Don't Miss

Enter your photo in the Ultimate Fan contest by midnight to win a suite night at a Salem Red Sox game and a chance at a trip to Fenway Park.

Winter weather advisory issued Roanoke/New River valleys for snow Friday

The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has posted a winter weather advisory for the Roanoke Valley and Blue Ridge westward for 1-4 inches of snow Friday afternoon.

Summaries bold-faced below.

Tenths and hundredths of an inch of rain don’t matter that much to most people. The puddles are a little bigger with 0.4 inch of rain versus 0.1 inch of rain, but there’s not a hugely different impact on travel and life in general. It’s very different for snow. That difference in moisture is, on average, the difference in a 4-inch snow and a 1-inch snow, and travel impacts seem to multiply by the inch.  The differences in various forecast wwa0124bmodels are minute, whittled down to a tenth or two of liquid, even a few hundredths. But that difference holds the key as to whether Friday’s snow will be a barely-snow-at-all or something a little more memorable. Winter weather advisories have been posted from the Roanoke Valley and Blue Ridge westward, where snowfall amounts of generally 1-4 inches are expected. The 4-inch amounts more likely to come in parts of the New River Valley and perhaps even more widespread to the west. To the east of Roanoke, snow will likely fall, but current projections are for an inch or less.  The reason for the west to east diminishing of snow amounts has less to do with temperature differences (everywhere will be below freezing) or specific elevations (though that will play some factor, as it usually does) as it does with the possibility that the moisture with the system will dry up some as it advances eastward. We’ve talked all week about the very dry air in place with the Arctic air mass, and that will tend to eat away at the snow and reduce its intensity as it moves eastward, especially east of the Blue Ridge. That is, unless upper-level lift is strong enough to overcome the drying effects, which the North American Model has been the most bullish in showing happening on many of its recent runs. The difference in getting a tenth of an inch of moisture and maybe locally a third to a half an inch could be magnified further by getting somewhat better than 10:1 snow-liquid ratios – in other words, when snow forms in colder air, it often develops more intricate crystals that put more air in snow as it collects on the surface, boosting snow totals. So it’s possible at times we could get more than the typical inch of snow per tenth of an inch of moisture. That’s just a further complication to a convoluted forecast.

Bottom line: Expect about 1-2 inches in the Roanoke area, 2-3 inches in the New River valley and westward with some higher amounts, and about an inch east of Roanoke on Friday. Be prepared for the possibility of getting 3-6 inches if the system is a little more robust than most models depict or some locally heavier bands develop. Don’t be shocked if your specific location sees little, if the system dries up more than most modeling shows, or some “snow holes” develop.

Timing should see snow move into counties west of I-77 before 10 a.m and then spread eastward through the New River and Roanoke valleys by early afternoon. The heaviest snow should be confined to 3 hours or so, with flurries and/or freezing drizzle trailing off intermittently into the evening. The farther south you are, the better your chance of seeing some sleet mixing in, especially toward the end of the snow.

Impact on power lines is expected to be VERY LOW due to the likely powdery nature of the snow, but roads will deteriorate rapidly with even several minutes of sustained snowfall, as recent cold weather will mean snow will start sticking quickly on untreated road surfaces.

We may hit 60 degrees by the middle of next week, so if snow isn’t your thing, there’s a break not far away. It won’t last long, though.

Join the conversation [ADD A COMMENT]

103 COMMENTS

  1. Jacob in PGH |

    WWA for Pittsburgh, too, somewhat surprisingly – the forecast up to now was 1-2 inches, which doesn’t usually warrant much here. WWA is for 4-6, which makes me wonder if they’re hedging bets (I think 6 is WSW criteria for us). Guess we’ll see – still waiting on the latest discussion.

  2. Travis |

    Will be interesting tomorow…

  3. Mr. Winter @ 1149ft Rocky Mount, VA |

    Kevin do you think the winter weather advisory will be expanded into Franklin County? If so, what are your thoughts on accumulations for Rocky Mount?

  4. Brandon R. |

    The key questions for tomorrow’s storm:

    1- How much moisture makes it over the mountains?
    2- How much of that moisture is virga?
    3- What are the snow ratios?

