Extraordinary January warmth surge to trigger storms
It was almost hard to believe that Monday morning started with ice when afternoon highs soared well past expectations into the 50s and lower 60s (high of 60 at Blacksburg, 57 at Roanoke), thanks to an earlier exit of precipitation, more sunshine and a faster eroding of the cold wedge than expected . It’s symptomatic of an unusually strong surge of warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico that will reach southern Canada, pulled up by a strong upper-level jet stream trough digging into the central and eastern U.S. It’s more typical of something we would see in April rather than late January. Usually 
when such a surge of warm, moist air occurs in spring, it is swept aside by a cold front of Pacific or Canadian air mass — not a full-fledged Arctic front that may make our Thursday highs 30 degrees cooler than our Wednesday highs. In this collision of air masses, heavy rain and storms will develop, posing a significant tornado risk in the lower Mississippi River valley on Tuesday. In our region, on Wednesday, it is possible that downdrafts will bring some of the extremely strong winds to the surface, and we may see gusty winds (50 mph or greater) with a squall line during the afternoon or evening. Instability does not appear to be sufficient to support a widespread outbreak of severe weather in our region — cloud tops may not even be high enough for thunder and lightning, so whether these will truly be “thunder”storms remains somewhat in question. But because of the high-wind-gust risk, the Storm Prediction Center has placed us in a slight risk of severe weather for Wednesday. Also, we are likely to see 1+ inch of rain of rain as the cold front pushes and lifts the warm, moist Gulf air.
We’ll return to fairly typical late January/early February temperatures for several days after the frontal passage (30s-40s highs, teens-20s lows, generally), with northwesterly winds blowing over the mountains and possibly an Alberta clipper-type disturbance or two triggering a few intermittent rounds of snow showers. We’ll continue to watch next week to see if a system moving out of the West will interact with the cold air for a larger scale winter storm.
January 28, 2013 - 11:10 PM
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I couldn’t help but laugh when the dogs rushed out the door this morning only to slide very ungraciously across the deck with one of them crashing into the railing. But they are 74 in human years so I gotta be more careful when letting them out next time or they’ll hurt themselves.
Weird to have freezing rain this morning and then be standing outside just moments ago without a jacket on. Still about 50% snow cover here and it looks spectacular in the moonlight but it’ll be just about gone tomorrow night. Roads were nasty this morning especially since VDOT still hasn’t gotten to some roads around here since the last snowfall. Got up to 56 degrees today. Chucked a lot less wood today.
My temperature on my PWS has gone up 12.8 degrees in an hour and it continues to rise as I type this comment. A nice S to SW wind to thank for that.
It’s currently 55 degrees at almost 3 in the morning in January. That is just incredible.
I know that on occasion our area can see temps climb overnight, but last night made THREE out of the last five nights where this occurred (Windsor Hills area of SW Roanoke City, elevation 1066). Can’t remember a run like that!
41 this morning up here on Doppler Ridge. I am amazed at how much of our snow has melted overnight. Yes Kevin, this week seems to be one of extremes – ice, high temps, lots of rain and then probably lots of wind.
Get out and enjoy the day!
Big temp differences this morning. Currently low to mid 50s in Roanoke/Blacksburg while we’re at 35.9 in Goodview
I can see most of my grass for the first time in 12 days, here shaded by a ridge and trees at 1400 feet south of Ronaoke. 49 degrees this morning.
Kevin, GFS and NAM showing snow in the Thurs/Fri time frame. Why no talk about it?
Kevin , scheduled to fly back into Rke early Thursday am. Will most of the severe stuff be gone by then?
Severe stuff will be gone Thursday morning, but winds will be strong behind the cold front.
Pete: We do mention snow showers and Alberta clipper type disturbances above, which looks to be the extent of it.
There is something of an illusion on the NAM due to the speed of the system.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov//Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=06&image=nam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_048_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
It appears on here that there is precipitation behind the blue line which could be snow. However, what is actually occurring is that the precipitation is rain that has fallen in the last 6 hours, where as the blue line marks the extent of the cold air at the current time of the model frame. So the cold air is rushing in fast behind the cold front causing the rain.
