Not much snow cover yet south of Canadian border; cooler weather the next few days, then milder for weekend
Today’s Weather Journal column: Teleconnections link weather near and far
We’ve talked quite a bit about the thick snowpack covering much of Canada and how that will help (and is helping) cold air pool and recharge north of us, a source that will be tapped from time to time this winter and may eventually sink south in a much larger way. However, looking south of the border, there is an unusually small amount of real estate covered by snow in the United States (not including Alaska). As of Tuesday, only 7.6 percent of the U.S. had snow cover, mostly the higher elevations of the western mountains. In each year from 2006 to 2011, there was 25 to 33 percent snow cover in the lower 48 by this time. And in 2005 there was more than 45 percent. You have to go back to 2003, the first year the remote sensing snow cover data is available on the web site linked here, to find a year with even similarly low snow cover in the U.S. by early December — about 13 percent — and that changed quickly with a winter storm that gave our region about half a foot on Dec. 5-6. Factors at play in lack of snowfall: The predominant west-southwesterly flow around the dominant Pacific Northwest low-pressure vortex (the PNA-negative pattern), ongoing drought in large parts of the country, and the utter lack of a discernible southern branch of the jet stream pumping wet storms off the Pacific across the southern half of the U.S. There are some changes developing that will likely turn more of the country white and wet — more so over the central U.S. than here.
We have a cold front moving through this morning that will pull temperatures back the next few days — only a little cooler today with highs around 60, but closer to 50 on Thursday, and lows going back below freezing most spots the next 2 or 3 mornings. We warm up again for the weekend, at least with some 60s, before another cold front in the early to middle part of next week brings a somewhat sharper, but still short, shot of cold air. This front and low-pressure system have the potential to bring us more widespread rain than we’ve seen in weeks, but it appears as if the heaviest rain will move into the Ohio Valley, with some heavy snow on the backside of the storm farther west.
December 5, 2012 - 10:12 AM
RSS feed 
How is that pattern change looking from mid month on? I think the storm Dave Tolleris was talking about after the 15th has proved once again to be figmant of imagination and just a tease! This is starting to act like last winter yet again! Talk of a pattern chance in just a few short weeks, hold on snow lovers the pattern is soon to change is all we heard last year! Fastforward and now it seems to be the same ole wait a few more weeks and we will get a winter pattern. LOL think these long range guys keep talking pattern change to keep folks coming back to their websites! So much for that phenominal snow pack in siberia equaling such harsh cold LOL! Oh well guess we can enjoy another non winter and plenty of insects next year thanks to the warm weather! ARGHHHH I hate warm weather in the winter when its suppose to be cold!! Ok gotta go take a chill pill now, LOL Later everybody!
Jared: Ir’s Dec. 5. Go take that chill pill.
Afternoon 12Z models are encouraging for that ever elusive pattern change after the 15th. I like what I saw and it is much better than the previous runs.
Good stuff. Will analyze the ensembles later this evening. Let’s wait & see if this trend continues. I have a hunch they will. Jared, it’s going to be OK. Don’t jump off the “pattern change” cliff with the Weather Weenies. lol!
Fall 2001 I was in St Louis training
folks on their new computer system.
I remember just how warm it was there
the first couple of weeks of December.
We wanted to stay long enough for a “weather session”
One never came so we came back to Dallas…
Here is a bit in your neck of the stratosphere of 2001..
some of you may remember it being so close to 9-11.
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/presto/presto2001/2001dectable.pdf
Correct Mr. Myatt. Yogi said it best.
Oh its just I am looking at Accuweather long range until Christmas and not a single day with highs in 30s! Most are upper 40s and low 50s. I just don’t see any real pattern change, looks to be normal to slightly above and not much precipitation of any kind. Guess I am just losing hope already, because its looking like the same song and dance from last winter!
Doom and gloom has alredy set in still 3-1/2 months of winter to go. Amazing. Ain’t heared da fat lady sing yet has you?
