A few flakes in windy cold this morning; a few inches possible Friday
UPDATE 8:30 AM: A few flurries are zipping by through the Arctic cold-reinforcing winds this morning, gusting over 40 mph at times in higher elevations. Some parts of Virginia north of I-64 got 1-4 inches overnight from the quick-moving Alberta clipper-type disturbance. We still look to be on track for a few hours of light-moderate snow on Friday. Will update on that this evening. END UPDATE
UPDATE 12 MIDNIGHT, 1/23: Most of the light snow has stayed north of I-64 through late Wednesday evening, but some bands are shifting southward in West Virginia, and may drift as far south as the Roanoke and New River valleys in the morning hours. Minor accumulations, if any, are expected. Forecast guidance from Wednesday night is split on whether Friday’ s storm system looks to be more moist than earlier projected, so I’ll hold with ideas below on snow accumulations awaiting more data. END UPDATE
We’ve been bantering quite a bit about the potential for snow on Friday … and there’s actually a system diving southeast tonight that might leave a coating of white on some parts of western and central Virginia. The best chances of light accumulation of snow overnight will generally be north of the U.S. 460 corridor (Bluefield-Blacksburg-Roanoke-Bedford-Lynchburg), but continued upslope snow showers (northwest winds blowing up and over the Appalachian slopes, creating lift that condenses moisture into clouds and snow) may continue some squalls into the morning even into more of Southwest Virginia to the south of U.S. 460. Don’t be surprised if you see some flakes or even a skiff of white, probably not more than an inch for anyone. Beware traveling in the morning in case there are patches of snow on roads, especially north and west of Roanoke. As cold as it’s been, almost everything will stick. The National Weather Service in Blacksburg is projecting a dusting to half an inch possible overnight and early Thursday along/west of the Blue Ridge and along-north of U.S. 460.
The potential for significant snow on Friday has continued to tick upward, as it appears, at least for now, there will be sufficient moisture to overcome extremely dry air to reach the surface for a period of time as a low-pressure system moves eastward toward our entrenched Arctic air. My best guess now: 2 inches for Roanoke, 3 inches for the Blacksburg-Christiansburg area, 1-2 inches east of the Blue Ridge and Roanoke Valley; 2-5 inches along the Blue Ridge south of Roanoke (think Floyd County to Galax and Fancy Gap), through the New River Valley and points west and southwest; and 1-3 inches north of the Roanoke and New River valleys to the I-64 corridor, and perhaps beyond. There may be a few locally heavier amounts, but Friday’s system is likely to provide a fairly even distribution of snowfall amounts, and not likely to produce small bands of much heavier snow, as some systems do. It will move through fairly quickly, moving into our region by mid to late Friday morning and out by mid-evening Friday, with continuing upslope snows behind it west of I-81/I-77 corridors into Saturday morning.
Many locations in our region will stay below freezing through Sunday and won’t see 40 til Monday, with a warmup next week reaching the 50s by midweek.
January 23, 2013 - 5:44 PM
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Looking at the national radar http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php
you can see where that clipper has a bead on Pocohontas County and Snowshoe’s webcam will confirm it: http://www.resortcams.com/webcameras-snowshoe-shavers-centre.php
I don’t know about the rest of you wood chunkers, but it was an ongoing proposition today to get my basement up to 75*. And when the clouds moved in this afternoon, it fell a little. Wife turned the heat on and it’s been cutting in and out all evening. Wood pile ain’t lookin as good as it did in Dec. Never saw over 29* here on da Knob.
DT’s first guess map is out.
http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/1stg.jpg
I do NOT agree with the 2-4 in Roanoke and think it’s overdone.
The NWS has issued a WSWatch for Russell, Lee, Scott, Wise and Washington Co in VA and all of Eastern TN and northern GA for Thurs Nite through Fri. They are saying we should be all snow with ice to our south in TN and GA. They are also saying in their advisory we could see heavy snowfall but amounts are not projected at this time. Time will tell. Also, the clipper tonight seems to be to far north of us unless we get some upslope by the morning hours.
so now we are down to just a few inches of snow….next thing you know the Friday forcast will be partly cloudy, great night for star gazzing…. the closer friday gets the less chance for any snow at all…
Uh, jogger … there never have been any expectations here of anything more than a few inches. I’ve never floated a number higher than 5 inches. Anywhere else, seen only a few mentions of 4-8. This has never been projected to be a really big storm by anybody, anywhere, that I’m aware of.
Brandon R: If you look, he’s got Roanoke in Pulaski County again. Roanoke is actually 2 counties northeast of the ROA on his map, in 1-2.
