There may be a wait for it, but snow is on the way (UPDATE 12:15 AM)
WINTER STORM WARNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FLOOD WATCH THURSDAY (additional rain/snow may cause some high streams to overflow)
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UPDATE 12:15 AM, 1/17: Forecast guidance this evening seems to be a little colder with potential earlier start time for snowfall, perhaps by midafternoon. With that, and continued guidance on amounts, I’m raising the top end of my Roanoke Valley area snow total to 3-7 inches (also east to Bedford and north to Lexington), and opening up the top of the New River Valley snow total (including Floyd County) to 5-10 inches. Staying at 6-10 but expecting some locally 12+ amounts in I-77 corridor and near West Virginia border. This is a very fluid situation that will depend largely on just when snow begins and how quickly the lower atmosphere cools. I’ll plan a morning update — first on this blog entry, and then a brand new one — to take us into a day of “nowcasting” to see what really happens with this interesting setup, not what a computer projects. END UPDATE
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ORIGINAL 7 P.M. 1/16 ENTRY:
For a summary … go to the last paragraph.
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Thursday may be a miserable day for hard-core snow lovers.
Before you freak out (or celebrate, if you’re inclined otherwise), I’m NOT saying it won’t snow. In fact, I think it will snow several inches (read 3+ inches) in most of our region. But, for snow lovers, it’s going to be a long day of agonizing waiting, anticipating, watching as a cold rain pelts down in puddles created by the 2-5 inches of rain we just got. The radar’s not going to look impressive at times. You’re going to think it’s too warm to snow. And for a while, you’ll be right. It’s just a matter of when and how it all comes together .. when an upper-level low closes off, goes “negative tilt,” triggers a surface low and begins the processes that will pull the freezing level lower that can turn whatever rain is falling into snow. Once it gets going, it may not take long to get flakes flying across our region, with a relatively short but heavy thump of wet snow likely late Thursday afternoon to mid Thursday evening. (Think 2-10 p.m. as the likely “prime time” for this snow event.)
The early snow lover angst deals with the inevitable back and forth of model runs. So far, the 18Z NAM’s slip south of the storm so that snow cuts off at I-64 and is somewhat reduced in much of our region is an outlier. The 18Z GFS’ massive dump of heavy wet snow on two-thirds of Virginia may be an outlier the other direction. But all of the models for several runs now have been showing a period of heavy wet snow for 3-6 hours, sometimes even longer, over Southwest Virginia. The timing of the start and the exact amounts are still a bit in flux, as they should be, considering that a variance of 25 miles in the storm’s track or a few tenths of an inch of moisture or a few tenths of a degree over a few hundred feet of the atmosphere can have substantial impact on the fine details. We’ve been through the model ping-pong and speculation game many times before with winter storms on this blog. (Pictured at left, Hydrometeorological Prediction Center map of risk for 4-plus inches, the red signifying a high risk.)
The trend I am most going to watch is not the moisture – it’s going to be there. Barring an extreme shift north or south, it’s not even the storm’s track – there is enough north- south margin that most of Southwest Virginia is going to be in some pretty heavy duty precipitation even with slight movements north or south. Some readers closer to Lexington and Buena Vista may be affected more if the 18Z NAM southerly track and northern cut-off becomes the expected course of events. The trend I am watching is the timing and depth of cold air. Both of the recent runs of the GFS and NAM bring cold air southward just a bit earlier than before. Starting the snow at 2 p.m. instead of 5 p.m. could make a huge difference in snow totals for any given location. On the flip side, the later it goes before the cold air advection and dynamic cooling take over with the developing storm system, the lesser the amounts will be.
Right now, here’s where I’m at with the snow: 3-5 inches Roanoke Valley east to Bedford and north to Lexington; 5-8 inches New River Valley and southern Blue Ridge (Floyd area, higher elevations western Franklin and Patrick counties); 7-10 inches along the I-77 corridor and West Virginia border (Grayson County, Galax, Wytheville, up to Giles, Craig, Alleghany counties); 2-4 inches from Smith Mountain Lake’s southern shore through Southside. But I’m close to being persuaded upward in some areas if colder trends continue on the 0Z forecast models later this evening. And then … mercifully … we’ll be largely past the model-watching phase and into “nowcasting.” The blessings of a storm system that we haven’t been watching run-by-run for an entire week.
January 16, 2013 - 7:01 PM
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Long-time lurker here.
Kevin, congratulations for being the only forecaster to see this baby coming a week ago!
Not going to yell it just yet, but I will whisper a “woop woop”
I’m looking forward to the prospect of a moderate to major snow here in Carroll County. I retired from VDOT in April 2010 and now I get excited instead of sick thinking we might get a “biggun”.
really Brad…??
here is my post from Jan 5.
26.Models im looking at show a steep invasion of cold air
(5400) line in central Texas early morning the 13th..
ahead of it strong storms possible over La and Mississippi..
by daybreak or so as of now expect precip to be apchng SWVA..
5400 line in western NC and SWVA early morning of the 18th..
looks like an easing of the cold air somewhat by the 20th in SWVA.
Comment by joe — January 5, 2013 @ 3:12 pm
Cold weather mixed with precipitation always rocks!
Congrats Joe on mentioning this that far back.
I certainly don’t claim to be the only one to have foreseen this system. Glad I at least kept mentioning it all week when some other sources dropped off.
