Patchy ice on Monday AM starts wild week of weather
UPDATE 10 AM: Freezing rain advisories have been lifted fof Southwest Virginia as precipitation has ended and temperatures are warming above freezing in most areas. Some patches of ice remain, especially north of Roanoke and along the Blue Ridge, so beware if traveling, especially on rural roads. END UPDATE
Rain and freezing rain began moving into Southwest Virginia late 
Sunday night, and will continue intermittently during the morning hours. Temperatures will hover near or slightly below freezing in much of our region overnight, rising slowly in some places as milder air above is slowly mixed downward by the precipitation. Patches of ice are likely to develop on streets and sidewalks, more so on trees and exposed objects, though it is not expected to be heavy enough to cause widespread damage to trees or power outages. Eventually, during the day, the wedge of cold air will erode, beginning to the southwest and in higher elevations and working northeast and into lower elevations. Temperatures are expected to warm into the 40s and low 50s, but as you know, wedge situations are often a bit odd and unpredictable when it comes to temperatures. The entire region should be above freezing by noon, most spots by 10 a.m.
This is the start of a wild week of weather that will see temperatures soar into the 60s on Tuesday and perhaps Wednesday too. Heavy rain and gusty winds are possible, maybe even some severe thunderstorms, on Wednesday as a cold front slams into the warmth and extremely strong winds aloft will add some spin to the atmosphere and may work to the surface in some downdrafts. Rainfall amounts of more than an inch may occur across the region this week — with soils now saturated and some lingering snowpack here and there, flooding becomes more of a concern. The front will usher in -a return to cold weather late in the week. Upslope northwesterly winds and possibly some Alberta clipper-like disturbances may trigger some snow showers late in the week. For now, it appears a stronger winter storm system is unlikely to develop late in the week, as a southern-stream disturbance will probably be crushed beneath strong high pressure sinking south with Arctic air. But there may continue to be a window for a possible winter storm to develop several days into the first week of February.
Some of this thinking is reflected in the weekly snow meter, below
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Snow meter1/28-2/3
0 to 10 chance of getting 1 inch of snow
Roanoke — 3 snowflakes ***Blacksburg — 3 snowflakes ***
Outlook: We’ll see some ice this morning, but no snow. It’s too warm in the layers of the atmosphere above the surface. That warmth works to the ground for Tuesday and Wednesday, when we may some highs in the 60s, with rain and perhaps even thunderstorms on Wednesday. Cold air returns for the late-week period, and there is one piece of atmospheric energy rotating around the newly established southerly jet stream dip that is a bit suspicious. It appears likely this disturbance will get weakened or even crushed out of existence underneath high pressure building cold air southward. I’ve been burned two weeks in a row going with a “4,” but this situation looks a little less likely to produce an inch or more of snow than the last two, so I went a bit lower than even that. Keep it in mind though if you see snow forecasts start to increase late in the week. The window for potential snow may continue into the following week, beyond the time frame of this snow meter.
Looking back: I knew when we started this that iffy late-week systems would be the toughest. I’m on a 2-week losing streak after again going 4 flakes on the snow meter and having an inch fall (1.5 at Roanoke, 1.9 at Blacksburg) in Friday’s light snow event. I mentioned the possibility in the outlook, again, but the rules are, less than 5 flakes and it snows an inch, I take an “L.”
Current records: 6-2 for Roanoke, 5-3 for Blacksburg.
January 27, 2013 - 11:50 PM
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The freezing rain has started here in Rocky Mount and the temps are at or below freezing.
Anybody else got the guts you’ve got to tell it like it is in multiple forecasts? How many weather “men” can dare to admit oops like you? If the local tv stations would pay their weatherpeople on even 75% accuracy there would be no forecasters! Thank you for your honesty and integrity! A rare treat!
1 Degree difference between the house and the job at 5 am. 50 foot elevation drop in quarter mile. 32 at the house with frozen surfaces. 33 on the job with a light mist falling.
Freezing rain this morning and 30.Supposed to go up to around 40 today.60 by Wednesday.
I cannot walk to my car because of the ice.
The main roads seemed okay when I was out about twenty minutes ago. Did notice some slick spots on the sidewalks though.
30.9* on da Knob. Looks like plenty of ice. At least on the truck and what I can see. I’ll get out after good light and check out things.
32* and a light coating of ice on car and sidewalk…not as bad as I thought it might be..
Received more precip (.14) out of this than we did Friday (.11). Light icing on a few trees…a spot or two on the driveway but that’s it. Current temp 32.3
Larry Cosgrove keeps mentioning a mid-week winter weather threat from a wave of low pressure riding up the cold front on Wednesday. From Larry’s Facebook page last night: “This system may trigger a sizable sleet/freezing rain to snow episode from TN and KY through Appalachia and the interior of the Northeast on Wednesday night and Thursday morning.”
I haven’t seen this mentioned anywhere else. Surely DT would be talking about it if there was a threat. What does Larry Cosgrove see that no one else does?
32 up here and it looks like the sun is trying to peak through the clouds. Our road looks like it is “soaking wet” – nope its ICE! I can see more of the ground peaking through our snow cover so there was a teeny tiny bit of melting going on overnight. Be careful out there!
