Turning from floods to multiple chances of light snow
Latest updates from The Roanoke Times on Roanoke/New River flooding
Latest National Weather Service advisories and warnings
SW Virginia river stages and forecasts
A few quick notes on the flooding/wind weather event just passed before we move to what’s next.
* The New River’s 21.13-foot crest at Radford is the fifth highest on record and the highest since a 24.04-foot crest on Jan. 15, 1995. The Roanoke River’s peak crest of 12.44 feet on Thursday was the 23rd highest on record, and the highest since a 12.8-foot crest on June 27, 2006.
* The threat of failures at two New River dams led to the issuance of a flash flood watch for portions of Wythe, Pulaski and Carroll counties. The dam failure threat is now considered much less than before due to some intervention by American Electric Power, but the flash flood watch has remained in place.
Many of you saw snowflakes at times today, even into the Roanoke Valley. Some of you west of Roanoke even got a little white. This pretty much sums up what the weather is going to be like, off and on, for much of the next 4-7 days.
Alberta clippers — fast moving disturbances diving southeastward from Canada — and prolonged upslope snow events — when northwest winds squeeze out moisture crossing the Appalachians for days — have been largely non-existent this season. It appears we’re going to make up for this over the next several days. At least 3 Alberta clipper systems look to aim for the central/southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic, the first arriving overnight and early Friday, the second late Saturday, and the third about Tuesday … and there maybe another after that. In each case, the clippers will scatter snow showers southeastward out of the Ohio Valley. How much of that crosses over the Appalachians is always questionable, as the downslope flow on the east side of the Appalachian crest often dries out the moisture. But if there is enough lift, a clipper system can carry snow far east of the mountains, all the way to the coast in some cases, where clippers frequently trigger large low-pressure systems that move offshore. Snow amounts are likely to be light overnight and early Friday, an inch or less in most of the New River and Roanoke valleys, but more (2-3 inches) toward the West Virginia line and west of Interstate 77 (scroll down on this page for the weather service’s best guess at accumulations). Clipper systems sometimes surprise us with narrow paths of heavier snow, so it’s always something to keep an eye on, though the speed of the system will likely preclude any truly heavy amounts in our area. The systems Saturday night and Tuesday may be a bit stronger than this one, but the tracks they take remains uncertain. In between the clippers, northwesterly wind flow will keep the upslope snow machine going. That means that some of the West Virginia mountains are going to get several inches of snow from frequent snow squalls over the next few days, and that snow showers and flurries will be possible just about any time crossing into Virginia as well.
It is possible toward the mid to latter part of next week that a wetter system could develop in the central U.S., bringing some Gulf moisture back into play as it advances eastward. How much that interacts with cold air remains to be seen.
January 31, 2013 - 7:36 PM
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Kevin, does the clipper system on the radar look like what you expected or a bit more ro(bust)? It looks better than what I was anticipating but I’ve seen the mountains suck the life out of many clippers – hope to eek out a nice thin little white blanket before sunrise tomorrow.
Honestly, I haven’t had much time today to focus on the clipper … and also the national radar has been on the blink some at times. As of now it looks pretty healthy.
I’ve seen 3-inch forecasts turn to nothing and nothing turn to 3 inches with clippers. Pesky little creatures they are.
Greetings from sunny Florida once again. Sunny, COOLER Florida. The front came through my motel property right at midnight, and just like many t-storms that look very promising coming through the western half of the NRV and then get the stuffing knocked out of them by the time they reach the Roanoke valley, there was a brief severe t-storm watch or warning for the Lake City area about 100 miles west of Jville. But by the time it reached the northern outskirts of Saint Augustine where I am staying, it was just raindrops. The amount that fell must have been tiny, because there were abso zippo puddles in the parking lot this morning.
I’m kind of liking the track on this clipper. Carroll might get a little more than forecast out of it. But as Kevin said you never know with a clipper.
Yesterday was an historic day for Jacksonville. The high temp was 85*. That established a new daily record for JAN 30th. J-ville has 150 years of records. But the historic part is the following: it was the warmest January temperature EVER in Jacksonville!! I think the high was 84 in Saint Aug. Don’t know if that was a record, but it probably was.
And I agree with Kevin. Reading all the entries on the previous thread was this blog at its best. And Nickster, wd and possibly joe as well as our Weather Wizard Blogmeister (and others?) are the people to ask about river levels.
I hope that most of you got through this drenching rainstorm OK. Sounds like a few folks got flooded basements, wind damage, etc. Sorry for you unlucky ones. But I am ecstatic. These past 18 days have changed the drought outlook like I never dreamed possible.
