Stale chilliness breaks into warmup next week
Remember that late-week storm possibility we talked about a few days ago? One of the pieces that could have gone into that will zip by early Thursday, but the upper-air impulse is unlikely to do much other than keep the cloudiness hanging in, and maybe squeeze out a few snow flurries or patches of drizzle or freezing drizzle. There will be a somewhat better chance to the south and west of Roanoke. Temperatures will hang on to the 40s highs and 20/30s lows until perhaps poking into the 50s some by the weekend, with little or no precipitation. Kind of a stale state of weather, locally. A few states to the north, some sub-zero cold is cutting into New England.
It appears very likely it will get mild, perhaps warm, for a few days next week (a 60-70 percent chance of above-normal temperatures in the 6-10-day period, says the Climate Prediction Center). A big feature warmth lovers cheer for in mid-winter, and snow fans groan about, a Southeast U.S./Bermuda high will have full control of the weather pattern a week from now. That combined with low pressure over the western U.S. will lead to southerly and southwesterly winds oozing in unseasonable warmness. For Southwest Virginia, we’ll probably see 60s, and 70 is not out of the question. Strong storm systems may develop in the central U.S. and track to the Great Lakes, each one bringing a shot of cold to at least temporarily back the warmth down, during the upcoming pattern. Long-term, there remain signals of “stratospheric warming” in the polar region that may lead to the kind of northern latitude blocking that would force Arctic air southward, sometime in the second half of the month. Tracking the specifics of that is way far out there, but next week’s warmth is unlikely to be the death knell of winter, no matter how many people will be calling for exactly that in the next 7-10 days. I would say, though, that the 2-3 weeks after the warmup will be critical to whether this winter develops a long period of significant and sustained cold weather. The season will be on the line, so to speak.
January 2, 2013 - 7:01 PM
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Incredible “non-winter” statistic from inside the Beltway: Reagan National has only been at 32 or below 7 times this entire fall/winter season! And the temperature has dropped no lower than 29 on any given day. So, as bad as it has been here, at least we can still look up on the mountains and see them coated in white, and take just a short drive to Quinwood, Monterey, Burkes Garden, or Whitetop and find snow and cold. Poor folks stuck inside the Beltway of NOVA have really had no winter whatsoever. It could always be worse.
I’ve enjoyed seeing the “white-capped” mountains around Roanoke this week.
Keep in mind the D.C. area even missed out on the Feb. 19 snow last winter, plus the March 2 clipper also went just south of them. They missed two 6+ snows to the SOUTH.
Even though it hasn’t affected our region much … huge difference in snow cover nationally last year to this one:
Snow cover 1/2/12: 18.5
http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201201/nsm_depth_2012010205_National.jpg%
Snow cover 1/2/13: 65.8%
http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201301/nsm_depth_2013010205_National.jpg
More than triple the national snow cover.
Much of that will melt in the central/eastern U.S. in next couple of weeks.
Blackburg Mike its always been like that.I`m in Marshall in Northern Fauquier County and i have not had 1 low in the teens this winter.Its always much colder out this way,but not so much this year.Kevin you are right we missed both of those snows last year.Only had between 2-3 inches late Oct 2011 then no snow the rest of the winter.So everyone on here who never gets the snow they want,you guys in Southwestern Va almost always gets more snow in the Highlands than i receive up here in Northern Va.
http://blueridgeweather.blogspot.com/
Much the same said on my blog over on the link above. Check it out and show your friends!
I went to check the snow cover from 1-2-12, but instead of getting the snowpack of 366 days ago, I got something that made me LOL. A mostly blank screen with a small message saying: (in bold letters) “Bad Request.
(then on another line) Your browser sent a request that this server could not understand.” That is close to what a waitress or waiter might say to a drunk (“boozer” instead of “browser”) who was so far gone that the server could not understand him.
Anybody else get that screen? I have tried it 3 times, and am batting 1.000, or maybe 0.00 is more appropriate.
And I have to admit that the skeptics about all the big talk (and I was one of those very guilty of the big talk here) about the October Siberian snow cover have been proven right SO FAR. That was why I was hoping to find out what happened in the winters after the 3rd and 4th and 5th largest Siberian OCT snow covers. A sample size of two is always suspect, IMHO.