Kevin, I know you don’t need a reminder but the mom in me is making me do it anyways. Remember to get some sleep! Thanks for all the hard work you do!
I will be taking your advice for at least 5 hours tonight, Amanda. Same as my mom’s advice, and my son’s mom’s advice.
What places would lean towards going up on Kevin?
Check out this contrast: Point and click forecast for Northern Rockbridge County (NWS Blacksburg) calls for around 1 inch, but point and click forecast for Southern Augusta County (NWS Sterling) calls for 8″-14″. Can anyone recall ever seeing such an incredible discrepancy over a distance of one mile? As for WDBJ versus DT……as much as I hate to admit it, WDBJ is correct much more often than the hypemaster DT. One last thing, any idea when/if the Blacksburg radar will come back on line? What a terrible time for it to be down.
Sorry Joe.
Missed yours.
I hate those point and click forecasts. Not the concept, the execution.
NWS knows I feel this way.
Last I saw/heard, NWS-Blacskburg expects radar to be back online in the morning. Just in time.
There are actually quite a few showers around this evening. We’re nowhere near snowmaking temps tonight, with mid-upper 40s, and similar dew points.
Does anyone realize it hit 61 at Hillsville today? And it might be in one of the heavier areas for snow by tomorrow night.
I looked out the window at 5:00 at work and thought the same thing Kevin. 60 now maybe 8 inches on the ground in 24 hours. Crazy.
CSV Crossville Tennessee is about the edge of the “crossover”
line as of now…they are plus 3c…forecast mixed pellets and rain all night..all snow around noon tomorrow..
not a good day to be out…winds from the NW gusts to 20kts with snow..
yall get some extra hot choco tonight..
itll be better than a movie.
Looking forward to whatever the snow does. Somewhat off-topic: seems like the Blacksburg radar is down every few months. Is this regular maintenance or are these unreliable beasts, or both?
Kevin I particular liked your part about you having enough north-south margin where no matter what happens you’ll likely be under the precipitation shield for some time. I wish that were true for northern VA! This is a typical nightmare forecast up here….D.C. could get anywhere from 0-6″ depending on the storm track which will determine the sharp cutoff on the northern edge. If that snow line lands 10 mi. south of D.C. there will be death threats handed out to us forecasters up here!
Hello everyone!
Hi KP!
So we SW Virginians might get both the 70s highs and the snowfall that DC miss in just a matter of 5 days?
Kevin, I go to school at JMU but am from the Roanoke area and am so excited about the possibility of snow. What kind of prediction are you giving the Harrisonburg area?
What should we be looking for temp. wise over the next 18 to 24 hrs.
What are you expecting, what could be seen as colder then expected trends?
Good Luck Kathryn! Keep your head down.
Here’s another forecaster opinion from Allen Huffman in Raleigh. He’s got our area in 4-8 inches, locally more.
http://www.examiner.com/article/southeast-winter-storm-update
Jill: Harrisonburg’s snow is going to depend on which scenario plays out, the moisture spreading north to DC or stopping at I-64, or something in between. My lean would be you get some snow tomorrow. You are under a winter storm warning, so the weather service thinks you’re in business.
Haha thanks Leo Lady!
Kevin it is COMPLETELY possible you get both the 70-degree temps and snow that D.C. misses out on. Don’t get me started on this weekend’s wedge that kept us from reaching even the 60s….:P
non-weather related: Kathryn, studied abroad with your sister a few years ago. Keep up the good work and enjoy having you around here from time to time!
My forecast is for 4-8 with some forecasts giving a 10% chance of 12+. Put the snowblower behind the bike and it started on the first pull. I’m ready.
00z NAM coming in much colder then 18z! Looks to be almost all snow.
KP and Kevin,
Yep, the cynicism factor regarding weather forecasters is at an all time high in the DC area after last weekend’s busted forecast, otherwise known as the “Wedge That Wouldn’t Go Away”. If the snow forecast for this week also busts for that area I don’t think I’d admit to being a weather geek to anyone from there.
I wonder if the snowier forecasts of Allen Huffman, WSLS and you, Kevin, will come into agreement with the less snowy forecast of WDBJ7. That sentence does not mean what it may sound like, because WDBJ7 may change its forecast to agree with the three of you. Reed/Watts were using a model (RPM?) in both their 5:20 and 6:20 weathercasts that shows the system exiting stage east very quickly, by 8 PM. That seems unlikely from what I have seen elsewhere. They also forecasted that the rain will be very late in changing to snow here in ROA, somewhere around 2 PM. But in that part of their forecast you seem to agree with them (see above).
WDBJ7 is notoriously conservative in forecasting snow. For example, they were extremely late in forecasting big amounts for December 18th-19, 2009. But once in a while they are extremely accurate, too. Like January 26, 2011.
Salem Golf Course how cool! I understand if you don’t want to conceal your real name on here, but any identifying characteristics you can give me so I can tell her we spoke? She will be thrilled!
Best guess of what time it will hit the NRV? Don’t worry, I won’t hold you to it.
Thanks for checking in, Ken from Marion. I for one really hope that you continue posting here throughout the year. Many is the time we have seen spring, summer, and early autumn rainy systems do well through Washington, Grayson, and your county (Smyth, right?), then start to fall apart just east or ENE of you.
And to both Leo Lady and John of Indian Valley, condolences on the recent deaths of loved ones.
I’m of the opinion that local forecasters should not veer too far from a National Weather Service forecast when warnings are in play. There’s a reason for the warning, and I don’t think undercutting the totals and severity of potential impacts being forecast in that warning is a great idea. But that might just be me.
