Warm days, not much rain through weekend; changes next week
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration confirmed Tuesday that 2012 was the warmest year on record for the contiguous 48 states of the United States, dating to 1895, beating out the previous warmest year, 1998, but an entire degree. Locally, it was Roanoke’s warmest as well, dating to 1912 — 59.5 degrees, edging out 59.4 in 2007 — and was tied for fifth warmest, dating to 1953, at Blacksburg, at 54 degrees. Linked here is some further reporting by Seth Borenstein of the Associated Press (Roanoke/Blacksburg data inserted by me) and also by the Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang.
The next few days will fit the warm theme set by the previous year, with above-normal highs in the 50s and low 60s Wednesday on a dry day, backing off a few degrees Thursday and Friday with some showers, before soaring to near-record levels in the 60s to low 70s over the weekend.
Southwest Virginia’s lack of fortune with needed rainfall may well continue with the storm system over the next 3 days. While parts of the Mississippi River valley may get deluged — good for the historically low river and its barge traffic — but you can see the lightening green colors headed eastward toward us. Dry air being pumped in by a high to the north will cut into the moisture flow, and the storm center tracking far to our west won’t provide enough of a firehose from the Gulf to overcome the drier air with a lot of deep moisture. A side effect of this lack of deep moisture may be that we don’t as much of the “in-situ” wedge effect with rain-cooled air being trapped against the mountains, so highs on Thursday and Friday may not back off as much as once thought. Locations from Roanoke south and east probably see highs in the 50s both of those days.
The weekend still looks unseasonably to near-record warm, with 70s a good chance from Roanoke southward and eastward, and 60s elsewhere in Southwest Virginia. A second storm system following a similar, but likely more eastward, track early next week has a better chance of providing some decent rains to our region (and more heavy rain to some of the same locations that will get it with the first storm). The HPC’s new 7-day rain map shows about 1 inch total through next Tuesday evening. This is the low that will drag through a cold front that will be the leading edge of some colder weather … but as I’ve said a few different times in comments, don’t expect a “flash freeze,” at least at first, but rather the beginning of stepping down toward a colder period about a week from now
The period beyond a week from now still holds the strong, but not certain, potential for a large, deep Arctic air mass to move southward in part or all of the U.S., and there may be another storm system on a southern track about Jan. 20, give or take a couple of days, to monitor, with more widespread cold air in place.
January 8, 2013 - 10:26 PM
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37 this morning and lots of fog laying in the valleys as the sun comes up over the ridge. A really pretty scene but we are under a “patchy freezing fog alert” for Floyd and Montgomery counties.
It’s still looking like I’m making a mid-winter golf excursion for the weekend…I’m not letting the warm weather go to waste…and I’ve got 2 new (to me) clubs I want to test out. But, that comes after I finish brush cutting and hauling. I got 6 loads hauled away last weekend and a 7th loaded onto the trailer, but not removed since the drop site closed by then…but there’s still another 3 or so I need to take care of. Once that’s done, I’m hitting the links Saturday…or perhaps I’ll play in the morning then work in the afternoon…but then Sunday we get to start trenching to lay an in-ground electric dog fence…hopefully getting that part completed before the cold weather moves back in. At least with some rain in December, the ground isn’t powder-dry any more, which might make the work a little easier.
Oh, and we were 28 degrees with a light frost this AM. I’ve noticed that even though we’re not in a really noticeable valley, the fact that we’re pretty close to the New River in a lower elevation than much of the NRV (a tick above 1900′) seems to help pool the cooler air where we’re at. It also helps with a lot more foggy mornings there than in higher elevations of the NRV.
Come down off Da Knob and was 49*. In less than 1,000′ drop in elevation, if was down to 38*.
I noticed my thermometer easing upward through the evening after dropping to 33.
Flying to Austin today where it is pouring rain but good weather next two days. Our temps will rival theirs this weekend.
Warmest spot in the area is Slings Gap on Bent Mt. @52.7* out of 36 PWS’s.
NWS-Blacksburg radar down again.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=fcx&product=FTM
Carol, what are doing to it?
HokieTrax: There’s a bunch of Virginia Tech meteorology students in Austin now at the American Meteorological Society conference. Maybe some Hokies will cross Trax.