    I’m still leaning towards the dry side of things. C-1″ Roanoke, 2-4″ west of Roanoke, flurries to the east.

  5. Kevin Myatt |

    Franklin County’s always a “tweener” county in this kind of situation. Northern sections near Boones Mill often fall more into Roanoke Valley type forecasts. Western fringe is more like Floyd County with tall mountain ridges. East is Smith Mountain Lake and more liked Piedmont counties to east. South tends to swing toward Southside, And then there’s the middle around Rocky Mount that can go any of these directions. I would say Rocky Mount is 1ish maybe 2 for best guess right now.

    I would not be surprised to see the advisory take in a few counties. Keep in mind that 2 inches is the snow advisory threshhold locally, so it includes any county with at least some chance in current forecasts of getting 2 inches.

    Winter weather advisories may also be expanded if the post-snow freezing drizzle threat is deemed significant. Looks pretty minor for now.

  6. Kevin Myatt |

    Also, you may find it odd that North Carolina counties have winter weather advisories all the way across while in Virginia they stop at the Blue Ridge. Two reasons for that: (1) more mixed precipitation down there, with smaller ice amounts triggering advisories than snow and (2) lower criteria for snow to trigger an advisory.

  7. Mr. Winter @ 1149ft Rocky Mount, VA |

    Thank you Kevin that was very informative. I hope things change for the better and we get more moisture with this storm to produce more snow.

  8. Kevin Myatt |

    NWS-Blacksburg, per discussion, sees potential for mesoscale banding (HAVES) and snow holes (HAVE NOTS).

    THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR HAVES AND HAVE NOT WHERE SOME SEE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW…LESS THAN AN INCH. IF MESOSCALE BANDING SETS UP WITH SOME FORCING ALOFT…THERE COULD SOME 4+ INCH AMOUNTS…BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS SET UP AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

  9. Kevin Myatt |

    Correcting 1 point above — threshhold for winter weather advisory is 3 inches west of Roanoke — 2 inches Roanoke and east. Similarly, winter storm warning criteria is 5 inches west of Roanoke, 4 inches Roanoke and east.

  10. Anna C. |

    I have a feeling that Buena Vista is going to be a HAVE NOT area. BOOOO!

  11. Jared French of Greene county |

    So DT says watch out for February 4th! What models are showing this storm?

  12. Kevin Myatt |

    If you’re watching radar tonight, keep an eye on Arkansas and closest parts of nearby states — that’s where the initial surge of moisture that will become our storm system is expected to develop into rain/freezing rain. It may be a few hours yet, closer to midnight.

  13. Matt Blacksburg |

    Kevin, great summary. You really know how to bridge the gap between the technical expert info and the two line summary generally broadcast to the public.

  14. Doug G, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft |

    Just started looking at the blog a few minutes ago, and am delighted to see that Jumpin’ Jared Flash finally got some snow. Have not read through all of the comments on the previous thread, but how much did you get, Snow Hound?? Whatever …. CONGRATULATIONS!! yay! I hope that it was at least 2 inches. One reason maybe why you got some? Your comment at 6:20 AM yesterday, JJF. Possible other reason? A fellow blogger, one who really doesn’t like snow at all, stated that he was rooting for you. I cannot find the durn comment, but I remember seeing it. I think that the guy was a letter carrier.

  15. joe |

    looks like about 6am Eastern cntrl Tenn could have it begin..
    Nashville has 7 hours of freezing rain in the fcst ..early to mid morning
    watch the area btwn Nashville and Tri Cities.
    Bristol has frzg rain in fcst at around 9 or 10 am according to NWS/FAA..starts in Nashville arnd 4am.
    Satellite not showing much development yet..higher clouds over central Mo.

  16. Doppler Carol (Floyd County Doppler 2546 ft) |

    What a gorgeous red sunset! “Red sky at night; sailor’s delight.” The temps are really plummeting up here – down to 13 already. At least those pesky winds have stopped blowing. Throw another log on the fire.

  17. Brandon R. |

    Jared: I will do no such thing. There is no way I’m going to buy into any model hype more than week out.

  18. Kevin Myatt |

    Jared: Been seeing on Euro what DT is talking about 8-10 days out. Leaving it there for now. Very volatile weather pattern ahead. Short sleeves and gloves, alternately, potential for wet storms of various temperatures. Enjoy the ride.

