UPDATE 9:30 AM: Bit of wintry precipitation passes through, cold til Tuesday
UPDATE 9:30 AM, 1/6: The mixed precipitation — mostly rain/sleet mix — moved through a bit earlier than expected, mostly Saturday evening. Today and Monday will be seasonably cold with highs in the upper 30s to 40s and lows in the 20s to low 30s, with a few snow showers possible in the mountains near the Virginia-West Virginia border, maybe a few flakes blowing farther east. A milder period begins Tuesday, and peaks next weekend with highs in the 60s (possible low 70s), before cold likely returns in force sometime in the Jan. 15-20 range. END UPDATE
The colder weather pattern that set in Dec. 20 after a roasting start to December is going to relent this week without producing a significant winter storm in Southwest Virginia (though some people who were iced in on Bent Mountain and in Floyd County might dispute that). But there is one more hint of wintry precipitation that could dust the area come Sunday morning. A weak upper-air impulse — one of several similar features that have been passing through lately, often clouding the skies up — may be able to lift just enough moisture for some light precipitation across our region early Sunday. The GFS model at left for early Sunday morning shows the blue line — 0C or 32F at 850 millibars, about a mile up — draped right across our area again, which means we will be on the borderline for frozen/non-frozen precipitation, depending on surface temperatures. Some rain, freezing rain, sleet or snow will be possible — but it will be light, likely a tenth of an inch of liquid or less. Light freezing rain can be a menace where it is cold enough tocreate icy patches on roads — watch out for that Sunday morning if you’re traveling in our region, especially at higher elevations. A few spots, particularly higher elevations north and west of Roanoke, might even squeeze out an inch of snow if the moisture and cold air manage to maximize their limited potential. This system will zip through quickly, and, after a brief reinforcing cold front that might bring upslope snow showers to the typical places west of Roanoke on Sunday night, the much talked-about milder pattern will push highs into the 50s, maybe some 60s, much of the week as the predominant winds turn to the southwest.
Some upper-level energy moving out of the Southwest will help organize a storm system in the lower Mississippi River Valley in the middle to latter part of the coming week that might be able to bring appreciable rain to our region as it tracks well to our northwest … though early returns suggest most of that will stay to our west. While it will drag a cold front through that may briefly pull temperatures back down, it appears that any truly Arctic shot of air will have to wait until mid-month or later.
January 4, 2013 - 9:00 PM
RSS feed 
Easy snow meter this coming week … only suspense will be whether I can find a reason to give even a single flake.
I just watched all of DT’s youtube video on his website, 10 minutes worth I think. According to him, if (and he emphatically stated that the following are big “ifs”) the MJO rotates to Phase 8 or 1 (it is in Phase 4 now, and might go through phases 5, 6, etc to 8 …. the top number, and then on to 1) without collapsing, then there would be a likelihood of East Coast cold. Also, that the QBO values, which were very negative all summer and into autumn (- 20s) have gotten closer to zero, which is a good thing for increasing the chances of colder, snowier pattern in the Eastern USA. The levels were -18 for November and -10 for December. If it gets to -5 or -4, and especially if it gets to zero, that would be great for snow lovers.
I am just trying to recreate in a nutshell what he was explaining … I don’t really understand it.
In one of my first two winters in Roanoke, either 1998 or 1999, I think Blacksburg had a very cold and snowy March. The data I have on “my” Daily Climate Data bookmark only goes back to 2000. Whichever year it was, more than half of the winter’s snowfall total fell in March. Got a feeling that it was 1998, because I remember that there were very few really cold days in January and February while I was living just SW of Virginia Western CC in SW Roanoke city, but around March 10th (?) we had an extremely cold morning with temp around 10 and a pipe burst in our rental house.
Anybody out there remember which March that might have been?
I did look at the MJO (Madden-Julien Oscillation) earlier and see it working into Phase 4. That involves patterns of clouds and rain in the tropical Indian/south Pacific oceans. If it gets toward 7/8/1/2 phases then it usually leans to eastern U.S. cold. Allan Huffman of Raleigh called the coming warm spell weeks ago primarily looking at the MJO.
Blacksburg had 17.8 inches in March 1999, Doug, per Southeast Regional Climate Center. Roanoke had 4.5 inches that same month, based on the co-op station that was serving fill-in for the non-snow-measuring airport site during the data gap.
What “may” have sent the Coyote into
Burke’s Garden in 1952..
