Drought expands despite recent rains; little precipitation into early next week
If you’ve been wondering whether or not recent rain and wintry precipitation in our region has made a significant dent in the long-term drought, the U.S. Drought Monitor map for Virginia released Thursday replies with a resounding “No.” The area of moderate drought expanded slightly westward to Roanoke’s northwest along the I-64 corridor, and continues to cover the state from the New River Valley east to Richmond and from the North Carolina line (really, from Atlanta and central South Carolina, where it gives way to even darker shades signifying deeper drought) to Harrisonburg and Charlottesville. The National Weather Service in Blacksburg issued a statement Thursday coinciding with the release of the new drought map, noting that stream flows did “respond positively” to the rains near Christmas but without further rain, it won’t do a lot of good for the long-term drought situation. And, as a reminder, a huge portion of the central U.S. continues to suffer even more extreme levels of drought. Winter is the season when soils and reservoirs regain moisture for the spring and summer ahead. So far, it’s not looking good for our region or for many areas that provide food to the nation and much of the world.
There’s not much in the way of precipitation in the near future for Southwest Virginia. A series of upper-air disturbances are passing through over the next three days, but they are moisture starved, and encountering a “convergent” upper-air flow (wind vectors blowing toward each other, rather than diverging, or splitting) that cuts off atmospheric lift for what little moisture there is. Some brief periods of rain, freezing rain, sleet or snow may be possible, with perhaps the best chance late Saturday and early Sunday. At this time it does not look like a significant precipitation event, wintry or otherwise, will occur through at least next Wednesday. The latter half of next week, however, may produce a large central U.S. storm system moving toward the Great Lakes that could bring widespread and significant rain to much of the South and East, preceded by a few days of warmth that may reach the 60s as southerly and southwesterly winds ahead of the storm sweep milder air into our region. There are signals that storm systems in the central U.S. will help bring down significantly colder air into the Plains by late next week, perhaps spreading eastward after that. And there are hints that a significant Arctic outbreak is a possibility for the latter half of January.
January 3, 2013 - 11:46 PM
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Doug: Continuing our drought-related discussion from the last thread — the Roanoke Times archives says that both of our memories are fuzzy. It was Feb. 24, 2003, when Carvins Cove reached full pond after being 34 feet below in the previous fall. That was the weekend of a heavy rainstorm that melted a lot of remaining ice/snow in the surrounding mountains.
I wasnt fast enough Kevin…
but here..
Check out old smoothie face!!
http://www.roanoke.com/weather/apr04.html
Oops. About Carvin’s Cove. Anyway, it is 27 starry degrees here.
Today will be the 9th day out of the past 10, where the high temp in Blacksburg has been 38 or lower. What a complete and total waste of cold air. Winter (cold) is here folks, and it will get colder again after next week, but precipitation (snow) is not in the cards at all anytime in the foreseeable future.
Kevin, the previous thread had some discussion of accuracy of the more long range forecasts. The post by Brad Panovich is a good example of a common problem. He discusses a potential event the long range model is showing, but also notes this is a long range model not known for accuracy, but the event is worth watching for. I am sure in the meterological circles that would be taken for what it is worth, something to start watching, but not forecasting yet. And I am sure many mets are groaning already, saying why did he have to post that, because we, the general public, will take if for an absolute forecast and rake him over the coals in two weeks if it does not happen. I have not followed DTs posts for very long, but I wonder if his mistake is he posts what models show, not necessarily saying it will happen, but most readers assume that is what he is saying.
Personally I really enjoy having access to what those of you post who are in the know, you, DT, NEWxSFC, Quad, Griggs, and others here on the blog. A couple of years of following HM on accuweather I found that sometimes those long range models are right. I have seen a few storms he called 10 days out verify, and I have seen others fizzle out. I did note that what Brad had to say was look, this model run may be way overdoing it, as is its bias, but if it is half right, we may be in for quite a cold spell. Anyway, you must be doing something right, 94 posts with the kind of weather we are having, and no facebooking, tweeting or twittering?
22* in Woodlawn this morning…seems like a nice FALL morning…
18 this morning with bright sunshine and very little breeze. Let’s hope we get some moisture from late January and on into spring.
