UPDATE 1:30 PM: Wintry mix tapering off in SW Virginia
Pictured at left, and big version linked here, silvery ice-covered trees against newly cleared blue skies in south Roanoke County.
UPDATE 1:30 PM: Winter weather advisories are canceled south of the Interstate 64 corridor, including the Roanoke and New River valleys. They continue for Alleghany, Rockbridge and Bath counties northward. Click here for latest advisories from the National Weather Service in Blacksburg. END UPDATE
UPDATE 12:20 PM: The sharply defined back edge of the precipitation shield is pushing through Roanoke, having cleared the New River Valley. Sunshine is even being reported behind the edge of the precipitation. This will end the bulk of wintry weather today, and should allow for improvement on area roads during the afternoon. END UPDATE
UPDATE 11 AM: There are several reports of rain/freezing rain/sleet changing to snow on the backside of the precipitation shield in the I-77 corridor and the western New River Valley. This may advance eastward through the New River and Roanoke valleys over the next few hours, adding to a winter weather event that is already exceeding most expectations. Slushy, icy roads are possible anywhere in Southwest Virginia today. END UPDATE
UPDATE 3:30 AM: Winter weather advisory replaces freezing rain advisory for most of Roanoke/New River valleys, taking into account snow/sleet mix that has been occurring, with freezing rain advisory expanded southward to North Carolina state line. Click here for latest advisories from National Weather Service-Blacksburg. END UPDATE
UPDATE 2:35 AM, 12/26: Snow and sleet are being reported in parts of the Roanoke and New River valleys, as temperatures have cooled just enough above the surface, and are above freezing for a thin enough layer at the surface, to allow some snow to reach the surface. At this time, thin slushy accumulation on grass and exposed objects is all that is expected — but we’ll see just how long it can last. END UPDATE
Blizzard warnings as far south as Arkansas and a tornado outbreak near the Gulf Coast — our region will be affected by an intense December winter storm, though not in either of those ways.
The image from the European model a few days ago that showed cold air trapped over western Virginia with a strong low-pressure system approaching from the southwest spreading moisture into it looks like it will prove not to be so far off, after all. Colder, relatively drier air is 
funneling southward along the eastern slopes of the Appalachians tonight as moisture from the extremely dynamic low over the south-central U.S. begins to stream in. The result will be temperatures dropping to near freezing as precipitation develops, leading to a confusing mosaic of precipitation types on Wednesday morning across western Virginia. Winter storm warnings are out for the I-64 corridor (Rockbridge, Alleghany counties) and northward, where a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain could produce an inch or two of crunchy muck — with maybe as much as 4 inches in some spots that can say snow longest. Farther south, through the Roanoke Valley, as far south as Floyd, Pulaski and Montgomery counties, there are freezing rain advisories for patchy ice developing. With temperatures flirting right at the freezing mark, who gets ice and who doesn’t may vary over just a few miles or a few hundred feet of elevation — and how that evolves could even vary from place to place, with higher elevations more easily reaching freezing generally, but deeper rural valleys often trapping colder air in for longer. We’ve had a mild December and even some low 50s on this Christmas Day, so road surfaces are not likely to support solid ice on streets and sidewalks, but there could be patchy ice in more shaded spots, on bridges and overpasses, etc. Trees and exposed objects will develop ice much more easily, where it is 32 or lower with rain. Some sleet is likely in the Roanoke and New River valleys, and a few wet snowflakes aren’t out of the question either — if either sleet or snow gets heavy enough for several minutes, we could see some white grass at least in spots. As the day goes along, slightly milder temperatures will likely change things over to mostly rain, at least south of I-64 — but cold air sometimes stubbornly remains in protected rural valleys, so ice may linger longer in some areas. There can always be surprises just about anywhere in this kind of borderline winter weather situation, so we’ll just have to monitor how it develops on Wednesday morning.
Rainfall amounts of near to somewhat over an inch are still projected. As the low goes by, cold northwest winds late Wednesday into Thursday will start another round of upslope snow showers.
New storm systems are expected to arrive Saturday and again about the middle of next week, which will be the start of the new year. The system on Saturday, once again, looks to be just cold enough, and likely to take a track far enough inland, for another murky snow/ice/rain setup, while the one near the middle of next week is just too far out to say much about. I will venture this much: The chance of frozen precipitation in western Virginia seems to be increasing with each subsequent system.
December 25, 2012 - 7:35 PM
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A good day with family and friends. Now to wait on the impending storm. Have watched the radar off and on today and it looks like the first bands of rain are arriving soon. Have the generator ready; candles handy; batteries for the lantern; and plenty of leftovers in the refrigerator. Not real excited about this precip turning to freezing rain or ice. Temps went up from 38 at supper to now 39. I guess it is drawing in the warm air from down south.
Kevin, I get really antsy when I read you mentioning “Floyd” or I read “above 2500 feet”. Those words send up red flags to me. Hope it is just lots of rain or snow – nothing in between.
NEWx etc. 1. Who on earth ARE you? At least “Quags” provides a pseudonym.
2. In what city or area are you based? I am just curious, but I am sure that I speak for other veteran bloggers here who have never heard of you until very recently, and are also curious. We are a generally friendly group, but you are coming across as pretty cool and a bit unfriendly. That doesn’t mean that you don’t know an awful lot about weather.
3. I agree that the addition of a southern jet is very promising for at least getting more precip here, that all is needed then would be colder air for snow. But if all three oscillations go to levels like they did last winter (which I already mentioned was doubtful), I don’t see how that could still provide a promising set-up for snowstorms for the remainder of winter ….