  19. Doug G, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft |

    Brandon, saw your hilarious comment late in the previous thread about seeing the salt trucks out, a sure sign that tomorrow’s snowstorm will be a very light one around here. GREAT COMMENT. Also saw skeptical comments by gdad and others. Count me in with “youse guys.” Once in a while we get an over-performing or simply as-most-models-predict performing snowstorm that comes in from the west or WNW, but quite a few times they underperform. The air is incredibly dry here. Some local town (Buena Vista?) had a dewpoint of -2 just an hour or so ago. I think that virga will be the number one hindrance to getting even 2 full inches in the ROA valley. The “guy who should retire” posted a map at 6:20 showing Roanoke getting 1 inch, with Blacksburg getting 2.

  20. Doug G, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft |

    Doppler Carol, re throwing another log on the fire. How about throwing an entire bunch of small trees on the fire??

  21. scott |

    Just a little side note…… I think I remember somebody asking the question about seeing robins coming back into the area! Well driving through the Salem area, thomspon memorial to be exact, i saw several large groups of robins feeding around some trees off the road! I have a feeling that is a sign of what’s left of this stupid winter! I’m starting to become a “snow-hater” …atleast I won’t be as disappointed as I usually am during winter storms! I’m callin for a less than an inch bust in my neck of the woods in Bedford! I think I’m done with winter and ready for spring…lol..yes its january but like Jared, very very disappointing! Heck..he now has more snow than I have seen! Soo…what’s the snow hater group called…I think I’m gonna join up if u have any openings! I’d atleast like a brochure please!! :)

  22. Kevin Myatt |

    About robins … as I understand it, there are local groups of robins almost everywhere now that maintain their normal activity throughout winter … so it’s not much of a sign of anything.

    About spring … gonna feel like that on Wednesday, but it’s just a tease. Cold again just a few days later. Snow — who knows?

  23. kevin from turkeycock mtn |

    Think a little snow will make it this way anyone or just ice?

  24. Kevin Myatt |

    I think you get a little snow down there but more chance of seeing sleet than farther north, kev. You roll the dice with everyone else on being in a “snow hole” or underneath a “mesoscale band” … or the whole thing drying up.

  25. kevin from turkeycock mtn |

    Thanx kev…thats kinda what i figured its usually a little iffy here during these type storms.

  26. wdbrand |

    It will take another “93″ super storm or a “96″ butt buster to please the snow lovers. And if one comes, I don’t want to hear about eggs, milk, bread. Suck it up, yall begged for it. The problem is, very few remember it or had to work in it and how long it lasted. Be careful what you wish for.

  27. wdbrand |

    Highest temp today was around 2:30 AM at 35.6*. Then the bottom dropped out. Now 19* and going down. 1″ tomorrow will be much worse than any 6″ snow we’ve had in awhile. Make plans early.

  28. joe |

    I made a post on Robins about a week ago,,
    and yes…its a sign of nothing..except they are hungry like all birds now.

  29. Clarkdocvet,east of Galax, 2650 ft. |

    Already 15* here in Woodlawn,Brrrrrr…every flake is gonna stick at these temps (provided we get any flakes!)

  30. scott |

    Wd…. lol..I mnot beggin for a 93 or 96 storm..lol! I would love several 2-4 events…. heck this year id settle for one! I’ve never really heard of a “snow hole” until this year..but it seems like I am right smack in the middle of one this year!… I’m a huge hunter and actually watch a gobbler strutting and fighting yesterday for one of the biggest group of hens I’ve ever seen! I am watchin my dofodils comin up….and dogwood trees budidng…I know its cold now… but its just odd now for me.. I’m ready for spring turkey hunting rather than watchin and waitin for these “no snow” events….. I mean heck, if we get an inch or two tomorrow…I’ll be like a little 30 year old kid! But as dry as it is out here… and the bedford supposive snow hole so far.. I’m havin a hard time gettin excited about this one.. or really the rest of them for that matter!! Hey… if it snows great! If it doesn’t… really..no surprise… and if it gets warm… I hope it stays! Lol! I’m gonna go through this “storm” with my blood pressure down this time and take a “eh, good deal…or eh… oh well..” approach rather than blame everyone and their mom..and be aggrivated the whole event!

