Let’s do a little December now that it’s 11 days into it
According to the Southeast Regional Climate Center’s “Climate Perspectives” database, the first 10 days of December 2012, averaging 51.8 degrees, are the 3rd warmest such period in the modern history of Roanoke 
weather data, dating back to 1947 when the current official Roanoke airport site began. (Dec. 1-10 were warmer only in 1998 and 1956.) But a cold front moving through overnight and early Tuesday will bring a temporary end to the mild December weather. We’ll have rather typical December temperatures the next 2-3 days, with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s to low 30s. (Map at left shows projected lows for Thursday morning). A wave of low-pressure forming just off the coast along the front may kick some moisture back inland Wednesday into early Thursday, but it does not appear it will get far enough west to produce a “snow meter”-busting snow — maybe some rain showers for central and eastern Virginia, perhaps mixed with sleet/snow near the western fringe.
A new low-pressure system tracking northwest of us will drag another cold front through this weekend, short-circuiting a brief late-week warmup they may again get us into the 60s for a day or two. It’s uncertain for now 
how much needed rain this would produce in our regoion, dependent on how much Gulf of Mexico moisture it can pull in from our south and Atlantic moisture from the east. Tracking to our northwest, it may again be a limited shower event. I’ll go ahead and link the 0Z GFS version of a possible storm system next week, just to give snow lovers a ray of hope. All the green behind the blue line would be snow, if you take it very literally, which is usually not a good idea on a model run a week out, especially the GFS. The European model, generally more accurate in the long range, has it much farther inland along or just west of the Appalachians, which might be a path for a soaking rain we need for our drought situation. Either way, something to watch about a week out.
December 11, 2012 - 1:22 AM
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Currently 39 as I leave for work.Calling for a high in the upper 40`s up here today!Kevin keep us posted about that possible storm next week.Thanks! Mike
We picked up 0.17″ of rain. That exceeds the cumulative total from the 27 previous days, which was just 0.16″.
DT thinks that run of the GFS is way off the mark. Definitely won’t be getting my hopes up with this one.
Brandon, I think it’s way off the mark too. But I thought I’d throw it out there.
The main point now is that it is always possible there can be short windows when a winter storm is possible even if the overall pattern is not favorable. I think this one will be inland and (hopefully) rain on us next week.
Regarding next week’s storm: The European model this morning is taking a strong low into the Ohio Valley, then re-forming it off the coast, well to our north. That’s starting to make a lot of sense. Floods us with cold air behind it, but no snowstorm. Here’s Day 10:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif
Ben: I just looked at my Ambient Weatherhub server (which runs a program called Meteohub) and it will connect also to CWOP automatically (as well as 25 other weather data collectors!!). So will look into that as well.
Meteohub is the software brains to the server. Info found here:
http://wiki.meteohub.de/Introduction
Note the Ambient Weatherhub is a rebranded product called “SheevaPlug”
wdbrand: the 1090 should work. I have a second console specifically to connect to the Ambient Weatherhub via USB and is mounted up high on the wall to get a good clean signal from the sensor pack. From the server it is then a short ethernet cable direct to the router. My first console is in the kitchen for easy viewing and not near any LAN connections.
This is starting to turn into a new hobby!!
I agree that it’s way off base. Snow almost in Norfolk, Wilmington, all the way to Charleston? How about NO….. How many times in history has that ever happened?
Usually when it snows big in Norfolk, Wilmington and Charleston, we don’t get much this far west.
In this case, it and the Euro are about 1,200 miles off on the track of the low.
I know it is a ways off, but any possibility for snow in the Dec 19th time frame? Some sites are showing rain/snow mix for the area on that day. Of course who knows how accurate that is, but was wondering if any models were picking up on anything that could develop into some snow that day?
This is not winter! Grrr…yesterday’s low in Goodview was 51.2, today 41.4. We also got wet, but not enough to tip the bucket in the “storm” yesterday/last night. We are sitting at .02 for the month. In the last 27 days we’ve received .07 inches of rain. Hopefully next week’s storm will hit just right for our trip to Snowshoe Thursday/Friday.
David: That’s the storm I talk about on the GFS in the blog post above. Most indications it will end up well inland and be more of a rain maker. Wouldn’t be surprised if there was some rain/snow wrapping around it on the backside with upslope enhancement.
Just a note of interest…Accuweather has it MUCH colder in earnest starting around the 20th of this month and lasting all the way until January 4th. I cannot believe they go that far out, but I hope they are correct. It will not be a bitter cold time, but most certainly MUCH colder than our current trend. The highs that entire stretch generally in the upper 30′s to upper 40′s and lows in the low-upper 20′s. NO more temps predicted above 50 after the 19th. Currently we are having the next two days seasonable in the upper 40′s. We then spike back up in the 50′s for a good 5 days or so then HELLO pattern change….I think! They even mention snow for one day, but it is so far out I find it unbelievable.