NEWxSFC mentioned the first week of January for the overall potential wintry setup (PNA+, split flow, subtropical jet, strong low near Newfoundland) in the East, which is strongly supported on long-range models. Doug mentioned after Jan. 6 with potential index changes in the NAO/PNA/AO, as noted on the CPC charts. Seems you’re talking past each other on the calendar a bit, because it could be very wintry the first week and change after Jan. 6, in theory. Though I think the state of those oscillations is pretty blurry that far out, as Doug notes, and will make this a moot issue.
Another weather update from McKinney,Texas. FIVE INCHES of snow fell within 3 hours. Crazy storm.
Looks like the system on Saturday 12/29 may end up being a Southern Slider, with snow, yes, but not much of it (except for maybe the NW NC Mtns). Looks like areas north of route 460 may not see much of anything on Saturday. Also, I am very skeptical about any frozen precip on Weds. 12/26, with current dew points in the 40′s, don’t see how the temp will fall to freezing.
Merry Christmas!! I completely agree- this is typically a very friendly read. I have only commented once, however, I check the blog several times a day. The posts I have read recently have been a bit awkward. The regulars are typically very respectful of each other
@Griggsy, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft — December 25, 2012 @ 9:01 pm
2.NEWx etc.1. Who on earth ARE you? At least “Quags” provides a pseudonym.
2. In what city or area are you based? I am just curious, but I am sure that I speak for other veteran bloggers here who have never heard of you until very recently, and are also curious. We are a generally friendly group, but you are coming across as pretty cool and a bit unfriendly.
3. …if all three oscillations go to levels like they did last winter (which I already mentioned was doubtful), I don’t see how that could still provide a promising set-up for snowstorms for the remainder of winter.
—
1) Meteorologist
+20 years experience
Pseudonym is NEWxSFC
2) Don’t see how location (city or area) is relevant.
The ‘Weather Journal’ blog appears to be a place where wx enthusiasts of all stripes can post analysis and opinions about local and regional weather consitions and events.
No idea why anyone would consider my contributions ‘unfriendly’ unless it’s frowned upon in this forum to offer contrary opinions and independent analysis. What does seem unfriendly is being called out for merely contributing to the discussion.
3) Having considered your analysis and conclusions…please consider mine.
Indices are just that…indices; yet…indices don’t begin to tell the whole story. If anyone thinks that’s _not_ the case…then the forest will be missed for the trees every time.
Fer’instance; when the PAC NW ridge axis set up a tad too far east or west from the longitude where the index is calculated…the index doesn’t reflect the true amplitude of the ridge or its impact on downstream wx.
It’s also useful to evaluate any teleconnection index 1) at different synoptic times (00z…06z…12z…18z) b/c sometimes the ‘official’ value is at odds with the other run-times and 2) its ‘correlation coefficient’ (CORR) b/c it tells you a lot about the model’s skill. A CORR value of 0.60 means the model explains the index’s variability only 36% (0.6 ^ 2 = 0.36 = 36%) of the time.
The point being made is teleconnection indexes are just indexes and many of them are not as important to ‘bonus’ winter wx as the CW leads many to believe.
Fer’instance; in the run-up to Superstorm / Storm of the Century in ’93…the AO was ‘+’ and increasing…NAO was barely underwater and increasing…PNA was negative and decreasing. A forecast based on AO / NAO / PNA would have been ‘non-event.’
FOTMI…negative NAO is not a prerequisite for good snows in VA…nor is -AO…or +PNA…nor are they a promise of good snows either. See for yourself by exploring the history of NESIS events.
Cold and sprinkling rain in Mendota with a bit of wind. Wood boiler is chugging along and we are snug.
Doug…how is the doggy?
Merry Christmas, and thanks, Kevin. My 92-year-old father and his three semi-domesticated feral cats live in NW Blacksburg. I follow the weather to know where to put the animals – outside, in the garage, on the deck, inside, etc. Thanks again.
Doug, thanks for your advice re: Saturday travel from Georgia. I hate to come back a day early, but I am thinking that is the best thing to do if winter weather for Saturday still looks like a good possibility on Thursday… if I wait til Saturday then I’ll be getting into VA probably in the early afternoon hours and it always seems to me that the worst area for snow issues in the past (as recently as last Saturday, actually) on 81 is around Marion/Wytheville, which I’ll be passing right through.
Pretty great chance at an overunning event first week of January. Way too early to nail any sort of specifics but the split flow/50/50 low will allow for some cold air to meet up with some warm air somewhere over the Southern half of the US during the first week of the month. Throw in some pacific energy and presto!
This weekends storm – - will be tricky. QPF is the question.
Woke up and turned on floodlight at 2 a.m. here just south of Roanoke — sleet/wet snow mix.
Blacksburg Mike: Cooler, drier air is not primiarily right at surface, but a few thousand feet up. It has done the trick, at least temporarily, here at my location.
NEWxSFC: Glad you’re here, appreciate your further description of who you are. We have discussed in the past how the various indicies/oscillations tilt the odds certain ways but events can and do happen “against the grain” so to speak sometimes, and how the location of certain features with those oscillations (east-based NAO-, for instance) can affect things.
I have a rain/sleet mix at my location in Downtown Roanoke.
Now ALL SNOW in Downtown Roanoke.
That didn’t last long. We’re basically getting a complete mixed bag right now. It’s more snow/rain than sleet though.
We’ve got a pretty fast snow coming down here, at a rate of at least half an inch per hour. Merry Christmas fellow snow lovers.
Snowing in Glenvar at a good rate. I guess it’s off to work. The road out front is covered.
Some on grass and deck where I live. Gone back over to mostly sleet/rain for now.
Roanoke Regional Airport officially reporting light snow and 34 degrees at 3 a.m.
Pretty much all sleet at my location now (1400 feet, south of Roanoke). Still collecting on grass, deck, etc.
Getting off here again. Will check back in morning.
National Weather Service has replaced the Freezing Rain Advisory with a Winter Weather Advisory. Expecting up to an inch of snow/sleet/freezing rain.