  31. wdbrand |

    At these temps, 6″ would be a major problem due to drifting.

  32. joe |

    Only action I see now on radar loop is some sleet
    signatures from NW Missouri..sliding SE…
    Im not familiar with any reporting stations
    along the Iowa border..its north of KC,.,,,]Dont know if its virga or not..just started showing up about an hour ago.

  33. Kevin Myatt |

    Personally, I think small weather events are underrated. A 10-minute snow squall, a summer shower that drops a quick quarter-inch of rain to freshen up a hot dry day, the rays of sun that peek out on a cloudy day for 15 minutes.

    I’m interested to see what happens tomorrow, whatever it is.

  34. Michael Hoback |

    Came in from work and fed the cows, horses and goat. Split wood for the cookstove and got the 2 fires going good. Wife fed the chickens and gathered the eggs. Now we are ready for snow/ice. Hopefully we stay all snow (3-5″) and no ice for power complications. Still have to work but may get home early since if it comes it will stick. This may not be the big un but at least us snow lovers are having some fun.

  35. Brandon R. |

    Already down to 22 here in downtown Roanoke.

  36. joe |

    Michael..
    Id bet u 2 dozen brown eggs u wont get any freezing
    rain out of this….way too cold. 15ish in am for Magic Town..
    sleet or snow…but i cant see how any of this would be
    liquid at the surface to refreeze..I think you are ok on that front.

  37. Doug G, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft |

    Yes, Hobackster, your area WILL get some snow, and probably AT LEAST 3 inches. Everybody’s map that I’ve seen recently , whether here or on TV, is unanimous about that. Possibly 5 or 6. If DT is right, you may get even more than 6.

  38. Matt |

    All my friends keep asking me what’s going to happen tomorrow, since I’m on this awesome forum. Franklin County schools are closed (silly in my opinion-since timing is late afternoon). Maybe an hour or two early dismissal would be better (wouldn’t lose a day). Everything taken as Occams Razor, I would guess one inch here in Franklin County, definitely not enough to cover the grass. KM was right in his description of my county. We are like Floyd to the west, downsloping and drying in Rocky Mount, and like Piedmont at Smith Mountain Lake and to the southeast.

  39. scottpinriner |

    I’m with you KM. I love those days where you get rain, hail, sunshine, then snow flurries! so fun!

  40. Doug G, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft |

    I was a one-year postal veteran when the Blizzard of ’96 hit. I was working in a DC suburb called Falls Church, VA. They told us to stay home on that Monday, and all I did Tuesday with several other low seniority letter carriers was try to dig out postal trucks and the parking lot. My entire uniform allowance had gone for shirts, pants, and shoes then, and I had not reached my first anniversary, so had no postal boots. That night I went to a store (sort of like Gander Mntn) and bought a pair of insulated boots. But when I got home my feet were half frozen. Did much better the rest of that week. The first day after the storm that I delivered mail was Saturday.

  41. Shanon "Nurse Snow" |

    My kids are getting all crazy tonight, that is a sure sign that something is going to happen. I just hope that the local school systems make good choices on school tomorrow since we KNOW that what comes down will stick quickly to the roads. Of course, most of you know I’m banking on a SNOW DAY!!!

  42. Blacksburg Mike |

    Charlottesville area ended up with amounts near 4″ this morning, when only 1″ or less was forecasted. That goes to show how very little moisture can add up to decent snow totals in this beautiful arctic air. With that said, still see no reason NRV and west does not end up with 6″ out of this system. It will only take about .35″ of liquid to equal 6″ of snow in this setup. Ratio’s will be WAY higher than the normal 10:1 and could approach 20:1.

  43. Doug G, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft |

    No “Snow day” for you and the rest of Roanoke City (and probably not one for Roanoke County, either), Nurse Snow. But early dismissal is a very good bet.

  44. Doug G, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft |

    I saw Sean Sublette on “13″ at 6:21, right after watching 7. He called for 1-3 inches for Roanoke and points west of the Blue Ridge, but his viewing area does not cover all of the NRV. Montgomery, Floyd and maybe Pulaski, but I am pretty sure that it did not include Wythe, Bland, nor even Carroll.

