Record warmth, rain lead ‘Big 5′ weather points to watch
Another dense fog advisory has been issued overnight/early Sunday for a similar portion of the region as last night. Fog probably won’t be as widespread as late Friday and early Saturday, but could be dense and hamper travel in some locations.
There is so much going on with the weather pattern, short term and long term, that it’ s hard to boil all of it down. Perhaps this is a format I can replicate in the future. Here are the “Big 5″ weather points, based on impact and likelihood, for Southwest Virginia looking forward from Sunday.
(1) Record highs likely again on Sunday. Roanoke’s 73 and Blacksburg’s 71 on Saturday set new standards for Jan. 12, eclipsing previous marks from 2005. Roanoke’s high made for the hottest January day in 8 years, while Blacksburg’s appears to be the second-warmest January day in its entire period of record, dating to 1952, beaten only by a 73-degree day on Jan. 30, 1975. The same southwesterly winds at the surface and aloft, plus in-and-0ut sunshine, will continue the springlike weather for another day, with many temperatures topping 70. Roanoke’s record high for Jan. 13 is 73, set in 1932; Blacksburg’s record is 64, set in 2005. It appears Blacksburg’s record is very likely to fall and Roanoke’s has a good chance. Sunday will be the end of the record warmth, and quite likely the last truly springlike day we’ll see for weeks — maybe even until spring itself.
(2) Good chance of soaking rain Monday-Wednesday. As the leading edge of much colder air that has invaded the western half of the U.S. grinds against high pressure off the Southeast coast that has helped bring us record warmth, the cold front will stall, and only sluggishly advance eastward through the early to middle part of the coming. Waves of low pressure moving along the slowing front will bring abundant moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, leading to periods of rain, especially on Monday and Tuesday, maybe leaking into Wednesday too. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is expecting 2-plus-inch amounts to be common this week, mostly falling during the 72 hours ending Tuesday evening (which really means the 48 hours beforehand, since no rain is expected through Sunday evening). Rainfall will be enhanced some by southeasterly winds blowing up the slope of the Blue Ridge as low-pressure centers move up the front. Roanoke has not topped 2 inches in a single rainfall event since Sept. 17-18. Much of the region continues in moderate drought, so though it will be messy outside, the rainfall is needed.
(3) Much colder period ahead for late January. This will become a huge weather story, not just locally, but nationally, if what many long-range forecast models show comes to reality. Extremely cold air, displaced southward by a “sudden stratospheric warming” event over the North Pole that began about3 weeks ago, is expected to move southward through central and eastern North American over the next 1-2 weeks. While the first chunk of this cold, in a greatly modified fashion, will bring our temperatures back down from intensely warm this weekend to near-normal January cold by late week, it is the subsequent pushes of cold air afterward that will have the potential to bring unusually cold weather to much of the central and eastern U.S., including Southwest Virginia, generally in the Jan. 20-30 timeframe. It’s hard to tell exactly how cold it will get, but it would be a good time to review what to do about your water pipes and make sure heating systems are in top-notch working order just in case the most extreme cold scenarios comes to fruition.
(4) Some ice/snow risk as cold penetrates back side of precipitation shield Tuesday. The cold air will only be grudgingly moving eastward, but enough of it may move in by Tuesday that some ice or snow may be possible, primarily in the highest elevations (3,000+ feet) and along/north of the I-64 corridor. The Hydrometoerological Prediction Center has highlighted a few higher spots around the region on its map for a slight risk of heavy ice (.25 inch or more ) mostly on Tuesday. The HPC also has posted maps showing a low-end risk of 1 or more inches of snow generally along and north of the I-64 corridor for the 24 hours ending at 7 p.m. Tuesday, and also a slight risk for light icing farther south in the same time frame. This is an iffy situation and will most likely be spotty, if it develops at all.
(5) Late-week snow chance not entirely out of the question just yet. The forecast models have been bouncing around on some upper-level energy moving across the South on or near next Friday. This just remains something to keep one eye on, as there is at least some potential for snow (or mixed precipitation, or cold rain) if a sizable low were to throw moisture over marginally cold air late in the week.
