Record warmth this weekend; cold still coming
UPDATE 5:40 PM, 1/12: Roanoke’s official high of 73 and Blacksburg’s high of 71 have set records for Jan. 12, topping those listed below. It also appears Blacksburg’s temperature was the second warmest ever recorded in January, only exceeded by 73 on Jan. 30, 1975. Roanoke’s high is the warmest in January since 74 on Jan. 3, 2004. There’s a good chance of more records on Sunday, before rain arrives to hold temperatures down Monday-Tuesday — but still well above normal. END UPDATE
Milder air is moving in from the southwest, and will be advancing northeast at the higher elevations first and then working down into lower elevations. That’s why places like Bluefield and Hillsville are in the mid 50s on this Friday afternoon while Roanoke is clinging to the low 40s in the drizzly wedge of cold air. A result of this temperature inversion will be dense fog, and that’s why the National Weather Service in Blacksburg has posted a dense fog advisory for most of Southwest Virginia east of the I-77 corridor. Beware if traveling.
The warm air regime should be in full control by mid-morning Saturday, and that will lead to a weekend of potentially record-setting high temperatures. Below are the standing records for the next two days at Blacksburg and Roanoke, each one in jeopardy.
January 12 January 13 BLACKSBURG 67 (2005) 64 (2005) ROANOKE 71 (2005) 73 (1932)
The general idea on what the weather is going to do over the next 7-10 days is simple, but the specifics are complicated. It will get really warm this weekend, and then get cold next weekend — possibly the beginning of a very cold period. In between there will be a vigorous storm system that may bring a genuine soaking rain to our region. That’s now looking more like a Monday-Tuesday matter.
The cold air is coming. At first it will be sort of a slow drift downward toward near-normal temperatures (40s highs/20s lows, generally, this time of year for Southwest Virginia) as modified polar air behind the initial front oozes in Wednesday and Thursday. But there are lots of signals of much sharper pushes of Arctic air later, though timing, extent, duration and intensity have all been highly variable on the forecast models — not unusual when huge changes in weather patterns are afoot. Today’s European model (12Z) shows extremely cold air making a brief foray into Virginia — minus-18C at 850 millibars would translate to near zero Fahrenheit on some of our higher ridges around, and probably some single digits/teens at lower elevations — on Friday before moderating some next weekend — and then more cold shots arriving later. This particular run is probably overdone on the initial push of cold for Friday, but the larger picture the various recent versions of the Euro are setting up suggests a strong chance of a much colder pattern than we’ve seen developing for the central and eastern U.S. The Global Forecast System model has been more frequently showing a push of extreme cold after January 20. While specifics of the cold pattern ahead are not clear, confidence is growing that a below-normal temperature period is ahead, beginning late next week. Much less certain are the prospects for wintry precipitation. A disturbance working across northern Mexico and Texas late next week has some chance to help fire a storm system somewhere in the South that could throw some moisture up over the invading cold air near or over us late next week. It is possible though that the system will be crushed by a convergent upper-air pattern (wind vectors blowing into each other, rather than spreading out) as Arctic air pushes southward. So, for now, I’m not likely to go bonkers with the flakes on the snow meter for this coming week.
Meteorological winter — Dec. 1 to Feb. 28 — reaches its halfway point early in the coming week. Is it possible that this will be a winter of sharply different halves?
January 11, 2013 - 5:46 PM
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Snow Lover Bburg, I hope that you read this. Late in the previous thread I commented on your 9:24 comment …. which I enjoyed. I asked you a question in my comment about the big wet snow that caused the Kroger roof to collapse. I would very much like to see a reply from you.
Those of you who read this blog a lot know that on most of my work mornings I print out the TWC hourly forecast for the 24017 zip where I work (I would print out one from the NWS instead if they would put it in the same format).
Well, today that forecast laid an egg the size of a dinosaur egg. Basically said it wasn’t going to rain after 9 AM until shortly after noon. Well, it rained most of the morning on my route, and sometimes moderately. In fact, it did not rain much at all after my early lunch, and that was when the TWC forecast said it was very likely to rain. As the Soup Nazi would say, “NO SOUP FOR YOU, TWC!!!”
