Arctic shot arrives for Tuesday; leaning to wintry mix for Friday
Monday is T-minus-1 day to the Arctic blast. With sunshine, some downsloping winds and a bit of surge of milder air ahead of the arrival of the Arctic air mass (the leading edge of which arrives Monday afternoon), widespread 40s and some 50s from Roanoke south and east will again be possible on Monday. Don’t get used to it. Most likely, no one in Southwest Virginia sees the freezing mark on Tuesday, and some locations west of Roanoke may not see 20. And temperatures may even glide downward through the day. Lows by Wednesday morning in the single digits and teens are expected, but it doesn’t look like the mother-lode Arctic blast will unload on us with widespread below-zero, pipe-freezing cold. Instead, we’ll get pieces of it from time to time — Sunday is already looking like another very cold day.
Friday’s storm system continues to befuddle. The lean now based on latest guidance is toward an ice/sleet situation (some snow) changing to rain (for some) as we get in the “warm” sector (above freezing aloft, maybe reaching the surface) of the storm with a low tracking near or north of our latitude. But plenty of time to change based on the track and just how hard that Arctic air holds. I have a hard time seeing it as either an all-rain or all-snow situation for our region, just based on the likely position of the low and the preceding Arctic air.
Ice doesn’t count toward the 1-inch minimum I’m rating for (though sleet does) so I went barely on the lower half of the snow meter again. With the same four-flake rating, I knew almost as soon as it published last week that I wish I had gone higher. I don’t have the same feeling this week, but Friday could easily cobble together an inch or more of snow/sleet mix at one or both sites.
*********************
Snow meter 1/21-1/27
(0 to 10 rating of getting at least 1 inch of snow this week)
Roanoke 4 snowflakes ****
Blacksburg 4 snowflakes ****
Outlook: This week is going to turn very cold, with subfreezing highs and lows in the 5-15 range (if not colder) by Wednesday. There will be little or no precipitation through at least Wednesday, maybe a few snow showers. The latter part of the week, once again, is when things could interesting, as there are growing 
indications that a low-pressure will develop in the central U.S. and move in some manner toward the East Coast. While many details are fuzzy, and will be so for a few days yet, it is usually difficult for the depth of Arctic air arriving this week to be entirely rooted out in two or three days. It appears likely that moisture will be flung into cold air late this week, but it appears the cold air will be shallow by that point and the track of the low farther north than what is typical for snow. Wintry mix or ice may be possible before changing to rain, and while an inch of snow can’t be ruled out, I’m leaning a little against it, so only four flakes, again.
Season to date: Told you I was leery of that late-week storm system. But I wasn’t leery enough to go above four snowflakes on the snow meter. And, the rules are that if I go less than five snowflakes and it snows an inch, I take a loss. Blacksburg collected 7.2 inches and Roanoke 3.5 inches on Thursday.
Current records: 6-1 for Roanoke, 5-2 for Blacksburg.
January 21, 2013 - 12:16 AM
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Any early ideas about the amount of available moisture with the late week storm and how it will affect accumulations in the area? Will we have that charming cold air damming thing in play with it?
Doug-last thread, thanks for the research on B’burg last temp below 20. Looks like Tuesday will be the coldest day in over two years. Also, latest trends point towards more snow for Friday and less mixing issues. We shall see.
A cold 26 this morning as i leave for work.This next storm will be interesting maybe we`ll get a little snow up this way.Not looking forward to this cold air mass this week.Have a good week all.
Checking long range on weather channel and they have us in the 50s for next week. I thought next week was supposed to be just as cold if not colder?
20* here this morning,feels like the artic air is already here…
GDM: Big questions on both. Don’t think this is going to be a hugely moist system with an enormous flow of Gulf juice. Nothing like last week almost for certain. Almost certainly some level of cold air wedging, but whether that’s full-bore cold-air damming or some lingering Arctic air is still a bit uncertain.
