Winter isn’t over, but may not howl much this week
Let’s get one thing out of the way first — WINTER ISN’T OVER. There seemed to be some hysteria about this on the Internet, even in some comments on this blog, based on some forecast models and various discussions about how they have lost a potential winter storm (a very iffy one to begin with) late this coming week, how they show some milder air working in by this coming weekend, and the pattern may not be setting up for a big chill over the central/eastern U.S. the next couple of weeks. Arctic air is building near Hudson Bay, and, though it will remain mostly bottled up this week and perhaps beyond, it is poised to shift south fairly easily if certain atmospheric features set up in the next few weeks. Short of that, there certainly seems to be the likelihood of continued punches of seasonable cold, which can support winter storms this time of year, given the right storm evolution and track. I fully expect to be on here tracking potential snow-making systems multiple times before January is over and into February, something I really didn’t have to do til the middle of February a year ago. Whether we get the big blast of Arctic chill, or a pattern of multiple winter storms for a couple or three weeks, I don’t know for sure — I would lean “yes” on the first and “maybe” on the second.
This week’s snow meter reflects apparently lessened opportunities for wintry precipitation with the New Year’s system — weak moisture flow, and likely temperatures a little too warm — and the strong possibility there won’t even be a second system this week, followed by slightly milder weather into the weekend.
Snow meter
12/31/12 – 1/6/13
Chance of 1 inch of snow this week on scale of 0 to 10 snowflakes, 0 snowflakes for no chance, 10 for certainty.
Roanoke *** 3 snowflakes out of 10
Blacksburg **** 4 snowflakes out of 10
Outlook: It looked like it might be an interesting week, but some late data suggest that accumulating snow will be hard to come by this week. A weak low near the Gulf of Mexico will kick moisture into cold air tonight and New Year’s Day, but it appears the moisture will be meager and temperatures, once again, crawling on the borderline. Some rain, sleet and snow are possible, but it looks doubtful anyone will get an inch. A potential late-week storm system is looking more unlikely, and temperatures may warm just a bit by the end of the week. The coldest air in the world is pooling menacingly near Hudson Bay. It will remain bottled up there for now, but may get forced southward later in January. For now, I’ll pull back on higher snow chances for this week, and go with fewer than five snowflakes at both sites, once again.
Looking back: The slim possibility of snow and sleet accumulating to 1 inch that I mentioned in last week’s snow meter for Wednesday ended up happening at Blacksburg, which got 1.3 inch. But I only gave Blacksburg three snowflakes out of 10. As a result of going with fewer than five flakes and Blacksburg getting at least an inch, I incur my first loss of the season. Roanoke got some snow and sleet, also, but not an inch, so my three-flakes pick wins the week in the Star City.
Current records: 4-0 for Roanoke, 3-1 for Blacksburg.
December 31, 2012 - 12:20 AM
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I would add this: If January/February are merely “normal” in temperature — and I mean even varying as much as a couple of degrees above normal — I would fully expect Roanoke to break 10 inches of snowfall for the season with a shot at 20+ (add at least 5 inches for Blacksburg). Expect — not guarantee. It still could be a dry stretch even if seasonably cold.
Our much warmer than normal winter last year produced a single snow event that was larger than anything in the 2006-07/2007-08/2008-09 stretch of winters, all of which were colder than 2011-12, and had a couple of weekslong periods of deep Arctic cold.
I want to say a BIG THANK YOU to everyone who has stated their concerns for my dying dog and Nancy and me. He is still alive, but struggling mightily. No energy, cannot really walk. However, I have a humble request. Please stop asking about him (and me) for the time being. Nancy and I have come to accept his passing, have been grieving already (which is crucial in dealing with the loss of any loved one … if I am sermonizing, sorry, but I “know” that from both too much experience and from reading a few articles on the subject). I will let all of you know when he is no longer with us, or if somehow he goes through a noticeable improvement, which I give a 1% chance of happening.
Thanks again to those of you who have stated your kind feelings. In fact, it has helped me tremendously in dealing with the past week/10 days.
It would be interesting to see this system tap into the Gulf or dynamically spin up when it gets near us and take everyone by surprise. Doubt that will happen but its storms like this that dont receive much attention are the ones that will give us more snow than we expected.
Anybody that missed the sky in the east this morning at 7:15 AM, missed the prettiest sight what I is ever seed.
Done to 16* this morning in Woodlawn…Definitely a “two chihuahua” night…
Kevin, you said the coldest air in the world was pooling near the Hudson Bay…I don’t have the resources to check, but shouldn’t it be colder in Antarctica, even though it is their summertime? Not nitpicking, just wondering.