In traveling up the valley this morning temps varied from 38 to 46 on car thermometer with hit and miss rain showers . Return trim about the same but got foggy the closer we got to Roanoke and by the time we got up on the mountain could not see 5 feet in front of car. Nice long day trip of about 367 miles
Just added one line to post above to emphasize that the single 12Z run for Friday showing the super-extreme cold is unlikely to verify — but the bigger picture the Euro models have been setting up is for a much colder pattern ahead.
Well, I’ve been splitting and stacking our 2 damp loads of firewood, trying to get some of it dry enough to burn decently this winter. Had a fire going last night for a while, and it seemed to help…I was able to sustain the fire all evening, and the heat didn’t come on from the time I got home and started it, until I turned it on this morning as I got ready for work.
We got a little bit of rain, 0.04″, out of the clouds, drizzle, and light showers today. Still hovering in the 40′s, but I’m hoping for a quick warmup. I’m hoping to finish some needed outdoor work in the morning, and get some golf in for the afternoon…or Sunday, depending on how my time shapes up. I have to squeeze that in with at least a half-day at the office though…tight project deadlines and lack of a VPN connection for working from home have their occasional downsides.
Doug-the snow that caused the roof collapse in Beckley was the late Jan. 1998 storm, that dumped 20″ in Blacksburg, and a range of 2″-8″ in Roanoke, depending on elevation. That storm produced about 36″ up on Flat Top, near Beckley. And as most remember, that storm was a total nowcast situation, where the NWS just kept increasing snow totals throughout the day when they finally accepted the fact that the original call for rain was not correct, and the snow was going to stay snow!
KM-what is the potential date again for the “Crossgrove Major East Coast Storm”?
Quoting today’s forecast discussion from the second best source for regional weather information, Ray’s Weather: “We’ll be colder after Thursday, with plenty of snow making opportunities, not all “man-made.” Pretty strong signal from one of the most level headed forecasters in the Southern Appalachian region.
Jan. 17-22 were the dates Cosgrove mentioned. Right now I would think it might actually be better toward the latter part of that period, if not a little after, provided some kind of upper-air energy can round that growing trough in central/eastern U.S.
Not writing off next Friday potential just yet. Seen plenty of those seemingly suppressed southern waves fade out in the mid-range only to perk back up within 48-72 hours and turn into sizable events. May have a little better chance down Ray’s way than up here.
So Kevin…the Friday (18th) potential is different than the Cosgrove potential? Two potentials in one week (7 days)? What will Jared and Scott do? Alright calm down the key word is potential. But seriously, we’re talking different systems?
Jan. 18th is something that is actually blinking in and out of the models, a piece of energy cutting through the south. The second thing I mentioned is just something I’m surmising based on how the pattern MAY set up. Would not call that even a “potential” storm yet.
And on that note — with the full disclaimer that this is 16 days out on the 18Z GFS, and almost certainly won’t come to pass like this — here is by far the most drool-worthy model image for SW Virginia snow fans I’ve seen all winter, possibly excluding the DGEX model about 6 days before Superstorm Sandy (which was actually October, not winter).
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/18/gfs_namer_384_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
All you need to know is behind the blue lines is cold and the dark green and blue colors are precipitation.
Blacksburg Mike, I found a brief description of the Kroger roof. Strangely, it is from a Seattle Times website that I found via a Google search. The article talks a lot about what was happening in both Virginia and WV in the week/10 days leading up to February 6, 1998. I remember that time. Boy, did it ever POUR here in Roanoke for the week of January 31-Feb. 4, with the ice storm about the 3rd or 4th that basically did not impact the Star City but wreaked major havoc in the Bent Mountain area and the area along the BRP above Buchanan. Article describes a train with three locomotives plunging off a rain-weakened bridge over the Maury River in Glasgow, VA.
Link: let’s try http://www.community.seattletimes.nwsource.com/archive/?date=19980206&slug=2732927
Yeah, I know, link did not work.
