasts were quite accurate.
Many of us (I used to be among those) only comment on weather forecasts when they are way off, but then even before I came to ROA a friend asked me to track forecasts vs. actuals, and it was eye-opening. Nearly all the time the forecasted high would be within 2 degrees, and within 1 degree a fair amount, too. Most people don’t remember forecasts except when they go haywire ….. that is simply human nature.
Newman, great comment!!! LOL ROFL, even!
Lots of people on here play golf. I will use a golf analogy for forecast models.
First you have the long-range models, the drivers. Drivers in golf are not designed to hit a ball directly in the hole, they’re designed to get a golf ball going a very long way in the general direction of the hole. Sure, they may occasionally accidentally plop one in a hole on a par-3, but that’s not their purpose. Same with long-range models, like the Euro and extended GFS. Their purpose is not to pinpoint an exact, specific forecast, but get the outlook moving in the right direction.
Then you have mid-range models like the GFS, NAM and still the Euro, your irons and wedges (oh no there’s that word again). Hopefully they’ll get you on the green in a shot or two, get you out of a sand trap or the rough. But still, not built to put the ball in the hole, though it can happen sometimes accidentally that you chip out of a bunker into the hole, or the 5-day GFS ends up pretty much nailing a low track.
Then you get on the green and have the putters. Even beyond the short-range GFS and NAM there are the RAP and HRRW and short-range local WRF models, etc., that forecasters use to get it down to the nitty-gritty, precipitation probabilities and amounts, timing, temperatures. Just as putts sometimes miss the hole, so do the short-range models. Hopefully you have good forecasters on those putter-models knowing the tilt of green and the roughness of the grass to adjust the output to sink it.
is there any chance of any white stuff on monday in white sulfer springs heading that way for christmas
is there any chance for a derecho wedge in the next few days sorry couldn’t help it lol
NON-WEATHER, but a smiley. At the end of my workday today, one family that I like very much gave me a Christmas card inside an envelope. Written on the outside: “TO the POSTAL OFFICER.” LOL
What do you think, Doppler Carol, Other John, Nurse Snow, Kevin, Quags, Sam Oakey (are you still alive, by the way?), Nick, Rick: should I change my “handle” here to “Postal Officer”? Or just include it between my first and last names? Or “C” None of the above ?
Richard: If we had one, we’d have debate about how to pronounce it and whether it was damming or not.
I of course liked your latest comment, Kevin, because it included golf. Oops, I copied your typo. As wd says, it is “goof.”
Of course, that (goof) is what wd thinks of federal weather agencies, I get the impression.
With all due respect John from Salem: IF you truly believe what you say about the weather, about meteorologists being wrong most of the time, I challenge you. Go all of 2013 without looking, listening, watching ANY type of weather forecast. No internet, no radio. No tv. No asking your friends.
Then get back with me. Let me know if you still share your same views.
@Kevin Myatt — December 22, 2012 @ 10:14 pm
18.Lots of people on here play golf. I will use a golf analogy for forecast models.
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Not a duffer I; however…+1 on the analogy!
Good time for an ROA-Times info-graphic?
By the way — injecting a weather note in here today — did anyone see what the computer-generated (on weekends) Climate Prediction Center map kicked out today for the 6-10 day period:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif
Never recall seeing that much blue on a map. Doesn’t mean it’s right. Just different.
NEWxSFC: I’ve played exactly 3 holes of real golf in my life, in a college PE class. Made par on par-3 hole, and scored double-digits on a couple of others. Never figured out how to use drivers, decent with a putter. Analagous to my weather ability?
You know something, a big rant once in a very long while is OK ….. at least if I am not on the receiving end of it. It lets folks know how strongly one believes in something. From being an avid sports fan throughout the years, a huge rant from a coach or manager who nearly always is calm carries a lot more weight than it does from some over-emotional coach/manager. When former NFL head coaches Tom Landry or Joe Gibbs or Bill Walsh got very angry, the refs knew that they had probably really blown a call badly. Same with you, Kevin. You keep your temper/frustration in check amazingly well, have the perfect temperament to be the head guy for this blog. So when you show some emotion about something, it lets all of us know how strongly you feel about it.