Good grief, Joe — where did you find that? I thought I had successfully purged all those?
Actually, there’s lots of old Roanoke Times stuff still floating around from my early days here, weather and hiking items. You can see how the last 8 years have aged me.
It was 18 cool degrees in the Chapel. The sun was a welcome change yesterday and today. Enjoyed those starry skies last night. By the way, who was that clean shaven man that Joe sent our way on the 12:16 am post?
Maybe we will hear him on WVTF this afternoon.
I am back on WVTF today after a week off last week.
To Blacksburg Mike’s point — I think we get a significant rain (early thinking .50-1.00 inch) toward the end of next week. But it is possible that if we do go off the Arctic cliff in a couple of weeks, a pattern may set up with very cold but dry air and a suppressed storm track. Too early to know that for sure, since the Arctic outbreak itself remains somewhat iffy (cold air returning is likely, whether the mother lode rolls down is still subject to conjecture, though many factors are favorable).
Often the best chance of major winter storms with a pattern shift like that are near the beginning and end of the period rather than during the middle of it. Actually, if the Arctic air core parks a little north and west of us and doesn’t fully penetrate the Southeast, and we are on the southern edge of the cold, the storm track could be more favorable for Gulf systems climbing up the East Coast, at least far enough north to be snow-makers in our region.
The flip side for snow lovers of a major Arctic outbreak is that we can have unusually high snow:liquid ratios, which means bigger bang for the buck on the limited moisture of a stray clipper or weak overrunning setup.
All speculative at this point.
I guess I’m tempering a bit, but as long as we get adequate moisture this winter, be it white or wet, I’m not going to be fussed all that much. I love snow, but I’m more concerned about the drought and could accept a dearth of cold and snow if it meant we got a substantial amount of winter rain to replenish groundwater supplies, re-fill the reservoirs, and abate the dryness we’ve had since spring/summer.
Kevin..and all..
I found that by just using a few key phrases..
You talk about the Carvins Cove “big drink”.
I had never seen anything archived that long ago in the RT.
Intresting to see what the kid looked like
around the time Noah started looking for a marina
and some dry straw.
I wish Mountain Lake would refill, it use to be so beautiful! Rode up over Christmas just so I could remember what snow looked like and it was pitiful looking. Did however have 3-4 inches of snow, which was beautiful. I read an article not long ago saying some experts from VT wanted to try pouring small stones into the cracks where the water was receding. Does anyone know if they might follow through with this? They said it might seal the leak!
Mountain Lake kind of holds a special place in my heart. It was owned by some of my ancestors (Porterfields) from 1900-1930 before the Moody’s got it. Also enjoy hearing stories of Lewis Flavius Porterfield (another ancestor) who led Crooks army across Mountain Lake after they destroyed the railhead in Dublin. I think that is what contributed to the demise of Lee’s army, because he could no longer get supplies from Tennessee.
Jared ..
I posed a suggestion here I think
(or on another ROA blog) about
introducing a liquid dye in various holes
in teh botom of Mountain Lake.
They would be able to assess by volume and time
which holes were able to exit the most water.
After they got an idea of smallest to largest culprits
they may start to slowly fill some of these voids with a
sand and pebble slurry.
I see no reason it wouldnt work.
I worked with some of this technology back in the late 80′s
in Bath County at the hydroelectric site.
I do seem to recall someone had been hired to study it..
but nothing recent.
Other John, I agree with you about getting any type of moisture. The wind this morning has really picked up and it is sunny but frigid out there. Brrrr!
Afternoon in Abingdon remains cold with clouds now building. One bank thermometer registered 33 and another 36. Went for a walk and it was breezy and cold. Now all we need is snow.
Joe, they have already put dye in the lake and know where and what creek it shows up in. Whether they ever put dye in when the lake was this low or not, and into the suspected drain holes, I don’t know.
Trevar, I agree with you that at least sometimes that is what happens, Tolleris or another meteorologist (or a weather blogger) will post what a particular model shows in a single run and lots of folks take it and run with it that this is the forecast of what will actually happen. I like the public availability of forecast tools in the Internet age, information that used to be only available to a few professionals. I’ll take information overload over information restriction any day. That said, there is often a lack of expertise for many, and little understanding of how models are actually used in forecasting. I’m sure the same is true for information you can find in other fields that I could look at and not have the least clue about but jump to some kind of conclusions.