Jared-your county was under a Blizzard Warning on October 29th. We had our winter excitement for 2012-13 already, so what if it occurred before Halloween. LOL. By the way, still patches of Hurricane Sandy snow to be found above 4,500′ in the Grayson Highlands this past weekend. Incredible.
Yes, Jared my boy, fellow golfer, take the chill pill, with plenty of food and water. :>) :>) :>)
Hey, Jared and Scott, since you two snow and cold lovers seem to be waving the white flag recently, do you care to make a friendly wager? I bet the first ten days of January are at least 2 degrees colder than normal overall for Roanoke. And the normals then are probably something like 46 for high and 27 for a low. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they were -5.
Jared….you sound EXACTLY like me and I have written comments on this blog very similar, haven’t I Kevin? Kevin also told me to CHILL….hahaha…and he’s correctamundo as the Fonz would say! I just hope his context of CHILL is LITERAL! Come on winter 2012-2013!!!!
Doug Griggs,Doppler Carol,Leo Lady,Hokie Trax,thanks for the very kind words about my story,will never forget that day,and will probaly never see a white christmas like that again.Nice day again down to 45 now and slowing dropping,my son is out on the grill cooking Italian Sausages for my birthday today.I bought myself a case of the Banquet beer from Golden Colorado!LOL!Have a great night all.P.S.Jared in Greene County don`t give up this early as the Carpenters used to sing it`s only just begun!The snow will be here soon!Mike!
Currently 36 up here on Doppler Ridge.
Jared, remember the story about the boy who kept yelling the dam is breaking, the dam is breaking and the town would come running and each time he was just telling a fib. Then the dam did break and no one believed him when he was yelling that time. Sort of like the folks saying the pattern is changing. Eventually it will – guess we just need to be patient.
Nurse Snow – my bird feeders have been out for about a month or so and the birds are flocking to them. I need to refill them just about every other day!
Isn’t it amazing how the snowpack pretty much follows the Canadian border? I remember when I was a kid headed to Disney World, the snow line abruptly stopped at the North Carolina state line. I wonder what it is about human boundaries that influences snow cover.
Jared did sound similar to you, Scott, but Jared self-prescribed his chill pill in his comment and I just agreed with his prescription.
Killer tornado today … in New Zealand.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/8044114/Tornado-reported-in-Auckland
Happy Birthday Mike in Marshall! What did you wish for? Snow?
Other interesting and volatile weather around our world….Category 5 typhoon in the Philippines and coldest record in Tuk, Alaska this season, -58 degrees if I’m NOT mistaken. That cold has to give sooner or later. Last season, there wasn’t much cold or snow in Canada or Alaska, which made our winter sooooo warm!
Actually, Alaska did have an unusually cold winter last year while the lower 48 toasted. But a much different situation. The cold wasn’t as expansive in the Northern Hemisphere as it is this winter.
Big post on Capital Weather Gang for our own Kathryn Prociv (and I will keep calling her “our own” even now that she’s hitting the big time in weather reporting).
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/atmospheric-road-blocks-keep-weather-pattern-warm/2012/12/05/95aa4c88-3e8c-11e2-bca3-aadc9b7e29c5_blog.html
Alaska can keep the below zero stuff to themselves, but I will take a day at 28-degrees with Robin reed’s infamous line….a flurry or two…LOL! When he says that, Katey bar the door, big uns abounding!! hahahaha
Uh, everyone, there is a pattern change going on even as we speak ….. only it won’t be one that affects us. Denver Colorado reached 68* today. Friday’s high? 48. Sunday’s high? 28. As someone posted somewhere recently (it might have been Dave Tolleris on his website), we cannot focus solely on what is happening in our own back yard … or small region.
Scott and Jared, I have to admit that this winter just might be that incredibly freaky exception of a winter in which there was a humongous snow blanket in October in Siberia, a ton of incredibly cold temps in Alaska and NW and north central Canada, ample snow cover in Canada, but the eastern US never turns really cold for any extended period of time. But I will not believe it until “La Senora Gorda canta” (the Fat Lady sings).
