Graduating Kathryn from the blog; some rain possible by Sunday
UPDATE: 10 AM, 12/14: Amending the section below about rain chances — new model data suggets the best chance of rain may come Sunday, though not very heavy rain, with an initial push of moisture and a fairly weak storm system. It appears the larger storm system we’ve been discussing will form much farther north, so rain chances in the Monday-Wednesday time frame are looking lower, and snow chances just about nil. Colder air from Canada is expected to arrive late week. END UPDATE
We don’t get a chance to graduate someone from Weather Journal very often, but in a way, that’s what we are doing with Kathryn Prociv. Kathryn filled in on Weather Journal on 9 days in the last 2 months as I took some vacation time. She taught an introductory meteorology class at Virginia Tech this fall, after finishing her master’s degree in geography the previous spring. The semester is ending, and Kathryn is returning to the Washington, D.C., area, where she spent her teenage years, to pursue some new opportunities. One of those opportunities is a part-time gig with the Capital Weather Gang, the Washington Post’s weather blog. Scroll down on this link and the first female face you’ll see is Kathryn’s, with a short biography. Kathryn’s posts on the Post’s blog won’t be on a regular schedule … I’ll make note of some of them from time to time when I know she’s up. Once again, I offer my sincerest appreciation to Kathryn for filling in for me so seamlessly on the Weather Journal blog and also for being steady eyes on the radar and the forecast models when I was keeping my eyes on the road (and the sky right in front of me) in three years of storm chasing. Happy trails, KP! She might be back on here again for a few posts someday, you never know.
The forecast models are starting to come together a little more on next week’s storm, and it’s about what we’ve been talking as a strong possibility — a somewhat inland, late-developing storm system 
that will not be able to pull down enough cold air fast enough for widespread snow in Southwest Virginia. Really, there’ll be sort of a 1-2-3 punch next week — a late Sunday-Monday chance of showers with an initial storm system tracking northwest of us, the potential Tuesday storm system that will likely be rainy, and then a couple days later, a push of Arctic air when the low gets wrapped up tightly north of us. There may be some chance of snow in the higher elevations in West Virginia and far southwest Virginia with Tuesday’s system, and then some upslope snow showers once the Arctic blast kicks in. Otherwise, it’s mainly a question of how much rain we can get to offer some relief to the long-term drought that we’ll be feeling pretty hard if it’s still hanging around by summer. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is suggesting a widespread rainfall of about 0.75 inch may occur by Tuesday evening. This may be tweaked up or down some, but I don’t think this one is going to really dig the deep moisture or be tightly wrapped enough to deliver a 2-inch soaker or anything of that magnitude. I still have some concern that the storm may skip us just a little bit, with heavier rain to the southwest in the Tennessee Valley (as depicted on the map) and perhaps again northeast of us once the coastal low takes shape. We probably get at least a little wet early next week, and likely get pretty cold toward the latter part of the week. The wet and the cold don’t look to overlap too much, though, this time around.
In the meantime, we look to have 4 days with highs in the 50s, maybe a few low 60s on Saturday. There will be some chance of showers Saturday and Sunday as moisture builds ahead of the next storm system, but it appears the best chances of rain will be in the Sunday night to Tuesday period. The weather for Friday night’s Stagg Bowl, the NCAA Division II national championship football game, at Salem Stadium looks unusually placid, with a mostly clear night and temperatures in the 40s — which won’t be all that chilly for teams and fans from Ohio (Mount Union) and Minnesota (St. Thomas). Many local snow fans fondly remember the weather this game brought to our region on Dec. 18-19, 2009.
December 13, 2012 - 8:28 PM
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Dare I say it…KP dominated the Weather Journal! I’m going to miss seeing her around Blacksburg.
Dan: What on earth do you mean by KP “dominated” the Weather Journal?
It’s an inside storm chaser joke, Doug. I get what Dan is saying. So will KP.
Congrats KP! See ya on the CWG! Any chance you could be headed to radio like WTOP or WMAL?
btw…Quags website now updated finally! shwew!
Best of luck, KP! Look forward to continuing to keep up with your postings on Twitter and now from the Capital Weather Gang, since I have so much work up that way.
The Geminid meteor shower is turning out to be pretty spectacular tonight and should only get better as it gets later.
Kathryn – the best of luck in your new venture! Check in every now and again and let us know how things are going for you. We will miss you!
Walked the dogs – it is cool, clear and crisp out there. Already some frost forming in the yard. Just happened to see 2 shooting stars within a minute of each other. Both in the northern sky.
