50 possible Saturday; cold, but mostly dry, week ahead
Weather Journal column on Bedford County “snow hole” linked here
In case you missed it, linked here is an amazing time-lapse video of the snow collecting on Virginia Tech’s Drillfield, shot from Burruss Hall. And someone going by the name “Hokie_94″ posted a time-lapse video from Salem on youtube, in which the trees can be seen sagging with the weight of snow.
This weekend can’t match last weekend’s 70s, but after Thursday’s snow and a chilly Friday, it will be fairly mild following Saturday morning’s radiational cooling and snowpack-induced chill in the teens and low 20s (watch out for black ice) . Highs may be able to reach the low 50s in Roanoke and areas to the south and east, especially those with little snowpack, on 
Saturday. Elsewhere, 40s are likely, with sunshine. Sunday may be similar in temperatures, though an Arctic front will be nearing the region. Melting of the snowpack will continue, though shaded areas and higher elevations and places that got especially deep snow likely keep at least some snowpack until the Arctic blast hits Monday-Wednesday. As it stands now, it appears that blocking high pressure over Greenland will not force the most extreme cold this far south, and that the core of the polar vortex will swing eastward from a prime position to deliver extreme cold, plus the core of the cold will move east quickly. Still, lows in the single digits to mid teens appear likely by Wednesday morning across the region. A moderating trend will begin late in the week. Unlike the wet week we just had, precipitation looks to be scant over the next 5-7 days. Upslope northwest winds over the mountains and, perhaps, a few disturbances caught in the northwest flow may bring some chance of snow showers in the Sunday-Tuesday timeframe. By late week, a stronger low is expected to develop in the central U.S. and track east or northeast, bringing a chance of precipitation next weekend. I think this merits some attention for winter weather potential because, while most forecasts currently point to a storm track to our northwest and enough warming that would more lean to some rain, it is very possible that, after such an Arctic shot, cold air will stubbornly linger banked east of the mountains.
January 19, 2013 - 12:06 AM
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I will start here where I ended the last thread — ending the Robin Reed debate. No further comments being accepted for now about Channel 7′s chief meteorologist, pro or con, and no comments being accepted aimed at anyone who has previously expressed an opinion about Mr. Reed, pro or con. Let’s give it a rest for a while.
Kevin, that needs to be rested for good. Take it to Kaseys blog. It’ll fit over there.
Thank you, Kevin…people over all kept this interesting with comments per the weather in their areas, and continue to do so. Glad for a warm day today, my pine trees need it to shed the snow more. Lots of popping overnight on Thursday as pine limbs went down up here on the mountain (Woodlawn, Va.).
Looks like Friday 1/25 will be another rain to brief heavy snow event for those of us west of the beautiful Blue Ridge, followed by the real Arctic Invasion next Saturday 1/26 (colder than the blast coming on Tuesday 1/22). What say you KM?
Also, thinking the Friday 1/25 storm may actually be the “Crossgrove Storm”, taking more of a classic Miller A look, and fitting his original time frame a little better than this past Thursday 1/17.
Low this morning was 16. Amazing that there is still snow clinging to the trees. Really pretty picture this morning with the sun on the snow – lots of sparkles.
Tina B – loved your pictures!
IV John – yes, I am hearing that lots of folks will not have power till at least Tuesday. My son and family are in Montgomery County and are still without power. Another family over there has gone to stay in a motel.
Curious about an event I heard the other day…thundersnow. Has anyone or anything ever been “struck” by the lightning that produces thundersnow? Or is it more a cloud to cloud type?
Thanks Kevin, wise of you.
Look out for black ice, I slipped on a stair that looked clear. Did a classic Looney Tunes flying in the air. Luckily landed on my rear and was fine.
So Kevin, any storm chances on the models for the next few weeks? Running out of winter and it looks to be just as snowless this year as last. Least it looks like that under the Greene county forcefield!