I think there is an extremely high probability that in either very late December (after Christmas, probably) or in January there will be some Arctic outbreak. Don’t know when, for how many days, or how cold it will get, or how far south it will go, but it will reach us. Or so I am predicting.
I just noticed something interesting when I checked the monthly number for the NAO index. BTW, it was not that negative …. only -0.58. The NAO has been negative using the monthly figures for 7 straight months now, starting in May. It was extremely negative in June and October (-2+) and fairly negative (-1.32) in July.
Guess what other “teletubby” has been on a 7-month streak of being overall negative? The PNA. It has not been nearly as negative as the NAO was at times, but it did reach -1.18 in October and -1.10 for November.
I just mentioned the possibility of a really freaky winter …. could it be that the PNA will switch to + during the same month that the NAO switches to positive??
Matt; Often political boundaries (those humans draw up to divide states/countries) follow a significant geographic boundary, like a major river or mountain range. In those cases, there may well be significant atmospheric divisions along those boundaries. As for the U.S.-Canada border, it does often seem like the jet stream often sets up pretty close to it in late spring to early fall and then anytime a warmer pattern sets up in cooler seasons.
Blacksburg Mike: Do you really think that 0.6-inch snow excitement at Blacksburg on Oct. 29-30 won’t be topped in the next 3 months?
Doppler Carol,yes i`m wishing for snow but would love to see some around Christmas!P.S.Thanks for thinking about me on my birthday!Have a great night and we want snow!!!
Can somebody put up Quags site? The more knowledge the merrier.
I’m glad we’ve been having warmth. Spring just needs to get here already!
Quagmire’s site:
http://quagmireweathercentral.webs.com/
Need to see about adding that and Capital Weather Gang on the sidebar here.
What is the latest information on that December 16 storm Quags is talking about? Is that the same one DT was referring to?
KM-I would certainly not bet my life on it (Oct. 29 being the biggest snow of the season in Blacksburg), but I cannot deny that very strange feeling I got that day as I watched the early season snow fly, and stared in awe at the NWS website that was lit up simultaneously with Blizzard Warnings and Flash Flood Warnings, that somehow it just felt like this was going to be it for snow in 2012-13. And now we just came through a very cold November that produced nary a flake. I also just have a gut feeling that the elusive pattern changes will be very fleeting, like a mirage, and that if they do come, they will be very cold but also very DRY. Hope I am very wrong.
Jared…
I’m out flying around today and will update my website later on today after the 12Z model runs. Will post on ton of info in the blog and forum pages about the upcoming pattern change & updated winter weather forecast.
If you want the cliff notes version, yes the cold is coming along with a pattern change starting next weekend.
We got down to 20 degrees this morning. Lots of frost.
If we can maintain golf weather for a little bit longer and then plunge into some snow…I’ll take it. I want to get a couple more rounds in before the winter weather starts up. Got a couple new (to me) clubs I want to test out. And while I have played golf in sub-freezing weather and in a nor’easter before…I didn’t pay for those rounds of golf. They were fun learning experiences, but I don’t play golf in bad weather or cold temperatures nowadays.
On snow cover following state and country boundries..
Maybe its mostly just two things.
1) The northern and southern boundries of many states
are set along parallel lines to earths latitude ..(36 degrees
30 minutes is much of basis)and
2) The fact that when you have zonal flow of the jetstream
across the U.S. the snow line will likely be be at least nearly parallel to the jet stream.
Models have been advertising wet looking storms around 14th-15th and again 18th-19th off and on. If these storm systems are real (big IF), the placement of cold air becomes the question mark. it looks to be colder overall on both storms that it is now. 14th-15th storm may be an Ohio Valley storm that rains on us, not unlike the early week storm next week, while the second one may have some potential to go farther east. Both bear watching, because the models are placing some highs in southeast Canada where cold-air damming might be able to develop.
