Arctic blast continues a wintry period that may last weeks
Sometime during the day Sunday, the Arctic front arrives. But it won’t seem like that big of a deal. Downsloping winds may even help temperatures rise into the 50s east of Roanoke, with 40s most other places. It’s only the beginning, though. The core of the Arctic air that is pouring into the Dakotas tonight doesn’t arrive until late Monday into Tuesday. With lingering snowpack a significant factor especially west and southwest of Roanoke (plenty of snow left where I live just outside Roanoke, too) there may well be some single digits and even a few negative numbers around the region by Wednesday morning. It doesn’t look like we’ll calm the winds down long enough for that perfect radiational cooling night that could send temperatures plummeting regionwide. Northwesterly upslope flow over the mountains and a few disturbances squirting through may scatter some snow showers, though it looks like most of it will be weak and stay mostly in West Virginia.
Late week, a low-pressure system develops in the central U.S. and moves in some manner toward the Eastern U.S. Forecast models have come up with multiple scenarios already, but there is a significant chance moisture will get spread into lingering Arctic air for some kind of wintry precipitation for some period of time. That’s about as specific as it can get right now, so this will become our system of the week to monitor. The shot of Arctic air that follows it may be even colder than what we see in the middle of this week.
There are numerous indications on long-range guidance that Southwest Virginia is entering a period that may last 2-3 weeks or more when there will be occasional shots of Arctic air and a few winter storm threats. That doesn’t mean every day will be cold or that every “threat” will materialize into snow. But winter is upon us.
January 19, 2013 - 11:19 PM
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I plan on getting some rest and disconnecting from the blog a bit on Sunday. I will post comments from time to time. Another interesting winter weather week ahead.
Jared, you may want to ensure that you are sitting down when you read this, because you may be shocked. But I am rooting for you to get a decent 4+-inch snowstorm soon. Good luck, guy.
My concern with the next storm is ice.
Certainly within the realm of possibility, Brandon. Though I would think at this point it would more likely to be mix, or snow to sleet, than pure ice.
Finally have power back! I’ve been meaning to comment for 2 days on this event.
At my house in the Ellett Valley, I recorded 5.3 inches of snow on the ol’ mailbox. Amazing though that Blacksburg, literally 5 minutes west of where I live but 500 ft higher elevation got 7.2 inches. Have a friend who lives in Peterstown, WVa, who got 12.5 inches.
What I found amazing was the sheer intensity of the snow and the heaviness of it. Also, it was a very rapid transition period from rain to snow. It was cool to see it live. Kevin, awesome video of the time lapses you posted on the last post! Thanks for that!
Also, another weird thing was the stark temperature changes on nearly similar latitudes/regions. My eyes nearly popped out of my head when I saw Charleston, SC, and Wilmington, NC at 78 on the afternoon of the storm! Meanwhile, Raleigh, NC, was at 50, and Birmingham, AL, was at 36. Incredible!!
Bring on the clipper system and next week’s storm and cold outbreak. I’m ready for more snow! I would really like to get to average or above average this year for snow! And the drought seems to be mostly eradicated in the area, but Kevin, could you please post the latest drought monitor map? That would be great!
Despite losing power for 2 days, I still think snow is fantastic! Certainly was better than losing power for 6 days after the derecho! Oh those horrible sweaty miserable stifling summer nights…
I’m curious…how much snow did Richmond and Raleigh receive?
Also, Doug and Captain Quagmire, I’m interested in hearing your snowfall totals from your respective positions of SW Roanoke (correct Doug?) and Goochland.
And Kevin, excellent radio appearance, as always, on NPR on Friday…when I had no power during that stretch, it was good to listen to what you had to say about the weather.
The wind has really started rattling the house the last few minutes here in the Coyner Springs area
What is going on with temps…here in Goodview it’s 30.3…at my dad’s place in Jordantown it was 25.8 at midnight…in the last 30 minutes it’s gone up 11 degrees..currently 40.4 at 2:40am
Ok…gotta hit the sack..but this is crazy. Dad lives 5 miles north..he is now at 45.0 with winds averaging over 10mph…humidity 50%…I’m at 30.6…no wind…91% humidity. Did the Santa Ana winds move to Va???
I got a kick out of the mention of snow in Florida in 77 in the last thread. I was a child, living just north of Tampa that year. I can remember the awesome excitement of waking up that morning and seeing snow falling out the window! Yes, I’d be awful disappointed in that small amount of snow now but I was thrilled then!