Brandon, I think Roanoke is in the 1 to 2 inch area on DT’s map. The line cuts through the eastern part of Montgomery County and on down over the NE corner of Floyd County ….. probably right over Doppler Carol’s home. When one looks at a map of SW Virginia, always look for Floyd County’s distinctive shape. Sort of an arrowhead pointing NE. Roanoke County is the small county to the NE of Floyd.
NWS Greenesboro forecasting around an inch as of today.
With psbl 2 inch accum right around the Va border.
Just adding this to give a suggestion of surrounding reasonings
to roll into your own personal mixes.
Yes, I can see that line right over me!
Kevin – in the picture above, what is that black line zigging around in Floyd County?
Yes, wdbrand – brought in more wood this afternoon to top off the wood racks. Woodstoves have been going 24/7.
That black line circles a zone of projected 0.5 inch from the clipper, Dop-C — right over you!
I know, but I think 1-2″ is overdone.
If 1-2″ is overdone it’s not going to do doodley!!
Advisorys watches and maybe warnings will be out by noon, I’m thinking. A least somewhere in our viewing area.
DT first guess map is out! He learned his lesson from the last storm and has no snow over our area of Virginia. HAHAHAHA our Death Star Forcefield is just to strong for Old Man Winter! Someday a Jedi will come along and use the Force to destroy the evil Forcefield, however I don’t think it will be this winter! HAHAHAHA I think I’m losing it fellow snow lovers! LOL
That was 2009-10, Jared.
NWS-Morristown disagrees that this will NOT be a significant event on Friday, as they are advertising “heavy” accumulations. Folks, all we need is about .35″ liquid to get about 6″ of snow in this setup. I think it has been so long since we had a nice/dry/cold/fluffy powder, that people forget how quick that kind of snow can pile up. Everyone calm down. 6″ is very much in the realm of possibility, especially NRV and west. Plus, it will stick right away and to everything! There will be no melting whatsoever.
6 inches is certainly possible. But they probably will get thicker moisture flow down there, Mike, and the drier air will be on this side of the mountains, not theirs. Typical overrunning setup.
Some incredible weather-related news stories tonight. First, the nation’s coldest temp (in the lower 48, that is) this morning was -36F. In North Dakota or Minnesota, right? Wrong. Maine, ayah. A little place named Estcourt Station, wherever that is ….probably in the north central part of the state. {A fellow letter carrier who was raised in Fargo, ND, claimed it was -33 there, but with big winds}.
2nd, a man who lives somewhere in coastal New Jersey whose house was badly damaged by Sandy has never received any aid (yet) and his house is still without heat. He is living in a trailer right next to the home.
3rd, Chicago firemen battled a huge pre-dawn blaze at a warehouse with temps near or slightly below zero. The water froze on the side of the building. City officials brought some busses to the area so that the firemen would have someplace to warm up after trying to get the fire under control for extended periods. The huge gloves that the firemen wore froze.
4th, this will probably be the coldest week in New York City in about 5 years, I think I heard.
Think 09-10 was his last harrah! Haven’t seen the Jedi since. I do hope he comes back someday.
So Kevin, we’re back to a projected AM start time for the ‘Noke? Not the mid/late afternoon start time floated out there yesterday? I know timing can be difficult 36/48 hrs. out but what’s your best estimate at this point.
I think it will be more noon/early afternoon for Roanoke. The mid-late morning I mention above is more for Southwest Virginia as a whole, not specifically Roanoke.
As any of you who have lived in an area of the country that gets week-long or longer periods (and especially several weeks!!) of all below-freezing temperatures knows, the chances of frozen pipes, no heat, and other of a myriad frigid temp screw-ups go way up. It is one thing to get 2 to even 4 days of all below freezing temps …. when the mercury stays below freezing (and that usually means that at least the long nights are WAY below freezing) for 7+ days, misery often follows. Kelly Hoge, have you had to deal with long periods like that? I bet yes.
This time B-Mike, at least it won’t stick to tree limbs and power lines as long as it’s snow. That’s a plus. Don’t look like folks in Tenn. will fair that well.
That line on DT’s first guess map is right through the Ellett Valley in eastern Montgomery County (hint, where I live!). I think Bburg will get 3. Ellett Valley will get 1.5. Usually, Bburg gets more.
Always with the negative waves, Jared, always with the negative waves.
I know things have been pretty grim up here snow wise for awhile but I’d bet we have seen more snow than my old hometown (ROA) has seen in the past 5 years by a long shot. I used to think Roanoke had a snowdome and it really does. They just get luck every once in awhile. I’ve seen snows that were a sure bet just completely dry up when they approach Roanoke. I can’t tell you how frustrating it is to watch the radar down there and see the mountains constantly suck up all the moisture and maybe we’d see a flurry or two out of a potent clipper system. Or how many times rain was supposed to change over to snow. That never happened. More times than not you’d see the temperature just hover around 33 or 34 and you can practically see the snow about 1000 feet up melting as it was headed to land. I think we are just far enough north to stay snow while they are right on the border. Didn’t happen last week but chances are we’ll see a good snow sooner or later and the snow hounds down there will be moaning.
