New severe thunderstorm watch issued as line resurges
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH RE-ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA UNTIL 10 PM
UPDATE 3:25 PM: The squall line resurgence is occurring along the Interstate 77 corridor, and this will spread rapidly northeastward toward the Roanoke and New River valleys and along the Blue Ridge in the next couple of hours, with strong winds and heavy rain possible as it passes. The Storm Prediction Center has indicated that a severe weather watch may be needed, once again. Follow the latest watches and warnings from the National Weather Service-Blacksburg. END UPDATE
UPDATE 1:20 PM: The severe thunderstorm watch issued earlier today for some counties west of Roanoke has been cancelled. The squall line is very poorly organized and continues to weaken as it has run out too far ahead of the cold front, the source of lift. Later this afternoon and evening we may some reorganizing of the line east of the Blue Ridge, in slightly better instability and as the cold front gets closer. For the Roanoke Valley/Blue Ridge and points west, it’s likely to be an afternoon of showers with some gusty winds, picking up into heavier rain by late afternoon or evening. Meanwhile, it’s already a deadly day to our south, with a confirmed tornado fatality in Georgia, ending a record 220-day streak nationally without a tornado fatality. Here is a video of the tornado at Adairsville, Ga.END UPDATE
UPDATE 8:50 AM; A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued through 4 p.m. for Craig, Pulaski and Carroll counties westward. It does appear the squall line is moving ahead of the schedule shown on last night’s NAM model output below — it’s already entering the far southwest corner of Virginia, and will likely cross I-77 by early to mid afternoon, entering the New River and Roanoke valleys shortly thereafter, with some heavy rain and gusty winds continuing into the evening. Stay abreast of the current location on our radar view available on the right margin. END UPDATE
It looks like we’re headed more for a late afternoon-evening period for the heaviest of the weather on Wednesday, which in Southwest Virginia, will likely consist of a squall line of heavy rain showers, possibly accompanied by strong winds and maybe a little thunder. Though we are in a slight risk zone for severe weather, the cloud tops 
may be relatively low, which often precludes lightning and thunder. Strong winds are the greatest risk, as downdrafts in the squall line may bring some of the very strong winds aloft to the surface. The frame at left is the approximation of what radar should look like about 10 p.m. Wednesday, with the heaviest rain blowing through western Virginia. Long before this line arrives just ahead of the cold front Wednesday night, gusty winds will pick up from the south to south-southwest, prompting a high wind warning along and west of the Interstate 77 corridor and a wind advisory elsewhere. Historically, the localities in the high wind warning have seen 60 mph gusts in similar setups as southerly to southeasterly winds crash against the ridges and roll over like waves into lower elevations. It’ll be another warm day as we await the line moving at us from the west, with 60s to low 70s possible, and perhaps some intermittent showers as moisture is squeezed out against the higher terrain. Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are expected.
The cold front blasts through overnight Wednesday bringing us back to normal late January/early February temperatures, 30s-40s for highs and 20s for lows. A series of relatively weak “Alberta clipper” type disturbances will dive at us from the northwest over the weekend. Each one will bring a chance of light snow or snow showers, especially west of the Blue Ridge, from Thursday through at least Sunday. The first arrives Thursday night into Friday, and another may push through on Saturday. Don’t expect a ton of snow, but it’s possible a dusting could be laid down even east of the Blue Ridge with one or more of the clippers.
January 29, 2013 - 10:02 PM
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I’ll put ya on the spot…. about what time will the squall line get to Roanoke? Couple friends of mine have winter kayaking plans tomorrow afternoon from Niagara down to Explore Park. You’ve nailed the last couple start times. BTW.. thanks for all you do here!
Mr. Cosgrove in his weather forecast tonight stated that after this weekend winter is over for the south and eastern quadrants of the U.S. I know this is one mans opinion but one that I trust. The few snows we have gotten may have to keep us till next winter. Will be happy with what we have gotten thus far. The wind is blowing and the rhododendrons blooms are really large, almost like a spring night
Matt: It’s tended to run faster than modeling lately — would go with about 7-8 p.m. May be some showers before that though. Earlier is definitely better.
Randy: If Larry Cosgrove is right we’ll probably end up with a winter as warm or warmer than last year, on average. Interesting call on his part since the European model seems to want to go NAO- with some undercutting southern-stream energy about 7-10 days out.
I think it’s possible we may be done with longer cold periods after this one breaks off (when exactly that occurs is a bit uncertain), but not sure we’re done yet with short-term periods or storm setups that could be wintry. Mid-late February to early March often has a way of turning unorthodox setups into snow makers for us. Does winter being “over” mean no more prolonged cold, or absolutely zero chance of snow?