New GFS (12Z) going bonkers with storm next week. I’ll let snow lovers fantasize about it another run — it is shifting west from last night, starts the low about Memphis and tracks it east, which is kinda odd. Usually a low that strong will get pulled northeast. But here it is on Dec. 19th, with the dark colors west of the blue line where snow would be falling. Enjoy it before it changes.
http://tinyurl.com/c985kpe
The one thing I am seeing that could be interesting with this is some indication of cold air damming from a high to the north. If that develops, even a track west of us could start us off with frozen precipitation before turning to rain. Hopefully wouldn’t be too much ice.
Prospects of a needed soaking rain look decent with the storm next week even if there is no snow. Something intriguing to look at on the weather maps.
Friend of mine in Smyth county (Rich Valley), posted a video close to 9am this morning of it snowing there. Not a huge amount, but some nice snowflakes coming down. He is in the valley between Walker Mountain (RT 16) and Brushy Moutain (continuing RT 16 after passing through RT 42).
I can tell word is spreading fast about what the 12Z GFS is showing, it’s hard to log onto the site right now. The link above may take some time to load.
GFS has the “50-50″ low near Newfoundland (named such because it is near 50 latitude, 50 longitude) that is often present to help steer storm systems favorably for a winter storm in our region. That’s part of why it’s taking next week’s storm on such a southern course. If that feature is really there, the GFS may be on to something, at least partially. If not, forget it, it goes into the Ohio Valley and maybe reforms later off the coast of the Northeast. Maybe we get some good rain out of it if that happens, with breezy mountain snow showers on the back side.
Several models are big on the flood of cold air behind next week’s storm, wherever it tracks. It’s just what we’ve been talking about — punches of Arctic air keep coming down until one is the knockout blow.
I consider a cold surge that will hammer this mild pattern into submission just about inevitable, just a matter of when, not if. Rumors of winter’s demise are greatly exaggerated. It hasn’t even been born yet.
Shanon: Thanks for noting that. Was expecting a few upslope snow showers behind the cold front, but the moisture field was thinning pretty fast, so no prolonged upslope snow squall episode like happens sometimes.
More love from Tx to SWVA..
it was 17f in outlying areas this morning.
upper 20-s here accounting for heat island.
Extra thick socks for the wood splitting
ladies and gents!!
With the 12z GFS going “bonkers”. What do the model huggers see on the 12z Euro?
Come on Bastardi be correct! He is saying East coast storm for 19, if so maybe it will switch things up like 2 years ago! Lets go snowlovers, jump on the Bastardi train! If we believe enough winter will finally show up for the first time in 2 years! YAYYYYY
Haven’t had chance to look at new 12z Euro, but last 2 Euro runs had Ohio Valley storm, with 0z Euro triggering secondary coastal low north of us. Rain, then windy mountain snow showers.
Jared, don’t get yourdelf all worked up. We’re still a week+ out. I don’t want to have to go back over there and talk you off the roof of the Burger King again.
At least its starting to feel slightly more like December this afternoon. Its cooler than it was this morning and it it ure looks more like winter. We have scattered low clouds and combined with the low light from being a 10 days away from the Winter Solstice, it looks flat out grim outside.
Never fear Mr. French, Winter will soon be here. It may show up with next weeks storm or in a few more weeks, but at least things are trending in the right direction.
Wow. 12Z European model has come the direction of the GFS in a big way. Note the position of the low off the Carolina coast, and the blue colors for cold air conveniently over western Virginia.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS192.gif
Still lots of time for things to shift. But it could be very interesting next week.
Kevin
I saw the link on your 4:05 comment. I don’t know the origin of the low but is the 12z Euro depicting a Miller A? (I know it’s 7 days out!)
Here’s the previous frame of the Euro. Low starts near Ark/La/Miss border and heads east-northeast.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS168.gif
Not really a classic Miller A path, but it might qualify technically.
The low already off the coast on this frame is a key feature. It helps spin down some cold air behind it, setting up the second low, and also becomes a steering influence for the second low to keep in south rather than heading more northeast.
Depends what you want. If we get the 12/18 storm, it snows, and then things warm up for Christmas. If the 12/18 storm goes north, it stays cold, and future winter events may occur later.
Should be fun to watch, but I think the 12/18 storm (the one we’re talking about) will end up going north. Long term, if you’re a snow lover, you actually want this one to miss.
