Cold front could rock SW Virginia with gusts similar to those of Superstorm Sandy
Near the end of a Weather Journal column about Superstorm Sandy at the end of October, I wrote this line: “Roanoke’s winds peaked at 40 mph sustained and 60 mph gusts. We may have a cold front or two this winter with winds almost that strong.” We may be about to test the truth of that statement for the first time this winter. The National Weather Service has raised a high wind watch (likely becoming a warning on Thursday) from Thursday evening through Saturday afternoon for the potential of some 60 mph winds in much of our region. A strong Arctic front is going to slam through on Thursday evening, bringing with it a blast of cold air that will be a quite a shock after so many days of 60s this month (Roanoke’s high of 64 on Wednesday was the 10th 60+ degree day of December, the most since 11 in 2006.) The tightening pressure gradient around a strong low that will track to our west and north, and only poke eastward across New England, will keep us in strong northwest wind flow for about 36-48 hours. (This strong low is triggering a blizzard, severe weather risk and dust storms in various portions of the central U.S.) As these winds hit the mountain ridges, choppy waves will develop that bring stronger winds aloft to the surface. It’s one of the hazards that goes along with living in our lovely Appalachians — recall that many locations east of Roanoke in the more level terrain didn’t crack 50 mph with wind gusts on Oct. 29, while 60 mph gusts roared through our trees with Superstorm Sandy. I would not at all be surprised to see a 60 mph wind gust at Roanoke or other regional locations — 40 mph sustained winds probably won’t occur, though, at least anywhere below the 4,000-plus ridgetops, just because that’s usually not the nature of these Arctic cold frontal events. Do expect 20-35 mph sustained winds with 50 mph gusts, at least, during this time frame. There will likely be scattered power outages. And it will be cold wind, with highs probably not getting out of the 30s anywhere on Friday.
There will be some precipitation, too — a good chance of quick-hitting rain showers, perhaps accompanied by thunder or a gust of wind, ahead of the cold front on Thursday, then upslope snow showers with the northwest winds climbing the Appalachians overnight Thursday into Friday. Several counties of West Virginia remain under a winter storm watch with 5-plus inches expected on west-facing slopes and in higher elevations, areas that will keep getting pounded by snow squalls into Saturday. This appears to be a strong enough upslope event that there will be some spillover into western Virginia — expect to see off and on snow showers early Friday in the New River Valley and west of I-81, with perhaps a few snow showers blowing even farther east into the Roanoke Valley and even some of the western Piedmont. Just by having such strong winds, it’s going to be hard to keep at least a few snowflakes from blowing into Roanoke. As for the rain — the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is only predicting 1/4 to 1/2 inch for most of our region, and it seems these predictions have been a category too high for the past several rain events. There may be some heavy downpours, but not long-lasting. Any rain helps the dryness, though.
On that score — here is the HPC’s new experimental 7-day precipitation product, which shows rather copious rains over the next week. This would be the result of the post-Christmas storm we have been talking about, and likely presuming a track west of us that enhances southeasterly upslope flow from the Atlantic to the Blue Ridge, and flushes in milder air for a couple of days after near-seasonal cold hangs in through Christmas or so. Some models have started to bring the storm farther east, a trend that needs to be monitored, especially with some evidence that blocking features in Canada could force a farther south/east track. If it ends up a coastal storm, snow potential would be high locally; a track west of us, mostly rain; and near or just east of us, perhaps some of both. And there’s always a chance we don’t get much of either. That seems to be the recent local luck with moisture.
December 19, 2012 - 7:00 PM
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Hi Folks,
I’ll be flying into Roanoke Friday around 12 noon on a Dash-8 turboprop. I’m worried about the winds for Friday. Any chance those 60+ miles winds will make flying too dangerous? Thanks!
I’m not an expert in aviation but we have a couple of commenters who are. Certainly will make for a bumpy flight. I’d check with Roanoke airport or NWS-Blacksburg before making that trip.
Just saw a post on Twitter that parts of Russia are having their harshest winter in 70 years — which is saying a lot, being Russia.
Today’s initialization of the Euro shows the lowest heights — where the troposphere or lowest layer of atmosphere is “thinnest” weighed down by coldest temperatures — over Russia, the pinks and purples.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro500mbHGHTNH000.gif
If that ever pours over the pole through Canada in our direction, it will get pipe-busting cold. Just now seeing a little more of the cold flow into Canada.