You would have to show that model for the 27th, Kevin, wouldn’t you?? :>) :>) :>) We all realize that if there is no snow between now and the end of the month in either Stanardsville (Greene County) or Fincastle (your home town, right, Scott S?), the wailing and moaning are going to be even worse than ever here.
On the other hand, if one or both of those spots gets an 8+-incher, the celebrating will be deafening, too.
Here is what Doug was trying to link to about 1998:
http://tinyurl.com/ad27qeb
I’m on the hook for a big Monday, January 21st event. I ain’t giving up until the “Plus size lady” is warbling. At least we postal employees get that day off ….. federal holiday.
AO, NAO and PNA outlooks. Ensemble outlooks first, then the GFS outlooks.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index /ao_index_ensm.shtml
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index /ao_index_mrf.shtml
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm.shtml
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna_index_ensm.shtml
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna_index_mrf.shtml
I just don’t remember that January 1998 storm in Giles. I should have remembered a snow with that big of an accumulation. Did Giles get skipped over in that event?
It was very elevation dependent. I’ve been told even some spots that got big amounts around the New River Valley had a lot of compaction and some mixed-in rain toward the end. If you lived close to the river it might not have registered in your memory banks as much as it would have at higher elevations.
Good night all…
Finally updated QWC blog and will do more updates this weekend.
More Saturday…
http://www.quagmireweathercentral.webs.com
We had 12″ here in the Chapel that 1998 storm. Rain and snow and then turned to all snow. Broke trees, power lines and put out power for one week. Pretty rough time.
Finally home from Austin/Charlotte after a cancelled flight to ROA due to fog forced myself and a motley crew of others needing to get to Roanoke/Hokieburg to drive a rental car. Thanks KM for confirming that it would have been pointless to wait for the 1030p flight out as all were cancelled later.
IF I’m remembering right – - I remember that 98 storm well. Here’s why:
I awoke around 5/6 am to a complete snow covered ground at my house in between Hillsville/Fancy Gap at about 2800′. Estimated it was 3-4″. Woke up around 11 that morning (was homeschooled til 6th grade) and there was no snow and it was raining. Temps had warmed up a ton. I’m talkin 50′s.
However, that day went to a friends who lives out on the Floyd/Carroll line a little further up, right at Buffalo Mountain. THEY still had several inches, though it was melting. They reported over a foot of snow in that event before it started melting.
Don’t know if this storm IS the storm ya’ll are talking about but it does stick out in my memory – - always has – - because I’ve never seen anything like it – - snow so hard and melt so fast and be so elevation dependent as this was.
There was a storm similar in the early 2000′s on April Fools Day (Remember this was my best friends 15th birthday party the day before, the 31st) where we received about 13″ of snow in 12 hours. Absolutely POURED. THE NIGHT BEFORE – - the only news station even mentioning accumulations of snow was WXII out of Winston Salem. Heck it was in the 70′s the day before. Too young to remember the setup (wanna help me out Kevin?) but woke up that AM around 4 to Thunder Snow and an absolute deluge of snow. Poured snow til around 1 that afternoon. Then the sun came out – - and about 6″ of what had fallen had melted by 6pm that evening.
Just checked with mom – - (Yes I’m a Mama’s Boy) and she cleared it up. She has pictures dated from that storm of me and my brother tunneling in what I would estimate from these pics about 20″ of snow fell in that storm.
Which makes my above comment wrong – - the first storm I described IS NOT the 98 storm. Matter of fact the friends we were seeing – - we didn’t get to know until the early 2000′s. That one ring any bells, Kevin?
It was 40.5* at 11:30 here, but has zoomed all the way up to the balmy temp of …. 42.5* at 5:45. So where is the warm air advection? One location is Bent Mountain …. the three sites up there on Weather Underground are two at 57* and Slings Gap at 58.3*. As they yell (or at least used to yell) on The Price Is Right ….. “Come On Down!!” I am wearing a short-sleeved postal shirt in anticipation of temps near 60* by noon.