Kevin: What is the time frame for this storm if it materializes? Early, mid or late next week? I am a die hard snow lover but late next week would not be ideal for a snow storm as many college students will be on the roads at that time as schools let out for the holidays.
I feel like there has been some sort of wintry threat around December 18th-19th each year since the big ’09 storm. Hope this can pan out!
Leo Lady, we’re talking 18th-19th — next Wed-Thurs. Funny thing, models have been showing an eastern U.S. storm, somewhere between the Mississippi River and off the Atlantic coast, in this time frame for several days.
Ice storm lover brings up something I’ve noticed on the new Euro, and was actually going to comment on as well. Unlike the previous 2 runs with a stronger, Ohio Valley storm that rains a lot on us, it doesn’t wrap down the Arctic air as intensely or as long as duration behind the storm. It’s kinda reminscent of the Feb. 19 storm with a quick hit of cold air, snow, and then a quick warmup — though not to that degree. I don’t know if that is a temporary glitch the Euro will change in later runs or something more systemic with the weather pattern. I’m thinking most snow fans on here would rather take the bird in the hand over the 2 in the bush, if it came to that. Not that any of us have much choice in the matter.
It’s interesting to me that this is the same time frame as the 2009 storm…
Thanks Kevin for the info. Now we all have something to root for or against this week as the models continue to tease us with a flip or a flop. It should be interesting how this plays out.
The thrill of victory or the agony of defeat:)
You know… Farmer’s Almanac actually calls for a big snow the 19th through the 22nd… wouldn’t that be interesting…
Precip….of any type.. bring it on!
Rest up good over the weekend KM. You will be busy by the middle of next week.
… and I’ll be revving up the snow meter next week on a system 3-4 days out that might still be passing anywhere between Louisville and Hatteras.
Live from San Jose, CA!
Headed to Vancouver for the night shortly. Had a few minutes to check in. Yes I saw the Tuesday 12Z Euro. Not thinking its correct but we shall see. I’m going to update my website on Thursday when I get home, sure you will understand. I’m quite sure Professor Kevin will keep you entertained with next week’s potential event on the 18th – 19th.
Be back home soon…
OK, so I’m hyped up now (and I know this won’t be true), but take a look at the DGEX model: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/ If only that could come true, just in time for Christmas!
Will a storm path that brings snow to the Roanoke area be the same path that would also bring snow to the 95 corridor, DC to Fredericksburg?
Not much that u can see outdoors now..
but a feature overhead SWVA that might interest a few..
Winds and weather interacting with sw flow overhead..
very strong jet moving the weather..
On satellite has a wave appearance..little ridges
of clouds running nw-se…in other words choppy flying.
most aircraft will be flying below this this evening..
though probably not perceptible to folks on the ground.
Here is how weather folks describe it..
Basically Pulaski to Florence to Atlanta
SIGMEC TURB 33175A
VALID 12DEC12/0000Z – 12DEC12/0400Z
SEUS
INTST MDT
ALT FL330 – FL370
AREA 55SW PSK – 25W FLO – 65SW ATL – 115NW ATL –
55SW PSK
MVT NNE 30KT
OUTLK NC IN INTENSITY
DISC TRANSVERSE BANDING
WSI/EE
John from Ruckersville, I LOVED your opening sentence in your 3:47 PM comment. About suggesting to our Greene County young man to not get so worked up. But it won’t do any good. For most of the past week or even longer he had given up on the entire winter, now he is yelling “YAYYYY!!” for a few model runs for a possible storm slightly more than a week away. KM and I have suggested … strongly … to take a chill pill …. or 4, but if he has taken them, they sure aren’t working. I admire his enthusiasm, but …..
Today felt quite cold compared to what has been going on recently. Walking back to my car after work, I had the wind in my face and durn! … a wind chill. REALLY felt cold. But if we fast-backward (that’s right …. go BACKWARD in time) to December 2010, today would have felt very balmy.
“Wow, FINALLY a day when the dawn temps were not only above freezing, but above 40 at Melrose Post Office.” Think I am exaggerating? The low temp on 12-1-10 was 31* just before midnight, and the low (and this was at ROANOKE AIRPORT!! A warm spot!!) the next two mornings were 32. From the 4th through the 21st the low at RRA never reached 30*, and on 4 mornings the low was below 20*. The low on 12-14-10 was 10*. The low finally was above freezing on the 22nd, but just barely, 34*. It was the ONLY low temp after DEC. 3rd that was as high as 30. On eight days that month the high never got above 32.