One last note: Freezing rain advisory just switched to winter weather advisory for mixed precipitation in Roanoke/New River valleys. Freezing rain advisory adjusted southward all the way to N.C. state line.
Blacksburg, near the municipal golf course: I just stepped out on the back patio – my feet nearly flew out from under me! There’s a very thin layer of icy slush lay on the bricks. The grass is white but the bricks just look wet.
Been snowing at a good rate in Troutville for at least an hour now. Rt 11 at least just north of town is turning white. Maybe ¾” of snow in the driveway already.
Eva, The vet has Blondie again. One of the assistants was very kind, gave us a phone call yesterday evening to let us know that Blondie is a bit better, eating and keeping his meds down. A big relief. Thanks for asking, I hope that you and yours had a wonderful Christmas.
Temp has dropped a lot since 10:30 last night, as predicted. It was 39.5 then, 35 at 2 AM, 33 now. And raining. Soon to change over to whatever.
Oops. I was both right and wrong a few minutes ago. Just went out to get the newspaper, and it is raining, but the changeover has already happened. I have a coating of soft snow on the grass and mailbox …. I wonder if it will change again to freezing rain or sleet. Road surface seemed OK, just wet, but I wonder if it is a bit icy 150 feet below me, on Sugar Loaf Mntn Road close to our side street ….
Light Snow started falling at 5:30.Ground is getting covered and temp is right at 32.Will update before i leave for work at 7:00.Have a great day all.
Snow has changed to all sleet and temp is 31.Ground is covered,That was a quick changeover,warmer air must be moving in up above.
Doug: That coating is probably from what fell around 2-3 a.m., which was snow/sleet for a time in Roanoke.
We appear to be in the rain/freezing rain/some sleet stage in Roanoke area now.
The unmistakable rattle of sleet now against my windows and deck.
Your snowmeter would have put you in the penalty box if you measured here.
Ground is covered sleeting and 33 degrees at this time. Mr Griggs I am glad BlondieBoy is doing some better. Leo Lady sorry about your dog and yes it is very quiet here as well. Hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas
Heavy, wet snow falling at 6 a.m. in Rockbridge County. Did not stick to pavement. At 7 a.m. we have a pause in precipitation.
DC. probably got some of this too. Showing 30* at Terrys Fork.
34 degrees in Galax,just pure,steady rain here. Don’t think it got below 32 the whole night,so no sleet or snow seen here…
All freezing rain temp now 31 degrees. Ground now has soupy look to it
Got a dusting here on west side of blacksburg with some noticeable sleet/ice pellets on top of that on the deck, mostly rain in the past hour.
Any thoughts on heading to charlottesville from blacksburg today? Thinking about taking the Troutville-Lynchburg-Rt 29 route instead of 81-64.
I was not awake when snow was falling in Hokieburg. It’s somewhat white-ish outside and looks crunchy. Wintry snack mix. I don’t see any precip coming down just now. Temp is 36 on the cold side of my house. Wind kicking up. Those after-Christmas sales may not be worth it in this weather.
Greetings from Ice Encased Dopplerville. It is 30 with a Winter Potpourri of Weather up here. I heard all of the weather during the night but was too tired to get up and see what was happening and what time it was. Quite a surprise this morning before dawn to see white with ice on top. Everything has a coating of ice. No wind but I am thinking it if does pick up there will be a few trees or limbs down. Ooops – here is the wind and with it rain. Welcome to Winter!
NEWxSFC – the regular bloggers are just curious and since some of us are mostly observers for our areas, we also include the general area of where we live and around here, our elevations too because that can impact what is happening in our area compared to an adjoining country 1000′ feet lower or higher. You won’t hear any scientific stuff from me…you will about being a Hokie, observations, color commentary, and since I travel and do things like camping, backpacking, archaeology (i.e. cabin trip in Shennies starting Jan. 5) I’m interested in how the weather may impact that. I have learned a great deal from Kevin and the other more scientically-oriented bloggers.
Jumped on here to see if anyone else was having wind issues. I’m in Rocky Gap (Bland County just across the border from Bluefield-3 miles east of I77) and the wind has been HOWLING here since the wee hours. Howling as in very strong sustained winds and much higher gusts. We’re used to a stiff winter breeze up here but this is ferocious. Also a lot of rain, LOL, which is quite the switch from us usually getting snow and Roanoke/Blacksburg getting nothing.
DT says a decent snow of 4-8 inches possible for SWVA on Saturday. He bases this off the new midel runs overnight! Not to far off for this to go bad for us, but probably will. LOL
Hey Kevin,
Any idea what the temperature will be heading from Roanoke to Greensboro this afternoon? I’m taking family to the air port and am worried about slick roads.
Thanks for all you do!!!
Renee: There are wind advisories and high wind warnings for some of the counties along/west of I-77. In a situation where the low is tracking to our west and winds turn to the southeast, that area often gets strong winds because of some of the same effect that makes northwest winds stronger up here, winds hitting the mountains and breaking into “waves” that crash into lower elevations.
Jamie: It’s 40 in Greensboro now, and should be getting warmer later today.
Not far to the east, there is a severe thunderstorm risk:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Same here in Giles…phenomenal winds! Keep peeking out to see if trees are down. Weve had a few power surges too…
Heavy sleet at my location right now, south of Roanoke.
As HokieTrax was saying, location makes a big difference. I woke up to a solid white covering of sleet, very pretty for the christmas tree farm behind me. But I get to work and co-workers that live no more than 20 minutes away did not see any sleet. I am downtown now, mostly rain but still some sleet pellets hitting the window.
WD: Yep, my snow meter is at the mercy of Robin Reed’s snow ruler and another one at the weather service office — not up on anybody’s mountain.