January 12, 2013 - 7:48 PM
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Blossom, (4:02 PM on previous thread) where were you living during the winter of 2009-10? Perhaps you live in the valley floor, where there aren’t as many steep curves. I was able to get to work on nearly all days that winter, except on the Saturday morning of the big December 18-19 storm, but I sure could have used a 4-wheel drive vehicle on bunches of mornings and not been antsy about trying to negotiate the bad curve just below our subdivision. And I was lucky for the weekend storm of early February in 2010 …. those were my non-sked days.
About 3 or 4 nights I had to park my car at the bottom of my street because I could not get it up the last hill to our house.
Stayed cloudy all day at my parents house in Manassas.Only made it to about 50.Its back down to 42 here in Marshall now.Was damp and cool all day.Never made it close to the low 60`s they were predicting.How about that Denver-Baltimore playoff game,it was great!
Bring on the rain!! I drove over the Roanoke River on SR 419/Electric Road (just north of Lewis Gale) on the way home today, and I couldn’t see the water. It gets reduced to a little narrow stream there when the river is very low. We still have 3+ months until the leaves come out on the trees, so there is time to play catch up, but we need the FAUCET TURNED BACK ON.
Yes, Mike in M, that Baltimore-Denver game was very exciting, something I was not at all expecting in 10 degree weather. But the wrong team won. I despise the Ravens, both last year and this.
amazing weather here in Goochland Co…back down to near zero visibility in fog and down to 50 degrees. wedge and atlantic flow holding on strong east of the Blue Ridge as it never made above 54 here.
Calling it a night. Will explore possible snow chances after this weekend on Sunday. Snow Lovers just may like the news.
Talk about the wacky weather, Kevin’s home state is getting hammered with some severe weather & the leading edge of the cold air down in Razorback land tonight. Tornado Watches and Winter Weather Advisories all at once.
Fayetteville is down to 32 with mixed precip while Little Rock is 71 and about to get storms.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk/
Spring has sprung,
The grass has ris,
Wonder where the flowers is!
Of I forgot it is still winter. Abingdon topped out at 70 today. I did not check my thermometer at the Chapel since I went to a wedding. It sure did feel like a spring event. Thank goodness they had air on and not heat. Guess we will have to cover our bare arms and legs by next weekend and hopefully get that 2″ of rain before the temps fall.
oh ya! bring it on! bring it on!!! ya!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
OOPS…I meant to say Red Wolves Land…my bad Kevin.
Actually your reference here was geographically correct because the cold was on the Razorback side of the state in NW Arkansas. My Red Wolves corner of Arkansas was still on the warm side in the tornado watch.
That’s true, Doug, I forgot about those winters for a moment. I think we were just expecting that type of winter every year when we came here– that’s part of what has driven me to try to learn more about weather now, I guess. That’s why I like this blog– it’s like sitting in a room full of people talking, sharing their knowledge/experience– one of my favorite ways to learn.
0z GFS gives us a good soaking if it were to verify:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfsp72084.gif
Looks like there will be no “Frozen Tundra Game” in Green Bay next week.
Ben…
correct and even a poosibiity of seeing at least a mix to snow in some areas of the Mid-Atlantic north of I-64.
New GFS looks to move most of the moisture out before the cold air slides into it. Count me skeptical on significant snow potential other than WVa/Pa/western Md. higher elevations.
It starts pouring in the deep Arctic cold on Jan. 21. If that holds, it could be the coldest Inauguration Day in D.C. since Reagan ’85 — which was the epic 1985 Arctic blast. It won’t be nearly that cold on Jan. 21 though — they ended up canceling the Inaugural Parade that year.
I’m hoping the rain forecasts verify…we could seriously use the moisture still…it’s been a dry January thus far, on top of last year.
Had a bunch of fun in Roanoke tonight for the VT-PSU hockey game, despite bad officiating. VT scrapped hard to take it to a shootout, but ultimately lost the game.
I had really been hoping to play some golf this weekend with the awesome weather, but that won’t happen. Instead, I get to spend much of tomorrow at the office. I can’t complain though, I love being busy at work…it always beats the opposite.