Everybody keep the faith. I’ve seen it go within one week in mid-february from 82 degrees and sunny to 15 degrees and a blizzard that dropped 18 inches of dry fluffy snow. Then a week later another foot plus. This happened in southeast Virginia so, we’ve got time.
Winter certainly didn’t howl in Goodview last night. Forecasted low was 21…we only reached 28.3. That has been the pattern over the last week or so.
Matt, you may be right, though it is summer in Antarctica (last year, the station near the South Pole said at all-time record high temperature, a sizzling 11 F.)
I should have said coldest in Northern Hemisphere. That was what I meant.
Checking online, temperatures right now at the Admunsen-Scott station near the South Pole are in the -10 to -15 range. So it may actually be correct that the cold temperatures building near Hudson Bay later this week will be the coldest in the world.
Clouds interrupted radiataional cooling last night. That’s why morning lows aren’t as low as forecast. If the clouds persist, they will hold highs colder than expected today, too.
High on my home thermometer yesterday was only 34, the coldest so far this season, and well below low 40s forecasts. My shaded hillside location may have played some role in that.
Hi,
Anybody have any idea why the Blacksburg NWS radio is off the air? At least, I can’t get it in Bedford anymore. I’m only picking up the central Piedmont site from South Boston. thanks, ed
I haven’t seen any statement put out about NOAA radio being off. You might try calling the NWS office at 540 552-0084 It’s possible they don’t even know it’s off.
It’s been off the air for about three days. Ice storm on Poor Mt. got it. Still wasn’t on at 10 AM.
Thanks, Kevin. Will do. It has been off for close to a week. I just tried again after posting. Got nothing but South Boston. Tnx again, ed
Kevin,
Just called NOAA. Yep, Blacksburg is off the air. The technician says they’re having “serious technical problems” at the transmitter site, but because of the bad weather (I think it’s on Bent Mountain, isn’t it?) they’ve been unable to get anybody up there to fix it. No estimate of when it’ll be back. ed.
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/nwr/stations.php?State=VA
36 here and cloudy with a cold breeze. The north sides of the hills and the shaded areas still have a coating of ice. Still having to wear cleats on the boots to get around out in the yard. I do not see any ice in the trees at this level. I would say that the road up to Poor Mt. is ice coated as well as probably everything up there. Doubt anyone will be getting up there to fix anything anytime soon.
wdbrand,
I did catch the sunrise, but almost missed it with my camera.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/thfix3895tlu8so/SailorsTakeWarning.jpg
View towards Alum Ridge.
There’s some pretty good echoes on radar west of Bluefield. A lot of that is expected to dry up headed eastward. I guess we’ll see over the next couple of hours.
Rats. The prettiest sunrise ever, and I was not gettin’ up early to see it. But actually, because our starting time has again switched back to 7:00 at Melrose Post Office, I would probably have been inside the building when the best colors were happening …. unless the best colors were a bit before sunrise, which sometimes happens. Anyway, it was 28 here at 8:00, and was up to 36 about 10:20.
John, that’s real close to what I saw, just saw it about 5 minutes earlier before much sun go into it. Plumb perty.
Thanks for posting the link to your picture, John Mumaw. As Cleese said in the movie Monty Python and the Holy Grail, “Very nice, very nice (he said it with a French accent).” BTW, John M. or anyone, in what county is Alum Ridge?
Someone I have known and loved for my entire life just sent me an e-mail from Mass. Verbatim quote: “I am getting so that I really dislike deep cold. At $4 per gallon for heating oil, it’s very expensive. Plus, my skin dries out, and my legs get itchy, lips get chapped, nose and eyes run, and I don’t enjoy going for a walk. Phooey on the cold lovers!”
Don’t take it personally, please, snow fans. The rant comes from having to deal with that for at least quite a few weeks nearly every winter (possible exception was last winter), and sometimes most of the winter is that way up there. Plus, that person is 3 years older than me, and our advanced age does make a diff.
A moisture plume just blew up on radar to the east side of the appalachans and in all seriousness, it looks like it could snow or rain here at any minute
Has anyone heard from DT lately? His website has not been updated since 12/12, at least the “free” portion of it. Wonder how much snow he his calling for tonight/Tuesday?
Air is still quite dry down low
east Tenn through ROA-LYH,,
I think no rain today,,,early am
after sun up..
I think itll be the moisture thats
in Arkansas Northern Louisiana that
will work its way into Tenn/Va…
NWS just put in new fcst for ROA…
They give rain starting about 8am.
It could last most of the day..