Fog situation is a lot better here. Temp has edged up to 43.5*
51 at 6:30 am – Wow!
OK, that explains why the storm didn’t register to me since I lived down in Pembroke. Still don’t remember 20 inches snow in Blacksburg, was still in school at tech at the time. Oh well, any hints of a storm next weekend on any of the weather models? Sure hope we can get at least an inch of rain out of this storm early next week. You know its bad when the ponds at the golf course are 2 foot below normal at the golf course in January
Kevin, with respect to the imminent storm on the 26th. What time will it start snowing in eastern Greene County and how much accumulation can we expect?
In all seriousness, it’s good to see some winter temps on the horizon. The fog is thick as frozen potato soup here in Greene. Looking forward to getting stuff done outside and grilling tonight. Might as well make the most of it. Glad we don’t have a ski trip planned for this weekend.
Since physics generally rules the world we live in, do you think weather patterns follow the “for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction” theory? It seems that when we have a big warm up in winter it is generally followed by a big cool down and usually it comes a week later. Maybe in the big framework of things the warming pattern (over the past few thousand years) we are in is simply the equal and opposite reaction from the ice age.
Jared-the NWS ranks 1/28/98 as the single snowiest day in Blacksubrg history with 20.4″. I remember it very well, almost like it was yesterday. Incredible snowfall with 20″ plus in and around town, but only about 8″ seven miles west of town near the New River. I disagree that in reality it was Blacksburg’s snowiest day though, as I am certain 3/13/93 and/or 3/14/93 wer,e but the NWS records only indicate a total of 18″ for those two days. That is WRONG, there was 32″ total in Blacksubrg from the March ’93 storm. Robin Reed reported 32″ in Blacksburg on the WDBJ evening news the evening of 3/14/93 and commented that it was double Roanoke’s amount of 16″. Maybe one day the NWS will adjust the totals retroactively. Just goes to show that the NWS records when it comes to snowfall need to be taken with a grain of salt.
I don’t post here often, but I had to comment on the January 27,1998 storm because as a snowfan it was so dissappointing for me here in Bedford.
That storm starting as snow here but really never accumulated before changing to rain around noon. However less than 10 miles west of the
City it kept snowing until about 5:00 pm. The rain/snow line set up
just before you get to Montvale in western Bedford county. You would
go from heavy rain with no accumulation to Heavy snow and snow covered
roads almost instantly driving west on route 460.
70.7* at 10:30 AM no less. Now that’s doing business. My way!!!
Had a low of 38 this morning.Its still foggy here and the temp is up to 47.Going to visit my parents in Manassas.Will check out the blog later when i get home.Have a great day all.
The wedge is hanging tough here. Still 50 on the East side of the Blue Ridge.
It’s a dampish 61 here in Hokieburg. Sun is trying poke out now and then. I believe it is cooler in the house than the outside so I opened some windows!
On snow storms, I went to my family photo collection since snowstorms always seem to offer the excuse to do some photos and I have none of the 1-27-98 storm. Some of the late Dec. 1997 snow but not of the other. I do have photos of the 1-7-96 storm – showing a yardstick in the yard measuring 22″. I remember there was so much snow that we were able to mound it up and dig it out for a snow house for my boys, just like the ones the Bobbsey Twins did in one of their books (that is certainly dating me!) From that storm, I have a photo titled “car lumps” because it shows a row of cars in our townhouse COMPLETELY covered in snow except for the side mirrors poking out. That may have been a multiple-day event snow too.
I agree BBurg Mike that the ’93 storm was nearly 3 FEET no matter what NWS records say. We were living in an apt complex then and after we shoveled out our spot we spray painted the wall of snow on the front of the spot with the apt # as there were people who would just take the spot. People in Chicago protect their spots on the street with patio furniture in big snows but I understand that after you go to the effort to dig out your spot.
I think those of us who want snow with our cold weather are going to be very disappointed.
Kevin: I loved the map you linked to for the late January storm. Yes, I am a snow lover and I am drooling. However, I am planning to go to Richmond that weekend so I will be watching it closely. If that map comes true I likely will not be going anywhere. Let it snow!