Another snow west of the blue ridge next Friday! That never happens! LOL Time for spring, winter is nonexistent east of the blue ridge. Oops nah Goochland got 4-5 inches, so guess its just under the Greene forcefield! LOL
Regarding Friday 1/25: The Euro this morning has moved even more toward what I mentioned above, trapping cold air east of the mountains ahead of a low tracking somewhat north of us.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS144.gif
Models often try to scour out deep Arctic air more quickly than it will actually move. It is possible the storm system will end up farther south. Even if it doesn’t, an overrunning snow or snow-to-ice situation would be possible late week. There is some high pressure over New England on the Euro and replenishing cold air from Canada that could lead to a true cold-air damming situation, but even a somewhat lesser wedge situation could still be cold enough for some wintry precipitation.
Gonna keep at least one eye on potential clipper-type disturbances in the Monday-Wednesday timeframe.
Another possibility with the Friday storm is that its energy jumps from inland to the coast north of us, and we don’t get much of anything.
Beautiful day out in theGrandin Village area, but we’re still without power. Luckily we bought a generator after the huge storm last summer, and we have headlamps that we can wear at night, so we’re getting by. DopplerCarol, where did you hear the Tuesday date for power returning?
Matt – My hubby and I were sitting there Thursday evening and swore we heard thunder, I kept seeing people comment on FB about it as well. We just heard it once and I don’t think it was a transformer exploding or a tree falling. I found no trees down (thank goodness) after the storm and it had that distinct rolling rumble of thunder.
Speaking of weather, I had the oddest dream last night. I was looking out the window and the clouds over the mountain were really rolling and boiling. Next thing I knew there was a tornado and it was coming right at me! Egads, it was reminiscent of the feeling I got that evening of June 29 derecho, when I was standing out on our porch and heard the roar of that monster coming toward us. I’ll do fine with no more severe weather TYVM!
However, another snow event would certainly not be a bad thing in my eyes. It looks like little diamonds on the trees and ground this morning. There was a pretty heavy frost last night.
Excellent column on the Bedford snow hole Kevin. As someone who loves snow Thursday night was tough for me, but I think part of my fasination with weather is that no matter how much technology we have to predict weather, which has come so far, there is always a certain amount of unpredictability.
Does this type of transition typically take place near the Blue Ridge during winter storms or was this just timed perfectly to create the snow hole? In other words did the Blue Ridge mountains play a role in where the transition from upper level dynamics to low level dynamics took over?
Looking back the NAM and to a lesser extent GFS were at times showing smaller snow totals on their snow fall output maps between Smith Mountain lake to Lynchburg. The lower totals were not as dramatic as what happened and moved a little from run to run, but it was being hinted at and I kept wondering why.
Local mets introduced clouds for Friday. I think that is generally what they do in our weather office. If there is a chance of snow 4-5 days out they will say that it will be cloudy. As the storm comes more into focus, they will change the clouds to snow showers mixing with the rain, then forecast will be just snow, then 1-2 feet of snow, then when things really come into focus, they realize they have overplayed their hand and back it down to snow showers and when the snow really starts to not fall, they back it down to cloudy.
Temps in the NRV will stay below freezing for at least 72 consecutive hours this week (3pm Monday through 3pm Thursday, at least). That will certainly set the stage for quick accumulations of snow on Friday, unlike this past Thursday’s slop fest. Let’s get ready!
Morning folks. The temp here at my house here in Blacksburg was 16 when I got up, although I’m not an early morning riser. I’m the only person in my family with power. Parents and siblings in Ironto have been without power since 4:00 p.m. on Thursday. First estimate was that power would return by 11 p.m. last night, but that didn’t happen. At last check, AEP wouldn’t give an approximate time for power returning. My parents have a generator and a fireplace. Hearing my mom talk about cooking in the fireplace brings back memories of the ice storm in 1979. Back then it was an adventure and fun. I don’t think mom would say the same thing now.
And a belated thanks to Kevin for the weather blog. I am a faithful reader, but an infrequent poster. I’m glad that I knew that the weather would change quickly and that I best be getting home once I saw the changeover on Thursday. It is so good to know about potential winter weather in advance so that I can plan my week accordingly. Not to mention I often beat the rush to the Kroger for the “bread, milk, and eggs” onslaught.
