Some more rain Monday; colder air on track for next weekend
An approaching cold front and a vigorous disturbance aloft will help lift some more of the moisture that has overspread our region on Monday for additional rain showers. Don’t expect copious downpours but a few more tenths of an inch, maybe locally 1/2 inch-plus, will be possible as temperatures hang mostly in the 50s. The cold front pushes through by late Monday or early Tuesday, a few snow 
showers in its wake mainly on mountain ridges along and west of the Virginia-West Virginia border and Interstate 77. After a couple of mild days, we are still on track for a rather strong surge of Arctic air by Friday and possibly a more widespread round of snow showers as cold northwest winds cross the Appalachians, with some strong wind gusts possible. There remain some questions about just how long that cold air will remain over us, and also on the evolution of what could be a robust storm system in the central or eastern United States in the days just after Christmas. My best guess, based on current forecast models and the developing weather pattern, is that seasonable or somewhat colder than normal temperatures hang on til Christmas Day or possibly the day after, and then the post-Christmas storm heads to our northwest, bringing in somewhat milder air and possibly substantial and needed rain. There is much time and many moving parts that could change this outlook to a colder or warmer (or drier or whiter) direction, so we’ll keep an eye on it. Flip-flopping long-range forecast models have already engendered much discussion on the blog Sunday.
Snow meter, 12/17-12/23
Chance of 1 inch of snow in next week:
Roanoke, 2 snowflakes out of 10 * *
Blacksburg, 4 snowflakes out of 10 * * * *
Outlook: After two easy weeks, a late-week situation has me scratching my head a bit about Blacksburg. An Arctic cold front will blow through late Thursday or early Friday. Blustery northwest winds crossing the Appalachians will likely spread snow showers into many parts of Southwest Virginia, as Great Lakes moisture is lifted up the slopes and condensed. Intermittent snow showers may continue into the weekend, depending on how fast a low pressure system crosses the Great Lakes and New England. I’m thinking both Blacksburg and Roanoke will see snowflakes flying in the breeze late this week. Blacksburg sometimes scratches out an inch from similar situations; Roanoke rarely does. I’m leaning against Blacksburg getting an inch out of the snow showers late this week, but will go as high as four flakes for the possibility.
Looking back: There were a few snow flurries in the New River Valley on Tuesday morning but little accumulation. (One commenter on my blog reported a skiff on the Appalachian Trail near Angel’s Rest in Giles County.) My zero flakes pick for Roanoke and one for Blacksburg was on target. Less than five flakes on the snow meter and not getting an inch of snow at either site means I get wins for the week. Current records: 2-0 for Roanoke, 2-0 for Blacksburg.
December 17, 2012 - 1:21 AM
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40 with fog (laying in the valleys) up here on the ridge. My rain gauge shows that we have had “0.25″ inches of rain since midnight. Very nice to have had moisture overnight. Sounds like we need to top off the wood rack in the house sometime soon with the impending cold front.
Higher elevations holding the higher temps again this AM. Jared, my son-in-law is the golf pro at Westlake Country Club and owns the pro shop there. You might know him.
Last 2 frames of the 0Z Euro are interesting for next week’s storm.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS216.gif
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif
They dig the low into the Gulf of Mexico, with lots of high pressure in southern and eastern Canada. Based on the positions of those highs, it looks like the last frame warms up the temperatures more than what would be likely for that setup in the East, but even at that just barely above freezing here at 850 mb. Definite cold-air damming signal there.
Keep in mind that this is now the THIRD radically different position for next week’s storm the Euro has shown in as many runs. Often when the Euro is moving a storm around the board this much, it can mean there is a lot of atmospheric energy that the model is having a hard time resolving. That would mean this could be quite a vigorous storm system, wherever it moves.
Let it Snow! Let it Snow! Let it Snow!
Quagmire Weather Central and Washington Post “Capital Weather Gang” are now added to regional blogs links at right, so you can keep up with the Captain and Kathryn.
Ugh, a dank, moist Sunday and all we have to show for it is a paltry 0.22″ of rain. It sure beats nothing, but that leaves us with barely a half-inch over the past 34 days. Something’s got to give…and I hope it’s whatever atmospheric force field that is blocking the moisture from making it into the region.
OJ, the recent moisture probably helped ease the fire danger more than the drought. But that’s also good. It helps.
Kevin, that second frame shows the cold diving all the way into Mexico. How often does that actually happen?
Today’s rain so far splitting around SW Virginia.
Thank you Kevin & RT for the link on the right.
I have the Weather Journal connected at QWC on the Links Page as well.
Posted a rather lengthy Monday morning update.
Will have another Blog update later after 12Z model runs.
12Z Euro for the 26th – 27th event is stronger & further south now with Low coming in from our due West over Kentucky & going due east to VA Capes on the 28th.