Quite a large moisture plume over Arkansas right now
though the precip is fairly light.
Dreaded acronym PWINO..
HSP SA 1735 AO2 95 SCT 30/9/2918G23/009/ PWINO=
HSP SA 1715 AO2 75 SCT 30/9/2718G22/011/ PWINO=
HSP SA 1655 AO2 CLR BLO 120 28/9/2821G26/012/ PWINO=
HSP SA 1635 AO2 CLR BLO 120 28/10/2817G23/014/ PWINO=
HSP SA 1615 AO2 CLR BLO 120 28/10/2717G23/015/ PWINO=
HSP SA 1555 AO2 CLR BLO 120 28/9/2716G23/016/ PWINO
90 min or so of automated weather data from Hot Springs Va..
no live person to identify precip…It means Precipitation Identifier Information Not Operating (or available)
Looked at this as Lewisburg has ice pellets and freezing rain in fcst around 6am tomorrow.
DT tends to do more of his updating on Facebook than his web site these days. He is very active on there. Much of what I refer to above resulted from various interpretations of his comments on Sunday.
… just saw it about 5 minutes earlier before much sun go into it. Plumb perty… Yeah, by the time I managed to find my camera it had brightened up a bit.
Doug G. – Alum Ridge is in eastern Floyd County. Used to have a post office before Dulaney’s Store closed.
Nice to see that new CFS weeklies are trending colder again. There is hope. I noted this in today’s blog at QWC. Welcome to the ups and downs of the model game. Kevin is right, Winter is not over, just taking a short break. NEWxSFC…are you out there? Do you have any other info on the Stratospheric Warming?
FYI -Alum Ridge/John Mumaw- is in Floyd County – near the Montgomery County side of the county. Nice picture John M. – I did miss the sunrise this morning so thank you for sharing.
Still cloudy here and the temps are at 40 and the humidity is 36%. I have been watching radar and have seen greens and pink at the FCX site but nothing is hitting the ground. Like Joe says – it is still too dry.
Happy New Year to the Master Blogger and all the commentators out there in weather land from Doppler Carol and FCX.
Blacksburg Mike…DT just came out with a new update on the Facebook page at Noon. You just might like it. I posted his latest stuff at QWC. Here’s the link:
https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk
John from R’ville. Most of the radar returns you are referring to is Virga. Nothing is reaching the ground until you get way out west of here say around Kentuckee-o-iana. The ceiling over is at least 11,000′ at CHO so there is plenty of dry air for the snow to evaporate into plus surface temp in C’ville is 39. If this stuff holds together and increases in coverage, those flurries that are forecast for later on may become more. But doubtful
Jared, are you back home in the Stanardsville/Greene County area? I hope so. John From Ruckersville is very right … temp is only 37.5 at a wunderground location (Little Edge Farm) just NW of Stanardsville. Their forecast for tomorrow and Tuesday night is “overcast” for tomorrow, with a high of 41 but a 30% chance of rain or snow. Then low of 27 overnight (early Wed.) with a 20% chance of snow. I know, not great odds, but just maybe your home will get something.
Wunderground’s forecast for Roanoke city for daylight hours tomorrow is 60% just rain, but a 40% chance of rain or snow (low of 30*) after midnight.
John I did see the sunrise this am. Most spectacular!!!
Thanks for the pic.
Edward Martin…
The NOAA WXL-60 transmitter site is on Poor Mountain on the WVTF Tower. The Ice Storm did some serious damage to several towers up there. NOAA does not have an anti-icing antenna like what the TV & radio stations have.
The radar is filling in nicely now north of I-64. This is the beginnings of the “overrunning” event. I’m keeping an eye on this. Wasn’t supposed to be that quick or strong. The colder temps are north of 64 so I wouldn’t be surprised to see some snow flakes later on north of I-64.
BTW John M.,thanks for the picture. Great shot.
Cloudy and COLD in ROA. There’s a big flock of robins getting drunk on kudzu berries on a tree outside my deck, been here since sunrise. They’re flying around pretty wildly now! Cat’s watching them carefully–from inside the houe.
Betsy…
Do Kudzu berries really make them drunk?
Thanks DC for the pics. Great shots. Got me to thinkin about the grand-daddy of all ice storms in the 90′s on Poor Mt., Bent Mt. and other counties. The one that took down transmitters, transmission lines and a million trees. One of those in a lifetime was one too many.
Went hiking over at Bottom Creek Gorge today. Boy was it ICY!! I saw a lot of the damage from last weeks ice storm. The trail was covered in a solid sheet of ice in many places but we managed a short hike. It was a beautiful day in spite of no sun.