Sorry to hear that you won’t be golfing tomorrow, OJ. I plan on making another dawn raid on Draper Valley. In Mid-January no less!! I’ll try to get a hole-in-one for you and the Blondie Boy, but not in that order. I hope that the fog will not be too bad between Salem and there.
There is a slight chance that Chicago might get at least an inch of snow on Sunday. That would break its current longest streak of about 320 days without any date having at least an inch of snow. Amazingly weird winter. Arkansas and Jerusalem have had more snow than Chicago and Roanoke this winter.
Hey, KM, do you have any idea what percentage of snow contest entrants picked a first date for Roanoke 1-inch snow after January 13th? It has to be a lot less than half, probably less than 25%.
Days like Saturday are why I hate winter! Keep the cold and snow at the North Pole, and keep it nice and pleasant here in Southwest VA! That would make me VERY happy!
Ray’s weather center this morning is predicting HIGH temps near or below zero on Tuesday 1/22. He said HIGH temps near or below zero! Looks like the all time record lows (breaking 1985) may be set the morning of Wednesday 1/23. Only problem: no moisture, no snow. The possible snow this coming Thu/Fri also is now off the table for us. Just hoping for ridiculous cold right now, but I giving up on any significant snow.
56 F and partly cloudy this morning. Even though we are under a dense fog advisory for this morning, none has materialized. I would dearly love to see some snow but we need the rain to take the edge off of the drought. Let it rain, Let it rain!
Is there anyone out there who wants January to be much colder and much snowier/wetter than normal, but does not mind one incredibly warm day thrown in? Then the figures from Blacksburg and Roanoke constitute “The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly.”
Yesterday’s blowtorch mean temps at Blacksburg and Roanoke were the “Good,” 25 and 21 degrees warmer than normal. The month-to-date variances are “The Bad,” because Blacksburg is 6.5 degrees warmer than normal so far, and Roanoke is 6.8. And “The Ugly” without a doubt are the monthly precipitation figues: Blacksburg has received only 0.14 inches, Roanoke 0.07. And “The Bad” is going to get even worse after today of course, because the low temps are already well over 50* in both cities.
How warm was yesterday compared to the normal daily mean temp for both cities? An astounding +25 at Hokieburg, +21 at Roanoke. Today will undoubtedly be another one.
No frozen tundra game because the packers lost
No Draper trip today. Bad fog and a bad left shoulder. It was 54.5 very foggy degrees at 7:50, and the fog has become even thicker now, 56.5*.
When I stepped outside this morning the still, damp air held a strong smell of fuel oil or diesel fumes. I’ve smelled this a couple of times before in the three years we’ve lived here and wonder if anyone has had a similar experience or knows of a fuel dump or other establishment nearby that might be a source. I’ve not been able to localize the direction it’s coming from. Just wondering…thanks.
I’ve got the fog at my house, Doppler Carol. Worse than yesterday morning. But it’s already 57 degrees, so it won’t have to burn off long to hit 70.
In a dense Arctic air mass, there often isn’t much of a range between highs and lows. So even if Ray is right and highs are near or below zero — which are possible looking at the Euro this morning — the lows might only be 5 to 10 degrees colder — extremely cold nonetheless.
Lack of snow cover could be a modifying factor with regard to the Arctic outbreak. Depends a lot on how snow cover sets up north of us. It’s pretty bare here to the Great Lakes as of now. How this week’s storms, lake effect, upslope and maybe a clipper or two cover that up will have an effect on just how cold it gets
http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201301/nsm_depth_2013011305_National.jpg
Kevin, about a week ago there was a posting showing the significant snowcover in the US at the time, how much has that changed since? Also, this cold arctic air invasion that is being discussed could very likely be cold like this southern boy has never seen. Anyone care to give some advice on what I need to do to prepare for it? Is disconnecting hoses sufficient, or do I need to keep water running during the cold? The house is a ranch with finished basement, so really no exposed pipes.