I found this website theweathercentre.com and a new blog just came out about the Stratospheric Warming that is going on now and there is now solid evidence that a polar vortex collapse is probable in at least a few stratospheric levels in the next few weeks with the Polar Vortex moving due South into the US. Read for yourself at the link below. I’ve added this site to the QWC links page. I will make this the Thursday Blog subject.
http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/?m=0
Kevin and NEWxSFC have both eluded to this being a strong possibility that may occur in 2-3 weeks. If this happens, then this upcoming “January Thaw” there I said it…will be a distant memory!
And if the really cold stuff breaks loose and comes south, then the Old Farmers Almanac may just hit the target in February for cold and dry. I don’t want them to be right, and thankfully they are not real accurate.
FEBRUARY 2013: temperature 6° below avg.; precipitation 0.5″ (2″ below avg.); Feb 1-6: Snow showers, very cold; Feb 7-10: Sunny, seasonable; Feb 11-20: Snow showers, then flurries, cold; Feb 21-28: Snow, then flurries, cold.
The skeptics have been right so far in regard to the Eastern U.S. — at least south of New England. But Russia has had most extreme cold in 70 years, some of Europe has been through a cold/snowy periods and Greenland/Hudson Bay area are entering very cold phase. So maybe like so many things the concept is right but not necessarily so region-specific.
Blacksburg Mike, there is another thing at work at Reagan National. There has been plenty of talk about how Roanoke in the last few or several years has been affected by the urban heat island …. well, the effect locally is nothing compared to the u.h.i. effect of the cities of the Megalopolis. And also, and I was not aware of the following until I lived there (about 5-6 miles due south of National Airport, also on the Virginia shoreline of the Potomac River), but the Potomac River is tidal all the way up to D.C. The heat island effect is at its biggest at DCA in the winter months, I am fairly sure. The relatively warm waters of the Potomac have a small warming effect in winter on the DCA temps. Nothing like Boston with Logan Airport on the Atlantic, but still an effect.
More on the ongoing stratospheric warming situation … even invoking the specter of something similar in setup if not effects to January 1985 (-11 at Roanoke, -18 at Blacksburg, -30 at Mountain Lake)
http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/?m=0
I’m not a full buyer of this but it’s interesting.
Thanks, Captain Glen, for the link. By the way, where is The Weather Centre headquartered? From the spelling of “Centre,” I suspect Canada. That is not important, I am just curious. But I do have a question, for you and Kevin and NEWx: why do they use the word “collapse??” I think the phrase “polar vortex invasion” would be much more descriptive. When an approaching rainstorm or snowstorm “collapses,” the rain or snow disappears, it doesn’t head south.
Good point about where the effects of the Siberian Snow Cover ARE being felt in Ccanada and the U.S., Kevin, in your 9:02 comment. And one of those two “samples” was from the Siberian situation in OCT 1959. The first 9 weeks of that winter were pretty tame here in SW Virginia …… then all SNOW brook loose.
A little change of pace,but just finished watching part one of Ken Burns documentary “The Dust Bowl” on PBS. (Recorded it while on vacation a few weeks ago). Amazing photos and memories from people who lived through this historic time in weather related history!! The current drought in some of these same areas is scary,and imagine derecho-type dust storms every few days for months on end. If you get bored with he weather over the next few days,I highly recommend picking this up and watching. It also explains how much we learned about certain farming techniques that shaped the weather of those years in the early 1930′s …
Weather comment about Mass. I think my sister Donna got her dates mixed up. Orange, MASS (just 8 miles north of her town of New Salem) is at 12* now, the low for today so far, but the low tomorrow morning is forecast to be 0. Low of 14 on Friday.
Doug…
I honestly don’t know where he (Andrew) is. But I do like what he has on his blogspot and Facebook page. I’ve linked him on the QWC Links Page.
You are right, Collapse pretty much means a southward movement or shift in the Vortex from the Polar Region. Here’s a wiki link for Polar Vortex as this may help:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_vortex
I will do some more reseach and blog about on Thursday. Kevin or TQ (NEWxSFC) may know more.
I can hardly imagine what it would be like on the blog if we had another 1959-60 some winter on the blog, where winter doesn’t really decide to much of anything until Feb. 13, then dumps 5 feet of snow in as many weeks. A “winter is over” meltdown followed by week after week of snow lover ecstasy.
@Doug G, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft — January 2, 2013 @ 8:56 pm 7.
