Late Sunday/early Monday may turn icy in SW Virginia
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM MONDAY FOR MOST OF WESTERN AN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA, EXCEPT WEST OF I-77
When warm southwesterly winds begin to take control from an Arctic air mass, a common result is a period of freezing rain. That is what Southwest Virginia may be facing late Sunday and Monday, as Gulf of Mexico moisture, pulled northeast by a passing upper-level disturbance and increasing southwesterly wind flow above the surface, overrides cold air at the surface banked against the Appalachians. A period of freezing rain will be possible late Sunday and early Monday, as temperatures at the surface may be in the upper 20s and low 30s in most or all of the region while layers aloft warm above freezing. This will allow precipitation to fall all the way to the surface as rain (maybe a period of sleet to begin) and then freeze on objects near ground level. Because we have been cold for many days and there have been two snowfalls (I’ve had snow cover on my yard for 9 consecutive days now, just a few hundred feet above and a couple miles south of Roanoke), the ground will be cold enough that the potential for icy streets and sidewalks will be high if the freezing rain develops. As of Saturday evening, large enough amounts for widespread power outages are not expected. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is, as of Saturday evening, giving mid-range (near 50 percent) chances of at least .01 of ice developing. You can link here for the latest ice forecasts from the HPC (potentially major ice storm in the Upper Midwest) and here for latest updates and possible advisories from the National Weather Service in Blacksburg.
As for the week ahead … this is going to be a truly volatile week of weather nationally, with a large-scale warmup (60s locally on Tuesday) followed by a strong Arctic cold front. Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes will be a good bet in the Mississippi and Tennessee river valleys. Our region may be headed for an inch or more of rainfall with the midweek frontal passage. There may be a few-days window as February begins that would support development of a winter storm in the South and East, though there are no obvious indications yet that this will occur. As I’ve said before, those who want the weather to get cold and stay that way and those who want it to get warm and stay that way are all out of luck, as it appears we’re headed into a roller-coaster pattern for at least the next couple of weeks with up and down shifts in temperature and potential large-scale storms that will deliver severe storms, heavy rain, ice, snow and wind to large sections of the nation.
January 26, 2013 - 8:16 PM
RSS feed 
Happy New Year Kevin! Hope you enjoyed your day. You SURE deserve it.What do you think the chances are for ice – - freezing rain for the Mon. am commute?
http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-houston/larry-cosgrove
“The WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, in two parts, explores a very volatile
pattern through the lower 48 states between now and mid-February. The
near-term warm-up across the eastern half of the nation will prove to
be short-lived, with Arctic air returning at midweek. There is a
threat for severe weather from parts of Texas into the Ohio Valley
Tuesday into Wednesday, with a potential sleet/freezing rain to snow
scenario with wave cyclogenesis in Appalachia and the interior
Northeast on Wednesday night and Thursday.
“Also keep your eyes on the disturbances in the Pacific Ocean and
possible interaction with the healthy Arctic vortex in the vicinity of
Hudson Bay. It is not at all impossible that we could see a truly
major winter storm arise in the southern and eastern U.S.; look at
what is happening near Japan and over the northern Atlantic Ocean. I
also take a look at the February forecast pattern.
“Lots of writing in two parts and two slideshows….
Best Regards,
Larry Cosgrove”
In regard to Kevins statement of volatile weather
moving east..I have testament to that this evening.
737 travelling from Hayden Colorado (seasonal ski service),
climbed through routine snow showers east of Colorado and into
plains… cloud to cloud lightning hit the airplane.
This is fairly routine during summer..but quite rare this time of year
especially since there was extremely low convection.
Airplane was grounded overnight. The strike hit just in front of the
windscreen on the radome.
Received 2.5 inches of snow, very surprising at my location in the Ellett Valley…Blacksburg received only 2 inches! This is one of the few times where I think I have received more than Blacksburg. That with the 5.3 inches last week and the 0.2 on Dec 26 brings my house total up to 8.0 inches for the season. Blacksburg is at 11.2 inches I believe. I’m hoping for more! But already this winter has had more snow than last winter at this point and in totality so I’m pretty happy. I’m also pretty happy that I’ll be able to play tennis or golf on Tuesday and then possibly have more snow and definite cold next week! Yes!
Yes Kevin, I was wondering how bad the roads could get come Monday around 8 or 9 AM?
