Some moisture the next couple of days to dampen the dryness
UPDATE 9:50 AM: The weak wedge is a little slow in developing today, so with more sunshine, we may get well into the 60s. END UPDATE
Moisture has not been abundant in recent weeks, but it will be a little bit damp, maybe even briefly wet, over the next couple of days. The first trigger is a weak cold front that will slip southward and stall over our region on Sunday. Some easterly winds flow along this front will bank moisture against the mountains for a “wedge” effect, with clouds, fog and perhaps some light rain or drizzle. Temperatures will start out above normal lows that run in the mid 20s to low 30s — we’ll be in the 40s, mostly, some upper 30s — but may have trouble rising past 60 with this wedge present. By Monday , a low-pressure system tracking out of the Northern Plains and across the Great Lakes will sweep moisture northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico along a cold front. The southwest flow ahead of this low will not only thicken our moisture, but push out the stalled front and wedge, and lead to almost as much warmth as last Monday, with 70 degrees possible in Roanoke and locations to the south and east. We will probably see some fairly widespread showers — maybe even a few rumbles of thunder, with a strong thunderstorm wind gust or two not out of the question — Monday afternoon and evening. It appears, however, as if the richest moisture will slide just to our west, into the Ohio Valley and along the western slopes of the Appalachians, but some 0.25 to 0.75 rainfall amounts may occur in most of Southwest Virginia. Certainly not a drought breaker, but at least a little wetness for a region in growing and intensifying states of dryness. This cold front will have some Arctic punch, but the windy cold behind it will only carry us back to near normal for early December — mid 20s to low 30s lows, mid 40s to low 50s highs — for a few days before the next mild trend ahead of the next developing storm system in the central U.S. Higher elevations may see a few snowflakes early Tuesday, but this doesn’t look to be a substantial upslope snow shower event.
The early week storm looks to be the first of maybe 3 or 4 (or even more) similar storms in the next 2-3 weeks (or more) as punches of Arctic air collide with the mild Pacific-influenced air covering much of the nation. Unfortunately for Southwest Virginia snow lovers, the main wintry effects will be focused on the central U.S., as they are tonight with blizzard conditions in the Dakotas. It’s a volatile pattern setting up nationally, the results of which may set up our weather pattern for the heart of the winter season after Christmas and into early 2013. I still think we end up cold by late month and/or early January, but much is unsettled.
December 8, 2012 - 11:10 PM
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It’s late at night, and I just made the mistake of surfing youtube. But I found a bit of a gem. Want to see George Carlin’s character Al Sleet? He talks about mudstorms. Click on the link and the “Al Sleet” stuff starts at about the 2-minute mark …. consider this a “Two Minute Warning.”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YHFLTb9Fp18
Lots of frosty mornings lately and more recently lots of foggy mornings. Maybe that is what all those foggy mornings in August meant.
With a third of December almost over….how much above normal are we currently at for the month?
Blacksburg is +9.1 and Roanoke is +9.6 from normal through the first 8 days of December.
Had a nice rain this morning and is still coming down lightly.A mild 48 outside now.Have a great day all!Go Redskins!
Kevin: Where do you get your temperature departures from? Any good links?
Ben: Right here
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/climate/f6/html/F6.html
Mike: You are underneath the wedge that hasn’t built southward toward us quite as fast as expected.
Weather service thinks it gets to roughly the Roanoke River by sunset and then retreats. Hard to plot these sometimes. Meanwhile, it will result in a sunnier day than first thought down here.
Getting ready to go cut down Christmas tree in shorts and flip flops. It does not get any more depressing than that.
Yes, Mike in Marshall, go Redskins and beat the dreaded Ravens. But watch out for a late game comeback by the raucous Birds (which is what ravens are, believe me). They have won at least a couple that way this season, and the ‘Skins have lost a couple that way, I think.
Major feature in this weekend’s outdoor NFL games (including Balt. @ WASHINGTON) … rain. Games at Washington, Cinci, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, NY Giants in East Rutherford, NJ, Seattle, and Foxboro (tomorrow night). Tonight’s game on NBC is likely to have snow: Detroit at Green Bay. Maybe you snow lovers can get some vicarious thrills from that.
