Winter storm warning: A wet day turning to wet snow
WINTER STORM WARNING NOON TO MIDNIGHT
UPDATE 11:30 AM: A short update to say, well, not much has changed. NWS-Blacksburg is estimating 3 p.m. for rain to snow changeover in the Blacksburg area and 4 p.m. for Roanoke. That could vary an hour or two either way. Some wintry mix and snow reports are occurring on the northwest fringe of the moisture shield in West Virginia into the far southwest corner of Virginia. The Radar / Future Cast link at right on this blog will give you an approximate idea where the mix (pink) and snow (blue) are being reported. END UPDATE
Summary: All indications are that the region is on track for 4+ inches of wet snow beginning early to mid-afternoon and continuing into the evening. Snow will be heavy at times with reduced visibilities and rapid collection of slushy accumulation on some road surfaces near rush hour. It should be over by 10 p.m.
It’s snowing this morning – in Jackson, Mississippi. And so begins a slow, sloshing trudge from a not-all-that-cold rain this morning in Southwest Virginia (temperatures in the 40s, mostly) to a potential heavy, wet snow event by late afternoon and early evening. The cold pocket aloft with the upper-level low spinning over Mississippi will slide northeastward, and a surface low forming just east of Atlanta will begin pulling cold air southward as the day progresses. We’ll likely see the rain/snow line begin to slip southeastward through West Virginia by mid to late morning as snow reports also begin to increase in central/eastern Tennessee and into some of Kentucky and eventually far southwest Virginia with the advancing upper low. During the afternoon, say between 1 and 4 p.m., temperatures are expected to be cooled in the low and mid levels of the atmosphere enough over Southwest Virginia east of I-77 (may happen before then to the west) that snow will begin reaching the ridgetops first, then progressively lower, with air temperatures also decreasing to near or barely above the freezing mark. If you’re anxiously waiting on snow this morning, this process will be like watching paint dry. Snowfall amounts by all available guidance appear to be on track for widespread 4+ 
inches across the region, with some amounts up to 12 inches, or maybe a little more, especially in higher elevations along the I-81 corridor southwest of Roanoke and westward. The snow won’t last long, probably no more than 5 to 8 hours at any location, but will likely come down fast and furiously at times, with some low visibilities developing near rush hour. It’s that intensity that is expected to overcome a relatively mild, moist ground, collecting on grass and exposed objects first, then forming a slushy layer on the ground once the rate of snowfall exceeds the melt rate. Once the thin layer of slush develops, snow can collect on top rapidly. In the heaviest periods of snow, roads may become slushy and even ice/snow covered — I-81 southwest of Roanoke is a particular concern, with its steep hills and curves, and considering the trouble that ensued there from heavy snowfall rates in December 2009. Due to the heavy, wet nature of the snowfall, especially in its early stages, there may be some tree and power line damage, similar to what we saw last Feb. 19. This snow will probably be moving east of us by 10 p.m., and a cold night with lows in the upper teens and 20s will ensue that will freeze slush and water on streets.
January 17, 2013 - 6:52 AM
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The first small sign of what is to come: Roanoke’s dew point has slipped a few points to near 40 and the temperatures has dropped from 47 to 45 as north to northwest winds have picked up a bit. It’s often the case in a situation like this that the surface temperature creeps downward ever so slowly, and then takes jumps of 3-7 degrees or more in the last hour as changeover occurs. On March 30, 2003, Roanoke’s temperature dropped from 43 to 32 in an hour as rain turned to snow.
And before someone asks — I don’t think surface temperatures starting in the mid to even upper 40s will play much of a role to deter the snow in this kind of setup. The important temperature action is upstairs. The surface temperature will just be along for the ride once all that gets in order.
Good morning, Kevin, Doug, and all of the bloggers! Love this blog, love to watch it blow up when snow is forecast! Yes, Doug, I’m a TWLS in the Henry County area. I teach at a local college so this snow probably won’t cancel any of my classes unless it starts much earlier than expected (I don’t have classes on Friday) but I love snow and am so happy to see this pattern change. Kevin, thanks so much for all you do. I love the positive, community feel of this blog, and hands-down, it’s the best place to get accurate, current weather info. My husband was supposed to be traveling back from N. Va. tomorrow but I warned him yesterday about the forecast – hopefully he’ll be able to get on the road this morning. Doug, thanks for rooting for the TWLS clan! Let it snow!!!