I played golf today about 85 miles south of Saint Aug in the former winter home town of my parents, Deland. It was warmer and a bit less windy there than St. Aug was forecasted to be. My mom died in Deland 28 years ago. {No condolences, please. It was a looooooong time ago, and she was almost 80 years old}
The drought monitor is still showing counties to the north of Roanoke in drought as of Tuesday the 29th. There is a core of 7 counties (I am including all of Bath and Highland Counties, even though the extreme western edges are in the D-zero level) that are D-1, Moderate Drought. The two mentioned above, plus Augusta, Botetourt, Amherst, Nelson, and Rockbridge. And a ring of D-zero spots, including most of Roanoke valley and Bedford, Albemarle, Rockingham, and Campbell. Also most of Alleghany and Craig. I bet most of those disappear by next week’s map. Certainly Roanoke valley.
For those interested in SML lake level..
The inflow/ lake rise rate is .01 feet per hour..
In other words even if they shut off the outflow gates completely
at the dam it would take 100 hours to rise a foot..
something thats not likely as the inflow rate will continue to drop off.
Doug, enjoy St Augustine! It’s one of our favorite places to go in Florida. Ripley’s is fun, but I love the Alligator Farm!
. . . wonder what happened to Quags??
Just my opinion…
But I think the next couple of quick shots
will be more on the side of flurries getting
wrung out over the mountains.
Look to 8/9 Feb to get more abundant moisture
out of the Miss/Tenn Valley..
That one has my interest for the Mid Atlantic.
I’m hoping to squeeze out a good 3 inches from that clipper tonight LOL. A 5 day work week is unheard of so far this year!
Snow:liquid ratios will be high, on the order of 15:1 or even 20:1. So if enough moisture and lift can make it over the mountains, you could get 1.5 to 2 inches out of only a tenth of an inch of liquid.
Joe – I don’t think that you are completely accurate in your SML theory. According to this website -http://www.aep.com/environment/conservation/hydro/ – “AS OF 10:00 THIS MORNING THURSDAY JANUARY 31, 2013, INFLOW TO THE SMITH MOUNTAIN PROJECT WAS 28,000 AND THE DISCHARGE FROM LEESVILLE 11,000. THE ADJUSTED RESERVOIR ELEVATION WAS 795.8′.” The .01 rise rate per hour that you referenced is NET of the 11,000 CFS outflow. If they shut off the outflow gates from the lake completely, with a 28,000 CFS inflow I am quite sure that the lake would rise much more than 12 inches in 100 hours.
One more bit of info regarding SML from last week’s Roanoke Times: “Todd Burns, a spokesman for Appalachian Power Co., which operates the hydro-electric project that includes Smith Mountain Lake, said the lake is now slightly above full pond.
“Throughout the fall we had been hoping for rain to fix the low water conditions. It turns it was rain followed by snow that actually did it,” Burns said.
He explained prior to last week’s weather, inflows to the lake were 200 to 400 cubic feet per second, but during the early part of last week flows were 17,000 cubic feet per second.
“It shot the lake levels up,” he said, adding that the water rose by feet in just hours.”
Wow that’s pretty interesting Doug Griggs! I was born down in Jacksonville and am an avid Jaguars fan. I’ve got some relatives down there, I should ask them about the warmth down there haha!
Winds now at 10000ft are 60 kts or better.
At 18000ft they are over 100 kts..
This smallish batch will skip past the area
in quick fashion I believe.
Surface winds in the morning will be howling out of
the west then NW gusting to near 40 knots
around daylight. Cold Yes…windchill? Definately.
Thats not a theory…its taken from the SML site.
The inflow rate is there..and you can see from the graph its
beginning to fall.
It’s been snowing since we arrived at Snowshoe 4 hours ago…about 6 inches counting what fell before we got here
Joe, your theory was: “In other words even if they shut off the outflow gates completely at the dam it would take 100 hours to rise a foot.” That is not true. With the gates OPEN, as they currently are, then it would take 100 hours to rise 1 foot at a rising level of .01 feet/hour. If the gates were completely shut off, as you theorize, then the lake would rise at a much faster pace.
Brian: It will be snowing at Snowshoe most of the time between now and Sunday, at least.
Here is a cool graph…Take a look if you like..
week /month/year…spike is obvious with last system.
Lake level is falling now at a rate of .06 feet per hour..
6/100 of a foot…very hard to measure with a stick in the lake…
especially with the wind blowing..
But you get the idea.
http://www.smithmountainlakelevel.com/Scripts/SMLLevelWeb.exe/period
Temp in Blacksburg has risen 4 degrees in last 90 minutes. Here we go again with the completely unforecasted overnight temp rises.
the inflow presently into the lake is .01 feet per hour.