Kevin:Still cloudy up here and temp has not changed its still 48 but the rain has moved out.Hope you get some much needed rain down that way today.Have a good afternoon!
Want to know where “our” rainfall has been going for the past 3+ months? How about the Cincinnati area. Here are the rainfall totals by month for the Cinci airport, which is actually across the Ohio River in Covington, KY:
September: 7.18 inches!!
October: 2.99
November: 1.08 (OK, they were dry last month, too)
Month-to-date in December: 2.17, and definitely getting more today and tomorrow.
This reminds me of what happened in 2007, I think, even though that was an El Nino year (a weak one). Rainfall went up the Ohio River valley and left us dry.
Same sort of thing has been happening in Pittsburgh, too. Their monthly totals starting with Sept. are: 4.80; 4.44; 0.37; and 1.56 this month so far.
Mike from Blacksburg: Try tornado sirens on Christmas Eve. That was my Christmas 1982 in Arkansas.
Finally looking a little more “wedgish” here in Roanoke. But a weak one.
Doug Griggs i don`t care for the Ravens either.Wow just checked the 2:00 Va, temps and it was 71 in Marion.Thats too warm for Dec.Still 48 here,temp has not moved all day.
December winds…
Here you go Kevin..
Sit back…Flash back.
http://jeffherzer.com/page.php?p=14
Remember this warm December..
as tomorrow the winds could begin to
Change.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TXPY61BeOwI
Couple sprinkles here in Franklin County earlier. Overcast now, but not looking like rain. I think tonight is another Blue Ridge jumper according to the radar. All the radar returns headed up the state line to the northeast. Maybe better luck tomorrow.
The wedge has finally moved in full throttle into Roanoke — low clouds, fog playing with ridgetops, and a bit of a chill in the wind, though not really much of a “chill” for what December should be.
Joe: Great find on the Jeff Herzer page. Dec. 2-3 and Dec. 23-25 brought Arkansas tornadoes and flooding in 1982. Incredible weather month in my memory. Following December in 1983 brought snow, ice and below-zero temperatures. Went from low 70s on Christmas 1982 to -6 on Christmas 1983.
Clouds down on top of the mounteen. 6
So has the pattern change been officially put off again until January (like last year lol)! Oh well at least today was kind of winterish here! We are setting at 49 degrees here in Greene with clouds and drizzle. Only bright spot is we are getting some rain! Just unbelievable how for days the models call for cold all the way to the east coast and then all of the sudden out of the blue its cut off in the ohio valley! I mean if models are this finicky no wonder the weather men are never right 3 days out! I think the October snow has cursed this winter just like last years did! OH yeah and Dave Tolleris your Siberian snow pack theory is a joke!! I think from now on the only way I will keep up the weather is by looking out my window! This is so depressing!! Spring time in Winter!
68* at 1 PM and 58* now. Got a 2 month supply of wood in DC. Under the deck, covered and in the dry. Now bring on da rain!!!!!!!!
Doug Griggs how about those Redskins, i can`t believe we came back and won that game!But those Cowboys still came back and beat Cinncinati.Anyway cloudy up here and its down to 47 now.Have a great night all!Mike!
I just looked at the current drought monitor map, and then clicked on Virginia, and as we all know it ain’t pretty. By doing that, the Univ. of Nebraska – Lincoln folks have a chart showing what the drought situation is and has been statewide. One year ago 100% of the state was drought-free, not a single area was even “Abnormally dry.” On 1-1-12, a tiny 1.56% of the state was in D-zero, Abn. Dry.
On the Sept. 25th map, 54.3% of state was not in any drought, but of course 45.7 was at least D-0, and 12.2% was in D-1, Moderate Drought.
Now? Only 36.3% is drought free (Northern Virginia, eastern Virg. and the counties that border Kentucky). 28% is D-0, and an alarming 35.7% is in D-1, Moderate Drought. Including Roanoke area, Montgomery County, and Patrick, Floyd, Henry, Franklin, Bedford, and Pittsylvania Counties and City of Lynchburg, to name the places closest to Roanoke.
