Comments on: Moisture streaming in for Sunday-Monday showers

By: Doug Griggs, SW Roanoke County (1420 elev)

Doug Griggs, SW Roanoke County (1420 elev) — Sun, 16 Dec 2012 03:18:10 +0000

I am glad that you recognize that the GFS model you linked (Thanks, by the way) is a full 10+ days away, Ben. It might verify, but at this point the odds are against it. Meanwhile, for an event that should be over by 72 hours by now, GFS and NAM cannot even come close to agreeing on general rainfall amounts for SW Virginia. Mr. Skeptical is siding with the GFS ….. but desperately hoping that the NAM is at least closer to the overall actuals.

By: Ben G.

Ben G. — Sat, 15 Dec 2012 23:24:06 +0000

If only this wasn’t in fantasy land. 18z GFS is teasing the snow fans.
http://i50.tinypic.com/2artz6.gif

By: Doug Griggs, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft

Doug Griggs, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft — Sat, 15 Dec 2012 22:02:44 +0000

Well, the Breaking News story has changed twice (at least) since my 4:55 comment. To read the short article, simply click on “News” above. It is the 4:48 PM story.

By: Kevin Myatt

Kevin Myatt — Sat, 15 Dec 2012 22:00:45 +0000

Still huge NAM vs. GFS fight over rain totals. NAM consistent in streaking 1+ inch rain right up through our region. GFS consistent in putting a <.50 rain shadow in same area.

12Z GFS, 84-hour rainfall: http://tinyurl.com/d82ox8c
12Z NAM, 84-hour rainfall: http://tinyurl.com/cz28anq

18Z runs following suit.

By: Doug Griggs, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft

Doug Griggs, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft — Sat, 15 Dec 2012 21:55:31 +0000

NON-WEATHER comment. See the Breaking News window at the top of this page, just to the left of the calendar? It is about the shooting of a convenience store clerk on Salem Tpke NW this morning. I know that guy. Awfully nice fellow. I am glad that I am not at work today (this is my long weekend).

By: Kevin Myatt

Kevin Myatt — Sat, 15 Dec 2012 21:47:07 +0000

Brrrrrr. 12Z Euro shows -12 to -14 C at 850 millibars (about a mile up) for Christmas Eve. That’s 6 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS216.gif

Certainly some teens would be likely at the surface if this verifies, and maybe colder if there is a clear, calm radiational cooling night. On the flip side, windy days would keep this air mixed good near the surface, so some days with highs upper teens or 20s would be possible.

You can also see the cluster of “L’s” in the southern Rockies that Quagmire refers to, perhaps waiting to come across and interact with that cold air a couple of days later. Maybe.

By: Doug Griggs, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft

Doug Griggs, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft — Sat, 15 Dec 2012 21:46:07 +0000

Congratulations, Jared, you have just established a new Weather Blog record. 5 sentences, with 4 of them ending in exclamation points. I guess your chill pills have been gathering dust for the past few days ….

By: wdbrand

wdbrand — Sat, 15 Dec 2012 20:53:34 +0000

Just posted on your site on sking, altho by the hardest.

By: Clarkdocvet

Clarkdocvet — Sat, 15 Dec 2012 20:28:07 +0000

Nice ski page Quags,see my comment there…

By: Captain Glen Quagmire

Captain Glen Quagmire — Sat, 15 Dec 2012 20:11:17 +0000

Saturday 12Z Euro says its going to get cold after the 20th with a huge potential major storm/Lake Effect event for the 21st – 22nd. Upper Midwest to New England look out! Cold hangs around thru Xmas and beyond. the “BIG UN” energy still there over the 4 Corners/Southern Rockies on Xmas day.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html

Sort of knocks my 65% down just a bit to 60%…lol!