Meteorologist Allan Huffman from Raleigh, on his blog, talks about the near-record warmth on the way, the upcoming cold pattern and some potential for a winter storm around 1/20 as we’ve talked about. But he expects the negative-PNA (low pressure near West Coast) redeveloping around 1/24 to not allow the cold pattern to be extremely long term.
http://www.examiner.com/article/record-warmth-ahead-colder-pattern-after-that
Hey Kevin and others, I was wondering if you knew what was causing the majority of the storm tracks to go up through the Ohio River Valleys as opposed to through the SE United States? And how do the Plains generally get moisture? Does it come up directly from the Gulf, or from clipper systems? I was looking at the drought monitor and the HPC QPF forecast, and it seems like many of the same areas that have been receiving enough rain are the ones getting it again this time (although shifted slightly to the west this time around). Take a look:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
Thanks for the thoughts/explanations.
It is a coincidence that Allen and you mention the PNA again, because I almost commented last night that even though the models have some uncertainty with the exact movement of the AO and NAO more than 6 days ahead, the models were pretty much in agreement that the PNA would be hovering around the neutral/zero line for the next two weeks (and therefore not going very negative to foul up what the Stratospheric thing and AO and NAO would be doing).
WEATHER TRIVIA: It is the beginning of the month again, and therefore the much warmer than normal trend for early month that has been established over the past 12 months continues. This is all coincidence, but it makes for an interesting “phenomenon.” If you are interested in this sort of thing, read on. I find it fascinating, but then again, I am a COLC.
JAN 2012, one year ago: First 12 days, +5.3, entire month was +4.8.
FEB 2012: First 7 days, +9.0. Month was +4.7.
MAR 2012: Exception. First 10 days, +3.6, but month was an April-like +10.1.
APRIL 2012: First 10 days, +6.0. Month was +1.4.
MAY 2012: First 8 days, +9.5. Month was +4.3.
JUNE 2012: Exception. First 9 days, -3.2. Month was -0.2. June would have been a degree cooler, but the 29th and 30th were the derecho days.
JULY 2012: First 9 days were that incredible heat wave, +9.1. Month? +4.1.
AUGUST 2012: First 10 days were +2.4. Month was -0.2. Meteorological summer was an engine and caboose for cool, and the middle of the train was very hot.
SEPT 2012: First 8 days were +4.9, month was +0.2.
OCT 2012; First 6 days were +5.3 (but first 10 days were normal). Month: -0.6
NOV 2012: Exception. First 9 days were -7.3. Month was -3.2.
DEC 2012: First 10 days were +10.7. Month: +5.6.
So far this month through the 8th, +3.8. But that number will almost certainly be MUCH higher by next Monday or Tuesday.
If someone were to go back and calculate what Roanoke’s actual daily means were for the first 10 days of every month in 2012 (no, I am not going to do that), and compare them to the normals for a city much to our south, like Charlotte, I bet they would be very close overall. The cold starts here in June and November would foul things up a bit.
In my personal opinion, haven’t heard anyone say this, I think this much talked about meg cold front is going to highly modify before we get it and we will simply be seasonable to maybe slightly below normal for a few days and then above normal temps again. The way everything has set up since late November, I just don’t see it in the cards for us to have bitter cold or much if any snow this season. I hope and pray I’m wrong though, but my hopes were crushed all of December with the PATTERN CHANGE to a bit more rain and normal temps. I think this is going to basically repeat December’s highly anticipated BUST for cold/snow! I will eat a big ol’ crow if I’m wrong.
Scott: There was no bust in December. Pattern shifted as expected. We had 2 weeks of seasonably cold temperatures after warm start to December. This time around, the expectation is that extreme cold will go SOMEWHERE away from the pole,likely into at least part of US, not necessarily here. And as has been noted many times, if you want snow here, you’re usually better off in slightly below normal cold rather than extreme cold. Clear skies and single digit temps won’t be fun for snow lovers in SW Virginia when Georgia is getting buried by a suppressed, overrunning storm.
Technically maybe not a bust, but a bust in my eyes, because not one single snow panned out for us or left us rainy. Not one day below 40 as a high. Still no highs in the 30′s yet this season. Not one night time low in the teens yet. My snowfall prediction would have said early on…in November when it was good and chilly and all winter predictions for cold and snowy, I would have said….Roanoke…about 28-32″, Blacksburg…32-36″. Now…Roanoke…5″ or less and Blacksburg…6-10″ I hope and pray I’m wrong! Yes, the pattern gave us many 42-50 degree days and at least gave us some drought quenching rain, but for a true snow lover like myself, thought it was a bust, compared to what I was anticipating!