Kevin, can you give us some thoughts on the wide ranges of accumulation for Roanoke? 1-3, 4-6, 9-12 are very disparate options. What is causing the differing of opinion? Also, can you give us your famous percentage change of each happening?
Thanks!
Also, I didn’t get into great detail about my guesses on snow totals vs. official totals. The major entities have all moved pretty close together, so just a general 4+ with locally up to 12, or even more, especially along I-81 southwest of Roanoke and westward. In some ways, this may end up being a much more straightforward event than many we see. The players are pretty well defined and intense, not some of the flighty disturbances with narrow snow swaths we often see.
Sorry, meant percentage chance, not “change”
bryhylf1: Like I mention above, it seems the major entities like the NWS and most TV stations have moved fairly close now. Dave Tolleris is projecting 9-12 for Roanoke and 12+ to the southwest, which isn’t out of line entirely, if changeover is a bit earlier and some of the precipitation rates on the models come to fruition. Channel 7 is projecting 3-5 for Roanoke now, the weather service is at 4-8, I was at 3-7 late last night, HPC is high risk 4+, moderate risk 8+ and slight risk 12+. The track and evolution of the storm seem pretty solid now. Sure things can vary as they develop, but there’s not much reason to think they will at this point. Last questions are how quickly it changes over and how much moisture falls as snow after changeover.
Dew point down to 33 at Roanoke Regional Airport as of 7 a.m. Pretty good drop.
Kevin, I would appreciate it if you would bring my recent comment at the end of the previous thread to this thread. I was looking back through the archives of this blog while you were setting up this thread. Thanks. And you showed what a class act you are by quickly coming to the defense of Robin Reed and WDBJ7.
By the looks of the radar, the Tazewell/Bluefield area is already getting frozen stuff.
If you would have told me 2 days ago that we were very likely going to have a moderate-heavy snowfall today I would have checked my legs to see which one was being pulled…LOL! I will say though that you…Kevin and DT toyed around with the concept days beforehand and Iwas skeptical!! Good work on mentioning this days ago when noone else had it on it’s radar…pardon the pun! I remember for days thinking….sunny and 50-degrees isn’t going to yield squat!!
Dew Point at my house was down to 34, and air temp was down to 39…both were falling steadily. We nabbed an additional 0.37″ of rain, bringing us up to 3.44″ total. I’m heading home early today…don’t want to have problems on the roads if the snow rates are as hard and fast as every indication says they will be.
Doug: I can’t really move a comment from thread to thread in this system, just copy and paste.
I’m going to make this request of everyone. We had a vigorous discussion about Channel 7 and Robin Reed in the last thread. I would ask that we keep it there and not carry it over to this thread, especially going into storm mode. Here is the link to the last thread if you want to read or comment.
http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/2013/01/there-may-be-a-wait-for-it-but-snow-is-on-the-way/
Whether we get snow or not, we needed this change into a wet pattern badly. I know a few folks are dealing with flooded basements right now, but as moister starved as we’ve been, this is a good thing.
Any snow we get will help soak into the ground.
Temp at 40.3* and DP at 37.3*. Dew point trackin right along with temps. Droppin.
Roanoke’s dew point has dropped 10 degrees in 3 hours. Temperature has slid 4 degrees. We’re seeing the cooling start to happen, folks. Lewisburg, WVa, is down to 32, Bluefield at 35. Also now seeing VT Airport at 37 in one listing.
My PWS temperature is dropping like a rock this morning. I’m sitting here watching it go down with every update. 41.7* currently.
Mr.Griggs, I did receive an e-mail. Thanks for passin it along. 40.1* now. Down 0.2* in less than 5 minutes. Good sign if you’re doin a snow dance.
I’m down to 37 degrees in Radford
Down to 37 from 41 just an 1 1/2 hour ago.
I do like the look of the 00Z GFS clown map…bullseye centered right over my house! I doubt we get to that 12-15″ mark though, I’ve felt pretty reasonably confident in a somewhat widespread 4-8″, with some spots hitting double digits.
If the NWS stations are correct…the cold air is knocking on the border door…Bluefield is reporting 35 degrees with a 31 DP…Lewisburg 32 degrees with a 21 DP. Blacksburg 37/37.
Kevin…you beat me to it!