The driver-iron-putter analogy wrt to the cascade of LR-MR-Short Range model forecasts and how those forecasts tend to converge as VT+0 approaches.
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VT (verifying time of forecast)
My, my, this blog is very active for a “Saturday … Saturday …. Saturday night’s all right” as Elton John used to sing. Love it. About the blue on that CPC map. At first it looks ridiculous. But then when one looks at some of the details, it does make some basic sense. When was the last time that Alaska was portrayed in tans and browns and oranges???? I cannot remember, that’s how long. And the only other piece of the map that is in tan is NE Maine. Weird. The last part of the CONUS to be affected by the cold air invasion.
And as for your golf game, if it mimicked your skill in outlooking/forecasting, you would be among the money leaders on the PGA Tour.
I commend our weather forecasters also. They have to predict using many models and tools and they all do not agree. I have frustrations where I live since the weather reported to us tends not to take into account our latitude and elevation and I adjust what they say for where I live. There are more important things about the weather than just getting snow. Yes us snow lovers want it but while we want a snow prediction other weather men and women may be reporting about tornadoes, floods, drought or other concerns that affect good peoples lives. Keep the good work up weather men and women and you too Kevin. You give us a forum to fuss, complain, give thanks or whatever we feel about this thing called weather. And Doug, we will all like you no matter what you call yourself.
NEWxSFC: Did you have a link intended there?
BTW … that analogy was born on a moment of inspiration on the 2009 Virginia Tech storm chase trip when a non-weather faculty member driving another vehicle asked about the role of models in what we do. I relayed it to him over the CB radio.
Michael Hoback: No offense to Morristown, Tenn., office, but I think your area should be annexed into Blacksburg’s forecast area.
@Kevin Myatt #32.
NEWxSFC: Did you have a link intended there?
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No link.
Just a footnote.
Place to be for a white Christmas, per the 0Z NAM, is my hometown of Jonesboro, Arkansas. NE corner of the state absolutely hammered Christmas evening. Clown map says close to 10 inches:
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=NQA
I would say there, an 8-inch snow compares in frequency to a 12-inch snow in Roanoke, about once-twice a decade on average, historically. Only 3 or 4 happened in my 27 years living there.
It is getting late, I had to work 6 straight days this week, and I have to admit that I am punchy (even more than usual). I am going to violate my own advice.
Here is the list of TWC named winter storms, at least partway through the alaphabet: With a very few exceptions, the names are very lame.
Athena, Brutus, Caesar, Draco, Euclid, Freyr, Gandolf, Helen (HUH!!! How did a WASP name get in there????), Iago, Jove, Khan (now THERE is a name that I can really like!!! If the list does get that far, it will either be a doozy here, or just miss us), Luna, Magnus, and (Find) Nemo. Later on there is Rocky (“YO, Adrian ….”) and Yogi. wd has got to love that one.
Now for my list: A-hole, Berra, Crap, Dufus, Egad, Flucked, Graupel, Hail, Idiot, Jerk, K???, Lame, Merd, and Never. As in Roanoke “Never” gets a winter storm, it seems. Just teasing, snow lovers ….
At least it would give the TWC announcers something to chuckle about. Paul Goodloe is one of my favorite TWC announcers, whenever I watch that channel, which isn’t much. I saw him yesterday morning or Thursday afternoon with a map of “Draco” behind him, and he sure acted like internally he was muttering to himself, “I cannot believe I am talking about a serious snowstorm affecting millions and I have to call it ‘Draco.’”
Think about Crap. They could say “Winter Storm Crap is spreading its winter storm crap over a large area of the US …”
Michael, thanks very much. How was your walk today? I wonder if your winds subsided earlier today than they did here … maybe you mentioned it, but there have been too many comments today for me to remember.
And what are you doing still awake with us night owls?? :>) :>)
John from Ruckersville, haven’t decided if I will jump off the Burger King here in Greene or the one in Giles! LOL I’m going to give it until December 31 down in Giles and if I see no flakes I’m going to jump. I figure I will at least see some snow showers while I am visiting the relatives.