6Z GFS would be a fairly quick-hitting, overrunning-type all-snow event Thursday night/early Friday. Notice all the green north of the blue line just south of the Virginia-North Carolina border:
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov//Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=06&image=gfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_117_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
I don’t think this is going to be a huge storm. Trends are to a weaker system. Actually, if you want a better chance at pure snow, it’s probably better that way. All the solutions with stronger lows end up getting tugged farther northward. Take your 1-4 inches of snow instead of more moisture, more warm air aloft, a more northward track on the low and mixed precipitation.
The 0Z GFS and Euro were both taking the low pretty much right directly at us. That would probably end up as snow mixing with /changing to sleet/ice at the end. Not huge amounts.
The much bigger storm appears to be developing in the southern Plains next week. Some of the early guidance wants to track that into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes, but there is some meteorological opinion out there that it takes a much more southerly track. It’s gonna be a big weather player for a big part of the country wherever it goes.
I was looking at the NWS records for lowest minimum temperature in Hokieburg since 1952. The 1980s have the record as the most lows – two were in 1982 when I was going to DePaul in Chicago where they had a record low of -27. Two were in 1970, a few weeks apart. All the these records are set in mid-to-late January with the exception of one late December date and then an early February date. So this time of year is prime time for the arctic lows. I remember in Chicago waiting to catch a bus and the bank sign on the corner read -15. It was painful even with proper clothing and I don’t know how people live in MN or Canada in the winter. As one Chicago native said to me – you are chic if you look warm – no one really cares if what you wear is stylish. According to my son’s girlfriend who now lives there, it has not really snowed there yet this winter but that may change this weekend.
Thanks joe for providing the Blizzard of 1977 link. It made me cold and anxious just reading it which simply stated the facts from that event.
From NWS Blacksburg Facebook post
How much did the snow weigh?
Let’s do some math. A cubic foot of water (a box 12″ on all sides) weighs 62.42796 pounds. Thus, one square foot of water one inch deep would be 1/12th of this amount, or 5.2 lbs. Here at the NWS office we measured about 7 inches of snow from this past winter storm. When melted it created about 7 tenths (0.7 inch) of an inch of liquid water. Since we know 1 inch of water over a square foot area weighs 5.2 pounds, then our 7 tenths of an inch of liquid weighed approximately 3.6 pounds per square foot. Depending on the size of your snow shovel, you could have been moving anywhere from 5 to 15 pounds per scoop. To put this in a little bit different light, if you cleared a driveway that was 100 feet long and 10 feet wide (1000 square feet) you would have moved about 3600 pounds of snow.
Note: This calculation will be different depending on your measured snow depth. For this particular snow event, the snow weighed about a half pound per inch of snow per unit area (square foot). To compute the weight of the snow on your driveway multiply the depth of the snow you measured by 0.5 and then multiply it by the area of your driveway in square feet. Bottom line, those “half pounds” add up to a lot!
What if we apply this same logic to the snow that has encased the clothesline? Based on the picture the snow is caked around the clothesline to a diameter of about 3 inches (radius 1.5″). This computes to an area of about 7 square inches for every inch of clothesline. If we estimate that our 3 inches of snow is equivalent to 3 tenths (0.3 inch) of an inch of liquid water, and we know that 1 inch of water weighs approximately 5.2 pounds per square foot, then our 3 inches of snow weighs about 1.5 pounds per square foot. Since a square foot has 144 square inches, this same volume can be applied to the snow encased clothesline by dividing 144 by 7 which suggests there is 1.5 pounds of snow for approximately every 20 inches of clothesline. That means for one strand of clothesline (25 feet or 300 inches long) it is estimated there is about 22.5 pounds of snow, and for all four strands of clothesline that comes out to about 90 pounds of snow!
If we apply this same infinite wisdom to power lines and trees, you quickly get the jist of how easy it is to create a mess of downed trees and power lines leading to the widespread power outages across the area. Power poles are spaced anywhere from 125 to 300 feet apart. If an average strand of wire between power poles is 200 feet apart that means this same 3 inches of snow encased around the powerline would weigh about 180 pounds or the equivalent of an average person or 18 ten pound bowling balls hanging from one segment of power line. Now that is some heavy snow!