There is no higher amount of runoff than that expected..
Unless im missing something.
Won’t go far, B’burg Mike. Snow showers and wind shift behind next front with clipper will take care of it. Might drift upward just a bit with very weak “warm” air advection ahead of clipper. It is a low that weakly rotates counterclockwise.
Winds have shifted from the SW out ahead of the clipper. Haven’t looked myself but would bet anything this was seen in all hourly forecasts. Will drop again once winds shift in a few hours.
Downtown Roanoke- woke up at 3:20 and could see moon and stars. It’s now 4am and snowing like crazy! I love this crazy weather!
Getting a quick punch of snow here.
Just woke up to see about 1/4 to 1/2 inch of snow coating the ground where I live in southern Roanoke County.
Well the track was good it just moved to fast. I might have a ½” and its 19º.
1/4 to 1/2 inch here as well this morning.
16 degrees and perhaps 3/4″ of snow here in Hokieburg desperately trying to stay on the ground in a fierce wind. Today is howling WINTER in all caps!
1/4 to 1/2 inch of snow in blacksburg this morning. Hard to tell, very wind blown.
it was definitely a surpris
Crazy warm air advection (new phrase of the winter this year) …was 28* when I went to bed at 10pm, up to 34* at midnight, now 17* with a light dusting of snow!! Now this feels like winter…
With the wind howling like it has all night, I was surprised that snow was even able to land on the ground. Light dusting here and the winds are ferocious. Anyone know where the switch is to turn the wind off?
Joe, I will keep my eye on Feb. 8/9.
Half an inch of snow on the ground and it was 12 degrees when I woke up. There was a little warm up, from 23 to 29, just before I went to bed. Got back last night to find the road in pretty decent shape considering the beating it took while I was gone. The creek at the front of the property didn’t wash out the road with the new, much larger culverts holding up. Trees went down on the road but my wonderful neighbor, who was feeding the dogs, cleared them out before I got home.
Woke up at 2:30 with the wife waking me due to the winds. It scared the poop out of her, and I had to scramble to get the loose items into the outside building to keep it secured. It was freezing cold. I kept thinking to myself that the angry mule was back. So, it was a straight line wind that woke up a lot of folks last night?
1 inch+ in Pembroke. 15 degrees.
Woke up around maybe 4 or 430 to see 0.7″ of snow coating everything. It’s 19 and windy now, was 64 and windy 2 days ago.
What a wacky week of wild weather.
Well, I learned a new weather terminology “gustnado.” I have to start coming here more often!
Left the house in Christiansburg at 7 am, and the town road was covered in dusting which froze, making the road a bit slick. However, by the time I got on the 460 bypass, the highway was clear as can be, so I suspect plowers made the highway a higher priority to keep traffic moving.
To be honest, all this winter storms have made me weary of the cold, and looking forward to spring!
Close to an inch of snow at the Chapel. Winter winds howling and a temp of 14. Wind Chills brutal. I see where Wise has dropped to 9. Work was 2 hrs late and I think I may just stay home today and stoke the fires.
Doors were frozen shut on my kidmobile this morning. Interesting trying to open them up and stay vertical at the same time LOL. Time to bring on the next round of snow!
One other comment not re cold. I cannot remember when the spring fed creek beside the house has ever run so full. It has been years and this is a good thing.
pistol pete, I just saw your report Pembroke. I live in the ‘broke too and looked like between 1 and 2 in when I was brushing off the car. Anybody have an idea when that heavier shower came through? Just wondered.
Had a heavy snow shower come through my location in downtown Roanoke about 4 AM. I took a quick video of it.
http://t.co/IoC6DFRr
It was 39 degrees when the snow started falling. Temperatures plummeted into the low 30s shortly thereafter. The wind was howling. Kind of cool to see.
Just noted this on Twitter: January was Blacksburg’s wettest on record since 1952, and Roanoke’s fifth wettest since 1912.
Blacksburg:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/rnk/climate/top10s/RNK/maxPcpn01.txt
Roanoke:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/rnk/climate/top10s/ROA/maxPcpn01.txt
Trav, I’m out in Narrows. The wind woke me up at 4am. When I looked out the window, all was white. So, it happened sometime between midnight and 4am. We’ve got about 1″ too. Side roads are still covered here and 100 is just starting to melt.
I’m sure it’s a very good video. Now, how about posting a set of instructions on how to see it for this ole dumb pute operater.