…I have to admit…the skeptics about all the big talk (and I was one of those very guilty of the big talk here) about the October Siberian snow cover have been proven right SO FAR.
—
NOTHING has been proven right ‘SO FAR’ b/c Cohen/s finding was a statistically significant correlation between the areal extent of Siberian snow cover in OCT and temperature anomalies across the northern hemisphere during meteorological winter where meteorological winter is defined as December…January…and February.
Me thinks your victory lap is a tad premature.
@Doug G, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft — January 2, 2013 @ 9:12 pm 13.
…a question, for you and Kevin and NEWx: why do they use the word “collapse??”
—
‘Collapse’ in WeatherCentre/s context refers to a reversal in the polar vortex’s (PV) circulation.
The PV/s circulation is normally cyclonic (counter-clockwise).
When the PV ‘collapses’…it spins anti-cyclonically (clockwise).
Anti-cyclonic rotation builds HIGH pressure where the general…large scale motion of the air is subsiding as opposed to LOW pressure where the general motion is ascending.
HIGH pressure over the Pole is favorable for arctic air ‘draining’ into the mid-latitudes. That/s not to say it drains everywhere equally…only that it drains. Last winter…the cold air drained over eastern Europe while the US basked in above normal temperatures.
-19 at Lake Placid NY, I just saw on Twitter.
At NEWx, I resent your labeling my comment a “victory dance.” You were inferring something that I was not implying. I happen to think that the 2nd half of winter will see plenty of cold and probably at least a decent amount of snow in SW Virginia. And I was “guilty” of momentarily restricting my comments about the lack of any decent snows here in SW Virginia so far to our region, but I acknowledged that. I have noticed that you rarely agree with other comments, that most of your comments about what others have said is to disagree. Lighten up.
However, thanks for explaining the use of “collapse” in relation to the polar vortex.
Doug G….do you deliver mail to Tower’s Mall? I ate at a restaurant there today and when leaving almost bumped into a postman and he said excuse me and for some reason I wondered if it was you. Mirko’s pasta is the best Italian place in town folks for good homemade Italian! Anyway, even channel 7′s Brent Watts went on to talk about how the SNOW LOVERS will hate the next 10-14 days. Of course, naturally, when it’s supposed to be warm it is…hahaha….why can’t they ever be wrong with the warmth!
quags – - great stuff. Enjoyed the read.
Kevin – - maybe you’ll get a bonus?
Doug – - I’m pretty sure if we had even half of 1960 – - you would be able to live with it after the Hell us snowlovers have been through the last year and a half
Everyone else — just because were going into a warm pattern for the next bit – - dont let your guard down. The Jet Stream is split flow – - the sub tropical jet is much more active – - and it’s not out of the question for something to materialize rather quickly. I’ve often found some of our best snows come in a mild pattern, when they “surprise” us by showing up on models 2-3 days out. NOT when we’re in a cold pattern for weeks and we watch storms for a 10 day period.
If we don’t get a blow coming thru one night, then we are all stuck in the dork hole of not gettin posts up and approved til 10 AM. Da day is half gone by then.
28 F and we are in the clouds/fog, no breeze and a very fine mist.
30º with freezing drizzle at my house this morning.
WD: I gotta sleep sometime. I often don’t leave the office for my “real job” till after midnight. If the weather is fairly quiet and my son doesn’t wake me up, darn right it’s going to be 9 a.m. or later before I get up and touch the blog.
WD, I’m with you. Our household is an early morning one and I am often reading the previous night’s postings anywhere from 6 to 8 AM. Most of the bloggers on this blog are a late night crowd!
Kevin: We know you have to sleep sometime. We are just having a little fun. Honestly, I can’t see how so many of you can stay up that late. I guess I am too old for it.
Leo Lady: I put a smiley face on my comment. … But it is true, though.
Today’s place to see significant snow: The Big Bend country of Texas.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_psnow_gt_04.gif
Some high elevation areas down there, so it’s not really that surprising it would snow so far south. It is very dry there, normally, so moisture is often at a premium.
Well, I won’t complain if it doesn’t snow next week, because I’ll be in Florida!! Sorry snow lovers, I want it to wait until I’m back home. Winter photography is one of my favorites. Kind of glad I’m not in NY now. I a friend just posted about temps in Utica being in the negatives too. Brrrr!! Someone posted the temp from some place in Russia yesterday and it was -54!!! I just don’t think I can even imagine those temps!