That said, it is cumulative for the week, so even a fraction of an inch of sleet/snow accumulation (which count together by official standards) officially reported today will make it easier for even puny amounts with upslope snow showers at Blacksburg, Friday/s system, etc. to add up to bust the 1-inch mark.
I think folks who were up at 2-3 a.m. would have seen some snow and sleet just about anywhere. Brandon R is downtown and he saw it snowing and sleeting. But it didn’t last as long and didn’t stick as much.
Let it sleet, let it sleet, let it sleet – no WAIT. Wrong word for that lovely song. Nice steady mix of rain and sleet with a little bit of sleet accumulation on the ground, over here by the Coffee Pot. The barometric pressure meter in my head is about to explode. The rain looks ‘thick’ on the windows, but does not appear to be freezing, and the crows are out flying. (FYI for the new person – hello and do not expect anything technical from me either. I adore all the weather geekery that goes on here and at times hang on certain folks words when those words involve snow. I tend to use my joints, head, cloud and bird sign for my own personal weather forecast. I know, very 19th century.)
Just a quick update from Dopplerville – still 30, lots of wind and lots of rain. Lights have been flickering so not sure how much longer we will have power. Shutting down the computer next. Everyone stay dry and warm out there. I will check back in when I can. At least a 1/4 inch of rain already.
I swear I just heard Thunder…. quite possible it was something else, but it was long and drawn out and in the distance. Sleet is still coming down pretty hard here just off UVA Campus.
4 miles wsw of fincastle – 32 winds from east wintery mixture falling – about 1/2″ white mixture on ground (1300′)
doug, hope Blondie responds, had two long lived goldens, losing them or any pet not easy. Now have barn cat that has deceided the stove in the house is much better
In Covington, we have about 1.5 inches of slushy mess on the roads. The winds are whipping.
DT says 4″-8″ on Saturday, well then it must be so! LOL. By the way, heavy sleet here in Blacksburg and 33. Temp has actually been dropping, NOT rising all morning.
Heavy rain mixed with occasional sleet pellets here in Galax…Glad I don’t work on horses or cows anymore,as my associates headed out this am for some emergency farm calls! Do I remember the days…still 36* here.
We’ve had a pretty solid hour of sleet and snow and the ground is getting steadily whiter in Rural Retreat (2600′).
Snow is nice to look at ..for a little
while..but hardly at all trapped on an MD-80
or a Boeing of sorts.
Its not an equal purveyer and sower of joy.
..My Christmas was a little lacking…but I only
had to deal with a little mixed salt and pepper
in my hair in the parking lot at 1 pm…and a block
of ice passing for a car at 10pm..and a few (many) wildly frustrated
pilots. Ho Ho Ho ..indeed.
http://www.star-telegram.com/2012/12/26/4507886/flight-cancellations-strand-hundreds.html
Was on 419 near Tanglewood when a downpouring of sleet occurred around 9:30. Most of the roads were completely covered. It was a slow go to work out here on Plantation. Travelled the parkway between rte 24 and 220 this morning and there were several patches of white on the ground.
It was around 34 in Goodview at 8:30 but now down to 32.5 with .74 inches of rain so far. Last I heard there was some sleet mixing in as well.
You may indeed be hearing thunder, Scott. There is a lot of lift with this storm, and some instability aloft. Anytime you get sleet that means there is a warmer layer somewhere above the surface layer, and therefore there is colder air above that for that warmer air to rise into. I’ve seen a lot more thundersleet than thundersnow in my life.
@Kevin Myatt — December 26, 2012 @ 2:06 am 12.
NEWxSFC: Glad you’re here, appreciate your further description of who you are.
—
Thx for the warm welcome. Probably should decode the NEWxSFC pseudonym for your readers. NEWxSFC is short NorthEast Weather Snowfall Forecast Contest.
The NEWx snowfall forecasting contest has been on-going for 14 years. The contest started in USENET’s ne.Weather newsgroup in 1999 as a way to see how well the poster’s snowfall forecasts for east coast storms panned out.
The contest is open to all.
Heck…Kevin entered the ‘season-total’ snowfall contest in ’09 / ’10 where he placed 6th in a field of 20.
No fees or other annoyances.
Just a fun game among like-minded winter weather enthusiasts.
It,’s amazing what the urban heat island can do. NWS reporting 34 in Blacksburg. I’m in Ellett Valley at 1900′ (lower than B’burg) and its been holding steady at 31 all morning with the wind howling and pouring rain and sleet sideways. Had to push the dog out the door this morning and he was back inside in record time
Started pouring snow here in Galax,now groung is white! But here comes the dreaded “dry slot” on the radar,looks like within the next hour or so!! Oh well,was pretty for awhile. Ya’ll enjoy several more hours of precip as ours will be ending soon…
It is not nice here in Hokieburg. Winds are very strong now and just a few minutes ago the tall white pine (maybe 40 feet tall?) on the edge of the forest near my yard, broke in half and I was there to watch that happen. All precip is frozen – mostly sleet. This particular tree was damaged in the Ice Storm of 1994 – the top lopped off but it managed to grow and look mostly normal over the years. It’s where my birdfeeder hangs (still intact) so I will have to move that. The south (warm) side of the house thermometer reads 32. North side is 30.
That was a good year to pick big numbers in the contest, NEWxSFC.
The only reason I haven’t entered since is general life busyness (son born in 2010, moving widowed mother from Ark to Va., wokr) and letting the deadline lapse. Maybe I’ll pitch in during one of the single-storm contests.
Agree with Kevin..
Mesoscale depicted on current radar
just east of FCX radar site..
from Fayetteville NC to Farmville
much streaming high topped moisture plume.
One top Raleigh area measured to 65000ft.
Drops off rapidly around Lynchburg but tops
there above 20000ft..sleet and thunder wouldnt
be unexpected at all. These cells are moving incredibly fast.