Yeah snow has been a little scarce up here recently but overall I like my chances for snow here better than down in Roanoke.
Have a little faith…
http://youtu.be/Xyh-JpWdGmQ
Just checked the radar and its my guess we won`t get any snow up here in Northern Fauquier County as that evil Snowshoe Mountain will tap all the moisture coming south tonight.Down to 21.5 now.But still not as cold or windy as last night.
Of course, there would be snow forecast for the day before I’ve got movers scheduled to come and get my furmiture. Sorry, snow lovers, usually I’m with you, but this time I’m hoping for a bust.
My first call. 1-3″ nrv . 4-8″ western slopes. Dusting to 2″ everywhere else.
Fasten your seat belts, snow lovers. For those of you who have not watched WDBJ7 at either 5 PM nor 6 PM, want to guess what their latest snowcast was for Roanoke (for Friday, of course)? 3 inches! 1 inch more than our beloved Mr. Myatt mentioned above. However, it wasn’t Robin Reed. It was Jay Webb, who is my favorite local TV meteorologist.
John from Rsville: Beautiful!! I just clicked on your youtube link. What do you think, John, should I call our Greene County golf guy “Jumpin’ Jared Moriarty?” Or “JJM” for short? However, the F for French in “JJF” is much closer to the Rolling Stones’ Jumpin’ Jack Flash. As an ancient TV commercial shown on NFL games used to say, “You make the call.”
I just clicked on the polar view map from Allen Huffman’s website, and there is a very impressive polar vortex over Labrador right now. Where is that forecasted to go, Kevin? Or do (such as weaken?)? Has that been causing the big Arctic airmass in the eastern USA?
That’s it, Doug. The high pressure blocking didn’t set up quite right for that whole thing to come rolling down into the eastern U.S. But it’s close enough to drop some cold air on us.
If the Euro is right, it looks pretty similar again in 10 days.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro500mbHGHTNH000.gif
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro500mbHGHTNH240.gif
Jared…listen to the voice of reason…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&v=BQ4yd2W50No
Perfect 3 days here at Heavenly at Tahoe. Lifts were shut down early due to the strong winds with gusts up to 65mph. Winds are supposed to subside Thursday PM.
Don’t think this snow will be much for the east. Agree with Brandon.
Will post Tahoe pictures on QWC later. Time for evening festivities as the gang is hitting Caesar’s for Casino Night. Place your bets.
I have a bit of vertigo now that Quagmire is saying not much and Channel 7 is one of the higher rollers.
LOL @ Kevin.
I certainly would not be surprised if this snow ends up being a bust. However, NWS in Morristown is typically very conservative on these storms and now are coming in early with the watches. It will be interesting what they are proclaiming in the morning.
You mean vertigo like this? Wait til the end of the clip.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4CwFlycpiJw
Blacksburg Mike has been on this for days and Brandon R still isn’t buying it. I remember times that’s been flipped in the past, too.
Doug, we’ll call him Jared French of Greene County.
Greene County’s #1 snow hound.
Jared, I have the perfect job for you. Snowshoe has one of the top rated golf courses in WV. You need to go up there and be their head greenskeeper. You will see so much snow up there over the course of the year you won’t know what to do. Sunny days are sometimes hard to find though.
When it does finally snow here, I want to go outside and hear you yelling over in your corner of Greene County.
I guess that’s tonight’s clipper on the radar translating over the mountains and filling in just north of Richmond?
I’ve seen too many of these borderline northern stream storms miss Roanoke entirely. However, I might start to believe if the next run of models are anything like the 12z runs.
Great flick, Quags. The version for this blog should be titled “Snow Anxiety” though.
In my best Dr Lil Ol Man imitation: Poor, poor Mr. French. He vas komitted lasht veek wik the Schno Anxiety.
You better get out on the slopes early tomorrow, Quags, because as you know, those who are late do not get fruit cup.
New NAM is looking pretty moist for Friday. Will post some frames in a little while.
OK, JFR, “JJF” it is. “Jared French of Greene County” was not one of the options. {Now the following is a joke, John:} Since you did not answer the question properly, there will be a 5-point deduction and I will repeat the entire question for Slippery Rock College.