Hoping for good weather in O-town next week. I’ll be at Disney with my 2 year old granddaughter and her family!
I keep hearing about the collapse of the Polar Vortex and the Southern Blog of Accuweather talked about it last night. I remember the cold outbreak of 1985. Temp dropped to 20 below at Tri-Cities and Washington Co saw 25-30 below. It was coldddd! However, accuweather extended forecaast through 01/27 shows no day below 40. I guess there is much uncertainty about the possible cold snap. Guess I better get some more wood in just in case and make sure the generator is working. I am a snow lover but not sure I want a repeat of 1985. Also, we ended up with 7″ of snow the night the artic chill arrived in our part of the woods.
I remember January ’89 started off really warm (near 60s in Richmond, where I grew up) only to have three weekends of consecutive, measurable snowstorms in February. I worked for a grocery store at the time and remember the lines stretching all the way back to frozen foods in the days leading into those snows. I won’t stick a fork in winter until we hit April 30.
Yankin your chain Kevin. I know your hours. And then throw a youngen in the monkey works at 3 AM and it makes for a late mornin.I use to hoot with the owls, but now I’ve adopted the habits of roosters and chickens. Few mornings catch me in bed at 5 and most times it’s 4. Then I watch for the chickens. Still ain’t got above 37 here, but at least the wind has laid and the suns peeping thru. Really don’t feel that cold. Good day to cut up some downed trees.
Accuweather says the snow cover for the USA on Jan. 1, 2013 was 67%, the highest in the last 10 years.
WD: Are they saying highest in last 10 years for this date, or last 10 years period? Gotta think it was more in Feb 2010 when 49 states had some snow cover. Will check later.
Here’s what they say. I take it to mean as of Jan. 1, 2013, not the whole year. Just on this date.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/january-1-snow-coverage-sets-n-1/3522235
@by Kevin Myatt — January 2, 2013 @ 9:09 pm 12.
…January 1985 (-11 at Roanoke, -18 at Blacksburg, -30 at Mountain Lake)
—
Weather maps for 21-JAN-85 where record lows temperartures were observed.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1985/us0121.php
Agree Kevin…Feb 13 2010 had over 68 percent coverage..
here is a graphic from Feb 2010..
It was a deep south storm that put
it over the top..as you might expect.
Does anybody know why the Blacksburg NWS has the whole coverage area in a Hazardous Weather Outlook tan shading? I’ve seen it happen before, but when you click the link on your local forecast, it names off the counties, but says nothing.
1994 was a very snowy year too…
here are a few years with Louisville totals
back to the late 1800′s
15.5” January 17, 1994
15.0” December 8, 1917
12.9” November 2, 1966
12.0” March 22, 1968
11.6” February 4, 1998
11.0” February 1, 1966
10.5” February 17, 1910
10.4” January 14, 1918
10.0” March 30, 1887
9.5” February 25, 1961
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/lmk/louisville_cli_pdf/top_ten_snowiest_days.pdf
Matt: The Hazardous Weather Outlook mentions a chance of mixed precipitation Sunday morning in many counties of Southwest Virginia. Will discuss with next blog post.
WD: Saw the Accuweather article, it is indeed the greatest snow cover on Jan. 1 in 10 years. 10 years ago was the 2002-03 winter, which was a slightly above normal snowfall winter locally, and much above normal not far north of us.
Joe, no mention was made of Feb. in any year.
Scott Saunders, no, I have never delivered to Towers Mall. For nearly all of my Roanoke years I have delivered strictly to zip 24017 in NW Roanoke, well west of I-581.
Zach, yes that I now have a walking route, I should be able to survive fine.
Looking at the latest runs of Euro and GFS … I’m willing to go up to 10 days for the warmup, but not much longer. And we might get a soaking rain somewhere in there, too.
I made the mention of Feb myself..
The research indicated Feb had 68
percent coverage.
You mean a ridin route Mr. Griggs?
Considering overall snow coverage..I found
this quite an interesting piece.
http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/sotc/snow_extent.html
Doug,,,It could be worse..a lot worse.
http://essentialpcbackup.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/funny-windows-error1.jpg
Had a lengthly post that flew off into space somewhere, so here’s the condensed version. “Bigens” generally fail to materialize when called 2/3 days out. Moderate/medium are around 50/50. A slider outta the NW usually has the best chance to drop 2/4 inches. And then there’s the surprise. Usually comes in spring when there’s no notice. However, sometimes it’s nailed early on. Take 93. Link below. One of the best calls the NWS has made since D-Day. And one they never let up on. They repeatly told folks it was coming, but with their track record of crying wolf, most folks disregarded it. And got burned bad.
http://wintercast.tripod.com/id24.html
You weather gurus might want to click the link I put up, not cause I put it up or have any idea what they’re saying, but to look at the terminology they used 19 years ago.
