Not much rain later today, even less snow this week
Today’s weather: A dense fog advisory is in effect until 8 a.m. for Roanoke, Botetourt, Rockbridge, Franklin and Patrick counties eastward. After some fog and drizzle to start the day, courtesy of a wedge of cool, damp air that pushed southward and westward along the eastern slopes of the Appalachians on Sunday, we’ll see a mild, mostly cloudy day with highs in the 60s, before afternoon and evening chances of showers with an approaching cold front. Don’t expect a lot of rain — probably no more than 0.25 for most in Southwest Virginia, up to 0.50 for some. (At left is the 0Z North American Model depiction of how it projects radar to look about 7 p.m. this evening.) It will turn significantly colder for Tuesday behind the cold front, with highs not getting out of the 40s in most spots. A few snowflakes in higher elevations are possible.
Speaking of snowflakes, here is the weekly Weather Journal Snow Meter, reprinted from Monday’s edition of The Roanoke Times.
Snow Meter (12/10-12/16)
Roanoke (0 of 10 chance of seeing 1 inch of snow in next week): 0 snowflakes
Blacksburg (0 of 10 chance of seeing 1 inch of snow in next week) * 1 snowflake
Outlook: A strong cold front will push through late today or early Tuesday, but it will just bring us back to near-normal temperatures (mid 40s-low 50s highs, mid 20s-low 30s lows) for a couple or three days. The only hint of snow with this will be, possibly, some snow showers caused by northwesterly winds blowing over the Appalachians early Tuesday. That’s the only reason I’ve posted a single flake for Blacksburg. We will be well southeast of the following storm system next weekend, which will put us on the mild side of that one, too. I just don’t see any plausible snow scenarios for Roanoke this week, and only the distantly remote chance of a random snow squall early Tuesday at Blacksburg.
Season to date: It didn’t come close to snowing this past week, which began with a record high temperature of 73 at Roanoke a week ago today. My very low numbers, a single flake for Roanoke and two for Blacksburg, were actually generous. But I get wins for a week with fewer than five flakes on the snow meter that didn’t produce an inch of snow. Current records: 1-0 for Roanoke, 1-0 for Blacksburg.
December 10, 2012 - 12:08 AM
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Just beyond the range of the snow meter — the new 0Z GFS shows a coastal storm a little offshore spreading snow over most of NC into far southern Virgina on Tuesday the 18th.
http://tinyurl.com/9wqp6j8
The models have been consistent developing a storm around the 18th-19th somewhere in the East. It’s a long way off, and it probably won’t happen quite like depicted on this 1 model run. But it is a reminder that we are now in the season that the right storm in a 2-3-day favorable window can produce a significant winter storm here, even if the overall long-term pattern is less than ideal for such.
I think this will end up being an Ohio Valley or Appalachian low, and therefore a rain maker of some degree, but we’ll keep an eye on it.
BTW…that first names blizzard in Minnesota and upper midwest is named Caesar! Whatever, I think that is sooooooo stupid to start naming winter storms.
We need rain in a bad way. It’s starting to look like west Texas now on some of the farms. There are a couple of ponds locally that look like they are going to dry up.
As much as I love snow, I’ll take any precip we can get so rain is just as good as snow when we are this dry! Let it rain, let it rain, or snow!
We have not come to praise Caesar, but to bury him.
Why don’t we start naming each rain shower??? Hey, and a name for this Drought. Maybe Krusty ??
Some pretty good rains west of Interstate 77 and along Virginia-West Virginia border. It hasn’t made a lot of eastward progress yet, and will only do so grugdgingly. Maybe Michael Hoback and Kelly from Burkes Garden and others out that way and getting some decent wetness this morning.