Kevin,
If the post Xmas storm were to be coastal, would we get as much snow as Dec. 18/19, 2009?
Hard to be that specific, Newman, but it would certainly be within the range of possibilities.
My best guess right now is eastern Ohio Valley track then popping a new coastal low north of us. Probably a rain event for us, possibly start as wintry mix. Subject to change. Some very good meteorologists are in more extreme west and east camps.
So HPC estimates that Roanoke and the entire I-81 corridor in SW Virginia (down to Wytheville, at least) will get 1.5 inches in the next 7+ days??? OK, everyone together now, musical conductor Griggsy leads us in a song for the HPC: “Beautiful dreamer, wake unto me …..!!!”
It is an experimental product — and many experiments do not succeed.
Nick of Ellett Valley, how on earth have you been? And WHERE have you been? Jared has been doing a ….. er, …… “mind-bending” job as leader of the Snow Lovers for the past 5 weeks or so.
To answer your questions from the previous thread, we were on vacation in SE Tenn., then Vicksburg and Natchez in western Miss., then on to Lafayette, Louisiana. My wife took the driving tour of the Vicksburg battlefield, and I stopped in to see the visitor center there on the morning we left Vburg. That is the last place where I have been that saw over an inch of rain from a rainstorm. Vburg got 3.25 inches that Saturday and Sunday.
Hey, I hope that HPC is right, and I will be moderately happy if they are even half right. But it all comes down to what I learned years ago from this guy named Myatt who runs a weather blog in these parts. “Drought begets more drought.” Unfortunately that has been happening consistently around Roanoke and the eastern half of the NRV for the last 10 weeks.
I just sent an email to friends in Omaha to see if they are enjoying their blizzard. We only had 2 blizzards when I lived there from 1986 to 1996. Some people get all the luck.
Replying to the first comment of this session.. and joe or quags may have more insight than I.. but it always seemed to me that no matter how bad I loathe a Dash-8 for the slow speeds, loudness, and vibration, it seems that they are more stable and less prone to the bumps and blowing around than a CRJ or other jets. Maybe it’s the mass of the propellers or something, but if I had my choice in wind, I’d fly a Dash-8.
Long day in the sky. Here in Long Beach, CA for the night. Headed for Beantown Thursday. Should be a fun day flying thru Draco tomorrow. Pretty ruff coming over from Jacksonville, FL earlier when we hit TX & NM.
Jay…Saw where you are flying into Roanoke Friday. Buckle-up! It’s going to be a wild ride in the Dash! Best to check with USlessAirways on flight status. Doubtful the flight will cancel unless the winds get above 45 knots on the surface. I would expect you will get at least moderate to severe turbulence going over the mountains below 10000 feet.
Rick, we just may get our “fun” soon. Chances looking better over the next 2-3 weeks. The after Christmas potential still there. May have to move that one up to start late on X-mas if the jetstream has anything to say about it. Very strong now
One snap shot from the new GFS coming in, this one for the day after Christmas — blue line showing extent of cold air is in northern Virginia even though the low is tracking well west.
http://tinyurl.com/bq3plpk
If that cold-air damming profile is more significant, could extend into our area next week. It is often more extensive than modeled, especially this far out. May not be a good thing though for anyone — could be more sleet/ice than snow. Snow lovers and snow haters are usually pretty united in hatred of ice.
GFS seems to want to remove the rex block before the storm develops, so it heads NE instead of working farther east before turning up the coasts. Those blocks often hang in longer than modeled.
A generous but pretty cold rain if this verifies.
Lots of thundersnow reports tonight with the Plains blizzard. Omaha and Des Moines have both had thundersnow.
Focusing on the nearer future — GFS at 21Z or about 4 p.m Friday slightly expands the snow area eastward with the upslope. Often the case that daytime sunshine triggers a bit of instability that leads to an increase in snow showers in the afternoon. I’m expecing to see some snow showers in Roanoke on Friday with no accumulation — wouldn’t rule out some whiteness in parts of the New River Valley if a squall gets set up right.
http://tinyurl.com/d6mdjec
Back to next week — GFS redevelops the low off the Virginia coast and spreads some light snow into much of western Virginia. Redeveloping lows on the coast usually don’t do much for us here snow-wise, so I would be skeptical of the particular solution, at least in regard specifically to Southwest Virginia. Wondering if it’s starting to move the whole thing east.
About to sign off for evening.
More good news from DT! Models shift further east over night!
At 6:00, 40*, little wind, very few visible stars.