Another 1/4 inch in the gauge since late last night, 4.15 inches since Monday morning. 40.5*
A reminder folks: When we get to the “it’s snowing here” or any other reported conditions, be sure to identify at least generally where you are located, with elevation if possible. Some of you of course, like Doug above, have it with your name tag line.
I will try to remember to follow this myself, as I will be reporting from 2 different locations today. Right now, just south of Roanoke at 1,400 feet elevation, my thermometer is showing 42 degrees.
Now, I LOVE snow. But I have an important appointment for my son in Roanoke today of all days. (The appointment is at 11:00 a.m. and we’ve waited 2 months for it) And could last a few hours. I’m in Dublin. I know you don’t give travel advice…but give me travel advice!
Kidding….no,really..give me advice.
I’m thinking about rescheduling though. I do not want to get stuck on 81.
Doppler Carol:
My friend Chris, that runs the Kings Weather Station here in Wythe County just sent me these links for the station he just installed in your Floyd County. I’m not sure exactly where it is, but I bet you can figure that out. Enjoy.
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KVAFLOYD6
http://www.weatherlink.com/user/floyd/
http://www.findu.com/cgi-bin/wxpage.cgi?call=EW0321!Floyd&last=120
Angela, I don’t think it will be bad on the roads at 11 a.m. The later it goes into afternoon, the more chance it could get that way, and things will happen fast once they get going. My guess now is 3 p.m. for when I-81 southwest of Roanoke is pretty slick, but I could be off 2 hours either direction.
Anyone want a good laugh?!? The Weather Channel has named this storm….IAGO. It would make Shakespeare very proud!
I’m between Willis and the Parkway @ 2850 ft elev. Temp has dropped 5 degrees since 6:00a, currently 36.5
I’m going to play the name flipper for today…since for the moment I’m in the ‘burg, and later I’ll be back home…15 miles west and 200′ lower than where I’m at now.
That’s about what I figured,Kevin. I was more concerned about the return trip should the appointment run even one or two hours. ~Sigh~ I’m leaning towards trying to rescheduling.
It was 35 about an hour ago and there was some light rain but now the temperature has gone down to 34.
Breakfast next and then I will check back in.
35 here in CC. Man this is looking like fun.
The weather service has issued a statement about some patching freezing rain in higher elevations west of I-77. You’re getting close to icing temperatures, Dop-C. Until some of the upper layers get cold enough, you might get a bit of ice if it goes down a little more.
Honestly, I’m kinda surprised to see this level of cooling this early. A dynamic cooling/upper low snow situation is often like stair steps leading to a cliff … you go down and step at a time for what seems like forever, then the plunge.
I had to come to Winston-Salem this morning for my wife’s doctors appointment. Hope we are outta here by early afternoon because these people do NOT know how to drive in snow at all!! The trip up Fancy Gap and Hwy 52 might be exciting later today…steady rain all the way down the mountain with gusty winds.
What would this level of cooling do to our snowfall expectations– increase them?
If it leads to snow starting earlier, it definitely could increase snow amounts.
Kevin-re dynamic cooling…did you see this in the Raleigh discussion this morning:
“IN MY 14+ YEARS FORECASTING
AT RAH…HAVE NOT SEEN THIS MUCH DYNAMIC COOLING TAKE PLACE SINCE
POSSIBLY JANUARY 2000 (BACK THEN…ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW).
”
BTW, 39.9 here in Hardy dropping from 45 at 5AM…raining but appears to be some mix in there…
39*. Wind is also kicking up. One gust over 17mph and mainly up to 13mph, and coming outta the N and NE.
I was checking the forecast charts for Blacksburg, and we’re a couple degrees ahead of schedule for cooling, it would appear.
And the waiting and anticipation begins….oh how I love that word *snow*!
I feel like a kid hoping to get out of school again.
Allan Huffman’s snow forecast:
http://cdn2-b.examiner.com/sites/default/files/styles/large_lightbox/hash/3b/b4/1358427931_1714_RDU.jpg
Kevin, on the radar you can see the center of rotation moving into Alabama. Is that going to pull more moisture into the system as it moves this way?
My thought on today. Cooling has already started as stated above and I saw this at my house also. The dog water out at 5am it was 45 before I left for work it was 43 that was 2:30 hours. FYI 1000ft Roanoke City. Snow will start earlier than expected giving the totals an up tick. I think I will see 7-9 at my house. I will agree this is mostly based on hope.