Anyone here remember what that was taken from? You have got to be old to remember it. Or better, does anyone CARE where it was taken from? :>)
Laura, would you like some help from the Snow Haters Club on Friday? We have a one-time special offer just for you.
24-hour precip totals through early Saturday on the new NAM (0Z). Dark green across most of our area is 0.25-0.50 liquid equivalent. Would be widespread 3-6 inches IF it verifies.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&cycle=00&image=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_057_precip_p24.gif
If you snow lovers can coax the dark blue in NE Tennessee northeastward you’ll really have something going.
I guess we’ll be looking at ratios higher than 10:1, Kevin?
Likely, Ben G., though that’s often a bit hard to calculate. Crystalline growth is a lot more complicated than just colder = drier, fluffier snow, though that’s generally the case. Thinking 12:1 to 16:1 might be possible.
What that means for those who don’t know is how many inches of snow per inch of liquid. Last week’s ratios were mostly under 10:1.
Thanks very much for showing the projected polar view maps for the first weekend in February, KM. I just might prolong my stay in Florida.
In reply and in addition to your 9:43 comment, Kevin, the snow lovers need to not only get the bigger moisture levels here, but also keep the sub-freezing line to the SW of us.
True, Doug. Sometimes the thicker moisture comes with warming aloft. Gonna be hard to buck that Arctic air mass, but we’ve seen it do it before.
If/when we do get snowstorm on Friday, it will be a blessed relief to get one that is relatively dry. Seems like many of the past 6 or 7 (8 or 9?)snowstorms in the Roanoke valley, dating back to the end of January 2010, have been loaded with moisture, and a real bear to shovel.
Okay, I hate to say it, but this snow lover’s getting nervous. We’re going to a concert here in Roanoke on Friday night– what are the odds of that getting hampered? (It’s the Zachary Brown Band, at the. Roanoke Civivc Center.)
I know, that’s Zac Brown– dang auto correct!
Very light snow falling here in Eastern Greene County.
Left Wintergreen about an hour or so ago, and it had begun to snow up there. Reduced to mainly flurries/very light snow as I dropped down to I-81 south of Staunton.
Kevin, comment 51, at 9:52 PM. One storm that was like that, with warm air aloft sneaking into the Roanoke valley and “ruining (from a snow lover’s POV)” a possible 6-inch or 5-inch snow happened on December 16, 2010. I just looked through all the comments over two days back then. It was sleeting so hard about noon then that the sleet bounced 6 inches off of a package that I was taking to a door. I can still picture that happening. But what did I just do 10 minutes ago? Short-term memory cells …. they are such a precious thing to lose.
Just watched Jay Webb again on MY19, and he is still calling for 3″ for both ROA and Blacksburg, 4″ for Lewisburg, WV. Smaller amounts the farther south it showed. He is using the GFS model, by the way. Then switched to Fox 21/27 and saw Jeff Haniewich’s snowcast. From eastern Montgomery County westward and SW, 2 to 4 inches. For Roanoke valley and points north (but not NW), east and south, coating to 2″.
NON-WEATHER. While looking back through those comments from 2+ years ago, I saw 2 or 3 by a wonderful lady named Jean Frank. She lived near Windy Gap, just off Rte 116 – the Jubal Early Highway – at the Roanoke County/Franklin County line. Anyone have any idea what has become of her? I miss her comments.
DT says the 00z NAM is showing increased moisture, more snow for all of Va. He does point out that this model often over does the moisture, but it continues the model trend for more moisture.
… and now the GFS is DRY compared to NAM …
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&cycle=00&image=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_051_precip_p24.gif
Even if it snows just a little bit on Friday,everyone remember that it will be slick out there,since it has been so cold!! Last weeks wet snow caused very little travel issues since it took so long to accumulate. Even an inch or two on Friday could cause major headaches since it has been cold the pat few days…
Maybe last Thursday was OK for road conditions down your way, Super Vet clark, but there were major disruptions “up” here in Roanoke. but your advice is still excellent.
Kevin at 10:50 PM, where is the freezing line on that GFS map, please? Is it A. the black line that goes south through eastern Tenn and down into Georgia; or B. the black line that goes right through SW Virginia; or C. neither of the above?
The GFS map I posted does not contain the freezing line. A quick check on several frames shows the freezing line at 850 millibars (about a mile up, a decent indicator of the rain/snow line) hanging out near or just south of the NC-Va border through the precipitation.
I just looked at DT’s facebook page, and about an hour ago he is “shouting” that the NAM model is projecting 8 inches for all of SW Virginia from just west of Roanoke to Wise (very far SW Virginia in case you have not heard of it). IWBIWIHOI. = I Will Believe It When I Hear Of It. The snowfall amounts, that is.
