Comments on: Warm days, not much rain through weekend; changes next week

By: NEWxSFC

NEWxSFC — Thu, 10 Jan 2013 03:35:10 +0000

@Kevin Myatt — January 9, 2013 @ 8:29 pm #61.
NEWxSFC: I’ll let you tangle with these winter giver-uppers now.

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TYVM!

By: NEWxSFC

NEWxSFC — Thu, 10 Jan 2013 03:34:20 +0000

@Kevin Myatt — January 9, 2013 @ 8:23 pm #58.
So it is possible that more warmth is being held in at night by the increase in concrete and asphalt surrounding the airport site.

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A condition which may have an considerable influence on the ‘above average’ temperature trend writ large.

Many rural stations have closed over the years leaving only those stations ‘close in’ to urban(izing) ‘heat island’ areas to contaminate the historical record.

By: Michael Hoback

Michael Hoback — Thu, 10 Jan 2013 02:36:53 +0000

Tonight both local TV stations said the Tues – Thurs period of next week could bring very heavy rains our way. One weather man went as far as to say at least 2-3 inches and possibly more. We need it but hopefully not all at once. Our day was cloudy, rainy and cool. Stayed in the mid 40′s all day.

By: Zach

Zach — Thu, 10 Jan 2013 02:29:32 +0000

Perhaps the reasoning for people thinking the cold is getting pushed back is the fact that some facebook pages that many follow have been howling about it since the start of January – 9 days ago. And it just seems, not being here yet that it is getting pushed back. It’ll come! Heck it’s been cold all week minus today.

By: Kevin Myatt

Kevin Myatt — Thu, 10 Jan 2013 01:29:10 +0000

NEWxSFC: I’ll let you tangle with these winter giver-uppers now.

By: Doug G, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft

Doug G, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft — Thu, 10 Jan 2013 01:28:58 +0000

Ah, one more condoler (is that even a word?). Thanks very much, matt. I appreciate it. And welcome back. As you can see, I am back to my old self, for better and worse. This blog healed me.
Scott, sorry that you thought my comment “wasn’t very nice!!!” Man up just a bit, you two. I have enjoyed for the most part your worried comments, but as a former postal manager once dressed down (very appropriately, I might add) a fellow letter carrier who wouldn’t stop yelling across the workroom floor, “Hey, Limburger!!! Give it a rest!” I didn’t do near the complaining in the winter of 2009-10 that you two have done recently. And my job was impacted a great deal by those snowy, icy conditions. I think you two have gone overboard with the theatrics. I sometimes do that, but usually it is in poor attempts to be funny.

By: Kevin Myatt

Kevin Myatt — Thu, 10 Jan 2013 01:28:18 +0000

Going back to Travis’ question at 11:06 a.m., so far this winter we haven’t had the correct blocking features north of us, such as a “50-50 low” near Newfoundland or high pressure over Greenland, to force the storm track more south and east. We’ve also had at times a Bermuda high deflecting the storm track deeper inland, and the PNA-negative pattern of low-pressure on the West Coast that tends to keep things flowing SW to NE more to our NW.

By: Kevin Myatt

Kevin Myatt — Thu, 10 Jan 2013 01:23:14 +0000

The urban heat island I mentioned is something I have written about a couple of times before, and even the National Weather Service has mentioned in some of its temperature analysis regarding the change in climate normals from the 1971-2000 period to 1981-2010. The area around Roanoke Regional Airport (formerly Woodrum Field) was much more pastoral several decades ago, with pastures and farms common. That has changed over the years, with the construction of Interstate 581, and perhaps more significantly, the development of Valley View Mall in the late 1980s and subsequent other commercial areas around the mall. Since about 1990, there is marked increase in the number of record “high minimums” or the warmest low temperatures on a given date, at the airport site, especially in summer. Similar increases are not noted in other categories of record temperatures, nor are they noted to the same degree in high minimums at most other regional sites. So it is possible that more warmth is being held in at night by the increase in concrete and asphalt surrounding the airport site.

By: NEWxSFC

NEWxSFC — Thu, 10 Jan 2013 01:23:02 +0000

@Doug G, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft — January 9, 2013 @ 11:11 am 12.
…the models were pretty much in agreement that the PNA would be hovering around the neutral/zero line for the next two weeks…”

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Another good example about how focusing on the index and not the pattern may not lead to the right conclusion.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610day.03.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814day.03.gif

PNA is east of the ridge axis depicted by these charts…yet there’s amplified flow over the eastern PAC…split flow coming ashore beneath the long wave ridge…a deep vortex over Hudson’s Bay…and a positive heights over Greenland.

What’s not to like?

By: Mike from Marshall

Mike from Marshall — Thu, 10 Jan 2013 01:18:37 +0000

Kevin thanks for the info, i just went up to 42 now i`m back down to 40.What a wild night for temps.Back to listening to the Beach Boys Cd my wife bought me for Chistmas.Thanks again.