I’ll gladly take a 2-4″ type of snow. I honestly like those smaller snows more than the bigger ones, because they make everything nice and pretty, but don’t make travel overly difficult most of the time, and, perhaps most important…they aren;t difficult to shovel. The storm last week, with the around 8:1 snow ratio, was very heavy to clear…reminded me of the 2nd February 2010 storm that brought snow, sleet, and freezing rain. It was a bear to shovel because of how dense it was. I calculated that I shoveled over 5 tons of snow last week, just at my house, because of how much water was in the snow that fell. Most of that has melted now, we still have 2-4″ in spots, but areas that are south facing are barren already.
Blacksburg Mike, you are very welcome. I am glad that you went back to the previous thread to see that.
I posted a comment late last night that I have been trying to find a website that lists the water levels at both Carvins Cove and Spring Hollow reservoirs (and also Claytor Lake and even Smith Mntn Lake, for that matter). No luck so far, despite a google search. Do any of you have an idea? I bet that both of the Roanoke valley reservoirs have come up many feet (as many as 8?) since last Sunday.
Mike in Marshall – did you get any snow showers this morning? Radar looked like it was showing some up near Leesburg and towards NoVA. Maybe with this system coming through later this week, you will get a few snow flakes.
To Bburg Mike and others: what I saw on “7″ last night with Jay Webb was a forecast model (just one of several that I guess “7″ uses??) showing 6 AM temps for SW Virginia. I just went to wdbj7.com and replayed a video (of the 6:16 PM Sunday weathercast, which must have aired on MY19), and it is obvious that the high temps for both Roanoke and Blacksburg tomorrow will happen at 12:01 AM.
Temps at midnight tonight on that forecast model are 32 for ROA, 29 for Blacksburg. The huge dropoff occurs between midnight/1AM and dawn, and temps never recover much tomorrow. So Blacksburg will not have an “official” high in the teens tomorrow, although it will almost certainly never reach 20 during daylight hours. I sometimes wish that high and low temps would run from something like 5 AM to 5AM the next early morning. Tomorrow would be one of those days when such a timeframe would be more appropriate. Go ahead, Kevin, present the alternative argument. I realize that the midnight to midnight time works well at least 90% of the time. Plus has the advantage of being in synch with the actual date.
And so much for this month being one of the warmest ever here in SW Virginia. According to not only “7,” but also the NWS, only Friday will reach 40 (maybe) here in ROA through at least Sunday. Normal high for ROA is 46 or 45 now. So at least for the high temps we will remain below normal, which will put a big dent in that warmer than normal situation for this month. Through yesterday, ROA is + 8.0 (!!), and BLACKSBURG is + 7.0 (!!)
For Bburg, only Friday is scheduled to be above 35 through Sunday.
Wind Chill information. PLEASE SKIP THIS if you don’t care about it.
From the 2013 World Almanac, pg. 334. I will just list the wind chills for every 10 degrees Fahrenheit.
When temp is 40F, if wind is 5, wind chill (“WC”) is 36. Wind 10, WC = 34. Wind 15, WC is 32. Wind 20, WC = 30. Wind 25, WC = 29.
When temp is 30. Wind of 5, WC = 25. Wind 10, WC = 21. Wind 15, WC = 19. Wind 20, WC = 17. Wind 25, WC = 16.
When temp is 20. Wind of 5, WC = 13. Wind 10, WC = 9. Wind 15, WC = 6. Wind 20, WC = 4. Wind 25, WC = 3.
When temp is 10. Wind of 5, WC = 1. Wind 10, WC = -4. Wind 15, WC = -7. Wind 20, WC = -9. Wind 25, WC = -11.
Now compare those wind chill values with a chart that I found on pg. 171 of the 1994 World Almanac. Before the WC table was changed. Each of you can decide for yourself which is more accurate/representative when the winds get to 10 MPH or more. You all know my opinion.
