Wedge of cooler air keeps 60s/70s away for a couple of days
UPDATE 11:45 PM, 1/10: It got a little warmer than expected Thursday with some sunshine — high of 59 in Roanoke, 55 in Blacksburg — but the wedge has fully set in as of Thursday evening, with low dew points and easterly winds. The somewhat cooler, drier air will mean any showers that fall into it, triggering evaporational cooling, will help keep temperatures down on Friday, in addition to the light easterly winds and clouds. Highs are unlikely to get beyond the low 50s in the Roanoke and New River valleys, unless there is substantially more sunshine than projected. Rainfall amounts will be light, less than a quarter-inch in most places. Springlike warmth is still expected for Saturday and Sunday. END UPDATE
It’s saying something when a “cold” air wedge situation in January means holding us below 60 the next couple of days. The weather map at left, which is actually for Friday morning, shows high pressure centered off the Northeast coast. That high will push some cooler air southwestward through much of Virginia the next couple of days. Cooler in this case means we don’t get runaway warmth that could take us into the 70s … that arrives on Saturday. The wedge of cooler air, once it sets in, could mean temperatures could hover around 50, especially from Roanoke north and east, on Thursday and/or Friday — normal highs for this time of year is 46. It looks unlikely we get much higher than the low to mid 50s the next couple of days. Either day could be one of those odd days when some parts of the New River Valley actually reach warmer temperatures than the Roanoke Valley does, depending on how many peeks of sunshine there are on the outskirts of the wedge. The other thing to note is the that the low-pressure center tracks north-northeast into the western Great Lakes, keeping the firehose of Gulf Moisture well to our west. Some light showers will be possible as some moisture overruns the cooler air the next couple of days, but don’t expect widespread, substantial rain — that may come the the early to middle part of next week.
The surge of warm air from the southwest overtakes us entirely this weekend to create one of the most outdoor-friendly weekends imaginable in January — though distasteful to those desperately seeking snow. It is within the realm of possibility that the following weekend could entirely flip this scenario.
January 10, 2013 - 12:04 AM
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This weather has gone from maddening to downright creepy.
Da Knob: 43*. Too warm to snow and too cool to let the fire go out. Easy on the woodpile tho.
NWS has high temp in NRV at 54 on 1/16. Ok, so we have now pushed the cold air by 1/15 theory back a few days at least. Sure hope this is not a trend, and another case of delay, delay, delay, and then……well, it’s actually not going to get that cold.
Actually nothing is delayed. It has never been the case that it was expected to get significantly colder exactly on the 15th or 16th — merely in the few days AFTER the 15th.
European model this morning has the deep blues and purples arriving on the 18th.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS216.gif
The GFS also has the deeper cold air arriving on the 18th. Blue lines on this map represent surface temperatures (2 meters up, actually) and SW Virginia is squarely between the 0C (32F) and -10C (14F) on the AFTERNOON of Jan. 18, next Friday.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov//gfs/06/gfs_namer_192_10m_wnd_precip.gif
wdbrand – Comment #2 – I agree! 37 here this morning on the ridge. Pretty red sky just before sunrise.
My thermometer bottomed out at 39 this morning just south of Roanoke (1400 feet) — quite a bit colder than most forecasts.
My thinking right now: A series of cold shots, not one lasting blast. I’m leaning against the mother lode of extreme cold reaching Virginia. First shot gets here on or around the 18th. A second one, maybe stronger, arrives Jan. 25-26 or so.
This pattern of repeated cold air shots may last well into February. Snow chances will just depend on timing/track of storm systems and the cold air shots. No certainties with that, but snow lovers’ chances are a lot better with that than the near-record highs this weekend.
“NWS has high temp in NRV at 54 on 1/16. Ok, so we have now pushed the cold air by 1/15 theory back a few days at least. Sure hope this is not a trend, and another case of delay, delay, delay, and then……well, it’s actually not going to get that cold.”
You are declaring a forecast is wrong based on another forecast. Could not the second forecast be wrong, or both? What I have seen for several weeks now, repeatedly from Kevin, is the cold comes after about the 15th, which is not inconsistent with the above forecast. Now, it could be that this happens just as you say, delay, delay, delay, and it not happen, but I don’t think we can make that call until sometime after the 15th.
With level of sunshine we’re getting today, wouldn’t be surprised if some spots scraped 60 after all.