I had to take the dog to the vet this morning for tests here in B’burg/C’burg…looking west toward Pulaski/SW Giles already looks like snow falling on the mountains.
Looking up at the sky, it looks as if it wouldn’t take much to start freezing.
Gonna take a little break to nap beside my son. I’ll get your new comments up a little later. Gonna be an interesting day I think.
Snow lovers unite!! It is going to be a fun day!
My weather apparatus is still un-replaced, so I can’t report on the temps etc. here unfortunately, but looking at the NWS for Elliston it says the dew point is 36 and the temp is 37. We are forecast for a high of 40 today, do you think we will reach that Kevin? I’m not seeing it. I walked outside a bit ago and even though it is raining, it “feels” like snow. I have a hard time seeing the temps going up from here on out.
Anyway, we are stocked – hubby is making a shepherds pie for dinner tonight, we have our “french toast” supplies (not really…we bake our own bread so no need to go Krogering for bread), got a bottle of wine, stuff for hot cocoa, some Baileys and Kahlua…it should be an awesome day and I cannot wait to get up in the morning with the sun shining on the newfallen snow!
Ok..need to go set up a board so I can at least measure depth! This is happening, isn’t it?! Now I will yell – WOOP!!!
Enjoy the nap…I think you’ll need it!
I checked the weatherbug station at Riverlawn ES, which is a couple miles from my house. Temp there has dropped more, now down to 35.4 degrees. Hard to tell what precipitation is falling to the west of there based on the weather cam, but the mountains to the west/north in Pulaski are hard to see. Not sure if that’s because of snow, rain, or clouds…
Still raining in Blacksburg by the airport.
Or as Gandalf would say “And so it begins…”
In my previous comment, that temperature was actually the Radford HS station, while the Riverlawn ES station is about 2 degrees warmer right now.
Rats…I’m having some website issues this morning. Working on it.
Well it’s raining here in Goochland again and 44 degrees dewpoint 43.
Trevar, yes that is the upper low rotation that will bring the snow to the region not the stuff moving thru now especially east towards my area.
I know many people like the snow and cold, but I really dread, and would choose to pass on days like this. Snow is never any fun when you must get out in it to go somewhere.
Trevar: Yes the spin in Alabama is bringing more moisture up.
Tina: Once you get below 40 you won’t be getting back to 40 today.
32 temp and 32 dew point with “unknown precip” at Wise, Va now.
A reminder: At any time, report precip types falling at your location on this web site, to help researchers with radar studies. (There is a link to a site to get latitude and longitude)
http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/projects/ping/
Also … you can check out side-by-side comparisons of current National Weather Service winter advisories and possible wording changes they are considering for the future, and offer your two cents worth about whether you like them or not.
http://nws.weather.gov/haz_simp/messages.php?wfo=rnk
http://blueridgeweather.blogspot.com/2013/01/dry-slot-dont-think-so_17.html
Here’s my blog post about the dry slot and why I don’t think it impacts us.
Looking at the nearest weather bug weather station to my house its 40 (Roanoke City Gov School at PH). Looking at the next closest, Salem Civic Center, its 39. No matter the temp is dropping and fast here at fort 1000 ft. I see snow starting early.
Also I can only post from my phone so forgive any grammer and spelling today.
Zach – I was just about to comment that I was worried about that dry slot. Thanks for posting those short-range model images!
That area of precip in Georgia and TN has really filled in and looks to be increasing in intensity. Looks like some energizing is taking place.
The radar is certainly looks impressive….something tells me that flooding might be the bigger story than the snow fall.
33.4 and raining here @2850 elev in Floyd County
Had to go outside to my car (forgot my lunch in there) and the temp has dropped dramatically since I left home this morning. Still praying that hubby makes it home before the roads get bad.
Where is the best place to get a weather station? I wish I had already bought one, but haven’t gotten around to it yet.
Just an observation, and not too bitter. I’m a huge fan of the National Weather Service. However, once again, when bad weather is forecast, the NWS is limping or out of service altogether. This time, it’s the radar that’s down. The last time, several weeks ago, the weather radio was off for two or three days – or, until the weather cleared up. A nice guy I spoke to at the NWS in Blacksburg explained that ice damaged the transmitter. In the nearly three years I’ve lived here, this seems a consistent pattern – whenever the weather gets interesting the NWS has problems. Does something need updating, perhaps, maybe its equipment?