To back up my last statement, even though being directly east of Blacksburg, there was a snow band that redeveloped seemingly right over the Country Club on radar returns that missed Blacksburg. That might’ve been the extra 0.5 inches. Whenever I do measurements, it is rarely off my mailbox since the mailbox is towered around by trees which skew results. So I either use the flat areas on my driveway or the small fringe of the exposed parts of the patio (also flat).
So ecstatic that the drought has been eradicated temporarily! I’m very glad that there might be potential flooding issues. I usually welcome more moisture anytime when I’m not doing outdoor activities and I’d certainly rather have excess moisture and flooding as opposed to droughts and its sluggish effects on weather.
Was in C-ville today…a board meeting I had to attend except it had been cancelled from the weather but I wasn’t on the email distribution list. So…I’m already there and decide to go to Monticello since I hadn’t been in many years. No crowds which was nice. I did the Mulberry Row tour and FROZE even though I had boots on, gloves, etc. But it was worth it.
John: There will likely be at least patchy ice on Monday AM, but probably not past about mid-morning. The preceding conditions of the cold surface increase the chances of getting ice to freeze on streets, though some sunshine Sunday following today’s will allow asphalt and concrete to absorb solar radiation, too. Could become truly a skating rink in some of our region’s typically colder locations if this freezing rain develops.
Johnny: Glad to see Larry Cosgrove landed on the same term “volatile” to describe this weather pattern we’re entering. There’s going to be lots of weather — big weather — in the U.S. the next couple of weeks. And we’re going to get some of it. What, exactly, that is, we’ll keep a close eye on in the days ahead as it develops.
Joe: Thanks for the unusual report to preview the developing weather extremes.
10 this morning up here at the Doppler and no wind. I hope there is a lot of melting going on between now and any midweek rain because I am still snow covered here. Heavy rain on top of snow will probably mean flooding.
VDOT just plowed my road late yesterday afternoon. We have been throwing ashes on our driveway in hopes of the dark attracting the sun more and doing some melting. Still using 4 wheel drive to get in and out around here.
Please note the Storm Prediction Center is highlighting our region for Wednesday for the potential of damaging winds with a squall line.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/
Only dropped to 22 here in Goodview, 17 in Jordantown. Our roads finally melted yesterday (.10 melted in the ol rain bucket). After 15 years of gravel driveway we finally had it paved last spring. It’s been wonderful but as I can attest to last night, now we have to watch out for black ice
Elongated area of low pressure develops late Tue this week
from East Tx to N Ill/Ind…tight gradient develops with it
on the lee side..mid to late morn..early afternoon is th timeframe
for this system to begin to affect ROA Valley.
Rain most of the day Wed..changing over to snow late Wed or early Thursday…seperate system develops quickly beind this and more snow psbl on Fri for much of the day…. Thats what I make of the models anyway…jy
and be prepared for another shot on Tue Wed..
Also noting that several models are swinging some energy around the newly established trough in the Friday-Sunday period. Some trigger some snow on us. This is the potential Feb. 1-2 winter storm we have talked about. Let’s stress the word POTENTIAL. May very well be a fairly minor deal passing through and then strengthen offshore in the Atlantic.
So this week could go like this: freezing rain Monday morning, 60s-low 70s Tuesday, heavy rain and squall line with damaging winds Wednesday, windy cold with upslope snow showers Thursday, and then, maybe, a chance of snow in the Friday-Sunday period.
No snow meter this week Kevin
Since freezing rain is forecast here’s a couple of current pavement surface and base temps. I’ll try to remember to post the same spots again tonight to see how much warmer they are.
NBL of I-581 @ MM 5.5 Observation @ 01.27.2013 08:41 AM Surface T 27.5º
Base T 41.9º
I-77 MM 16.9 (near me) Observation @ 01.27.2013 08:30 AM Surface T 21.7º Base T 31.1º
These temps are on 4 lane road with no tree cover. Primary and secondary roads will have many spots that the sun doesn’t hit and will not warm up as much as open heavily traveled roads.
Joe as Kevin said thanks for the info you provide, interesting indeed.
Kevin: Snow meter posts Monday AM. It will be another hard one owing to yet another fuzzy late-week situation. Why can’t I ever get a more solid Monday-Tuesday snow chance?
Joe: More than just an active week of weather, huh? A hyperactive week.
Johnny, what’s the difference between surface temps & base temps?
Just looked at the GFS and its not going to be boring. I’ve had more wind damage in the last 6 months than in the last several years, not looking forward to this week.