Did that here at 11:20 AM and hit a high of 62.1* at 11:41 AM. Real lite to no breeze stirring. I’ll take it.
Finally getting a thick midlevel cloud deck now, but not before mid 50s to low 60s lots of places, overshooting most high temp projections.
12Z Euro offers an interesting trade-off. Initial wave of cold is somewhat weaker next Friday … but it’s accompanied by a sizeable snow as low-pressure scoots across the Southeast. Here is a frame from Friday morning:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS192.gif
Don’t take this to the bank as the final answer.
I find the developing weather pattern over the next couple of weeks to be very interesting. I don’t know yet if it will snow significantly in Southwest Virginia and I don’t know just how cold it will get or for how long, but there are lots of pieces on the board that will make this coming period intriguing meteorologically. Stay tuned.
Been hanging between 58 and 60 here all afternoon with mostly sun.
Finally seeing the light east winds over much of the region, but the sun poked it up a little higher before that got going and the clouds increased.
Trevar- I clearly stated “I sure HOPE this not a trend.” Yes, the call for cold has always been on the 15th or after, my only point is that at best, per the NWS, the best we will do at this point is for the cold to arrive no sooner than the 18th (3 days later, than the orginial possiblity of the 15th). I never “delcared” anything, only pointing out that the trend is not our friend right now. And, that coupled with the thoughts that the mother lode cold (i.e. 1985 style) is now potentially off the table, there MAY be concern for cold/snow lovers. That’s all.
Just got home. As I look out beyond my back yard, I am seeing a view with a particular pattern of shadows that I have never seen before. Downtown Roanoke and Stewart Knob and Horsepens Mntn are in sun. Beyond those two peaks (and to the left as I look at them) the next mountain slopes are all in shade. Except that both Peaks of Otter are in sun, also. The lower part of Apple Orchard Mntn is in shade, but the summit and the white former NORAD building are in sun. Sorry, viewing fans, no tengo camera. Oops, now the Peaks of O are in shade, too.
The mother lode cold is definitely not entirely off the table yet. And I definitely want to emphasize that the situation with the weather pattern is not confined to one weekend or one event — we could see intermittent cold intrusions for 2 weeks or more after late next week’s arrival. The coldest air probably will not be with the first wave late next week.
In my opinion, for snow lovers in SW Virginia, the issue for latter January will NOT be availability of cold. It will be whether there are sufficiently timed storm systems, guided on the right track, to deliver the goods. I think the Jan 18-31 period has a better chance to end up being too dry for much snow rather than it does being too warm for snow.
Interesting note from Alabama… the NWS here in Birmingham is talking about the potential for a snow event here at the end of next week. My wife said it was time to leave the NRV and move south to escape the cold snowy winters. I may not mention the threat of snow here for a while
Alabama’s potential late next week snow situation and ours are one and the same.
Whatever the Weather Channel names such a storm, IF it ends up developing, I’ll just call it the Larry Cosgrove storm, since he’s the first one I saw who really mentioned the potential for a Jan. 17-22 Gulf to East Coast tracking storm system.
Not ready to jump wholeheartedly on that one yet because the models are going to have a hard time resolving the position of the polar vortex and how much energy is left over behind the early-mid week storm next week and when that energy kicks out, etc. But it’s definitely worth paying attention to.
More than likely, the snow we remember will be the one that snuck in on us. It do happen now and then.
Has anyone noticed that not one time this whole winter have we talked about an “Alberta clipper” affecting us? We even had a few of those zipping by last winter. Can’t remember any winter in recent memory that has been this clipper-less this long for our region.
I’m starting to see signs of Alberta clippers on the longer-range models. Clippers don’t often deliver a lot of snowfall to our region, but they do keep the cold air refreshed.
Also, the size + lady ain’t sung yet. She’s still got 2 months to book her show.
Yea, those can be sneakers. Probably 50 years ago, da clippers were the ones that snuck up on us. It was simply called a surprise then. What is it called now?
I just need the Alberta Clippers to hold off until the end of the month…I have to go to Chicago around the 21st for a few days…definitely don’t need or want a “Jim Cantore thunder snow” experience while I am there!!!