When the air temp is 40F. With wind of 5, WC = 39. Wind 10, WC = 28. Wind 15, WC = 23. Wind 20, WC = 19. Wind 25, WC = 15. Notice how the “subtraction factor” goes to greater than 1 degree for each mph for winds between 10 and 20, unlike the current table.
When the temp is 30. Wind 5, WC = 27. Wind 10, WC = 16. Wind 15, WC = 9. Wind 20, WC = 4. Wind 25, WC = 1.
When temp is 20. Wind 5, WC = 16. Wind 10, WC = 3. Wind 15, WC = -5. Wind 20, WC = -10. Wind 25, WC = -15.
When temp is 10. Wind 5, WC = 7. Wind 10, WC = -9. Wind 15, WC = -18. Wind 20, WC = -24. Wind 25, WC = -29!!!
Actually, Doug, dawn to dawn timeline for climate data does make more sense in many ways. Co-op stations report data at 7 a.m. and 7 p.m. But perhaps like starting seasons on the first day of months, it’s just more statistically convenient to start things at midnight and keep to regular calendar days.
12Z GFS is back to previous solutions of a more northerly track and mixed precipitation — and not a lot of it. Will continue to watch this week. I am more doubtful about this system being a signficant snow maker than last week’s.
Sorry that you had to be wrong with your snow meter for last week, Kevin, but you get high marks anyway from most of us and me for continuing to mention the chance of a Thursday snowfall, which turned out to be a good alert.
Meanwhile, does anyone out there have some maple syrup, or plenty of Splendas? A certain dogless crazy old letter carrier is having an awful time …. munch, munch …. YUCK!!! …. eating his words here of about a week ago predicting that today would have brutally cold temps. Missed it by a day, although even as cold and very chilly as tomorrow will be in most SW Virginia locations, I had even colder temps in mind.
You’re welcome Htrax..
While the forces that be gather
and decide who to punish or please..
From cold or warm to wet or dry..
here are a few tidbits,,including the Mud March
in Va..
On Jan 21…
http://www.weatherforyou.com/weather_history/
The Civil War offensive began Jan…
Then the wet..and the booze..and the
rest…maybe some fun reading while
we dry and warm our feet.
http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/mud-march-begins
Mr. Griggs, this will give you some local levels.
http://www.westernvawater.org/WebMgmt/ywbase61b.nsf/DocName/$WVWAHome
I looked on pg 2 of today’s ROA Times, and there were the reservoir or water levels for Carvins Cove, Claytor Lake, SML, plus one other. CC is down only 4 feet!!! Hooray!
Try this Mr. Griggs.
http://www.aep.com/environment/conservation/hydro/
How gusty will the winds be? I’m concerned that with all the moisture from last week the ground is pretty saturated and gusty winds could cause trees to blow over onto power lines and we’d be right back in the situation as last week as far as power outages.
How does the storm go north into the Arctic high pressure? Shouldnt it be steered more to the south?
Jared: The Arctic high is pulling east by late week. But a big part of the forecast uncertainty rides on how much influence that high still has or how much new high pressure from Canada builds in. You should be at least happy in this: The farther north you are, the better chance of having deeper cold air and staying snow longer.
Am i too far south for this one to affect me at all?
Kevin, what’s the 12Z Euro saying about Friday event?
The new Euro run has good snows for our area with the next storm.
This is why I’m not looking at the models until Wednesday. They have been all over the place with this one. And for the record, I’m not buying the Euro solution.
Years ago while still in shool, I had a professor give a 20 year history of snow days in Columbia, SC. I was suprised to see February had the most, and March had as many as January. Living here I have learned that snow is possible in December, and realistic in January, but would that same trend hold up here, Feb having the most snow, with March nearly tied for 2nd?
Thanks guys for all the info.
DT is going off again on the late week storm…12Z Euro has the system going way south giving us 4-8 inches of snow. Let’s hope the models continue to trend this way!