Bluefield, WV was MUCH, MUCH colder in December 2010. Too bad that the NWS doesn’t have a station at Burke’s Garden …. I bet BG was even colder than Bluefield. Kelly Hoge, can you provide any insights about that month?
wd, I am very surprised at you. Are you sure that Kevin will be very busy in the middle of next week? Things can change drastically in that amount of time. Entire system may go somewhere else. Or be a fizzle, which is probably more likely given the very dry conditions for the past 9 weeks here in SW Virginia. I hope that we get a big moisture hit next week, even if some of it might be snow.
NWS has Blacksburg at 45 and Partly Sunny for Tuesday December 18th. Like it or not, they are usually right. Regardless of the models, I will not jump on board until the NWS actually has the word “snow” in their forecast. Right now they are not even entertaining the possibility. The snow “potential” is no more than model fantasy at this point.
Friends in St. Cloud, MN reported 14 inches of snow and sent photos. I’m ready for some.
The weather forecast out of Bristol tonight mentioned a possibility that we would have rain next Tuesday possibly changing to snow Tues Night and Wednesday. Computer models are early and they also say a lot can change. If it ends up being a cold air damming situation, we will be on the line between frozen and wet precip as far SW VA often is. I remember one cold air damming storm where Wytheville got 16 inches of snow, Marion got 4 inches of sleet and Washington County got 1″ of freezing rain. I would rather see 16″ of snow than 1″ of freezing rain.
Would love to see snow next week but as someone said, we need precip one way or another. Temps in Washington Co stayed around 37 all day and cloudy. Down to 30 tonight and the fire feels good.
Oh lord. A week away folks. Some interesting things to pick up:
1) Both models show some degree of Blocking
2) Both models have significant energy in the time period diving down from Canada.
Time to watch.
Yes indeed, Dec 18-19 every year after the big ‘un in 2009 has provided a chance for snow. On Dcember 18th 2010, I remember that there was a big storm but I believe it went off the coast. It had a chance a few days out though. And there was something last year despite how warm and ugly last winter was.
Boy oh boy, I really did not like last winter. It just was weird and…well, in my opinion, worse than what February 2011 was like with the “blast furnace” that Doug mentions.
I just clicked on the link on the right side of this page to Dave Tolleris’ wxrisk.com page. I clicked on Part 1 of his discussion of Sunday, Dec. 9th. Given his track record of being able to predict stuff at least a week ahead of time very well, it was illuminating. And also very entertaining, to my surprise. He continually spoke of how the set-ups right now (actually “then”) were “very, very bad for an East Coast snowstorm.” “Big, big low off the NW coast bringing in howling, howling, howling winds into the NW U.S., causing a trough out west. Which is very bad, very bad, for East Coast snow.”
{These may not be verbatim, but they are pretty close} And he also explained how the big block of warm air is NOT over Greenland or even nearby, but over Scandinavia. Not good for eastern US snow. Showed a graphic that showed the PNA nosediving to -2 and -3 over the next week plus, while the NAO stays barely negative, and gets close to neutral.
He also claimed that there is “no way” that the December 18th-19th event will be a snowy one for Virginia. Claimed that the storm center will stay west of us, bringing us rain. We will see how things play out. KM has mentioned some of these same things, too, I think.
Nick, i just read your comment. Are you sure that I said that FEB 2011 was a blast furnace? It was colder than normal for most of the first 10 or 11 days, THEN things warmed up and winter was pretty much over. Did you perhaps mean another month or year?
The comments by Blacksburg Mike and Michael Hoback are interesting in that it shows that adjacent National Weather Service offices in Blacksburg and Morristown, Tenn. (where the forecast for the Bristol area comes from) are already handling next week’s situation differently.
Anyone issuing a deterministic forecast 8 days out that projects the best guess at what WILL happen, as the weather service does, would be absolutely foolish to mention more than low chances of rain and snow at this point. There are still more ways it can not happen as depicted than it can happen. We just had a major model shift a low-pressure position 800+ miles from run to run.
But Superstorm Sandy was once a model fantasy too. I was probably the biggest skeptic of that one 8 days out. And it ended up just about exactly like the Euro showed.
Let’s see if these solutions hang on for several runs, or change quickly.
It certainly sounds like DT thinks that one of the key things that must change in order for cold weather to invade the East Coast is for the big low off the coast of British Columbia and south of Alaska to get the H out of Dodge. One of the other maps he showed was one of the polar vortex situation about a week from now. I just mentioned to Kevin privately last night that there was a polar vortex just a bit too far north of Hudson’s Bay to be in the right position, but it was in the right neighborhood. Well, on the map DT shows for next week, the only polar vortex on the North American side of the North Pole will be in NW Canada, not in eastern Canada. DT moaned about that, too.