Dec. 18-19, 2009, is the only “big’un” (I define as widespread 12+ inches) since I’ve been doing this blog in our immediate area and it was pretty well called in the 1-2-day range — didn’t start becoming clear til 48 hours out.
Since ’99, when I first came to Roanoke, I can remember no other 12+ snow call for Roanoke/Blacksburg area; can’t speak to any before that time. Some sources had the President’s Day storm of 2003 projected 12+ for our area, but never the weather service — they correctly called for mostly sleet/ice. Jan. 25, 2000, was not called at all until 12-18 hours in advance and ended up dumping 8-12 inches at Lynchburg and 12+ to the east, but didn’t quite make it far enough west to affect us.
Jan. 25-26, 2011, was the last winter storm warning I recall that resulted in minimal amounts for Roanoke/Blacksburg area. The mid-December snow previously that winter somewhat underperformed winter storm warnings due to sleet mix, but not by a large margin — lots of 2-4 amounts instead of 4-6 forecast.
March 30, 2003, ended up overshooting forecasts at lower elevations by a large margin, including about 6 tree-buckling inches in much of the Roanoke Valley where no accumulation was forecast, even more in the New River Valley.
2009-10 forecasts were pretty solid, including some from several days out on the latter two 6-12-inch storms that winter. The three winters before that had basically one widespread event each, and each of those slightly overperformed forecasts in at least parts of our area.
This is not intended to either agree or disagree with WD’s post. Just thinking back on recent winters and forecasted snow events.
I think ones memory remembers the busts more often than the good calls. At least it seems to me. Guilty as charged, or as the judge ask the defendant, how do you plead sir? Not innocent your honor, said the defendant
Zach, Kevin, Quags, etc.: all of you folks who really know the models and the ins and outs of weather outlooks, count me in as definitely believing that this winter could easily be a “Tale of Two Halves … of Winter.” Massive cold air still there in Canada, and now the cold and some snow has invaded New England and upstate New York after a very tame first 4 weeks of December and earlier. Remember that guy Spengler who set fires in a town just north of Rochester, NY (on the shores of Lake Ontario) and then shot at firemen, roughly two weeks ago? Webster, NY. What struck me were the scenes of the yards. Either no snow or very little, in late DECEMBER!!! In most other late Decembers there would be at least 8 inches of snow on the ground up there, if not feet. Well, I bet those yards do have quite a bit of snow now, although I could be wrong.
My point is that the cold air and snow is now much closer to SW Virginia that they were a month or even 3 weeks ago. If the southward trend continues, JJF will be exclaiming “WINNING!!” and this blog will have comments in the hundreds for each thread.
Yes, Mr. Brand, I had “senior moment” number 498. Thanks for catching that error. I of course meant riding route. I was about to add one more sentence to that comment, namely that my biggest threats in a sizable snow cover will/would be getting to and back from work and watching out for some “loon” going way too fast and then slamming on the brakes and skidding into my truck. And after adding that sentence I would have gone back through the comment (hey, it is one of my few virtues …. I do that about 90% of the time) and caught the stupid wrong word. But “the boss” came in and wanted me to post the comment and close this window.
I’ve got a newspaper clipping from 1960 in my desk drawer that shows almost every snow from Feb. 13 to March 16 in that epic winter significantly under-forecast. It started with the first one:
Forecast, Feb. 13: “Mixed rain and snow with possibility of a small accumulation in Roanoke and an inch or more in Southwest Virginia.”
Result: 15.7 inches in Roanoke, 18-20 in Southwest Virginia (which by the definition of that day was everything to the southwest of Roanoke)
Well … I guess 18-20 is more than an inch.
Michael Hoback, re: your 9:53 AM comment, if there is another epic Arctic invasion (and please don’t tell us that the NWS or CPC will call that some sort of “collapse,” also!!), then Kevin or Rick or Quags or I should be able to give a 4- or 5-day alert that it is a real possibility. The AO — Arctic Oscillation — readings will be dropping into extremely negative territory ahead of that. At least that is what happened in January 1985 and during a few other brutally cold spells.