Doug, as a proud founding member of the TWLS, I kept quiet on this storm system because I was hoping it wouldn’t happen (as snow) because I am OUT OF TOWN!! While I would prefer a snowstorm happen when we are NOT on break, I will take snow anytime… while I am in town. I was so frustrated that for awhile it looked like we were going to get a measurable snow while I was gone that I said nothing at all about it. Sorry to those of you in town, but I am glad to see that it is probably going to dump a bunch of much-needed rain while I am gone… lol. Sorry, fellow TWLS-ers.
I was driving down 81 this morning on my way to Atlanta, and started seeing snow in patches on the side of the road in Pulaski… ground totally covered between Wytheville and Marion (not on the Interstate though). Looked like a good inch at least in places but obviously I couldn’t get out and measure. According to the temp on my car the temp dropped from around 33 in Roanoke to 28-29 in these areas (and the windshield wiper fluid in my car became frozen, which was a problem!). After Marion the snow got patchier and patchier until shortly into TN past Bristol it completely disappeared. It wasn’t snowing while I was passing through, but it obviously did yesterday/last night. So at least I got to see some of the pretty white stuff.
Picked up about 4″ in Whitetop, with the upslope. Looking very Christmasey there. Back in Blacksburg now. Anyone heard from DT or Quags about the Dec. 26-27 big snow? I guess they are refocused on the supposed Jan. 2 big snow. We shall see.
You said 4 inches before going to Whitetop, Blacksburg Mike. Good call.
Quinwood was up to 12 inches at 10 a.m. My call was 14. Wonder if they got a little more after that. Still, not bad.
Saw DT bashing Henry M. earlier today and then the models come out saying the storm is moving back west into Kentucky! I bet DT is feeling pretty stupid about now. Guess people are going to have to quit hyping these storms and realize Virginia just isnt a good place to be for snow unless you live on a 4000′ elevation mountain! It seems that snow just doesnt occur much here, I am guessing because the mountains block everything! Speaking of that, did the supposed Rex block go extinct like the T-Rex! LOL
Virginia is a better place for snow than some of the places that are going to get hit. Believe me, I lived in Arkansas for 3 decades, it snows a ton more here than there — just not in this storm (most likely). Snows more in most of Virginia than in most of Kentucky, too.
Rex blocks don’t live forever.
Jared, did you see the band of moderate to severe flurries that passed through e. arly this morning. Not enough fell to provide enough to collectively cover a sheet of notebook pape r but It was good to see and unexpected. I have a feeling the midweek storm is just setting the stage for a good-un next weekend.
So where is the big cold at everyone says is coming? Has highs in 40s next week, isn’t that normal?
I’m going to be on the blog intermittently the next couple of days. I plan to take a big chunk of Christmas Day off entirely, especially now that the winter weather threat is easing. If it comes back, I’m still going to block off part of the day to be off here. Keep posting your comments but understand it may be hours before it gets approved. I will post the new snow meter Sunday night.
I think we’re going to have a LOT more of these storm systems to track this year. Not all of them are going to do what you want them to, whatever that may be. Big-picture perspective. Long way to go this winter.
Love the golf analogy! Finally this stuff in terms I can understand….thanks
NWS has NO mention of the “S” word for Blacksburg at all until Wednesday night, Dec. 26th, and then it is only snow showers. Jared – the best place to be for snow in Virginia is western Higland County near the WV border, Tazewell County near Burkes Garden, and Grayson County near Whitetop. Those three areas see as much snow as Vermont/New Hampshire/Maine in an average winter – no joke. Nearly every time the winter winds turn from the NW, it seems to snow (and accumulate) there. When you visi,t it is like being in a real life snow globe. Lot’s of land for sale too!
Merry Christmas Kevin and fellow Weather Bloggers. Kevin, I want you to take time off the next few days. The son is at that age where Christmas is starting to be a big thing and memories are being made. Don’t let one of his memories be daddy always dealing with the weather.
As the sun comes up on Doppler Ridge it is 19 this morning. Just a very slight breeze and mostly clear skies with several contrails criss crossing.