Btwn PSK and Lewisburg 84 knots…FCX cell 87 knots…all to the NNE.
The jetstream makes an abrupt west to east turn over the central Carolinas to due north. This weather is being zipped along by the jetstream.
And, btw, much to your annoyance NEWxSFC … NWS-Blacksburg referred to this as a “CAD event” in a discussion yesterday.
I left the line in above about “surprises” partly because the NAM was significantly colder on a couple of its runs last night. The NAM hasn’t seemed to be clicking for us on a lot of recent events, but was on to something with that. Euro days ago was a lot closer with cold air wedge than several runs since.
Snowing in Pulaski for about 20 min. Around 1/4 inch at 10:45. Do the birds know something that we don’t? They have literally swarmed the feeders for the last half hour.
Looks like the low is spinning just east of Bowling Green Ky..
they are dragging down a little cold air and precip will change over
as their temps have started to drop. Only very lite snow for a few hours
I think. Will be tomorrow morning before ROA gets the NW wind.,,but by then just departing high clouds and a little scud.
SWVA looks like a clown map on futurecast.
All snow here with my street already covered, this is a surprise.
BTW — something I haven’t mentioned yet, but have been meaning to — you can help weather researchers by reporting your precipitation at particular times on this Web site:
http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/projects/ping/
Hi Kevin, the radar shows yellow and orange for Covington, but it is currently snowing and sleeting. Do you know why this may be?
Whooh!!! All of a sudden the rain just changed into snow/ice/sleet mix…roads/sidewalk/driveway covered 1/2 deep in ice/snow….in Radford 10:57 am! wow! fast change!
Got about an inch here in Hillsville/Fancy Gap – - has snowed sleeted hard for about an hour and a half. Coming to an end but it was a nice surprise. Think it was the result of 850′s wrapping around the WEST side to the back end of precipitation NOT the CAD that many experienced this morning.
Brad: Most of those colored radar displays use ground reports to shade in their colors and kinda guess at the rest based on that. NWS radar in may places does have the capability to differentiate precipitation type now, but that data isn’t getting incorporated into all the radar displays yet.
No Newman…
the birs see the snow just like you do.
Their fields are getting covered and
they have tiny bird bellies.
There are no Birdie McDonalds…unless
you help them out.
PSK is just about out of the precip band..
Tiny bit of energy still left over Maryville
Tennessee to Asheville and insignificant…But the birds will be smiling
(though cold) by tomorrow.
Snowing now in Hokieburg!
Wow, its changed to snow here in Giles! Pouring down and ground is getting pretty white! Just saw where DT posted this could continue all day for western Virginia. Would be a decent snow if that really happened!
Kevin Myatt — December 26, 2012 @ 10:38 am 68.
And, btw, much to your annoyance NEWxSFC … NWS-Blacksburg referred to this as a “CAD event” in a discussion yesterday.
—
Too many METs…when they see isobars nosing SW along the mountains… proclaim CAD! but that doesn’t make it so. Further analysis is required to reach that diagnosis.
Wakefield gets it right…
AKQ – 409 AM EST WED DEC 26 2012
LATEST 3HR PRESSURE CHANGES SHOW FALLING PRESSURE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION SO THE CAD/WEDGE IS NOT ADVANCING…
AKQ – 125 AM EST WED DEC 26 2012
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE…
Not so much for RNK…
RNK – 615 AM EST TUE DEC 25 2012
ALL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A STRONG CAD WILL BE INDUCED WELLDOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE MID- SOUTH THIS EVENING. THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR A SIGNIFICANT ICE EVENT TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS WARM GULF AIR ALOFT RIDES ON THE HEELS OF A VERY STRONG LLJ OVERTOP OF THE DEVELOPING CAD.
From then on…the office just rides the horse named ‘CAD’ without further analysis or justification.
LWW is on the case…
LWX – 110 PM EST MON DEC 24 2012
MODEL TEMP PROFILES DO SHOW A BIT OF A CAD SITUATION BUT THE HIGH OVER ERN CANADA WILL ONLY HAVE HAD A FEW HRS TO BEGIN THE CAD SET-UP BEFORE PRECIP ONSET. NLY WINDS ON TUE AFTN WILL BE LIGHT…THEN TURNING NELY OVERNIGHT WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR STARTING THE CAD PROCESS – ALONG W/ DECREASING DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER…W/ PRECIP ARRIVING QUICKLY AND INCREASING IN INTENSITY TOWARD THE MID MRNG HRS…THE COLUMN WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
WARM ENOUGH THE FROZEN PTYPES WILL ONLY OCCUR AT PRECIP ONSET AND ONLY FOR A BRIEF TIME – E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY BE WRAPPED INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE INCOMING UPPER LOW THAT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE APLCNS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW THRU MUCH OF THE DAY ON WED.
—
AKQ and LWX get top marks for correctly identifying the in ‘in-situ’ wedge. Back to class for RNK.
This will go down as a mostly sleet storm for Blacksburg. Heavy sleet with snow mixing in and very slick roads currently
Yikes! Roads are awful here in Wytheville; we have close to an inch of random “stuff,” and yet still aren’t under an advisory except for winds!
Over an inch here at daylight and now another 1/2″ since then. Mainly sleet.
No wind and snow coming straight down.
Winds have died down here but the roads must be very slippery. I can see Rte 221, the main east/west road in Floyd and the few vehicles are going very slowly. It’s mostly farm trucks loaded with hay. The dogs are “What, you want me to go out in THAT? NO way. Not gonna happen.”
Earlier, the stuff coming down in Hokieburg might have been described as graupel or snow grains. It’s not quite sleet but is somewhat like a pellet but not quite that. Now it has changed to regular snow flakes and really coming down now, the light wind is back from the east, slanting it toward the west.
Pomposity…
Is that the new trend for the new year?