Here, I will always preface with “this is what the model shows” and emphasize that it may not be specifically accurate, or even generally accurate, but a possibility.
One issue with plugging the holes under Mountain Lake — what happens when the cycle flips and we’re getting frequent, abundant precipitation for several years? If it doesn’t drain properly, you could end with the reverse problem, and water running over the lake’s edge, or backing up into the hotel.
One other possibility the locals talk about is the limestone mining deep into the mountains could be doing damage somehow! Have heard those tunnels go back in there for miles. Oh well hope whatever it is can be solved! Hope you guys like my history lesson earlier lol. Lewis Porterfield was actually one of the first members of the Pinkertons also. Just throwing that out there.
So far, that has never happened in what?, 6/7000 years since the lake formed. Maybe because at full pond, the pressure forces water out. If the holes were plugged, then it would have to create a breach and overflow in a time of excess rain.
Blacksburg Mike, great comment of yours at 6:18 AM. I especially loved the short sentence “What a total waste of cold air.” Extremely clever. I think I can hear Mick Jagger singing softly “YCAGWYW ….” Or for the many, many snow lovers on this blog, the first letter could be changed to a “W.” For “We.”
I’m not sure we know everything that’s happened up there in 7,000 years. And we’ve never plugged all the holes before.
I don’t think it’s been studied enough to get a real handle on it. It’s said the lake was formed from slides and supplied by underground springs. That being said, it seems akin to our aquafiers, less going in than being taken out.
Kevin, was your “show” broadcast today yet on WVTF? I tuned in about 4:34 and listened to nearly all of the minutes between then and now, but no Kevin. What did you talk about?
It was supposed to be on at 4:30 p.m. I talked about the warm 2012, warming trend next week, and potential cold after this coming week. I didn’t break away from work to listen today.
I am going to post links to the CPC multi-day forecasts below, even though we just looked at them two days ago, because today’s maps are the last ones with human guidance until Monday. On the 6-10 day, if someone had showed me the map and not told me whether it was a weekday (human guided) or weekend (computer only) map, I would have guessed wrong. Take a look!!
6-10 day: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/index.php The temperature map is full of bright colors.
8-14 day: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
If it was fairly brief, I may have missed it by literally a minute. Thanks.
The maps seem about right to me. The area of above normal temps shrinks from the first to the second. The 8-14-day map covers Jan. 12-18, so even if there were a serious cold intrusion in the East starting after Jan. 15, it could well be that the week as a whole would still average above normal in the East. Early indications are the most of the cold goes into the central and west over the next 10 days, maybe longer.
So far in the 2012-13 winter … Little Rock is outpacing Chicago on snowfall by more than tenfold.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/chicagos-snow-lagging-behind-m/3583264
Kevin, let us assume that the 8-14 day temperature map verifies, that temps start dropping fairly quickly here about the 17th and 18th, then we get a cold snap. It sure looks like the colder air would be coming in from the west rather than the NW or NNW. True?
FWIW I talked to a guy at the pub on New Year’s Eve who said that the new owners of Mountain Lake have discovered the source of the leak and are planning to bring in people to build a dam of some kind. I have no idea if this is actually true, since I never met the guy before.
What I think is more likely to happen is that we get some modified seasonable type cold gradually working in from the west as storm systems keep cutting to the Lakes and dragging fronts through — and then, MAYBE, after the timeframe of these maps, something a little more potent from more of a northerly direction.
Just thinking if my ancestors hadnt sold Mountain Lake I could be running the 9 hole golf course, if it were still open today! LOL I cannot believe they use to have a golf course up there, but my grandfather use to play it. Would loved to had live up there! Could golf and trout fish and it probably never hits 90 up there.
Kevin…
I thought about the possibility of the inverse
scenario with the water..
Thats why it would make sense to identify the slower
draining crevices and plug them first.
KP and/or maybe some of her Hydrologist friends may be able
to weigh in. Another possibility may be to drill some holes
into the limestone and have it exit into a known void..
insert a steel liner into the hole just like a well casing.
When the lake got close to overflowing a valve at the full line
at the top would be opened. That way you could keep the natural shoreline
without a dam.