  45. Shanon "Nurse Snow" |

    Now Doug, it COULD happen LOL. I don’t like early dismissals near as much personally. I like to sleep in. Did I mention I’m not a morning person? I’m not a night owl either. A job working 10-2 would be perfect LOL

  46. Indian Valley John |

    Wd, this woodchucker is chucking constantly, been a challenge to keep our old farmhouse warm enough. The woodshed is emptying out but I think we’ll have enough for the season, I split and stacked about 12 cords of wood for this season. Pine for the “heat battery” in the main room and hardwood for the ducted basement furnace that heats the two floors above.
    Doppler Carol, caught the same spectacular sunset.
    Jared, Congrats on getting some snow and I’m rooting for more snow to head your way tomorrow.
    Noticed NWS forecast for my area has chance of snow knocked down to 90% and for the first time, has sleet potential included at the beginning with the dreaded wintry mix for tomorrow night.
    11 degrees here already and gusty. Low was only 24 this morning, much warmer than NWS forecast. Temp went up early evening and hovered slightly above the freezing mark up until at least midnight.
    Gotta go chuck more wood onto the fire.

  47. Kevin Myatt |

    There is one very good reason NRV and west may not end up with 6 inches out of this system … there may not be 0.35 inch of liquid or more to squeeze out. There is NO precipitation over Arkansas now even though the wettest model, the NAM, showed it starting there by now. That’s not to say it won’t get going in the next several hours — start times are very fluid with systems like this, and precipitation will spread rapidly once it starts.

    For what it’s worth, HPC now gives no one in Virginia or West Virginia more than a 20 percent chance of 6+ — a tiny strip west of Bluefield — and zero chance east of a little piece of Bland/Giles County right on the WVa line.

    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/prb_24hsnow_ge06_2013012500f024.gif

    So your 6+ call is going against the experts big time, Mike, but of course it’s weather, we won’t know till it happens.

  48. Salem snow lover |

    Been a while since I’ve been on here. Kevin’s 7:59 comment inspired me. At my school, we consider Kevin’s comments sacred

  49. Kevin Myatt |

    New NAM actually gives you a shot at it, Blacksburg Mike — gets you in 0.25-0.50 zone (actually even nudges Roanoke)

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&cycle=00&image=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_030_precip_ptot.gif

    From my vantage point — I can see isolated 6+, maybe, but not widespread 6+. I would be stunned if there were multiple counties covered by 6+ inches. I would not be stunned if there are some reports here and there of 6+ — even some outside the projected heaviest snow area.

  50. Doug G, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft |

    Kevin, what about the Indian Valley man’s comment that for the first time there is mention of sleet in his forecast. Is an advection of warmer air rearing its ugly hea ….. er, NOSE??!
    Great to read your comments, IV John. Take great care of your pooches. And cherish them.

  51. Brandon R. |

    The dewpoint in Roanoke is 4. This may end up being remembered as The Great Virga Storm of 2013.

  52. Jason in Grayson |

    That, to me, looks like a little to much moisture for this dry and cold air to get through. But what do I know.

  53. Matt |

    Why in the world are the models still not in consensus? The storm is inland, and all the upper air sampling has occurred. Looks like we would pretty much know what’s going on since we’re 12-16 hours from onset here in SWVA. Temperature profile can’t really be an issue, so I guess it’s only QPF and start time/ duration that are in question.

  54. Shanon "Nurse Snow" |

    That run of the NAM seems to push a little more moisture into Roanoke too, doesn’t it Kevin?

  55. Kevin Myatt |

    If the mid layers moisten up, Brandon, that 4 dew point at the surface won’t do much other than make it real cold when it’s snowing. Looking at Blacksburg balloon sounding tonight, it’s pretty dry aloft, but not anything that can’t be overcome with halfway decent moisture. But will the moisture be “halfway decent”?

  56. shana in garden city & elliston |

    Gonna have to agree with Salem snow lover’s assessment of your 7:59 comment, t Kevin. Mother Nature likes to give us meaning in momentous moments, and the most momentary are often the ones with the deepest impact.