Lots of storm damage and a fatality being reported near Nashville this morning. A 105 MPH wind gust was reported by the NWS at Old HIckory, TN.
Here at home, my temperature jumped from 53 at 11 PM to 65 as of 5 AM.
When are we going to have a real winter like back in the day? Say 70s or 80s winter. Winter has really been a joke the last 20 years not counting 09-10 where it actually stayed cold like its supposed to!
Kevin if there is no blocking taking place as he believes then the cold that does come will be brief with sharp warm ups afterwards. The wind by the way is really howling this morning with a temperature of 59 degrees. Wow!
From Twitter reports, a nasty day in store.
Breaking News Storm @breakingstorm
105mph winds reported near National Weather Service office in Mt. Juliet, Tennesse
Gusts of 64mph recorded at Nashville Airport, power flashes reported as thunderstorm line moves
Wind map is amazing to see this morning. http://hint.fm/wind/
The winds are already picking up here and rain is pelting me straight in the face!! Looks to be an interesting day for all be safe and lets hope winter aint over
Another good day to look at the wind map.
http://hint.fm/wind/
If Cosgrove isn’t careful he will end up placing himself in the same category as DT. Wasn’t Cosgrove the one touting the fact that we would have cold and storminess (potentially big in “appalachia”) through mid-February? Now he says winter is over as of Monday, February 4th (a full 11 days sooner than he previously predicted). I’m losing my patience with these folks.
58* and raining at 6:30am…on January the 30th! I’m moving to Minnasota for three months of the year to see some winter…
Make that four out of the last six nights that my temperature rose overnight. Went from 58 degrees at 10 PM to current reading of 64 in Windsor Hills section of SW Roanoke City at 1066 elevation. Just a hunch that this streak is over with for awhile!
57 this morning and the wind is howling above the tree tops. Light mist and the clouds are racing up out of the southwest heading towards the northeast. Hold onto your hats today!
Any legitimate possibility of isolated tornadoes for the NRV and Roanoke area?
With as much shear is present, tornadoes can not be entirely ruled out, but probably would be brief, low-end in intensity (EF-0 and EF-1) and not all that much more damaging than the wind gusts themselves. If there were significant instability today, it would be a much different story.
I would not be surprised if we get a tornado watch later, since even relatively low probabilities trigger those.
Will this evening be anything like the Derecho the Roanoke area experienced this past summer?
Dr. Greg Forbes of Weather Channel predicted COLD February month on Jan 21st! Why do these guys say these things..
We got a 5-9-inch snow last February out of a 2-day shot of marginally cold air and no Greenland blocking high. If there are Arctic pushes at all, creating boundaries with warm, moist air masses to the south, and the right upper-low track and timing, there’s always a shot at a winter storm setup.
If the Arctic air stops coming down, like it did in February 2011 after a cold but not-all-that-snowy first two months, that’s when I would call winter over.
I would not expect wind this afternoon and evening to be more sporadic and generally not as strong on a widespread basis as the derecho. Instability was extreme in the derecho and almost non-existent in this setup. Shear is far stronger now, but mostly aloft.
Just posted the new severe thunderstorm watch for several Southwest Virginia counties through 4 p.m.
It is apparent the squall line is moving ahead of schedule and likely to arrive during the afternoon rather than the evening (Matt, comment 1, 10:41 p.m., take note!)
Here in Smyth County, we have a Severe thunderstorm watch, flash flood watch and a high wind warning. Washington County and west are under a tornado watch until 1:00PM. It is 60 here with moderate wind but the skies liik really dark and creepy.
The CONUS radar loop shows the squall line essentially extending from Cleveland to New Orleans…impressive!
Lots of Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Watches up all over for this, and I saw a few Tornado Warnings this morning too…I suspect it’s going to be a busy day for meteorologists.
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php
Incredible 62 degrees on the warm side of my house and the wind is starting to rattle the windows, tall trees are swaying. Figuring out what to wear to work this winter has been a challenge – some ‘transitional’ clothing has had to stay around for the warm days.
What’s the word on weather patterns for next week Feb. 7 – 10? Do my students and I need to have snowboots in the car with us down to Atlanta??
I was stunned to wake up and see it was 64 degrees, with a 57 dew point and 16 mph winds at the house today. More like June than January…
There is a clear sign of the warm air surge right before the squall line…places like Morgantown WV showing 69 degrees. Other parts of WV showing the same.