Just a little speculation..
It would also answer why this coyote was so
hungry.
“THE MIDWEST SNOW STORM OF 1951″
March 10-14, 1951
A slow moving storm system brought a prolonged period of heavy snow to much of the Midwest. Hardest hit were Missouri and Iowa where snow fell
for as long as 92-100 hours! This slow moving storm system which had abundant moisture, produced 27.2 inches of snow at Iowa City which remains the largest snow storm accumulation in Iowa state history, with the bulk of the snowfall occurring on March 10.
We were talking about the QBO (quasi-biennial oscillation) … on the last thread, NEWxSFC just posted this link to a blog entry of his discussing the QBO.
http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2009/09/winter-09-10-quasi-biennial-oscillation.html
Thanks for identifying March 1999, Kevin, as a big month for snow. Do you know what the seasonal total was for Blacksburg that autumn/winter(/early spring)? I wonder if this winter may be sort of a repeat of that one ….
I looked at the NAO overall monthly number for December. For the first time since April, it was a + number, although just barely, +0.17. Positive numbers at the end of the month overcame generally negative numbers before that. But the negative numbers on several days before the 25th did not translate into a snowy December locally, because of the negative PNA.
I just looked back through the daily NAO and AO numbers for March 1999. Nothing too unusual for the NAO then, one streak of 9 days in the middle of the month of negative numbers. But the AO went very negative, reaching levels of at least -1.8 for 12 straight days beginning March 3rd, 1999 (the index almost reached -4 on the 10th), and remaining lower than -1 until the 20th.
1999 had a late push of cold in March. I was the recipient of 5 inches of snow on blooming daffodils one Sunday morning near the vernal equinox at my Ozark hilltop forest cabin in north-central Arkansas. Loved that place.
Blacksburg got 27 inches in 1998-99. So nearly 2/3 was in March.
What is going on with the wind tonight? We live just outside of Bedford City and having wind gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range. The forecast only calls for winds in the 7 to 9 mph range.
Some of the wind aloft from one of these passing disturbances is getting translated to the surface, especially just east of the mountain ridges, as is typical with west/northwest winds.
Thanks Kevin.
Theres also a little bit of a twist to winds at 5000ft.
abvout 20 kts over Roa from the NNW..turns south over Danville
about 10 -15 kts..looks like a clockwise rotation..Bristol ROA Danville.
Maybe some orograpic twisting with mountins around the Peaks.
Did I miss anything today? Been flying today and just got home to a snow shower here in Central VA. Just flurries but nice nonetheless.
Looks like I have some work to do on QWC over the weekend and will look at the latest info Saturday. Looks like the cold is coming January 14.
bed time for Quags.
Bernouilli’s principle…
Yeah, knew it was Moody, but spell check got me! Could kick my ancestors but for selling off the place. Would be cool to stay up there whenever I wanted, plus it would still be owned by a Giles county family. The Porterfields and their ancestors still live up and down the old Mountain Lake road to this day.
Morning Kevin: The NOAA regional observations on the right part of the column are busted again. I think they get cold and freeze.
Showing 30.6* currently and noticed some ice throughout the surface of the Little River as I drove over it this morning. I can’t remember seeing any on the water this winter thus far.
Jared…the kind of money
Moody had was otherworldly..
I have a feeling your forebears
really did ok on the transaction.
As I read the story Moody bought the
place more or less on a whim..at least
that was my take on it…
Moody himself had a link in a fairly big way to
weather. He established himself in Galveston just
after the 1900 Hurricane..before they had names.
6000-8000 people were lost in that storm.
Thanks Leo Lady. Just pointed it out to our IT department. Hoping they can figure out some kind of permanent fix.
Yeah Joe, think Mountain Lake wasn’t ran to well by Mr. Porterfield and he was just looking to get out, Moody just lucked out on that business venture! Anyhow, back to the weather! When is that cold air finally moving in?
Joe, that link to the old Weather Blog was awesome! I enjoyed that! And especially reading over the winter of 2003-2004 again. I forgot how much snow we received! The 2002-2003 winter links could not be found however.
I miss those winters! We didn’t get the big ‘un but it would actually be nice to have those two winters again! Why can’t we have a lot of moderate snows?!!?
I dont know if Moody lucked out on much,,
He was in the insurance business,,,
those are pretty calculating guys.
