Debuting the Weather Journal “snow meter” — week ahead likely snowless
The inaugural “Weather Journal snow meter” appears in Monday’s editions of The Roanoke Times. It is a feature I will be doing in each Monday morning’s paper (and here on the blog) for the next 3 1/2 months or so rating our chances of getting at least 1 inch of snow during the next week — Monday through Sunday — at Roanoke (Regional Airport) and Blacksburg (National Weather Service office) with zero snowflakes being no chance and 10 snowflakes being certainty. Below I’m reprinting the “snow meter” from what appears in the paper. I am keeping track of my accuracy through a highly simplified “win-loss” record that I explain in the text. It also explains the general weather pattern for the next week, so it will suffice to describe what to expect this week in our weather.
Weather Journal snow meter, 12/2-12/8:
Roanoke * (1 snowflake out of 10)
Blacksburg: ** (2 snowflakes out of 10)
Outlook: The first half of the coming week will be mild, with highs in the 60s to near 70, as 
west-southwesterly flow around a strong low in the Pacific Northwest sweeps warmer air across the country. By midweek (Wednesday morning weather map at left) and again toward the late part of the weekend, storm systems to our northwest will swing cold fronts through, bringing shots of air from Canada. The later one may be particularly strong, but may not arrive in time for this week’s snow meter. Even if it does, it’s doubtful it would produce anything more than typical mountain snow showers on northwest winds. An inch or more of snow is unlikely under any reasonable scenarios this week, but the slim possibility of snowflakes late Sunday is the only reason I’m not handing out a pair of zeroes on this inaugural snow meter.
Season to date: Through the season I’ll give myself a win-loss record. For that purpose, five flakes or more will count as if I’m saying it will snow an inch, and fewer than five will count as if I’m saying it won’t. So if I say six flakes and it snows an inch, it’s a win for my prediction, but if it doesn’t, it’s a loss. Official snow on National Weather Service climate reports for the two sites counts, not what you or I measure in our yards. Current records: 0-0 for Roanoke, 0-0 for Blacksburg.
December 3, 2012 - 12:14 AM
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This looks to be loads of fun this winter, providing we get some of the white stuff. May we have 10′s abounding until April!
Thinking back — I definitely wouldn’t have pulled out a 10 on the Monday before Dec. 18-19, 2009, and maybe not even a 6-7 type guess. The previous weekend it looked like something MIGHT develop but not all that certain. I might have got burned with a 3 or 4 or something like that. The later two biggish snowstorms that winter looked pretty solid even several days before, so I probably would have gone at least 7 on those, though I remember the late January event looked like it might be a south miss toward midweek.
Late-week storm potential is going to be the hardest to nail with the time schedule on this. How about easy-picking Monday events this year to pad my record.
Nifty. I predict that you’ll end up with a near perfect record.
OK, several things to yak about.
1. Today’s low temp may be at 11:59 PM. It was 57 here at 11:30 last night and is there again now.
2. For those of you who are snow lovers and like reading stuff about what the PNA, AO, and NAO outlooks are saying, I posted three comments yesterday evening about what yesterday’s graphs looked like. Those links will probably still be valid for the same graphs through 8 AM today. HINT: Big news about the PNA.
3. Since you are using snowflakes, KM, to give your thoughts about upcoming snow, I am going to give today and tomorrow pictures of 10 Native Americans wearing sunglasses, especially for Roanoke and the locations warmer. Indian Summer! We had mid-January weather on October 8th, so the turnaround for today and tomorrow — late September or early October weather — is only fair.
4. Where are our newspapers?? MIA right now.
Kevin, I really like that. With all the criticism people are so quick to hand out to those willing to try to forecast weather, I have often wondered just how do you measure success, especially for more long term forecasts. That sounds like a very simple, but reasonably fair measure. After following your blog for several years, I predict you do well, 80% or better.
61.5*.
Kevin: I love the snow meter! It will be fun. May it stay in the 8-10 range all winter long.
I like your new snow meter idea Kevin. Will you be posting a cumulative running scorecard each week?
The temperature this morning was 44 before sunrise. Doesn’t look like snow this week.