Holding my fingers crossed for more snow this weekend.
Nick, Quags said he had 4.5 inches in Goochland. That’s what blew me out of the water, we usually migrate that way to play golf this time of year because its so much warmer there. Well, somehow it was cold enough for snow there, but it stayed rain here in Greene the whole time and never got below 35. I understand the whole east and west side of the blue ridge thing, but don’t understand how it was colder southeast of us! I was like huh, what this isn’t fair! LOL
I did not expect to wake up to 43 degrees. Should the temp start falling through the day, or will it be tonight?
Reporting live from Lake Tahoe on the Nevada side, it’s another bluebird morning here at 21 degrees with a long day of skiing ahead. Conditions are awesome. Will try to post photos on QWC later this week of the trip.
Nick…4.5″ in eastern Goochland County was our total.
Well off for some lumberjack blueberry pancakes and imported Surry Virginia Bacon for the gang’s breakfast. Picked a great week to come out west.
This the one you’re lookin for Nick?
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
Nick, great to hear that you got the ol’ juice back on. I measured exactly 5 inches about 6 PM or so, but it was still coming down fairly hard. Later went out about 8:30 after it had just about ended (lonely snowflakes), and it was still 5 inches. But I could hear my drainpipes “running.” Snow was melting, even though the temp was only 34 or so. Later I talked with another blogger and he said that he too had melting going on during the early evening, that he had lost about 1/2 to 1 inch to compacting/melting. So maybe I actually got 5.5 inches.
I think El Capitan Quagmire is out of town for quite a while. I think he commented here that he got within an inch of 4 inches, maybe 4.5. He lives in Louisa County, well east of Charlottesville.
Brian of Goodview, your comments are up here now. I am guessing that your Dad’s location got affected by westerly winds blowing warm air down from the Blue Ridge, and they had not reached your house yet. I know that RRA gets that effect from west winds blowing warm air down from Brushy and Fort Lewis Mountain sometimes. Just a guess. I hope that Kevin or some other weather expert replies.
Nick (comment 6) Richmond picked up between 2 and 3 inches generally. It had mostly melted during the day friday thanks to a still warm ground and bright sun.
I have the AEP outage listing open on another window. They just updated their totals at 11:07 AM, and the great news is that they have made a LOT of progress. Virginia total customers without electricity is down to 25,900. That number is less than half of the 61K of yesterday morning.
A few customer totals around SW VA: Grayson is now the (unwanted) leader with 4150. Pulaski: 3927. Smyth: 3124. Montgomery: 2797. Giles: 2759. Wythe: big progress there, down to 2284. Carroll: 2051. Washington: 1532. Franklin: 1390. Floyd: 1157. Bland: 796. Roanoke County (Bent Mountain or Poor Mountain maybe?): 108.
The last 2 mornings, I’ve awoken to beautiful, icy trees. I live near the New River and can see the fog rising from there. The nights have been clear and really cold (10s and 20s) so I’ve been surprised to see the fog. Is it because the river is running hard and fast from the rain early in the week that the fog is forming? And I assume the moisture in the air from the fog is what’s creating the ice?
Very interesting to see how fast the snow accumulated Thursday, given that a) the ground was not and had not for some time been near freezing, and b) the temperature did not fall below freezing until well after the snow ended. Don’t see that very often, particularly on pavement. We had 33-34 throughout the ice-snow portion of the storm (Blacksburg el. 2100).
Kevin – a question. I see you (and others) reference the snowpack and its effect on colder temperatures. Does this occur even after the air temperature drops below 32? Intuitively it would seem snowpack would influence air temp only until it drops to freezing, but not further.
Thanks for a great blog.
This is in response to 1977 as well..but especially
as it regards the last week in January.
And yes this is a tease much like a Jaws movie trailer.
There very well could be a large swath of moisture
much larger than this last one approaching the east coast..
and it will be preceeded by deep cold air.
Watch for the timeframe beginning about 27-28 Jan.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blizzard_of_1977
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blizzard_of_1977
Can anyone out there beat January 20th for the earliest Robin sighting? I think they’re about to be sorry they came back so soon.