Thee storms in the next week.. check this out http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/tpac/wv.jpg look at that PLUME of moisture in the Southern Pacific. This hasn’t been here. Almost dare I say El Nino like. Three pieces of energy to track this week. 1) Christmas Eve 2)Boxing Day 3) The 28th. NOW – - none of these are likely to produce snow but at least we are getting moisture and building the snowpack further South in the United States. These things will add up eventually and give us a pattern with not only wintry temps, but significant winter storm threats. I give it the week after next (New Years Week). That is when the real fun begins here.
A cold 18 this morning,our coldest low yet.Yesterday only made it up to 40.Winds have died down now and its calm.High up here today low to mid 40`s.About this storm on Wednesday thats why i never get excited about a model run calling for snow 5-7 days out.I wait till one day before the storm arrives.At that time they have most of the info down and know whats gonna happen most of the time.Why you ask?Because i used too get excited only to be let down time and time again.It almost always turns into a rain event even up here in Nothern Va.So Jared French hang in there don`t jump yet your snow will get here sooner or later.Have a great Sunday all,and go Redskins!
I just took a look at the “12Zeuro500mb… etc” polar map, and from my weak understanding the overall picture doesn’t look good for a strong Greenland block, because there is only one real polar vortex (of purples surrounding a blob of bright red) and that is over eastern Siberia, well west of Alaska. Not even one area of purple on the Canadian side of the North Pole.
There is some semblance of the Arctic invasion that affected the eastern USA on Friday and Saturday, with an area of intermediate blue sitting over southern Quebec, NE NY state, and Vermont, but I bet that is exiting stage right. Time to go look at the “teletubbies” …. that is my lame nickname for the teleconnections.
OK first the AO (Arctic Oscillation). The GFS NAO graphs are still fairly bullish for a continuation of the ice cream cones remaining in negative territory for the next two weeks. The first link is the GFS graphs, and the 2nd one is the ensemble, which has some models going into positive territory. So this will be a good period (if I can remember to look again around the 1st, which I probably will not) to compare how good the GFS is vs. other models for predicting movements in the AO.
GFS link: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_mrf.shtml
Ensembles: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml
The NWS forecast briefly went to “rain or snow” for Wednesday while you were away, B’burg Mike, but now is back to rain with snow showers at the end. In reality, about all that may happen at the front end of the rain now is a few sleet pellets in some initial evaporational cooling, and maybe a few small pockets of freezing rain in colder valleys.
As a side note, anytime anyone sees “rain or snow” in an NWS extended forecast, that really means “rain or snow or sleet or ice or some mixture.” Their policy or practice (not sure which it qualifies as) is to not get specific beyond “rain or snow” when precipitation type is in question in an an extended forecast, more than about 3 days out.
Griggsy,
What is it with you and teletubbies? LOL
MERRY CHRISTMAS
Outlook for the NAO is NOT good at all according to the GFS maps. Only the 10-day and 14-day show small, brief dips into negative territory. And each one of those graphs show a return to neutral after just 3 or 4 days in neg country. I guess the outlook for the January 1st or 2nd storm is a brief window in the negative NAO.
The link: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml
The ensembles look more bullish than the GFS, sort of. From what I can tell of the the red spaghetti lines on the top ensemble graph, more than half of them show a nice dip into negative readings starting around New Year’s Day. But even there, quite a few models go into positive levels. So January 1st (or thereabouts) looks like a real benchmark for the early January outlook. IF the two Oscillations (AO and NAO) that signal big cold here when negative do in fact go negative, early January could make the snow lovers happy here. But what if not? Anyway, the Ensemble link below, and you can draw your own conclusions:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm.shtml
Just looked at the PNA ensemble outlook, and WOW!!! Gargantuan good news for you snow and cold lovers here. As Zach and KM and others have mentioned, the moisture into the southern half of the West Coast is a “good” sign, and byproduct of what the PNA is doing and will do. No need to post the link to the GFS outlooks, because the ensemble top graph with the red spaghetti lines is unanimous ….. the PNA is FINALLY making its move into positive levels!! No pause at the neutral zone. The link: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna_index_ensm.shtml
Mike from Marshall, I really liked your comment at 8:54 today. About not getting excited until a day before the storm hits. You and John from Ruckersville need to keep on working on the Burger King jumper (also known as “Mr. Exclamation Point”) to get him to follow suit, so that all three of you guys north of Charlottesville can work as a team. Oh, two other things: A. Merry Christmas!!! And B. Good luck with the Jumper ….. you will need a lot of it. The one about Jared might be Mission Impossible.
