Drought and warmth in the paper on this cold December day
It’s a cloudy, chilly, actually quite-December-feeling day outside, a rarity of late. Highs will be stuck in the 40s today, and likely down in the 20s many locations tonight, if it clears in time. The clouds are the back edge of a weak storm system forming on the front kicking a little moisture back over us — not enough for precipitation, most likely, but enough for overcast skies. We’ll gradually get milder into the weekend, with more 50s highs, maybe even some 60s again by the weekend, before the next front chops our temperatures down again.
A couple of weather-related links from today’s Roanoke Times:
Not “panic time” yet as drought hits, by Matt Chittum. Before you ask — it was the 7th driest November at Roanoke and 8th at Blacksburg, but for some rain gauge locations noted it was the driest, as noted by National Weather Service hydrologist Peter Corrigan.
And here’s today’s Weather Journal column, looking at the balmy first 10 days of December — and my continued expectations that this will NOT be the mode for the entire winter.
As for next week’s storm system — the models are still showing it developing in various forms. I’m still leaning to this NOT being a significant winter storm for Southwest Virginia, and the latest model runs on the Euro and GFS would support that. Unfortunately, I’m not even convinced it will be much of a rainmaker locally to help with the dryness. Still lots of time for things to change. We’ll keep an eye on it, and I’ll have a more complete update on it here in the next day or two.
December 12, 2012 - 11:41 AM
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Did anyone see something on the weather channel about a christmas eve noreaster? Or was i seeing things
Garrett Bastardi from Firsthandweather thinks its going to be a monster storm and has snow west of 81, figures us over on the east side of the Blue Ridge gets screwed again. LOL oh well, maybe I will get treated to some snow while I am in Giles between Christmas and New Years! Just hope to see the ground covered this year to where you cant see any grass. Didnt happen last year!
Just read on Facebook that Dave Tolleris is saying all of Virginia has a possibility to getting snow from a Christmas Eve storm! That ole Tolleris is quite the tease. LOL
Followed Griggsy’s recommendation on DT’s weather discussion video and found it educational and entertaining. SO, the QBO is the reason for the mildness as of late? Something I’ve never heard of, but then again, I majored in preprofessional science, not meteorology. At least he did say that the pattern will change soon… BUT to pretty much dismiss next week’s storm producing anything of the frozen variety.
Accuweather has really chilled us down now starting on the 20th, after our brief spike back in the 50′s again. They have highs several days in the 30′s and many lower 40′s and even some nightly lows around 19-lower 20′s. Several shots of snow mentioned and a cold Christmas with 42 as a high. We’ll see but it looks much much more conducive for snow to materialize.
12Z GFS has the low right smack over us on Tuesday. Decent rain event.
http://tinyurl.com/cjt7f74
12Z Euro, taken very literally, would be a bummer for SW Virginia snow fans — nearly perfect path for a snow-maker in SW Virginia, but not enough cold air to wrap in to the storm.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS168.gif
Unleashes the Arctic chill on us a couple of days later, though.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif
Jared….Where is Greene County? Is that near Charlottesville? I think the pattern is finally changing Jared….I hope we get our big un’ soon. It’s long overdue and must satiate my thirst for snow soon!!
AWOV…(Airplane Watchers of Va)
Nice steady stream of traffic inbound into Atlanta
from the Northeast..today flights are flying inbound straight down
(or up really) the valley.. just about right over Roanoke and Pulaski..
Dumb question. I
Dumber poster that can’t keep his fingers where they should be. Is the big Low setting off Greenland[I think] and the two highs in Canada pushing these systems farther south?
The Climate Prediction Center isn’t on board the long-term cooldown after next week’s storm train:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/index.php
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
WD: Highs in Canada yes. A big low over Greenland would lead to “NAO+” pattern that would tend to lead to more west-to-east flow not so much north to south, so storms would not tend to dig as far south. Low closer to Newfoundland sometimes helps steer the storms over the U.S farther south.
Yeah, wd, I am pretty sure that what helps the NAO go/stay negative is WARM water near Greenland. Kevin, please, please either correct that statement or endorse it ASAP.