The simulated radar for the same time frame on the NAM (early Thursday evening) shows the precipitation confined to eastern Virginia.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov//Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=06&image=nam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_048_sim_radar.gif
Most of our snow has now gone. My son played outside in his snow bibs and came in covered head to toe in MUD!!! He was thrilled of course LOL. Very balmy outside this morning, looked like we may have recieved some rain overnight also.
Record high temperatures for today are 68 at Blacksburg, 75 at Roanoke, both dating to 1975 (yes, right in the middle of the super-cold 1970s). Probably both within reach, considering how warm it’s started out, though I think the 75 at Roanoke will be a tall order.
Also of note is high wind watch for I-77 corridor and west on Wednesday. This is largely for gusty winds NOT part of the potential squall line mentiioned above. Other localities are likely to be added to the wind watch/warning/advisories later.
As cyclical as this pattern appears to be, I have a bad feeling about our ski trip to Snowshoe next week (Thu 7th – Sun 10th). I think by then the cold air from late this week/weekend will be getting replaced by warm air.
The long range maps seem to agree:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif
Where is the Greenland Block when you need it?
Kevin,
A while back you mentioned somewhere when the weather pattern is as it is with wild changes, that your homeland ends up with some troublesome weather. I just saw this map.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Will keep my fingers crossed that there’s nothing too troublesome coming Arkansas’ way!
Doppler Carol, I too was amazed at the snow melt that happened overnight! We have hardly any left at all here. We didn’t even have to run the heat much last night at all and I did not turn my electric blanket on to warm the bed before I turned in! I still love snow though, and hope for at least one or two more good ones before winter ends. But I tell you, the birds are incredibly happy this morning without a doubt, and my cats are happy to have something to entertain them! (Don’t worry, they don’t go outside so they only get to watch the birds through the windows.)
Me and the ole wood pile are gettin ready to get on a first name basis right now. Showing 71.4* in the sun. I ain’t lettin weather like this get by me.
99% of my snow cover is gone! But it seems to be clouding up so I think the temps will not get as warm as I thought. The birds are loving this warm up and our chickens are so happy to be out and free ranging.
I have been checking my flower beds and there are daffodils peeking through the mulch. I will have to cover them up.
Yes Tina, it would be nice for one more decent snow before the winter is over. Let it Snow, Let it Snow! LOL!
Kevin,,
Have to go in and fight the wx in a bit..
Looks like Fayetteville/Rogers/Harrison
are in line to get a few storms in the next
few hours. Tops Tul vcnty 350-400..some to 450
some hail in these too..
I think Ill file my Dallas Dulles flights today
on the “Natchez/Vicksburg” route!
The accuweather long range forecast for my zip code shows a lot of 50′s, some 40′s and an occaisional 30′s for the next couple of weeks. Looks like the arctic air is modifying or not making it as far south in the weeks to come. Could the worst be over? My daffodils are like Carol’s and they are hoping for better times ahead. Do wish we could have a real deep snow but it does not take arctic air for that as we have seen.
This next “cold shot” after Wednesday doesn’t seem to be near as cold as originally intended, and the shots of snow have gone kaput! That pretty much sums up the entire winter, except for that 4 day cold stretch were 24 was a high one day. Many mentions of intense cold and snowstorms that for the most part don’t happen. The cold after this stretch seems to be just basically seasonable…upper 30′s-mid 40′s, then mild again. I call mild anything 50 or above this time of year. Wonder what ol’ Punxatawney Phil will have to say 4 days! Personally, I think winter is about a done deal!
Batten down the hatches in Tornado Alley! Going to be a rough PM out there. Even Kevin’s home state is in cross hairs for the Wicked Witch of the North. Toto, I don’t think you will end up in Arkansas tonight!
Joe, try this route for KIAD. Better winds and smoother ride say FL370.
SOLDO3 ELD KM27M CARPT GSO J14 CREWE J51 FAK BARIN1
just a thought being that MEM & JAN may get shut down later.