Speaking of Birmingham, AL, take a look at the YouTube video of the local tv Birmingham weatherman on March 12, 1993 predicting up to 18″ of snow in Alabama in the middle of March! It is one of the most surreal things you will ever see involving weather. The best part is when the local anchorwoman looks at him at the end of his forecast and says “seriously”? We all know, he was more than serious, he was dead on correct. Great stuff.
Yeah! Back home after a 4 day run to London, Geneva back to London then home.
Funny Kevin you mention Larry Cosgrove’s storm. I’ve been saying the same thing. The cold is coming and so is the snow potential.
I’m sorry Kevin that you had to deal with JF & SS. If I was a betting man, I would say they will jump up for joy after my update tomorrow.
I’m beat. I will update QWC Friday.
International jet-setter you are, Capt. Quag.
We had some interesting discussion yesterday, yes. I think snow lovers are just venting a bit because there has been exactly 1 widespread 4-plus-inch snow in our region since early February 2010.
I’ve discounted much snow for this winter (although I concede it could happen), BUT, I’ve turned into a rain lover. Lets get some precipitation in whatever form it may be. I guess sleet would be the best because it melts slowly and replenishes groundwater. Putting my bets on whatever rain comes our way tomorrow splits and nearly misses us completely. Drought breeds drought.
Well…I would say that those venters are about to get rewarded big time!
NON-WEATHER.
wd, please read through all of this comment before replying. One thing I cannot stand is the use of “snuck.” The past tense of “sneak” is “sneaked,” NOT “snuck.” I was taught that over and over and over by all my grade school teachers and English teachers in grades 7-12. They would all interrupt some poor soul student (usually a boy) who tried to sneak “snuck” past the teacher. One teacher even ranted at a boy who did it twice in the same week. I bet that the most recent Merriam-Webster dictionary in my house does not even have “snuck” in there. Let’s see. …………. OH NO!!! Verbatim: “Snuck past and past part(iciple) of SNEAK.” WHAT?!?! Just how far has our language fallen?!?!? Well, wd, you get a pass. Emily Littella time: “Never mind.”
Much better rain chance Tuesday-Wednesday than tomorrow. Cold front may stall a while as a low moves along it, and the cold air bounces into the Bermuda high.
I just checked wunderground website to see how much rain fell in Lafayette, Louisiana. The 7.5 inches for a spot in Louisiana on that HPC map of yesterday ….. well, Lafayette EXCEEDED it between yesterday and I guess this morning. 5.45 inches through midnight, and another 3.17 today, for an amazing storm total of 8.62 inches. And that 7.5 estimate was supposed for the 7 days ending 1-16-13.
Kevin, did Arkansas see any big snow totals from the March 93 storm? Or was that just an east coast storm?
Wow, just hit me that this is already 20th anniversary of that 93 storm! Makes me feel old! I was just a sophomore in high school at the time, I remember some houses near my grandparents in Giles had snow drifts covering parts of their roofs. That was one cool storm! Only other storm that can be mentioned with that one is the January 96 storm.
Not a flake at my house, Jared. Some parts of Arkansas got 1-2 inches from one of the 3 disturbances that went into forming the ’93 storm.
Also only got 1 1/2 inches out of January 1996 storm. Generally, the bigger snows here aren’t there, and vice versa, as evidenced by their 6-18 inches in the Christmas night blizzard.
Regarding ’93 — it was an East Coast storm, but the snow area extended into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Still believed to have dumped the greatest volume of snow on the continental U.S. in American history.
In 93 I was two and mom has pictures of me sledding off the roof.
Jared, are you telling us that you are 34 or 35?
Yeah Doug, I know I’m an old man, but I still cry like a baby over these warm winters! Funny how those 2 monster storms in 93 and 96 were only 3 years apart. I guess they will always stick out in my mind as the measure for major winter storms. As much as I enjoyed the 2 massive snows of 3 years ago its just not like those other 2 storms, guess its because they happened in my teen years and I had a blast!
The thing I always remembered about the 93 storm was that it was in the low 50′s that Friday afternoon before it started and the precip actually started as rain before quickly turning to snow. That low pulled some serious cold air to the surface.
That’s passion about weather, Jared — which means you’re always welcome here.
If we go 4 more weeks without a significant snowfall I won’t be telling you to take a chill pill anymore.