Mike in Marshall …… HOORAY FOR WASHINGTON!!! Just a great, great win for the Redskins. Other unexpected wins today by Dallas, San Diego, Philly, and most of all by Carolina over Atlanta. Pittsburgh and Cinci blew games at home, just allowed the NY Jets back into the playoff hunt.
Links to today’s CPC multi-day forecasts. Computer only generated.
6-10 day: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/index.php
8-14 day: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
Three big features. Intense cold over Alaska. Hardly any areas of the lower 48 expected to be colder than normal on either map, with large chunks of warmer-than-normal areas. A lot more green than brown on the precip maps. Do you believe these maps, folks?? I am skeptical of the 8-14 day.
Here are the monthly rainfall totals for a city much closer to SW Virginia than the other two I showed earlier. Beckley, WV. Only about 100 miles or so as the crow flies west of ROA.
September: 5.30 inches
October: 4.49
November: 0.68
MTD December: 0.35
After Church we went out out and drove with windows down. Came home and took a 2 mile walk in short sleeves. Then took my grandson and my nephews for a ride on the farm in the truck. Came back and burnt some trash and old wood out back. Temps have been in the high sixties and even at dark it was warm. I know we had evenings in the early and late summer cooler that this one. Had .25″ of rain last night and hoping for more tonight and tomorrow.
Jared, what on earth was that harangue about? I told you very little has changed. We are in a period when punches of Arctic air will be interacting with the mild air over the U.S. causing storm systems that will help pull cold air southward which each one. The timing of how/when/if that will eventually lead to a more widespread cold pattern is uncertain. Could be 2 weeks, could be 3, could be a month. But it’s weather, nothing is guaranteed. And no one is owed anything by the weather. It’ll do what it does without deference or apology to anyone.
The Arctic air arriving in January instead of December would not make the Siberian snowpack theory incorrect. In fact, it would probably make our Arctic outbreak a lot worse, arriving at the peak of winter instead of prematurely or tardily like it has tended to in many recent winters. You might not like it, though, it might be cold and dry and suppress storm systems south of us. We’ll see.
For the record — I haven’t changed ANYTHING about my winter expectations yet. I’ve always said I thought this would be a January-February winter pattern and not so much in December. If we get to the end of December with zero snow at Roanoke and Blacskburg I might be a little high on the 26 and 31 inches projections, as I was counting on just a single wintry system in December. Still a lot of time for that.
In 6 weeks or so, if this isn’t coming off as I thought, I’d revaluate. Chucking a seasonal forecast based on the first 9 days or even 3 weeks of December is a little like presuming your favorite football team is going to lose just because the other team scored first.
Jared, the sooner everybody quits paying any attention to any models, forecasts, predictions that over 2 days out, the happier they’ll be. And in most cases, only one day out. The store will either still have bread and milk or jest do without. Canned milk will do for the little ones and the bigger ones could probably stand to cut back some anyway.
Doug, what I think is happening in the next 2 weeks is that a lot of places in the central and some of the eastern U.S. will get like 2 days of cold then 3-5 days of warmth, so the average is going to tilt warm. We’re getting jabs from the Arctic air mass, not uppercuts yet — though dont’ tell that to Minnesota today where up to a foot of snow has fallen.
Jared-at least you are not living inside the Beltway. Here we are on December 9th, and folks inside one of our country’s largest urban heat islands are still mowing their lawns. The temp at Reagan National has only dropped to freezing (barely) twice so far this fall/winter, one day at 32 and one day at 31. It could always be worse. And lest we remind you again, your county (albeit it was for Skyline Drive, but I digress) had its Blizzard Warning on October 29th. I feel your pain, but like KM says we are not “owed anything by the weather.”
As for tonight — I don’t think the showers in West Virginia will even get a chance to jump the Blue Ridge, they’ll stay west. Whatever dampness we get tonight will be from this wedge that has settled in with the low clouds, fog and drizzle. More substantial rain late Monday, but even that doesn’t look like a soaker. I’m think a quarter-inch for most, maybe a half-inch for some.