Although I have enjoyed learning some of my lessons in dealing with snow the hard way, I don’t want to do that with frozen pipes. The first 8 inch snow we had after I moved here I was bright enough to clear my windshield, but not the top of my car. As I approached the S-curves on 221, I tapped the brakes just to have an 8 inch blanket of snow slide from the top of the car to the windshield, immediately blinding me. Since there is nowhere to pull over along that stretch, I was left driving down the road looking out the side window, hoping for the best.
Judging from that snow cover map, it appears that the city of Chicago did not get any snow overnight. Its amazing record is still intact.
Oops, my 10:19 comment. Scattered snow is approaching Chicago right now. Even though the NWS forecast mentions a chance of snow showers for CHI, it doesn’t mention accumulations. Temp is cold enough …. 27 right now at Midway Airport. So maybe there will not be cause for an “Oops.”
Hello Lee!!! And welcome. How are things at your house? (I know him, I am almost certain) Right now the wind is showing from the east at 6 mph according to NWS. Unless the Sheetz or Orange Market on Peters Creek Road just got a big fuel load and somehow fumes escaped, I don’t know of anything close to you that could be causing the smell. Maybe from the airport?
Trevar – You may be able to find what you are looking for here:
http://www.ready.gov/winter-weather
I certainly will admit my lack of knowledge about the weather in general but I am a bit confused. My local forecast on Accuweather and the Weather Channel both are talking of highs in the low 30′s around the 22nd and lows in the teens. This is a far cry from the drastic figures I am hearing about on the blog. When will this be reconciled? Guess I need to learn more patience.
ORD (O’hare) got 4 hours of freezing rain last night..preceeded
by one hourly observation of ice pellets around 8pm..
Working from the bunker.
FYI…For anyone interested..the airpor code ORD comes from
what it was before they landed airplanes there..
when it started they called it Orchard Field. ORcharD
Still partly cloudy and 71. It feels like spring or maybe Florida in the winter.
Never saw any fog up here this morning.
Doppler Gal, no fog?!?! You lucky. It was almost pea soup here until at least 10:30. Temp has reached 70* here now also.
Trevar, the very best piece of advice on that link that Aaron was kind enough to provide (TYVM, Aaron) may be one under the “Winterize your home” link. Many of the things listed are items that should be done well in advance of winter, if not when the house/home was built, such as adding extra insulation everywhere, and especially around pipes. Short run I think the best advice is to allow a faucet or faucets to drip water overnight. This keeps water trickling through the pipes, preventing the water from freezing.
When it comes to protecting the house from heat loss during winter, double- or even triple-pane windows are well worth the investment if a household is planning to live there for 6 years or more. Use thick curtains, too, or thick drapes. In one of the very best TV commercials I ever saw (probably by Corning), it showed a house with triple pane windows and one without on the same extremely cold night. Thermal imaging. The well-insulated home was almost all in blue, meaning little heat was escaping. The poorly insulated home had bright orange spots at each window, meaning a lot of heat was escaping. Haven’t seen that ad in years, which is a shame.
I found this site to explain why Knoxville is TYS.
http://www.skygod.com/asstd/abc.html
So Hokieburg’s airport is BCB. I’m guessing this is for BlaCksBurg. I wish someone would do connector flights from BCB to IAD, CLT and ATL.
There remain questions of timing, intensity and placement with regard to the Arctic outbreak. I think it’s very unlikely at this point that it will simply miss us or be hugely weaker than expected. I could see it bottoming out in single digits/teens rather than below-zero stuff. Not sure the high-pressure blocking over Greenland will be sufficient to hold in for a long time, so the core may slip into SE Canada/New England and the very cold temps be just a couple days — at least with the first main wave. There will be more after it. So I’m not yet entirely sold on the super-super cold at least at sub-3,000 elevations (pretty good chance Snowshoe and Mount Rogers and higher peaks of NC go below zero at some point).
Also, I’m not off the boat totally yet on the late-week snow possibility. 12Z Euro has brought it back. Chance it slips south of us more over the Carolinas, but there is probably going to be a little leftover energy in the Southwest after this rainy storm goes by, and models are having a hard time resolving what to do with it.