Add to list of locations beating Roanoke in snowfall: Jerusalem.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/snow-blankets-parts-of-middle-east-jerusalem-photos/2013/01/10/0daed328-5b3b-11e2-88d0-c4cf65c3ad15_blog.html
Hey, Doug. You might want to trade in your paper Merriam Webster for a newer one. It seems “snuck” is indeed perfectly acceptable as the past tense or past participle of “sneak,” according to Merriam Webster online. http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/snuck
You never know! Maybe before this winter is up we could see the next Superstorm. Like Mr. Baldwin said, it was very warm before that 93 storm and maybe when/if we come out of this warm period it might conjure up another mighty storm to deal with. I do see DT is jumping on a storm chance for next weekend. LOL
Jared Jack Flash, there is ABSOLUTELY NO WAY that you are an old man. Not even middle-aged, pal. You are still a young adult. That was not what I was getting at. I guess you had mentioned a while back that you were on the high side of 30 (like me!! LOL!), but I had forgotten. Based on your level of “enthusiasm” and a few other things, I thought you were still in your early 20s.
We’ve talked about next weekend’s possibility off and on for several days. Larry Cosgrove was all over it in his newsletter a few days ago. Not sure it will happen, but more pieces are on the board than we’ve seen yet.
That’s what I said, Rich. But it certainly wasn’t for most of my life; but of course that covers many decades.
Dew points in the area have dropped quickly from the mid 40s at midday to the upper 20s. That’s the wedge — a cool, dry wedge in this case. I think Friday the thermometer will realize it more.
Won’t do a new blog post tonight. May put a brief update on it.
Weather today was much nicer to work outside today started out cool but warmed up nicely.. Weekend looks to be a real treat to work outside. Yesterday even saw forsythia blooming . Maybe a real early spring? Non weather comment there is hand crafted furniture company in Va. that is closing it’s doors this weekend with a finale sale in Winchester this weekend. Sad to see another hand crafted business close its doors. They made early American reproductions out of walnut and magony. Sad
Is the weather channel missing something or has things been shot again? They have mid to upper 40s highs through next weekend! Arghhhhh
A chilly 32 this morning,but no frost on the vehicles.Calling for a high of 50 today,That will feel great if it happens.Have a great friday all,I`m looking forward to that warmup this weekend.
35 here with light rain our of the east/southeast. Rain gauge says we have had “0.03″ inches so far. Every little bit helps. The Terrys Fork PWS says it is 43 over at that end of the ridge.
“our” is supposed to be “out” -
Blacksburg Mike, I hate to admit it, but I have the same concerns you do, things could still change. Afterall, the discussions on this blog often focus on patterns, specifically what the models show, and what happens. Your point is very valid, the pattern of forecasts over the last two years has been for almost always some hope two weeks out, but it eventually fizzles away. I was just pointing out the irony of delcaring one forecast wrong based on another forecast. Kind of like asking a pathological liar to please tell you the truth.
The other irony is hearing some of the concerns for SW Virginia not being good for snow. I lived in SC for 30 years. In the 8 years I have lived in Roanoke, it is possible I have seen more snow than in the 30 years I lived in SC. I would have no doubt at all except there was a 12 inch snow in 1972 which could push the total there close. So from my perspective, SW Va has been great. Before living here I never saw a white Christmas, I have seen two now, and I have never seen more than 12 inches, I have seen that twice now. You have to love irony, in March of 93, SC did get a good snow from that storm, but I was here in Va visiting friends where there was not any snow, or very little.
Folks who were in the region in 93/96 are lucky…I was in Virginia Beach and we got a lot of rain in 93…and if I remember right, a little bit of snow in 96 but nothing significant (or even significant for that area). February 1989 was the best and most memorable period of winter weather down there…I was a kid and loved it.
I grew up in Beckley. I remember the blizzard of ’93 fondly. I also remember a storm in ’98 that dumped over a foot of snow that was so heavy and wet that the roof of Kroger fell in, and my grandmother’s roof supports cracked. Perhaps that storm didn’t make it over the mountains to affect this area.
I was a little kid in VA Beach back in 1996 and remember getting snow. It definitely wasn’t as much snow as everyone else got on the east coast but we still had almost six inches. I remember using my ruler that I got for first grade to measure the snow in my front yard. I was too young in 93 to remember anything.