We need moisture of any type! It would be nice to have it snow but I will take rain at this point.
Thank you everyone! While I’m looking forward to new opportunities, I will miss everyone down here in southwestern VA and will be sure to check in from time to time to see how you all are doing! I wish everyone here a safe, happy, and healthy new year to come! Dan and Kevin….DOMINATE!
Because I MUST include some weather talk: as Carol mentioned it’s brisk out there! Just walking from my car into my apartment was enough to give me a good chill. Enjoy the meteor shower tonight!
Yeah, I saw a shooting star, one of the very best of my long life, in the Southeastern sky at about 7:45. It just missed Sugar Loaf Mountain, probably headed for wd’s yard, or Kevin’s … I was coming back down the steep hill on my street, finishing a “tug” with Lame Legs (Blondie).
Will be driving home soon. Hope to see some meteors on the way.
Saw quite a few meteors around 9-10 and I’m sure they are peaking right about now, but it’s just too darn cold to venture out!
The day after Christmas is starting to look mighty interesting for snow lovers.
16 frosty degrees in Woodlawn this morning…coldest morning since last winter! Brrrrrrrr..
A new meteor shower? Some of you folks may have seen some of the new meteors – see the link below
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2012/11dec_newshower/
Kevin, It is best to keep the eyes on the road and not the sky while driving
Tolleris posted overnight on Facebook that the Arctic air finally gets to the east coast on the 21st! Chance for substantial snow around 26th and 27th. By the way its a cool 21 here in Greene this morning! Coldest so far of the season.
NWS not on board with significant rain. Forecasts show no more than 0.25″ over the next seven days in the NRV. As for snow after 12/22, seems like wishcasting, but I am wishing right there with all the other snow lovers.
A cold 21 this morning.Glad its friday!Good luck to you Kathryn!I check out Capital Weather gang everyday.Have a great friday all!
HPC is NWS. They’re still saying 0.50+.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif
Does look like the timing is earlier now on Sunday. Will look into that.
Interesting read on NWS-Blacksburg discussion with regard to changes in the models for this coming week.
MODELS HAVE CHANGED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH RESPECT
TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM AND STILL DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY BEYOND SUN.
Short answer: Earlier, lighter rain on Sunday. Not as cold as fast next week. Cold NW flow pattern developing toward Christmas week.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=RNK&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
It was 21 up here on Doppler Ridge this morning – just like everyone else had. Frosty again as the sun comes up over the ridge.
Looking at the models, it’s the 1-2-3 punch I talk about above stretched over a week.
Punch 1 is light rain, largely a weak overrunning setup, now likely on Sunday.
Punch 2 misses us altogether, it’s the tightening low on the coast not expected to occur til much farther north. Some of the Northeast will get snowed on by that.
Punch 3 is the Arctic air that doesn’t get here til late week.
When the models were showing winter storm/big rainstorm potential a few days ago, all 3 of these punches were rolled up into 1 event.
Euro/GFS are in agreement about cold pattern setting up around next Fri-Sat and continuing through Christmas. We’ll see how that continues to set up.
Not that we [collectively] think Accuweather is that good of a forecaster, I just thought I’d say that they have snow for us on Dec. 24!
32* here at daylight and 20* at Poagues Farm. The coldest I’ve seen this year since last winter.
A crispy morning here in Hokieburg – I had 21 right before daylight. I did go out last night after midnight to watch for the meteors and saw two. It was crystal clear – the tiny stars of Pleiades were easy to pick out. Orion is my favorite constellation, so visible in winter. But it was cold so I did not stay out long! So my snow date for the contest is Dec. 21 and looks like that won’t happen now but it will be cold for VT’s fall commencement.
I’m hoping for the Euro to be correct, with most convection right over us. From the link KM posted above, if I read correctly, we should get somewhere between .50 to .75 of rain out of this Sunday-Monday event. Some is better than none.
Found this video link in the daily Virginia Tech newsfeed.
http://live.huffingtonpost.com/r/segment/weather-satellites/50c21dda02a76029e8000172
You have to watch the commercial first – sorry. It’s a 23-minute piece addressing satellite data drop out. VT meteorology student Dan Goff (WxDan) speaks at time stamp 12:29.
25.3 for a low in Goodview…17.8 a few miles north in Jordantown. You can bet on the rain this weekend as we’re heading to Christmas Town at Busch Gardens Sunday.