The temperature in Ridgeway has fallen from 44.6 at 8:50a.m. to 41.5 at 10:28a.m. with a dewpoint of 41.
Temperature has dropped a full degree in in hour to 34 at 2690ft on Poor mountain. I’ve just noticed rain starting to get that ‘ floaty’ look with a snow flake mixed in here or there. NWS saying rain between 11 am and 3pm. Is this indicative of a warm nose ahead of the main precipitation area?
Mike
I’m going to show my weather ignorance here, what role does the dew point play in us getting snow?
39 and raining where I’m at in downtown Roanoke. Very boring so far.
Kevin,
It’s been raining here at the Doppler all morning. Dopler Carol just left with some of my hammers and a crowbar to see if she can ‘knock some sense’ into the Dopler, to recharge it, as it were. Look for a full report upon her return. Is it too late to make my prediction for the season’s first significant snowfall contest;-)
Temp and dewpoint really haven’t changed in the last 2 hours down in Goodview. Currently 39.8 with a dewpoint of 38.5. Bucket just tipped again so we sit at .21 inches for the day.
Penn Forest. 1,260 ft. 37.6 and holding.
It took about three hours to go from 38.8 to 38.0 this morning but then it just dropped 0.4 in a half hour. It’s definitely plateaued now (Woops! Just popped up 0.2! 37.8 ).
I’m afraid many might get caught out by this storm if they rely solely on knee-jerk observations of current conditions and ground temperature to form a plan of action. Only when I lived in Texas and experienced a once-in-a-lifetime snow event did I learn to appreciate the temperature-shocking power of frozen precipitation falling through the atmosphere (though it only stands to reason, doesn’t it?).
[Back to 37.6 ...."Hang On!"]
Steady rain coming down here. Is thundersnow still a possibility?
The lowering dew point is a sign of cooler and somewhat drier air moving in. That will help with some minor evaporational cooling later, but its main role is just showing that the modified Arctic air is creeping in at the surface. That will help the snow reach the surface once the upper layers are below freezing.
Agree, Forest Lurker. The important action is going to happen above us. That is the engine, the surface temperature dropping to near the freezing will just be a train car pulled along the track.
Snow being reported at Wise, Va in far southwest tip now.
Kevin,
That’s Mr Blurker to you!
(Sorry. Couldn’t resist. I’m in a narcissistic blogging refresh loop today.)
And that’s why we come to this blog…for Kevin’s analogies
(I hope I used the proper term, I’m a math guy..English not so much lol)
One storm he uses baseball, the next might be golf. This one is a train…and here’s hoping there’s a massive diesel engine coming our way!
Whoa! 37.6 to 37.0 since last post!
Penn Forest – 1,260 ft.
Shanon “Norse Snow” I got an Accu-Rite weather station at Walmart…it has an outdoor unit that does temperature, humidity (and dew point), plus wind speed. It was around $50, and I put a 2″ Schedule 40 PVC pipe in the ground to mount the transmitter to…next to my CoCoRaHS rain gauge, and both are next to the veggie garden we have.
I like the station…with one minor quibble: there is a display that flip flops between Wind Chill, Dew Point, and Heat Index depending on the air temperature. I’d prefer to just leave it on Dew Point…but other than that, it’s been great!
Sorry…”Nurse” not “Norse”, unless you happen to be a part of the Vikings of the Valley in your spare time!
Blacksburg is hovering at 35 and Boone NC is at 42.
Wise looks like rain to me http://www.mcs.uvawise.edu/webcam/#
Kevin,
What’s a good time interval to use for a temperature log?
I figured I’d start at 11:00 and set the kitchen timer to record the temps today. Then I could just post a little roster here and there instead of polluting the thread.
Henry: Reporting station there now was snow — now back to “unknown precip” — may be out of town and/or at a higher elevation.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KLNP.html
It is automated, so the report is somewhat suspect, but at 32 it’s definitely freezing/frozen.
We have a WWA for tonight 1-2 inches possible. Driving home to Pulaski tomorrow with my three year old daughter. Looks like she will get to play in the real stuff this weekend at her grandparents. I wonder how route 460 will be by tomorrow afternoon?