Storm Prediction Center’s new mesoscale discussion reiterates threat of gusty winds in western Virginia, but says squall line may diminish and it’s unclear if new severe thunderstorm watch will be needed.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0096.html
Someone else on here mentioned June. That was my exact thought as I went out to check the mail a few minutes ago. It feels like April/June weather out there. The sky looks like a “Spring Sky”. Bizarre.
I too sure miss a winter that is just that…winter.
My sister said the same to me as Ken in Marion just posted, that the skies were creepy looking in Smyth County. She drove the truck to work this morning in anticipation of possible flooding and downed trees on her way home from work.
Me and the kids all went out without jackets on this morning. Honestly, how often can that happen in January? While I do enjoy the warm weather, I miss my snow from the yard already. I had 12 consecutive days of snow cover. Haven’t had that since the 09-10 winter.
HokieTrax: Right now that looks like a milder and calmer period, especially for Atlanta. Stay tuned, though.
Latest radar shows squall line already is almost through McDowell County,
WV and approaching Mercer County, WV (Bluefield). WHOA NELLY, this thing
is moving right along, friends! Trailing behind the initial push is an
area of several hours’ worth of heavy/steady rain.
I note that the SW portion (VA/KY/TN) is advancing more slowly Eastward,
while more Northern portions (Charleston, WV) are moving Eastward
somewhat faster, making for an increasing “leaning-over” NE-to-SW effect.
Nonetheless, looks like we get smacked in Roanoke at appx. 12:00 Noon to
1:00pm. It DOES show SOME signs of weakening and breaking up, as often
occurs when transgressing the highest Appalachians, and THAT’S a relief!
All-in-all, it’s starting to LOOK LIKE it will be NOT as strong or
severe or bad an event as it had seemed earlier this morning or last night.
Power out in SW County. Must not be too widespread, because I can still see some neighbors’ Wi-Fi networks.
Looks like a few hundred power outages in several Roanoke/New River valley counties.
https://www.appalachianpower.com/outages/
It’s been my suspicion all along that the general wind field today would cause more issues for our area today than anything related specifically to the squall line.
Been without power since about 7:00 am this morning. Generator on but no power in office. Tree took down power lines down road
Have reports of seagulls by Towers Mall. That right there is an omen. Last time i saw seagulls there was during a hurricane. Otherwise they usually only appear out by Bedford that Ive ever seen.
Storms seem to be losing some of their umph as they come across the Cumberland Plateau and enter SW VA. Getting heavy rain in Abingdon and it is windy (not sure how windy). Another day in the interesting life of the weather blog.
Tornado risk pulled back to 2 percent (standard low-end severe risk level) across all of Virginia, while increased to 10 percent hatched (singalling greater risk of EF-2 or greater intensity) in Alabama and Georgia.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1630_torn.gif
I’ve noticed that the line of storms on the radar is not as impressive as it was earlier. Hopefully this will mean our weather won’t be as bad. I agree Kevin, I think the general wind field will be the major concern. With the ground wet from the snow melt trees are going to come down easier than they would otherwise.
I think heavy rain is going to be the real issue this afternoon.
The tornado in Adairsville, GA is only about 15 miles from where my grandparents live…and the squall line is heading to where more family lives around Atlanta.
64* in Rocky Gap at 6:30 this morning. I had to push the little dog out the door even though it wasn’t raining, which is highly unusual for him. They say animals are great predictors but I’m more concerned about Wolf Creek and my ability to get home this evening. It has been swollen since before the big snow (we got 12.5″) and the ground is beyond saturated already.
storms look to be building back up as the come over the mnts. once cell around rural retreat looks like it has a hook echo (tornado?)
Not far south of us, a tornado watch is in effect only 3 counties south of the Virginia line in NC.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0021.html
65.1* at 3 PM. Temp in the basement is 69*. With no sun and add in the wind, I think that’s as high as it will go today. One eye on the weather and the other one on my box of matches.
Whoa..is it just me or did all the storms dissipate and the explode again. Wind howling in blacksburg.
Squall line has resurged near I-77 and will be blowing through much of the region next couple of hours. I’ve updated blog to note.
Did not get the rain I was expecting during the day..only .08 in Goodview, .22 in Jordantown. 66 and 65 for temps.
Severe thunderstorm watch just issued for us just 2 minutes ago.
2 mi. N of Town of Pulaski 3:30
So much for diminished squall line. So much for calling off the severe thunderstorm watch. Pulaski got whacked. I have not seen wind like that since the derecho last summer. Hopefully the severe stuff is done and just deal with the rain.