AEP has their estimated power restore timeframes posted on their outage site:
https://www.appalachianpower.com/outages/details.aspx?stormName=Winter%20Storm%20-%20January%2017,%202013%20-%20Virginia
Snow is over driveway is clean but maybe 15 or 16 trees to now cut up in addition to 3 left that I had not gotten to in last ice event. We ended up with about 4 inches on the ground. Left late last night left for Litchfield and only saw 35 degrees for a low. Supposed to be close to 60 today but next week 20s show up
Blossom and anyone else wanting to know about when power “may be” restored see Paul’s (Bonsack Area) link above. Scroll down to the bottom for estimated times. REMEMBER – that is estimated!
Yes, those headlamps that you can wear are the greatest! Keeps your hands free so you can refill generator; walk the dogs in the dark; knit or crochet and my favorite one – finish the last few pages of a suspense novel. Or probably the most important one – to read the Roanoke Times!
I’m ready Blacksburg Mike. FOR ANOTHER BUST IN GREENE! Hope the new offensive staff for the Hokies football team isn’t as big a bust as the weather this winter has been!!!!
Weather channel has us at 43 and rain so I hope it stays there instead of another snowstorm tease! I know it sounds like I have a bad attitude, but the way Greene is situated to these darn mountains makes it hard for the cool air to get in here. Supposedly storms from the south offer our best snow chances, but guess not after what this last storm did. Guess the winter of 09-10 was truly miraculous for us to get that much snow, cause ain’t seen Jack since!
Another problem that will show up soon is potholes. It started last week a little bit around here. All the moisture and all the road salt, then a hard freeze next week and you have the perfect recipe for potholes. When the weather warms back up after the frigid air next week it should start the process in earnest.
I missed my low temp prediction last night, it got down to 19º instead of the 12º or so I thought it would. There was a slight breeze that mixed up the air enough to keep the temp up. The temperature actually rose from the low at 2:00 a.m. to 24º at 6:30 when I got up. It feels like spring out right now though.
Well it’s 44 at Roanoke airport, but only 35 at my house (1400 feet elev., just south of Roanoke) thanks to thicker snow cover and being in shadow of forest and ridgelline. I just fought a 3 hour battle with driveway which had an inch of compacted ice under wet snow. I think I’ll have plenty of snow left when Arctic air arrives.
This may seem trivial, but does anyone know when Cox Comm will be back up in Roanoke Cty? It takes out Internet and phone for us
Hi to Doppler Carol or anyone else. Where can the headlamps you wear on your head be pruchased. Sounds like a very good multi -use apparatus!!
Thanks !!
still a little ice in the shadows, but everything else has melted. Currently 50.2 after a low of 21.6
The NWS blew the high temp in Blacksburg for today by at least seven degrees. I will give them a break though. Since it has been so long since they had to write a forecast with a snowpack on the ground, they probably forgot how to account for it.
Change that rain to snow for Friday 1/25, to an ALL Snow event, at least for those of us west of the you know what. Latest models pointing to a nice snowstorm next Friday, followed by the REAL arctic chill.
Well I was out in the yard today and to my surprise I have Tulip and Dafadils breaking through the ground. I do not remember this happen this early ever
We dipped to 12* here last night,but in the mid 40s today. Parts of Galax (about 20 percent of town) are still without power this afternoon. Including my 80 year old mother who had to spend the night with us last night. It is true,”you can’t go home again” LOL Got her a fire started this afternoon in wood stove,but as of 4 pm,still no power,so she may be with us again tonight. Interesting comments from the Geogia Power crew that was working on the lines. They said in SE Georgia that the pine trees are not allowed to come anywhere near the power lines so it prevents a lot of these problems…hummm. As far ad thunder snow goes,we had to evacuate a ski lift once in Taos,New Mexico due to severe lightening during a snowstorm.,so I bet you can be struck by it then just like a summer storm…
NWS low temp for Friday night 1/25 is way too warm……by at least 15 degrees!