A depressing stat for winter lovers that I just tweeted: Roanoke’s average temperature the first 9 days of December has been 51.3 degrees. The first 9 days of December a year ago, the start of our 2nd warmest winter on record: 44.6 degrees.
Watch the Green Bay game tonight if you need a snow fix!
Oh everybody quit picking on poor Jared, I feel the pain as I am snow’s #2 fan, apparently after Jared…LOL! Jared, even as cynical as this ol’ boy can be about snow, I feel in my gut we’ll be shoveling sooner than you may think. My gut knows all…hehehehe!! In response to Kevin’s last comment, so correct Kevin, we didn’t have ONE SINGLE DAY last December that went 70-degrees or higher. This year, two already, with upper 60′s too and this warm pattern isn’t over yet, however, after this last shot at 60+ weather tomorrow, that may be all she wrote for a good while with this 65-degrees+ rubbish! Even with the last winter being historically warm, we had one moderate snowfall in mid-February of generally 4-6″ in the valley. The day before was in the 60s and the day after upper 40′s and it melted quickly. I think I even remember Kevin comparing that warm winter with much colder winters, in which we got less snowfall in the colder ones because of cooler and dry. Just because we get bone chilling later in the season doesn’t always mean snow. It could mean cold and dry which also wouldn’t be good for snow lovers or the drought. I’m taking one day at a time and NOT putting much stock in all this computer flip-flop talk! Winter has yet to begin!
DEAR HEAVENS WHY ISN’T IT RAINING MEATBALLS YET?! I SWEAR I WATCHED THIS MOVIE AND THE WEATHERMAN SAID IT WOULD RAIN MEATBALLS.
ALL CAPS POSTING and poster meltdowns just complete the transition of this from being a weather board to being like politics or sports.
10.2 inches of snow now in Minneapolis. Tornado watch in Arkansas. Interesting weather happening.
KEVIN I WANT SNOW!!!!!!!!! YOU PROMISED THERE WOULD BE SNOW BY THE END OF YOUR FIRST…… Sorry I forgot what blog I was on.
I must admit the warm slowness December hasn’t been too much of an inconvenience for me lugging around a newborn.
Yes, Kevin, talked to my Minneapolis son late this afternoon and he was out walking in the snow. He said they had about 7 inches and it was really coming down. It was a light dry snow – not heavy and wet. He said they were expecting up to 12 inches. I told him to send some this way.
Damp feeling up here on the ridge but the temps are not that bad – low 50′s this evening.
Wood pile is covered – just in case the rain doesn’t jump the mountains.
I don’t know about y’all, but I’ve enjoyed this above normal December! I guess I’m a warm weather minority here!
Deep breath snow lovers- This will be an above average snowfall winter.
Let’s let winter get here before we go off the deep end of despair.
Going along with Kevin’s post #37 these are my average temps for the first 9 days of December the last 7 years. They are from the Penn Forest weather station which is on the PWS network. My site is normally cooler then the airport but the numbers also show the much warmer average of this year compared to last. The station only has records back to 2006 so for what its worth these first 9 days of Dec have been unusual compared to the last 6 years anyway.
38.7 – Dec 2006
40.3 – Dec 2007
34.4 – Dec 2008
40.2 – Dec 2009
31.3 – Dec 2010
43.1 – Dec 2011
50.5 – Dec 2012
I think what I am so upset about is I work all summer in weather that is hot as hell! I at least expect winter to at least resemble somewhat cold weather. I just don’t think I can take another winter like last year and all indications so far is its just like it. Tolleris and others come out saying pattern change will begin middle of December and now its pushed back into January. Why does this resemble last winter so much? Like I said the summers produce God awful heat, all I would like is to see some decent winter weather! Guess I need to talk more to the Guy upstairs.
Great advice comments, wd and george k. Looooooonnngggg way to go. I think a couple of people here have been watching intently what some models have been showing (luckily for me I don’t usually play that game, except when someone posts a link or describes one here), and IMHO they are often (like 75 to 80% of the time) too “optimistic” about both rain and especially snow for our region. Especially when many Virginia counties east of I-81 are in moderate drought. Now there is a factor that is UNDER-ESTIMATED by many models, but not by Mr. Myatt.