Good luck Kevin! I agree Mon vs Fri storms will be key, although one of your strengths vis a vis forecasters is your advance analysis.
Just wanted to alert readers of this blog that I went to the NWS-Blacksburg open house a few weeks ago. They introduced us to the CoCoRaHs project. This is a nationwide network of citizen precipitation recorders for the NWS. Participants must report their findings each day so dedication is key. The website for even those who cannot participate is pretty neat. You can see station by station data of past 24 hr measurements. Very user friendly and graphically pleasing. They are looking for 10 volunteer stations per county, which we are well short of in our area.
http://www.cocorahs.org/
Interesting idea…I like it. The weather this weekend was fantastic. I was going to take advantage by playing a round of golf that I wasn’t planning on originally, but that didn’t happen as I was a bit ill yesterday morning. It was probably for the better, because my tee time was early and it was still in the 30′s then, and wouldn’t have hit the 50′s until probably the last 6 or so holes. But by afternoon it felt great and I got a final mowing and leaf mulching effort completed. I was surprised at how breezy it was though. We got a few brief and very light rain showers, but nothing measurable. Now over 5″ dry for the year, but the good thing I did notice was that the ground is starting to hold onto some moisture in places…it’s not completely bone dry, but it’s not that far off either.
There goes the neighborhood! LOL!
Kevin, brave man you are with the flake-o-meter.
If I do the same thing, I’ll end up 0-15. Hope you fair better than I.
Will update my website today as well. I see changes coming for the colder and snowier after December 16.
Last winter, there would have been no excuse for going anything less than maybe 2-3 losses. The Feb. 19 snow week would have been difficult because that event happened on a Sunday, the farthest in time away from Monday. And there would have been the further complication of figuring out whether that snow lasted past midnight or not in the next week’s picks. And then there was the clipper in early March that snowed an inch at Blacksburg but not at Roanoke and underperformed everywhere south of US 460.
A more typical winter, I’m just hoping to break .500. Too many vague Thursday-Sunday events, and Blacksburg will occasionally burn me getting either 0.9 or 1.1 on an upslope event.
I love the snow meter! May it continually stay in the 8-10 range all winter long!
Any ideas for what Saturday’s weather will be in the DC area? I’ll be on a trip with my 3rd grade daughter to the White House.
Kevin, just remember that batting .333 is really darn good in baseball!
I’ll keep that in mind, Other John, if my average starts tanking.
I’m planning to do this 15 weeks. I figure in that time we’ll have at least 5 slow pitches over the plate — weeks it obviously won’t snow, like this one — so if I can just break even on the rest that would be 10-5.
Just a thought, Kevin. I really like the idea of the snow meter, so if this drought continues into next spring/summer, perhaps you could do a raindrop meter? I know showers are a little harder to predict, but it might be worth considering… Of course, I’m hoping we have enough snow (and rain, as you pointed out to me a few posts ago) that the drought will be gone by next March/April.
What a fun idea- I want to see some flakes on the old snow meter the week of Christmas to give us some hope whether the forecast calls for snow or highs in the 70′s all week! We are due for a white Christmas.
Travis: Wouldn’t dare do that in summer, with the isolated unpredictable storms that dump 2 inches on one spot and nothing 5 miles away.
May try to think of something severe-weather oriented for warmer seasons.
Well the TorCon Index is already taken!
Kevin….you could even go THE WEATHER CHANNEL ROUTE and name the big uns’ with your favorite bloggers like…FROSTY GRIGGSY, SNOWSTORM SAUNDERS, WINTER STORM WATCH DOPPLER CAROL, WHITE OUT NURSE SNOW, WIND CHILL QUAGMIRE…to name a few….hahahahahahahahahaha!!!
And HO-HO HokieTrax! Love the snow meter idea Kevin!
Haha!!! That is funny scott! We can all be famous in our little blogsphere!
Where’s da paper???????
What a great idea! My sister Kat would have LOVED this idea so much. She would have it posted on her facebook wall by now for sure. I can’t wait to see what this winter brings! We gotta have at least one big one for Kat.
Just watched a video on DT’s website explaining the NAO, PNA, and polar vortex for the next couple weeks. He concurs with Quags and says big changes are coming the weekend of the 15th.