Kevin, is the GFS drier than its past runs or is it pretty much maintaining its current level of moisture over its last few runs?
GFS is pretty similar to its past runs with a few oddball light precip holes in it. Good part of SW Virginia still in .10-.25 liquid equivalent, which would be 1-3 inches of snow, potentially.
Definitely see no reason to shift gears much yet based on model runs tonight. One is wetter than the other. That’s usually the case at this point.
Looking at the soundings from both the 0z NAM and GFS, anything that falls in and around the Roanoke area will be all snow.. Of course if the GFS is correct it’ll be much lighter in terms of accumulation.
Further south (Southside) there’s more of a chance of maybe a little mixed precipitation because of a warm nose coming in around the 850mb level per the GFS soundings. NAM is colder/more precip. GFS is warmer/less precip. Both show all snow at Roanoke, though.
Coaxing that dark blue on the NAM!! Come on!
I think Friday won’t be much of anything. A moisture starved system with just a little light snow.
While everyone is looking ahead to Friday, we’re getting a very good snow tonight. Not sure how long it will last or how much we’ll get but I’ll take it. Just moved the 4×4 into the garage to thaw out in case we wind up with more snow than they projected. I’d say we are pretty close to it now (1/2 inch of very powder like snow so far)
Kevin, can you recall the last time a system similar to what we are expecting on Friday significantly overachieved on predicted snowfall amounts?
John from Ruckersville above sent me this photo of his ongoing snow:
http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/2013/01/brush-of-snow-tonightearly-thursday-a-few-inches-possible-friday/greenecosnow/
Jared, you getting any of that?
im glad we are getting these brushes with snow it beats last winter
im thinking this will suprise us 3 inches is my call looking at factors
not tonight but friday
New Canadian now shows a brief period of moderate snow for Roanoke. 12z run showed most of the moisture jumping over us.
http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html
Brandon R: Don’t have a good answer for you with your 12:11 a.m. question. The first thing that would require is determining a similar system would be. December 22 or so in 2000 does come to mind, though. It was a 1-2-inch forecast that went 3-5 with a northern stream disturbance. Can’t say that was the last, though, for sure.
Noticing some strange warm air advection with the clipper or downsloping has warmed Blacksburg’s airport to 36 degrees early this morning (meanwhile, 31 at Roanoke Regional). A new reinforcement of Arctic air is sliding in behind this clipper system, though. Just an interesting little quirk.
Our forecasted 1/2″ of snow turned out to be 2 3/4″. Have a little faith…..
NAM looking moist this morning 3-6″ amounts in the NRV. On the other hand the GFS looks very dry coating to 2″ amounts.
Anyone notice major warm up for next week? 60 degrees or better then rain showers and cooler by late week. Longer range colder and more stormy thru middle of Feburary when MJO transitions to much warmer for us for last half of Feburary . Maybe an early spring
KM-thanks for your comment at 1:18am. I went to bed at 10pm and the temp was 26, but woke up at 2am and it was 36! I thought my thermometor was broken! Was this some kind of an Appalcahian “Shinook”? Weirdest thing I can ever recall, and it was NOT at all forecasted by anyone. So much for staying below freezing for nearly 6 consecutive days.
By the way – snow storm looking better, again for those in the NRV and west especially. Thinking 6″ good bet now.
The NAM has Wytheville getting 6″ but I’m thinking 2″.
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=FCX
A cold 15 this morning with 1.5 inches of snow and still coming down lightly.Have a good day all.Jared hope you received some of this snow down there in Greene.John from Ruckersville how much did you get?
Mercy, mercy! That wind has been howling! If it is not slamming into the house, I can hear up in sky. I will be glad when noon comes and the wind advisory is over. I can deal with most every type of weather but howling winds have always bothered me.
It was 28 just after midnight; 26 around 5 am and now it is down to 21. I think the reinforcement of Arctic air is here, Kevin.
Woke up to four inches on my deck here in northern Albemarle
County five miles south of the Greene County line.
“Balmy” 27.5* here, but windy again. At least this almost certainly means that we won’t have to scrape the winshields on the postal trucks.
Brent Watts said 2-4 inches for Virginia mountains, 1-3 most other places. Provided no map the two times I was watching. Oh, and he now agrees with the early afternoon start to the fun.
Temps are dropping fast. 2682* now. Hows about a 42.5 MPH wind gost at 6:26 AM. Been steady blowin from the mid teens to the upper 30′s here since
6 AM
25.7* now.
Noticed the same thing about the warm air,Kevin. It made it up to 36* at 1am here,then back down to 25 now,at 7am! Strong winds overnight too…
16* and a whopping one inch in the District, and still snowing lightly. It’s not much snow but nice to see.