  57. Ben G. |

    20.1* on my PWS already and it’s dropping fairly fast. I went and checked various surface temperatures a few minutes ago just for the heck of seeing how cold they were and my sidewalks were around 25*. Grassy areas were 18-20* and the road out in front of my house was in the mid 20′s.

  58. Doppler Carol (Floyd County Doppler 2546 ft) |

    It is down to 8 so far and no wind; humidity is at 53%. The coyotes were howling across the road just a bit ago. I have been watching national radar and agree- no moisture yet in Arkansas. Maybe this one will be a bust for us?

  59. Salem snow lover |

    Jason- I’m with you! Have property in Rugby! Love Grayson county!

  60. Todd in SW City |

    So Kevin……… I’m looking at the NWS National Mosaic radar…..I’m not seeing a whole lot of anything develop near Arkansas. Where should my untrained eyes be focussed?

  61. Kevin Myatt |

    You’re looking in the right spot, Todd. Local forecasts there are saying “after midnight” on precipitation development, which will be light rain and freezing rain. NAM had it breaking out a bit earlier. No big deal yet. If you don’t see much at dawn tomorrow, building into Kentucky and Tennessee, it’ll be a different story.

  62. Jason in Grayson |

    I have property in Grayson County too… Call it home. I’m here, whats not to love. Of course I’m kidding. Thanks for agreeing. So Kev. You’ve seen this winter time precip come into our air before. You really think its gotta shot. Somebody somewhere is goin to be disappointed I think.

  63. Kevin Myatt |

    Definitely has a shot. Will look like more of a shot if there are decent echoes around Nashville, Tenn., and Bowling Green, Ky., tomorrow morning.

  64. Drew |

    Forecast to get an inch here and Henry County Public Schools have already cancelled school. SMH

  65. Jason in Grayson |

    OK my friend. I’ll take your word for it. Guess we’ll see how she looks in the morning. Talk to yall in then.

  66. Matt |

    Was just looking at the IR, water vapor, and associated satellites on NWS, and it seems all the energy is coming from our northwest and from Indiana/Illinois. Should we expect development of a low over Arkansas/Tennessee to deliver our precip from due west?

  67. Doug G, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft |

    hey, with all the excitement about the snowstorms past and future, I don’t think anyone posted this week’s Drought Monitor from unl.edu (University of Nebraska at Lincoln?). So here is the link. Looking a heck of a lot better here in the Old Dominion, isn’t it? It claims that most of Roanoke County is still in the D0 level (yellow on the map).
    The link to what the drought monitor looks like for only Virginia. http://www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DM_state.htm?VA,SE

  68. Doug G, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft |

    Drew, 3 comments about your 10:10 comment. 1. Thanks for posting it. 2. What does SMH stand for? 3. This is why I had culture shock when I first moved to Maryland (Laurel) from living nearly all my winters previously in Massachusetts. 1 inch of snow and school is cancelled? HUH?? Is there a worry about icing?

  69. Blacksburg Mike |

    It’s too cold. It’s too dry. Come on folks, this is as good as it gets. We are primed and ready for snow. It’s cold enough to be snow, when it falls it will stick INSTANTLY, with no time waiting for it to start accumulating, and with the latest NAM showing up to .50″ liquid, my estimate of 6″ is looking to be conservative, again at 20:1, .50″ could be 10″ of snow. Enjoy this, please.

  70. KC in Bonsack |

    @doug SMH means “shaking my head” in text slang. Finally something I know enough about to reply ;)

  71. Clarkdocvet,east of Galax, 2650 ft. |

    Down to 11* here, and the air s still. Funny how this “storm” is less than 24hrs away,and we still don’t know exactly what is going to happen!! Kinda like the old days,when my dad would say “watch the smoke from the chimney” to see if there was a storm coming or not…it’s very dry out there,and with nothing happening yet west of here,I’m worried that there is not gonna be enough moisture to overcome the dry air…

  72. Johnny near KHLX |

    SMH = shaking my head

  73. Kevin Myatt |

    If Blacksburg gets 10 inches, I’ll mention you by name at the top of the blog entry and give you full credit.

  74. Clarkdocvet,east of Galax, 2650 ft. |

    FWIW,the NWS has decreased us from 1-3″ to less than an inch for tommorow…

  75. Drew |

    Shaking my head, Doug.