We frequently have a narrow streak through Virgina (Grayson, Smyth and Tazewell) where the weather forecast is worse than the surrounding area. I guess it is because the mountains are higher through here than in the rest of Virginia. We match Ashe County in NC and some counties in WV.
I REFUSE to believe that snow totals are cut in half LOL. I’m still banking on the higher numbers or at least hoping for it!
Just sending a little gratitude your way. This blog is always information-rich; thank you for commitment and hard work!
New NAM (0Z) snowfall map.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znamsnow_SE036.gif
6 inch line through Roanoke, more to southwest down I-81 corridor.
For those north, here’s how it looks in northern Virginia (and all the way to Maine)
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znamsnow_NE036.gif
Kevin is the only weather guru i have read the last few years and he has been spot on. Keep up the great work.
Founding member of the TWLS dropping in… the excitement was palpable at school today between the kids and staff alike! Hope it does actually snow… just enough to get after school activities tomorrow cancelled, school on Friday… but then clears up enough for me to hit the road to head to the Northern Neck (Colonial Beach) sometime Friday!
Was it the blogger henry that asked if it was a Two-Loaf storm??! LOL! KM should post little loaves of bread and gallons of milk icons on the blog when storms are coming so we can get the total picture at a glance….mmmm, this one is going to be a two-loafer and a gallon storm. My boys are all grown now so bread and milk are not the things I need in prep for being socked in. There are better things than that….;)
I have a haircut tomorrow at 3…I won’t be happy if it gets cancelled. As my VT students would say on Twitter #firstworldproblems
It’ll be interesting if the next run of the GFS shows something akin to what the 18Z run had. It’s usually the NAM that’s overdoing it but in this case, the GFS has been a bit more bullish.
Been following this blog for over a year, so maybe it’s time for a post… My husband thinks we may be a cult? ;>) What I appreciate the most is the lighthearted repartee and the spirit of the group, happily anticipating snow, most of us, and the snow-dreaders banding together in good natured grumbling when a white forecast emerges. A certain energy takes hold of the blog whenever a storm is in the making. Thanks to Kevin and all of you regulars…it is a refreshing change from some of the more serious aspects of life and news!
I agree with Amanda, Momma Doppler is recommending you get some rest before this hits. I am thinking you will be quite busy tomorrow afternoon and evening and will need to have your ‘wits about you’.
45 and earlier light rain up here on Doppler Ridge
I keep telling the folks in the house that this is the only blog to read and they need to get ready for the snow. Just now they tell me they are not worried, that from what they’re reading we’ll only get about an inch if we’re lucky. On that note, I did stop at the store and bought my goodies for the next few days. They are not allowed to touch them:-)
I think your goodies will be safe. Watch Boone, Bristol and Wytheville when you wake up in the morning. They will set the tone.
I did go pick up a loaf of bread and some chocolate LOL. The chocolate is a must have at my house if anyone is to tolerate me if we are snowed in and honestly, the bread usually gets crumbled up and given to the birds LOL. I am praying my hubby makes it home tomorrow before all this gets started. He is starting in western WVA, making his way across to Lewisburg and then down 64 to 81 to home.
RPM…Really? Waste of time…yawn
DT’s starting to back off counts up here in C’ville, but NWS is saying 6-10″ here tomorrow plus additional 1-3″ overnight thursday.
Getting ready to hit the sack, but doing so with my fingers crossed!!
Hogwaller Scott signing out.
Brave, brave words, Captain Quags, at 9:49, mocking the RPM. For your sake, I hope that you are right. I just watched R. Reed give a brief summary of his forecast on MY19, and they are showing snow starting at 1 PM in Blacksburg and ROA, but still making an exit by 8 PM. So his stations (WDBJ7 and MY19) are not “blinking ….. yet.
Kevin, I realize that you are probably very busy, but do you continue to see the moisture lasting into the wee hours of Friday? From what I can discern among all the forecasts and comments, that seems to be the big issue. Whether the precip/snow ends about 8 PM, or lasts for quite a few hours after that.
One more thing. RR is still predicting a measly 2 inches for Roanoke, some 3s and very few 4s for regions south and SW.
I don’t think it goes past 10 p.m. Thursday night. So not a big issue with the early exit. It’s going to be a fast, hard snow and then done.
TY, tyvm, Kevin.
Looking at the national radar tonight … the most important thing to see is not all the moisture streaming in patches through the Southeast, but the spin of just a few showers over Louisiana and Mississippi. That’s our upper-level vortex that will be the trigger for tomorrow’s action.
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/index_loop.php
Doug: Thank you for your kind thoughts. One of the things I am most looking forward to with this snow tomorrow evening is standing outside with the falling snow deadening the sounds of the city. It always seems so quiet, so peaceful and so beautiful. I can’t wait.
Yesterday afternoon I gave my sister-in-law a ride home from downtown Roanoke and during the trip I told her that there was going to be a snow storm Thursday night into Friday morning. She said she had not seen the first report of it and didn’t believe me. She thought I was crazy! When I saw her again today, I mentioned the winter storm warning. She had finally heard about that. I so enjoyed teasing her. Thank you bloggers for keeping informed ahead of the local met reports!
Kevin,
Do you have any snowfall prediction totals for the Bristol and Abingdon area of southwest Virginia?