Travis…
Locate the jet stream…
this time of year its fairly easy to find..
airplanes fight it valiantly..(or fly under it)
or lose time trying!
Heres a nice graphic for one stop look at upper wind
patterns (observed and forecast)
Just found this..pretty nice tool..especially in conjunction
with the Continental GFS..
http://www.weatherstreet.com/states/gfsx-300-forecast.htm
Will be taking a break from here for a while..
Yall keep the seasonal faith.
And yes, an Arctic air mass will modify before getting here. But it’s all relative. If it starts out -50 in northern Canada and modifies 60 degrees, that would still be 10 degrees here.
We actually hit 30.4 at 6:11 this morning, 26.6 in Jordantown.
Yes, Scott this is last winter all over again! They keep saying this cold weather is coming and it just keeps being pushed back month after month. Just checked weather channel and they have high next week 50s and 60s with I think friday upper 40s! Wow, what a cold shot! Oh well on to spring, I will have to see if my wife wants to move to West Virginia or something, Virginia just sucks for snowfall!
It seems here in Virginia you get one real winter every 5 years. I am getting where I dont really care anymore about the snow, but if we dont get rain or some type of precipitation soon we are going to be hurting this summer unless the spring is just crazy with rain. Something has gotta flip on this stupid pattern we are in!
Where does the idea keep coming up that the expected downturn in temps is being “pushed back”? It hasn’t been. Cold front early to mid next week, slowly stepping into colder pattern afterwards, potential for much colder a few days later, but not certain. Nothing has changed.
No one is calling for an immediate extreme cold shot. No one that I know has called for that at all in Jan. 15-20 time frame.
I love it Kevin. We should remember this post…I’m predicting February as a “shovel” month. Just so all these cup “half empty people” can eat some crow.
Jared…TOTALLY AGREE!
I just keep hearing after the 15th its going to get cold! Looking through all of next week I dont really see cold temperatures, at least not to me! Im like Scott, if there is cold coming shouldnt we be seeing extended forecasts of highs in the 30s?
I just want the 60′s and upcoming 70′s gone!! LOL I know, I must be nuts. I’ll take 40′s-low 50s anyday! I honestly think we have a shot at having a winter were the high never slips below 40. Even after this next so-called cold blast that will give us seasonable to slightly below temps for a 2-4 day period. Then I bet prolonged 50′s after that. That’s just my prediction. If we get a day or two in the 30s as highs or 19 below at night, I will be shocked and amazed! Next time they call for or get snow in West Virginia, like Jared said, I am driving up there, getting a motel and staying the night and going enjoy it, because it will probably be all I’ll see this winter unless we get some passing non-accumulating snow showers/flurries or sleety, icy, snowy muck. I honestly don’t think Roanoke will get moderate-big widespread snow this winter!
Earlier comment I stated…19 below, meant 19 or below…LOL! Leaving out OR made a world of difference. Ibet we don’t see a night this season 19 OR below, NOT 19-below!
Sorry I have been volunteering in school today. I saw that the radar was kaput this morning before I left. I guess those military jets that flew by the Doppler yesterday must have jiggled it a bit too much. You know now that it has been upgraded, it is really sensitive. LOL!!!!
Was able to help with a 1st grade class today as they talked about “Amazing Water”. They discussed water in its different forms – solid, liquid and gas. They even read a book that mentioned frozen water vapor – snow! Was really amazed at one first grade boy who volunteered about how water comes off of lakes and ponds and goes up to make clouds and then when the clouds which have water droplets in them gets heavy, it rains. I was impressed!
On the way back home, I went through some of those water droplets and had to use my wipers. I thought it was supposed to be warm and sunny. What happened?
Tuesday is the 15th. Wednesday through the weekend are “after the 15th.” That’s the time frame we’re looking for the colder pattern to build in.
Seasonable cold is 40s highs/20s lows. I think you will eventually see colder than that … but not necessarily right after the first front passes, or the first few days afterward.
If you’re expecting it to turn bitter cold at 12:01 a.m. on the 16th, you’re going way way way way beyond what any reasonable forecaster has even remotely mentioned.
Pistol pete, I am almost totally in agreement with you :>) :>) :>) ….. except I have got to be outside driving around in whatever conditions we have. As I have bored way too many people here quite a few times in the past, I have seen plenty of winters turn around completely halfway or even 2/3rds through. Some of them have been the reverse situation, a very cold, snowy start, then bing! ….. suddenly winter was pretty much over.