Just got back to Blacksburg where I have Internet ( still out in CC ) so I missed all the fun it looks like.
Anyways, great column Kevin. The HI res Nam consistently showed this snow hole but didn’t match it on the qpf output so I didn’t buy it. Looking back, however, it makes alot of sense. This pas storm was somewhat of a “fluke” in terms that it wasn’t your typical low passing to the South of us situation we are accustomed to.
On that note, I think if it weren’t for this past snow, we would here ALOT of chatter talking about how this cold blast has underperformed.. It hasn’t been cold this week. Wouldn’t have gotten that cold if not for the snow.. right back up into the 50′s today – tomorrow. The cold blast looks to be short lived – 3 days? before another low tracks WEST of us.
Now certainly don’t anyone take this as complaining, (I actually prefer 50′s with a snow threat or two, as opposed to 30′s with a snow threat or two), but the overall pattern this year so far has simply favored a track west of the Apps.
Even last week, we saw as many as 3 waves go along or west of the Apps before the front stalled in the Carolina’s. Heck Thursday it was 81 degrees in Central SC and pouring snow here. This can all be attributed to the SE ridge. It has been exceptionally strong this year. Check out Southern Florida – - almost broke the record for most days of 80 + temps. Not a coincidence and not just cause they are in the tropics. The SE ridge has been STRONG this year. This has for the most part worked against our favor for snow. Thursday it worked for us. Had the ridge not been so strong the front would have never stalled.
It will be INTERESTING to see what happens with it the rest of the year because I doubt it truly ever goes away this season. Our next flirtation could come Friday. Does it rear it’s head and push a low well west of us OR does the Artic air win out and create a battleground just south of us?
The overall pattern accross the northern hemisphere is MUCH more favorable then it has been in the past 2 years for winter weather. So no doubt we will have our chances and we will see winter weather in the US. Will be interesting to watch how the SE ridge affect it for our part of the world. Could be a feast or famine type deal. Should be fun.
Once the SE ridge comes back in full force though, I’d keep a sweater or two out but hang it up for winter. Let’s not forget that is only 6-10 weeks away! Then it’s sundress season
.. being a student at Tech my favorite time of the year…
Looks like the NWS high is going to verify for Roanoke officially, with 50 at the airport … last check at my house was 37. My location (south of Roanoke, 1,400 feet) is a geographic quirk though.
The one thing that might keep lows from going absolutely into the tank at midweek is not getting a clear, calm night. With lingering snowpack (even downtown Roanoke still has quite a bit in grassy, shady areas) and that air mass, I’m quite sure we would see some below-zero readings at least some sites. If it’s cloudy and windy, it will all depend on the level of cold air advection.
Possible the cold shot after Friday’s storm system may be even colder than what we see midweek.
Zach-where in Blacksburg do you live? Temps in the 50′s today/tomorrow? The official high in Blacksburg today was 44, and will be colder on Sunday. By the way, latest guidance suggest a nice snow storm for us on Friday, and as has already been mentioned coldest air of the season will come next Friday night after the snow hits. This past Thursday’s snow and the upcoming mid-week cold blast is just a prelude of the real deal still to come. It will be ok. This winter will turn out just fine.
OH no! DT is at it again! He is saying now a pretty good snow event is possible for cenral and northern Virginia on Friday. He says 2 scenarios, first would be ohio valley storm or it would cut across the Virginias, which he says the Euro has stuck to the last couple runs. He said the Virginia track would bring good snow to central and northern Virginia while southwest and southside Virginia would be snow to ice. This is DT of course who is having troubles predicting storms nowdays LOL Does anyone else have any differnet scenarios then this on the Friday storm? He also stated a bigger much more powerful east coast storm is possible during the 1st week of February! I am kind of getting sick for these snow storms not panning out the way they are forecasted, so just about ready for Spring!
Thanks Kevin, for the first comment on this thread.
I thought some of you were being overdramatic about the Bedford snow hole but when I arrived at work in Bedford today, I was shocked. There is no snow to be found anywhere, except on the very top of the mountains. Amazing.