Long-time lurker and native Roanoker now living in Pittsburgh – love the blog. All this talk about the Southern storm is overshadowing discussion of the possible cold next week – how’s the Arctic outbreak looking? And from a fellow snow lover: here’s to a good Virginia snowfall.
Renee: I would group you in with I-77 corridor and say 7-10 inches.
NO!! The NAM is totally killing our snow in Greene, damn I am starting to weather. These models just enjoy torturing me! I sure hope the GFS holds onto some snow for us here in Greene. How can it show 12″ in Charlottesville and then a few hours later show hardly anything? These models are just haywire!
OK all you fellow TWLS members…who else is ready for an early dismissal in the morning? I’m thinking eat breakfast and then stick them all back on the ol’ cheesewagon. Full day in the books. Who’s with me?
Temp has been slowing climbing all night.Its up to 40 here now.D.C.weather forcasters still calling for only fluries out here in Northern Fauquier County.Have a good night all and enjoy the snow down there in Roanoke,Lynchburg,Covington,Clifton Forge,Hot Springs,Monterey,Marion,Wytheville,Radford,Burkes Garden,Tazewell,Grundy,Big Stone Gap,Blacksburg,Pulaski,Mt Rodgers,and the rest of Southwest Va.Have a fun time in the snow tommorrow!
Here’s new GFS snow totals:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfssnowdepth036.gif
Nearly our entire region is 7+.
Sounds good to me, Ryan!
Kevin, I am sad to say that my snow-predicting cat is not yet predicting a snowstorm or even much snow at all. However, we are still quite a few hours from the “beginning” of the storm so I will watch her in the morning.
Even if she misses this one, her record is still far, far better than the NWS.
Jennifer and TinaB and Blossom and maybe a few others (Meg?), great to hear again from you original TWLS group ….. TWLS will always be Teachers Who Love Snow for me. Just don’t post any comments here that begin “Must … have … ” LOL LOL
As you can tell, that continues to be one of my alltime favorite comments on this blog. But it is a definite snow-killer. So I won’t repeat the entire phrase. Good luck, teachers.
I feel fairly confident in going with 6-10″ for most of Southwest VA and 8-14″ for areas around Wytheville.
DougF, great comment. As the owner of a dog that achieved fame in the Washington, DC area back in the late 80s, I get a big kick out of anyone that has an animal/pet who acts differently when a big weather event is about to happen. What does kitty do differently when it is about to snow?
You guys always have to battle that snow/rain line down there….I moved away 14 years ago. Hope you guys get a good one! Enjoy!
My word, the model you (KM) just posted from GFS is radically different than what WDBJ continues to say!! Amazing. I just looked at the TWC Hourly Forecast for Roanoke city, and it endorses the early/mid-afternoon switch from rain/rainy snow showers to all snow. 1PM: 39*, rain. 2PM: 38*, Rain/snow showers. 3PM: 33* (a 5-degree drop in one hour!!), Snow. But I bet the big hourly drop happens an hour or maybe two before that.
What is the latest Euro run saying, KM?
Hello DougG, I read your posts frequently and thanks for your insights.
Your question about my cat is appreciated. Her name is KittyGirl, nickname
is Kitty, just as your guessed, LOL.
KittyGirl is full of energy and will exhibit sudden bursts of running for no reason at all. She might be lying in the driveway and all of a sudden take off like a rocket is behind her. That sort of thing. Accompanying the running are her eyes in “attack mode”, pupils dilated to solid black, ears at full alert, etc. Now it is true cats play like that at times but with her “forecast” she is almost constantly in that mode or she acts like that for no apparent reason. Sometimes she will blast thru the house over the furniture and out the door if it’s open. Funny as can be. Let’s hope she starts acting like that. P.S. The more she does those things the bigger the storm.
My what a busy blog. We wait and see what the weather will bring. Our forecast for Washington Co is for 6-16 inches of heavy wet snow. WSW for us and WSW for east TN. Severe flooding now in east TN and some for our area in VA. Many schools will remain closed tomorrow due to flooding. Our schools have not announced and I am sure they will wait till AM and see what happens tonight. We had 4.4″ of rain and they say we can have 1-2″ more plus snow.
Robin Reed sticking with 1-3.
Welcome Carolyn of Blacksburg, TWLS gang and other lurkers who have surfaced today. And DougF with the snow-predicting cat – I knew I remembered someone who had that kind of cat. Keep us posted.
Dopp Carol – maybe you need to oversee those repairs on the Doppler in the morning to make sure they get done right.
We cannot change the weather but boy, can we talk about it on this blog!
Euro looked pretty similar to NAM, actually, with quick heavy snow swath and cut off to north of I-64. Didn’t have access to snowfall numbers on site I was on.
I took the snowblower out of the shed and put it in the garage tonight. Started with 1 pull. Shortly afterwards projected snowfall totals fell and a loud wailing could be heard a few miles to the West
Never fear Jared, the less snow they predict chances are the more we’ll get. I’m going to be very worried if they up the projected totals on us overnight.
The 1 thing I don’t get about the Channel 7 snow projection is I just saw something Robin Reed posted on Facebook that shows snow beginning in Roanoke at 1:30 p.m. on the RPM. So it snows from 1:30 to 8 p.m. and yet there is only 2 inches? I can believe 1-3 inches if there’s less longevity of snowfall, but not 6 1/2 hours of snowfall.