Radar: http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/2012/04/10883/
HPC map showing 0.25 to 0.50 west of Roanoke, 0.10 to 0.25 east of Roanoke.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif
One of my former students who lives in Louisiana posted on Facebook “You know you live in Louisiana when the commute to work is like an episode of Storm Chasers…” probably in reference to the line of storms crossing that area. My son is in Chicago right now and they will get some snow showers. Still some lingering mountain fog at the base of Brush Mountain here. The mild weather is nice so I feel half crazy wishing it was colder but it feels like it should be colder this time of year.
Parts of western Kansas and the Oklahoma panhandle have gone from 70s to near 0 in just a couple of days. And of course those same areas were 110+ this past summer.
It should be noted now that the models are developing a weak wave of low-pressure along the front near the coast for Tuesday night and Wednesday. The 0Z NAM even swung a little bit of precipitation into our region — west of the blue 0C/32F line at 850 mb (about 1 mile up) — which would make it snow if this were to verify.
http://tinyurl.com/a9u5jjy
Most models are keeping moisture to the east of us. But if this were to develop just a little farther west and become a little more moist, it would be a shot at making my 0 snowflakes for Roanoke look silly. Doubt we’d get an inch to fulfill the technical requirements of a snow-meter-quality event, but I would feel silly seeing flakes at all on a week I put none on the meter.
If that snowflakes in Roanoke scenario were to verify, please don’t feel silly, Wizard. Seriously. I bet most of the bloggers here would agree with you that ROA should be getting zero snowflakes this week. I know I do. In fact, when I first read your 10:03 comment, I thought that you were speaking about Tuesday the 18th, not tomorrow.
NON WEATHER PARAGRAPH: I an home today on sick leave, FYI. Pretty bad sore throat which struck just as my workday ended on Saturday. At least it has not (yet) morphed into a chest cold or a cough. This mild weather may be helping me to avoid the latter complications.
Reading my weather station and looking at three others nearby…the Bonsack area running in the low 60s (showing 64 for me) but other parts of the ROA valley in the mid 50s.
My station ID is KVAROANO29 “Samuels Gate” via wunderground
I don’t really think it will end up snowing on us, but it will be something like this that eventually burns me on the snow meter, some kind of little disturbance or weak wave of low pressure that’s not obvious days ahead of time.
Showers from the west are going to have a hard time as they advance, as the upper flow becomes parallel to the front and the showers encounter downslope drying. That’s why the projected amounts are lighter on this side of the mountains.
Paul: I’ve warmed to 60 on the other side of the Roanoke Valley to the south, about 1,400 feet. Watched the fog roll out below us this morning. Kind of a classic wedge being eroded effect with fog/cooler temps hanging on longer at lower elevations.
Kinda surprised to learn that Minneapolis’ 10.5 inches was the Twin Cities’ 4th largest December snowstorm on record. Capital Weather Gang notes this:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/snowstorm-buries-minneapolis-northern-plains/2012/12/10/f95df9aa-42d8-11e2-9648-a2c323a991d6_blog.html
Speaking of Capital Weather Gang, scroll down here and see Weather Journal alum Kathryn Prociv’s bio:
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2008/01/meet_the_gang.html
I’m sitting at the Roanoke airport waiting to catch a plane to Charlotte and then on to Boston. The flight is running 45 minutes late due to a weather delay. The weather doesn’t look too bad. Maybe a little bit of fog around but visibility seems fine. I think it’s going to be a bumpy ride with the cold front approaching. There appears to be a pretty strong southwest flow a couple of thousand feet up.
Paul of Bonsack, you are quite a bit warmer than me. I am at 56* now. Still very gloomy here, after super dense fog when I awakened briefly at 6 AM.
Hey, wd and Doppler Carol, what are your current temps?? I find it a little unusual that I am one of the cool spots around Roanoke.
Paul: I see you just got your PWS up and running as well. My ID is KVAROANO27 just two below you, which is my main station that runs 24/7. (I also have KVAROANO28 for my second station that doesn’t run all the time). If you don’t mind me asking, what station hardware/brand are you using?