I can tell from the tone of the newspaper articles in 1960 that it was presumed that nearly everybody was a snow hater in that era.
It used to bug me on Arkansas newscasts in the 1970s-80s, in my youth, when winter warming trends reaching the 70s were greeted with shouts of joy. My young meteorological mind thought: You’re cheering people losing their homes in tornadoes, because that’s what almost always happens when it gets that warm there in winter.
May be a risk in some of the central and southern U.S. next week.
Mr. Brand, I just made a mistake that I think you made a few days ago. Was just about done with a new comment, hit some button down near the bottom of the keyboard (I don’t even know which one), and POOF, comment gone in the ether. Anyway, I also remember the busts {very fondly of course :>) :>)}. But I also remember very well (with shivers down my spine) the three big snowstorms of 2009-10. I guess that I most remember the extremes.
The winter that I do not remember the snowfalls very well is the drought-busting winter of 2002-03. It was a godsend for our reservoirs, especially Carvin’s Cove, which was 30+ feet down in October 2002. But I don’t remember the 7 or 8 little or (couple of) moderate snowfalls of that winter. I do remember that several of the postal customers emphasized to me that it had been a looooong time since they could remember a winter with so many snowfalls. I do remember one curious thing now …. often the north side of the street would become snowless fairly quickly after a snowfall, but the south side of the street would still have piles from a previous snow plus the current snowfall would not melt, either. Difference of course was how much sun the front yards got.
One side of the street while doing a loop would have treacherous footing, while on the other side the snow on one’s footwear would melt and the walking would be easy. I think one Saturday I chose to wear boots. I was delivering an item that needed a signature to a home on the north (snowless) side, and the homeowner saw my boots and asked “Why on earth are you wearing those?” I replied, “Please look across the street, sir.” The man left for work early and returned around dusk Mon-Fri. He said, “Omigosh, you’re right!” It was spring and winter on the same loop, with many loops like that.
I have come to realize that Winter is exactly like my Dallas Cowboys, its had great seasons and eventually it will break through and snow again or in Dallas case make the playoffs again. LOL Funny how the last real winter we had was the same year Dallas was in the playoffs! Winter 09-10
That drought-busting winter of 2002-03. Anybody want to guess when Carvin’s Cove reached full reservoir after being down more than 30 feet in October 2002? I am not sure of the date or week, but I am fairly sure of the month. Remember, once the leaves are off the trees, the runoff into a reservoir is much stronger/bigger.
The posts about the record cold temps in Jan. 1985 are bringing back memories. We had to cancel a ski trip to Snowshoe a few weeks before that because it was too warm and we picked that weekend to go! We skiied Saturday but it was so cold on Sunday that they closed the slopes, after one of the lifts stopped and the skiiers on it had to be rescued. We were told it was -40 that night, -120 wind chill. You could not go outside without every inch of skin being completely covered. Just about every vehicle on the mountain froze up and no one could leave. It was Super Bowl Sunday too, so about 10 of us crashed in a one bedroom condo to cheer the 49ers to victory. We finally got off the mountain when someone from home brought a tarp and a space heater to us to thaw out our van! We definitely learned the importance of using gas line antifreeze that weekend!
I just received three e-mails that had been shared with “yakking” back and forth between my sister Susie in Ipswich, Mass. and her son (my nephew) Matt in Lafayette, Louisiana (about 60 miles west of Baton Rouge). Susie sent Matt (and cc’ed me) a photo from this morning of her thermometer, just outside her deck window. Zero degrees. No description. Matt wrote back (he lived his entire life in Ipswich until he moved to LA 3 years ago), “I’m not going to lie … I really don’t miss those days.” A nephew after my own heart.
Then Matt’s wife Elizabeth added a comment (she lived most of her life in Lafayette), “Ouch!!! Just took the trash out and it’s a chilly 50 degrees.”
Everything is relative, boys and girls.
Winning!I would love to JJF say it while eating at BK!
Not just yet. Still have a ways to go. But yes, the cold is about as close as it will get to us but first the warmth comes. I see Kevin has mentioned a risk of severe weather for the south late next week. At this point, anything can happen. THE AO and NAO show no signs of going severely negative just yet.
Kevin..