1-3″ when the WSW is for 4-8″? ABSURD! I keep telling people to have a plan for rush hour tomorrow and they look at me like I’m crazy. Now I know why.
@Gdad. We all remember R. Reed’s famous “just a dusting” post from years ago and even though he has moved on from that I guess the quote still lingers in the back of my mind. I hope he is wrong on the “light side” and we get 4-8 inches.
I’m with the consensus on this one.
6-12″ with locally higher amounts for most of the western half of VA from the US 29 Corridor westward with 4-8″ with locally higher amounts east of 29. Zach still looking pretty for your neck of the woods in Hillsville. Greene Co a good bet for 6-10″
Off to bed…
We have a saying in our home, “R.R. hates snow…” for what it’s worth.
Hi HokieTrax. I will check on KittyGirl again before midnight but if she is predicting snow in the morning it may be mid morning before I can get it posted here, but I will.
I’ve been busy with an elderly sick dog and lots of humane society bus. so hadn’t kept up with the weather predictions. Glad I happened to stop by the library today and grabbed a couple of good reads. Learned from some first graders that to ensure a snow day one should wear pajama’s inside out and flush ice cubes down the loo! Scheduling a long nap for tomorrow afternoon.
Well one thing I have learned in the last few months since my son was born sleep is a good thing so get it when I can. (Aka no more 2 am blog reading unless hes up) I will catch up in the morning and fingers crossed we stay with this 6+ for Roanoke so I can show Colin his first snow. Granted at 4 1/2 months I doubt he will care, but it will make Dad smile. Now my 11 year old is already talking about out 2 hours early tomorrow and no school Friday. Good Night all Kevin get some sleep tomorrow will be busy.
Dave Tolleris will be on WRVA 1140AM in Richmond Thursday AM at 6:35 AM on the Jimmy Barrett Morning Show.
Here’s the link:
http://www.1140wrva.com/main.html
I will have the DT Thursday podcast up in the morning on the QWC home page.
BTW…0Z GFS still says game on! While WDBJ7 says…..snore….snore
I learned years ago that WDBJ is very conservative with snow. You basically can look out the window and count the inches before they go all in on any significant count. This one has thrown me for a loop though because I am shocked that they are going against the NWS winter storm warning. I don’t remember them doing that before. I guess we will see who is wrong on this one.
I’m looking at the 18z gfs and i may be wrong but its looking like the moneta smith mountain lake area is gonna get moderate snow due to it being farther south now. My first ever looking at this so excuse my stupidness. Its at the 30 hour mark
Last call map from DT:
http://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-snc7/740785_471457219568208_651668972_o.jpg
Am I seeing that right, has DT relocated Roanoke to Pulaski County on that map Ben linked? Doesn’t matter for the snow, it’s 9-12 either way.
Excellent point about the lack of matching the number of hours of falling snow with only 2 inches of accumulation, Kevin. Only possible justification (this is a question, NOT a justification) would be that it is mostly melting snow, taking quite a while to start accumulating?? Definitely weird. Robin is only predicting 1-3 inches for most parts of the NRV!! They may end up correct, but you are right …. holes in their approach.
Great comment, Rigel. I hope that your pooch is not close to the end of his/her days. I just went through that …… negative fun, to say the least.
Your eyes aren’t deceiving you! I noticed that he labeled Roanoke too far SW on his last map as well, but as you said, Roanoke is still in 9-12″. That amount would do some damage to trees for sure.
There’s a lot more rain showers tonight that I was expecting. And the temperature has risen into the upper 40s in Roanoke. We’re on the warm sector of the developing storm system now.
Is there much of a chance that Roanoke could see as much as 9″-12″, though? Seems to be much higher estimate than most others at this time. Would love for it to be correct however.
It’s raining again. We got a little over 4 inches for the Monday-Wednesday time period.
Doug, I can’t believe that comment has stayed with you all this time– I’m not about to utter it again, I don’t want to jinx tomorrow’s snowfall.
Moisture appears to be sufficient to support large totals like that, Roa10 … IF more of it falls as snow and less as rain than projected by most guidance. Some of the models tonight are slightly drier but trade that off with being colder.
We’re supposed to be getting the heavy snow tomorrow from the deformation zone associated with the upper level low. We saw that kind of prediction bust big time about two years ago. Most of the snow went to the north, and the DC are got hit pretty hard. I hope it works out for us this time.
Blossom my dear, I just thought it was incredibly cute comment. Also, the way you posted it, I immediately got this visual image of a guy on the edge of death by dehydration crawling into a desert village, desperately needing water, rasping “Must … have …. {No, not water, but} snow!!”
I was living in the area for Robin Reed’s ‘dusting’ in late 1996. That dusting was approx. 27″ where I was and not much less. in Roanoke. I laughed. We got the dusting then he moved to something like 3″ we had more than that he want up to 8″ and so on. I like Robin, and being on the pessimistic side has served him well over the years. When he blows a forecast though, he blows a forecast!!!!!
Jason: We also saw the deformation zone of an upper low nail us pretty decently on Feb. 19.
And all of us think that WDBJ7 is the lowball forecast for snow tomorrow. Well, I just clicked on the NWS-Blacksburg website, and one of the offerings was “Get updates every 3 hours for the following cities …” So I clicked on Roanoke. What a shock. Kevin, if you can spare a minute, do it. Temps of 40* at noon, still 38 at 3:00, only down to 36 by 6 PM, which is when it has the snow starting to accumulate!! Total snowfall: 0.9 inches!!