Great pic John Mumaw! I heard the sunrise was spectacular this AM but where we live we don’t get to see it due to a ridge in that direction right behind us.
The NWS forecast discussion this afternoon is very interesting to say the least. Let’s see we have had high temps today a full 10 degrees lower than forecasted, dewpoints are very low, the national radar has snow stretching from Colorado to Pennsylvania, and you can see the Gulf of Mexico getting tapped as we speak, and it just plain “feels” like snow outside. Does anyone else have a strange feeling that we could be in for a New Year’s surprise?
Betsy, are you sure that the robins are the only ones getting drunk? “Cat’s watching them carefully-from inside the houe.” What is a “houe?” Just teasing you!! Happy New Year, Betsy. And everyone else.
Cold this morning low was 22.Cloudy all day only made it up to 36.Back down to 33 now.Everyone have a great New Year!
Would not at all be surprised to see us start as snow/sleet mix with this, B’Burg Mike. If the surface winds had an easterly component instead of westerly, and the moisture a bit more robust, I might be all-in for your New Year’s surprise scenario.
The thermal profile has been poorly handled with the last two systems (colder than forecast last Wednesday, warmer on Saturday), so why not a third? Cutting the snow meter back to 4 and 3 from 7 and 6 at the last minute also could favor a surprise snow.
It has indeed “looked” and “felt” like snow all day. We’ll just see how quickly any of this precip starts reaching the ground. Per typical, higher elevations favored for any surprise snow potential, for (1) colder temps and (2) getting precipitation to reach the ground first.
It made it up to 41 in the backyard with no sun and no melting. Yes, it has looked and felt like snow most of this afternoon. Still nothing hitting the ground but radar showing it is up there.
Happy New Year!
Too much relatively warm air being advected in
along with this system..
Im not ready to start torch bearing
for a snow surprise.
Im not seeing a “gulf tapping” right now..
The plume out of Texas hasnt reached the point yet
where Gulf moisture is getting uplifted.
Will be interesting to watch in the late night hours,,
but based on my take on the stations to the SW im doubting
much if any will make the ground frozen…still a lot of wide dew point
spreads.
Back home in Greene! No snow on the ground here, was traces over in the valley and Blue Ridge was white. Listened to DT weekly analysis and it seems this winter has went to pot like I figured it would! Oh well, always have next year and the year after that and that. LOL
Winds at 18000ft have a very strong nnortheasterly component..
50 to 100 kts…as Kevin says no Atlantic low to pull anything back.
Im afraid its “all stocking and no oranges and nuts”
Welcome back home, JJF. I must admit that so far winter has gone as you “pessimized.”
Switching gears, I assume that the humans were back on the CPC roster. Even so, the 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks are still showing us in the likely-to-be-warmer-than-normal colors. 40% for the 6-10, and 50% for the 8-14. Neutral zone for precip on the 6-10, 40% chance of being wetter than normal for the 8-14 day.
Just wondering, Jared: What is your low bar for the winter NOT going to pot? What would the rest of winter have to do for it to not be a bad season?
Yawn…still waiting for that decent snow.
This is probably the fourth way we miss snow and the most excruciating of them all. First is cold and dry, then warm and dry, then warm and wet, and now, the pattern is ripe for a storm but there are exceptions to it!
I would tend to agree with Jared except I’m pretty confident we’re due for at least one moderate snow in a pattern change going into March. That usually happens. And February can often hold lots of snow for the area. If it could snow on Feb 19, 2012, and Mar 1, 2009, in the midst of very unfavorable patterns, then I’m not so concerned yet. Plus, didn’t the 59-60 winter not have any major snows until late January?
Whatever happened to the El Nino projections?
Nowcasting: I just looked at NEXRAD radar, and during the previous hour a band of showers that appeared as yellow entered and moved through Bland County, but when it tried to move into the western edges of Giles and Pulaski, it was quickly dissolved! Now the radar picture looks very weak. Dry air just got very hungry in Giles and Pulaski and ate it up.
I think average here is about 16″ so I will take 12″. None so far and what I read from DT doesn’t look promising. Maybe we will get a last second 2 Pincher like last year. LOL
By the numbers. With one day’s data remaining, Roanoke’s December mean temp is 44.9*, or a huge +5.8 degrees. Blacksburg: 38.8 and +4.9. Rainfall was 2.58 inches at ROA, 2.41 at Blacksburg. Still drier than normal, but not nearly as arid as both October and November were.
So I have one question Jared…. if DT, in your words, has been wrong all year about snow chances, why would you believe him now when he says winter is done?