Note he took advantage of the 1900 hurricane
to help build his fortune.
Models im looking at show a steep invasion of cold air
(5400) line in central Texas early morning the 13th..
ahead of it strong storms possible over La and Mississippi..
by daybreak or so as of now expect precip to be apchng SWVA..
5400 line in western NC and SWVA early morning of the 18th..
looks like an easing of the cold air somewhat by the 20th in SWVA.
Nick…
this blog brought something out to me too…
I was researching the storm of 1960.
We have an old, old color photo somewhere
in my family that shows an icicle on the back of our house.
We did not have gutters on the back of the house but the roof
and back yard were so steep it was like a ramp coming off it anyway.
..That toof was about 12 or 13 feet off the ground in the back.
The snows stayed on our roof for probably 2 weeks . Im guessing we burned
coal almost continuously during that time as many people did,,,and we had very little insulation.
Point being there was an icicle in this photo that was 12 or 13 feet long. It went from roof to ground . It was 8 or 10 inches thick or so at the top and had a huge mass of accumulated ice at its bottom. My folks wanted us kids away from it as they were afraid it’d fall and thin out our herd.
WWA just hoisted in Ashe County, NC (just southwest of Grayson County). Maybe we can stir up a little snow here in the NRV late tonight?
Front page article on Accuweather this afternoon in talking about the coming mid-January cold air says – “Folks in the Applachians may not want to sell their snow blower just yet.” Last time I checked most of our area was squarely in the “Appalachians”. We shall see…..
B Mike…
Models surely back this up..10-12 days out…
ear biting cold mid month..
Be ready.
NON-WEATHER COMMENT: Blondie update. A new soul has just entered “Doggie Heaven.” We had to put him down today, just a few minutes ago. Basically he had lost the will to live. Even the vet was stunned by how much he had failed in just the past week. he had pretty much lost the ability to walk, and he wasn’t eating, either. Nancy and I thought we were ready emotionally for it, and I was doing pretty well until we got home. Then I opened the door to our house and it hit me … Blondie will never be here again to greet me/us. “Lost it” for a couple of minutes. We are now without a dog for the first time since Thanksgiving 1984.
I again want to thank all of you who sent me your regards, and especially to those of you who prayed for him. He did make a doggie comeback for a few days, but had really gone downhill big time since late Wednesday.
Suggestion: rather than take up space here, a really short message will let me know how you feel. If you wish to make a comment of a few sentences, of course go ahead. But a simple “C, D” can stand for Condolences, Doug and I will know and appreciate what you are thinking.
If any of you want to send me a private e-mail, and if Kevin does not mind, just e-mail him and ask him to contact me for permission to exchange e-mail addresses.
The overnight system appears on radar to be doing that north/south split thing — best dynamics to the north, best moisture to the south, neither great. I’ve noticed NWS has dropped probabilities some to around 30% in Roanoke/New River area.
For once, I’ll agree with Accuweather about not putting the snowblowers up. Not sure about the snow potential mid-late January, but of course if it is cold again, that’s half the battle.
C,D
Doug, so sorry to hear about your blondie boy. Losing pets is never easy.
C,D
Doug and Nancy: Heartfelt condolences. Having been where you are, I grieve with you and will be remembering the two of you in my prayers.
Rich, if you have time in your busy scuedule, you might want to look at post #31 on Jan 5 as to why some things are equally as important as weather. Have a good evening.
Doug,
Very sad to hear about your beloved Blondie Boy and your message made my eyes watery. Dog’s are like family and even better than some of family in my opinion!
C, D
Mr. and Mrs. Griggs:
I contribute rarely to this blog, though I read it daily. I don’t know you, though I wish I did. I am sorry for your loss, truly.
I was reading through The Roanoker Magazine today while at work and noticed a section quizzing us on our Roanoke knowledge. One question was about matching the names of Roanoke Times writers with their correct description and lo and behold I see Kevin’s name in there. Here’s what it read:
“Never saw two fronts he didn’t think could really maybe possibly perhaps collide in some meteorologically insane fashion and create snow, lightning, derecho winds and 12 inches of rain in the space of an hour.”
Of course the answer was obvious!
To Doug: My condolences. (C,D)
C D
I have been lurking on here since few were looking at it (2007). I have never commented but I have enjoyed this blog in all seasons. I just wanted to offer sincere condolences to Doug Griggs. We will also pray for you in this difficult time. Pets are truly family members for most pet owners and the loss of a pet is correspondingly painful.