Mostly-lurker here, but alas, I too am a TWLS (even though my classes do not start until next week, I hope this storm establishes a pattern!). I agree wholeheartedly with Brandon–it is irresponsible for local news to contradict the NWS when a warning is in place. I have talked to people today who either have no idea snow is coming or think it will amount to nothing. So refreshing to see other weather nerds (I use this term self-referentially and with affection) getting excited. Bring it on!
The famous “dusting” I remember Robin Reed talking about was from early-mid December of 1995. I have it recorded in my records in my room, but don’t feel like looking now…lol! That dusting ended up being an intense nighttime storm of 10-inches+ for the valley. I remember even though it wasn’t a historic, crippling snow, that it came down as about as hard as I’ve ever seen it do so. That took us into the historic January 6-8 snow of two feet. I have heard Robin Reed many a times say “a flurry or two” and we get at least 4-inches. Hey guys, don’t get too cocky about this being a big un’ because what if Robin Reed/Brent Watts is correct on this. We all would be served up big, fresh crows from the valley on a silver platter! hahahahaha Let’s hope that doesn’t happen!
True, the Feb 19 storm last year did end up meeting or exceeding expectations. Some over perform and some underperform. We shall see how the storm turns out tomorrow.
It actually was not that bad at the grocery store this evening. Not any more people there than usual really. I think many people will be caught totally off guard if we do get a decent snow.
Blossom, I remember Robin R’s comment so well because I was a very sick man and could not sleep at all. I watched the Weather Ch and noticed the temp dropping and the dew point rising and I thought, “oh wow!” Reed is gonna miss this one. I was up all night and watched the snow begin to fall..and fall and fall. In Roanoke County we got 10 inches I think. But I can’t forget because of all those memory points. He will miss it again, I hope.
Raining heavily at my current location in Bedford.
Driving into town tomorrow afternoon — so glad to be able to use this blog to make adjustments to my schedule. How cool is this? No, seriously…how cold will it be after the storm passes through?
Robin Reed invited me to speak to his meteorology communications class he teaches at Virginia Tech this past fall. Robin is very candid about being very conservative on snowfall forecasts. We also agreed that I am the most conservative locally on severe storm forecasts — I tend to find all the limiting factors in severe storm and tornado risks. Robin’s been here a long time and knows that more snow situations fall short than overshoot forecasts. It is statistically sounder to underplay snow than overplay it. He’s right most of the time, while spectacularly blowing a few.
That said — I think he’s gonna be wrong on this one. I’m opening up the top side of my snow guesses a little — will say 3-7 for Roanoke area and 5-10 for New River Valley. Will leave other areas the same for the moment, but expect some localized 12+ in that I-77 corridor area.
In defense of Robin Reed, he made a point of saying verbally at 11:20 that many of the models are predicting significantly higher snow totals. That the time when the changeover to snow happens and how cold it gets at the surface and allows accumulations to start are two of the big factors.
Being conservative is fine, but when you’re talking about the possibility of 1-2″ per hour falling right around rush hour, I think that deserves a mention.
Blacksburg seems to still be very conservative on totals. Only an 1″ for Roanoke looking at their graph forecasts. They don’t think it’ll switch over until around 6pm for Roanoke. Any reason why since the model consensus has trended colder?
Kevin has no idea… He is a fraud.
Kevin. I don’t think anyone is bashing Reed, I know I’m not. The old-very old-”dusting” story is merely funny to remember and also a walk done memory lane for a few of us.
**down**
http://blueridgeweather.blogspot.com/ Major update on my site!
A brief nowcast. I have an additional 0.15 inches in the gauge since I emptied the 3.75 inches at about 5:15. So total is about 3.9 since Monday morning. And the temp here at 1400+ feet is a balmy 46*.
John, did you just say that Robin Reed is a fraud??
I thought John said I am a fraud. Which I can’t be unless I claim to be something I’m not. Bio above says “weather geek” … not meteorologist or even weather expert. I am very legitimately a “weather geek.”
John: Kevin a fraud? LOL. That’s the dumbest thing I’ve ever read on this blog.
All I know is if there is the moisture to do 1 -2″ per hour snows, we had better hope for snow as high as some creeks and rivers are. Kevin, if by chance this is an all rain event, is there enough rain to cause major flooding in this area??
I must admit that I don’t like it when forecasts by different meteorologists and weather geeks and models are all over the place less than 24 hours before a snowstorm. Hopefully from my point of view there will be some sort of better consensus by early tomorrow morning. I am probably like many folks …. with so many different forecasts, it sometimes makes planning one’s day more troublesome.
Probably not “major” flooding — just pushing some streams that are bankful back over their banks, especially south of Roanoke where it rained more earlier this week and will likely rain a little more tomorrow. There is a flood watch out Roanoke and south.
Brandon, if THAT is what John meant, namely that Kevin is a fraud, I second your opinion, EMPHATICALLY!!! Dumbest comment ever here.
Aside from the 2009-10 winter and those giant wads of moisture flinging themselves into sustained Arctic cold … isn’t it always like this, Doug?
I think he was referring to Robin Reed and he is definitely no fraud. He has many many years of meteorological expertise and sure, he misses here and there on snowfall amounts or storms, what meteorologist doesn’t? They aren’t God and I’m sure what they do takes a lot of flack and criticism when people don’t get what they want, esp. snow. I for one am guilty for blaming the messenger when all doesn’t go my way, but we must stop and look at the hard work that goes into these forecasts, esp. with all the models they must contend with now! Sure… Robin, WSET, Jeff Haniewich, NWS, Accuweather,Dave Tolleris and all have busted before..it’s part of the nature of the forecast…but that certainly doesn’t make any of them a fraud.