Raleigh meteorologist Allen Huffman summarizes the vastly split guidance on the long-range outlook (scroll down to “National Extended Forecast Discussion”)
http://www.examiner.com/article/cold-weekend-ahead-but-then-milder-weather-returns
I noticed that brief midnight warmup, as well. What does that make, something like four out of the last seven days that temps actually rose (even for a short while) overnight? It was 31 degrees at about 10 PM at my house (SW Roanoke City, Windsor Hills district, 1066 feet elevation). When the winds woke me up around 2 AM, it was 37*! As Kevin noted, that didn’t last long, since it was down to 24* when I left for work at 7:30. The roller coaster ride continues . . .
10 inches at Snowshoe as of 8am…currently snow showers then sun..snow showers then sun
We had almost an inch of snow in Wytheville today…..woopty do.
Ooo- wind advisory only goes till NOW! I thought it was till 4 pm. I am sure it will stop sometime soon.
It was 14 here this morning with the wind blowing.
I’d have to guess the temp rises overnight are partly due to storms approaching from the west, swinging the leading winds more southerly until the strong NW flow kicks in as they pass.
Sunny and windy here on the Florida Keys and a warm 74 degrees.
It is currently 28 sunny degrees here in Rocky Mount. We received a nice dusting over night and it was enough to close schools for the day. I guess what fell really stuck to the roads. Bring on more snow please!
It was that warm in Roanoke just 72 hours ago, Paul.
Chris Obrion has a interesting weather-related cartoon to describe our recent weather extremes:
http://blogs.roanoke.com/roundtable/files/2013/02/02_01_2013_weather_750.jpg
I got to play golf one more time this afternoon, in Kingsland, GA. Just north of the FLA border. Tonight I will be staying in Hardeeville, SC.
I got one of my wishes fulfilled today. This morning I was still in SAint Augustine while it was snowing (OK, it was tiny) in ROA and throughout most of SW Virginia. And brutally cold up there, too. Just about everybody who posted this morning had a temp below 20*. YAY!!
(-: ˙ʎlǝʇɐl uǝǝq sʇı ʎɐʍ ǝɥʇ ʎluıɐʇɹǝɔ puɐ uooʇɹɐɔ looɔ
Johnny-KHLX: I have NO IDEA why your comment was flipped like that. NO IDEA. For those who don’t read reverse type, it says: “cool cartoon and certainly the way its been lately
”
I was being a you know what.
http://www.typeupsidedown.com/
I don’t know about the rest of yall, but to me this has been about as miserable a day as we’ve had. Got up to 25 here this evening and now 21*. The wind ain’t let up[teens and mid thirtys all day]. The snow was mostly a non-event with the exception of some slick spots. Probably not a half inch here. They stocked some streams Wednesday and then the flood came and it was too cold to fish today, even if the rivers were ok. Spring needs to spring now far as I’m concerned.
Kevin,
70% chance of snow on saturday night according to the noaa. What kind of accumulations are possible in the next 48 hours? And is the moisture associated with a clipper?
Thanks
That explains it, Johnny. Though it looks more backwards than upside down.
Austin: Clipper No. 2 arrives Saturday PM. Amounts will be light, similar to maybe a little more than what we saw this morning. Precipitation probabilities are for seeing .01 liquid in a given time frame, so it doesn’t take much to verify those. Will discuss this more in a blog entry later tonight.
I will discuss this in the next blog post as well … but tonight has a shot to be the coldest night of the winter so far with winds expected to calm after midnight. X factor is how much cloudiness arrives ahead of next clipper in the early morning. If clouds do start moving in, we may get yet another situation with temperatures creeping upward a bit after falling for hours. If the clouds hold off, single-digits lows will be widespread New River Valley and west, and even Roanoke could get close to 10.
anybody heard from quags?
I’m so jealous if my parents in Giles! They got 2 inches last night and an advisory is up for 2-4 inches through the weekend. Arghhh sucks to live east of the Blue Ridge! No snow during winter and the summers are hot as Hades!
I sent Quags a DM on twitter but got no response. I’m wondering what happened too.
Taking students to the Home Place Saturday….should I be worried with the snow? We are going early, like 5 PM-ish.
Nice to know people worry if the blogulars don’t show up. Quags…you are missed!
Yes, there could be some snow about that time on that route, HokieTrax. Pay attention to radar on Saturday. Amounts will be light, but of course those are curvy roads (I drove from Catawba to Blacksburg myself this past Monday).
Just posted new blog entry on lots of things, including the next clipper.
I was definitely surprised of the dusting of snow we got this morning wasn’t looking for I hope we can get more from these other Clippers that come through but I know my location it’s very very very Low percentage