12 inches in the next 10 weeks is very doable. If I were a betting man, I’d take the “over” on 12 inches by March 15 for Greene County — or Blacksburg, or Giles County, or Roanoke.
OK, Kevin, just so one of us will be right for one of those cities, I will take the “under” (12 inches) for Roanoke by March 15th.
Nick: WHAT El Nino?? The temperature in the 3.4 measurement area of the Eastern Pacific has actually edged downward for quite a few weeks now and is at a negative number, -0.1. Sorry, but the most recent El Nino was the one that contributed to the big winter of 2009-10. It ended in the March-April-May index reading of 2010, now more than two-and-a-half years ago.
On slide 25 of today’s weekly ENSO report, the outlook through this coming summer is for continued neutral conditions. By the June-July-August and July-August-Sept. periods, the odds of an El Nino do grow back to a bit over 30%. By the JAS period, the chances of continued neutral conditions decrease to 50%. But that far out ANYTHING can happen.
Somebody or something has resurrected the Fenway Park left field wall again over near I-77. Rainfall having a very tough time getting past it for the last few hours.
The CPC has its bullseye for above
precip for JFM over KY/Tenn…
About average temps…precip shadow does extend into
SWVA..
Even if this is close..with seasonal temps
..Im siding with Kevin.
Pocket City and Cape Girardeau may be sending
you a few winter blankets.
And for those without enough patience
to wait for January..
Heres an insurance policy…just $1.58…
I dont know if you float him in a Margerita or what exactly
but if it gets to Feb with no relief…Ill research it more.
https://marketplace.secondlife.com/p/Frosty-the-Snowman-voodoo-doll-SNOWSTORM-ADDED-by-14-carat/1685745?id=1685745&slug=Frosty-the-Snowman-voodoo-doll-SNOWSTORM-ADDED-by-14-carat
@Captain Glen Quagmire — December 31, 2012 @ 1:25 pm
NEWxSFC…are you out there? Do you have any other info on the Stratospheric Warming?
—
ECMWF forecasts continue to depict a deep layer anticyclone over hi-latitudes and getting real close to an actual split in the PV…all of which tends to strengthen the Arctic oscillation’s negative state.
No guarantee the fx of such event would delivery winter’s goodness to the east coast but it’s a far cry better than a faster spinning PV over 90°N.
Don’t we always have a “January Warm Up” and then it turns cold and snows? We still have February and even March. I am not throwing in the towel on this winter just yet. Let it Snow, Let it Snow! Think Positive!!!
NON WEATHER COMMENT: I have got the Chick-Fil-A Bowl on tv right now. and they just mentioned the season opener at the Georgia Dome on national television close to Labor Day 8+ months from now. Alabama from the SEC faces off vs. ACC team …….. Virginia Tech. Gulp.
Doppler Carol, you are definitely correct about often getting a warm spell (Friends and relatives of mine used to call it a “January thaw” decades ago) in January. I looked back through all the previous Januarys since 2000, and NONE of them were colder than 2.7 degrees colder than normal. Even during the epic winter of 2009-10 here, 14 of 15 days between January 14th and 28th 2010 were warmer than normal. Which kept the month to a -2.3 overall in Roanoke. The coldest January since 1999 was January 2003, the -2.7 degree one. January 15th-28th was the big cold snap back in that month. And about four Januarys were much warmer than normal, including Jan. 2012.
Skyline Drive has been closed the entire length due to snow and ice since Saturday. I’m hoping things warm up so my friend and I can drive on it for our cabin trip on Saturday. I know the elevation there keeps the temps lower and they do no snow removal at all but I am hopeful with temps above freezing this week.
Tina B – I love hiking Bottom Creek Gorge! In winter, you can see all the remains of the community there. It has a real history too from the Totera Indians to 30′s-depression era.. There is an article about it in the Smithfield Review, Vol 3, 1999 by Jim Crawford which you might find at the library in your area. I actually first learned about it from Kevin’s article he did years ago when.
The apocalypse was a bust so I guess we still have to do 2013. Happy New Year to all on the blog! I’m pretty sure there is more winter in store for us too.
Went for my 1.5 mile walk around 3:30 and then got on the tractor to put some hay out for the cattle. Temp was 35 and snow/sleet pellets were in the air. Not much but it was there. Short term forecast from NWS is talking of rain mixing with snow. Local TV casters forecasting rain in the Tri-Cities but mixed with snow and sleet north of TN line. Highs tomorrow in Tri-Cities around 40-42. We are sitting at 34 tonight and radar shows moisture coming. Who knows? Be nice to wake up to some white frosting.