Belittling what one doesnt agree with.
That has no real societal appeal..
at least to my 35 years in the profession eyes.
See also, bumptiousness.
Had a little bit of some calm but now the wind and sleet/snow have picked back up. Ground is littered with small branches and limbs. One tree down across the road that I can see. Neighbor out cutting it up and heading out -oops he turned around and heading back home. Guess there is another tree or two down. Had a power surge after my last report so turned everything off for a bit. Temps are at 32 and we have recorded “0.47″ inches of rain in the rain gauge. Still encased in ice up here and icicles are about an inch or two long.
Sleeting hard in Martinsville as of 11:42am.
I think I feel a CAD story coming…
not to be confused with CAT.
Clear Air Turbulence…
Maybe an in-situ CAT..
A meow that wont move.
Heavy sleet falling near Tanglewood Mall, Colonial Ave is turning white
Suns out in Giles right after a huge burst of snow…finishing with a bang!
HokieTrax…is it sneet?! =D
The ground and deck are white out here, mostly sleet but there has been some snow mixed in. It seems to be slowing down right now to just a light sleet.
Well here west of the Blue Ridge it is all rain. Temps were in the low 40′s last night but dropped into the upper 30′s during the night. We have had about .55″ of rain. Now under a WWA for the backside event. Relative from PA drove in last night to avoid the storm and had frozen precip from Lexington to Radford. They arrived at 5 am and missed the worst of it. Hope we can get some substantial snow on Saturday.
Shhh – but the sun just came out and I see some blue sky. Pretty sight with the sun shining on the ice encased trees and sparkling like diamonds. Second truck went by the house but then backed up to our drive; so I guess there is another tree or two down across the road. May head outside to peruse the damage. Looks like melting going on with some of the icicles.
Jared (comment 81) – DT said this snow could last all day in western VA. Look at the radar, the precip is completely done west of Roanoke, and other than some upslope snow showers, the event is over with. Did anyone expect the entire event to be done by 12 noon?
At my home next to William Byrd H.S. it is sleeting. The deck, driveway and gardens are covered and slick.
I would have said early to mid-afternoon for end of solid precipitation shield, so a little early. But I didn’t think it would be snowing at 2 a.m. either.
Some rain showers possible later, and snow showers tonight with northwesterly upslope flow.
Radar reminds me a lot of April 16, 2011 — the downpour on the day of the Blue Ridge Marathon and tornado outbreak in central/eastern NC/Va. Both were strong lows tracking NW of us with negatively tilted upper-level energy. This sudden dry slow may enhance severe weather in eastern NC later, as it did in April 2011.
The sun is out over Glenvar!!!
Heavy sleet here in Bonsack the last 20 minutes has covered the ground and sidewalk (street clear). Looks to be done. 1250′ elevation.
Kevin, despite this storm generating discussion at times of accuracy and hyping, it seems it turned out not much different than what was being discussed last weekend. Early on the forecast was for possible snow, but likely a mixed event. As it turns out, isn’t what we got more along the lines of some of the early forecasts, more so than what was called for over the last day or two?
Coming out of downtown Roanoke toward Cave Spring was very slick about 30 minutes ago. Sun is out now and that is a welcome sight as I will likely need to go back out. I am now going to need to keep a close eye on the Saturday storm as I may be traveling in and out of Roanoke on Friday and Saturday. I hope all of you fellow bloggers will help me keep up to date with possible scenarios.
Sun is out now in Downtown Roanoke. Went from very heavy sleet/snow/freezing rain mixture to blue skies in a matter of minutes!
The sun is out now in Fincastle, bit it just finished snowing a good bit, but didn’t do so but like literally 10 minutes. I woke up to a bit of a surprise, about half an inch or snow or so, beyond a dusting, but probably not an inch. The ground is covered. Was sleeting heavily when I first got up, but was surprised because we weren’t supposed to see any snow from this here and glad the freezing rain wasn’t as bad as predicted because it is now 37-degrees and the sun popped out! DT says this Saturday could be very snowy for SW Virginia with a possible 4-8″ but NO, I don’t buy it!
Ice is no fun.
On to the next storm!
It worked out about like we were thinking last Friday or so, Trevar.
Freezing rain on 460 between Concord and Lynchburg. Several accidents and the roads are terrible. Happened quickly and motorists weren’t ready, it appears. Please be careful.
What? A dry slot in Roanoke during a winter storm? This never happens
Beet Queen, if that has to do with gardening, look at the Down To Earth blog for the RT., and come over and join in on some gardening. Go to blogs on Kevins site and look for Karen Hager and her blog.
Kevin, I recall in 2009/10 you called the pattern then a ‘parade of storms’.
Is this year anything like that, just lacking the cold?
2009-10 was a parade of stronger storms spaced out a little bit more. Recall that we had several big soaking rains that winter, too. It’s been wetter the past week, but the storms aren’t generating that level of moisture, at least yet. Today’s system appears to have underperformed many forecasts on total precipitation, with rain equivalent of .50-1.00 in a lot of places rather than 1-inch-plus.
We do have some drizzle/light rain redeveloping on radar. The colder spots around might still get a little more ice.
As it is now 35.6 in Goodview, I will assume that whatever ice may have been in the bucket has melted. With that said, we received .98 inches of precip.
Kevin, what are your thoughts on the weekend storm? Have the models the last 2 days made it more or less likely for wintery weather?
Took several walks outside in my location of southeast Montgomery County near Shawsville. The precipitation was a true mixed bag of sleet, snow, and freezing rain. The best part of this storm was the strong easterly wind that occurred with the frozen mix. The wind came in waves, and the hollow I live in helped to funnel the wind through the valleys much like some tropical storm events I recall in this area! Heavy, horizontally blown sleet occurred. Some gusts pushed me forward a few steps as it hit me from behind. A great storm to watch!