Kevin thanks for posting the CPC multi-day vitam ….. er, outlooks. Notice the persistent expectations (very high, purple and dark blues) of colder than normal temps all over Alaska on both outlooks. Just about every time I have looked at a CPC multiday outlook for at least the past two weeks, that feature is always there. Didn’t you say in previous winter(s) that generally whatever is happening in Alaska for temps, the opposite is often happening along the eastern USA? I wonder if those cold temps in Alaska are another result of the big low south of Alaska?
Yesterday it was a case of (to the music of “The hills are alive …” from the Sound of Music): “The Blog was alive, with the sound of comments, with celebrations they have sung for a couple of years ….” Of hopeful snow lovers, of course.
Any bets on whether either the Euro or GFS are showing a chance of snow next week along the I-81 corridor of SW Virginia by Saturday night? That would be much more impressive than what they are showing now.
Whether it snows or rains or remains dry here in the middle of next week, it sure looks likely (again, this is more than a week away, so it is subject to big change) that things will be warming up after that, because the 10 and especially 14-day outlooks of both the NAO and AO show them “coming up for air,” so to speak. Rising, practically to the neutral zone. If those outlooks hold, a Christmas storm would have to happen in somewhat unfavorable conditions for those two “tele-tubbies.”
Actually, if the Euro has the right track but is just 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) too warm with the 850-millibar temperatures, it could still be quite the snow maker.
The Euro has been good lately (which is quite embarassing for the most technologically advanced nation in the world), but I’m with DT. Rain, and maybe a chance of mixed precip. Even if it does snow, how could it accumulate unless it’s snowing gangbusters for several hours? Too much latent heat in the ground.
Euro tends to have a warm bias, but I’m also expecting rain at this point, maybe mix or snow at higher elevations. The Euro has not locked on a storm track yet, and I’m not so sure the Miller B-like storm jumping from west of us to the coast won’t end up being the one it eventually settles on.
If snow could accumulate 6-10 inches areawide on March 30, 2003, after 4 weeks of above-normal temps and 70-plus readings the day before, it could accumulate now … IF it snows hard enough.
Last Blog, Jen commented the Cherry Trees in Blacksburg were blooming? Was that a joke, I assume. Is it even possible for trees to be in bloom in mid-December? As for the snow potential, NWS has a high of 44 (Tuesday) and 43 (Wednesday) in Blacksburg, and obviously warmer in areas below 2,000′. No chance of snow next week.
I’m always amazed, Blacksburg Mike, that you take temperature predictions from the weather service at 7 days as a lock … when the meteorologists there don’t even take them or intend them that way.
I see a 44 for a week out, and I take it as meaning 34 to 54. This one could even be on the warm side of that if the low tracks west.
Whatever temperature the weather service or any other agency is predicting for the middle of next week is predicated on a particular track of a storm system. If that forecasted track changes, the projected high temperature will vary considerably. Any projected track of the mid-week storm next week is a “best guess” at this point.
Mike, I don’t know about cherry trees, but my sons in-laws had 3 potted patio apple trees sitting at the end of their driveway that bloomed in Dec. probably 5 years or so ago. Reason I know, they had apples on them in the fall and 3 of us commented and saw them blooming the same day, and this was in the morning. Way before beer thirty.
It’s possible the long period of below normal temperatures in November followed by the early December warmth tricked them into “thinking” this was spring. Next couple of mornings will end those blooms’ early spring pretty quickly.
It may be my own arrogance or inexperience, but I pay no attention to any advertised high or low temperature. My “high dollar” college scientific background says that low pressure systems make their “low temperature” depending on how intense they are, and things like sun angle, storm track, and elevation play an important part. I’d surmise that temperature forecasts are a “best guess- ten degrees either way” based on the current model runs, which change quite frequently!
Kevin – I do not take the temps 6-7 days out as a lock; however, the fact that the NWS “best guess” is not even close to cold enough for snow, is concerning for snow lovers like me. Just trying to maintain a sense of reality, and not get over excited for the inevitable let down. I have made a resolution with myself that I will not get excited for snow until I see the NWS has actually put the word “snow” in their forecast and their temps also are cold enough to support it. I do understand that the temps that far out are nothing more than a rough estimate, but when the estimate is not even close to what snow lovers want, I have concerns.
Possible, since the weather hadn’t been cold enough, long enough to drive the sap back into the roots, which would have let the trees put the sap into the tips for blooms.