I had that same brief “warmup” early this morning that others did. In the Windsor Hills section of Roanoke City, it was relatively calm and 28* at midnight. Was awakened by INTENSE winds (plus my garbage and recycling blowing over!) at 4 AM and the temp was 34! Back down to 26 now and still windy.
Awoke at 3am to howling winds in the Chapel. By 6am they were even stronger. Temps at Bristol rose to 40 but we were still in the 20′s at the Chapel. A few snow flurries as I came to work and temps dropping as predicted. Still under WSWatch for tomorrow.
Last night it went from 27 up to 34, and now back into the 20′s and very windy, with flurries but no accumulations.
A day away and I’m still not entirely sure what tomorrow’s system will bring…
Please tell me Jared got some snow overnight.. that poor guy deserves a surprise.
Blacksburg Mike I think you are going to be extremely dissapointed Friday. NAM is the only model amped like it is, and even it is only showing 3-4″. Just my opinion! Hope i’m wrong.
John from Ruckersville in Greene County checked in with 2 3/4 inches of snow overnight.
http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/files/2013/01/johnrsnow.jpg
I am in Mendota (northwest of Bristol…in Washington County but a long ways from Michael Hoback). We are currently under a Watch. Do you think the snow will actually make it? Last week ‘s snow left us without power or phones until Sunday.
Eva, I think you’ll get at least some snow tomorrow — and keep your power. Impact on power lines will be much less. But it will stick on road surfaces almost immediately, as cold as it’s been.
Jared must be out in the snow enjoying every single second while it lasts.
Actually Eva … backtracking a bit on what I just said … you are likely to get snow but have a better chance of getting in some sleet/freezing rain mix than locations farther north. Probably not enough ice for widespread power outages, but it is more a threat to cause problems than the snow will be.
The big thing I have to figure out for tomorrow…do I take my car and leave my wife with her 4wd SUV, or do I take the SUV and leave her with the 5-speed? I guess I’ll have a better idea tomorrow morning. While the snow would stick immediately, the lightish amounts make me think that it’s something VDOT should be able to keep up with on the main roads, especially if it starts in the afternoon and they’d have a couple hours to be working the streets before my commute home. I’ll play it by ear/Radar/models I suppose…
Interesting that no watches or advisories have been issued for tomorrow. I’m sure something will get issued later today, but I think it speaks to the uncertainty surrounding Friday’s precipitation.
Hey Jared!! We are all hoping that you are enjoying some snow!
I noticed that the NWS has reduced our chance of snow to 80% but put us in the 2-4″ inch rain changing over to a wintry mix Friday night. I hope the wintry mix part doesn’t come and a hope we DO get the upper end of that accumulation but I somehow doubt it. This feels like one of those disappointing storms that we all so often get.
I’m expecting winter weather advisories with maybe some winter storm watches/warnings in West Virginia where upslope snow will continue after the main system passes.
Morristown Tenn. office has winter storm watches up in the counties near Bristol, but that is where more snow to mix is expected.
So basically we have 2 options. The super Amped NAM which is strong enough with the shortwave to work precip through the dry air and downsloping east of the Western Slopes.
OR the GFS which essentially kills the shortwave with a strong piece of Northern Energy. Leaving our whole viewing area virtually dry. Don’t think there will be much of an in between. Either this thing is strong enough and makes it over the mountains or it doesn’t and we get largely skipped over. Tough Forecast. Given the setup I am leaning towards the GFS. Hope I’m wrong cause I love snow!
Pure conjecture, but the NWS’s “100%” probability of snow in yesterday’s forecast for Friday was the kiss of death to me for this pending event. (They’re down to 60% probability for Roanoke this morning.)
12z NAM continues to show a nice moderate snow event for the area. It’s been fairly consistent with this so far.
12z NAM snow map. These are generated using 10:1 ratios..
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/12znamsnow_SE048.gif
Blacksburg Mike gets his 6 inches on that NAM map.
Continued upslope contributes to those spots of higher amounts on the NAM map Ben G. posted.
Still fairly confident this will be a non-event for Roanoke. NAM has a bad habit of overdoing the moisture.
NAM was better last week. GFS had heavy snow into central Virginia. NAM cut the snow off to the north more like what happened, focused accumulation southwest of Roanoke and even hinted at the Bedford County snow hole.
All of which means very little looking at this very different system.
Kevin, NAM is going up, NWS says 2-4 inches but HPC doesn’t even show a 10% chance for >4 inches for VA. Any comments on why there is not at least a small pob for >4?
*GULP* Kevin am I reading that map right? Is it saying Rocky Gap (in northern Bland County) could get 14-15 inches?