Blacksburg Mike: I’ll grant you it will be hard to match the totality of that event the rest of this winter in terms of pure meteorological intensity. And I think cold/dry is a possibility — though I’m leaning to something a bit more snowy. But cold/dry would probably still get Blacksburg to at least double-digits snowfall with upslope/clippers/1-3 light-medium events, more if there is just 1 somewhat larger storm. I do think we’ll have something more widespread this season than just West Virginia/far SW Virginia/Tennessee-NC high country getting buried.
Doppler Carol, I need to get my bird feeders out soon. I just haven’t taken the time to do it yet.
I know Griggs and Sammy are happy with the current weather patterns. I’m just looking forward to being able to link to youtube videos about snow soon LOL
As a self-described snow hater, I have to admit that the lack of wetness, be it via rain or snow, has me concerned. I have to agree with Jared’s doom and gloom post (post #1) because this winter somewhat resemble last year’s winter, which we really didn’t have one except for one big snow day in late February, IIRC.
Really hoping that we can have a good soaking soon.
I think we get decent wetness in the next couple of weeks after this one.
Jared, in your comment you mentioned the accuweather extended forecast, I think beyond 10-15 days out that is only a reflection of average temps. I do know that over the last several years of following accuweather, often even their 5 day forecast is in complete contrast to what the mets on the site are discussing based on models. Now that does not mean you are wrong, just that using accuweathers long range forecast may not be very helpful.
Accuweather just put up another article about Sandy and why the Warnings were not issued from the NHC.
Kevin, I can only hope that we do. Fall of 2011 was very wet, but the flip of the calendar to 2012 introduced dryness for January and February. The spring rains from March-May balanced it out, but going back through June 13th, close to 6 months (176 days), our cumulative precipitation total is a paltry 12.75″…about 70% of normal. The previous 164 days (Jan 1 through June 12) saw 17.89″ of precipitation (right at 100% of normal). It’s dry.
Our 5.25″ annual deficit is entirely from mid-June through now…with most of that coming since mid September. Since the 20th of September, we’ve gotten just 3.02″ of rain…43% of normal. But, since October 10th, after the last decent period of precipitation, we’ve totaled just 1.61″ of precipitation over 58 days…33% of normal. But the most stark is the past 3ish weeks. Just 0.11″ of rain in 23 days…not even 6% of normal.
Kevin, at the beginning of these comments you told Jared to take a chill pill. That’s exactly what we want – chill – winter chill. Guess we are out of luck about getting it in a pill may have to wait for a pattern change. It did get cold enough last night for me to rebuild my fire. Had one continuously from Oct 27 until November 30 but I have to admit some days it got awfully warm. Not sure I can keep it going this weekend – we will see.
19 degrees here in Woodlanw this morning, and just 38 at noon. Quite a difference from where I was one week ago…
Matt, thanks for your comment about Accuweather’s article on why NOAA/NHC did not post certain warnings about Sandy. I think all NWS affiliates need to either create or start using an “EMERGENCY BULLETIN” sort of alert. For any time when a major weather event, one that can be pinpointed to a certain geographical area (unlike most tornados, except for a general region), NWS and its buddies need to use it to warn folks of possible/probable severe flooding, snow, extreme heat indices, wind, storm surge, icing, you-name-it. That might have helped the folks in Sandy’s worst-hit areas prepare for it a little bit better, for example. And broadcast such warnings on TWC and all television and radio (and even social?) media.
I was at 31* this A.M. (and that was at 8 AM, when I awoke!) with a medium frost. I cannot remember any other late autumn when I have seen as many frosts as this year, and we have lived at this house since late JAN 1999.
Right now we have C-W-C conditions, clear-windy-cold. OK, mid 40s at midday in early December is not truly cold by long-range normals, but it certainly feels cold compared to temps the past week or so. Dew points must be down in the teens or low 20s.