32, sun has disappeared and rain gauge says “0.53″ inches. Radar looks like more heading this way. Went outside and checked out the neighborhood – top out of one of our trees; one tree across road and blocking the southern exit and most everything encased in ice – about 1/4 inch thick.
Thinks Kevin for the website link where you can post your weather. I will check it out.
Ooops – meant to say “Thanks Kevin” -
What does it look like for Saturday storm system?
Harrisonburg got a pretty good weather event. I’m glad i left last night
We’ll definitely get into the next system on Saturday) more with the next blog post. Right now I would lean to light-moderate SNOW for most of SW Virginia with that one. Don’t see that one becoming a major winter storm, at least not for us.
Interesting graphical view of today/s snowfall distribution from NOHRSC showing a relative snow max of SW of ROA and NNE of Stuart.
http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/map_only.php?var=snow_depth_shallow&dy=2012&dm=12&dd=26&dh=21&min_x=-82.700000000002&min_y=36.050000000001&max_x=-75.500000000002&max_y=41.450000000001&bgvar=dem&shdvar=none&title=0&width=600&height=450&font=0&lbl=o&palette=0&h_o=0&metric=0&o9=1&o12=1&o13=1&o15=1
Station analysis for ROA…
http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/graph.html?station=ROA&w=600&h=400&o=a&uc=0&by=2012&bm=12&bd=26&bh=6&ey=2012&em=12&ed=26&eh=18&data=0&units=0®ion=us
Right now the next storm doesn’t look like a huge deal. Maybe a 2-5″ type of event.
One correction to a comment above: Roanoke got 1.16 inch of rain today, verfiying forecasts. Rain amounts tend to be similar south and east, a little less to west.
A 2-5-inch snow is pretty big deal on the front end of the season — or on the back end of a weak snow season. In a big snow winter, not so much. All about the timing!
I think that’s a plausible scenario right now, Brandon. Some questions about where the cold air will lie. Moisture looks like the kind of light-moderate overrunning event that we often have in winter.
If I painted all the windows and doors black, I could tell you what the winter weather was doing, without looking out, as long as I could see the blog count.
Ventured out to Saltville for some groceries this afternoon. Some wet snow mixed in with the rain but mostly all rain here. Temps were supposed to rise last night to 47 but fell to 38 and that is where they have stayed. Changeover to snow expected tonight and still under WWA until 7am tomorrow. Also went for my daily walk of 1.5 miles and that was in the rain too. The fire feels good tonight. I hope Saturday’s storm provides snow instead of cold rain. Kevin, is there any signs of arctic chill down the road?
After i left for work this morning,the sleet changed back to snow.It changed back to sleet around noon and we have about 2 inches of snow-sleet on the ground.Light rain falling now and the temp is 33.
Supper report from Dopplerville – we still have power but looks like 3300 or so do not here in the county (Floyd). Temps are sitting at 32. Still debris in our road but neighbor said you can get through. It is so quiet outside – kind of eerie in a way. Have heard ice falling off of the roof all afternoon. Too foggy to see Rt. 221 right now so not sure how traffic is moving out there.
Hope everyone is doing okay out there in Blogville. Will keep reporting in as long as we have power.
Maybe today took the edge off some rants and complaints. Like you MH, maybe the next one will be all snow. This sleet, f.rain and such jest don’t cut it. Druther see it 50* and clear than a mess like today. And the fire sho do feel good here on the mounteen.
Officially 1.3 inches of snow accumulation at Blacksburg today (snow/sleet mix). So that means (1) Dec. 26 is the first snow date for Blacksburg on the snow contest AND (2) the snow meter has busted for Blacksburg this week.
Crazy weather day – reminds me of the old Blacksburg adage….just wait 10 minutes and the weather will change. I finally ventured out to check out for some sales. Roads good. The sun did come out and it was a crystal fairyland of trees on the 460 bypass. But moody clouds in the near distance and they took over soon enough and reminded me of that term “socked in”. It was lightly snowing here around 4:45 but I took my walk anyway. A good shell jacket and I stayed very comfortable. I have to be ready for my Shenandoah cabin trip in just a week and a half.
HPC has a slight risk of 4″+ just north of our area on day three:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif
Beat me to it, Brandon. Was about to post that link.
And then there’s the accompanying discussion that begins with these five words: “THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY …”
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd
Blog gets a little more active on a weather day like today. KM did I see you say the snow meter is cumulative for the week, not neccesarily a 1″ or more snow from a single event? I agree with everyone else about Saturday-all snow or forget it-today was miserable to work in. When you work outside for a living a drought isn’t all bad!
Michael Hoback: Right now, no obvious signs of extreme Arctic cold plunging south in the next week or so. More seasonable cold with some slightly-below normal reinforcements. That is sufficient in late December/early January for winter precipitation possibilities.
Wow, what’s it take to get some Arctic air down here in Virginia? Its been 2 years since we have truely seen any Arctic air! I wouldn’t exactly say we are having a pattern change until we can actually get some cold to hold. So what’s it going to take to get some down here for snow and not just this slushy mix crap?
The track of the low was the reason you got slushy mix crap. Had it gone up the coast today, you would have got snow just like the Ohio Valley. It doesn’t take super-duper extreme Arctic cold to make it snow in Virginia in late December. Seasonable cold will do, given some other things moving the storm features around just right. In fact, the extreme cold often suppresses storms and leaves us frigid and dry. I know you don’t want that.
Just a weather note I thought was kind of odd…I just looked at my December weather data and even though it’s chilled significantly since our hey day in the 60′s and 70′s we have only had TWO nights the entire month so far below 30-degrees, that is almost unheard of. One night at 28 and one at 23. We haven’t even hit the teens any yet this season, at least not the official reading at the driest/warmest spot in the valley…the airport! I don’t think I ever remember a December with such mild lows. Novemeber’s ;ows were much colder and consistently in the upper 20′s-lower 30′s!