Doug is having trouble posting this blog from his hotel server in St. Augustine, Fla. He wanted me to tell everyone here that since SW Va. has had sub-freezing temps recently, yesterday, today & tomorrow qualify as the “January thaw”. He’s enjoying upper 70′s & lower 80′s.
And so it begins for the Severe Weather. This is very serious stuff folks. Also, the threat for severe weather for the Mid-Atlantic will probably be increased as Tuesday high temps will amp up the atmosphere for Weds.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/
NWS SPC has us in a 30% probability for severe weather tomorrow.
Link for that 30% probability http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_1730_any.gif
Crazy warm here in Greene, made it to 72! First time I have broken a sweat working outside this year. Judging by long range like Mr. Hobak said the Arctic air seems to have been made to sound worse then what its going to he. So probably no more really good snow chances! Just another winter like last year, which I predicted.
Every time I have checked NWS for our local forecast during the past couple of days, the outlook for this weekend changes. Friday is particularly volatile. They can’t seem to pin anything down.
76.8 at 2:41 PM on my Davis this afternoon near Lexington. Felt every degree of it, too. Crazy.
Here is the Roanoke sounding from the 18z NAM. If I saw this sounding with CAPE 1000-1500 j/kg or more, I’d be very worried. A lot of other parameters are off the charts, but we are lacking good instability. (Which would be a good thing in this case)
http://i.imgur.com/QqrJnkW.png
There never has been any indication the Arctic air following this warmup would be as sharp as what occurred before.
This winter and last winter are radically different. This winter has been an up and down volatile winter; last winter was a steady mild winter. This winter has had an active weather pattern across the nation; last winter was very inactive. The weather patterns aren’t close to similar. A winter weather pattern is not solely judged by how much snow falls on one’s yard (though where I live, that’s been more by Jan. 29 than occurred in the entirety of last winter). And it’s still a long way from over. Anytime you start butting 70s against 30s and dipping the jet stream like is happening this week, the weather pattern is playing with dynamite. Just about anything is possible in the weeks ahead.
January snowfall is very close to normal for Blacksburg and Roanoke, at the official sites.
At Blacksburg, 8.1 inches is normal for January; 9.1 inches has fallen.
At Roanoke, 5.2 inches is normal for January. 5.0 has fallen
Those numbers vary substantially according to location. But in the Roanoke and New River valleys, strictly for snowfall, January has been pretty typical.
We may get a clipper system Friday that could trigger some light snow, and there appears to be new indications of a much wetter system next Tuesday or so that has at least a chance to be wintry. Long-range forecast temperatures will vary quite a bit depending on whether that system occurs or not.
I see no reason for snow-lover panic at this point, in fact, I see quite a bit of opportunity in the days following this front — unless you just have to have the foot-plus bomb to be happy. And there’s still time for that in February with this intensely amplified jet stream pattern.
People, we’ve got at least 6 more weeks of this stuff to sort thru. Don’t sell the plow yet.
DC, the wife was scratchin around in her flower bed and found some lilys comin up that the deer love. Had to go get a cage and nettin to put around them.
I just finished 12 days of continuous snowpack on my yard.
I went back and looked at all of the December 2009 and January 2010 entries the other night. Maybe you guys have forgotten, but we did experience a number of rainy and mild days that winter. Be patient. I have a good feeling about February.
KM – Put me in the “have to have the foot-plus bomb to be happy” category. Or, put me in the “could it at least snow for more than five hours for once?” category. These quick hitting (less than 8 hours), single digit (less than 10″) snow falls are frustrating. Better than nothing, but frustrating nonetheless.
Historically, foot plus bombs aren’t very common here. You must find yourself disappointed quite often.
I’m ready for spring. I’ve had enough of cold and (little)snow! This weather is a tease right now.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac, our favorite whipping boy according to Doug, has predicted that February will be 6 degrees below normal for us in the central Appalachians. I don’t see that happening. And….they say precipitation will be very light, 2 inches below normal. I don’t believe that either. I think we will be very close to normal on both temps and precip. And there you have it.
I pass no judgment on people’s weather wants. I drive people around each May who want to see tornadoes, so I wouldn’t have much standing to do so, anyway.