High temps through Sunday 1/20 are all forecasted to be above normal, colder than we have seen, obviously, but still several degrees above normal. I guess we shall see if the motherload arrives in the 1/21-1/23 period. If not, hey, it was fun thinking about the possbilities.
Kevin, when was the last time you can recollect that the models didn’t have a hard time predicting anything past 24 hours out, agreed with each other or come close to getting it right?
Hokie Trax…BCB will never have any kind of air carrier service. Just too short of a runway and no place to build a terminal.
Michael Hoback, if I may, FYI TWC and “Themostaccurateweatherontheplanet.com” have become money making machines instead of being a true weather forecast and information websites. TWC which is now run by NBC Universal is terrible with weather except for nowcasting with Accu***************** just as bad. I wish I could offer you a better place to get what the weather forecast will really be for your area….oh wait…here’s the best site I know of…click on this link:
http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/2013/01/record-warmth-rain-lead-big-5-weather-points-to-watch/
Blogmaster, how about posting a link (or telling us how to get to it ourselves) for that 12Z Euro run?
Without widespread snow cover north of us and with a modified Arctic air mass that has had to move slowly west to east across the country, it’s going to be hard to pull down temps to anywhere but close to normal late this week. And they may indeed moderate above normal a bit over the weekend before the true Arctic air arrives. That would change some if the southern system can drop a little snow Friday — outside chance.
WD: European model was phenomenal on Superstorm Sandy, latching onto the correct evolution and very nearly the correct path and not wavering much on it for 8 days.
Models are great if they’re used as designed, to look for patterns and trends in the long range, increasingly more specifics in the short range.
Doug: Here are the 12Z Euro for Thursdsay and Friday morning. Note the “L” moving from south of Mobile to off the Carolinas coast.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS096.gif
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS120.gif
I checked on Wunderground which has a good snowfall map for the Euro, and taken very literally, the snow stays south of the NC-Va border. But the fact that it’s even on the Euro map off and on, and makes sense synoptically if there is left-behind energy in the Southwest, leads me to not drop the late-week system entirely, just yet. Seen too many of these flip and flop in and out of the models runs at the long range, disappear in mid-range, and then come roaring back 48 hours beforehand.
Forecast didn’t verify this weekend here! 52 yesterday and just hit 60 today with very little sunshine either day. OK, bring on the rain and then the cold and snow chances! What is up with the weather channel? They don’t have any highs in the 30s until week from Tuesday, is it really going to take that long for the cold to get here? I mean that’s the 23rd for goodness sake!
We’ve been talking about that, Jared. The first cold front is only about getting it to not be warm. Near normal a couple of days, edging up a bit — unless the southern system develops into a snow-maker late week. The main Arctic stuff comes in after that next week.
That’s comical the snow stays in the Carolinas! Wow snow north, south, east and west of us! Just send the guys in the white coats to get me! LOL
You deserve a white coat if you believe a model run to be literally true 5 days out!
I’ve come to realize that east of the blue ridge in Virginia is almost impossible to get a good snow except for every decade or so you will get a pattern that finally works! Why is the 09-10 pattern so hard to get back into?
Even if the Thursday/Friday storm becomes a reality, it will simply be too warm to support anything more than rain, save for maybe 5,000′ land in NW NC.
2009-10 you had about 4 major oscillations all tilting strongly toward pro-snow directions much of the winter. Kinda like getting jackpot to come up on all the windows at a slot machine over and over again (if you’re a snow lover, that is).
Depends on your definition of good snow. Historically, you’re due for a 12+ about twice a decade in inland Virginia east of the mountains and 6+ about once every 2-3 years. Getting a lot of snow one year doesn’t mean you can’t or won’t the next, necessarily, but all that snow in 2009-10 means you can have several down years and average near historic norms. Just the breaks.
I would disagree, Mike. It’s possible we would be on a temperature borderline that could lead to mixed precipitation, but the fact that the storm develops at all would change the structure of the atmosphere and the somewhat milder temps forecasted wouldn’t be realized, as they depend on some sunshine and no precipitation. The 12Z Euro, the one showing the system, actually has it snowing to almost sea level across the length of North Carolina.