Some folks on DT’s page are talking this could be a Miller A. What exactly is that again?
It was the brightest red sky this morning! “Red sky in the morning, sailors take warning!” Going out to make sure all of the Christmas decorations are secure. Checking the generator to make sure it is ready to go too. May bring an arm load or two of wood to top off the pile.
Currently 33 with cloudy skies and a slight breeze.
Miller A is what you want for snow in Virginia — low forms near or in Gulf then moves up East Coast. Dec. 18-19, 2009, was a Miller A. So was last Feb. 19; March 1, 2009; and Feb. 28, 2005 recently. Big 1996 and 1993 snowstorms were Miller As, but most end up with less than a foot of snow, though many produce 4-12 inches. Every now and then there’s a wintertime Miller A that DOES NOT snow on our part of Virginia because it’s too mild to our north and west but in this case Arctic air would appear to be well placed IF (still a big if) a Miller A does develop next week. It’s not so important how cold it is already on us just ahead of a Miller A but how much Arctic air it can pull down from the north and west and straight overhead (in a sense) through dynamic cooling — last Feb 19 was prime example of that.
0Z Euro is actually not far off that with the second piece of energy next week. Takes an initial weak low to the northwest, then a stronger second low on an Atlanta to New York City path.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS168.gif
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS192.gif
If this run ends up literally being right, we would get some initial overrunning cold rain (maybe patchy freezing rain/sleet to start) and then possibly be in a dry slot between snow west and rain east. But at this distance the important thing isn’t the details of the model run itself, but the trend from previous runs. Both the GFS and Euro are much closer to a winter storm next week than earlier runs, but not there yet. Will they keep trending east? Low pressures systems usually do not take an Atlanta-New York City track. They usually go east or west of that line.
Kevin, is the 06Z GFS worth considering? I’m learning, but it looks like the post Xmas storm is out to sea. Please correct me if I’m wrong.
Weather service forecasts now include some rain/snow languague for Christmas Eve through Wednesday next week — mostly rain. Still favoring a little more western track as the modeling shows now. Makes sense based on current data. We’ll see where it goes.
Wow, Newman, the 6Z GFS is out to sea with the second low next week. That is the first run with anything close to that. It has made a huge shift EAST from 0Z. That may actually be a good development for snow lovers, since the GFS is usually too far south and east with coastal storms at this time frame. Watch the low below jump from SC to way offshore:
http://tinyurl.com/d8dqrwc
http://tinyurl.com/cye5exl
Many forecasters don’t consider the “off-hour runs” (6Z and 18Z) very important, especially at this distance. They mostly recycle input data from the previous run (0Z and 12Z). NWS balloon launches, for instance, are timed to coincide with the 0Z and 12Z runs. So the 6Z is kind of a second opinion on the 0Z run.
Back to the short range: High wind watches are now high wind warnings, winter storm watches in WVa are now winter storm warnings. And rain is streaming into the far southwest corner of Virginia already.
HPC has raised rainfall estimates to .50-.75 over next 24 hours in much of our region.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif
Judging by the breadth and intensity of the rain area on radar, I think there may reason for that.
http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/2012/04/10883/
Weather.com predicting 1-3 inches of snow for nrv tomorrow night…too high?
Weather.com usually overpredicts snow to the east in an upslope-driven situation. Seems to be lacking a very precise elevation grid on forecasts in our area. Wouldn’t rule out some white ground around there if snow squalls align just so. 1 inch would seem to be about the upper end of possibilities in most of NRV and not likely.
I really hope we beat this rain/wind event today while traveling west. It is just to Smyth County, but we aren’t leaving until closer to 2 or 3 pm today. We will be nestled in the valley between Walker and Brushy Mountains, and I fully expect to see snow there soon.
DT just put out a preliminary early look at snow accumulations for the 26th-27th storm and has Roanoke County from what it looks like barely in the 2-4″ zone.
Looks like we’re about to get very wet!
On our way to Snowshoe…just passed Iron Gate. Looking forward to some very interesting weather. Up to 18 inches of snow possible. Hopefully we can bring that back with us
Most forecasts have said 0.5-1.0″ of rain. That means we’ll get under a quarter-inch, if recent history holds true again…
But, the Radar returns look more promising. However, I’ve said that before too…
Scott, DT has been talking up this storm to be more powerful then that. He said that is just totals from a model, not sure which one. Yesterday he said models showing the storm to be pretty powerful with snow accumulating in feet! I am not going to get my hopes up because things will probably go wrong and the storm will turn and go into Chicago! LOL If this isnt it maybe the pattern changer will be the next storm. DT still thinks its going to be very cold in January and February!
