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Second day of a slow soaker (UPDATED 1:30 PM)

UPDATE 1:30 PM: The flood watch has been expanded northward to Roanoke and the New River Valley. Another 1-3 inches of rain may fall through mid-morning Wednesday as a second area of low pressure ripples northeastward along the stalled front. END UPDATE

UPDATE 9 AM

Flood watch issued for counties along/south of Wytheville-Floyd-Martinsville line. A flood watch signifies potential for gradual rising of streams and some rivers to flood stage — as opposed to rapid flooding with torrential rain that would warrant a flash flood watch — with totals of 4-6 inches possible in some locations.

New rain totals through 9 AM across NWS-Blacksburg area linked here. Widespread 1-2 inches  in evidence, with some amounts exceeding 3 inches.

END UPDATE

By mid-evening Monday, rainfall amounts of 0.25 to 0.75 inches were common in the Roanoke and New River valleys northward, with some 1-inch-plus amounts already near the North Carolina line. And of course it has continued to rain for more than 3 hours after that as I am typing this shortly after midnight, and will continue to rain in the early morning hours. I’ll post some new numbers sometime in the morning. With much of the region in moderate drought, a soaker of mostly light to moderate rain (a few periods of heavy rain here and there) is ideal. It won’t necessarily end the drought, especially in parts of Southside Virginia that ran a foot or more deficits in 2012, but it will ease it quite a bit. There may be a lull in the rain during the day Tuesday, as one ripple of low pressure moves to the east and a second approaches from the southwest. But the second low riding up the stalled frontal boundary is expected to bring another round of moderate rain with similar amounts Tuesday evening. It will be colder Tuesday, hovering around 40 in the Roanoke and New River valleys, as some of the modified Arctic air eases into Virginia, aided by the backside rotation of the low moving off the East Coast. It is possible that some higher elevations west of Interstate 77 or along the Virginia-West Virginia line will get some icing by Tuesday evening, but a widespread wintry weather situation is not expected in Virginia.

There is still a tricky southern stream disturbance to monitor for Friday. Most forecast guidance has the system staying mostly south of Virginia, but it wouldn’t take much of a bump in the path northward for it to bring a light to medium snowfall to our region. Confidence continues to grow in a major Arctic outbreak pouring southward out of Canada next week. We’ll try to hone in on more details of both of these events once we get past the rain.

Join the conversation [ADD A COMMENT]

112 COMMENTS

  1. David in Salem |

    Had to drive to Knoxville and back. Just got home. Rain all the way both ways. Down in TN, many of their streams and rivers looked mighty rowdy.

  2. Doug G, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft |

    41* at 6 AM. And a “miracle” has happened. I made an accurate prediction: 1.4 inches in the gauge.

  3. Clarkdocvet |

    42* and 1.81 inches of rain in past 24hrs here in Woodlawn…raining cats and chihuahuas now…

  4. Matt Blacksburg |

    1.47″ from this system 2.4 miles ENE of Blacksburg as of 7:00 Tuesday.

  5. Doppler Carol (Floyd County Doppler 2546 ft) |

    Tuesday morning – currently 39 and 1.67 inches of rain. Last night just a bit after midnight we had 1.06 inches of rain. Rain seems to be coming down more quickly today than yesterday.

  6. wdbrand-SW Rke. Co.-1827' |

    40.6* Showing 0.82″ of rain for both days so far, but that seems low according to what other stations are reporting. Don’t fully trust my rain gauge on my station. Mought have a mouse trapped in it. Come spring, I’ll put my two de-liars out beside the sensor and check it.

  7. Other John |

    We had around a quarter-inch by the time I got home yesterday, and were just over a half-inch by late evening. As of this morning, over 1.5″ and counting…

  8. Kevin Myatt |

    I just added new link to updated rain totals through 5 a.m. and also information on the flood watch for several counties south/southwest of Roanoke to top of this blog entry.

  9. Michael Hoback |

    I did not check my gauge this morning before leaving but we were well over an inch last night and I am sure we were well over 2″ this morning. Rained all night. Creeks were full to coming out of their banks this morning. We are now under a flood watch until tomorrow. Temps actually rose a bit overnight to the low 40′s.

  10. Kevin Myatt |

    My rain gauge south of Roanoke is at 1.5 inch through 9 a.m.