Also I predict orange juice futures to gap open higher on 02/11/13 due to freezing temps in Florida if GFS is right that far out.
What are some good long range weather model websites to use? Thanks..
Yes Kevin it looks like it’s going to be another tough week predicting the weather it also looks like it’s gonna be a rough week weather wise as well ….but thats why we respect the weather
Look who made it back home to Ol’ Virginnie! Got back from Lake Tahoe Saturday afternoon afternoon. Eastbound trip uneventfull with lots of tailwind. Thank you Delta for actually having a better schedule and lower fares from out of Reagan National. Well worth the 1.5 hour drive from Goochland & Free Parking (still nice to have connections in DCA).
Now that I have my skiing fix out of my system, I’ll update QWC finally.
Lots to talk about and pix to share from Heavenly.
FYI, Joe…flew on 737-800s from KRNO-KSLC-KDCA Saturday, albeit the competing carrier out of Hotlanta…No Lightning Strikes!
Good to be home
P.S. Thanks to Johnny from KHLX for the photos on QWC.
Hopefully this upcoming stretch of active weather won’t give us heavy rain as the ground is frozen or snow covered. There won’t be much if any absorption and it definitely won’t take much to get the creeks and rivers up. Plus SML is full so the Roanoke and Blackwater rivers won’t be able to back up as much.
This is sort of non weather related but speaking of Smith Mt Lake, it is not close to freezing (even in the coves) and that is due to its annual process of “turning over”. This involves a cold layer of water at the top sinking to the bottom of the lake. This brings relatively warmer water to the top along with all the silt that was laying on the bottom of the upper portions of the lake. Thus resulting in no ice and very brown water. A few more weeks of cold temps and ice will start forming.
I would go 4 flakes on the old snow meter again this week. That seems to be working out well for everyone but the dreaded “snow haters”. If you ever go 5 or more look out, the “big one” must be coming. Whatever we get, it looks like a very interesting weather week ahead.
Todd the base temp is measured at a depth of about 2 1/2″ if my memory is right. Surface sensor measures all kind of stuff. The link below explains better than my memory.
http://www.vaisala.com/en/roads/products/roadweathersensors/Pages/DRS511.aspx
John the recent rain/snow only raised SML levels for a day or two. AEP let the water out at the damn to generate electricity. Water levels have been so low recently that AEP was forced to lower the release amounts. As soon as levels reached ‘full pond’ they let it out. Lake levels are only slightly higher than they where before all the moisture. Plenty of room to take water from streams, rivers, etc.
Somebody posted about robins a couple of days ago. Just saw about a dozen in the back yard.
Kevin, looks like this winter may only going give us weekend snow opportunities. Usually, these things are 7 days apart it seems. As for rain, we can use all we can get as long as it doesn’t come as a gully washer.
Kevin…yes, hyper for sure
..like 3 times a week service
on the train of white fluffy love.
One more bit…and im off to work..
There may be a treat for the patient
down the snowtrain trail around the 9-10
Feb..if..and a big IF..models hold up
SWVA may get a more typical Miller A
visitation..as of now its projected
to have plenty of moisture to work with..
but for now it looks like mostly rain…
Happy days Snowhoppa-s
Just returned from a weekend in Richmond. Drove up in snow the entire way on Friday and about 30 miles before I got there the snow started mixing with sleet. The roads were covered and in most places I could not see the lane lines. Not a fun drive! Driving back this morning was so much easier and more pleasant. Now we just need to get ready for a wild weather week.
Steve, the level at 12:05 PM today shows 794.46′. Full pond is 795′.
Here’s the link to AEP SML level.
http://www.aep.com/environment/conservation/hydro/
HPC just increased our .01 ice accumulation chances.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/prb_24hicez_ge.01_2013012712f024.gif
“Stretch of active weather” as John of R-ville calls it – wondering what Feb. 7 – 10 looks like. That’s the date of the conference I take my students to, the same one that was in mid-late February last year in AL where the return day was the snow event here and we left early and made our way through TN rather than Fancy Gap, thanks to blog advice. This year it is in ATL. Shorter drive but earlier so I’m watchful.
I meant to add in my post last night on the visit to C-ville – snow got thinner and thinner on my drive east. Monticello did not get snow on Friday when we did. The tour guides said the snow they had was left from the previous week.
Thanks Johnny.