As a snow lover, all I can say is at this point, I’ll take any and as much wet weather as we can get. The ponds and rivers look like August.
Definitely right about weather.com over-predicting the upslope snows…I live in Max Meadows (just east of Wytheville); they commonly put us in at least 1-3 inches if not 3-5 with these events, and we rarely ever get a dusting. Scott Saunders…as far as DT’s predictions for snow accumulations…links or it didn’t happen
Not sure the turbulence will be all that bad..always possible
in vcnty of ridges on the way in..but winds now more southerly
paralleling the ridges.
Even as I type this there isnt much low level turbc down that way..
its all confined to area closer to the circulation of the low .
West of Chicago from 6000ft to 16000ft…and an area from
Grand Rapids to Buffalo from 5000ft to 12000ft.
ROA will go to a west wind around daybreak. Itll be bumpy
as always as it crosses the ridges…but not Mayan type turbc…IMO.
DC, give hokkar when whatever starts your way so I can keep Poor Mt on my screen. Already down to 34* on top of Bent Mt.
Glad I am going to be in Giles during this storm coming! 12z gfs has come out and has the low over eastern NC! Says western VA would be toss up between ice and snow! He has said all along he thinks it will be just off the coast of NC. If that’s the case most likely snow for Giles!
Hollar.
Scott, can you post that chart here. I don’t do facepaint.
Anybody got the link to the clown map? First time I’ve asked this week, but have asked at least a dozen times in the last several years. If I could lose a bad cold as easy as that map, I’d be on to something.
area described above..as it moves east..
SIGMET OSCAR 1 VALID UNTIL 202108
OH
FROM DXO TO AIR TO HNN TO CVG TO FWA TO DXO
OCNL SEV TURB BLW 120. DUE TO STG LOW LVL WNDS. RPTD BY ACFT.
CONDS CONTG BYD 2108Z
…Detroit to Pittsburgh area..to Henderson WVA..to Cincinatti back to Detroit..svr turbc below 12000ft…till about 4pm eastern..
Today must FINALLY be our long awaited, PATTERN CHANGER ushering in 2 cold, winter days of wind and snow showers preceded by a soaking rain that flips the switch so to speak. Then we go into a seasonable spell, but too warm to snow, but the last few days of December into mid-January look VERY interesting, much more persistent cold and many threats of wintry precipitation. If this doesn’t materialize I may just have to take a swan dive off the Burger King with fellow snow/cold lover Jared….hahaha…JUST KIDDING!! I truly sense a different game in town for the month of January and maybe February. My snow blower is willing and able, dusted off the ol’ gloves, snow boots and shovel and some hot cider and brandy await!!!
Yes folks, ask Jared…there is a chart that DT posted for the 26th-27th that looks like our area is barely in a 2-4″ zone of snow…did I say I believe it….NO. Just was noting it. You guys act like I’m making that up. Look for yourself, I’m not sure how to transfer links from WX Risk to a blog site, I know how to share it on Facebook!
Surprise, surprise…we’re in a dry slot of the precipitation shield.
Laying down a rain/ice/snow line for a system nearly a week out is an exercise in futility.
One question I have watching aome of the model evolution is how far south the low would form. Not seeing much indication yet it would start near the Gulf Coast. Would limit our moisture and maybe our cold air (talking strictly about SW Virginia) if it doesnt dig south far enough. Definitely still time to evolve further. Big steps toward winter storm potential on recent model runs, but the sale isnt closed yet.
@ wdbrand-rke. co. 1827′
Here’s a link for 120 hr. GFS snowfall. Pick your station from the map.
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.htm
We did get a brief bit of sleet in Blacksburg before noon, but not much. Just enough to take notice.
Scott, you should see the Tease DT put out on Facebook about an hour ago! Valid January 2nd and had Virginia getting feet of snow. LOL NOt sure what model it was.
I’m ringing a bell outside Walmart tomorrow. Will I need a jacket?
Snowing quite hard w some sleet mixed in at Snowshoe. Great for first trip
If these trends hold, we’ll probably end up with what Kevin calls a “crunchy storm”.
I really don’t like those, but at least they turn the ground white.
Few sleet pellets mixed in very light rain here at 1500 ft in South Roanoke, 40 degrees.