Thanks OJ! LOL, can’t say I participate as a Viking. Irish Lass maybe hehehe. I’ll definitely check into that one. I’ve been wanting to get one, but just haven’t done it yet.
Here’s a pic of snow in Mississippi this morning.
http://instagram.com/p/Ultv30wKV6/
My hubby is reporting sleet falling close to Greenbrier River (? I think) in WV. He’s heading towards Lewisburg.
I liked Leo Hirsbrunner’s tweet “This storm has such UVV it’s producing it’s own cold air….not grabbing cold air from the north….it’s making it within…dynamic cooling” Of course we know that Leo is a HUGE snow fan!!!
Temps fluctuating quite a bit here. It was down to 32.5, went up to 34.4, now back to 32.9, all in the space of 20 minutes or so.
Time for a break from the blog.
When the changeover really gets going, it can move pretty quickly. NWS-Blacksburg is currently estimating 3 p.m. at Blacksburg and 4 p.m. at Roanoke, earlier of course to the west and in higher elevations.
Good time for a nap before then. I’ll post a short update to say, well, nothing much has changed.
Hello dear Weather Journal friends! I saw both fish scales and horse tails yesterday … but is has been/is expexted to rain, so no surprise there. No snow headache yet and the knees feel fine. The weather station on the roof here at work currently says “Increasing clouds with little temperature change. Precipitation possible with 24 to 48 hours.” Optimistic little thing. I have a feeling that whatever snow event we do get is going to show up rather quickly, which is exciting!!
Good Morning Snow Lovers! Does anyone know or can you tell how to find the elevation of Salem? Thanks!
haha Nurse…we’re more partial to the Irish ourselves. I had waited to get one for many years, but when the derecho claimed my outdoor thermometer transmitter (it blew off the house and dropped 20 feet into gravel, thus killing it after having been in use for 6 years at 3 different houses), I decided that it was a good time to not only replace it, but take a step up.
John From Salem, Mr Griggs turned me onto using Google Earth to find my elevation. Very easy to use.
Go to wunderground.com and pull up any city. It has the elevation of 1150 for Salem.
John, the elevation at Roanoke College Admin Building is 1,100 feet.
Quags likes the 12Z GFS! Still good to go.
I adjusted my snow total predictions down slightly to compensate for the wet ground & warmer air temps down low east of the Blue Ridge. It’s still raining here in Goochland. Good news is temp is down to 40.
QWC should be working now. If you have problems with my site, please let me know. Thanks
Time to enjoy the snow! Should start to see it after 2-4 PM. The storm is getting cranked up now. Some serious banding developing in GA & SC moving this way.
KM: I know,yore busy with SWVA today but do you think we can get the precip to jog a bit north into DC? Maybe 2-3″? It’s looking less and less likely… Thx.
Oooppsss…Forgot to paste Allan Huffman’s latest 12Z GFS Clown map…
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfssnowdepth018.gif
You’re not yore, sorry.
Nurse snow, it just depends on how serious you are about the weather. This is the station[PWS] I have and can’t find fault to it. Also reasonable. I got a free year of no ads for wunderground[10 buck deal] but don’t know whether they have that deal now or not. I ordered thru the company. See link below.
http://www.ambientweather.com/amws20902kit.html
Penn Forest. 1,260 ft.
11:00 – 37.0
12:00 – 36.1 It’s been holding there for over a half hour.
Freezing rain here. Trees and fences have ice on them.
Wasn’t expecting that.
Trevor here reporting heavy rain in Blacksburg and the temperature have dropped dramatically. It’s going to get ugly when the snow hits.
Please be safe driving this afternoon and let hope VDOT learned their lesson the last time we had The Big ‘un.
I’m in DC: There’s some mighty dry air over you. Kathryn Prociv tweeted a sounding this morning showing -30 dew points maybe a mile or two up over Dulles International. I’m thinking your chances of snow aren’t too good this time around.
John –
My location next to Exit 137 is 1082 feet.
Re: Comment by John From Salem — January 17, 2013 @ 11:24 am
John – check out the link below. You can enter any address and get its elevation.
http://veloroutes.org/elevation/
John,
You can find the elevation of any where in Salem here (or anywhere else for that matter):
http://www.topoquest.com/map-detail.php?usgs_cell_id=39424
Just click on a subdivision or landmark near you.
Just had a moment of ice here in Glenvar.