Jared, I know your pain. I used to live in Charlottesville (actually Earlysville). Snow was so hard to come by there as I lived about 10 miles from the Greene County line (we were still in Albemarle County – try saying Albemarle with marbles in your mouth!!!). But I’m sure you will get at least one 6 inch storm by winter’s end. Hang in there!
I also witnessed the June 2002 tornado that touched down in Greene County about 10 miles away from my house…spectacular site. Lost power for 3 days though after that…and that was right before the family moved down here to Blacksburg. It was so hot that day before the tornado and those storms that night (I think June 7) were violent.
It’s interesting too…one would think Cville would get more snow being farther north but I believe Blacksburg has a higher average for snow than Cville…and over the past 10 years, it certainly seems that way. The last 2 winters I lived in Cville were 2000-2001 and 2001-2002. Both were dry, but even then, I still received at least one 3-6 inch type storm, so Jared, don’t worry just yet! How much did you receive last year?
12z Euro. This week’s gonna be fun.
Thanks, WD, for the info about WVWA. Funny, I got to that website yesterday, but it must have somehow been a different page, because it did not have the icon for “Current reservoir levels.” Anyway, Spring Hollow is down 26 feet. Now all I want to do is find out how many feet it was down on the 13th or 14th. They are closed today, judging from the automated message when I called them.
I haven’t had a chance to see 12Z Euro myself (and probably won’t for a few hours) but I’m hearing from multiple sources it’s cold with widespread medium snow for us (think 3-6ish inches).
And Jared, I’d blame all that urbanization up the Route 29 corridor! Seminole Road has just turned into northern VA. Earlysville is nothing like it used to be! 10 years ago when I moved, around the airport there was just a nice shopping center and Wheels For Less and some other car stores/neighborhoods (Hollymead, Forest Lakes, etc.) Now, there is a huge super Target and other things (I think a Harris Teeter) and slowly but surely, it is creeping up north into Greene, Madison, Orange, and Fauquier counties. DC and Cville are starting to connect. I’m not saying it’s all bad but I don’t like the idea of total urbanization because Central VA is just so gorgeous in some parts.
But yeah Jared, there might be some heat island effect eventually in Greene combined with the drier leeward side of the Blue Ridge.
And there is news of building a Route 29 bypass starting near the airport connecting to Route 250 bypass. That is something I never thought would happen.
I spent part of yesterday at SML, and I can assure all here that SML is at almost full pond! That’s great news! It’s especially wonderful for me that my mother-in-law’s floating dock rose with the water after I had tied it off. Miracles!
Jamie Singleton said we will get down to 9-degrees Wednesday morning….I guess that translates to 30 at the Roanoke Regional Airport!! LOL
The EURO ensembles actually agree with the Euro. In fact, some of them show the system a little stronger. Now it’s getting interesting…
Kevin, do us all a favor and keep going with 4 snowflakes on the snow meter.
Here’s a link to the Euro snow totals.
https://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/19104_435639876508474_549529006_n.png
Kevin from Turkeycock..
Its far too early to split hairs on 100 miles even
on a forecast a week out…
Cold yes..ill forecast that for you..very cold..
and ill even go on a limb and say itll be overcast.
It is very funny when DT gets excited for a snowstorm now…he says WOOF! That is, unless WOOF is an acronym for something I have no idea about!
Nick of E.V., when did Jared say WOOF here? I missed that.
WOOF…Wheres Our Oversized Flakes.
Windbag
Organizing
Outragous
Forecast
lol…that’s all I could come up with for now. Gotta give it to him though, he pretty much nailed this last one.
Kevin, what are we looking at as far as timing goes for this next storm? My wife and I are taking our two girls up to Hooville for their first UVa basketball game. They are very excited (as am I) and I would hate to have to cancel the trip (and lose the $$$ I spent on tickets!)
I guess I should have specified also that it is a 1 p.m. game Saturday.
Its in the 30s over most of WVa as of 5pm EST..
20-s in the north…
You-ll be walking outdoors tomorrow with pronounced
vigor…That is if your nose goes past the screen door.