Wow Quags seems to be really excited! He says 88% sure its gonna get really cold and 65% sure of a snowstorm around Christmas. He even used the term Big UN! I am guessing that would be at least a foot. Oh well, right now I would just take the grass being covered. LOL
I’ll go 75%-plus on the Arctic outbreak in the days leading up to Christmas. For measurable snow, and I’m talking 1/10 of an inch or more in most of SW Virginia, I’ll stick at 33% for now.
Thanks Cap’t for layin it out and going on record. Great blog and charts/maps even if I don’t understand most of them.
Quagmire’s site:
http://quagmireweathercentral.webs.com/
Click on “Blogs” for his latest update.
Still looking to get this perma-linked on right side here, along with Capital Weather Gang, now that we have an alumna there.
Just looked at the CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks, and sure enough, they agree that most of SW Virginia is likely to be colder than normal on both maps. But the country-wide picture is very strange. Still likely to be warmer than normal in states close to Oklahoma, and normal in the NE. Not exactly looking like a typical Arctic outbreak. Maybe it will be a quick shot and then rapidly returning to normal afterward?
That basically says an Arctic air mass that will come down and become blocked and trapped over the Mid Atlantic/Southeast. It will actually be similarly cold to the north, too, but normals in that region are lower, so what is below normal here would be normal/even above normal to the north.
Still hovering in the 33-40 percent range, so CPC not hardcore sold on it yet. Much more than yesterday.
Also of interest is the 6-10-day temp and precip map, which shows the blue “below-normal” lean and a little nose of green for above-normal precip into West Virginia and Virginia west of I-77.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/index.php
This may underscore what I think has a good chance to happen next weekend — an “upslope-a-thon” in the mountains of West Virginia, the Va-WVa border and west of I-77, down into the NC mountains. Could be the kind that would bleed over into the NRV and a few snow showers into the Roanoke Valley. A little far out to make the call on that, but that’s what appears to be setting up about a week down the line.
This is NWS’ forecast for Friday for ROANOKE:
Friday: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
The 18Z NAM paints a stripe of downright robust rainfall …1-2 inches … right through the heart of our area. Keep in mind though that the 12Z NAM showed less than 0.25 for the same area. Will be interesting to see if this is something that sticks.
http://tinyurl.com/bt5vo8n
HPC sticking around 0.75 inch. NWS local forecast for Roanoke suggests .30-.75 total.
Robin Reed of “7″ predicted a game-time (7 PM) temp of 47 for the Stagg Bowl tonight in Salem. I think he was optimistic. It was probably in the low 40s at 7:00, but my wife and I just drove home from dinner in Salem and it was 39* the entire way. We left the restaurant at 7:30. But very good conditions nevertheless, especially for young men from Minnesota and Ohio. Negative wind, no chance of precip.
Dear 18Z NAM, I have a tune for you: “Beautiful dreamer, wake unto me ….” Oh, only if that outlook would even come close to verifying ….
Roanoke Regional Airport was 46 degrees at 7 p.m., but quickly dropped to 42 by 8 p.m.
Glad to see the website is takings some hits from everyone over here.
Thanks WD & Jared.
I’ve updated the website and added the much anticipated “Ski Page”
I’m going to add alot more to the new ski page over the next few days.
Will add weather updates Saturday. After what happened in CT today, my time with my family tonight was so much more important.
Doug…not to worry about the NAM. Ain’t gonna happen.
G’nite & God Bless
Quags, I enjoyed your write up on the upcoming events. I hope it sets up as you described. An older wise man once said you must believe to receive. The NWS hourly chart predicted 45* @ 8:00 tonight. The family and I were at the Christmas parade tonight in downtown Roanoke…. definitely colder than 45* @ 8:00… felt more like the mid to upper 30′s!
New 0Z NAM looking fairly robust with rain amounts, near 1 inch.
http://tinyurl.com/c8b9w6l
Kinda off topic, but considering today’s events, maybe every parent is off topic. Headed to the back deck to get in the hottub with the 6 and 11 year old girls to look for remnant Geminids while in 100 degree water. May an extremely negative NAO and an extremely positive PNA bless us all! Along with a few other things…
Went to Bluefield this evening to finish the Christmas Shopping and the air had a real chill. Noticed the heater had to be turned down as we got closer to the Chapel and I thought that strange since we tend to be even colder on a still night. Got home and saw the layer of thin clouds and this explained the warmer situation. Skies were still clear in Bluefield.
Everyone give your kids and grandkids extra loving tonight and please pray for the pain in Conn.