C,D So sorry for your loss.
NOn-Weather. Thanks, KM, Jennifer, Trevar and JE. So much for me being “ready” emotionally. I have broken down quite a few times now, not for me, but for how much the little guy “struggled” so much over the last two weeks, and especially the last 3-4 days. I’ll be OK in a couple of days. By then I will force myself to remember him as a young clown of a dog.
A cold 24 this morning.Don`t know what the high was as my wife, her sister, and myself was at Charles Town Races and Slots today.Had a fun time and i actually came home ahead for the second time in a row.Doug Griggs very sorry about your dog!Thats never easy.Cloudy now and 35.Have a good night all!
C,D
Doug- so sorry for your loss. My prayers to you and your family. On the weather note- we have freezing rain in Buchanan.
I, too, am not a regular commenter, but aldo wish to extend my sincere condolences to the Griggs on the loss of their companion.
In weather-related news, we’ve been getting sleet/freezing rain a few miles west of Fincastle for the past 20 minutes, but it seems to be abating now.
C, D
Ben: Oh, the Roanoker. They ran a full-fledged parody of my column a few years ago. I appreciate good parodies, and anyone should consider it a compliment when they get parodied, but I didn’t think that piece quite got the essence of Weather Journal down. I think many of you could do a better parody of me than they did. The more recent quote you posted is a funny blurb. I’ll have to go get a copy (and would love to see what it says about some of the other writers). Always appreciate the publicity!
Some showers of something on radar moving through now. Saw at least 1 report of sleet in Christiansburg.
TYVM (“Thank You Very Much” for any new folks here) to wd, Scott S., Katie, Vickie “Z”, Ben G, of course you Doppler Gal!!, GALS, Carolyn. I am feeling better already, and also feeling honored. Really Blondie is the one being honored.
doug, hang in there..time heals.
This is getting out of control (just kidding). TYVM to all of you!! Time for a happy face :>) :>) .
WEATHER COMMENT: I just took a look at today’s computer-generated multi-day outlooks, and to my untrained eye they appear identical to yesterday’s versions. If they verify, we may be getting wet again, which will be a much bigger, better story than the January mild streak. Just spoke with a lifelong buddy who still lives in MASS. They are supposed to also get much milder weather next week, possibly 50. Since they reached zero just a couple of days ago, that would be a real January thaw for them.
My condolences, Doug.
Mr. Griggs so very sorry. When I can write it down I will post something that will bring a tear and a smile to you at the same time. When we lost both of ours this past year it still helps to read the words. Will keep you and your wife in our prayers
Just had really heavy sleet in Blacksburg. covered patio.
Maybe I’m missing something but what do the several comments mean that simply say….C,D? We have had sleet pelting the Fincastle vicinity as of the last half hour. I heard the little bouncy noise and sure enough, looked at the window and sleet was bouncing!
Scott: See comment 31, 5:40 p.m.
Doug, C, D and ditto Vickie’s comment #39.
I’m going to give SW Virginia snow lovers a chance to be pumped for just a second with this statement from Larry Cosgrove, a Houston meteorologist who is never considered to be a hypester. For instance, he never varied on the Dec. 25-26 inland storm track that turned out to be very close to correct.
“I foresee the potential for cyclogenesis near Galveston TX, with a grinding, deepening storm moving into GA, then turning northward very close to the Atlantic shoreline from the Carolinas into ME and NS. The timing on this matter is up for grabs, but January 17 – 22 should fit the bill for now. Because of the vivid -NAO signal on the ECMWF and GGEM ensemble packages (remember that a concurrent -EPO ridge complex looks to be in place over or near Alaska), the potential exists for the incoming disturbance to interact or possibly phase with the cAk motherlode.”
cAk is shorthand for an intense Arctic cold air mass.
Anything that far out is always at least somewhat speculative, but I know many of you will find it interesting. His latest newsletter is linked below.
http://www.examiner.com/article/weatheramerica-newsletter-saturday-january-5-2013-at-7-30-p-m-ct-part-2
Oh OK, I read Doug’s comment about his beloved dog and failed to remember the CD towards the end. I understand the acronym now. Can’t believe I didn’t get it! God bless! Anyway, I guess the weather is going to be blow torched next week. I heard somewhere it may hit 70 before all is said and done. I guess if it’s not going to snow, it doesn’t matter anyway. Prayers for Jared and that he stays clear of any Burger King in the next 10 days or so!