The latest run of the Euro shows a general 3-6″ of snow being dumped on our area with the post-Christmas storm.
http://t.co/1Ha5cXSd
Blacksburg Mike in reference to your number 48 post why would so much land be for sale in those areas. Resort areas I understand but not rural farm land so much. As a side note why is the wind blowing so much? Temp. 45 degrees at 10:31
It’s blowing more on you Randy because you’re up higher than most of us. Same situations that made the wind blow hard Friday and Saturday, just more spread out and farther away.
It can get pretty cold in NAO-neutral. It just doesn’t lock in for 2-3 weeks like it can with NAO-.
Brandon: Thought you gave up on it.
Trying to figure out where that comes from, if it’s proposing snow on backside or front side. Will keep an eye on it, remain skeptical just based on likely low track and history of such tracks in our winters.
Kevin: I also gave up any hope of my ‘Skins making the playoffs when they were 3-6. Look how that turned out.
I have a habit of throwing in the towel a little early. But with that said, Euro is probably overdoing it.
Scott, thanks for your comment and I am glad that my nickname for the teleconnections made you LOL. Well, both words (teleconnections and teletubbies) start with “tele …”, and there are still multiple syllables after the tele, unlike telephone and telegraph. But the biggest reason? Because I am crazy. But not crazy with respect to most weather …. unlike perhaps a few other folks here. :>) :>)
Yes, Brandon and others, please keep us updated on what the 0Z Euro shows, EVEN if it is not good news for snow lovers. That is one of my few pet peeves on this blog …. there are often plenty of links to model runs which show snow here, but let the latest runs be less optimistic, and suddenly the comments with links to them disappear. Not fair. By the way, Brandon, you are not in that group.
The weather blog is for fun and information among people who are interested in that. I love the good-natured humor but if you want to get contentious, go over to the political ones. Apologies if I offended anyone in the discussion pronunciation of derecho. Believe me, there are worse things in life.
Kevin – more weather the week of January 1st? The cabin trip is looking verryy interesting.
Perhaps Kevin, instead of golf..
Maybe sport around a bow an arrow for a few months..
See what that does to your psyche..and that of detractors
and sycophants alike. ( The Weather Man) 2005.
By post-christmas storm.. do you mean the one near new years? I thought the one on the 26 was going to be mostly rain…
Brandon, assume that’s what the pro service at accuweather looks like..
Randy Oakey – I am not sure “why” there is land for sale, but I will say there is all kinds of land for sale in the Whitetop area (and much of it above 4,000′), which is paradise for Virginia snow lovers. Also,I have seen land for sale in western Highland County, again, snow lovers paradise. Not so sure about Tazewell County, although I would imagine an opportunistic snow lover could track down an acre or two at about 3,000′ to put up a nice little “snow shack”.
Brandon R (post 59) – that Euro link actually shows 6″-9″ right over RNK and NRV, not just 3″-6″. I won’t buy it until it shows up in the actual NWS grids, or at least a reference to it in their discussions.
expect rough air in ridge passes..just issued from Govt..
SIGMET WHISKEY 1 VALID UNTIL 232034
NC WV VA
FROM EKN TO 40NNE RIC TO 30W RDU TO HMV TO EKN
OCNL SEV TURB BLW 080. RPTD BY ACFT. CONDS CONTG BYD 2034Z
Elkins Richmond-Raleigh-Holston Mountain-Elkins…..occaisional severe turbulence below 8000ft….for at least the next 3 or 4 hours ish..jy
Brandon
That Euro map you posted was for hour 165. I’m headed up to NY (south of Albany) the day after Christmas…very close to one of those “projected” “18 ovals. Any indication when the majority of that snow will fall in the next 165 hours. I realize it’s a long range forecast (wishcast) and much can and will change…just wondering and monitoring the stuation for travel plans.