.. and by contrast, Scott, every day but 4 in December 2010, 2 years ago, had a low below 30.
I would dispute the airport as the warmest spot in the valley. That’s 201 West Campbell Avenue — outside the Roanoke Times building.
GLOAMING GIRL, comment 51 at 9:46. VERY FUNNY!! I have only read down to your comment, but you are definitely in the running for my vote for “Comment of the Day.” :>) :>) wd, your penalty box comment is way up there, too. Thanks, bloggers, for making the worried ol’ letter carrier smile.
Hey, Jennifer, you are very welcome about the travel advice. I was simply saying what I would have done in your location with the given outlooks for Friday and Saturday. If you had something truly important on Friday in Atlanta and were willing to put up with some (perhaps a lot?) of bad weather for the drive home on Saturday, that might have been the way to go. But last time I saw a forecast, Friday looks like excellent weather for driving ‘tween Atlanta and SW Virginia. Given how quickly things changed around here between the forecast for today from yesterday at 6 PM, that Friday forecast might go bad. ……. But I sort of doubt it.
I thought I might go up to Snowshoe next week and maybe get in a day or two of skiing. I’m not set on a date but would like to pick a cold and snowy couple of days if possible. I know its a long way out but does anyone see any potential storms brewing for next week? I’ll probably go ahead and book it this weekend after the forecasts became a little more clear but thought I’d check with the weather gurus here to see if there is hope for some fresh powder skiing.
My new blog post doesn’t get into great detail about next week yet, but how next week develops depends largely on whether or not upper-level energy in the Southwest U.S./Baja California area translates eastward, in a series of pieces or all at once. The European model is holding it back, but this is a known bias of the model. The GFS brings it out, in at least a couple of pieces. Short answer to your question, John: I think Snowshoe may be in line for at least 1 round of upslope snows next week and possibly 1 or 2 significant storm systems. That’s pretty vague, but the best we can do for now.
Greetings from just south of Albany, NY. Elevation: 46 feet. It just started snowing here about 30 minutes ago – forecast calling for 6-10 inches thru tomorrow afternoon. Local mets say the “Lower” totals could be caused by a possible dry slot forming. When I heard that I felt like I was home again! Glad the family and I missed all the “muck” today. I’ll report totals tomorrow after we play in it.
We ended up with about 1 inch of liquid water in the rain gauge today. Most of it fell as rain. There was more sleet and snow in Blacksburg.
g, comment 54 this morning, I got a kick out of your barn cat quip! Back when I delivered door to door, I would sometimes come upon a cat that acted like it wanted in, so I would knock to see if someone was home. I would always apologize immediately for bothering them if someone did answer, then would point down to eager kitty. I only did that a handful of times, but luckily my percentage was flawless … all the owners were grateful. And TYVM for asking about our poor old doggie. He is still ticking, going to spend at least one more night at the vet clinic.
Todd (Usually) in SW City: good comment! There is one ginormous difference between where you are and here; without a doubt any precip you get will (almost certainly) be all snow. There is probably a 1/2 inch of slush on our driveway, but during the 6:20 weathercast Brent Watts of WDBJ7 said that Roanoke got 1.16 inches of liquid, which if it had been all snow, might have been as much as a foot of white paradise for the 8 zillion snow lovers on this blog. This makes about 73 times since I moved to this wonderful part of the USA in which that has happened ….. :>) :>)
clarkdocvet, you are glad that you no longer work on the horses and cows now. And am I ever glad that I no longer have to walk door to door anymore!!! Today was downright miserable for our letter carriers who had to walk. Been there, done that.
Patricia at 10:27: LOL Funny!! Yeah, both of my dogs hated cold downpours. Now if it was snow, they loved it, provided that it wasn’t too deep for them. I bet your pooch looked up at you before you ‘temporarily’ evicted him as if to ask you, “Patricia, howsabout letting me pee in the house just this once???”
Gosh, dogs are so funny …..
Ice storm lover, your 1:27 comment was terrific. I am not usually a fan of sarcasm, but that “dry slot” statement has me LOL-ing!! Thanks to so many of you for being so clever and funny …. this has been real therapy for me.
George Kosko buddy, you have me laughing!! First you are practically one of the folks begging/predicting winter precip, but then it comes as a sleety mess and you start talking about the good side of a drought. Love it!! Personally, I am delighted that we got so much moisture.
I have a whopping 2.4 inches in my gauge, although 0.7 of that was from the Christmas Eve event. It was at an inch when I left for work this morning. Is it really possible that I got a half-inch more than RRA, Kevin?
Thanks Kevin. Good to know there will be a chance for some new snow next week. Their website showed that they were going to start making snow on Cupp Run tonight. With a little luck maybe it will be good to go next week.
As far as this last snow, we were on the road most of the day and mainly drove through moderate/heavy rain on our trek up 29. However It was freezing rain from about Amherst to Charlottesville. Fortunately it was not cold enough to freeze on the road. The snow/sleet must have changed over to mainly rain at some point here in the late morning, but it looks like they probably had about 1.5″ – 2″ of snow/sleet before it turned to rain.
Kevin, thanks for your reply this morning (#44). I thought it was odd that we only had a Wind Advisory when what we were experiencing was worse than what we’ve seen with many High Wind Warnings. I work in Bluefield, WV and the ride in this morning was, to quote Doppler Carol, quite the potpourri. Sleet here in Rocky Gap, snow on 77, thick slush on John Nash and 460 then by the time I got to McDonalds on the Avenue for a Caramel Mocha blue skies were popping through. God bless all the utility workers (and everyone else who makes their living outdoors) who were out in this mess today. Winds are still rough here and it’s snowing again but nothing is sticking at this point.