Down to 36 here downtown. Only a matter of time now..
Radar is now showing snow near Blacksburg, and the automated station there was “reporting” snow — but appears to be a false report, as I ‘m quite sure this blog would be flooded with snow reports from NRVers.
Nevertheless, I will posting soon, as we’re entering an interesting phase of this storm soon.
I’m in Salem right by the river and I think I’m probably one of the lowest elevations in the city… 980 feet.
Yeah, Kevin…I’m right across the street from the airport and it’s just rain as far as I can see…
NWS just upped our forecast to 6-12 inches.
Currently in West Salem we are getting rain mixed with ice pellets!
Nothing in Pulaski @12:45. Dry slot right now.
No snow here yet in my part of the NRV, eagerly awaiting it, but it feels much cooler and the rain is very heavy now. The ground is absolutely saturated. I’m watching the creeping blue snow line on the radar. Looks like it’s snowing in Bluefield, don’t know if it’s reaching the ground though.
SPC has us in a MD for heavy snow:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0041.html
It’s been sleeting here in New Castle for about a half-hour.
MC, nice and easy elevation link (comment #103)
Kevin, do you think the NWS changeover prediction of around 4:00 for the Noke will verify or will it be sooner. Sooner = more snow
We began to get sleet about half an hour ago, now it has turned to big, wet snowflakes. Birds at the feeder seem frantic.
Where can I find my home’s elevation?
Just started getting sleet here in Pearisburg….12:54.
Freezing rain here @2850 elev in Floyd County. Ice forming in trees. I hope it turns to snow before we have another major ice event. We were without power for three days after Christmas.
The pot ain’t right yet. It will probably get right in a couple more hours and when you see the first flakes mix in, you’ll have about an hour to get where your going or coming from. If it comes down as heavy as they say, it will stick to any and everything.
Penn Forest. 1,260 ft.
12:00 – 36.1
1:00 – 35.1
That’s a pretty linear, tick-tock slope from the looks of it.
Should I stain my deck before the snow starts?
Ugly day here in Hokieburg…persistent rain with the green radar blob all over us. NWS site has ‘light snow’ snow listed as current conditions but I was just out in it and no snow that I could see. Temp is 36. Puddles everywhere. Storm drain ponds are filling up and the DuckPond looks swollen – Stroubles Creek has rushing mini-rapids.
Freezing rain hitting our deck now in Blacksburg, at 35 degrees.
Come on, snow! ;>)
Brutal rain out here in B-burg. Normally hardy goats are huddled in the barn. Still holding 36 just east of town, butwas just in town temp seems to be dropping steadily enough that changeover should come pretty smooth. How bad is flooding out there? That seems like a good now story.
Just posted new blog entry for the afternoon. Link to SPC mesoscale discussion included.
Up on Jeters Chapel, near vinton/ stewartsville, changing over to a rainish/slushy/sleet…ever so slightly! It looks like its about to bust loose!!
Some sleet mixed in with rain here in Bonsack.
Just rain in Radford right now.
Started seeing frozen stuff mixed in with the rain here in Salem by the duck pond at around 1:00 pm. Elevation here is just over 1000 ft, if I remember correctly.
Ground water table (in Glasgow) has finally started up. You can click a few times on this page and read the data for your area.
38 when I got home for lunch 37 when I left to go back to work. Heavy Rain and cold seems like it’s a matter of time before the switch and it seems soon.
Rain with sleet and pccasional flake mixing on @Bonsack
I can see snow from where I’m sitting….Unfortunately its just video from the VDOT webcam in Clifton Forge….It appears that Lexington is still rain, but at least it’s getting closer.
I’m not holding out much hope our rain will changeover but we’ll see what happens. Can’t believe they closed schools around here.
Rain and sleet mix in downtown Salem right now. My car temp read 35 degrees, but I always take my car’s reading with a grain of salt.
a little frozen mixing in with the rain in blacksburg.won’t be long. I’d say things will change over a little earlier than expected. hope that means more snow!!! come on baby!
My snow-predicting cat has not been at all active with this storm. I believe that the duration and amounts of rain have fouled up her wintry weather mechanisms.