Here’s what HPC says in its discussion this morning:
THE HIGHER LIQUID EQUIVALENT TOTALS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM THE 00Z NAM WERE DIFFICULT TO JUSTIFY GIVEN THAT THE NAM IS MORE AMPLIFIED ALOFT APPROACHING THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT COMPARED TO ALL OTHER SOLUTIONS…WHILE THE FORMERLY STRONG SOLUTIONS OF THE UKMET/CANADIAN…AND OCCASIONALLY THE ECMWF HAVE TRENDED WEAKER OVER TIME.
The linked NAM map shows that, Renee — but I would not expect that.
Must say these couple of inches have been a nice surprise! Wont complain now since we are suppose to miss out on Fridays fun. Still hoping for at least a 6″ plus snow before its all said and done! Funny how they call for flurries and you wake up to a few inches, shows ya how much technology hasnt come very far over the years. Hope there is still some on the ground by the time I get home, so I can take my daughter out and let her play.
Oh, there’s my happy place. Ending with freezing drizzle. Nothing I like better than to drive to NC on Saturday after freezing drizzle at 22 degrees and wind gusts of 28. Luckily it’s a slight chance.
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=rnk&FcstType=text&zmx=1&zmy=1&map.x=150&map.y=139&site=RNK
Congrats ,Jared!! As my father used to say “beggers can’t be choosers”…
What is the timing of the beginning of the storm? NWS for Blacksburg says mostly over by 4pm which sounds like it starts earlier than the 1pm I had been hearing of earlier.
The freezing drizzle at the end of many forecasts on Friday is related to the drying out of the atmospheric layer cold enough for optimum snow crystal growth after the main system pushes through. So whatever moisture after that gets squeezed out after that may occur where it won’t fully develop into snow crystals. Amounts should be light, but as we know, it doesn’t take much freezing drizzle to get icy.
My husband just sent me a picture from Dawson, WV. Ground covered and he said it is still putting it down. I’m assuming this is the upslode snow showers from the clipper system still.
What is the timing of the Friday storm looking like now Kevin?
Yaaaaaaay!! Some snow for Jared! Hope there’s plenty left this evening for dad and daughter to enjoy!
Based solely on the past and not on any particular scientific expertise, I’m guessing this will be a total or near-total bust for Roanoke. I’d love to be wrong, but…
I’m not sure scientific expertise is particularly helpful at this point.
12Z GFS… not much for anyone in SWVA east of I77. Which model will be right?
DT just put up his newest comments from the 12Z NAM. He said it is still showing anywhere from 3-8 inches dependent upon elevation from Roanoke west to Wise. He did mention that this model continues to be “wetter” than any other model out there.
Same old, same old. New GFS is dry, less than .10 liquid (<1 inch snow)
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov//Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p48&cycle=12&image=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_066_precip_p48.gif
While NAM is still showing as much as .50 inch of liquid Roanoke and west.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov//Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p48&cycle=12&image=nam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_066_precip_p48.gif
A dusting to 5 inches doesn't make for a good snow forecast.
Kevin, do you anticipate any sig changes in NAM vs GFS before the actual event? Or are we at the sticking to our guns phase and we’ll just have to see tomorrow?
LOL, so true Kevin. Let’s split the difference and say 2-4″
The NWS folk sometimes say they are ‘blending’ one or more models in their discussions. So, let’s just say a dusting to 3 inches and do our own live forecasting while watching the radar tomorrow morning.
Sorry, should have said ‘two or more models’, not one or more…..
We’ll know fairly early in the game which model will verify since they’re giving us two completely different solutions.
Kevin, it looks like next week we will repeat the pattern, get warm, then another cold shot. Are we likely to be looking at a maybe/maybe not situation for the next weekend?
I quit trying to anticipate forecast models a long time ago — anticipating the actual weather is hard enough!
I think we’re going to be in a nowcasting mode tomorrow more than anything else, seeing what’s on radar and how it compares with various scenarios.
Trevar: I think we’ll have at least a couple more maybe/maybe not winter weather situations in February, maybe as early as 8-10 days from now.
Usually, DT really pushes the Euro models. I cannot find any mention of last night’s 0Z run on his Facebook page. What did it show us getting on Friday? Must not have been much or he would have been ‘woofing’.
Newman: You’re right. He didn’t mention it all last night. I saw a graphic from WDBJ this morning stating that the Euro showed 1-2″ for the Roanoke area. If I can find it again, I’ll post a link.
Found it. Here you go Newman. Click on the middle picture.
http://brentwatts.tumblr.com/post/41360546527/a-few-of-the-models-weve-been-looking-at-this
Anyone know what the qpf totals were from the Oz Euro last night? And should we expect the Euro to hold par for the 12z run?
oh, well nevermind, thanks for that link Brandon R!