What is Joe Bastardi seeing that makes him say the low on the 26-27 will eventually be over Cape Cod? I sure hope he is correct, because that would nail western Virginia with a really good snow!
Arrived alive in Plymouth, Massachusetts for Christmas with wife’s family. Looks like we may be in for a good snow here in New England after Xmas.
Wished VA was going to get more but maybe 1-4″ for western VA is all you may see unless by fate there is another east shift. West and north of VA will see the big un. What’s even more important is the huge potential for a serious outbreak of severe weather in the deep south with this upcoming event. So be on guard down in Dixie.
As per Zach, the Pacific is opening up for bidness with the moisture feed starting to kick in. Did not have that last winter. Even if won’t get snow this go around, your chances increase after the 29th.
Will update website later after family time.
Merry Christmas all!
Hey Kevin.
What will the average have to be in Roanoke the next 8 days to break the record for warmest year?
Hi Doug, just want you to know that another of the TWLS group is out here watching and waiting! I love snow anytime! I don’t know enough to comment on the forecasts but love learning more about them and watching the blog blow up when snow is on the horizon. Kevin, Doug, and all of the blog regulars – thanks for all you do to keep us safe & informed!
Jared – no a low around Cape Cod doesn’t mean snow for us. Cape Cod is in Massachusetts – - my gut tells me you’re either thinking of Cape Hatteras OR you are thinking this automatically means monster East Coast storm. MANY storms in fact I’d say the better part of 70 percent of “East Coast Storms” form after they pass our latitude to the north, thus making a Cape Cod storm, not all that much of an irregular thing.
Blacksburg Mike just wondering why or if you knew. Land when the price is right is almost always a good buy. For people who like snow sounds like these would be the place to be. Some of these places I have never been to hopefully will be able to before I get to old. Got up to 52 so far but still breezy and becoming cloudy. Not to bad at all just still need moisture
I second Zach’s comment regarding a low at Cape Cod.
Checking a couple of other sites, the 0Z Euro does not seem to be showing the snow on the map Brandon posted from Accuweather Pro. Not sure what the deal is, a map for a different time frame (Todd alludes to that), or a different algorithm for converting Euro data in to snow totals. Regardless, I don’t see anything on the new 12Z Euro that would lend itself to anything other than the going forecast of periods of rain next 3 days, with maybe some brief periods of sleet or patchy freezing rain near the onset of the different rounds of rain.
I would not be surprised to hear a little sleet pecking around in the early morning as moisture is starting to overrun the cold air at the surface.
Doing the snow meter for Monday, it’s the mysterious third system about Saturday that gives me the biggest fits, an iffy system to start with that opens up “the full gambit of weather options,” as the NWS-Blacksburg’s forecast discussion puts it. That’s the kind of system that could bust the snow meter one of these weeks, coming so late in the timeframe. What the first 2 do will affect the third.
I agree with Kevin. I have no idea why that image is inaccurate. I got it from a trusted source and assumed it was legit. My apologies.
High today was 44, back down to a chilly 32 now.Redskins won again!The big game is next week against those cowboys.Gonna be a tough game.Can we win 7 in a row?I sure hope so.Have a great night all.Hokie Trax i agree with you 100 percent.This is a fun site,and i`m proud to be a part of it, even though i`m not in Roanoke.
Unless we have some warm air move in, I think this area is primed for some wintry weather tomorrow. They are calling for a low of 33 but we have clear skies, no wind, a 21 deg dewpoint and the temperature is 39 at the airport. My digital thermomiter is on the fritz but it feels colder than that here at the house. I would guess its around 35.
I’d bet it gets down to about 28 tonight and with clouds moving in, I bet that cold air gets trapped and will set the stage for some snow/sleet changing to frz rain, then a cold rain. I wonder what the temps aloft are. Anybody have access to those charts?
Jennifer and Meg, thanks very much for all that you two and the rest of the teachers do. Great to hear from you both. I heard that Roanoke city schools have a really big layoff this Christmas (oops, “Holiday”) season …. no school until Monday the 7th. If Quags and company are correct, we might have two snowfalls by then. As for me, IWBIWISI.