Bad news is the CAD (Cold Air Damming) set-up for a huge Ice Storm/Snow to Ice or mix potential. Still not convinced this is the correct solution but the fact that the Blocking is stronger on this run and the Low is further South is a step in the right direction.
December 21-22 event still brings in the cold with Lake Effect at full steam ahead.
Monday 12Z Euro loop from PSU…Look at the last 2 frames at hour 216 & 240. You’ll see what I’m talking about.
Sorry…3rd times the charm….
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html
Yes, Leo Lady from comment above – my thoughts exactly – “Let it Snow, Let it Snow”
I think 0.15″ since this started, or was suppose to start, is it. And it looks like that’s a wrap folks, at least for here.
Kevin…any chance the line of Severe T-Storms in Kentucky make it here? Look to be some hail producers…
That line may get here overnight … but I don’t think we’re unstable enough to support severe storms.
Quags: We now have our FOURTH different storm evolution for next week in as many runs of the Euro. So I’m not buying into any of them yet — but still thinking when the Euro is bouncing around that much it often means there could be a whopper of a storm developing somewhere.
DT made an interesting comment a few days ago, at least I think it was him. The models are having a hard time because the Pacific jet stream is so strong and is dominating the weather over North America, but there is so little atmospheric data being measured over the Pacific. The models basically don’t have enough data to accurately model what’s going on over the Pacific and how that will affect the weather over North America. The result is big fluctuations in the models from run to run.
I think he’s right on that, Jason. Combine that with not much data in the far northern latitudes of Canada and especially over the pole in Siberia. When you’ve got an intense Pacific flow and deep Arctic cold intersecting at a 90-degree angle over the United States, and neither one extremely well sampled, it will create lots of model confusion til we get much closer to a potential situation.
The 12Z Euro doesn’t pass the sniff test on next week’s storm. You’ve got a low over western Kentucky pulling extremely cold air northeastward through Alabama. Just can’t buy that unlikely solution unless it starts showing up over and over and over again.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif
Kevin, the frenchy, Morris Cavalier said it best: “Case so raw, so raw, what ever it tis, it tis. You know, he mought have made a good weatherman.
First, Other John, I just emptied my rain gauge, and I probably had exactly the same amount you did, 0.22 very disappointing inches. A bit more than 1/5 of inch. Just watched “7″,; and there was an interesting rarity. Blacksburg, Danville, Lynchburg, and Roanoke all had the exact same (non-zero) rain amount today. Now for the truly disheartening news …. that same amount was as close to a trace as you can get while still being a non-zero, 0.01 inches!!!
Kevin, through what day were those HPC and Euro and NAM rainfall estimates? Through tomorrow? I hope so. If they were only through today, then even I was optimistic when I said that the Euro’s (or was it GFS’?) 0.5 estimate was almost certainly going to be closer than the 1+ inches that NAM was forecasting.
Quags (or Kevin), there is one thing I have been meaning to ask for assistance for a looong time …. how does one put those “www.meteo.psu ….. ” link maps into motion?? They claim that they are loops, but I’ll be d—ed if I can figure out how to have them become a loop. In advance, thanks. DG
At least cold air hasn’t made to the orange groves this year. Last year and the one before I think, froze fruit on the tree or in transit, by a local seller and they were awful.
So DT is bringing out a new term, the Rex Block! He says because of this we will get our first east coast winter storm. Just wonder where the snow/ice line will be if it really does happen?
In case your wondering where I got the information, it popped up on Facebook a few minutes ago. DT sure is being cocky about this storm the way he is talking!
Cloudy damp cool day low this morning was 40.When i came home it was 47.Now its up to 48 and very foggy outside.Not much rain at all today,just some light drizzle at times.
Rex block isn’t a new term, just not one I’ve floated on here much (if at all). Basically, it means a high to the north sitting on a low to the south, and the jet stream weaves around them like a backwards S and the whole pattern is stuck for a few days.
Here’s the idea:
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/178/
So if this storm did materialize then the storm might be a slow mover? That would definitely up snow totals if snow were to occur, correct?
I will say this: I noticed the potential for this “rex block” — especially the strong high pressure over Eastern Canada, which may trap a low near Newfoundland — on some of the models this morning. That could certainly force a more southern track of the low. Specific to Southwest Virginia, there is still some variation within the idea of a more southern track that would have variation on what our local weather would be like. And it’s a week-plus away, time enough for the “rex block” and the storm itself to not be correctly handled. Keep it in mind, it’s a valid possibility.
The blocking would be more about directing the storm AROUND the block than purely slowing its forward motion. It would probably get to moving pretty fast once the jet picked it up.