  11. Captain Glen Quagmire |

    Getting “UN-official” reports rain/sleet around SML (Smith Mt. Lake)& HSP (Hot Springs Airport on the Mountain up there). I’m sure parts of WV are definitely seeing some wintry precip being mixed in but nothing heavy.

    Down to 39 and rain here in eastern Goochland Co. 1.29″ in the guage since Monday. Gladly take it & there’s more on the way!

  12. Shanon "Nurse Snow" |

    May have been my imagination, but before going to bed last night, I’m pretty sure it was raining hard enough for me to hear it on the roof. I typically measure rainfall by the ponding in front of my driveway that makes it near impossible to reach the mailbox and keep my feet dry LOL. I currently have at least a 6 inch wide pond (not deep) in front of my driveway which indicates a good amount of rain. How’s that for scientific LOL

  13. Rachel in Knoxville, TN |

    Rain gauge showing over 3 inches here, and more to come!

  14. Rick in Wytheville |

    We have 2.20″ in Wytheville and counting.

  15. John from Ruckersville |

    Temperature is fluctuating around 37-38 degrees here and we have had a steady cold rain for about 16 hours.

  16. Brian - Goodview (1020') |

    Rain totals as of 11:10 am for Goodview 1.29 (.73 and .56 today), Jordantown 1.17 (.60 and .57 today)

  17. Matt |

    I have 2 inches in my gauge here just east of Rocky Mount. Ditches are full. Let it rain!

  18. Paul (Bonsack Area 1250') |

    1.62″ rain total in Bonsack Read Mtn area (1.1″ today)

  19. kevin from turkeycock mtn |

    Hey Kevin is there still a chance of snow on friday. The weather channel has full sun and zero chance of precip

  20. Kevin Myatt |

    Most model guidance is keeping the late-week system south of us. So as of now there is no official “chance” of snow, but there is a chance the system will bump farther north in future model runs, and that the forecast will change.

  21. Kevin Myatt |

    Not really seeing any sign of a between-the-lows lull in rain today. The second wave of low-pressure is very evident back over Tennessee/Mississippi area and it has already reintensified the rain area in front of it. We may well go 12+ more hours with rain not stopping.

    More ice/sleet/snow in Arkansas today. Seems to be their season for wintry stuff, with many locations having 10 times Chicago’s snowfall to date.

  22. joe |

    In the big D woke up to thunder (5am)..sleet and snow.
    On back edge of system was a bit of a surprise.
    NWS didnt have it forecast as of late last night.
    roof tops were white…maybe 1/2 inch of mix.
    Traffic nightmare…over 300 flights cancelled.

    In wx history..Jan 15, 1932 Los Angeles snowiest day ever..1-2 inches
    even the beaches were covered.
    Moose Lake Minn…-53f Jan 15, 1972 …coldest since 1936

  23. Kevin Myatt |

    I was hoping you would chime in about the Dallas situation, Joe. I saw that report of snow and thunder. Wild stuff.

  24. Michael Hoback |

    Still pouring the rain in Abingdon. There is something bad wrong with the automated rain gauge at the Va Highlands Airport. It was showing .65 (i think) this am around 9am. I clicked on it with the NWS forecast and the totals do not add up. I added all the hourly totals since Sunday Night at midnight and it was over 4″. Tri-Cities Airport is well over 3″ and may have topped 4″ by now.

  25. wdbrand-SW Rke. Co.-1827' |

    This has to be the best rain we’ve had in a long time. The creeks coming off da Knob and Bent Mt. hasn’t much more than dis-colored and Back Ck. ain’t even up. Every bit off this has soaked in the ground. Keep it coming. Snow couldn’t have soaked in any better.

  26. joe |

    Yes Kevin..
    Being from this part of the country you know thunder here has classifications of its own (at least in the eyes..or ears of the boomed on)
    It wasnt a light rumble as you might expect with colder air at surface.
    It was incredibly loud booming thunder.
    Definately a surprise as it was very cold (mid 30-s) on the walk to the car last night.

  27. Paul (Bonsack Area 1250') |

    I will report “Live” from Chicago next week…Tuesday High forcasted at 14!!!

  28. Kevin Myatt |

    Flood watch was expanded northward to Roanoke and most of the New River Valley about an hour ago. Just noted it in blog entry above.

  29. Doppler Carol (Floyd County Doppler 2546 ft) |

    37 up on Doppler Ridge. Rain gauge says “2.44″ inches in the last 24 hrs.