Historically, I think some of our most dramatic weather occurs when fronts ‘stall’ over us… This seems to happen unexpectedly. What cause a front to stall in a location, and is there any way that happens in this storm? I am trying to learn and not sensationalize.
As a 12 year resident of Bburg, I’m used to getting my hopes for snow dashed. But, based on the discussion here and the models presented, I don’t understand where the local forecasters are coming up with these lowball numbers. I think this one is gonna sneak in the back door and put the smack down on all but the select few following this awesome blog.
shutting down for the night but not QWC. Back in the morning. Stickin to my guns and then some. Just placed my predictions on Blog Page.
One more comment before I go to sleep, which is where I hope you will be heading soon, KM. Yeah, we often have some discrepancies among various sources, but this one is REALLY all over the place. Don’t you agree?
I don’t think Robin Reed is a fraud either. He’s always been very professional and gentlemanly with me and my family.
John, your lack of respect is astounding whether it be directed at Kevin or Robin!
Robin Reed is a gentlemen and a class act all around, just knowing what he does and has done for the community outside of his work. Everybody makes mistakes, casting stones at people on a weather blog is asbsurd.
Neither Robin nor Kevin are frauds. This is an inexact science with a multitude of variables. Unfortunately, the forecasts are really educated guesses. However, they are better than they used to be and will continue to increase in accuracy. Yeah, I grumble about snow busts, but I certainly don’t get malicious about it all. As for Robin’s dustings on steroids forecasts, they are a source of merriment for me. I still respect him most of our area meteorologists. I feel that the area is fortunate to have him.
And please let it be know I am not the same ‘John’ who made the earlier disparing remarks about RR
Night all. Be safe tomorrow!!!
Yes, it’s time to close down shop tonight. I’ll start fresh in the morning — probably put a brief update on here first, until I have time to prepare a larger new update. Good night.
Robin Reed is awesome. Kevin is awesome. SNOW is awesome. All of you except John are awesome.
And with that, I’m going home and going to bed. Be safe tomorrow.
Good night Kevin. I didn’t mention you in my earlier comment about Robin Reed and others because I honestly didn’t think he was talking about you and you are the most accurate out there, hence, why I’m glued to the site in the winter time. Meteorology is a lot of fun and I learn more about it’s unpredictable personality on a daily basis. I guess if you think about it….if it did EXACTLY what was said every forecast, the blog wouldn’t be near as much fun would it? The fickleness of the models can be frustrating though I must admit. Good night and God bless all!
robin reed is irresponsible. many saying that snow could be really bad but robin is more trying to make himself look good instead of trying to warn viewers when the roads could be dangerous. his bad forecast dec 09 is proof. that he would admit a bias when it comes to snow amounts is bad. robin reed does little. hes not experienced. tv weather people just go by what the nws says they dont forecast on their own. when they do forecast on their own they just make themselves look bad. robin needs to retire.
I’m going out on a limb, here. Too many variables. 70 degrees just days ago, as of 4AM, storm going to the south, I predict a big nothing, we’ll see.
Art: You got sawed right off that same limb last February I remember, predicting the same “big nothing” when it was in the 60s less than 15 hours before it started snowing 5-9 inches.
Storm isn’t going south it’s exactly where it’s supposed to be right now, snowing in Mississippi exactly as forecast. Whether that translates to snow here later, we’ll see.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=fcx&product=FTM
42.8* and light rain. DC, you’ll probably see something first, then here at my house. Holler up and I’ll do the same when and if it changes over.
clown map.
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=FCX
Doppler Carol – would you mind to run over and kick the radar? In all seriousness, this is ridiculous, and is driving me crazy. I have no idea where/if it is raining/snowing. Hope it gets up soon.
I’m having some technical difficulties getting a new post up this morning. Hope to have this up by 7.
Blacksburg Mike: Radar / Future Cast is working on this page. Takes surrounding radars and uses their info for regional/national map. It’s snowing in Mississippi. That’s our upper low.
Robin Reed is a fraud? Simply because he is going against the models and consensus forecast? Is there anyone out there who has not seen a forecast not pan out? Like schools closed due to a forecast and we not even get flurries. Hats off to Robin Reed for having the insight and intelligence to do his job and the kahunas to at times go against the grain. If all you want to hear is what you want to hear, make your own forecast and don’t clog my favorite blog with such nonsense.
Capn Quags, I don’t think your website is working. Speaking of, I do appreciate others opinions, so thanks to you and Zach and Kevin and all the others that take the time to run a website or blog.
School administrators have my sympathy this morning. I can only imagine how difficult a decision they have. I am waking up to 47 and rain, but the forecast calls for anywhere from 2-12 inches of snow, and somehow you have to make a decision for what to do with school. The only thing you can be sure of is no matter what the decision is, it will be highly criticized. I am glad I am not the one that has to make that call.
Personally, I also hope Robin is wrong. I didn’t post what he said to bring abuse down on him; I was merely providing a piece of information.
Trevar, several other radars cover our area nicely. Charleston Wv., Charolette Nc. are a couple.