More TYVMs. Randy O. I would like to see that, but I would appreciate it if you could wait until Monday late afternoon or so. Or at least until tomorrow night.
Starting to rain here. It sounds a bit like “slizzle (sleet drizzle),” but our usually reliable thermometer claims that it is 41* outside, so I guess that it is rain.
He is you friend , your partner, your defender , your dog. You are his life, his love, his leader. He will be yours faithful and true to the last beat of his heart. (Unknown) Mr Griggs hopefully this helps you as much as it has helped me.
I will probably eat these words, but I am telling all of you, that there will be some kind of BIG winter precip event with severely brutal cold on Monday, January 21st. That day will be the 28th anniversary of the coldest day (in many locations) in Virginia history. Both days involved the re-election inauguration of an incumbent president (Reagan in 1985, Obama now). History will sort of repeat itself. Same day of the week, too.
Sorry to hear the news, Doug. My condolences.
Kevin of all the people who write about weather,Mr Cosgrove is very even keel and one I try to read every day. He is known to comment on DTs page from time to time and the paper he writes for also owns Allen Huffmans paper as well I believe. Walked up the Mtn today and still a few patches of snow left not many though. Good day to work outside cutting up fallen trees from ice storm. In reading above please note ,you Kevin would be in a similar category to Mr. Cosgrove
Mr Griggs sorry you are faster than my I- pad please forgive
I hope you are correct Doug! I am sooooo ready for a big snow!! If not a big un’, I’ll settle for a moderate un’…lol…of at least 6-inches! First, we must contend with a January heat wave!
Doug, I’m very sorry for the loss. But at least you have a community in the weather blog to make you feel better!
Joe, that is one huge icicle!
Another infrequent poster here. We have a bit of sleet here in Blacksburg. Drove up from Ironto and noticed the “rain” started hitting the car a bit harder coming up through Deercroft into Blacksburg. I also heard it tapping on the windows a little while ago.
C, D.
I think the window on that “January heat wave” may be shrinking. We hold onto seasonable cold til Tuesday, a rain system interferes with first part of wamup late this coming week, then probably only like 4-5 days of really unseasonable warmth (falling across a weekend, to maximize outdoor enjoyment of it, for those so inclined).
Randy: Appreciate the comparison. Cosgrove’s grasp of meteorology far exceeds mine. Hope to be similar in eve keeled department though.
Sorry for your loss Doug….
SORRY, but yet another NON-WEATHER comment. Ladies, you are going to love the following: I notice that an awful lot of the condolences are coming from women tonight, as well as quite a few men. Observation from my many years: I consider women in general to be the better gender. One of the biggest reasons? They are the care-givers and the gender that is much more in tune with their emotions, especially sympathy. Yes, women do have faults more in some areas than men (IMHO), but let’s not go there tonight. We donate to St. Francis of Assisi organization, that trains dogs for the handicapped I believe. I saw a picture recently of the dozen or so volunteers. Nearly every one of them was a woman. Same I think for the Roanoke ASPCA. Then there is or was that Roanoke rescue outfit that rehabilitates wild animals that have become injured. Same thing, run by a woman.
When I go to Garst Mill Park, one of Blondie’s “dog parks,” (no, it really is not just a dog park, but it is a dog park to this family), the vast majority of folks walking their dog(s) is women.
I am really touched by hearing from a few folks who have never commented here before. Very touched.
Yes, Nickster, your comment about the blog community is 100% correct!! And TYVM.
CD We’ll all miss Blondie Boy.
Finally updated QWC with new blog.
The more days that pass the more you’ll remember your precious pup in his heyday! CD
See the re-entry of winter may be coming by the third weekend in Jan. We have two holidays that weekend – Friday the 18th and Monday the 20th. We are also taking our Youth to Resurrection in Gatlinburg that weekend. We will see.
Doug and Nancy, Judy and I have been where you are more than one time. I am praying for you both.
Nice write up on your blog, Captn Quags
I decided to go ahead and read the nice tribute, R.O. Very nice. I was afraid that it would be something extra smarmy, but it wasn’t. I would add one more thing about Blondie in addition to being friend, defender, etc. My playmate!! I used to tease the living daylights out of him (in a nice way, not mean), and he loved it.