Yes every snowstorm we have this winter in SW Virginia will be named for the late Kat Werner.
Roanoke will set a record Dec. 3 high today, as the 3 pm temperature of 72 exceeds the precious record of 70 from 1943. Blacksburg appears to be close to its record of 71 from 1982. Yes, before today, th
Roanoke will set a record Dec. 3 high today, as the 3 pm temperature of 72 exceeds the precious record of 70 from 1943. Blacksburg appears to be close to its record of 71 from 1982. Yes, before today, this was a rare date in which Blacksburg’s record high was warmer than Roanoke’s.
Kevin, I suggest that you put that snow meter in the freezer for a couple days or those flakes will turn to plain ole water. If the weather does not change we may have to have a meter predicting record highs.
Yes, we MUST name our snows – all of them after Kat. They could be Kat 1, Kat 2, Kat 3,
It was awesome weather out there today. I was outside working with some folks and we all agreed that we are going to get slammed with the cold weather one of these days. Today was too good to be true. But we also mentioned we really need the moisture and hope it does not come in the form of ice.
Matt in Blacksburg – you were at the NWS Open House – I missed seeing you. I, too, heard about the CoCoRaHs project and it is something I am seriously considering doing. Do you have to have special equipment to measure the snow?
Veteran forecaster Wes Junker of the Capital Weather Gang (formerly with HPC) not sold on the cold/snow talk in the East next couple of weeks.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/long-range-look-pattern-to-remain-warmer-than-normal-next-two-weeks/2012/12/03/d27458d0-3d8c-11e2-bca3-aadc9b7e29c5_blog.html
CPC agrees with Junker:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
My thoughts: Beginning with weekend/early next week cold front, we start taking steps toward a colder pattern. But no dam-break that floods us with cold air next several weeks, at least yet. May even be some more mild/warm days later this month, between the cold fronts, but probably not record-challengers like today/Tuesday. Thinking most of the cold/storminess mid-December is focused on central U.S. Will gradually build/shift east later in month/early January. Just some ideas from what I see right now.
Patience is advised for snow lovers. I think the pattern is building long-term in your favor. For snow haters, a “potential” pattern is still 1 that hasn’t happened yet, and can go off the tracks. I don’t think we’ll fend off the cold this winter as we did last, but snow is a question mark.
Boy, am I ever angry at the Klingons. They must have “cloaked” my 6:07 AM comment this morning. Not a single comment about the oscillations nor my Indian Summer stuff. ….. sigh …..
Doug, I’ll throw in this about the oscillations: As the graphs show, there are signs the PNA- breaks down as the Pacific vortex finally moves inland and is replaced by at least weak high pressure. The NAO may go negative but possible the blocking sets up too far east of the ideal location for an Eastern U.S. trough — at least to start. Junker alluded to that in the blog post of his I linked to.
Dec. 2nd actuals vs. the Accuweather forecast of Nov. 26th for yesterday. Accuweather predicted a high of 66 and a low of 46 for Roanoke. Actuals were 67 and 35. Again way off for the morning low, but they get an A for the forecasted high. C+
Today? Actuals so far are 72 and 54, according to wunderground. ACCU’s forecast? 67 and 44. Not so good. C-, unless the low falls close to 51 or 50 by 11:59 PM.
wd, Brent Watts of WDBJ7 was talking about you at 5:20 PM, an hour ago. Not by name, but he said “Lows tonight will be 48 or so at Roanoke airport, and some of the warmer locations may not fall below 50.” I give a 90% chance that you will stay above 50 between midnight and 8 AM, and even a 60% chance for me.
Why don’t we all get used to the fact that this LONG ADVERTISED weather pattern change to a colder/snowier pattern is going to be a bust! It’s going to be a repeat of last winter!!
Scott: It’s Dec. 3. Chill.
It’s NOT going to be the second-warmest winter on record, so it won’t be a repeat. I’d give 10 snowflakes on that. Or 10 icicles or whatever.
Another thing: The term “pattern change” is not defined by the thermometer at one’s house. The atmospheric pattern over North America could undergo very deep, fundamental changes and our part of the country stay similarly warm. COULD, I said, not a forecast. The pattern change WILL happen but may not mean we instantaneously freeze over.