A few renegade rain showers passing through. Stink bugs have come out of hiding so have been out knocking them off of the side of the house and into soapy water. Temps here are around 72!
In response to thread 10..I think…Scott will be just fine without snow, I can’t speak for Jared but I’m sure he’ll be alright too. I don’t care anymore….if it snows it snows and if not, no worries. We do need the rain though. It is only 58.5 here in Fincastle at 2PM, the atomic clock must be off, because the airport is 67 and supposed to get to 70 today iasn’t it. Bring on the heat!!! Loving it!!!
Incredible 75 degrees in my Hokieburg backyard. All windows open. Removed 3 stink bugs from inside. DC – does soapy water kill them?
Brandon R – we may not get snow, but we can at least hope for some 1985 style cold. I agree though, intense arctic outbreaks almost NEVER lead to big snows in the mid-Atlantic, because the fronts shunt everything too far east and out to sea.
Doug – It would seem that you have beaten me to the punch. I saw your earlier post and did a little online research to make sure I was remembering that storm correctly. I found the same Seattle Times article and was getting ready to paste the link when I saw your post. I tried the Beckley Register Herald first, but it doesn’t look like their online archives go back that far.
One more note about that storm in ’98: The snow was so dense with moisture that, when you looked into a sidecut from a snowplow, the snow was blue. It was the same kind of blue that you see in glaciers. Very cool.
Mid 70′s here in Woodlawn this afternoon…on call and very busy since it is such a beautiful day! More people out and about = dog fights, run-ins with cars,etc…give me snow or rain or cold when I’m on call anytime!!
I always blame myself for the seeming lack of big snow in Roanoke. When my husband and I moved down in ’96, we traded in my small pickup for a 4-wheel drive, since we knew this area had been seeing some pretty decent snow. And just how often have I really needed it since then? Yeahhhh… How ironic, for such a diehard snow lover as myself….
So much for the 70 degrees in my neck of the woods in Goochland County.
Still holding on 54 degrees with an easterly breeze and low overcast.
The warm front is about 25 miles to my west. Should hit 70+ for most of the Mid-Atlantic Sunday.
I’m updating QWC as I speak. As for the snow potential, there won’t be any per se “BIG UN” but the Lake Effect could be HISTORIC! If the Lake Effect cranks up, areas like Snowshoe, Canaan, Timberline, Wisp, Beech & Sugar in NC and the Appalachians from NC north could see very significant snow showers and squalls.
Also, I’m keeping my eye on a potential hint for something around the 22nd as in a possible coastal event. Way to soon to tell but it’s there.
http://www.quagmireweathercentral.webs.com
72 at the airports in Roanoke and Blacksburg on the hour (4 p.m.) That appears to have topped Roanoke’s record high for the date (72, set in 2005), and even allowing for the typical subtraction of a couple of degrees between Blacksburg’s airport and the nearby weather service, is likely to have topped the record at Blacksburg (67, also set in 2005) as well.
Hokie Trax – yes, dropping the stink bugs into a container of soapy water will kill them.
Was a good day to be outside. Man of the House was able to cut up some big limbs that came down with the ice storm and then worked on a tree from the derecho – next year’s firewood.
If anyone has been out in the woods – be sure to check yourself for ticks. They are still out and about.
Often the best shots at a larger winter storm are near the front and back ends of a major pattern change. I would keep an eye on the 1/22-1/26 range. This is near the front end of the possible extreme Arctic invasion (before someone suggests otherwise, that’s not a push-back — initial cold late next week has always been expected to be highly modified). GFS keeps wanting to blow something up in that time frame. It’s usually true though in our neck of the woods that if we get into an extreme Arctic cold spell, snow is typically limited to light amounts with Alberta clippers and weak overrunning events, as the main storm track is shunted south.
Blacksburg Mike: Maybe we’ll get an overachieving Alberta clipper or something.