I’m also glad I was home from school when Virginia Beach got its record 13-14″ snowfall on December 25th and 26th 2010. I was in the Dec 18th blizzard, skiing at Massanutten, and was at school in Fairfax for the Snowmageddon, but seeing over a foot of snow fall in Virginia Beach was the wildest thing I ever saw.
First time in my life I had to shovel snow in the driveway, and we had to use garden shovels to do it!
For the super storm of 93, I was a senior in high school. I remember being elated and disappointed all at the same time. I LOVE snow, but that year, I was supposed to graduate at the end of May and because we missed over 1 week of school, I didn’t graduate until early June. I have pictures somewhere showing the snow up to the windows on my car. For the storm of 96, I was making my way home to the Bristol area from Nashville after having an interview at Vanderbilt. It started snowing on me around Knoxville and by the time I made it back to Bristol we had about 2-3 inches on the ground and still falling. We ended up losing power for about 7 days with that storm. Was thankful for a wood stove to use at that time.
I hope that this pattern change coming does produce at least 2 good snowfalls. We need snow days!!!
Good Morning from Abingdon. We have had light rain and since we are west of the wedge, temps are heading toward 60 today and we started at 50. We all shall be warm tomorrow is what they are saying. I will be in Gatlinburg next weekend and just maybe we can see some snow on the Smokies.
Nothing new looking ahead this morning. Friday/Saturday next week look pretty chilly, seasonable cold with breeziness — I’m thinking 30s highs west of Roanoke on those days, maybe low-mid 40s Roanoke and east if there is ample sunshine and no snow cover. Euro still zipping a low across the Southeast U.S. late Thursday/early Friday that could time with onset of colder air for shot at snow; GFS doesn’t have this feature, but seems a bit faster and deeper with initial cold. There are more shots of cold coming behind the first one. Euro builds strong PNA+ high over West Coast that would likely lead to multiple cold fronts being pushed south.
As Michael Hoback notes, my discussion of the wedge effect today doesn’t really apply west of I-77. A lot of locations that way will get much warmer today. Roanoke/Blacksburg are upper 30s/low 40s with rain showers now. It may struggle to even get close to 50 here today.
Just came across the Knob, and it sure looked like a few tattle tale signs of ice mixed in several times. It was 35* on top.
I’ve been about half-expecting a few sleet mix reports this morning, considering the dry air it was falling into and the potential for evaporational cooling creating some pockets of sub-freezing air aloft.
New GFS (12Z) also now showing the late-next-week storm system moving across the South. It’s weaker than on the Euro, and an Alberta clipper type low near the Great Lakes isn’t well positioned for what we would typically consider a good snow setup. But taken very literally it does show light snow over much of the area Friday/Saturday before trying to pop a coastal low off the Carolinas.
Here’s a frame from early next Saturday.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov//gfs/12/gfs_namer_186_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
Some healthy rain totals on the GFS for Tues-Wed in our region, some 2+ amounts.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov//gfs/12/gfs_namer_120_precip_p48.gif
Here’s a web page many of you snow hounds will have fun with — the ranking of top 45 impact snowstorms in the Northeast based on the NESIS scale. Some affected our region, some didn’t. There are snowfall maps with each event. No surprise what the top 2 are.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/rsi/nesis
Lunch Time Report from Doppler Ridge – currently 41, very foggy and we have had “0.06″ inches of rain so far. About an hour ago it was 38. Winds seem to be out of the east/southeast.
Pretty much the same where I live, Dop-C. 42, fog licking at the ridgetops, drizzly. Looks like close to a tenth in the rain gauge. 1400 feet a few miles south of Roanoke.
The cold depicted by the 12Z GFS on Jan 23 is truly frightening:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPUS288.html
If this came true it would rival the January 1985 Arctic outbreak.
I LOVE that link Kevin! It is nice to click and see the areas that were affected with each big storm.
Holding at a foggy 41 in Blacksburg…some drizzle from time to time, but the rain from earlier this morning has basically ended.
Gonna need a water pump here on da Knob. 0.06″ since 5 this AM.
New Euro (12Z) looks VERY cold for next Friday … but no storm system.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS168.gif
That would be some near-zero weather on our higher mountaintops if it verified.
As Jason points out with 1 frame, some of the long-range GFS models today plunge us right off the Arctic cliff after January 20.