Anyway, I was really impressed with the whole 10-minute presentation by DT
I’m still leaning to storm going inland and being more rainy than snowy here (which, in itself, would be good news for the drought), but am much more willing to consider the winter storm potential than I was last night because the Euro is on board, at least for now. And I can see some features on the map that make it plausible.
I recently saw some data presented by the local weather service that showed the European model not only outperformed the GFS but outperformed human meterologists at the HPC and NWS on some parameters. Its steadfast performance during Sandy has earned the Euro a new widespread level of respect that even transcends the weather community. No model is perfect, but it has to be considered on a little bit higher level right now.
The question with next week’s system: Does it merely follow what we expect with the prevailing weather pattern (PNA-, east-based weak NAO-) or does it find a short window favorable for something a little different — like our Feb. 19, 2012, and March 1, 2009, winter storms. DT is correctly pointing out the big picture reasons why this may not happen as currently depicted. But are there events lining up 1-2 days next week that could produce a different outcome than what we might expect otherwise? We’ll see.
Excellent points, Kevin. I was just presenting (as best as I could remember) what DT was saying, and he said it on Sunday. And he is prone to speak in absolutes often.
Kevin hit what I wanted to say spot on with his small window comment. DT is ALL about the overall pattern. But with just like a computer model, NO pattern is completely perfect. The pattern next week does not look favorable over a long period of time for a winter storm. BUT – - there could be a window where a storm could sneak in. Right now, the window is OPEN — but only for a day or two. A low will pass about 300 miles too far South and east tomorrow.. but if it were here it would be snow. Hope this is making sense. This to me is why DT does so well with BIG storms, because they are a product of the pattern. Sometimes, you get a storm that doesn’t really fit a pattern, just kinda finds its way.
Looking at the 0Z GFS, the Tue/Wed event is all rain in SW Va. Am I interpreting it correctly?
Yes you are correct, Alfred. 0Z GFS doesn’t bring the cold air fast enough and develops the storm system late when it’s farther north. Low near Newfoundland we were talking about directing the storm on the more southerly, colder path in previous runs is missing.
Sadly for the drought situation, we even miss a lot of the rain on 0Z GFS. But it’s just another run of many yet to come. Look at this rain hole next Tuesday evening, with the cold air behind the blue line hanging west.
http://tinyurl.com/ce3kxft
I plan no new update on the blog this evening, as nothing much has really changed short-term or long-term.
Yes, Doug, you are correct about Feb 2011. Sorry, I was a bit off on my info there.
Yes, Doug, you are correct about Feb 2011. Sorry, I was a bit off on my info there. Very good point Kevin!
Maybe I’m being a pessimist, but I see no reason to think we’re suddenly going to start seeing moisture laden systems drop substantial precipitation on us.
30* at midnight . Now up to 34*
6:15 AM: 34 cloudy dog degrees. Negative wind again.
I see more models are jumping on the coastal track! Whats everyones Idea now?
Just looked at Accuweather’s extended forecast for Meadowview, Va. It shows temps dropping to the 30′s by 12/20 and staying there through 01/05 with only 3-4 days around the low 40′s. We will see.
For those who are snow lovers: if you are on twitter and follow Kevin, he retweeted the pic I sent him from yesterday of snow down close to Lebanon, VA. Road is wet, but a good dusting on both sides of the road.
0Z Euro hauls out a “Miller B” looking storm with an initial low moving west of the Appalachians and then reforming off the Carolinas. Cold-air damming is rather weak ahead of the initial low. Historically, SW Virginia only gets a lot of wintry precip when there is a ton of Gulf moisture hurled over stronger cold air damming, and then it’s often a mixed bag. Early December storms in both 2002 and 2003 were of this nature — snow changing to sleet and ice. In this case, thought, probably would be mostly rain for SW Virginia, maybe snow at higher elevations, taken very literally. Better chances for snow with the coastal low farther north (Yes, you, Jared, but moreso even farther north).
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS168.gif
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS192.gif
GFS is developing the low along the coast farther north than previous runs, doesnt’ even rain much in SW Va.
All still early runs, subject to more change. Makes a little more sense to me than taking a strong low from Vicksburg or Memphis out to Myrtle Beach.
Yep, just the mention of snow and the posts skyrocket, so KM will be busy either way.
Cherry trees on campus in Blacksburg are blooming. 4-5 months early.
12z GFS has some beneficial rain for us, but no snow as the low tracks overhead.
http://i46.tinypic.com/2rp3bcn.gif