A lot of the Robins probably didn’t go anywhere..
at least not too distant…since it hasnt been a harsh
winter thus far.
http://www.allaboutbirds.org/guide/American_Robin/lifehistory
Clarkdocvet: I saw your comment yesterday about the GA power crews telling you that they never let pine trees grow so close to the lines down there and therefore they prevent widespread outages like we get. I have lost my power at least 3-4 times a year for the last 15 years or more and I live in the City of Roanoke. I have had crews from Tennessee, Kentucky and North Carolina in my backyard at one time or another. Every crew has told me the same thing you were told. Obviously, AEP has preventative maintenance issues and we bear the brunt every time bad weather happens.
No snowpack here in Bonsack…all but gone now thanks to warm days into the 50s and plenty of sun.
Joe,
Is your “about Jan. 27-28 tease” different than the Jan. 25 “possible tease” for this area? Like some women, Mother Nature can be quite a tease.
Great, great link, joe. TYVM. I cannot find anything yet via google searches to prove it, but I am fairly sure that the Buffalo Sabres hockey team had to play all of their February games on the road that season. It was either then or 1979.
I googled Buffalo Sabres February 1977, and found a few pages from a book entitled “White Death: Blizzard of ’77.” The play-by-play announcer (Ted Darling) for the Sabres lived in a town 16 miles north of the city. On Friday 1-28-77, he was supposed to drive to Buffalo airport to get a flight with team to Montreal. No dice. He left his house at noon and was only able to go 3 blocks, was able to get back home. “Visibility was about 12 inches and my windshield was blocked.” He had seen dozens and dozens of snowstorms in his life because he previously lived in Kingston, Ontario (On US border east of Toronto), Watertown, NY, and Ottawa, Ontario, but nothing he had ever seen before rivaled that late January blizzard.
Forecast models today favoring a more northerly track for the low late this week. Not good if you’re a snow lover in SW Virginia. Also somewhat increases our ice risk, though it may well end up as a cold rain in many areas — IF these models are close I’m not convinced at this point Friday’s situation will be a big precipitation maker of any kind. Some indication we get in the gap between two systems, sorta like that Friday/Saturday after Christmas winter tease.
Yes Tayree,,,
High dew points because of all the moisture
you had prior to and including the snow
will create freezing fog as u have seen.
It creates very pretty scenery on thin tree twigs/limbs
and such..
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_EFlt0azsn6A/S5EmJNei9sI/AAAAAAAABJI/2Wu2riXxZZs/s400/FreezingFogBranchesRedmond_2095.jpg
Tayree: That would be “freezing fog.”
Riga: The cooling property of snow cover isn’t primarily from the temperature of the snow. It’s from preventing the ground from receiving as much solar heating during the day, and reflecting more warmth into space at night. So the cooling properties continue when the temperature is below 32 degrees. Snowpack is often the difference between a below-zero temperature situation and a single-digits situation when skies are clear and winds are calm.
I still have 4 inches of snow in my backyard and about 2 inches in my front yard south of Roanoke, shaded as I am by woods and hillside most of the day. But snow looks to be almost totally gone on the south facing hillsides that are lit up by the sun still as I type this. And driving around Roanoke revealed most of the snowpack is gone in the city, too. Ironically, we go a warm-air surge ahead of the initial cold front today, and may get another somewhat weaker one tomorrow ahead of the arrival of the true Arctic air on Monday.
Look at this forecast for Thursday and see if it looks like something the NWS would put out. Typical, and only 16*.
http://www.wunderground.com/q/zmw:54022.1.99999
Sorry about the frustration comment. Im sick of all these storms steering around us and no winter really for the last 3 years! Guess its been in Europe and Russia the last 3 years. Be nice if we can just get some sustained cold and snow here for once.
I took a noontime drive up to Bent Mountain today. Two features stood out. The visibility from the spot where Rte 221 finishes its steep, curvy climb had stupendous visibility to the east. I could even make out the former NORAD building on Apple Orchard Mountain about 50 miles from that viewpoint, and probably could see points even further away.
It was 48* at my house when I left. 50* on Roselawn Ave. and then still 50* on 221 through Poages Mill and other spots along the valley floor. Temp at Bent Mountain was 43*, and the Camry thermometer even ticked down to 41* briefly when I got on the connecting road to get to the BRP to see if it was open (it wasn’t … at least northbound). Temp back here when I returned about an hour lately …. still 48. There was more snow up there obviously than down here (my front yard is snow-free, as well as the area of the back furthest from the house), but they had lost an awful lot, too. Probably down to 3-4 inches in sunny spots.