Mountain Lake is owned by Moddy endowment. They have had it ever since my ancestors sold it to them. The manager (Buzz Scanland) was suppose to retire this January. Maybe the new manager might have this idea. Only thing I have seen is researchers at VT were thinking about trying small river stones to maybe seal up the leak.
Snow Lover, if you can follow up on that and find the source of the leak, that would be great. Most interested myself. Let us know.
Regarding Mountain Lake too..
Its always possible that Mountain Lake is
a small example of what all of Burkes Garden valley actually is.
It might very well be the collapsed structure
of limestone and the actual floor of the lake
is the top of an old cave. It could just be that
there is a lot of unconsolidated material and rubble
from the collapse of that cavern just beneath the lake floor. Fifty or a hundred feet down from the present lake bed could be the old floor of that cave.
Doug-thanks for the note. By the way, these past 10 days (including today) in Blacksburg have indeed been the coldest stretch as measured by high temp, since we went 18 straight days in December 2010 at 38 or below. So, we indeed have had a pattern change the past 10 days, the likes of which we have not endured in just over two years, it just did not produce any significant snow. I am really concerned that the possible outbreak of 1985 style cold possibly arriving in mid-late January, will only reenforce the drought situation, and I am not at all excited about the possibility of anything more than some upslope snows for the usual suspects during that time frame.
I think you called the weather pattern change well before Christmas, Blacksburg Mike: Normal temps and a little wetter.
Well DT is putting all his chips on the QBO! It does show cold for late January into March. Kevin, how reliable is the QBO compared to other weather models?
QBO isn’t a model — it’s the “quasi-biennial oscillation.” In a nutshell, it refers to which direction the winds are blowing over the equator. They blow westerly for about 2 years, then easterly, etc. I have forgotten what I may have learned about its link to the Eastern U.S. winter. Will have to bone up again on that.
B. Mike, you are welcome. WDBJ7 claims that today’s high in Hokieburg was only 35. And you mentioned Dec. 2010 before I could. The past 10 days in Blacksburg might have been a bit colder than normal, but nothin’ like what December 2010 was. From the 2nd through the 29th the temp never got above 42 there, and on 11 dates the mercury never reached 30. At least Blacksburg got some snow and moisture, unlike Roanoke after 12-1-10. Bburg got 2.6, 3.2, and 3.8 inches of snow on the 4th, 16th and 25th (Christmas!). Other piddly amounts got the month’s total to 10.4 inches.
QBO-east favors a weak PV.
QBO-west favors a strong PV.
QBO is about to flip from E to W.
Don’t see how that’s supposed to be good.
Because so many days have been cloudy, highs have tended to be below normal of late, but lows somewhat above normal. My quick figuring since Dec. 20 shows Blacksburg a fraction above normal on average temperature, and Roanoke a little more — both close enough to be called more or less “normal.”
Roanoke got 1.4, 2.7 and 3.1 on those same 3 dates in December 2010.
Finally was in the teens this morning for a low.It was 19,high today 39,now back down to 29.Thats the first time it was in the teens all season.Looks like next week is trending warmer,but i will take it.Much easier on the heat bill.But i still want snow!Is that to much to ask for in January?LOL!
Jared….I think you mean Moody endowment,,
The Moody’s have a big Texas connection.
They were prominent in Galveston..and there
is now a very big attraction there as in plant and animal
biosphere (Moody Gardens) check it out…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Lewis_Moody,_Jr.
Quik overview of QBO and the role it can play in winter.
“QBO is important b/c it determines the character of the early winter. The east phase leads to a more disturbed and warmer Arctic in December and January.
“During winter…QBO appears to excite the ‘northern annular mode’ (aka Arctic Oscillation [Thompson and Wallace, 1998 (.pdf), 2000]. Its easterly phase is represented in composites geo-potential…wind…and temperature fields by a weaker polar vortex (PV)…warmer polar temperatures…and higher geo-potential heights at hi-latitudes.
“In years with low solar activity…the winter PV tends to be disturbed and weak when the QBO is easterly.”
—
http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2009/09/winter-09-10-quasi-biennial-oscillation.html
Thanks, NEWx. I posted your blog link on the new post as well.