Leo Hirsbrunner of WDBJ7 just used eye drops. WDBJ7 blinked …. substantially. We now have some sort of consensus. Yay. ROA, LYNCHB, northern Franklin County, points generally east and NE of Roanoke: 3-5 inches. Blacksburg, Floyd, and SW through Wytheville and further SW: 4-8 inches. Martinsville: 3-6 inches.
I just got out of bed at 6:31, and already Leo has emphasized that once the rain changes to snow, it will start to pile up quickly, so traffic will become very hazardous quickly. That part reminds me of the afternoon of Dec. 18th, 2009.
New post is up. Doug, I actually mention the December 2009 situation in there.
Some of you need to sit back and take a chill pill for a little bit! I’m not sure what all of this bashing of Robin Reed from wdbj7 is for! Just because he isn’t anticipating higher accumulations that you think or you want to hear! If he nails the forcast..then he proves almost everybody on this blog wrong! And let’s be honest! Most of these systems especially this year have underperformed, with the exception of this last big rain maker! So if RR is wrong, then rejoice in the awesome snow! And stop the criticizing! If RR is right, then some of you need to apologize for the harsh remarks! Its weather! As agrivating as it can be, its simply weather, and this blog especially goes on the facts and throws out the possibilities!! Id rather hear the lower end and be surprised, than higher end and be mad! Just my 2 pennies!
Just wanted to comment on Robin Reed and put my two cents worth in. First of all, Robin Reed is a class act. Sure he’s missed a few forecasts but when you’ve been doing them for 30+ years your going to get a few wrong. And think about how many other meteorologists have come and gone on the other stations in our area over that time (and some NOT so class acts). Yet Robin Reed remains steady with his calm demeanor.
Now, let’s get on with the snow! LOL.
Robin and I will probably have a good chuckle later about how he took over my blog for a while.
Doug G So far my cat has not shown any strange or “crazy” behavior but last night around midnight when she played she did go hide in two places she hasn’t been in a long time. This morning she is normal, so at this point she has really not predicted any wintry weather in my opinion. This event apparently is giving her as much trouble as it is the forecasters!
Tyler of the 2:41 comment. You are entitled to your opinion. But you are forgetting that WDBJ7 and Robin Reed were probably the most accurate source around for the January 26, 2011 tiny snowstorm. Actual snow total for ROA? 0.2 inches.
Most of the folks on this blog who predicted and also most of the models were saying at least 3 inches for Roanoke, with many predictions quite a bit higher. At least one commenter chastened WDBJ7 for a lowball forecast because the NWS came out with that strange Winter Storm Warning the day before. I suggest that you and the John of the 12:10 comment have a nice get-together today. At a nunnery.
Bashing RR? He is the best you guys have down there. I visit a couple of times a year. The other guys are cartoons. (Not the guy that runs this blog). If everyone had Robin’s sense, then the schools wouldn’t have to close for 5 inches of wet, 31 degree snow before it happens! Insanity! Reed is terrific.
I couldn’t call anyone a fraud over a blown forecast here or there, even if it is one that lives in infamy (before my time here though). Even the mets in the Hampton Roads area that I grew up in had some horrible busted forecasts. Once, the forecast was for flurries only, maybe a slightly measurable dusting of snow. After 10″, we got the flurries. I didn’t think any less of them for it, there was a totally unexpected atmospheric quirk that developed…one that I’ve only found happening 2-3 times down there in recent history…and only that one time to that degree.
The folks with the meteorology degrees and additional certifications have forgotten more about the practice of forecasting and the dynamics of weather systems than I’ll ever hope to know…and I’d venture to say that Kevin probably knows more about the weather than most of us. I’m a weather geek myself and had really hoped to become a meteorologist, before picking engineering since VT didn’t yet have a meteorology program. In some ways, I’m kind of glad I did that, because I can be a fan of the weather and not get overly analytical about it…and sit back and enjoy the curveballs and changeups that nature inevitably throws at us from time to time to keep us honest.
I remember hearing Robin Reed talk when I was in the 5th grade at Roanoke Catholic, he was a very cool guy to say the least. Sat on the floor and was super nice and down to earth not to mention knowledgeable. Always had a big fascination with weather from when I was a little kid and Robin definantly helped pique my curiosity in science and weather. Kudos to you, Robin.
I don’t think anyone here truly believes Robin Reed and the WDBJ7 Weather Crew are a bunch of horned devils giving us the wrong forecast intentionally for one reason or another.
However, It does seem kind of irresponsible for a “rush-hour” impacting weather event to be conservatively forecast. My mom lives in the area and when I called her last night she was under the impression that it’s barely going to snow, because she saw the 5pm weather forecast that Brent Watts did on 7.
It is my opinion that with such a wide variety of possibilities in these kinds of events, that it would be more responsible to paint the entire picture for the public such as done here. There’s probabilities of certain amounts of snowfall on the low end, probabilities of snowfall on the high end, sort of similar to what HPC does with their 4+, 8+ and 12+ probability maps. There’s just something completely wrong when a lot of the models and maps were saying a foot and WDBJ was saying 1-3″, with nary a mention of the possibility of those numbers going up (which WDBJ finally did do. I saw a map at 5am this morning that was 3-6″.)
I know that’s a lot to ask for in a minor segment on a news program, but you know… they could at least pre-empt Andy Griffith in favor of coverage.
Back on subject. It’t still raining here but the temperature at my house is between 32 an 33 degrees. I think it might start earlier than predictions based on the temperature.