I know Kevin! When I heard on the Weather Channel last night while channel surfing, that Caesar…hahahaha, the 10.5″ Minneapolis snow, was their fourth heaviest on record, I literally said out loud, “no way”! I am positive that even Roanoke’s 4th largest on record would surpass that! Oh, to have Minneapolis/St.Paul’s yearly snowfall rates in the Star City, we wouldn’t be whistling Dixie anymore!
Scott: 4th largest in DECEMBER for Minneapolis, not 4th largest on record for anytime of year.
Based on this list — 10.5 would also be Roanoke’s 4th largest for December in a calendar day — but this list is a bit deceiving since many of our snows cross into 2 calendar days, like Dec. 18-19, 2009.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/rnk/climate/top10s/ROA/maxsnow12.txt
snow on my windshield at work (DFW) this am
going home at 6am..
Snowed like a bandit for about 20 minutes..poof gone
mostly clear skies by daybreak.
very fluffy…not wet at all.
Raised metal surfaces didnt melt much at all…
some refrozen snow right against the glass…
wind chill was 17F for a bit,,,sunny now..but bitterly cold wind.
I know..I know…I rant about Accuweather a lot, but I did take a peek and after today until January 3rd, they have no more days of 60-degree+ days. I don’t take stock in temperature/precipitation schematics over 3 weeks in advance, but just a note of interest that maybe we are finally going to cool off. They have a 9-10 day stretch of high temps that don’t exceed the 40′s, many a day scattered in the low-mid 50′s and ending on the 3rd of January in the lower 50′s, which is a bit mild by that time of the year. NO mentions of any snow though the entire 3.5 weeks, but what do they know!
Cloudy and damp 58 now much warmer than yesterday!Supposed to be near 65 for a high here.Much cooler tommorow,i hope.It does not seem like December at all.November was cooler than this.Kevin what time is the cold front coming through up here in Northen Va? Mike!
The sun popped out and it’s 68.7*
Kevin, I had to be in Abingdon early this morning for some medical tests. Rain started before 7 am and we just got home and the gauge is registering .60″. This is more than I expected and another band of moderate rain is moving into the area as we speak. I am hopeful the Chapel could get up to 1″ by tonight. Creeks were even milky as I came home. This is the most rain at one time since Sandy came through in late October. My prayer is that this next band will not dry up as it crosses the New River and Roanoke Valleys.
I have been out to lunch – really – with friends. Just read your post Doug – I hope you are drinking plenty of fluids and resting that throat. With this crazy weather, I am surprised that more people aren’t sick. Or maybe that is why there is an early start to the flu season – more folks out and about in this spring like weather.
It is cloudy here and currently 61 with a humidity of 70%. Had a few light sprinkles while I was out at lunch time but nothing to get excited about.
I agree with Scott Patrick’s comment above – any form of precip now would be good for the drought.
Checked on the amount of snow that my son got in Minneapolis – he is in the southwest area of the city and he ended up with 9.5 inches.
Joe- snow? Didn’t you say for us to watch your weather because we would get some of it in a couple days? Will the snow make it here?
Kevin, how much snow do we need to have on the ground for us to name our snow “Kate”? Shouldn’t it be in Blacksburg since she was living there.
Scott, noticed accuweather has snow in Greene on Christmas day with 37 degrees. What a TEASE!!
Very little rain so far in my part of the NRV. I’m hoping that changes, but it doesn’t look promising for this system at all…everything is lined up in such a way that the bulk of the moisture stayes to our west, and new development to the south slides to our east, leaving us in a rain hole.
Ben: Went with an Ambient 2080 with upgraded solar temp shield. With that also put up the Ambient Weatherhub (a device the size of 3 iphones laying on top of each other) that is an “always” on connection to the internet without having to use a computer. Very low power consumption.
So far both devices seem to be functioning well and I have been comparing myself to other nearby stations and everything seems to check out.