The only weather event I’ve found pretty much universal distaste for is ice storms. I’ve even found a few folks who like extreme heat.
My caveat to the last comment is that no one actually wants a tornado to hit their house but lots of people want to see one. Severe thunderstorms do have a fairly large fan base. On the whole, this is a less productive area for high-end severe weather than it is for snow. It’s actually one of the reasons I like to live here — as interested as I am in severe weather, chances are much lower of entire neighborhoods being disintegrated than they were back where I grew up in Arkansas. That’s a stress I’d rather not deal with on a daily basis with my family.
Not a good night to be in Kevin’s old stomping grounds. Arkansas is just starting with the severe outbreak now.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk/
This is what’s coming our way for Weds…Yikes!
“unless you just have to have the foot-plus bomb to be happy” – count me in with B’Burg Mike! =D Ok, to be happier, not happy. I was happy with the last two snows but a foot-plus bomb would increase my happiness quite a bit. Tee hee!
Anyway, I drove my Miata with the top down today and it was nice, but dang it was warm when I got out of the car with my sweater on!
PS…that’s some nasty looking stuff on the radar tonight! Reaching from MI to TX!
Watching radar too tonight and it looks pretty wild out there.
I feel winter is not over. I bet we get one more if not two more snows. We have the entire month of February and then there is always early March to consider too. I’m not packing up my snow shovel and winter clothes just yet.
I have never seen a full 3-4Ft snow with heavy winds blowing it into huge drifts. I am talking of the kind of system described in the Laura Ingalls Wilder books. I would like to see one…once.
@ David in Salem,
You should have been up on Poor Mountain a couple (or Three?)I’m trying to forget)) of years ago. The snow was up to my roof, and the drifts out on the road were up to 15+ feet. Only thing moving was us on skis and snowshoes. I’ve got some great pics, but don’t know how or where to upload.
Mike
Kevin I love ice storms, so long as I don’t have to go anywhere and there’s minimal damage. They can be rather beautiful when and if the sun comes out.
One ice storm a few years back I was able to pull ice molds of entire leaves off a Rhododendron. Really neat.
Capt Glen..i think I have the flight planning pretty well covered..thanks
i-ll probably prepare 9000 flight plans
in an average year….multiply that times 26 years.
I think Ill be ok.
Erik: Your phrase “minimal damage” eliminates a true ice storm. I would say you like a light glaze. You are correct that those can be very beautiful when the sun comes out.
A good day to look at the wind map.
http://hint.fm/wind/
So, as a lover of snow and someone who regards severe weather with some anxiety (especially post-derecho), this beautiful spring-like day in January felt a little ominous. I assume if the clouds tomorrow may not even support a thunderstorm, there is zero tornado threat, right? Gotta have a cell before it starts rotating, right? Right? I have a bit of a fearful fixation on tornadoes (the word “phobia” does come to mind)–please reassure me! Oh, and let it snow, baby. Let it snow.
David, were you not living in the area in March 93 or January 96? 3 foot of snow and huge drifts especially in 93! Man, would love to have another one of those babies! We are due!
Joe…
I can tell by what you say here that you are more than competent. You certainly don’t need my help.
Flight planning and “canning” the flight plans is just one little step in your job. Not to mention, weight & balance, fuel, weather, alternates, performance, MEL’s…I could go on. I miss the good ol’ days of having a Dispatcher to do 75% of a crew’s pre-flight planning. I’ll gladly take a 26 year veteran at the desk to “Patch” one of my flights any day if I were still in the Airline World. You guys are the unsung heroes in the 121 biz. Thank you. One of my favorite Dispatchers from my USlessAirways days always wore a T-shirt that said “Have you hugged your Dispatcher today?” She also had one that said “Got Dispatcher?”
In the Corporate world, we pretty much do it all with some help for weather but we mostly use the I-Pad now as our EFB and Dispatcher now.
Capt Glen…
Platitudes do not help your case..
Not in the least.
Stick to what you know and keep the ego in check
..Thats the best advice I can give.
I deal with it all the time..and I know
exactly where Im coming from.
Fools are made daily by believing their own hype.
Want examples??? I have many.