Sleet and rain mix in Vinton.
Saw a little sleet bouncing off vehicle near Valley View Mall a few minutes ago. Early rain has dried up, causing evaporational cooling in pockets aloft, enough to freeze raindrops.
I wonder if we have a classic cold air wedge in place here or if the lower temps are simply due to the heavy cloud cover. Either way, its about 20 degrees colder than it was yesterday at this time (44 deg at CHO)
Jared, IF (that’s a huge if)we get more snow in Greene than you do in Giles, we’d probably also warn their local Burger Kings.
Scott, the Ruckersville BK’s roof is relatively low to the ground. If it gets that bad, I’ll suggest the antique shop across 33. Its a two story building.
There is a little sleet mixed in the rain here as well.
Henry: I think you will need a coat, gloves, earmuffs or hat and possibly long underwear. The wind will make it feel very cold on top of temps in the thirties.
Raining near the airport now – pretty steady rain.
We’ve got sleet mixing in with the rain here in Blacksburg. I don’t recall seeing that in the forecast.
Looks like Blizzard Warnings have been posted along part of the Eastern border of WV. Does not include Snowshoe at this time.
Sleet mixed in with the rain in SW county near Tanglewood.
This is like a 10-degree temperature bust on most projected highs today. Clouds, rain got here early, some weak wedging on east/southeast winds, and a lot of evaporational cooling as the dry air ate most of the first couple of hours of rain.
“Crunchy storm” that Brandon R refers to with comment 53 at 1:52 p.m. refers to what we often get here in a cold-air damming setup with thick Gulf moisture overriding it. We get snow — then sleet — then ice — sometimes rain at the end, sometimes back to snow. It forms a crunchy multi-layer enamel like coating on the ground.
Last “crunchy storm” I can remember here was mid-December 2011, a snow to sleet to ice episode. Last of the 3 major storms of 2009-10 winter was something like that, though the vast majority was snow and sleet/ice were pretty minor. We had several in the 2000-04 period, not as frequent since.
Latest GFS would be actually be the reverse next week, rain at outset, to mix, to snow.
I can’t understand why the Snowshoe area isn’t also under a blizzard warning if any area within 50 miles is under one. That place is it’s own microclimate and sometimes squeezes snow out of individual clouds (no joke). It’s the roughest, rawest, windiest, coldest place I’ve ever been.
I’m not sure exactly why, but it seemed like (around Roanoke anyway) the forecasts for transformations from Rain to Snow would rarely materialize. You could count on forecast for snow eventually changing to sleet/rain though. Usually if it started as rain, that’s what you were stuck with.
It has pretty much poured the rain in Abingdon since 10am today. No sleet or frozen precip. Temps running in the 40′s. Snowfall prediction map shows 2-4 here but NWS not coming into line with that. We are not under a WWA but Smyth Co is. Rain is welcome and maybe by this time tomorrow the ground will be white. Got to get home and get some wood in.
Went over to Riner this afternoon and when I left it was raining but as I got back here to Dopplerville – very little rain- just a few sprinkles but radar looks like more on the way.. It is 35 and I doubt we got above 38 today. Some wind but not bad. Most of the wind has been from the south/southeast today.
John, largely agree with you. Rain to snow transitions don’t ever seem to materialize in the Roanoke area when it involves cold air advection on northwest winds on the backside of a low. Too much low-level downslope drying. If dynamic or evaporational cooling is involved, I have seen that transition work a few times.
“Maestro” Griggsy at work. “Mine eyes have seen the glory of the coming of the RAIN ….” Yes, real rain, not just the dribbles that have been dampening the driveway once a week or so. Actually saw a small flow in the curb area of the last street that I delivered to (Troutland Avenue, NW). First time I have seen that in what seems like a long time. It was raining all the way to home, but sure enough, it was very apparent that our subdivision has received a lot less so far than everywhere else I have been. Typical. But I have been hearing the downspout making noises for the last ten minutes, so ….
Henry, you asked about needing a jacket tomorrow outside Walmart. I definitely would wear one myself because I am old, but whether I would go the full 9 yards with the scarf or dickey, two stocking caps, thick gloves, a sweater under the jacket, etc., depends very much on whether you will be exposed to the big westerly winds or not. If your position will be on the east side of the building, it will simply be a bit colder than normal for a typical late Dec. day. But if you will be on the west side, go the full 9 yards. You won’t even have the advantage of almost continuously walking like most of us letter carriers.