This month may go down as one of the warmest in Roanoke’s history, unless the impending cold snap sticks around. Through yesterday the month is an eye-catching +7.8 at ROA, and +6.9 at Blacksburg. And today was warmer than normal, although I don’t know if it was a +8 to keep the average up.
I looked up what the temp and wind will be for both ROA and Hokieburg for the early morning (6-9) hours on Tuesday. From the NWS: Blacksburg, temps actually dropping from 22 to 16, with WNW winds of 14, gusting to 24. From The Weather Channel: 19* dropping to 16*, WNW winds of 19 (they never mention gusts on their hourly forecasts).
Roanoke. Per NWS: 28* dropping to 23*. Winds WNW at 15 gusting to 26. TWC: 22* drops to 21*, winds WNW at 18.
OK, Blacksburg Mike, have at them if you strongly disagree. And what say you, KM and others?
Thanks, Joe and Kevin. My freezing fog wasn’t nearly as spectacularly spiky as Joe’s photo, but smoother, more like a regular ice storm. A pretty surprise sparkling in the morning sunlight.
We still have decent snowpack here in Narrows. The ground is only showing where it’s been plowed, shoveled, or walked on or it’s been in direct sunlight all day. I’ve seen power trucks driving back and forth today so hopefully more of my Giles County neighbors will have power soon.
High temps on Tuesday in Blacksburg will remain in the teens. Any idea when the last day with a high temp below 20 was in Blacksburg? Whatever falls from the sky on Friday will certainly freeze/stick to everything. Should make for quite a day.
What a warm day.Hit 56 for a high,but now its back down to a cold 28.Gonna be a cold week.
Winter may be upon us, but it was a very pretty 61 degrees up here in C’ville today. I took a nice drive with the windows down… got some fresh air, as I know what’s coming!
Not looking forward the cold snap, but if it cools things down enough to provide some snow, unlike this last batch, I’ll deal with it.
Speaking of which, DT’s latest claim is that the projections have the coming storm going way north, with no damming feature to keep it in VA. I hope he’s as wrong as he was about CHO’s snowfall total this past week.
Returned from Gatlinburg around 4pm and power had been restored. This was surprising since many in Washington Co are still out and we are usually the last ones to get it back on. Much of our snow is gone but the north sides are all still covered. There was snow all the way to Gatlinburg but amounts dropped off dramatically after Kingsport. Met one kid while playing Laser Tag who said his family came up from FL to see the snow. It was this kid’s first time seeing snow.
Someone posted a comment here (I think, and I am not about to go hunting for it among the 1000 posts of the past 5 days) that Henry Margusity of Accuweather is expecting the golden 3-way of a + PNA and negative AO and Negative NAO. I agree with the possibility of the first two, but not a negative NAO. Take a look at the Ensemble outlook for the NAO, with only one spaghetti strand taking a dip away from the neutral area: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm.shtml The red spaghetti strands at the right edge of the top graph are the outlooks of the approximately 10 models.
That’s part of why the cold air isn’t holding in place very well, Doug. Not sufficient Greenland blocking high. Getting shots of it instead of just coming down and hanging out, at least at this latitude.
Speaking of teleconnections (or teletubbies as Doug likes to call them) the distant Madden-Julian Oscillation — tracking patterns of rain in the Indian Ocean and South Pacific — is now hanging in the phases that lean cold/stormy for the eastern U.S. The MJO has become quite a buzzword among many long-range meteorologists.
Kevin can you post a link to the US snow cover map following last Thursdays storm
?
Current snow cover, as of Sunday:
http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201301/nsm_depth_2013012005_National.jpg
And on Friday, right after the storm.
http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201301/nsm_depth_2013011805_National.jpg
Blacksburg Mike, it almost stayed in the teens on 01-03-12, when the high was 20 (the low was 15 on that day). But as far as I could tell, the most recent date that fit your Q was 12-13-10, more than 2 years ago. High/low were 19 and 10. I tried to be careful, but it is possible I missed another more recent date.
I tried earlier today to find a website anywhere that lists the reservoir levels at Carvins Cove and/or Spring Hollow reservoir in western Roanoke County, without success. I bet that each of them have risen many feet since the 13th. Does anyone out there know of a way to find out the levels of those two reservoirs (also Claytor Lake in eastern Pulaski County) with day-by-day or at least weekly levels?