I had a Davis Vantage Pro (first generation) that just died on me after 6 years. Love the Davis equipment but just too pricey this go around. My primary goal was the internet connection to get to the “LIVE” data remotely.
Been playing with “Weather Display” software which lets me connect directly to the Weatherhub and archive the data. Can’t wait to look at this after a period of time!
What a beautiful sight.. raining here in Redwood VA (just east of Rocky Mount) at my house and raining fairly well. I’ve personally decided that ANY precip will be good this winter.. not just snow.
Paul, I’ll have to check on the Ambient Weatherhub. My model might not be set up for that, but would like the connection it provides. I have the Ambient 1090.
Everybody who did so, thanks for checking in today, especially you two, DC and wd. I made it to 61 at least (current temp), and when I glanced outside about 10 minutes ago I could see the white (former) NORAD building on A.O. Mountain because the sun was shining on it briefly (but no sun here). That means that visibility has gone from 40 yards to 40 miles in about 10 hours. Sun never came out here, and so far the rain is also missing in action.
At 12:20 I watched WDBJ7, and their radar showed rain over this part of ROA County. He said that some of it might not be reaching the ground; that was the case here …. 3rd virga event recently.
NEXRAD radar shows possibly real rain just west of here …. we’ll see if it makes it here and how much I get. I’m betting not more than 0.15 inches ……. if any. May that sentence turn into a typical Griggs prediction ….. wrong. Oh, and thanks for the nice wishes, wonderful D. Carol.
Sharing my day with you…
http://www.wfaa.com/news/local/Light-snow-over-North-Texas-182814021.html
There were quite a few “potholes” on the flights today. It’s a very mild 58 degrees in Boston right now. The warm weather has been to my advantage today. If this had been a snow event it would have been a difficult trip.
Oh thanks Joe! LOL just kidding, funny how a state bordering the Mexican border gets snow and we can’t even get a day with highs in the 30s. Watched Dave Tolleris YouTube video today and he sounds like he is wishing and hoping for a pattern change himself. He says models have it warm through December, but he is hoping January and February will be cold because of the QBO? Sounds like wishful thinking like last year! I will go ahead now and declare winter over. We might sneak a couple inches in somewhere, but up here east of the Blue Ridge I don’t hold much hope. Oh well, least the golf course will make money.
Oops…forgot to check in. Out flying again. Wow! Jason in Riner, nice to see we are in the same city tonight. We are staying at the Westin in downtown Boston. I should have said I would be in Bean Town on Monday. It’s a short stay as we are back out Tuesday midday to San Jose, California & before finishing the day in Vancouver then back home via Dulles late Weds. Will try to update website when I can. Looks like our route will take us right over the center of Caesar. It was a little bumpy climbing out but not too bad going into BOS this afternoon. Expecting fun ride Tuesday with strong tailwinds home Weds. Sure Joe will verify that @ FL410 or 430.
Et tu Brute?
58.5* and only a hint of rain. Shore not enough to make a mud pie.
Jared: Seven of the first 10 days of June were below normal in temperature. No sign of any heat waves on any long-range models. What if we’d declared summer “over” at that point? Won’t have any hot weather in summer 2012. Won’t be hot enough to fire off any severe storms, I guess.
Quags.. is FL 430 equal to 43,000 feet? Never been on a flight that high! Usually 33,000 to 35,000.
Hmmmm. Let’s see.
1959-60, 62.7 total inches of snow. Zero before Dec. 31.
1965-66, 49.9 total inches of snow. 0.3 before Dec. 31.
1986-87, 56.0 total inches of snow. Zero before Dec. 31.
1989-90, 14.4 inches before Dec. 31. Total inches: 16.1 inches. Zero in January, 0.2 in February, 1.7 in March.
These are Roanoke numbers that will vary elsewhere in Virginia. But the point is, the very idea that 10 days at the start of December, or the entire month for that matter, necessarily determines the course of winter shows no regard for weather history or the big picture of atmospheric dynamics over a season. Declaring a season “over” for a particular kind of weather — any kind, any season — after 10 days is nothing but folly.