Just been reading a lot from various people on WX RISK site and has me worried. Not DT’s predictions but stuff all these other people keep saying about other meteorologists predictions!!
and looked through my winter weather data from last “record breaking winter”..we NEVER got to 70 or above at all last December, this year will be at least a good 3 days!!! Reminds me of the WARM winter of 1984!
There are common threads in a lot of these seemingly dissimilar forecasts. Most agree that a pattern shift is happening about mid-month, but not on the results for the East, at least the immediate ones. Getting the PNA-/Pac NW vortex to end by itself would be a positive step for snow lovers, whether it results in immediate cold/snow our our window or not. One step at a time.
3 days isn’t nearly enough to declare a trend for 90. Would be just as true if our temps were 20+ below normal right now.
Tomorrow’s record high for Roanoke is 76, set in 1982. 1982-83 turned into a 35-inch snow winter for Roanoke with a big wallop in February. We’re in the opening minutes of a long game.
And the Chairman of the Snow-Haters Club is not AT ALL optimistic about a warm or even normal winter for temps, nor that Roanoke’s seasonal snowfall total will stay under 14 inches. Although the latter is a definite possibility, because of the dryness. To Scott Saunders: I agree with Kevin completely. “Chill.” I even think that there is a definite possibility of an extremely severe Arctic outbreak in either late December or January, with the AO tumbling to -5, etc.
I will become truly optimistic when (more like IF!!) both the AO and NAO go positive (at least +0.7) and stay there for at least 8 days. Such a movement would make it very likely IMO that the pattern change would be happening to warm and that the following two months would be warmer than normal. Brent Watts showed the temp in Dawson, British Columbia (east of central Alaska) today. -31 F!! There is no guarantee that such ridiculously cold air like that (of course, it wouldn’t be nearly that cold by the time it reached here) will ever invade the eastern USA, but it is still a very real possibility.
Scott…
just remember that DT was the one that predicted Irene, Issac & Sandy much better than most of the other Mets out there. Henry M today at American WX declared winter dead already. I have faith that the PNA will flip to + after mid December & the – west based NAO will be very strong.
The new Euro weeklies show great promise after December 16 for the east coast for a potential major snow event for the Mid Atlantic. Week 4 of the Euro weeklies also are beginning to latch onto another possible snow event somewhere around Christmas. Don’t let the “Weather Weenies” get you down. Change will be coming for colder after December 14.
Time for Football! Go Skins!!!
Will update my website Tuesday.
Woop woop!! Snow talk!! Thanks Kevin and all for the info on they snowfall, snowpack history. My brother and I were just talking about that because he said my mom had brought that up when she talked to him on the phone tonight. I think she’s just not remembering things well. I, on the other hand, DO remember some of the snow in the 60s, having been born and a child of that era. I wonder if that is what my mom is remembering. Boy I miss those days. I will keep my eye out for more flakes on the snowflake meter!
Be kind to your mom, Tina. I usually avoid contradicting older folks on their weather memories. Even if every memory isn’t perfect, it’s usually based on something. I even find my weather memory isn’t flawless when I look back at records of events or seasons I’ve lived through. Our minds tend to focus on the most extreme elements and stretch those in time and intensity.
Ditto, Tina B and Kevin. I may be wrong about the year in which the snow piles at the grocery store happened. But I do remember that it was during my Christmas break, and it was at least as late as 1968. Could have been Dec. 1970. I was driving a taxicab during Xmas break 1969, I am sure of that.
That Christmas break was notorious for being bitterly cold. On one morning when it was about 5* I drove over two RR tracks and immediately heard an enormous bang. Suddenly the taxi lost power, and the speedometer was not working. No wonder. The battery had exploded. Once I learned that I wasn’t in danger and that I had done nothing wrong …. it was actually pretty funny.
Oh Kevin, I would NEVER contradict my mom on that. No, I let her have those memories. I was just wondering if there was at least one winter possibly in her childhood that stuck in her mind. Like the one winter in the late 60s early 70s where I remember snow being so deep it was almost over my head. In reality it was probably only 12 inches or so but we did make a snow fort that year, so I probably remember building the snow walls that were up over my head.