  30. Shanon "Nurse Snow" |

    I was on the phone a few minutes ago with a handyman that is putting windows in my residence in Smyth County. He said he was going to go fishing in my front yard there! He said I quite literally had a pond in the front.

    Kevin, I’m holding tight to something you once said, big snow winters are generally big rain winters also.

  31. Matt |

    Very intense rain squall here near Rocky Mount right now. A bit over 2.5 in the gauge. I’m glad to see the rain, but I wish it wasn’t “feast or famine”.

  32. scott saunders |

    WD BRAND…
    Where and what is this DA KNOB you always speak of? Is DA an acronym for something? Enjoying our heavy rains quenching the parched earth, bring it on! Are we still supposed to get colder later in the week? I’m just wondering.

  33. Matt |

    Oh.. and by the way.. AccuHenry says NAO is going negative and PNA going positive next week. He says there’s a chance (maybe hype) that there will be a storm around the 21st. Any thoughts?

  34. wdbrand-SW Rke. Co.-1827' |

    Scott, consider “da” the same as you would “the”. Jest my way of describing things. “Knob” is for 12 O’Clock Knob, the mounteen I live on.

  35. Doug G, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft |

    OK who were the skeptics yesterday about the rain from this event? I just got home and there is a huge 2.15 inches in the gauge. And still raining quite steadily. It rained just about the entire day at work. I exchanged e-mails with Merle Spencer who I believe works and lives in Henry County, and he told me that he had just about what I have now at 11:00 last night! I urged him to come here and update us with the latest ….. hope that he does. Gotta go …

  36. wdbrand-SW Rke. Co.-1827' |

    Still only showing 1.13″ since Monday. I know there’s several gaps that didn’t record and wonder if anybody else are showing less than is being widely reported?

  37. wdbrand-SW Rke. Co.-1827' |

    Joe, what are you hearing about ice damage and power outages around the Gulf States?

  38. Kevin Myatt |

    There is a winter weather advisory now for Wednesday morning for higher elevations generally along/north of I-64 corridor — Alleghany, Bath and Rockbridge counties, etc. The rain may end with some light freezing rain or sleet.

    http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/emer/emer.php

  39. scott saunders |

    Thanks WD BRAND. Thought I’d ask since I’ve seen it mentioned on occasion. I guess that’s up around Bent Mountain. I am way up near Fincastle. Anyway, the rains are starting to pick up again.

  40. Lex |

    In Rockbridge,”the rain may end with some light freezing rain or sleet.” But our predicted low is 35.

  41. Kevin Myatt |

    Lex: Only higher elevations — though specifically what elevation is not named in the advisory.

    Though it’s also important to note that it can sleet with surface temperatures into the 40s if the upper air is right. Can’t have freezing rain though unless surface is 32 or below.

  42. joe |

    Im hearing pretty much what you guys are…
    Still ongoing but the precip is fairly light
    on the back side (cold side) of this system.
    I heard a few hundred people in Greenville Mississippi
    were without power.
    This storm will be known for its slow movement and
    copius rains..I dont think there will be massive
    power outages. Thats the good part about having a knive edge
    line defining the cold air..and precip dropping already as ice
    or snow for the most part.

  43. Roa10 |

    Hey Kevin, any idea what travel will be like from Roanoke to Gatlinburg, TN on Friday, or too early to tell?

  44. Kevin Myatt |

    The farther south you go the better chance you’ll have bumping into some precipitation from that southern stream system, Roa10. Unless it makes a northward jog I don’t think it’ll be that big of a deal. Keep tabs on any forecast changes, and be careful the closer you get in elevation to Gatlinburg.

  45. Kevin Myatt |

    NWS-Blacksburg forecasts now reflect the first signs of the coming Arctic air — subfreezing high for Blacksburg and mid 30s for Roanoke on Tuesday. Would not be surprised to see those numbers move downward, maybe quite a bit, in days to come. Might be an Alberta clipper scattering some light snow with the arrival of the colder air.

    NWS-Blacksburg still expecting southern stream storm to stay south and keeping it dry Friday, per GFS/Euro guidance, while NAM is farther north. I’ve dealt with enough southern stream mid-intensity disturbances like this to know not to take your eye off of them. I’ve seen forecasts shift 200-300 miles in 12 hours on similar systems. But that can be either direction.

  46. Rick in Wytheville |

    The slow soaker has brought me 2.50″ so far.