I am looking at NEXRAD (wunderground) radar right now, and am seeing four, maybe five different colors in Campbell County (which is just east of Bedford County). Blue for snow, green-yellow-tiny bit of orange for differing levels/intensities of rain, and maybe even a dot of imbedded white inside the blue for a somewhat more intense level of snow. I have seen 5 different colors in the same county before, but not 3 for rain and 2 for snow. WEIRDO!!
I have a friend reporting sleet in Waynesboro, VA at 9:30 PM.
I for one will welcome this warmup next week.It will be easier on the heat bill.But i`m still a snow lover and can`t wait for a big snowstorm.Temp has gone up the last couple of hours.Its now 37 here.
C, D
Surface temperatures have gone up at several sites. Warm air advection from the southwest with approaching wave. Dew points are low and some dry air aloft for evaporational cooling, so probably still some sleet with next wave of moisture moving our way, entering New River Valley areas now.
C,D
I dread the day our 14 year old tripod (3 legged) pup passes. She’s already outlasted the vet’s “forecast”. It’s gonna tear the whole family up, particularly my 11 year old boy – the dog he’s grown up with. Time will help ease the pain but don’t let it fade the memories.
I hope your right about the “BIG winter precip event” but wrong about the day…the 21st is MLK day….a day off already for some… I’m sure the TWLS would love for it to happen on the 22nd and turn it into a 4 day weekend!
Dark maroon symbolizing tstorms on weather channel radar.. What???
Sleeting at the Chapel tonight. Goodnight all!
C, D… There has been a mix of rain and sleet in Salem a couple of times tonight and was mostly sleet around 8pm.
Have had snow/sleet/rain mix light for about 3 hours across Carroll County. No accumulation, but definitely a mix of all three precip types.
Doug I am a daily reader of this blog but not a poster. First I offer my condolences and will be keeping you and Nancy in my thoughts. Second, as a TWLS I do hope your thoughts of snow for the 21st becomes reality. I would really like to see some snow even if we already have the day off.
Thanks for all the condolences, folks!! I am a LOT calmer now.
Kevin, you have mentioned here a few times that there is often (not always) an inverse relationship between how cold (or relatively warm) it is in Alaska and what the temps are doing in the eastern USA.
Well, is there any sort of teleconnection when the island of Maui is suffering from huge winds in early January, and not from a tropical system?? The PGA season was supposed to start yesterday at Kapalua on the NW side of Maui, but Mother Nature did a Black Knight impersonation (from the wacky movie M Python and the Holy Grail) and said “NONE SHALL PASS.” Or rather, “NONE SHALL GOLF.” Both yesterday’s and today’s (Saturday’s) rounds were canceled because of the extremely high winds. From my 50 years of being a goofer and fan of televised goof, I cannot remember when two straight rounds have been canceled like that before. Nearly always the weather at Kapalua tournament (it is played every year) is fabulous.
C,D.. I started following this blog in late 2009 and have never commented but I am always here and visit multiple times a day… especially in the winter!
Hey Doug…as the only vet on the blog (that I know of) I wish you the best…losing your best friend is tough,and I respect people who care as much as you do as well as those who have been there before. It is a tough thing for me to do but I know that it helps people to make the right decision…
I’m not going to get around to putting up a new post until Sunday night sometime.
Great to see the Weather Journal community support Doug tonight.
Son and wife sleeping beside me on the couch. We all need to go to bed. Good night.
We had a quick touch of sleet and rain mixed at our house…nothing major, barely even measurable precipitation total of 0.01″, plus, it was still hovering near 40 degrees anyway.
C, D. Yesterday afternoon I noticed a persistent sundog above Bburg…I now believe there had to be some symbolism in that, Doug.
NWS reports that Doppler is down with “pedestal” issues. That might account for the odd images reported yesterday.
My gauge shows 0.01″ for Sat. and Sun. Not exactly a drought buster.
C,D
C D. I am getting excited about this historic cold/historic snow storm coming mid January. By the way, 17 years ago this weekend…….
Read the comments about Larry Cosgrove and wondered how folks felt about his take on the upcoming weather. Good to read that he seems to know his stuff. I agree it seems a too far out but something to keep in the back of our heads.
As a member of TWLS (Those Who Love Snow)of (Teachers Who Love Snow) – a good snow (at least 6 inches) would be wonderful. No more ice storms for me this season – please!