I have a pretty good memory of how
the forecasts went back in the late 60-s
and 70-s.
Even the day before the event as I remember it..
Even if it had a chance of being a major event
it seemed to me ROA NWS would start off 4 to 6 inches forecast
then once it started they’d nowcast their way up to at times 10 inches
..Im not sure I ever remember a time when an 8 inch event was predicted even a day out…much less 2 days.
We are after all talking about the Mid-Atlantic…one of the iffiest forecasting zones in the U.S.
I can tell you this…not having weather radar or satellites when I was a kid all we had was AM radio…and I would beam if the forecast would be upped a couple of times. And I’d listen to the old-timers say..”those guys just dont know” We-ve come a long way…but some of those ideas are still
fairly entrenched in the hollows and “shadows” of the dopplers.
On the other hand ..I think it-d be stealing money to be a winter forecaster in Alpena Mich.
SUPER COMMENT, Megster!!! Yes, those wind chill figures you mentioned were the ones that were under the “old” system … which I am a huge advocate of. But I have ranted here on that subject a few times before, so I will say no more for a change on that.
Meanwhile, the Griggsy is awaiting his first guess by a “contestant” on the month in which Carvin’s Cove regained full reservoir back in 2002-03. The excitement is almost too much ….. C’mon, Meg, make a guess.
wd, are you still awake? How about a guess from you? You will probably nail it.
Thanks for commenting, Glen! But are you sure that there are no signs of the AO going steeply negative? Link to today’s AO ensemble: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml Look at the right side of the top graph, with all the red “spaghetti” lines. More than half of them show a fairly steep nosedive around the 15th to 17th, with some going steeply negative. That nosedive was not really there on yesterday’s runs. The GFS NAO outlook shows the same sharp nosedive on its 14-day graph. My gosh, January 21, 1985 was the 2nd inauguration of a president (Reagan). The festivities and celebration for Pres. Obama’s 2nd inauguration will also be on ….. Monday, January 21st!!! Twilight Zone?
Meg..
I know exacatly what you mean..
I and 3 of my pals drove to Snowshoe
from Rocky Mount in early 75 I think..
I think it may have been the second year
of operation. I remember 2 things They stopped skiing
because the windchill was -60. They had no lodging.
We slept in a Ford Econoline van in a parking lot..
No heat. 4 or 5 communal blankets and sleeping bags were all we had.
our boots were stuck to the shag carpet the next morning.
Yes…even in our early 20-s we werent sure we made the right move.
..side note…Jean Claude Killy was there at the site..had been skiing
there..He went through the food line at the ski rental area.
Im guessing he was there to ski the trail he designed…”Cupp Run”
Kevin wasn’t that March 30th 2003 snow preceded by an ice storm around the 27th/28th? I remember driving home from the hospital after my daughter was born and seeing all the split and fallen pear trees on Grandin road.
Nope, Todd. High temperatures were in the 60s and 70s and lows never dropped below freezing (in Roanoke) from March 21-29. Cold front came in fast early Sunday morning the 30th and changed rain to snow. The snow was heavy and wet and did a number on lots of trees around here, but it didn’t start falling till about 6-7 a.m. on the 30th.
Ok thanks. She did come home the evening of the 30th (my wife tells me….women tend to remember things like that….I’m happy I remember her birthday
The snow really did a number on the pear trees that had already grew quite a bit of leaves. I thought it was ice…my bad!
In the 1985 rerun department … meteorologist Brad Panovich of Charlotte posted this on Twitter/Facebook off the 18Z GFS … that white/gray area snaking down through western Virginia would be below-zero temps on January 19.
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=1183827&l=614bd3d314&id=162655917140206
This most likely won’t verify, and may at this point be entirely off its rocker with timing (plus of course it’s an “off-hour” run, not a 0Z or 12Z), but it can stoke the discussion a bit.
1985 redux would not necessarily be a boon for snow lovers. Only 6 inches at Roanoke that entire winter. Some of the areas in the I-77 corridor and west got a lot more upslope snow with the initial outbreak of Arctic air.
I got 3 times more snow than Roanoke in Arkansas that winter.
Some historical Catawba tidbits and snowflakes..
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ussc/USSCAppController?action=snowfall_topten&state=44&station=CATAWBA%20HOSPITAL&coopid=441471¶m=10
@Doug G, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft — January 3, 2013 @ 8:50 pm 70.