Great stuff, Aaron, and TYVM. Your comment came on board while I was typing mine. That 31.3 of 2010 would have been a half-degree lower if the strong cold front of December 1st had come through about 7 or 8 hours earlier. It was 61 at 12:01 AM during a heavy rainstorm; by 6 AM or so it was down to 45* at my house.
Kevin…im in on overtime tonight
to put the planes to bed and plan for the early AM..
My secondary job is to be the relief pitcher..or sorts.
I will make an offering here later tonight.
light on the politic with more color toward weather
if I can..
(There are those at the R/T who sometimes think the sun rises
only to make it easier to see themselves in the mirror!!)
I know from Whence you Wince..
politics and downpours thus not everyday
coincidence.
Actually, this winter is WARMER than last winter, so far. But over 9 days that doesn’t mean a whole heck of a lot for an entire season. You can find historic examples of warm Decembers leading to cold overall winters … and warm Decembers starting warm winters.
I still think the pattern is starting to change, but change is a process, not a destination. Getting the lower Mississippi Valley severe storms/northern Mississippi Valley blizzard today is already an indication of something different going on. Previously, it’s been cold and wet in the Pacific Northwest and mild just about everywhere else in the lower 48.
Watching the Green Bay game and heck its even to warm there for the snow to stick!
Actually, the December of 2009 started out fairly mild, and looked what happened on the 18th. The valley’s single largest December snowfall since 1969′s Christmas Day treat! I am in no way, shape or form saying that will happen this December, because it won’t, but January lurks and awaits us! This December is starting out much milder than any one I can remember since 1984, when I was a kid. I think as the months winds down, some days in the 30s-lower 50′s are thrown in the mix for daily highs and this pattern begins to disintegrate, the balance will be there, if not a hair warmer….but I assure you we will NOT end the entire month being 9+ degrees above normal! I guarantee it.
You are right Doug (comment #50) for Dec 1 2010 the station recorded a high of 61.4 at 2:04am and a low of 32.7 at 11:39pm once the front had moved through.
Kevin…
Very correct..
Texas is a mirror of your fall…
we are getting our first taste in the AM..
Still hedgy on if anything white will come…
If you think there is an over reaction there
in the media , you should see this place..
You would think they are planning for an asteroid impact.
And the tv camera vans will drive 100 miles just to get some
flakes on camera..and report remote ..as much as anything to have
something to show at 5pm..(and in case it misses us altogether).
Could get in the 20-s here the next few nights….
Stay tuned…film at 11.
It’s not sticking in Green Bay because they have pipes under the field keeping the surface somewhat warm…. they even commented about how green the pipes kept the grass….
Green Bay is also on the south edge of the snow shield, so it’s not snowing all that hard. Heaviest is to north/northwest.
Chicago today has tied its longest streak on record of days with no measurable snow at 280. That’s 1 day longer than Roanoke (not a record here) — the clipper that dropped 0.4 inch here on March 5 got to Chicago a day earlier, and it hasn’t snowed measurably at either spot since.
Blacksburg’s streak without measurable snow is only 40 days, since Oct. 30.
Interesting note about the Detroit at GB game. The Lions have played all their home games at an indoor stadium for decades, first the Silverdome (I think) and now Ford Field. But they are giving the Pack all they can handle so far, in snow. Maybe they ought to consider going to an outdoor stadium?
Very interesting statics about the consecutive days without measurable snow, KM. TYVM. Back to the here and now. I almost think that Scottie has transported me to dear ol’ London town. Very thick fog. 53*.
41 foggy,drizzly degrees here in Woodlawn…went to Green Bay for a couple of games a few years ago. Was so cold at game time that my beer was turning to slush in the can!! Great experience in Title Town,USA…
When it is crystal clear here, I can see the former radar building on top of Apple Orchard Mountain, at least 40 miles away. Right now the visibility is not all that much more than 40 yards here.
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