Comments on: Drought expands despite recent rains; little precipitation into early next week

By: Kevin Myatt

Kevin Myatt — Sat, 05 Jan 2013 03:24:45 +0000

Thanks, NEWx. I posted your blog link on the new post as well.

By: NEWxSFC

NEWxSFC — Sat, 05 Jan 2013 03:16:31 +0000

Quik overview of QBO and the role it can play in winter.

“QBO is important b/c it determines the character of the early winter. The east phase leads to a more disturbed and warmer Arctic in December and January.

“During winter…QBO appears to excite the ‘northern annular mode’ (aka Arctic Oscillation [Thompson and Wallace, 1998 (.pdf), 2000]. Its easterly phase is represented in composites geo-potential…wind…and temperature fields by a weaker polar vortex (PV)…warmer polar temperatures…and higher geo-potential heights at hi-latitudes.

“In years with low solar activity…the winter PV tends to be disturbed and weak when the QBO is easterly.”

—
http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2009/09/winter-09-10-quasi-biennial-oscillation.html

By: joe

joe — Sat, 05 Jan 2013 02:42:14 +0000

Jared….I think you mean Moody endowment,,
The Moody’s have a big Texas connection.
They were prominent in Galveston..and there
is now a very big attraction there as in plant and animal
biosphere (Moody Gardens) check it out…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Lewis_Moody,_Jr.

By: Mike from Marshall

Mike from Marshall — Sat, 05 Jan 2013 02:21:15 +0000

Finally was in the teens this morning for a low.It was 19,high today 39,now back down to 29.Thats the first time it was in the teens all season.Looks like next week is trending warmer,but i will take it.Much easier on the heat bill.But i still want snow!Is that to much to ask for in January?LOL!

By: Kevin Myatt

Kevin Myatt — Sat, 05 Jan 2013 01:47:16 +0000

Because so many days have been cloudy, highs have tended to be below normal of late, but lows somewhat above normal. My quick figuring since Dec. 20 shows Blacksburg a fraction above normal on average temperature, and Roanoke a little more — both close enough to be called more or less “normal.”

Roanoke got 1.4, 2.7 and 3.1 on those same 3 dates in December 2010.

By: NEWxSFC

NEWxSFC — Sat, 05 Jan 2013 01:46:05 +0000

QBO-east favors a weak PV.
QBO-west favors a strong PV.

QBO is about to flip from E to W.
Don’t see how that’s supposed to be good.

By: Doug G, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft

Doug G, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft — Sat, 05 Jan 2013 01:30:50 +0000

B. Mike, you are welcome. WDBJ7 claims that today’s high in Hokieburg was only 35. And you mentioned Dec. 2010 before I could. The past 10 days in Blacksburg might have been a bit colder than normal, but nothin’ like what December 2010 was. From the 2nd through the 29th the temp never got above 42 there, and on 11 dates the mercury never reached 30. At least Blacksburg got some snow and moisture, unlike Roanoke after 12-1-10. Bburg got 2.6, 3.2, and 3.8 inches of snow on the 4th, 16th and 25th (Christmas!). Other piddly amounts got the month’s total to 10.4 inches.

By: Kevin Myatt

Kevin Myatt — Sat, 05 Jan 2013 00:53:39 +0000

QBO isn’t a model — it’s the “quasi-biennial oscillation.” In a nutshell, it refers to which direction the winds are blowing over the equator. They blow westerly for about 2 years, then easterly, etc. I have forgotten what I may have learned about its link to the Eastern U.S. winter. Will have to bone up again on that.

By: Jared French of Greene county

Jared French of Greene county — Sat, 05 Jan 2013 00:41:42 +0000

Well DT is putting all his chips on the QBO! It does show cold for late January into March. Kevin, how reliable is the QBO compared to other weather models?

By: Kevin Myatt

Kevin Myatt — Sat, 05 Jan 2013 00:25:42 +0000

I think you called the weather pattern change well before Christmas, Blacksburg Mike: Normal temps and a little wetter.