I don’t know what makes some animals respond to certain weather conditions in unusual ways but KittyGirl does not “predict”
rain so a changeover event might not affect her. I do know that she was out front of the December event by more than 12 hours and our ground became white with sleet from that storm. I wanted to post this as some people were interested in last night’s discussions. C’mon Snow!!
sleet rain mix in C’burg
I forgot the water table URL
http://waterdata.usgs.gov/va/nwis/uv/?site_no=373758079271601&PARAmeter_cd=72019,72020
33 and hard rain here.
At my location 5 miles west of Lexington we now have all snow. Air temp is 34. Leaves on the forest floor are white with it, but pavement is still melting as soon as it falls.
I see the Man of the House (MOTH) took over for me this morning. It is raw out there. Still raining pretty steadily and temps are now down to 33 and have been holding for quite awhile. No ice here, WillisRob and IV John. Glad to hear that some of the schools went ahead and cut the day short and are sending the students home early.
I will post when I see the switch over to snow.
Sleeting pretty heavy in Cloverdale between Hollins and the truckstop.
Sleet and rain in the ‘burg. We have a ton of water around too. I hate to see that freeze.
Rain changing to snow near Newport. (2700 ft) Iceing on trees.
Sleet and rain just east of Blacksburg. 1,900 ft
1:52 pm ice pellets bouncing off the bird feeders in my Christiansburg backyard. Thermometer says 35 and it is raining quite heavily.
Heavy snow now in Newport.
Snowing big wet flakes here in Narrows! Yippee! It was sleeting for an hour or so prior to this and we got some light accumulation from that on roofs and cars. The snow has covered the road quickly. Be careful out there!
Driving from Downtown to Hollins it was just sleeting on 581. Now it is just starting to have a mix of snow too.
Roofs and desk white already!
Sleet and snow coming down in Daleville now.
Started sleeting heavily about 20-30 minutes ago and there already is about quarter inch of accumulation. Ice accumulation on elevated surfaces is also about quarter inch. A very mixed precipitation event out here – rain, freezing rain, sleet with the snow yet to follow. Heading into Willis to get more gas for the generators. I worry that the heavy wet snow on top of ice accumulation will bring on power outages. Ground is so saturated that I am having trouble pushing the wheelbarrow from the woodshed to the basement.
Big white flakes coming down in Troutville!
Heavy, wet snow in NW B’burg…ground rapidly turning white!!!!!
Greene County has gone from a Winter Storm Warning to a Winter Weather Advisory. The mets are shooting for 2-5 now. I think we’ll be lucky to see an inch of slush on the grass.
The BK has been put on full alert.
Heavy snow near truck stop in Troutville.
Indian boy John where are you dude????????????????????????
Sneeting here in Elliston. Dropped 4 degrees in one and a half hours. Ground is turning white.
And now it’s just plain old snow…
Snowing big flakes here at Carilion Clinic. Another first for this southern boy, wake up at 47 and rain, and end the day with snow. I never saw that in SC.
Heavy snow, with small flakes. I’m close to an inch.
31 degrees.
Finally started snowing here about a half hour ago. Big wet flakes at the beginning but now heavy small to medium flakes. Already have an inch and half. Winds have calmed down, temps still hovering at the freezing point. Hope the wind doesn’t get gusty with all the ice on the trees.
Chris (comment #158),
If I understand your question correctly, I am in Indian Valley area – the corner of Floyd County that borders Carroll and Pulaski Counties. My elevation is 2808 (average of several elevation info resources.)
Chris, Indian Valley John is probably in Indian Valley (Floyd County)
Just making the change over to snow at Goodview, SML near Diamond Hill Church. Come -n SNOW!
We have a solid 2 inches of white stuff in Bent Mountain @ 3000 ft. It started as heavy sleet, then changed to snow.
It seemed the snow dropped all 2 inches from 3-4:00.
The roads are not good. Be careful out there.
It started snowing in Charlottesville around 3:45 and it’s snowing pretty heavily now but it’s having a tough time sticking on the pavement. I expect it will if this rate keeps up.
Lights flickering in Blacksburg, Snow is heavy in everything
Cleared 6 inches off the snowboard already so NWS was on the mark with the forecast of 5-7 inches during the day for my neck of the woods. Still coming down heavy.
We usually get a little temperature bounce after a dynamic cooling/wet snow event. The cold air was created by the storm system. Later tonight we should get colder with a little bit of modified Arctic air.
Not sure about the extra echoes. They are light, though. May be some heavier snow continuing just west of I-77.