  76. Ryan |

    I realize the fact that there is only supposed to be an inch makes some of you SMH at school closings, but it is really the timing that’s causing it. This stuff is supposed to start somewhere around 12…you have to be able to get kids home on the busses AND give the bus drivers time to get home as well to truly avoid liability issues. Our county has some bus rides that last longer than an hour, so we would need to close school at 9 to make sure everyone’s safe in a perfect scenario. If it were starting earlier, you could do a 2 hour delay to see whether it came through or not. If it were going to start later, you could do like last week and simply release at 12. I’m surprised at the schools that are 2 hours late–that doesn’t seem to serve a purpose to me in this scenario. I THINK we will see the great majority of schools be closed in the morning, even though there’s a possibility that the storm will do diddly-pooh.

  77. Todd in SW City |

    BB Mike, your optimism is encouraging. Can you now talk to me about the economy? I hope your right….keep beating that drum brutha!

  78. Doug G, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft |

    Ryan, your points are good. And maybe it is because the NW section of Henry County does have some steep roads. But if it were not for that, and assuming that icing will not be an issue (which indeed it may be that far south), one inch of snow should not be closing schools.

  79. Doug G, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft |

    Kevin, except for the top of this thread, I don’t think you have addressed the question of virga. Do you think it will be a very short-lived situation, if it happens at all? Talk to us, Weather Wizard.

  80. Todd in SW City |

    you’re not your

  81. Kevin Myatt |

    There will be a period of virga, but if the layers moisten rapidly enough from the clouds down, that can be a surprisingly short period of time, even if dew points are extremely low at the surface. Snow will reach higher elevations first and lower elevations last.

    Also, you mentioned the warm nose — I’m seeing that flirting with the Va-NC border in most model runs, not getting very far north of there.

  82. Kevin Myatt |

    I take that back — 0Z GFS brings boundary of 0C at 850 mb to Roanoke area by early Friday evening, well after bulk of precip has pushed east. Galax/Wytheville get into a little earlier than that. That may be where some of the sleet mix forecasts in counties to the south are coming from.

  83. BrandonNrV |

    National weather service has dropped us from 1-3 to under an inch of snow in Radford.

  84. Doug G, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft |

    Thank you for your thoughts, KM. And please check your e-mail.

  85. Ryan |

    I agree, Doug. Blame our quick to sue society. When i was in school in the 90s in Bland County they still put chains on the busses and we went in 1-2 inches. Now you cant di that because you are admitting that roads are unsafe but still have the kids out anyway. Ridiculous! Hopefully it will at least get me, nurse snow, and the others a day off tomorrow ;-)

  86. Kevin Myatt |

    I’m clicking all over Pulaski and Montgomery counties and still seeing 1-2 and 1-3 in NWS forecasts. Am I missing the right spot?

  87. Mike from Marshall |

    Very cold and windy again today.Now down to 13 only calling for a dusting up here tomorrow evening.But looking at the radar tonight i`ll predict 3 snowflakes for tommorow.LoL!Only 2 more days of winter then the warmup begins.Enjoy it folks while we can.Still a no snow winter up here!A whole 4 inches so far.

  88. HokieTrax (West Hokieburg 2091') |

    I’ve been AWOL from the blog because my VT students are back and we’ve had programs three nights in a row so this Hokie’s been too tired to post. I noticed that they have brined all the campus roads tonight. And it’s COLD. I’m pretty durable in cold but the past two days it has settled in my bones.

    RE: school closings – when I saw what the back roads looked like in Montgomery County with snow, I understood why schools would close for days after a fairly good snow. Some people in town just didn’t understand why when all the town roads were cleared but you get a mile out of Hokieburg proper, the roads can get pretty rural with sections that never see the sun, etc. I remember 1994 being the worst year here with all the ice storms – 17 snow days which is over 3 weeks of school. There were built-in days to the schedule, and the school day is longer here so they made up days that way, but the school year had to be extended that year to mid-June and then still needed some special dispensation from the state board of education for the rest.