It will be cold and windy, Henry. Doug’s advice seems good. You’ll probably see snowflakes at times.
I think that I have a more “stringent” standard for stuff falling out of the sky to be considered sleet than most people. For a good part of the afternoon after 2:00, I could hear the tiny raindrops pouncing on the metal roof of the postal truck. But I wouldn’t consider any of what I saw as sleet. A few of the raindrops may have bounced up a 1/4 inch or so, but what I consider “real sleet” has to bounce at least 3/4 of an inch off a flat metal surface. That was definitely the case with that December 2010 snow/sleet storm (I think you may have typed the wrong year above, Weather Wizard …). At one point during midday I was taking a fairly big package from the truck to a customer, and the sleet was bouncing 6 inches. No joke.
Oh, Henry (no, I was not calling you a candy bar, sorry about the unintended pun), I also recommend lip balm, gloss, whatever you want to call it. Plus lotion for your cheeks. If nothing else, sunscreen lotion would work. anything to keep your face moisturized AMAP.
I have a favor to ask …. will any of you be willing to call me up by Oh-dark-30 tomorrow morning and remind me to do what I have just recommended about the lotion? Just ignore the sound of my wife screaming bloody murder for having been awakened during her best sleeping hours.
Station showing 0.09″. Not sure I trust the gauge on the PWS, but since I brought all the other ones, I reckon I have to. Any hoo, I said thanks for what I got.
Doug: What I saw was obviously sleet, ice particles that bounced a few inches off my car hood and windshield. Weren’t a lot of them, but easily met any reasonable definition of sleet.
What’s the chances of 18Z GFS happening? DT says this run buries western Virginia in snow! Oh please let this be the storm path!!! LOL I think I’m losing it!
18Z GFS goes out to sea with storm and buries North Carolina more than Virginia — taken very literally. But he probably means that a path like that probably would dump big snow in western Virginia, rather than what the literal model output shows.
That said, snow lovers should be encouraged some when the GFS starts kicking out out-to-sea solutions instead of far inland. It’s a major shift east, and out-to-sea tracks usually pull a bit back to the northwest.
Here’s the 48-hour precipitation output on the 18Z GFS through the afternoon of 12/27, most of which would be snow. Generally 10+ inches along Va-NC border and south, trending back some as you head north. Would be solid snow areawide. Also total fantasy at this point, but store it away for future reference, not so much for the details of track and amounts but the continued trend eastward.
http://tinyurl.com/d7k94c2
Low this morning was 33, high only made it up to 44 here.Was calling for low 50`s but was not even close.Rain now and 41.I`m not gonna even think about this next storm till at least Chrismas day.Models will change 100 different times between now and then.
Matt (comment 66)-those blizzard warnings are issued out of the NWS-Sterling, which seems to have a “thing” for blizzard warnings (see Hurricane Sandy). Pocahontas County, WV (Snowshoe) is handled by the NWS-Charleston, WV and tend to be more conservative (like NWS-Blacksburg) when it comes to blizzard warnings. Regardless, blizzard conditions are likely anywhere above 3,000′ along the WV/VA and TN/NC border over the next 36 hours.
Hey Brian from Goodview keep us all posted on whats happening up there at Snowshoe and how hard and how much snow is acculating.Thanks Mike!
NWS-Blacksburg’s forecast discussion mentions the potential for blizzard conditions along the higher ridges of WVa — more later on Friday than earlier. (Also notes potential for accumulating ice/snow after Christmas, though forecasts are sticking with warmer temps and mostly rain for now.)
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=RNK&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
I’ve driven smack into those blizzard conditions in the higher elevations of West Virginia during upslope events in the past. Somehow I think Blacksburg Mike probably has too.
Sleet is sleet…
I know of no source that that talks about
the percentage of a raindrop that has to have a bit
of ice to be called sleet.
Sleet can be mixed rain and snow. (snowy ice at the drops nucleus)
Theres hard frozen ice bits where the air near the surface is
below freezing.
Then there is graupel.
Kevins sleet could be graupel thats mushy or mostly liquid
on its perimeter.
Sleet imbedded in mostly water that freezes on impact is extremely
hazardous to flying. Much more so than snow.
Much testing has been done by engineers
on deicing aircraft and changes made to the procedures since the infamous
Air Florida crash in DC that went into the Potomac River in 1982.
High was midnight at 43*. Sho ain’t been no heat wave since then.