My overall lean, though, is to the event NOT happening for Virginia and being pretty minor to our south. But southern stream disturbances often prove troublesome to forecast.
Extremely foggy two mornings in a row….now the wind is picking up pretty good. Hope living close to va/nc line maybe we can get a lil bit of snow!
18Z GFS, just out, taken very literally, would be a substantial snow for much of the southern two-thirds of Virginia and northwestern NC. Generally, all of the green north of the blue line would be snow.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov//gfs/18/gfs_namer_108_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
We get a lot of 2-4-inch snows and some bigger ones out of these little southern squirters like this, so it has my attention.
Kevin, looks like a bunch of mets will be in white coats since they been tooting the cold wave horn for a week. And siteing models to verify them. And the snow dance for two weeks. It just seems incredible that with the amount of money involved in producing these models, that they are wrong so often. And I know things change. So, why guess a week out when it’s totally worthless to life, limb, well being to get folks ready for something that doesn’t come to past. I also understand that having people perpared is important. But how much did it cost for them to never see it happen. I know all the arguments so don’t waste time putting them up. If the EURO is the only model that nailed Sandy, then why look at the clown maps. Here’s why! One homerun a season don’t make you a slugger or homerun hitter or a superstar. And none of the models could make a bush league team. Kinda sorry state of affairs don’t you think. Forecasts should read like this. ” There are some models and indicators that show a biggen moving in somewhere around the 22nd or so for NC, VA and New England, so keep this in mind. More on this about 24 to 36 hours out and maybe we’ll have a better handle on it then. As for now, don’t rush out to the store and buy all the bread and milk they have”. As usual, I don’t have a horse in the race, so I could care less what it does, when it does it or whether it does it or not. I would like to live long enough tho to actually see more than one forecast verify 4/5days out. No reply needed Kevin. That’s my story and I’m stickin to it.
I will add that if any of this comes to past as forecast, then I’ll have a heapin, helpin bait of crow and post the recipe.
O ye of little faith.
And the cold wave projections are based on general trends and patterns off several model runs NOT specifics of what an individual model run shows. That is the correct use of long-range models. We’ll see if they verify or not.
The verification scores on forecast models are far better than you give them credit for. One factor is lots of folks only pay attention when there is something significant projected to happen, while the models are painstaking verified mathematically on every forecast every day.
The point is not that something is shown exactly as it will happen 5 days out, but that the models move toward the correct solution day by day, run by run. On the flip side of your point, I can think of very few situations where a storm system happened that wasn’t projected on the models within a reasonable distance 3-5 days out, or one that didn’t happen that was projected.
Comments 47 and 48: One of you (JJF) is talking about white coats as being the employees possibly at an institution for the “mentally/emotionally challenged,” whereas KM is talking about a white coat as a patient. Maybe?
Sandy wasn’t a one-hit wonder. Katrina’s track was nailed days in advance. The April 27, 2011, tornado outbreak was warned about up to 5 days ahead of time. The 1993 Superstorm was projected a week ahead of time. None of that accurate warning with long lead team could have happened without computer model technology.
This weekend’s warmup was correctly modeled 8 days ago, very accurately, for a more recent example.
I probably should not have continued or repeated that phrase, Doug.
So Quags….BCB could not support Dash 8s? There is a terminal there. I thought they were lengthening the runway too.
DC area forecasters are catching it. Their 2 days of 60s/70s didn’t materialize. Wedge hung in too long.
Awwww. No complaint intended by me, at all, Kevin. In fact, I was about to post a link to a one-hit wonder song in 1966 by a musician named “Napoleon 14th” who had a NO. 3 song on the charts entitled “They’re Coming to Take Me Away, Ha Ha Ho Ho Hee Hee” The phrase “in their clean white coats” was part of the lyrics. Jared or others, if you want to hear a really stupid but possibly funny song, go to Youtube, Search the title above (through the words Ha Ha), and choose the video by GARY SCOTT.
Thanks very much for posting the model runs, KM. I was just curious what they looked like. Now, howsabout we concentrate on the big rain? What is the latest from HPC indicating?