12z Nam and 12z Gfs have slightly increased ice accumulation totals compared to their 6z counterparts
6z Nam:http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=VA&stn=KROA&model=nam&time=2013012706&field=prec
6z Gfs:http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=VA&stn=KROA&model=gfs&time=2013012706&field=prec
12z Nam:http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=VA&stn=KROA&model=nam&time=2013012712&field=prec
12z Gfs:http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=VA&stn=KROA&model=gfs&time=2013012712&field=prec
During the last event, Charlotte got freezing rain. They didn’t get a ton of it, but it was enough to cause hundreds of accidents. At one point the police were overwhelmed with calls regarding overturned vehicles on the interstates and highways.
My point? Don’t drive if you don’t have to.
Temperatures have risen to 43 here at the Chapel today and clouds have overtaken the sun. Church was a challenge with the bulk of the parking lot still under 1′ of frozen sleet and crunch. Got in and out with no falls. No ice expected here tonight. We are to be in mid 30′s. Warm rain on the way with snow predicted Thurs – Weekend. First of all upslope variety and then the more serious potential storm. Enjoy the thaw while it lasts.
One thing we have going for us with the freezing rain tomorrow is the fact most roads were heavily brined before Fridays snow. This hasn’t been the case for the other snows. While a lot has washed off, enough will remain to make a small difference. Roads that weren’t brined, were treated later due to the nature of the snow and temps. The fact that the temps are supposed to hold in the upper 20′s tonight will help matters also. Plus salt will be effective tonight, with a liberal dose of gravel for traction. Also, bridges and overpasses were especially treated heavy. It all helps.
Currently 32, cloudy and breeze out of the south/southeast up here near the Doppler. We may have hit 34 for a bit earlier this afternoon. Cooking, baking and filling up the water jugs – in case we lose power with this next storm.
Our road is one of those secondary ones that sees very little traffic and it is gravel. There are spots that are still snow packed and lots of places that are still frozen. We still are using 4 wheel drive to get up our drive.
Freezing rain and winter weather advisories now cover all of western and central Virginia along/east of I-77 and as far east as Richmond. Also extended far into North Carolina.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/emer/emer.php
Right now, I’m leaning against the late-week disturbance becoming a winter storm because it appears it will become crushed or weakened as high pressure sinks southward. The window for a possible winter storm event, though, continues for several days into the early to middle part of next week, and there are some other disturbances that could pull the trigger on one. And it looks like the next 2 weeks,at least, are full of ups and downs and storminess.
I checked the NWS forecast discussion, and they are not currently mentioning the possibility of a winter storm next weekend. I haven’t had time to check the models yet. Perhaps this may be one of those times where the potential is there but it doesn’t show up on the models until mid-week?
Kevin responded to my thought before I even posted it.
WOW.
Think 10 has the three degree guarentee. They would have lost on da Knob today. 36* for only 5 minutes.
I’m that tuned in to my audience, Brandon.
All of that said … it is something to keep an eye on, I’ve seen plenty of disturbances like this come back to life after the models want to crush them 3-7 days out. Even Jan. 17 was a little like that. This one doesn’t look as vigorous and the pattern not as conducive as that did, though. And like I said, there are other potential disturbances behind it for several days after that could kick up something as the cold air is reinforced a couple of times.
This midweek storm, are we looking at tree downing kind of winds? Not looking forward to that. With the ground wet and trees weakened by the Jan 17 snow it could get ugly.
I just looked at the NWS forecast for Roanoke and they have introduced the possibility of snow showers for Friday and Friday night. I know that’s 5 days off and snow showers aren’t generally a big storm, but they usually start out conservative. this last storm that gave us 1.5″ of snow they did something they usually don’t do…they said 100% chance of SOLID SNOW days in advance and of course only precipitated a paltry amount!
There are two different issues with wind at midweek, Tina. One would be the winds with the storm system/frontal passage itself. That could mean strong SE winds in part of the I-77 corridor/SE WVa as the storm approaches and strong NW winds after it passes for most of the rest of our region. The second is the possibility that the squall line (may or may not contain thunder) pulls down strong winds aloft as it moves through ahead of the front. Either would have potential of 50 mph+ gusts.
Right now, seems likely to be a sporadic wind event rather than widespread. But you’re right, with wet ground, there would be potential for tree damage and trees into power lines, but likely not nearly on the scale of the Jan. 17 wet snowstorm or the June 29 derecho.