Hey, Michael Hoback, why do you want cold temps? I can understand that if it leads to snow, but if it is cold and dry, that means you will be having to get more firewood and using it to keep the house warm. Tougher on your animals, too. Just curious.
I really liked your 10:40 comment, Other John, golfing buddy. You have pinpointed when it started getting really dry here in SW Virginia. When I looked back through the Daily Climate Data website for Roanoke and Blacksburg, I also noticed that it sort of started in late September, but I still think that the ridiculously cold outburst of Columbus Day (October 8th) somehow triggered it. Roanoke had received just about 1 inch of rain during those first 8 days in OCT, but has received roughly only one inch TOTAL(!!) since then.
I’m not sure I agree with the need for anymore “warning” when it came to Sandy. That was the most talked about storm prior to landfall that has ever happened and if they somehow missed the week to week and a half of non-stop media coverage then another warning by the NWS or NHC was not going to make any difference. That was a massive storm that was fairly accuratly predicted, both in landfall and hazards involved. If you live near the coast you should know to pay attention when a storm that large is coming towards you.
Hey Doug, I guess I am making the assumption that when and if the pattern changes, the snow will come also. I could be wrong about that. Also, I am hoping cold will help eliminate some of our pesky bugs since the brown bats are dying out. I am a seasonal person and like all four seasons but after this year, I am happy to be alive in any season.
Good suggestion Doug! Maybe it would be in the best interest of the NWS to join the social networking bandwagon, or have an app developed that will run in the background on peoples’ smartphones with watches, warnings, and whatnot. I’m fairly confident that people in the northeast were warned plenty far in advance by the media, when in essence, I think the NWS should have activated the Emergency Broadcast System, or something rather than straddle the fence wondering what kind of system to classify Sandy as. Just seems like another case of government bureaucratic red tape to me.
Link Time! In the following order, the outlooks for (A) the AO Ensemble;
(B) the AO GFS;
(C) the NAO Ensemble; and
(D) the NAO GFS Outlook.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_mrf.shtml
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm.shtml
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml
More in separate comment
Gotta disagree with you, George. People like you and me and anyone on this blog who pays attention to weather, you are correct. And even those people who watch network news knew that Sandy was going to be very big and would be likely bombing the NJ and Long Island coastlines. And I am not criticizing the actual forecasts at all.
I am criticizing the categorization by the NOAA/NWS/NHC folks. And I am basing that on all the chatter throughout the big networks on the reaction of many average folks in the most severely affected areas who claimed they DIDN’T know that Sandy was going to be that devastating. One of their “reasons” (more like an “excuse” perhaps, to you (?) and me) is that there wasn’t even a hurricane warning.
Chris: Next week we’ll have a few days like that after a strong cold front goes through. Today was actually only in the 40s for highs and 20s/30s for lows, but it’ll be a singleton. Gonna take some time to establish a more long-lasting cold pattern, so more up-and-down stuff into the next week or two.
Thanks for the praise, Matt.
Getting back to the telecommunictns, it looks like the AO has gone a bit more negative during the past 4 days (top graph of the ensemble). Seems to be about -1.1 now. It looks like the future outlook for the AO (the 2nd thru 4th graphs of the ensemble) is to go to -2 or possibly even -3 for the next 2(?) days, then retreat a bit back to -1 or so. There are differences among the 3 graphs, which I do not understand, even for the next 7 days. The GFS AO graphs show a plunge to -2 or so over the next 7 to 10 days, with the timing of that plunge being sooner on the 7-day than the 10-day, which is at -2.2 or so on the 10th day, Dec. 16th. The 14-day GFS NAO shows a much, much different look. A cooling for two days, then a big warm-up all the way to neutral by the 13th and staying near 0 through the 16th, then another big dip to -2.7 and even -3 on the 19th and 20th. But the 14-day GFS NAO outlook can be way, way off sometimes, so keep that in mind.