Hard to believe 64* at 6:30 PM. but I’ll take it. Did get the yard plugged about 3″ deep today so any rain would be nice. Soak right in where it’s needed.
KM-good point on the change in atmoshphere IF the Thu/Fri storm materializes. If it does happen, you will get plenty of kudos, as no other forecasters are even discussing the possiblilty right now. My money is on you!
Allen Huffman in Raleigh is mentioning the late-week system. His Twitter feed was how I found it had come back on the 12Z Euro.
Beware the southern stream system that blinks in and out on the models. Don’t think I quite believe in it enough to go 5+ flakes on the snow meter, but keeping it in play as a possibility.
Doug: 3-day HPC rainfall totals, still 1.5 inch+.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif
Well, WDBJ is not buying the major arctic outbreak. They just showed an sneak peek at their thoughts for week after next, and showed a high of 35 on 1/22 in Roanoke. That may equate to 30 in NRV, and maybe 23 above 3,000′, but it is now where near the “near zero” highs for the Boone area (3,333′) that Ray was touting this morning. As is typical, WDBJ will wait until the last minute to actually tell everyone the high temp on 1/22 will actually be 10 in Roanoke, 5 in the NRV, and near 0 in the higher elevations.
TYVM again, Weather Wizard. I watched Channel 13 weather this evening because 7 had the late NFL game. They had a rainfall estimator that Lindsay Tapases took the viewers through slowly. It was awesome presentation (are you local guys on “7″ listening?). By noon tomorrow, only 0.04 estimated for ROA, 0.18 for Blacksburg, 0.40 for Hillsville. By 6 PM ROA grew to something like 0.65, so I think Bburg and Hillsville were higher. Rain continues through the Tuesday AM at least, with totals over 1.5 inches for all three sites I think. Not 100% sure about that, but I remember seeing the total go over 1.3 at least for ROA.
Give them a bit of a break, Bburg Mike. After all, those dates are all over a week away. If 7 is still saying a high for ROA of even 30 for the 23rd on Friday when “all” the other mets are saying 20 or less, then go get ‘em. Along with me.
I agree fully with what Kevin said in an earlier comment about the possible/probable lack of a Greenland block to hold in whatever cold snap happens here.
Doug, that song is on the list that aol radio plays in the halloween station, and I have become a fan of it.
HT…
Yes a Dash 8 can easily fly in and out of KBCB.
And yes there is a “Terminal Building” already there.
However…If Blacksburg International Airport were to truly become an Air Carrier Field then:
1. FAA has to certify it as an operable Air Carrier Field which requires a Gov’t entity to operate it such as what you have at ROA, The Roanoke Regional Airport Commission
2. It needs a longer, wider & studier runway to meet FAR part 25 standards (Joe can explain that too) to meet all kinds of criteria for air carrier aircraft and operators with at least a Precision Runway Approach (ILS or RNAV Category 1)
3. CFR (Crash Fire & Rescue Station) manned 24 hours day equipped to handle every commercial aircraft that would operate out of the airport and every kind of emergency.
4. TSA as well as Security to include a 24 hour manned Police Staff on field, Security perimeters, cameras
5. IATA (International Air Transport Association & ICAO (International Civil Aeronautics Organization) certification
6. An air carrier willing to come in and serve BCB and risk losing money in the first 2-4 years of operation.
7. Uncle Obama…Need Gov’t $$$ to start this up and not just Federal but State & Local. Blacksburg would have to qualify for the EAS (Essential Air Service) funds from Congress but it that can’t happen because under EAS criteria, Blacksburg is within 25 nautical miles of another airport with air carrier service so it would not get the EAS funding. The Pulaski NRV Airport however would qualify for EAS and has been previously used by airlines in the past and has a much longer runway with lots of room to expand. I’m sure if you look around BCB, there is little room to expand at the current location.
I could go on but it would take lots of $$$, Gov’t red tape and finding a willing airline to stick its neck out. It’s a lot involved. Just won’t happen.
Quags – okay, never mind. Thanks for clarifying.
I can’t help but feel pessimistic about the rainfall predictions. The trend has been that the precipitation totals to under perform and I feel that it’s going to happen again.