Hot Springs ..28F at 5pm
Monterey-28.6*-light snow.
Nick, funny how you use to live here, because I once lived down near you in Pembroke. How far are you from the Blacksburg Country Club? Had fun playing in the Alleghaney every year. Played out of Castle Rock most of the time however. Guess I was spoiled with snow during my years down there and now its almost impossible to even get a snowflake.
Doug, have learned not to pay attention to DT when he cries Wolf or Woof! LOL If we get snow then we get it, not really concerned about it now. Sick of wondering when or if it will snow again. LOL
DT said woof Mr. Griggs, not Jared.
Doppler Carol we did not get one snowflake this morning.No snow since Dec 27th when we had a whole 2 inches then it turned to sleet and plain rain.Yes maybe i might get a couple of flakes thursday night.Lol!
A WOOF! from DT = “Big Dog”, at least that’s what he used to use it for. I personally don’t see a “Big Dog” snow on the horizon………..but what do I know.
Being editorial as you are KM, did you mean for the title to this entry to say “leaning to”, “leaning toward”, or “leading to”? As before, not nitpicking, it’s just that grammar really sticks out when I read something. I’m definitely not perfect…. and oh yeah…. this post is sorta off topic.
Thanx joe maybe can get a little more snow this week…last one was good so cant complain.
In Chicago tonight currently 9 degrees on the way to 0 for the morning. No snow here but saw it south in Indiana flying in.
Current temps Hot Springs-Ingalls 27,Monterey 26.2 Covington Dressler Estates-36.6 Marshall-34 Fredericksburg-50 Manassas-39 Slowly dropping everywhere.I think winter is finally here!
Winds are howling here temp is goung down quick
Had the day off for Martin Luther King Day. Slept late to get over my trip to the Smokies. Went out and fed the cattle and then worked in wood for a while. Brought in enough on my porch for several days and split some to fit in the cookstove. Have a fire in both stoves tonight and will keep both burning for a couple days to keep house good and warm during the arctic chill. Will also put in some extra if it looks like Thurs and Fri brings snow and ice. Our NWS forecast is for snow Thurs night and sleet, snow, freezing rain and rain on Fri with return to snow on Fri Nite. Just hoping we do not lose power again in the next storm. It tends to be fun with the generator for 24 hrs and then the fun wears off.
Oh yeah, wd, …… it would help if I read the comment more carefully about who said WOOF. Maybe DT is paying a bit of homage to that song about who let the big dog out.
To Johnny near KHLX: What do you know? Sometimes more than what some meteorlgsts and models say. LOL You are another person whose comments I always enjoy reading. Please keep them coming.
BTW, the cold front has definitely come through, it FEELS like. Winds are at least 15 mph I think when I met Nancy for a gas fill-up, then another kind of “gas fill-up” at a restaurant. I wonder if the temps will tumble by a full 30 degrees by my commute time. It was still 46 as I was driving home about 6:30.
Some Roanoke highs and lows from …. well, I will reveal the year later.
Jan. 12th, high/low of 38/16, with maximum wind gust (“MWG”) at RRA of 24.
Jan. 17th: 29/17 (very close to tomorrow’s?), MWG of 37.
Jan. 18th: 27/8, MWG of 20.
Jan. 19th: 39/20, but a MWG of 39.
Jan. 22nd: 33/19, MWG of 25.
Jan. 23rd: 19/11, MWG of 37!!
Jan. 24th: 29/13, MWG of 36.
Jan. 27th: 26/10. MWG of 25.
The year was 2003, the winter of lots of snowfalls, but no biggies in Roanoke city. Despite all those cold days, the month was only 2.7* colder than normal. 5 days were at least +10s, with a high of 62 on the 1st, 61 on the 8th, and 64 on the 9th. The 1st and 9th were +20s. So tomorrow and Wednesday will be the 10-year anniversaries of two very cold days in the past.