If you want snow here, Joe’s news about snow in Texas should be welcome to you. The Arctic air is punching very far south. There were single digit temperatures at our latitude in the Plains states. This is the way mild patterns are beaten, a chunk at a time.
GFS still flirting with borderline snow scenario next week (Dec. 18-19, familiar dates) but Euro is much farther inland, and likely more correct with the prevailing pattern. Has the best chance to be a needed soaker we’ve seen in a while, but as today has shown yet again, something has to really tap the Gulf deeply and bring it up at us east of the mountains rather than from the west if we’re going to get meaningful widespread rain east of I-77/West Virginia border.
I heard a sound that I have not heard in quite a few weeks here during late afternoon ….. the drainpipe outside this window made sounds from the water running down it. Alas, it lasted all of 5 minutes. We did get enough to form two teeny, tiny puddles in front of our garage door, but amount in the rain gauge? Possibly 0.02 or 0.03 inches, basically a few drops. I see that wd is in the same rotten situation as me. Carol, Nurse Snow, Kevin if you are at home this evening, how much at your homes?
A somewhat impressive but small cell is working its way through Hobackville, Snowville, Marion, and up into the northern half of Wythe County north of I-81 (sorry, Rick …. it sure looks like it is missing you). Normally it might be a decent chance for at least Other John to get some rain in eastern Pulaski County, but with all this dryness recently, I will bet against it.
Heavy rain in Mendota, Virginia. Drove home from Bristol at 7pm and could barely see.
Winter storm… “Caesar”… Really!? Please stop TWC, it’s embarrassing for you, you’re better than that!!
Matt…
Yes to your question. We normally cruise from 40000-47000′
The rain has tapered off and our total is 1″ for today. Good rain and needed. Wind is up and temps are dropping. Down to 45 degrees now with highs around 40 tomorrow. Have rebuild the fire tonight. Let the pattern change begin – one step at a time.
Paul: I have the Ambient WS-1090 from about two years ago and the anemometer stopped working and got jammed about 3 months after I installed it. I just recently popped the anemometer off and cleaned the bearing and added some oil on it and it seems to work like new again.
As a fix for the Ambient, I went with something a little more pricey and purchased the Davis Vantage Pro 2. Just got that installed about a week ago and finally got it uploading to the internet. I really like the update speed on it (2.5 seconds) and it seems like it’s built to last. So we’ll see. Really looking forward to getting some longer term data from it.
As for uploading data, I’ll shamelessly plug CWOP for you or any other PWS owner. It’s a great way to share data and it is sent directly to NOAA as well as over 800 other organizations that rely on weather.
Link to CWOP that I forgot to post in my comment above:
http://www.wxqa.com/
Here is a link of PWS around the Roanoke area that are participating in CWOP: http://www.findu.com/cgi-bin/wxnear.cgi?call=KJ4KNU
Lucky Eva and Michael. Congrats. And it was great to hear from you again, E-lady.
It sure looks like La Senora Gorda has sung as far as any more raindrops for the Roanoke valley tonight and tomorrow. Dang!! …. I predicted correctly for a change (about the rainfall locally). I knew I should have invoked “Khan.” That sometimes has worked for me in the past in desperate situations. And this situation definitely fits that.
Would be nice to get a cool summer for once! Cant really remember the last cool summer to equal that warm winter. Seems it is much easier to have a warm winter then a coolsummer. Might have had a cool summer about a decade ago! LOL
July 2009 was one of the 10 coolest on record, and the coolest in several states just to our northwest.
Actually, this summer wasn’t as hot beginning to end as the last two — it was extremely hot June 28-July 9, pretty hot rest of July, and not bad at all early-mid June and most of August.
Hey ya’ll. Been a busy dude these past several weeks but I’m still here and will be frequenting this page as the semester slows down. Winter is coming.