  47. Matt |

    Under another yellow radar return here in Franklin County…. I see a solid 3 inches in the gauge.

  48. Brian - Goodview (1020') |

    Just hit the 1 inch mark for the day. Currently 1.74 for the storm.

  49. Kevin Myatt |

    Over 2.3 inches at my location south of Roanoke. Heavier echoes keep moving across the same area south of Roanoke, edging up into the south end of the Roanoke Valley. I think I’ll top 3 for this event.

  50. David Gravell |

    3.5 inches of rain measured in the gauge as of 5pm here in Eastern Montgomery County near Shawsville. Temperature at 41 with a steady moderate rain falling. The branch near our house has finally begun to rise, but has not reached half bankfull.

  51. Matt |

    Luckily, I’ve topped 3, and on the WDBJ radar just now, Franklin County is yellow and red on the doppler returns. I’m loving it. I guess I love the rain like other people love the snow. Steady miniature creek flowing down the backyard.

  52. Doug G, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft |

    Brent Watts just showed his station’s model which claims that an ADDITIONAL 1.45 inches of rain could fall in ROA by the wee hours of Thursday!! If that happens, this event will exceed the estimates locally.
    Here is a tribute to all those folks who have to work outside for many hours in this continuous rain and some downpours. Not just letter carriers. It is no fun as far as I am concerned ….. I have done it many times in the past.
    Meanwhile, an ode to all this rain, and this time it is something that probably all of us can rejoice in (unless some of you are getting flooded):
    Mine eyes have seen the glory of the coming of the RAIN …

  53. Doug G, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft |

    Hello, Jason in Riner. How much rain so far in your area?

  54. Johnny near KHLX |

    My rain gauge had 4.1″ as of 5:00 p.m. Its been a long time since it rained this much. Its also down to 39º now at 5:35.

  55. Mike from Marshall |

    Cold and damp today but hardly any rain at all.Low this morning was 37 and its 37 now.Not much of a warmup at all today.Just checked the radar and rain is moving north towards us.If only this could have been snow.We never have the cold air when there is plenty of moisture.

  56. Ridgeway Weatherman |

    DT is getting very excited about the potential for weather on Friday, even giving out totals already. Is he crazy?(thoughts Kevin)

  57. Zach |

    Confidence is really growing in this coming storm for me. I like our chances – - not just along the border counties either. If you live South of 460, I’d say this is the best chance at accumulating snowfall yet this year. Expect a full update later on after the 00z model suit.

  58. wdbrand-SW Rke. Co.-1827' |

    Just talked to my son in West Salem and he said the Rke. River was coming up. Reckon the soakin in has stopped and the run-off has begin. Good time for the rain to stop also, before flooding starts.

  59. Zach |

    HPC now has entire NRV in 50% or greater chance of seeing at least 2″ of snow.. this morning it was ZERO. The trend is the friend.

    IF you live North of Roanoke — I don’t expect it to go MUCH further North.. I can see a jog where the precip is between 460 and 58.. however the confluence to the North I THINK will prevent this thing from going THAT far to the north.. I COULD BE WRONG. IF that were to happen this would be rain. Right now I am not too concerend about this missing us to the South.. the confluence isn’t that strong to the North.. I mean for it to miss us to South temps would have to be COLD and that’s not happening.

  60. Zach |

    Also so flooding goin on in Grayson County this evening along the river. Water up over the road in a couple spots and some campgrounds/campers under water – - TYPICAL though nothing out of the ordinary in heavy rain situations.

  61. Kevin Myatt |

    The thought of it possibly snowing late Thursday/Friday is not crazy. We’ve discussed it a bit on here the last few days. Like Zach, I want to see the 0Z models tonight. Also will be interested if NWS has a different take on it once they get past this current rain/flood watch event.

  62. kevin from turkeycock mtn |

    Almost at 4 inches and still raining and extremely foggy…come on snow

  63. Zach |

    NWS just confirmed what I reported – - flood warning out for Grayson/Galax

  64. Kevin Myatt |

    Some heavy rain on radar now moving up I-81 through the New River Valley toward Roanoke.

  65. Captain Glen Quagmire |

    Please folks take the flood warnings seriously.

    Looks like snow chances for later in the week are on the up swing.

    Have a feeling this one will move further north. :)

    Will update QWC in the morning. Lots to do.

  66. Captain Glen Quagmire |

    changed my mind…will update QWC later tonight.