SPC WW 302039
NCZ000-VAZ000-310300-
URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 22
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
340 PM EST WED JAN 30 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 340 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EST.
HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75
Link and update for new severe thunderstorm watch added to top of blog entry.
I forgot to mention I heard what sounded like thunder to the NW of Pulaski.
Heavy rain, small hail, high winds, thunder and lightning the redeveloped line is here now!
Forgot to add we have some small stream flooding under way and 2 shutters blown off the south end of my house.
Tornado watch is now passed and severe weather threat seems to be east of us but we are dealing with torrential rains. Washington Co under a flood advisory and radar looks like it will continue into the night. Creeks are out of their banks.
Unbelievably heavy rain and high winds here in NW Montgomery County hit at 3:59 PM and lasted about 12 minutes.
Heavy rain with strong gusts now in Christiansburg. Satellite TV went out.
It is looking very bad on radar. There’s going to be some damage I am afraid.
Heavy rain with strong winds in Ellett Valley just east of Blacksburg. The gravel state maintained road is mostly deep mud with ruts. It’s going to be impassable if this rain keeps up.
Boy did it resurge!! We heard some thunder, then the wind got really stiff, some of the smaller trees were bending over quite a bit, the rain was coming in sideways. But it seems to have passed now. Those east of Montgomery County watch it!
When the squall blasted through Blacksburg, it was briefly like experiencing a hurricane with sideways rain…impressive. But, no thunder as far as I could hear.
Wow, looks on radar like the severe storms that hit Giles and Montgomery are heading northeast toward us in Greene! Kevin, do these storms look to hold together or will the Blue Ridge lay the smack down on them as usual? I am figuring the time frame for arrival will be around 6 or so, correct?
clarkdocvet – So you want to go to Minnesota for snow, huh? My son is in Minnesota and has said his temps have been below zero for several days last week. Yes, he has had snow but I don’t know if I could deal with temps that low for very long.
Was volunteering at school today in Riner (VA) when they did the calendar and the weather for today – their official temp for the day was 65!
Renee in Rocky Gap, I absolutely believe that animals can sometimes be wonderful predictors of weather. Please do a google search of “Cindy the Weather Dog” and choose the entry that was on the Washington Post website. There were statements by some survivors of the tsunami in Thailand that the cows and other farm animals had all moved to higher ground before the tsunami hit.
My first dog was very afraid of thunder, and somehow could predict it hours in advance, not just 30 minutes like Blondie. Once I headed off for a morning golf tournament, and a fellow golfer asked me about my dog. I told him that the outlook for our golf outing wasn’t very good, because she was under our bed when I left. Sure enough, big t-stowms rolled in and cancelled the tournament after just 4 holes.
Downtown Roanoke seems to be getting off pretty light. Heavy rain now. Didn’t see any gusts I thought were over 40 mph.
Still in the midst of the heavy stuff here (SW Roanoke City, Winsor Hills district, 1066 elevation). Saw outside temp go from 64.2 to 57 in ten minutes.
I imagine things would have been much, much worse if the sun had been out for a good portion of the day, it barely even shown through a couple of times today.
Kevin, i.dont understand when u say the storm line resurgence. To me looking at the radar that the line hasnt changed at all during the day
It broke off substantially between about Bluefield and Boone NC from noon to 2:30 p.m., approximately Then the line intensified quickly on I-77 corridor about 2:30-3 p.m. Actually doesn’t look as robust now as it did 30-45 minutes ago.
A sunny day and 75 degrees and I think we’d be looking at a substantial tornado threat now and widespread wind damage. Pulaski County appears to have been hit the hardest from what I can tell now, with 1,000+ out of power and serious damage to at least one structure.
The cold front has not made it here yet. And even down here the temps are threatening to break the alltime record of 83* for Jan. 30th in Jacksonville. I just saw 84* on my Camry thermometer. But it is a dry 84*, with strong southerly or SSW winds seemingly steady at 20-25. Supposed to get some rain and showers late tonight and maybe extending into Thurs. wee hours.
Brandon, I believe it was you that commented about Sunday that Charlotte NC got an ice storm on Friday. When I drove through NC on I-77 on Saturday morn between 9:40 and a little after 11:00, I saw lots of evidence of that. Many abandoned cars and especially lightweight vans and tiny pick-up trucks on both sides of 77, with the majority of them being within 25 miles of Charlotte. Also could see some ice on tree branches close to the highway in central NC. I am glad that most of SW Virginia avoided that.