Missing the blond boy again, of course. But every time I start to get sad, I am trying to remember the dog of 10 years ago, the “Jumpy Wiggler, the Captain Eek.” It helps. 37* here and occasional sun.
I am very glad that you checked in, clarkdocvet. Check your e-mails, please, over the next day or two.
Sorry for your loss Mr.Griggs
17 years ago this weekend, Mike — I was in my mid 20s getting 1 1/2 inches of snow in Arkansas with one disturbance diving southeast toward the phasing that created the big East Coast snowstorm that dumped 2-3 feet in much of central/western Virginia.
I posted an update but will not change out the thread to sometime this evening.
Will add this: The European model’s tracking of the North Atlantic Oscillation, take from Allan Huffman’s models site:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zecmwfnao.gif
Deeply, deeply negative NAO in 7-10 days per the 0Z Euro. Shows up visually on the forecast atmospheric heights map as the growing yellow are just east of Greenland. (And what will happen to that upper low, the little circle of blue off the California coast, beyond this time frame … hmmmm)
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro500mbHGHTNH240.gif
Didn’t get enough moisture to wet a dish rag…..(saturday night/sunday morning)….
Sorry about Goldie, Doug. Pets really become big members of the family sometimes and when they leave this world it is tough.
Looks like the (FCX) Doppler is on the fritz. Running over to give it a kick and see if that works.
Thanks, Gavin (and yet still more of you for your kind wishes!!). Approx what time was the sundog happening? We allowed the blond guy to find peace at 4:45 pm.
Talk about an OUTSTANDING forecast for the Polar Vortex!!! On Saturday the 29th, in his thread that was entitled “A Few Winter Scenes …”, Kevin showed the 12Z European model forecast of what the Polar Vortex would look like yesterday. Well, I am looking at the actual map: raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro500mbHGHTNH000.gif Incredibly similar. If anything, the actual vortex is a bit brighter (more intense, right?) that the outlook map. I wonder what the temps are like now in Ontario and Quebec. And if there is a storm happening anywhere up there right now …
Link did not work. Maybe Kevin or someone else can get to it and do the link thing.
Kevin beat me to it again.
Sunday morning blog update at QWC. Nothing really new but just verifications of what has been said with new data.
I’ll be away for a few days in the wild blue til Wednesday PM. If anything significant occurs, I’m Kevin or someone will let ya know.
later!
I am looking at the CPC “AO-NAO-PNA” page, then clicked on the NAO outlooks. Except for the 14-day outlook map — which NEWx has accurately pointed out as being not very reliable — the GFS NAO graphs are not really on board yet for a big negative decline through the 16th. I find that strange. Here is hopefully the link to today’s GFS NAO outlooks page: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml
But there is one particular model among the ensembles which IS predicting the enormous decline, and a few others that take the NAO to -1. Don’t know which one is showing the decline to -2.5, unless it is the same Euro one that Allen Huffman is using. Check out the red spaghetti strands on the right end of the top graph from the NAO Ensembles graph: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm.shtml
The perhaps even bigger threat/promise of a huge Arctic invasion might lie with the AO. There is quite a diversion in results on the AO ensembles graph. The GFS AO outlook is in agreement with the models that show a big nosedive in the AO starting about 10 days from now, although the biggest negative numbers are more than 10 days from now, so far from a certain thing, I guess. The GFS AO link first: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_mrf.shtml
And please notice the diversion in the red spaghetti strands on the top graph of the link for the AO Ensemble: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml Two models take the AO all the way to -4 at the right edge of the graph on January 20th, and one goes deep sea diving to -6!!! If that model were to verify, we would have many locations in the eastern US with temps rivaling exactly 28 years ago (1-21-85), in my opinion. A few weeks ago I scanned the daily history of the AO over the past 4 decades at least (talk about a strain on the eyes ….), and -6 readings were extremely rare.
One little typo got me for the AO ensembles …. grrr; one more time for the studio audience. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml
Oh, one other thing. 5 (actually a bit more than 5) weeks down, 11 weeks to go. I take winter through the first 3 weeks of March, just like astronomical winter. By the way, Kevin, your snow meter job/prediction may be incredibly easy two weeks from now. Only for big snowflake numbers, not small ones.
Churchill, Manitoba, on the western edge of Hudson’s Bay: Temp now is -8 F. Following numbers are from wunderground. Today’s high? 3. The last time it will be a positive num for the entire 10-day forecast outlook. Listings that follow are for the “morning” low and daily high. I put “morning”in parentheses because I bet they have very little daylight this time of year.