    This rain is getting serious down here. Down to 38 and moderate rain most of the day. Just topped the 1.95″ mark

  67. Mike from Marshall |

    Kevin do you think its cold enough up on top of Mt Rodgers for snow right now?Moderate rain falling now and still 37.

  68. wdbrand-SW Rke. Co.-1827' |

    Yea, and the ground is done with soaking it up. Heavy rain now will put rivers like Roanoke up or outta their banks by daylight. Shawsville will be the first to see it.

  69. Bubba Greene |

    Kevin: I have noticed for some time now that when I view the NOAA radar there appears to be a “dead zone” (my term) which extends in a wedge shape from near Roanoke toward the northest. The “wedge” apex is near Roanoke and it widens as it goes out to the northeast. I’m guessing this is some obstruction near the physical location of the radar….????

    Typically, you won’t see any rain in this area unless it is very heavy, such as at this moment, but even then the outline of the wedge can be seen.

  70. Kevin Myatt |

    More likely to be icing on Mount Rogers than snow, with mild, moist air streaming in aloft.

  71. Erin |

    I was checking out the alerts and find it interesting that Botetourt is one of the only local counties without any alerts or warnings. I guess we have our own doughnut hole this time!

  72. Doppler Carol (Floyd County Doppler 2546 ft) |

    37 here on Doppler Ridge and rain gauge says “3.20″ in the last 24 hrs. Still raining. Small streams are rising – be careful out there.

  73. Zach |

    Quags.. how much further North? Enough to screw me in ole Fancy Gap :) ? haha

  74. Kevin Myatt |

    Bubba: Sounds like you’re in the Poor Mountain shadow. Radar beam is partially blocked by summit of Poor Mountain.

  75. Newman |

    Flood Warning for SW Pulaski Co.From NWS: “THE AREA OF
    GREATEST CONCERN IS ALONG THE NEW RIVER BETWEEN ALLISONIA AND
    CLAYTOR LAKE…INCLUDING TRIBUTARIES BETWEEN THESE LOCATIONS.”

  76. Ben G. |

    0.75″/hr with that latest band that pushed through Roanoke. Up to 1.77″ since midnight. SW City.

  77. Newman |

    Ah, the Snow Buzzards are circling. They smell fresh snow……

  78. wdbrand-SW Rke. Co.-1827' |

    The Dopp sits at around 2600′. The highest point on Poor Mt. at around 3900′. That would block the signal, how far, I don’t know.

  79. ice storm lover |

    Kevin already answered this, but yes, the beam is blocked by Poor Mountain. The hole carries right over my area in Botetourt County. I can’t use the NWS Radar to find the local weather because of it. I can see what’s west, but I can’t see what’s directly over me.

  80. John from Ruckersville |

    NOAA introduced the possibility of sleet in their latest forecast (7:53 PM) for Thursday. We also have a chance of snow showers on MLK Day. It will be interesting to see where they go from there with the next update.

  81. Doug G, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft |

    About 2.15 in the gauge just before 4 PM, 2.6 at 6:00 when the Mrs. and I left for dinner (at Ragazzi’s), and now it has already risen here to an even 3 inches. WOW. Can this really be happening? For once the HPC models may end up under-estimating (but just by a little) a rainstorm for ROA. Hats off to them nevertheless. And it is STILL raining hard. Will I be one of the folks to reach 4 also? I wouldn’t bet against it.
    I am off now to do a bit of research, but if I know him KM may beat me to it.

  82. kevin from turkeycock mtn |

    Heavy heavy rain…just found a leak…lol

  83. Wayne |

    As of 6:00 PM, I recorded 1.67 inches from this current event in Blue Ridge. Since many are reporting considerably more rainfall than this, I have to agree with Erin’s assessment (Comment #74).

  84. Brandon R. |

    Not jumping on the snow bandwagon this go around.

  85. Bubba Greene |

    Thanks all for the info. I too live in that area and it seems to never rain here on the radar, yet my gauge has right at 4 inches!

  86. Doug G, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft |

    TRIVIA TIME! But this is very weather-related. When was the most recent time when Roanoke got over 3.5 inches from a single rain event? I just looked it up. Kevin, please stifle about this for perhaps 30 minutes after you approve it, if you would, because I bet you know the answer without even looking it up.
    Here are some blog comments from the wettest day of that event.