And I “third” Zach’s comment about a Cape Cod low in wintertime. A big low over Cape Cod used to mean that inland portions of central New England especially would be hit hard with a big snow, say from Worcester, MASS north and west. but all of the southern 2/3rds of New England if temps were cold enough.
I think you should “pull the trigger” (as you once referred to it) for the snow meter for this coming week for Blacksburg. Almost for public relations reasons, in a way. If Bburg does get an inch, and especially if they get 3+ inches, you may get teased by some here if you did a 4 (or less) for them on the snow meter …. I hope that this comment doesn’t trigger another rant ….. LOL
I make what I consider an almost historic (certainly a big benchmark) comment at 9:40 AM today because of the information it contained (the PNA is FINALLY not only leaving negative levels but going positive), and it evokes zero comments here. C’mon, Jennifer and Meg, make another public employee happy and comment how great that PNA stuff is ….
One thing never changes this time of year. “Christmas times a coming” so merry X-mas to everybody here.
Not looking good for the deep South. They could be facing a serious tornado outbreak on Tuesday.
Mr. Griggs, you shore seem to be in better spirits this year than last. Could it be you are now motorized instead of hoofin it. Do change ones outlook on life, don’t it?
Merry Christmas to the blog. Santa may fill everyones stocking this year:
Plenty of moisture to ease the drought.
Snow lovers, be patient, your present is currently on back order but will be arriving early in the new year.
Whatever your weather wish is, there is a good chance we’ll see it in the active pattern coming in the next few months.
HAPPY HOLIDAYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!(for you Doug!!!!)
Merry Christmas to you Mr Brand and to all on this blog. Will be somewhat sad without our two pets the French Poodle MaryBeth who was my parents before they passed and our Golden, Sofi who loved Christmas and opening packages as much as anyone. She also loved to play in the snow( 2009-2010 was her favorite winter.). She was also a good predictor of thunderstorms in the spring/summer. If it was going to storm she would not go outside without lots of coaxing even if storms did not come until late in the day. Our son is in from law school and that makes X-Mas all the more special.
I’m trying to keep up with the weather lately, but I’ve been under the weather and haven’t felt much like moving. I slogged through the last couple days of work to get a full week and a half off for the holidays, butt I’m paying dearly now for not taking the last 2 workdays off instead.
I suppose I’ll throw the tarp over our newly delivered firewood, since I’ve got a lot of splitting and stacking yet to do, so it stays dry. Whether it snows or not, I just want ample moisture. The last storm was the wettest since September…we could use many more like it.
Perhaps this non-winter weather event is a Christmas gift to all of us weather enthusiasts (snow lovers and others alike)… we will likely spend less time glued to the models and to Kevin’s blog over the upcoming holiday, given us all a break. I will be ready for the next few coming up, though!
It got up to 45 today up here on Doppler Ridge but now tonight the air seems more moisture laden – looked like frost forming already on the grass when I walked the dogs.
The PNA is changing – let’s hope that it keeps changing.
We just need all of our “players” to line up and get out on the field at the same time and then maybe we will get a “touchdown” (snowstorm)! or for you golfing types – a hole in one!
To wd; yep! But unfortunately this Christmas is turning very sad for us. Our 14-year-old dog (his birthday is today, Christmas Eve) is in failing health and showing little signs of a comeback. The vet had him for 3 days last week, and got his kidneys in better shape, but now for the first time since we first got him as a pup he is having trouble controlling his bladder. Doesn’t eat, and sometimes upchucks after the few times he does eat. We often have to help him get up the small steps into our house. It is heartbreaking.
Hate to hear that, Doug. They need to find a way to make pets outlive us but they teach us some valuable life lessons like not taking it for granted and to enjoy every minute. Hoping for the best for Blondie.
Frost on the ground and the temp continues to fall. Hardly any clouds in the sky so se will continue to have radiational cooling for awhile longer. We should be on track for some icy weather tomorrow.
Doug, we went through something incredibly similar just before Thanksgiving with a beloved 3 year old cat, who had failing kidneys. Symptoms were almost identical, it was heartbreaking…you have my sympathies.