Monday: -15/-11. Then -24/-4 (the only other reading warmer than -13!!) for Tuesday. Then -20/-13; -31/-17; -18/-15; -42 (on Saturday morning)/-13; -22/-18.
Gavin, what site did you find that gave a reason for radar being down? I’d like to have bookmarked.I found a site that gives the status of Noaa weather radio.
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/nwr/stations.php?State=VA
If the next 2+ weeks DO have a big Arctic outbreak like 1985 did, it does not ensure a snowy winter {ALTHOUGH IT WOULD CERTAINLY MAKE A SNOWY WINTER MORE LIKELY}. From the link that Kevin had here a few days ago, I went back and looked at how much snow fell in Roanoke for the 1984-85 winter. Only 6.0 inches. I was shocked. One of the culprits may have been the NAO. It turned very negative in early January before the 1-21-85 megafreeze, and stayed quite negative sometimes through Feb 16, but then went positive for the remainder. And probably the southern jet was missing in action, also.
There was almost identical timing for the AO also. Stayed negative for all of January 1985 and for the first half of February (and at extreme negative levels for much of that time), and then probably/maybe winter ended rather abruptly around here.
Looks like Mon. 14th gets the cuppie doll according to wunderground. 40% chance of rain and 72*.
FYI -
MESSAGE DATE: JAN 06 2013 06:12:00
KFCX WSR-88D INOPERABLE AS OF 0530Z…01/06/13. RADAR OUT OF SERVICE
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
I guess that my kick wasn’t strong enough and I think I am all out of the parts that they need.
Looked like we were headed to about 10 days of much above normal temps just a few days ago. Now, it looks like Wednesday is mild (50s-low 60s), Thursday and Friday get a chilly, drizzly, showery wedge with lots of 40s, then Saturday-Monday are warm with highs 60-low 70s. Warm spell may only really be 4-5 days, divided in 2 parts. Colder pattern, for now, looks to start building back about 16th/17th or so, but if there is an extreme Arctic motherlode cascading over us, it’s probably 5-10 days later.
Not to worry about the dopp. Charleston and Raleigh cover us just as well.
At 3:34 PM- 52.2*
At 4:00 PM- 43.9*
Doug, I first noticed a sundog around 1 or 2, but remember noticing it again some time later in the afternoon.
WD, they put equipment malfunctions at the end of the “Area forecast discussion” which I access from Weather Underground’s site at http://m.wund.com/auto/mobile/DisplayDisc.asp?DiscussionCode=RNK&StateCode=VA&SafeCityName=Blacksburg
I often get a chuckle on that page. The NWS staff write it with lots of abbreviations that a computer expands into English. Its logic creates a movie star name from Virginia’s highest point — Montana Rogers!! The forecasters initials notate which part of the report they wrote. One has initials ‘ams’, which becomes ‘air mass’!
Hey,Doug,I’ll be checking my box…glad not too cold in Woodlawn,35*, cuz got home a while ago from Charlotte,and my upstairs heat pump is out!! Boy do I miss the ‘ole wood stove…
Good luck tonight to your Arkansas State Red Wolves, Kevin. They play in a college football bowl in Mobile, Alabama.
I hope that I can play golf Wednesday afternoon. Haven’t played 18 holes in a long time.
Glad to hear the ten days of above normal temps have now been reduced to 4-5. I am a snow lover….. and hope for a big dose of it soon!
With the Flu being widespread… we need a good cold snowy stretch to kill the germs! Thanks for all you do 
Will be watching the Red Wolves on ESPN in the GoDaddy.com Bowl in a couple of hours, Doug. We’re the training ground for SEC coaches right now — our last 2 have gone to Ole Miss and Auburn after just 1 year.
Will try to get a blog entry up before then.
When trying to decide how much weight to give an extended forecast for the AO / NAO…keep these recent examples in mind…
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ssaha/indices/ncep/20121214/nao.20121214.gif
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ssaha/indices/ncep/20121219/nao.20121219.gif
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ssaha/indices/ncep/20121221/nao.20121221.gif
Tank / No tank…
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ssaha/indices/ncep/20121230/nao.20121230.gif
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ssaha/indices/ncep/20121231/nao.20121231.gif
These forecasts are…at best…good for about seven days.