Yes Scott we border Albemarle county to the north. You know how it has to be the perfect setup to get snow down in roanoke and NRV, well it has to be super perfect here on the east side of the Blue Ridge to see any snow! The cold air likes it on the west side of the mountains better it seems. Heck I might not see the ground covered again until 2020! LOL
Scott, where are you located?
B’burg Mike: For what it’s worth, I think it’s going to be mostly rain, too. I have some concern about our region getting in a “dry slot” with a Miller B-type setup/energy jumping the gap from inland to the coast and not even getting a decent drought-easing rain out of this.
If I were snow-metering it right now, I might go as high as 2 flakes out of 10 for Roanoke and 4 for Blacksburg. Blacksburg might even get an inch on the backside with upslope squalls. Most places west of Roanoke will probably see snowflakes next week … more on the backside upslope than with the initial storm. Subject to change, of course.
Though I do have to note … we had a high of 52 in Roanokeon our biggest snow day last year. Yeah, it was midnight, but …
Perusing the NWS-Blacksburg forecast discussion … they, like me, suspect it might end up going west of us. If that’s the case, the highs on Tuesday might even be a tad LOW. Would be a good rain track, if it doesn’t jump to the coast at the wrong time.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=RNK&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
Definitely true about the false spring..
We had that in October believe it or not…
we didnt have even very cool nights then..
but we got a springlike blossom of the Bradford
Pears here…Bradfords are a big ornamental tree
here in north Tx…it was a small percentage that bloomed
but sure was enough to notice.
Jared…I am on the outskirts of Roanoke situated just due north of Daleville and just due south of Fincastle. I-81 is only about 10 minutes down the road. Snow has always been one of my very favorite things in life and has always brought me true joy, can’t really explain it….childhood happiness/memories etc. We are always in the notorious “donut” hole or the ice/sleet/snow line. We can get some big un’s here and there, but almost need the perfect set up, which unfortunately doesn’t happen many winters on end. Maybe this one will be a winner!!
I noticed a forsythia bush in someone’s back yard the other day and it had a few blooms on it. Even the daffodils that I planted back in October are starting to peak through the ground. I have been trying to keep them covered with dirt.
I just read comments 19 and 20. This must be “funny comment” night on the blog. Thanks, guys.
Scott, if you don’t mind saying, are you within a mile or so of Ashley Plantation? It sure sounds like it. I am almost a mile due south (steep uphill) from the back entrance to Allstate Insurance Company in SW Roanoke County.
Doug…yes, about 5 minutes from Ashley Plantation and Greenfield Center!
Back on the evening of Friday, November 30th, Rick posted a link to the CPC 8-14 day outlook, which showed our area as being likely to be wetter than normal for December 8-14. In the very next comment, I said I was skeptical, that I would believe it when I either felt it or saw it. Well, for Blacksburg and Roanoke, I was right. Blacksburg has had only 0.11 inches since the 8th, with no more precip forecasted through Friday, and it is a ridiculously low 0.03 for ROA.
However, I must admit that for Bluefield (about 3/4 inch since the 8th) and places like Marion and probably Bristol (and definitely Blackwell Chapel!!), the CPC outlook did verify. The CPC lines were off a bit.
Another cold day in Washington County. Temperatures stayed in the upper 30′s . We are down to 28 right now. I was in Bristol today and saw some ornamental cherry trees with blooms and I have also seen forsythia and quince (japonica) bushes with blooms. It is never uncommon to see some “bloom out of season” when we have these warm days. Even the weather man from Johnson City, TN said we were headed for an unsettled weather pattern with some chances of snow Christmas week. I predict it will either snow, rain, be cloudy, be clear, be cold or unseasonably warm for Christmas. Tune in on 12/26 and I will give you an accurate update. Of course, if the world ends on 12/21 it will not matter either way but I would love to see one more big snow before the Mayan Calendar runs out.
Nope on the Mayan calendar.
http://www.theatlanticwire.com/national/2012/05/safe-new-mayan-calendar-discovered-doesnt-end-2012/52191/
Thanks Kevin. That is a relief to know that the world is not ending. Gives us a few more days to get a big snow.
Matt…its actually the inverse…
Low temperatures are associated with high pressure
areas…Low pressure means moderated temperatures
particularly in the winter.
Just a little Mayan humor,,,
This is the trend leading up to 12/21
I have a feeling if it gets this warm..it
wont rapidly cool back into the 50-s.
http://thirdlensmedia.com/candidconservatives/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/forecast.jpg