The pattern shift is on TV right now at the NFL playoff game in Denver between the Denver Broncos and Baltimore Ravens. It was -12 in Denver this morning, and has “warmed” into the low-mid teens for this game. Clear skies and dry, no snow.
That cold invading the West will reach us mid-late next week in a very modified form. It’s the pushes behind it that will concern us for extreme cold the following week. Both the Euro and GFS want to take the polar vortex right into the Great Lakes the week after next. Would be brutal cold for most of the nation east of the Rockies if that transpires.
It did warm up to +13 for kickoff! That cold is coming our way folks and it will get colder. Parts of Western VA will easily see lows well below zero F.
As to KM’s #50 comment, I mention the 22nd as having some hint of a potential on QWC…Go Broncs!
Rode my motorcycle from Roanoke down the Parkway South this morning. The higher in elevation I climbed the warmer it got. Also ran into scattered rain showers between Poor Mtn. and Tuggles Gap. The ride back was beautiful. This warm weather is going to really spoil me. But, I’m ready for some snow!!!
I see where ROA topped out at 72 while CHO only made it to 56.
Believe it or not but we have snow (mixed with rain) in the forecast Monday night through Wednesday. Don’t see it happening but who knows.
Updated blog entry above to note record highs today at Roanoke and Blacksburg.
John: Some chance cold catches up to backside of rain shield Tuesday-Wednesday, especially north/west of our region. Will discuss that more on Sunday night, when I’ll post my next blog entry looking at rain event ahead.
John from R’ville…
that is a very valid possibility. I’m starting to think the Mid-Atlantic could see moderate snow on the 16th as the front passes thru on the back end…maybe a quick couple of inches before the cold hits. The real cold that is. Also, Jared French and Scott Saunders…January 22-23 is starting look better for snow potential as well around the 26-27th.
If anyone is thinking about going to Snowshoe, they’ll get a major dumping from the Lake Effect but it will the coldest temps in over 25+ years.
Quags – you said “well below zero” for western VA coming up. You thinking we flirt with our all time record lows (-18 in Blacksburg)? Might as well just put it out there. Or, will this not really compare to 1985?
Folks, today and it looks like tomorrow will be two days you might want to mark down in your weather log. Saw 79* a little after 4 PM today. And tomorry will be a great time to do my once every 4 year yard pluggin. Don’t want to get carried away you know.
looking forward to a soaking rain before we see this cold. We need the rain bad and the snow lover in me is starting to get excited too! Looking forward some wet weather to aid the drought!
The possible Jan. 18 or so snow event isn’t dead yet, either — 18Z GFS has it, heavier than any previous run. It’s blinking in and out on the Euro. Models struggling to pick up that southern wave late next week.
I don’t think the “real cold” gets here before the 21st, though. The first wave of cold looks to modify quite a bit — will get us back to near normal after this weekend’s blowtorch. It’s the following waves of cold that look to lay the hammer down.
For my part, I would be surprised if we reach 1985 levels of cold, but not surprised at all if there are below-zero temperatures in western Virginia at some point before the month is out.
John From Salem. The higher I got, the warmer it was. And that was from daylight on. Had twenty-eleven drops here this afternoon.
I’m changing my mind, I think I will update the blog with a new entry later tonight. There’s just too many balls in the air right now with the weather.
Hokieburg Mike:
It is very possible that many areas in the east will break many records including Hokieburg but it’s too soon to tell if this is like 85 as Kevin says. Below Zero…yes…-18…we shall see.
Also the Saturday 12Z Euro Ensemble Mean is also on board with the very cold but supresses the cold way down to the Gulf Coast on the 22nd. After that things are beginning to set up for something to possibly form in the Gulf. Will update QWC between games
Too many balls? Like in Denver? lol…
For 1/22/13, the NWS has a low of 21* for Snowshoe on Tues. night
wd, did you do one of my typical errors, a “senior moment?” Did you mean 21* below zero for Snowshoe, or only +21*??
I was confused because I can’t find where the NWS issues location-specific forecasts beyond 7 days. TWC, Accuweather do. Or did you mean Tuesday 1/15/13?