ALERT JUST SENT IN FROM simuawips.com.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
755 PM EST MON DEC 17 2012
VAZ007-009>015-018-WVZ042-044-180130-
SMYTH VA-GILES VA-TAZEWELL VA-CRAIG VA-BLAND VA-GRAYSON VA-WYTHE VA-
PULASKI VA-MONTGOMERY VA-MERCER WV-MONROE WV-
755 PM EST MON DEC 17 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A
* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR…
SMYTH COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA…
GILES COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA…
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TAZEWELL COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA…
SOUTHWESTERN CRAIG COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA…
BLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA…
EXTREME WESTERN GRAYSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA…
WYTHE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA…
PULASKI COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA…
NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA…
SOUTHEASTERN MERCER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA…
SOUTHEASTERN MONROE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA…
* UNTIL 830 PM EST
* AT 749 PM EST…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR ROCKY
GAP…MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
* WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
BLACKSBURG… NEWPORT…
RADFORD… ROCKY GAP…
PULASKI… WYTHEVILLE…
BLAND… MARION…
BURKES GARDEN… POPLAR HILL…
PEARISBURG… DUBLIN…
SALTVILLE… NARROWS…
CHILHOWIE… RURAL RETREAT…
CERES… MOUNTAIN LAKE…
SUGAR GROVE… AND PETERSTOWN.
Doug…and anyone else
To view or work the loop on the PSU E-Wall models page. Go all the way over to the right of that model run say 12Z GFS and click on “ALL”
Next, let the page repopulate with the entire model run and then just run your mouse pointer over the “F” numbers such as f24 f48…
You don’t need to click the mouse, just run over the numbers with the pointer.
49 with humidity of 87% and we have had “0.11″ inches of rain since midnight.
Keep the information about that storm a-coming. It has my interest peaked.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
831 PM EST MON DEC 17 2012
VAZ007-010-WVZ042-180215-
TAZEWELL VA-BLAND VA-MERCER WV-
831 PM EST MON DEC 17 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A
* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR…
TAZEWELL COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA…
NORTHWESTERN BLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA…
WESTERN MERCER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA…
* UNTIL 915 PM EST
* AT 824 PM EST…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR JEWELL
RIDGE…OR 12 MILES NORTH OF RICHLANDS…MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.
* WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND POSSIBLY PEA SIZE HAIL ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
BLUEFIELD… BURKES GARDEN…
TAZEWELL… RICHLANDS…
CAMP CREEK… MATOAKA…
CLEAR FORK… BASTIAN…
HICKSVILLE… CERES…
MERCER COUNTY AIRPORT… SPANISHBURG…
KEGLEY… SUITER…
GRATTON… TIPTOP…
JEWELL RIDGE… GLEN BURKE…
RAVEN… AND FLAT TOP.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
BE PREPARED FOR A RAPID REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY DUE TO THE HEAVY
RAIN.
Storms losing steam heading into more stable air on this side of mountains. But there might be a rumble of thunder or two especially west and north of Roanoke.
Quagadelphia, in the immortal words of one Elvis Presley: “Thank you!! Er ….. thank you very much.” About getting the psu graphs to indicate the movement of systems across the USA and North America.
Time for an ill-fated attempt at a limerick in your honor, Glen Q:
There once was a man from Louisa,
Whose models for snow lovers would tease ya.
But try as he might
He often couldn’t quite
Make them come true to please ya!!
NON-WEATHER COMMENT: I’ve got the tube on, watching Jets at Tennessee Titans, and if the Jets coach had developed his own blocking scheme, there would be another version of a “Rex block.” {Rex Ryan is the head coach of the NY Jets}
Looks like Kelly Hoge in “the Garden,” our new fellow from Marion, Michael H, and possibly even Rick in Wytheville have either gotten wet or might get wet in the next few minutes. Sigh. Those lucky folks.
Out walking dogs and saw the lightning north of us. Mostly the sky would brighten but no sounds of thunder.
DC: the big storms are bypassing Floyd, most of Montgomery, Roanoke Valley, and the southern half of Botetourt. They are taking the scenic “border county” route along Tazewell, Bland, Giles, Craig, and especially Alleghany, then moving more easterly along I-64. There is a much weaker, smaller blob that was down near Galax a few minutes ago, and if you get real lucky, it might come NE and visit you for a few minutes.
Doug your limericks remind me of Doug Clark & the Hot Nuts back in the day. I remember back when they would always come to the Coffee Pot on Brambleton Avenue for their annual Thanksgiving Show. Adult in nature of course.
Looks like the line of showers/storms may be winding down crossing the mountains. Looks like they will not re-fire after crossing the Blue Ridge later.
D’ville Carol and et al…if you are referring to the after Christmas storm, I just update the Blog page at QWC with more thoughts about the future and my BIG UN. night all
We have had light rain off and on since Saturday Night. Emptied .40 out of the gauge for the entire ‘system’. Was looking for a storm tonight and had a brief burst of wind and hail but no thunder and lightening and not much rain. Glad for the rain we got but we need more and snow would be fine also. Guess we all may just “Dream of a White Christmas”. Guess we all should be investing in snow making machines if we want some.