  89. Jared French of Greene county |

    Radar looks pretty impressive over the upper Midwest! Could this be a good sign for northern Virginia since we were supposedly in a dry hole? Don’t really see much out of the southern system. Charlottesville station is saying a couple inches possible, is that still the case?

  90. Indian Valley John |

    Doug, don’t feel bad. I gotta google text slang all the time. Not much of a texter as my arthritic fingers discourage it.

    Jason
    From Grayson
    Like a poet
    Yet does he know it?

    Okay folks, gotta a couple different types of poems rolled into one but couldn’t quite get a Haiku into the mix.

    Close to a full moon and with all the snow cover, it is quite striking. I can see deep into the woods with the snow as a background and the moonlight reflecting off the snow. DAYUM, its too cold to enjoy it for long.

  91. BrandonNrV |

    City of Radford says around an 1 inch of accumulation, it had said 1-3 earlier. But the Winter Weather Advisory for the same county/area is for 2-4.

  92. Doug G, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft |

    Time out, HokieTrax. I agree with you completely about Montgomery County. Get off 460 (or even on 460 going up to the border with Giles County) and except perhaps for Peppers Ferry Road, nearly everything has got major league elevation changes. Whole different situation than what I am familiar with most of Henry County. The elevation change issue is what “helps” school employees and students get days off in Roanoke County when the city has school …. Bent Mountain and the very steep side streets off of US 221. Plus the area around SR 311 north of Salem.

  93. Doug G, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft |

    Cute, Indian Valley John!! But please don’t mention the “H” word. I hate haikus. Kevin is almost certain to post one now, and I may just reply with a limerick. If it gets past him.

  94. Indian Valley John |

    Kevin, if you type in Radford to get the forecast, it shows “around an inch” but if you click just outside on the inset map, it shows 1-2″ all around the Radford dot.

  95. Doug G, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft |

    “Retirement man” bumped ROA back up to 2 inches in his 10 PM forecast on MY19. Blacksburg was at 3. He was at 1 inch for ROA at 6 PM.

  96. Brandon R. |

    National radar still unimpressive. I’ve seen Albert clippers look better. Yeah, I know it’s early, but it’s not a good sign in my opinion.

  97. Brandon R. |

    Correction: Alberta clippers.

    Albert clippers.. go to bed Brandon..

  98. Kevin Myatt |

    Extremely unimpressive, Brandon. A few showers north of Memphis are all that are there. If I don’t see lots of green in central Ky and Tenn at sunrise I would say it’s not looking good for snow projections. But it can blow up fast.

  99. joe |

    Clarkdocvet…
    Your dad knew what he was talking about..
    Any smoke..whether it comes from a chimney or a campfire
    if it goes to a certain height and settles or turns toward
    the ground its a sign of a falling barometer.
    Its just one sign..but there is some truth to it..

  100. John Jackson |

    Very light snow falling in Roanoke’s Raleigh Court near Patrick Henry High. It’s starting to show on my driveway. Tiny flakes but it’s falling steadily.

Error submitting comment

Name is required

A valid email is required (test@test.com)

Comment is required

Add a comment

Your email address will not be published.
All fields are required to comment.

processing

About Weather Journal

Kevin Myatt is The Roanoke Times' principal weather geek. He writes the Weather Journal column and advises the newsroom on weather topics while also working on the copy desk. He helps lead college students on storm chases and has edited a book on hurricanes. {More about Kevin}

Kevin appears on WVTF radio's All Things Considered every Friday at 4:30 p.m. | Find a station.

Follow Kevin on Twitter @kevinmyattwx and use the hashtag #Swvawx to share your weather news.

RSS feedRSS feed | Column archive




Roanoke


New River

Recent Comments

  • Other John: Seems as though the thick cloud cover will limit things locally…and the NWS seems to agree. They...
  • Nick in the Ellett Valley, 1,575 ft: Kevin, make sure to stop in Denver on the storm trip. Hopefully the area of...
  • Matt from Rocky Mount 1000': Emptied 1.25 inches from my gauge this morning just east of Rocky Mount.
  • Shanon "Nurse Gardener": Great picture Tina B! We were scheduled to play a softball game last night at Penn Forest....
  • Other John: We picked up 0.69″ yesterday, which pushed us over 4″ for the month of May…and is the...


Categories

Archives