Snow Lover Bburg, thanks for your 9:24 comment. Are you sure that storm that dumped all the wet snow in Beckley was in the early months of 1998, and not December 1997? Reason I ask is that I had just moved here in Oct. ’97, and we got two small storms here, one near the beginning of Dec. and another on the Sunday right after Christmas (Dec. 27?) as I remember it. There was another snowstorm in late January 1998 that deluged Blacksburg and dumped about 5 inches on 220 south of Roanoke at the Parkway (higher elevation and a lot more snow than downtown or where I was living at the time, near Virginia Western). But for Roanoke city that was about all that I remember.
Anyway, that April I met a salesman from the hills outside Beckley and played golf with him 2 or 3 times. Once he commented that was he ever glad that the previous winter was over. I agreed, because Roanoke got absolutely deluged with 8 inches of rain in both JAN and FEB, alltime records (at least at that time) for those months. He exclaimed “WHAT?!?! You mean you didn’t get piles of snow over here? We had about 5 or 6 feet where I live in just December alone!” Of course the big wet snow in Beckley that you are remembering could have been that late January storm, too.
I just looked briefly at the list of big snowstorms affecting the NE corridor, and I can see that what has a major impact on their rankings is how many people were affected. I lived through the Feb. 5-7th “Blizzard of ’78″ in Greater Boston, and was living in Laurel, MD when the FEB 10-12, 1983 big snowstorm hit. We got about 15-17 inches as I remember it in Laurel, and I had to park my car a mile from my apartment and hoof it the rest of the way coming home from work.
But the impact was nothing like the Blizzard of 1978. Most Boston suburbs got about 25-28 inches, with howling winds, and coastal areas got some horrific flooding, too (it was the highest high tide of the year, and with a NE strong gale blowing the water in ….). Areas to the SW of Boston and near Providence, RI got 4+ feet, with amazing drifting. The storm hit on a Monday evening, and snowed all day Tuesday, and Boston and most of the Greater Boston area was SHUT DOWN for the entire remainder of the week, including Saturday. That’s right, only emergency workers were allowed to come into the city.
Yet on that NESIS scale, the FEB ’83 storm got a 6.25 score and was considered “crippling.” And the Blizzard of ’78 was only a 5.78 and ranked “significant.” Maybe the impact of the 1983 storm was more crippling in some other areas than where I was. But at least for a snowstorm and the impact on a major New England city (“cities,” because Providence was also shut down I think), the ’78 storm may have been the biggest of the 20th century.
Mr. Griggs, considering your sensitive outlook on how the English language should be used, I have decided to not use the “word” you found offensive. In the future, it will be proper all the way. Like in “snucked”.
Five o’clock Friday evening and it is 51. Fog has gone but still cloudy and no more rain this afternoon. Everyone get out and enjoy the weekend!
Your fog and chill is down in the Roanoke Valley now.
I’m going to be posting new soon for the evening.
Good comment, wd. You made me chuckle. My whole long comment last night was intended as a joke. Although what I said about my teachers was abso true. And the fog snucked in here this afternoon.
I’d say. 39.7* here.
Mr. Griggs, it was tooken dat way.
Speaking of “sneak,” do any of you remember back about 4 or 5 years ago here on Roanoke TV? One of the TV meteorologists was saying that either light rain, or fog, or some clouds, or a wedge of cold air, or light sleet or light snow, or even in rare occasions some sun, was often “sneaking” in to the Roanoke valley and/or the NRV. It was WSLS’ Jeff Haniewich, I am pretty sure. It was getting so often (so “bad” from my point of view) that it was happening three or four times per week. Sometimes that word is very appropriate, like today with the fog (at least up here and at KM’s house and other higher elevations, like the homes of the snuck man and Carol of Floyd). Or when a stray shower “sneaks” into a locality.
Anyway, for whatever reason, he doesn’t say that nearly as much now.
@Doug G, SW Roanoke County (1420 elev) — January 11, 2013 @ 4:42 pm #76
Feb. 5-7th “Blizzard of ’78″
—
Interesting to note the NAO in the run-up to Blizzard ’78 was positive and b/coming more so.
D-3: 0.184
D-2: 0.276
D-1: 0.538
D+0: 0.424
Trend: 0.601
AO was < 0 and decreasging.
PNA was positive and increasing.
I/ve long argued a -AO and +PNA are more important feartures for EC snows than a -NAO.