My body has acclimated to all this warm weather. Low of mid-30s and high in low 60s with wind tomorrow may deter me from the golf course, which it would not have done on Sunday or Monday. But one more round on Friday for sure. Yippee. I definitely lucked out with the weather this week here.
P.S. I am posting this from a different motel than the one I am staying at. It is doubtful that I will be able to post again until I leave Florida, probably Friday late or Saturday.
I did note a few lighting strokes west of Roanoke on my lightning alert software just before the line came through.
Sorry to interrupt the nowcasting of the t-storms. But I have little access now. There was discussion about whether winter would be ending soon. The NAO has not been a big positive number for a monthly average since at least last April. We are now getting more overdue for that to happen. If it happens in FEB, I bet winter will end by and large, but with a few windows of opportunity, as KM likes to call them. That along with a + AO were key in the sudden end of winter in mid-February 2011, as KM mentioned happening.
Very heavy rain / wind in cave spring around 5pm
Whatever the future of this winter, it’s coming back for at least a few days after this squally rainy stuff clears. And we’ll be watching not one but maybe two different Alberta clippers for some light snow potential over the next 5 days. Subfreezing highs likely on Friday.
0.46″ since this morning. And most of it fell in a 15 minute window. Then again, I don’t know how reliable my rain gauge is. Seemed accurate enough when I had my de-liars out and could check them against the PWS. I dumped them and puttem to bed for the winter freeze tho. Tickled for what we got.
… and it’s not over yet.
Its absolutely pouring here now. Heaviest rain of the day. Winds died down a lot. My unofficial rain gauge is showing just under 3″. The current conditions at KHLX indicate 12 mph wind and 3.78″ rainfall.
Right now, I am just west of Bedford on 460 waiting out the rain till I can get back on the road to Roanoke. Heavy rain–too heavy to drive through if one is inclined toward self-preservation–but happily, far less wind than I expected.
It is almost 6 pm and it is still raining – hard at times. No winds – yet. Temps have stayed around 59 here most of the day but are now down to 52. Rain gauge is showing “1.00″ inches so far today.
Kevin, when I use your Radar/Future Cast and zoom into my neighborhood – why does it show an empty circle around the Doppler? I know it is raining there. Could it be because the Doppler is up on top of the ridge and does not detect the area “underneath it”? Just was wondering because I have seen this a couple times.
The difference of 5 miles…Jordantown has 1.40 and I in Goodview have .68. At one point one squall put Jordantown at .60 from .22 while I didn’t get anything and sat at .08
I am wondering what the damage would be in Pulaski if the trees had leaves on them.
Weather wise, should I make the drive to Blacksburg for the game tonight or watch it at home? Any thoughts about how long the rain and wind will last?
Some damage in Fairlawn a little more than a mile from our house…looks like the winds flipped several U-haul trailers and smashed some cars into each other…also partially collapsing a brick wall of the Foodette. And across the street some fencing was blown apart, and a trampoline flung into a tree and badly bent.
The hill that shelters our house did the job again…high gust of just 22. Folks just a bit away didn’t get quite so lucky.
Spotter in Bedford County reported 62 mph wind gust.
Lead line of storms just hit here. Not bad, only about 5 minutes of high wind and heavy rain. Just watched the weather and the next seven days are dry and high in 40s. Guessing snow and cold chances were overblown once again by the experts! Outside of one very cold week this winter has been very similar to last, warm and pretty dry. Oh well, always next year!
Wow, my son and I were in the car and both our iPhones started screaming a siren sound. It was a severe weather alert for flooding. Scared us to death. But we don’t know how the message came in – it’s not on texting or phone so there must be some warning system in place through the phone company perhaps.
It is raining buckets here in Hokieburg and the creek, a branch of Stroubles creek near the Duckpond is just about up to the bridge now so they may be closing that road off soon.
Rain gauge at KHLX up to 4.18″, mine up to 3.5″. This is lasting much longer than I thought it would this morning. From moderate drought to super wet in a week.
Unconfirmed report of 9.85 inches from Boone, NC. Judging by flooding issues they’re having near there, may be accurate.
HokieTrax: I received the same alert. Believe it’s something the government asked the carriers to set up.
In case you did not notice … it’s raining.
Hokie Trax – I received the same weather alert on my Android. It went off while the radio was broadcasting their alert. I wandered over the house trying to figure out what was happening – HA!
I’ve started a new thread to take us into the evening with heavy rain now becoming the main focus.
Tornado watches just issued for the DC metro area… Still 63* and humid as heck. Feels like May.