And based on the precipitation trends of the past two years, MH, your area is more likely to be wetter/snowier than those of us much further NE of you. So cold weather your way IS (probably) more likely to lead to snow, rather than just cold but dry.
Kevin, who is the “Chris” that you referred to in your 4:48 comment?
The NAO outlooks. Widespread agreement here ….. MUCH more negative numbers on all future outlooks, both ensemble and the GFS. On both the 7-day and 10-day GFS outlooks, the NAO will go to -3 near the end of each graph. One neat thing that you can identify is, the GFS model is the 3rd-most negative spaghetti strand on the top ensemble graph.
Chris actually commented in the previous thread at 2:39 p.m. today. I approved his commented but didn’t see which tread it went in.
The first 5 days of DEC are in the books, and what an epic “blowtorch” they have been. Blacksburg is 10.7 degrees warmer than normal, and ROA is at +12.1. You definitely should have gone with zero snowflakes for this week, KM, not that it makes any diff for your win-loss total ….
Yeah I was about to do zero snowflakes but wasn’t sure at the time about the timing of the cold front which now looks to arrive late Monday, after the period of the first week of the snow meter.
Ok.. I absolutely LOVE snow, and truthfully, I think this could be the year.
First of all… Winter hasn’t even STARTED yet.. it doesn’t until december 21st… and It’s been a while since I’ve seen any significant snow in this neck of the woods before december 15th. Second, We have had tons of frost this fall.. which has to be a good sign. When I look at the extended forecast..starting next week temps will drop into the mid to high 40′s…and stay there. AT LEAST, we aren’t still in the 60′s. So long story short.. IT AINT OVER TILL THE FAT LADY SINGS!
Mr. Myatt, you are far too lenient with your self set rules for your snow meter. You have a 50/50 chance of winning the entire season. 100%. You need to reset the difference between win and lose. If you need help, please don’t hesitate to ask. I’ll give you a snow meter that will let you work for your prediction.
Disagree totally, WD. I’ve made this HARDER for myself with this up or down/ win-loss thing. I expect to do no better than about two-thirds and would be very happy with three quarters, unless the winter is uniformly warm like last year and therefore easy. Typically, there are too many late-week potential systems that I’ll have to gamble on one way or the other from several days out, too many sneaky disturbances/clippers/upslope snow events that can pop up that won’t be clear the previous weekend. A heavier snow squall goes into Blacksburg for just an hour when I have 3 or 4 snowflakes, dumps an inch, and I’ve blown the week. If we get into a winter like 2010-11 with frequent small disturbances, many of which miss, I could easily go sub-.500. I actually made it HARDER for myself by making a 5/10 call that doesn’t happen a LOSS, instead of a tie or half win/half loss. There is NO advantage for me sitting on a fence at 5 flakes — when I call 5 flakes, it will just be showing a very low confidence in a potential event, but I will lose nonetheless if it doesn’t happen.
I could have made this easy on myself with partial victories/losses for in-between snowflake numbers. But this is all or nothing each week.
I’m also sure, most of the folks on this board are too polite to point out a stacked deck. However, I’m not one of them. Ain’t a bookie in Vegas that would take the bet if you were givin 10 to 1.
Deck is stacked against me, WD, when on one Sunday have to make a call on a system the following Sunday. I might get a few gimmes here or there with a Monday storm that looks to be a pretty sure hit.
I am quite certain I would NOT have gone 5/10 or higher on the Dec. 18-19, 2009 storm the previous weekend. Would have settled for 3/10-4/10 or so. And I would have LOST on an 18-inch snowstorm!
Brayden: Meteorological winter starts Dec. 1. Astronomical winter begins Dec. 21. And to be fair, as I point out in new blog entry, we’ve had substantial first week of December snow events in 2002, 2003, 2009 and 2010, so some expectation of early December snow is not out of kilter — though it’s not necessarily a determinant for how the rest of the season will go.