Jared: DT actually wasn’t too far off the mark with the last storm. He was a little overly bullish with amounts in Northern VA and DC but he was one of the first to mention the storm. Not sure where you get the idea he’s been “having troubles predicting storms nowadays”.
John from Salem and anyone else wanting to know – we found our headlamps at Dicks. But you could order them from LL Bean/Cabellas/Gander Mt./REI or probably any camping supply company.
Clear, calm and going to be chilly tonight. Clarkdocvet – hope you and everyone else without power get it back sooner rather than later.
Cause Brandon he says we are going to get 6-9 inches and we got zilch! Of course the NWS said Winter Storm Warning and 6-10 inches also! OH well maybe be can squeek out a inch before this winter is over. Maybe they should call for Sunny and 50 so we can get a few inches of snow.
lower teens is pretty cold, but weren’t there times in Blacksburg where single digits even below zero were a few times a year?
Jared: I’m sorry you missed out but overall, this storm was handled very well by most forecasters. I think the majority of the people on this blog would agree with that.
Yes,power back on for my mother…now to move her food back…going to keep her wood stove going this week since the cold air is coming…if it was 12 here last night,I’m sure we will see single digits next week.
Thanks Doppler Carol,for the thoughts.
My mother got her power back, too, this evening. She lost power in both the Feb. 19 snow and Thursday’s snow, in 2 different houses, but was fine during the derecho.
Thank you Doppler Carol for the info. on the headlamp.
John From Salem* Lowe’s carries the baseball caps with the LED lights in the brim…similar results but a different fit.
Seems to me past history suggests we don’t want to be in the cross hairs of a potential snow event………….quite yet. Let the models lose it for a few days and then bring it back say Tues. night/Wed.
Oh yeah,
Walmart, Northern, Harbor Freght and I’m pretty sure Lowes and Home Depot all sell the head lamps.
Interesting info from Larry Cosgrove!
http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-houston/larry-cosgrove
It seems clear to me that the U.S. will be entering a very rough period for weather. As in cold and stormy.
The intense storm threatening the lower Great Plains on January 29 is actually a key player in the evolution of the 500MB longwave pattern for much of February (maybe the first two or three weeks; I think what transpires in the extended period will NOT carry over into March). My current thinking is the low takes a path into lower Appalachia, then moves along a frontal structure into the VA Capes with a chance for a major intensification. Keep in mind how consistent the ensemble groups have been now for FIVE days worth of runs! With the establishment of a highly amplified +PNA, -AO, -NAO configuration, the cAk vortex looks to expand and drop into Ontario and Quebec. I think the storm ejecting from the Southwest will help with drainage of colder values and expansion/digging of the motherlode. Hence the argument is in place that the coldest weather of the winter will occur over the U.S. to the right of the Rocky Mountains between January 31 and February 5.
There could be another storm in the mix as we end the first week of February, but I suspect that many will have their hands full with the January 28 – February 1 feature and the cold intrusion that follows. Under the ridge out West, mild and mostly dry conditions will be in stark contrast to the weather further east.
Aren’t you excited about this pattern?
Jared, comment 37, for what it’s worth the folks at WTOP radio, led by meteorologist Doug Hill, who is an outstanding forecaster and pretty conservative with snow forecasts, are already on board with a Friday morning through Friday night all snow event. It’s odd for them to jump on board 5 days out especially calling it all snow, so it’s not just DT chirping about the end of the upcoming week.
Jared: “DT says snow in central/northern VA, but snow to ice in SW VA”. Tell me how often SW VA (west of the you know what), ends up with less snow than central/northern VA (east of the you know what)? If you fall for that, I have some land west of I-81, close to the WV border, and above 3,000′ to sell you!
I can think of 2 large instances of that right off the bat, Blacksburg Mike: President’s Day II Storm, 2003 and Feb. 5-6, 2010.
PDII in 2003 was 2-3 feet of snow north of I-64, two inches of sleet at Roanoke and 1 inch of sleet topped by thick glaze ice at Blacksburg.