Tease time. Doppler Carol, why did you apologize for volunteering at a 1st grade class? :>)
This may give you an idea of how much I like snow….if someone offered me $500.00 or a huge widespread 10″+ snow I would take the snow in a New York minute over the $. NOT JOKING!!
wdbrand – LOL So funny – comment 31!
I think I’d take the $500 and go skiing somewhere.
Uh, Doppler Gal, comment 31 on my screen was by someone other than the wonderful Mr. Brand …… A senior moment, perhaps?? :>) :>) :>) :>)
You’d only get about $300-something after taxes, anyway. Might be better to stick with the snow.
I just e-mailed my niece and nephew who live in Lafayette, LA about the HPC immense rainfall projections in their part of the country. Niece Elizabeth just e-mailed me back: “I am seeing flash flood warnings all over the TV channels as I type ….”
If Jared and Scott don’t cease and desist with the constant crying, I may become a temporary snow lover JUST TO GET THEM TO STOP WHINING. This has gone on too long, guys. How about taking an oath for the next two weeks to stop asking about when the cold and/or snow are coming?
Letem have at it. The more you cry, the less trips to the bathroom. Less flushing = less water consumed.
CPC is using only blue crayons in the lower 48 for the 8-14-day-period now. We’re still in the white, but out of the orange/red.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif
Our friend Kathryn Prociv writes about elevation and snow on Capital Weather Gang.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/advice-to-snow-lovers-move-to-higher-ground-why-higher-elevations-get-more-snow/2013/01/09/cc6fff30-569a-11e2-8b9e-dd8773594efc_blog.html
In regards to post no. 22, I believe some folks think that come next Monday the models will erase all cold for this area and it will be gospel. They see forcasts that always shows cold coming in 10 days and it’s full of IF’s, BUT’s and MAYBE’s however, mention warmth and it’s as good as guaranteed. We were definitely spoiled in 09/10.
Doug,
That wasn’t very nice!!!
Let it be 80-degrees the rest of the winter, I’ll keep my mouth shut from now on!!!
Meanwhile, while some snow lovers are melting down on this early January day, I’m looking at the Euro, both the operational run and the ensembles, and contemplating how difficult my next snow meter is going to be with a late-week pattern next week that has some obvious winter storm potential in it, but probably not solid enough to be that certain by this Sunday when I have to commit.
KP, that is the best write-up on why the snow falls higher uo that I’ve seen. No models, no graphs, jest common sense and what folks at 3000′ have known all along.
Perhaps accounting for terrain could make the snow meter more interesting.Rather than just having the meter for RKE and BLKBurg
We still have snow/sleet on poor mountain.
Mike
Ah yes Doug – a senior moment!
FYI for radar -
Message Date: Jan 09 2013 15:54:57
KFCX WILL REMAIN DOWN FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS THROUGH THURSDAY JAN 10TH AS
REPAIR PARTS ARE ON ORDER.
Just read KP’s column and it made me wonder…why is it called “orographic” lift and not “geographic” lift? I’m assuming the oro is a Latin prefix for mountains?? Just signed on after a lengthy absence… C,G.
Sorry.. hit the wrong key… C, D.. I know firsthand how difficult that is!
Low this morning was 27.High today was cloudy and cool high only 42.Of course they were calling for a high in the upper 50`s here.Wrong again.Just checked the state temps Petersburg hit 70 Fredericksburg hit 63 Richmond 66 Dulles only 44.Now i`m back down to 39,Dulles 38 Petersburg 66 Richmond 64.What a wild swing in Temps tonight.Kevin whats up with these temps today and this evening?
Mike M: I’ve been seeing your white-capped mountain up there the last couple of weeks. Drove up close to it on Bent Mountain a couple of times.
I stick with official sites on the snowfall contest, so I did the same with the snow meter. Moving away from that would require deciding whose ruler to use, and which technique (snow board vs. ruler in the snow averaged from 3 flat surfaces). And of course those 2 sites are within the areas where the most people live in our circulation area.
Mike from Marshall: There’s a stationary front across northern Virginia now, dividing colder air from the high to the northeast from the encroaching warmer air from the south. That front may work southward overnight and keep our temperatures in check in Southwest Virginia on Thursday and Friday (40s to low 50s)
Matt: Orography derives from Greek. It is the study of the relief in elevated terrain.