The snowfall totals were missing for Roanoke in 2003 on the web page that I looked at, but Blacksburg had info on that. A really strange winter. The biggest snowfall was in spring, regardless of whether a person uses meteor’l or astronmicl spring, because it was 8 inches on March 30th. The 2nd biggest snowfall at Hokieburg was on December 4th, (2002) 7.0 inches.
Gonna get “hot” next week.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif
Brace yourselves…the cold is coming. It was 41* here when we got home from work around 5:25. Went outside to blanket the horses and give them a fresh round bale and the temp has since dropped to 35*. The wind is howling, seemingly from all different directions, and what is left of our 12.5″ snowfall is quite crunchy. Forecast low here tonight (per TWC) is 7*. I gotta say I much prefer 31* and dinner plate sized snowflakes to 7* and wind. Both beat an ice storm.
AEP has made tremendous progress, but as of 7:59 PM (00:59 GMT), there are still 2475 Virginia customers without power. Almost 1600 in Grayson County, 455 in Carroll County. 276 in Pulaski. The others in Giles.
Yes Doug, DT is the one saying “WOOF!” Jared, I play at Castlerock often. I’m literally right beside the country club. Have played there a few times. Very nice as well.
Updates on temps around the state Hot Springs-Ingalls-21,Monterey-22.5,Marlinton W Va-22.6,Winchestor-28,Marshall-29,Leesburg-31,Lexington-35,Manassas-36,Warrenton-36,Culpeper-37,Roanoke-39,Fredericksburg-44,Newport News-49.Its dropping Quick tonight.Will keep reporting until i crash!Covington Dressler Estates-33.5.Sorry Missed one.
Matt: “Leaning toward” would actually be more correct.
Sorry folks I haven’t been able to be on much today. Hope to post a new entry by late tonight … or early Tuesday at the latest.
Hey Rick, I thought DT was saying it would be cold and stormy next week? Or was it going to get a little warm, and then cold the first week of February? I’m confused now! I thought it was supposed to be frigid again after Sunday!
Rick in Wytheville I`ll take that warm weather anytime even though i`m a snow lover by heart.Felt great this past weekend Saturday was 52,Sunday was 56.Now down to 28 here in Marshall.
Love it, Rick, love it (about the 6-10 day forecast). But not that it matters for me. I am “outta here” sometime during this weekend, don’t have to work after this Thursday until Tuesday, FEB 5th. My first midwinter vacation since 1996. I am probably going to drive to the Saint Augustine area of Florida. And “goof around,” as good ol’ wdbrand would say.
Maybe with the Chairman of the Snow Haters not here in SW Virginia, you snow lovers can get another snowstorm or two in here. LOL
Nick, DT said there would be a brief warm up next week likely followed by a very cold and possibly stormy first 2 weeks of February.
Temp in DC dropped from 45 to 35 in just a couple hours. A cold NW wind is blowing too.
Goodbye Inauguratioin tourists!
Well the cold IS on its way. It was almost balmy today with the sun out, in the mid-40s and I did not wear a coat out (only scarf and gloves). Had dinner out this evening with a friend and wow, when leaving the wind had kicked up and the chill is setting in. First day of spring semester classes at VT Tuesday – students crossing the Drillfield in the wind and freezing temps will be sharing that rite of passage with all Hokie alumni.
Man,the wind really kicked up in the past hour or so…25 mph gusts …temp now 27*. In for a cold one here tomorrow I bet…
One last update before i retire for the night.Hot Springs-Ingalls-16,Monterey-19.6,Marlinton Wva-18,Winchester-25,Marshall-26,Wytheville-26,Covington-Dressler Estates-28.5,Leesburg-29,Warrenton-29,Manassas-30,Lexington-30,Culpeper-31,Roanoke-34,Fredericksburg-38,Newport News-47.Will update in the morning,i`m gonna crash for the night.
Newest run of the GFS takes the low way north and west of Chicago.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/list_files_area.php?model=gfs&cycle=00&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip
That’s because the model is reading it almost like an Alberta clipper. Actually slides loosely organized low eastward and pulls decent moisture into cold air here on subsequent frames.