No ice at my house in New River…we held steady at 34/35 from yesterday evening through the morning. Had we dropped, it would have been treacherous as we got 0.09″ of rain. Thankfully, we stayed on the warm side of the freezing mark.
I think that would be north of us mostly, Jason. There has been some discussion around of possible wintry precipitation on the back side of the storm that rains on us Wednesday.
The sun peeking out is going to make quick work of any ice. NWS-Blacksburg has lifted the freezing rain advisory for Roanoke and Blacksburg southward, continues to north, mostly for ice still on roads.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/emer/emer.php
Ice on my vehicle at home, temp 31.0 now, no ice on roads near me. Roads within 3 miles +- of the Blue Ridge Parkway are solid ice and extremely dangerous.
31 and still some ice here in Greene.
Keeping the hot side hot and the cold side cold..
Remember that fast food slogan?
Further speaks to this weeks weather volatility..
Set a record last night DFW.
Overnight low was 67F…prev record was 63F back in 1956.
Storms possible tonight nut especially tomorrow (storms of the flashing kind)
This is the seed of what will visit SWVA area Wednesday afternoon
/ evening.
From time to time there has been some discussion of cities being “heat islands” on this blog. We usually think of sunlight being absorbed by pavement and buildings and slowly released, and cities’ lower ability of vegetation to provide cooling. But now it appears that the heat produced by cars and by heating of building should also be entered into the weather models since it can affect temperatures thousands of miles away:
http://www.the-scientist.com//?articles.view/articleNo/34149/title/Cities-Affect-Global-Weather-Currents/
I could get use to every Friday off and 2 hour delays on Monday mornings. I can feel Sammy and Doug giving me the icy stares now though LOL. They, like so many other of you, have to work in the weather no matter what. I am thankful that last night’s ice event wasn’t any worse than it was though.
At 1:30 sunny and 58* on my back porch in Pulaski. Boy, this sunshine and warmth sure is going to make the next cold spell sting.
Given the lateness in the week of the storms I think you have been doing very well, Kevin. I think actually your grading system is off. You have alerted this regions citizens before other services. Really sounding the alarms on the 3-7 inch storm way before others. I think the problem is coming with hard decisions of will it snow so far in advance. When the event is going to happen that far off there has to be a probability that nothing will happen. Therefore you appropriately go softer than you would if the storm was 2 days out even though you know there is a, lets say, strong 40% chance of it happening.
DC, enjoy it will you can. I am. You got a heat up there today.
Certainly wasn’t expecting this kind of warm up today (based of NWS forecast of 48). Currently 54 in Goodview
The NWS office only missed the forecast high temperature by 15 to 20 degrees today! What happened, or didn’t happen, to cause it to get so warm? We made decisions this morning regarding coal stove settings and horse blankets based on a forecast high of 45. It’s 63 and still rising at 3:30 pm!
Abundant sunshine and an earlier exit to the precipitation today were the biggies in driving temps up. Wedge eroded much faster than expected, instead of more common event that it erodes slower.
Kevin, I love your blog. Thanks for all you do!
It’s also ironic for it to get into the 60′s the same day that we had a freezing rain advisory. If you don’t like the weather, wait a few hours!
Lots of melting went on today up here. My driveway is now clear and the paths we had through the yard are now clear. Still have snow in parts of the yard though. Another warm day tomorrow and we should be better for the mid-week rain. But if the winds get up, I have some concern about the ground being too saturated and trees being uprooted.
Yes, wd, we let the fires die out in the stoves and soaked up the sun. Time to restart the fire for tonight though.
I’m in Blacksburg tonight to begin preparations for 2013 VT storm chase. Took backroads through Catawba to get here, intersting patterns of snow cover and no snow cover on mountains.
As for snow meter … The won-loss record is really only for a fun way to keep track. The main purpose is to just look at any potential snow situations in week ahead. I personally consider a 4 in 10 snow chance 5 days out a pretty good call if it snows. I’m “losing” by late field goals, not getting blownout.
Cloudy and cool today high was 42 now back down to 39.Calling for a high tommorrow of 45-50.Maybe 60 for Wednesday.
Long north-facing gravel driveway looked like it would never melt this morning. Even when I got back from town at 12:30 snow was still holding strong, but then going up it at 3:00 the snow finally caved and the melt-a-thon was on, almost all gone now.
Hope the ground gets slighlty dried out before the big Wed rains.
Got over 60* here today. I could get use to that. Been stirrin coals all day so I can cleaner out tomorry. Got to where it wouldn’t hold but about half what it should.
KM, your knowledge, and the knowledge of the other contributors, advises us in the forum as to when to expect the hazards of storm systems and alert our friends (who are envious of our weather knowledge.. or lack of in my case). Is it safe to say that severe weather i.e. heavy rain, flood watches, and maybe gusty wind would be a safe bet for Wednesday afternoon, roughly between 2 and 5 P.M.? Sometimes, this info is just as useful as the timing of the onset of a winter system.
I will be putting up a new post later tonight or early Tuesday looking ahead to Wednesday.