…are you sure that there are no signs of the AO going steeply negative? Link to today’s AO ensemble: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml
Look at the right side of the top graph, with all the red “spaghetti” lines. More than half of them show a fairly steep nosedive around the 15th to 17th, with some going steeply negative.
—
One should also ‘look at’ the D+10 correlation coefficient (CORR) value of 0.5023…which means the GFS ensembles’ 10-day AO forecast explains only 25% (0.5023^2) of the index’s variability…IOW…don’t be betting the farm or counting chickens or planning a victory lap on _any_ D+10 AO forecast.
Good link, Joe. The Catawba hospital station ran from 1910 to 1977. Too bad it didn’t continue to present times. Would offer a good non-urban-heat-island comparison to Roanoke Regional.
But, Joe, I gotta think the Feb-March 1960 numbers on snowfall for Catawba are a bit undercooked — only 39 inches when Roanoke got 57?
maybe more coastal storms?>?
No clue..That does look like a bit of disparity.
Who knows..maybe the linen person person measured
the snow too. And maybe they let it “pack ” a little
before rolling outta bed?
I agree, NEWx. But the number of models showing the nosedive is definitely something to be monitored. They could change quickly, eradicating or lessening the decrease.
We had an event back in either late October or November that proves your point. The 14-day graph for either the NAO or AO kept showing one thing, but the 7-day and 10-day did not agree. Once a week had gone by, the 7-day and 10-day were validated, and the previous 14-day outlook never happened.
Yes Kevin…was thinking the exact
same thing as I looked at Catawba site..
Would make a nice comparison…
Maybe it would be a good place
for Tech to re-establish themselves.
Especially measuring the effects of
Valley Heat Pooling.
(Are you listening Tech?)
THAT Catawba location would have been awesome!!! An environment that probably has the same level of development today as all those decades ago. Then the comparisons over time would truly have meaning, because we would be comparing apples to apples IMO. I feel sure that if the Catawba location had continued, it too would show an increase in temps over the years. I don’t think it would show the same increase in daily low temps as RRA has, however. But we will never know.
The March storm was an historical Nor’easter for certain..
Seems like maybe that was the latter winter pattern possibly?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1960_nor'easter
Some very good analysis of the Feb-Mar 1960 series of snows
for the area from Roanoke to the SW.
http://www.easternsnow.org/proceedings/2006/perry_and_konrad.pdf
Gonna be a cold one tonight here in Woodlawn…clear sky and 26* already. Bet we hit he teens by early am…
DT has a big announcement tomorrow morning to talk about the current weather situation! Bet he is gonna say cold has been pushed back to May. LOL
Im not necessarily sure thats true Doug..
Some things can be extrapolated from the old data..
even if not official..
Not only that..even starting over with a good solid
study can answer a lot of questions such as the heat
island theory.
The Catawba hospital is affiliated with UVA..
..Maybe UVA and Tech could work together off the football fields..
Just a thought.
… and VT has a 377-acre “Sustainability Center” just down the road from Catawba Hospital.
My guess is Tolleris will talk about the timeframe
11-12 Jan.
Jared…u remind me of a guy I work with. He-s a Mets fan.
,,when they lose he says they suck..when they win he says theyll suck soon.
Kevin…its your ball..
…AND…I work very cheap.
Now…get busy.
OK, despite the overwhelming number of replies, no one guessed when Carvin’s Cove regained full reservoir status during the winter of 2002-03. And probably no one else cares, either, Doug.
The answer was January 2003. Pretty sure that it was in the 2nd half of the month. I was stunned at the time. Without any help from a tropical system, either, I am pretty sure.
Doug, I was withholding my guesses to allow others to jump in. But I thought it was later in the year, like April or May. Let me see if I can find something concrete on that in our archives.
Speaking of drought — that’s the focus of my new post I’m about to put up. It’s a bit of a “dry” subject (ha ha) but there’s nothing terribly exciting in our short-term weather. Down the road — I think the second half of January may get very interesting.
Aw, c’mon joe. Poor Jared has to put up with all of my teasing, with an occasional dose from John from Ruckersville. I bet DT will talk about what we have already seen mentioned here …. a possible big cold snap about the 19th or so.
And it sounds like the Mets fan that you work with, joe, studied Cubs fans earlier.
Hey Check out the lad Kevin!!!
http://www.roanoke.com/weather/apr04.html
Info here too on the drought…