    By Brandon R.: New HPC rainfall map ups the ante, shows 6″+ over the entire area.
    By the “Former Mayor of Brownsville”: Wow. 6 inches or more?! I know that I was saying stuff like ‘Bring on the rain’ just a week ago {Editor’s Note: you were saying that — amongst all your complaints — all that summer, Mayor!!}, but 6 inches or more sounds excessive. {Over a 6-day period, Roanoke did get over 6 inches, with 2.51 on the wettest 5th day and another 1.90 on the next (6th) day).
    By Kevin (at 8:25 PM on the wettest day): Tornado warning continues now for western Montgomery, eastern Giles, southwest Craig, and far tip of NW Roanoke County.

  87. Blacksburg Mike |

    So, the HPC has Blacksburg squarely in the slight probability of 4″ of snow on Thursday, and the NWS forecast says Mostly Cloudy with a high of 42. And, for Tuesday, the NWS has a high temp of 30 – I guess they don’t realize that 30 for a high, while it is cold, is certainly not reminscent of 1985. Maybe they will update the snow on Thursday and the historic cold on Tuesday in traditional nowcast fashion. Seems the common non-weather geeks out there, could use a little warning that moderate snow is possible AND the coldest temps in 28 years are on the way, but you would have no clue by relying on the forecasts. Unbelievable. If it wasn’t for KM, none of us would have any clue what was coming.

  88. Lee in zip 24017 |

    Dumped 2.5 out of the gauge 15 minutes ago. Don’t know what’ll happen evernight and the gauge only holds 5 inches. Hee hee .. Is the drought over?

  89. Captain Glen Quagmire |

    Zach…

    IMHO, The Low will come in stronger with a wider precip shield & just may jog far enough north for SW VA (Grayson & Carroll included) to see at decent amount of snow (3-6″). I-64 will be about as far as the precip shield will come, maybe a little farther than that. Will know alot more by Weds.

  90. Jared French of Greene county |

    Well all you folks down in southwest and southern piedmont enjoy your snow on Friday! I will just keep gazing at the sky wondering if some day the snow might come back to Greene county. LOL Oh well Like I said a few days back, it has snowed in northern virginia, the valley and now it will be snowing in southside. I guess the only cruel thing now would be snow for the tidewater and the circle will be complete. LOL Long live the Force field of central Virginia! Maybe some day we will have a mighty storm to destroy this foul Force field!

  91. Jason in Riner |

    We have 3.4 inches of rain in the gauge as of 9:30 pm. I would say the HPC QPF forecast has verified! I have been busy with the shop vac sucking up the water that has been backing up into the basement from the floor drain, as well as seeping in through the walls and slab. Whoever built this house back in the late 70′s, I really wish you had done a better job grading the yard. Water should run away from the house, not towards it!

  92. Dan |

    No shortage of precip for the Thursday system according to the 00Z NAM. Well over an inch if not 1.5″. According to my untrained eye temps appear to be an issue if you want all snow. Will be interesting to see what the GFS shows tonight.

  93. Michael Hoback |

    The Chapel was up to 3.3″ by 9pm for the entire event. Still raining and more heavy returns in TN coming this way. Creeks are the highest I have seen in several years and they are out of their banks. NWS showing a high of 30 with snow showers by next Tues. We also have a chance of snow from Wed night through Friday of this week.

  94. Lex |

    The weatherman in Pittsburg is pulling out his hair:

    WHILE THIS FORECASTER WOULD LOVE NOTHING MORE THAN TO TYPE THAT THINGS DO NOT LOOK AS BAD AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED…QUITE THE OPPOSITE LOOKS TO BE THE CASE. MODEL INITIALIZATIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WERE QUITE PROBLEMATIC. THE NAM WAS THE COLDEST OF THE NEW 18Z GUIDANCE…AND IT INITIALIZED TOO WARM AT THE SURFACE OVER VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE CWA. THE 18Z GFS TRENDED DECIDEDLY COLDER AT THE SURFACE AND 850 MB FROM ITS PREDECESSOR…BUT EVEN THAT WAS STILL TOO WARM…ALBEIT FAIRLY LOCK STEP WITH THE 12Z ECMWF. ALL THIS LEADS TO GOOD CONFIDENCE IN A FORECAST THAT WOULD BE NO LESS WINTRY THAN WHAT COMES OUT OF ANY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

  95. Blacksburg Mike |

    So the NAM has 12″ of snow in the NRV on Thu/Fri. If this happens it will be the biggest reverse snow bust since 12/10/95!