The chance of snow showers Friday may relate to the disturbance I’ve been talking about or to some weak clipper type disturbances behind the cold front. From about Friday out 5-7 days maybe more is a window when we will have a chance for a winter weather event of some sort (maybe more than 1) with cold air in place and some tendency for disturbances to undercut the cold air mass to the south.
Funny how we were all hoping for a pattern change and talking about the stratospheric warming event, and then it all happened right before our eyes with last weeks rain storm ending in snow that pretty much ended the drought and changed the pattern. Just a moment in retrospect. Sometimes it happens and we don’t fully realize it.
I didn’t think it would be on par with the June 29 derecho. We’ve been lucky with the last few tree downing events, thank goodness! I just don’t like wind…Ok, I take that back, I like wind (I’m fascinated by hurricanes, tornadoes, and things like derechos) just not when it’s bringing trees down and destroying things. Maybe I should say I have a healthy respect and fascination for wind! But I tell you, we have had more wind events since moving to VA than we ever had living in hurricane alley down in Florida!
The moon rise tonight over the Blue Ridge is a creepy red color!!!
Tonight’s ice event looks a lot worse on radar than I expected.
thundersnow just west of Chicago…many cancellations…but freezing precip has stopped for now…looks like all liquid from now..thank goodness.
Slippery runways and 15 knot crosswinds are not a good mix.
Kevin, would you think that the freezing rain will have any effect on schools in the Roanoke area?
Blossom: I’m not one that can answer that. I would expect there will be delays and cancellations in the region Monday. A judgment call on each school district’s part, based on how things are in the monring.
Henry: One blessing for our region is that most of that precipitation will go north of us. But there are indeed some healthy echoes in Kentucky and Tennessee that will drag through here later tonight.
Road temp update
I-77 MM 16.9 Observation @ 01.27.2013 07:50 PM Surface T 32.7 Base T 31.1 Air temp 29.7
I- 581 MM 5.5 Observation @ 01.27.2013 07:41 PM Surface T 35.4 Base T 41.9 Air temp 32.7
Route 100 @ Dublin Airport Observation @ 01.27.2013 07:40 PM Surface T 35.4
Base T 34.5 Air temp 32.2
Captn Quags, are you aware your website is not working again, or it could just be my machine, those gremlins in the machinery again.
Kevin, I’m sure you already know, but just wanted to remind you again, that you are really appreciated. You sure do keep busy. Thanks for your hard work.
Trevar
Just checked Captn Quags site. It is working on my machine. Must be those gremlins after you!!
Trevar…
Try it now…I was updating and had it down temporarily. Sorry.
If it still doesn’t work, let me know.
I am only getting the home, links and contact us tabs to work. Is that the website or my browser?
Schools are 2 hours late here in the morning
So now the big storm that was supposed to be on the 1st or 2nd is being pushed back to the 5th and 6th? I’ve seen this movie before, but hey if there is a storm it will bypass Greene! Just talking to the local weather Guy how they missed last 2 storms and the one they weren’t calling for we got a couple inches. Needless to say I was giving him a hard time.
Went across “da Knob” on Saturday wd. Thought of you and wondered how hard your wood stove might be working. My hubby’s idea of fun is apparently seeing how much he can scare me LOL. He did a fine job of it when we started coming up the Knob from the Salem side. Had to put it in 4WD and keep chugging along.
Like Kevin, I have had snow cover on about 60% of my yard for 9 days now. I have a hill in the back that only gets morning sun and the snow likes to stick around on it.
I will state right now that I am NOT a fan of ice. I am, however, a fan of any snow delays or cancellations for the school systems LOL!!!
Not sure there was a storm that was “supposed to be” on the 1st and 2nd. There is a window from about the 1st to the 7th or so when the pattern appears favorable for some sort of winter storm in the South/East given the right timing and track of a “shortwave” or what is generically known as an upper-level disturbance. Doesn’t appear for now that the first disturbance will do the trick, but there are others behind it that might — MIGHT being the operative term. Even in the 2009-10 winter, probably only 1 in 4 of possible systems connected for snow in our region.
Kevin,
Hope you enjoyed your New Year’s Day yesterday.
What is the threshold for ice accumulation to be called an ice storm? and a significant ice storm? Just wondering if we had an ice storm just before the snow started on the 17th.
Radar looking fairly robust right now. I was expecting a few sprinkles.
28 and mostly cloudy out there tonight. It is so quiet outside – the calm before the storm?
.25 inch ice accretion triggers an ice storm warning, and generally is considered the start of where ice can damage tree limbs.