DT’s First Call map is out.
http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=475407612506502&set=a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717&type=1&theater¬if_t=notify_me
Brandon, thanks for the link. Looking at Mr. Watt’s graphic, and seeing the other models today, it looks like the NAM is an outlier.
DT just put out his first call map. If you overlook the fact that he has Roanoke in Pulaski county LOL, he has us (Roanoke) in the 1-2 inch range, using the correct geographical location for Roanoke anyway.
Any idea when this wind will die down out here in Bonsack? Lost four shingles and need to figure out a way to protect the roof before the potential snow comes. I hear it’s too cold to mess with shingles because they will break, so hoping to put a tarp up, but kind of hard to do that in this wind…
Hey Kevin, I think you pretty much answered my question in #136, but we have our big ski trip to Snowshoe Feb 7th – 10th. Since next week we are slated to warm up some, are chances pretty good that the following week (the week of the ski trip) will be the inverse and the weather will help to support a few days of quality skiing?
Thanks!
Don’t see where your located Kim, because you didn’t say or have a location listed in your sign-in handle???
Kevin, since this looks to be nothing much when does the next big chance at a storm come? Is it still looking like the first week of February is going to be cold with a chance at a big storm?
Kevin or anyone else: I am driving to Richmond tomorrow. I had originally planned to leave in the afternoon, but now plan to leave around 10 am to miss the snow. Can anyone tell me what to expect in Richmond in the afternoon and evening? I was sort of hoping to be able to go out for a decent dinner tomorrow night, but I now wonder if that is wishful thinking and I will be stuck in the hotel eating snacks.
wdbrand… I’m located in Bonsack. I updated my sign-in. Thanks!
Anyone know what the qpf was for the 12z Euro? I’m guessing it’s pretty much the same as the 0z?
Jared, glad you finally got you some snow!! 2-inches is better than nothing and hope you and your daughter had a good time playing in it! Have faith kiddo, you’ll get your good one before winter’s end!
I have just seen something that seems strange. We are now under a Winter Storm Watch tonight and a Winter Weather Advisory for tomorrow, however, our snow is not supposed to start until 9am on Friday. The local forecast is for 3-5 inches of snow and the advisory forecast is for 2-4 inches. Talk about confusing. Not sure why the Winter Storm Watch was just not cancelled altogether???? The rest of East TN is under a Winter Storm Watch tonight and a Freezing Rain Advisory tomorrow. Go figure????
Kevin, your thoughts?
Salt trucks are out and about in Southwest Roanoke. This is a sure sign it’s not going to snow tomorrow.
For those asking about 12Z Euro, secondhand I have seen that it spits out about .15 inch of liquid for Roanoke, so 1-2 inches would be the general ballpark.
Michael Hoback: I would say they’re covering their bases down there, able to switch from winter storm watch to warning if the NAM moisture numbers are going to verify.
When do the GFS, NAM and Euro models typically run? Please help this TWLS understand the timing of the models.
NAM runs 4 times a day — usually comes out close to 3 and 9 p.m. Watching 1 run come in now. GFS follows about 2 hours later. I usually don’t see the Euro til after the fact so not sure exactly when it comes out, but later than GFS.
As Rosana Ana Dana used to say on Saturday Night Live – NEVER MIND! The NWS has now cancelled the Winter Storm Watch for tonight. We are under a Winter Weather Advisory from 7a – 7p tomorrow for snow possibly mixing with sleet in the pm. The advisory is predicting 1-3 inches but the afternoon forecast for 24361 zip is 3-5 of snow with a high of 29. I will let you all know tomorrow how much we get. I see that still no advisories out of Blacksburg. That may be how they cover the bases on this one – just wait till its over.
Kevin, the Euro typically starts running between 1:15 and 1:30, AM and PM.
As of 3:15 p.m. NWS-Blacksburg hasn’t come out with their afternoon package yet, so we don’t know the status of advisories just yet. No new forecast discussion either. It’s often close to 4 when this updates on a day with lots of decisions to make.
Thank you Kevin. You are our go-to guy for snow here at school.
.15? sounds good, thanks Kevin!
18Z NAM a hint drier, but showing .10-.25 liquid over most of the area, more west of I-77 corridor.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov//Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&cycle=18&image=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_033_precip_ptot.gif
The 1-3-inch general range seems to be solidifying some.
I will plan a totally new blog entry 5-6 p.m. when I can get to it.
Ha! Brandon, I was thinking the same thing. They’ve salted the roads in Blacksburg and out to Giles County. VDOT’s jinxed the snow!
Just put up a short new post to note winter weather advisory. Will be updating it in the next couple of hours.