  96. Amanda SW Noke |

    Just a quick question Kevin…As Ice Storm Lover posted in Comment #96. I’m looking at the map, reading your blog, reading DT’s posts (and not buying into his hype…EVER), but NWS and everyone local is saying “Sunny, highs of 50″ I’m at a loss for what is going on. I can read maps but all the acronym talk has to be spelled out for me to understand. I know it’s probably not going to stick to the roads but is there a time frame for this event? Thursday evening? Would you say 4+ inches would be a good guess at this time?

  97. Kevin Myatt |

    First, it’s important to point out that now we’re talking about THURSDAY more than Friday for what I’ve been calling the late-week system. Thursday’s official forecast for Roanoke is cloudy, high of 41. So not quite as different as the Friday forecast (which, if it does snow significantly Thursday, would cool down rather dramatically because of snow cover.)

    At this point there is a lot of confusing data out there that hopefully will start coming together — sort of — in the next 12-24 hours. I’m not ready to call a 4+ event based on the NAM, which has been all alone on its depiction of the late-week system, and also hasn’t had the greatest batting average of late. That said, we are within the 48-hour window now of a potential Thursday event, and the NAM does better in that time frame than out to 72 or 84.

    I’m thinking the potential is growing for at least some snow to occur in part of Southwest Virginia.

  98. Kevin Myatt |

    The new GFS is coming in now … looking quite a bit like the NAM.

  99. Doug G, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft |

    I agree with your 10:30 comment, Amanda. Somebody is going to be very, very wrong about what happens Thursday night and Friday. I eagerly await what KM has to say. And wondering if anyone is willing to extend a guess in reply to my 8:46 comment about when was the most recent time that Roanoke got over 3.5 inches from a single rain event.
    NON-WEATHER: I looked back on the blog at that period of about two weeks, and it was amazing. The transformation around all of SW Virginia and especially the Roanoke valley was astounding, no exaggeration. I even made a couple of comments about the Blond Man. Don’t worry, I am just getting sentimental. He was a real dog when that event happened, so you know it had to be quite a while ago.

  100. Rick in Wytheville |

    I’m up to 3.40 inches and still coming.

  101. Kevin Myatt |

    Doug: I haven’t had the time to research your question, which I was planning to do anyway. I have 2 ideas in mind of when that might have been.

  102. BrandonNrV |

    New GFS is further north for the potential snow.

  103. Doug G, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft |

    Rick, I am just a bit lower than you, 3.25 inches just a few minutes ago. STILL raining steadily. This is outrageous, in a wonderful sense (at least for me, I have zero flooding worries).
    KM, a couple of quick hints that might trigger your memory. Near the end of the event, you called me the Mayor of Watertown after I had been the Mayor of Brownsville for several weeks. And Elizabeth in southern Botetourt became the Mayor of Brownsville for one day. I received over 7 inches of rain in a week.

  104. Kevin Myatt |

    I’m thinking Tropical Storm Lee remnants in early September 2011.

  105. Doug G, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft |

    And of course you are thinking correctly, Kevin. Congrats. From drought to drenched in just 7 days. The wettest day was September 5th, 2011, Labor Day I believe. I will never forget that period of time. And yet near the end of the event or a couple of days after it, I posted a comment about news stories then of horrific wildfires in joe’s “new” home state of Texas. From the big but dry winds on the back side of Lee. Many homes destroyed even more completely than what most powerful tornados could do …. nothing standing, just the foundation. The entire contents of the homes incinerated. Very sobering.

  106. Captain Glen Quagmire |

    YEAH BABY!!!!!

    How bout it Zach…Bulls eye coming for ya! I may just stay up for 0Z Euro.

    Scott Saunders, Mr. Brand, Mr. French… Happy now? :)

  107. Captain Glen Quagmire |

    Comment 92…somebody said 3-6″ long before the 0Z models came out….mmmmm.

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About Weather Journal

Kevin Myatt is The Roanoke Times' principal weather geek. He writes the Weather Journal column and advises the newsroom on weather topics while also working on the copy desk. He helps lead college students on storm chases and has edited a book on hurricanes. {More about Kevin}

Kevin appears on WVTF radio's All Things Considered every Friday at 4:30 p.m. | Find a station.

Follow Kevin on Twitter @kevinmyattwx and use the hashtag #Swvawx to share your weather news.

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