Feb. 5-6, 2010 was 8-10 inches of snow mixed with some sleet near us, and 18+ inches up in No. Va. near DC.
Not saying any of those are relevant to Friday … but sometimes we do get a north-south division rather than west-east with a winter storm.
Now, where’s my mountaintop land near the WVa border …
Here’s something we may never see again in our lifetimes. Happened January 17, 1977:
https://twitter.com/usNWSgov/status/292818450886316033/photo/1
I wonder what the weather was like in ROA on 1/17/77. I recall some pretty good snows in the late 70′s when I was a kid. Seemed like it snowed just about every other week and I put in many miles walking up the hills of the HH Golf Course with sled/snurfer in tow during those winters. I also remember a real bad ice storm in 79.
Kevin, I think you can add February 10-11 2010 with 2 to 4 inches here, and 10+ inches in the DC area. Also February 11-12 2006 with 5-8 inches here and 8 to 12 inches near DC. January 26,2011 with less than an inch here and 5+ in the DC area.
That north-south vs east-west division has been very frustrating the last 10 to 15 years. It’s why DC has had more 10+ inch snowstorms than our area has had since 1996.
Right on all three, Donnie. Check with B’burg Mike about your new mountaintop estate …
But right now, we’re really on a run of significant snows that miss DC but hit farther south — Feb. 19 and March 4 of last winter and the recent Jan. 17 snow.
Donnie and KM, very true about some of those more recent storms; however, they tend to buck the historical trends. Most of the time, but certainly not always, west is best and east is least, if you want snow in VA. Most long term snowfall averages support this as well, with historical averages for annual snowfall greater along the I-81 corridor vs. the I-95 corridor. Does not always work out that way, but I would rather be sitting near I-81 than I-95 anytime a snow storm was on the way. Mostly, though, just wanted to have some fun with Jared up in Greene. Really do hope he gets a good snow soon. Hopefully we all cash in this Friday!
… and I just want a mountaintop retreat on the West Virginia line …
I had an uncle who lived in Tampa and also had snow in 1977. He said everyone was going crazy. Can I drive in this, what do I do??? We then asked how much snow did Tampa get from this monster snow? His answer was 1/2 an inch.
Yes and they had snow flurries in Nassau and Freeport which caused all the shops to close so they could watch their big event and my new bride along with myself got to see it all. Interstate battery also has the lights that you can strap to your head. Work very well I might add
There are enough Northerners in Florida that they shouldn’t be that shocked.
Blacksburg Mike, I agree it is better to be in Blacksburg or Roanoke long term for snow than DC. Even Lynchburg or Bedford probably over time would get more snow than Reagan National Airport, which is almost at sea level.
Our area did better than DC from the 1960′s through the Mid 1990′s, but they have more large snowstorms since then. It will turn back around I’m sure.
I remember January 1977 very well. Overall trend was for it to be one of the coldest winters in decades for many states east of the Mississippi River. I was living in North Jersey and working in Manhattan. Got to escape the cold with a wonderful (first) trip to Hawaii for a week. We left NYC (JFK Airport) on a Sunday, Jan. 31st I think, and it was 9*. Charter flight, stopped in Pittsburgh late morning, it was 1* with blowing snow. Then flew over Lake Michigan on the way to a stop in San Fran. As we approached the All-American great lake, pilot comes on over the intercom: “Ladies and Gentleman, please look down below on Lake Michigan. Notice the ice pack extending out from the shoreline. I have been flying this route for 25 years, and I have never seen it more than 8 miles from shore before. Right now it is 20 miles out. For you younger passengers, this is something you can tell your grandchildren.” Or fellow bloggers on a Roanoke, Virginia weather blog. :>) :>)
By the way, it was 53* in San Fran and the earth was brown all over northern Calif., one of their worst droughts ever. We landed in Honolulu at 7:30 PM Hawaiian time and it was a frigid 76*. An amazing journey with 3 markedly different climates and weather situations.
Yeah Mike, I will purchase that land if its in the vicinity of Lake Moomaw! I love it up there!