Kevin,
I follow this blog because I think you give the best weather information around and the folks that post here are also very informed. Thanks to you and all for the great work.
Now I have a question that I hope you can answer. In your most recent column, you mention a heat island around the Roanoke airport. I would assume that this is due to pavement and radiant heating. Has anyone tried to make an estimate as to how much pavement was covering the earth in 1930 (or earlier) compared to recent times? I know in San Antonio TX, people put fry pans on the pavement during the hottest months of summer and fry eggs, so it has to be giving off a lot of heat.
Kevin thanks for the info, i just went up to 42 now i`m back down to 40.What a wild night for temps.Back to listening to the Beach Boys Cd my wife bought me for Chistmas.Thanks again.
@Doug G, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft — January 9, 2013 @ 11:11 am 12.
…the models were pretty much in agreement that the PNA would be hovering around the neutral/zero line for the next two weeks…”
—
Another good example about how focusing on the index and not the pattern may not lead to the right conclusion.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610day.03.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814day.03.gif
PNA is east of the ridge axis depicted by these charts…yet there’s amplified flow over the eastern PAC…split flow coming ashore beneath the long wave ridge…a deep vortex over Hudson’s Bay…and a positive heights over Greenland.
What’s not to like?
The urban heat island I mentioned is something I have written about a couple of times before, and even the National Weather Service has mentioned in some of its temperature analysis regarding the change in climate normals from the 1971-2000 period to 1981-2010. The area around Roanoke Regional Airport (formerly Woodrum Field) was much more pastoral several decades ago, with pastures and farms common. That has changed over the years, with the construction of Interstate 581, and perhaps more significantly, the development of Valley View Mall in the late 1980s and subsequent other commercial areas around the mall. Since about 1990, there is marked increase in the number of record “high minimums” or the warmest low temperatures on a given date, at the airport site, especially in summer. Similar increases are not noted in other categories of record temperatures, nor are they noted to the same degree in high minimums at most other regional sites. So it is possible that more warmth is being held in at night by the increase in concrete and asphalt surrounding the airport site.
Going back to Travis’ question at 11:06 a.m., so far this winter we haven’t had the correct blocking features north of us, such as a “50-50 low” near Newfoundland or high pressure over Greenland, to force the storm track more south and east. We’ve also had at times a Bermuda high deflecting the storm track deeper inland, and the PNA-negative pattern of low-pressure on the West Coast that tends to keep things flowing SW to NE more to our NW.
Ah, one more condoler (is that even a word?). Thanks very much, matt. I appreciate it. And welcome back. As you can see, I am back to my old self, for better and worse. This blog healed me.
Scott, sorry that you thought my comment “wasn’t very nice!!!” Man up just a bit, you two. I have enjoyed for the most part your worried comments, but as a former postal manager once dressed down (very appropriately, I might add) a fellow letter carrier who wouldn’t stop yelling across the workroom floor, “Hey, Limburger!!! Give it a rest!” I didn’t do near the complaining in the winter of 2009-10 that you two have done recently. And my job was impacted a great deal by those snowy, icy conditions. I think you two have gone overboard with the theatrics. I sometimes do that, but usually it is in poor attempts to be funny.
NEWxSFC: I’ll let you tangle with these winter giver-uppers now.
Perhaps the reasoning for people thinking the cold is getting pushed back is the fact that some facebook pages that many follow have been howling about it since the start of January – 9 days ago. And it just seems, not being here yet that it is getting pushed back. It’ll come! Heck it’s been cold all week minus today.
Tonight both local TV stations said the Tues – Thurs period of next week could bring very heavy rains our way. One weather man went as far as to say at least 2-3 inches and possibly more. We need it but hopefully not all at once. Our day was cloudy, rainy and cool. Stayed in the mid 40′s all day.
@Kevin Myatt — January 9, 2013 @ 8:23 pm #58.
So it is possible that more warmth is being held in at night by the increase in concrete and asphalt surrounding the airport site.
—
A condition which may have an considerable influence on the ‘above average’ temperature trend writ large.
Many rural stations have closed over the years leaving only those stations ‘close in’ to urban(izing) ‘heat island’ areas to contaminate the historical record.
@Kevin Myatt — January 9, 2013 @ 8:29 pm #61.
NEWxSFC: I’ll let you tangle with these winter giver-uppers now.
—
TYVM!