2 mild days ahead despite ‘cold’ front
We had a little sleet and snow at the start of rain around Southwest Virginia on Sunday night as moisture fell through some cold, dry air aloft, inducing evaporational cooling. It appears on radar that most of the night’s rain has already past, though some more showers may develop before a cold front arrives Monday. This is going to be one of those cold fronts that you’ll wonder why it’s called a “cold” front because its westerly winds, blowing over and down the Appalachian slopes, will actually help push temperatures near or above 60 in much of the region each of the next 2 days. The air behind it is more Pacific in origin rather than from the Arctic, so even nighttime lows won’t be all that cold, 30s mostly.
Forecast guidance is widely divergent on Wednesday’s storm system. I’m going to give it another day to see if it clears up a little more, considering that it varies from the low going well south of us and barely precipitating at all (Sunday’s European model) to taking a steep northward turn that would give us all rain (Sunday night’s North American Model). It remains a marginal situation for snow, with limited cold air, but we’ve seen plenty of these work out for at least some snow in our region lately. I think you may see some sort of weekend system rematerialize as a possibility, too, as some energy rounds the large central/eastern U.S. trough with a deeper supply of cold air.
In the meantime … here is the weekly exercise in futility called the snow meter.
*************
Snow meter
2/11-2/17
(O to 10 chance of 1 inch of snow during the time period)
Roanoke 6 snowflakes ******
Blacksburg 6 snowflakes ******
Outlook: Another week, another marginal winter weather setup. The track of a Wednesday storm system and the temperature structure of the atmosphere are very much in question three days beforehand, but generally suggest at least some snow will fall in Southwest Virginia at midweek. There may be another shot at sn
ow next weekend as well, though this is, of course, vague five or six days out. With perhaps two swings at the bat for potential snow, and a tendency this winter for marginal setups to come through with at least some accumulation, I’m going a little on the “probably” side for getting an inch of snow this week at both Roanoke and Blacksburg.
Looking back: My Blacksburg losing streak reaches four by the margin of two-tenths of an inch, as the National Weather Service office measured 0.8 inch total on Thursday night and early Friday.That fell short of the 1-inch threshold on a week I gave Blacksburg five flakes out of 10, so by my rules, I take a narrow loss for not getting an inch on a week I went five flakes or higher. As for Roanoke, there was no good reason to expect 3.5 inches of snow five hours beforehand on Thursday, let alone five days, so my three snowflakes out of 10 pick was a big upset loss (getting an inch or more on a week I picked below five flakes).
Current records: 7-3 for Roanoke, 5-5 for Blacksburg.
February 10, 2013 - 11:45 PM
RSS feed 
I am utterly surprised you are going 6 snowflakes this week. The Wednesday deal looks like a bust now from some sources and several including Quags has hinted that winter doesn’t look to good after the 15th. I hope you are correct though!
0Z GFS and the 12Z Euro Ensembles both have next weekend’s snow threat.
Remember, it only takes an inch, not a major snowstorm, not even a winter storm warning-sized event, not even a winter-weather advisory-sized event, for me to verify on the snow meter. Two one-half inch snows would do it. Three-tenths of an inch of sleety slush Wednesday night and seven-tenths of an inch with a weak disturbance next weekend could do it. Doesn’t mean it will happen (see Blacksburg this past week at 0.8), but it doesn’t take much.
Deb in Fairlawn. This is the best site I;ve used and simple.
http://veloroutes.org/elevation/
HPC this morning now has ALL of VA west of I-81 in slight risk of 4″+ snow for Wednesday; however, NWS forecast now suggest a nearly all rain event. What gives?
I see the GFS and the NAM both keep the snow up around Snowshoe and Elkins, WV for Wednesday. But, there’s always Saturday?
From 34º at 9:00 last night to 47º at 6:30 this morning, with gusty winds from the south.
Tim T, you live across from Canyon Road?
I’m thinking the mid-week system has a mix-to-rain setup with maybe only the higher elevations seeing anything notable. The weekend system still intrigues me though.
We got a healthy dose of sleet on the front-end of the precipitation last night, giving a crunchy coating before it changed over to rain. Not much of that fell either, just 0.13″ total liquid by 7am this morning.
He HPC thinks there will be snow nearby on Wednesday.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif
Love this line in the HPC winter weather discussion:
AT PRESENT…THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY WITH WHERE THE AREA OF MOST SNOWFALL WILL SET UP…WHETHER IT MOVES TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND…OR REMAINS GENERALLY IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES…AND EVEN WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OR EVEN IF SOME AREAS AGAIN EXPERIENCE A RAIN TO SNOW SITUATION.
In other words … “uhhh … we don’t know.”
Based on precipitation projections, HPC is on board with at least a moderate system this coming weekend.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif
They’re also still expecting a decent amount of moisture with the Wednesday system.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif
No, WD, on the other side of the mountain off Martin’s Creek Rd
12z NAM keeps the snow well north of our area.
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=190774
TimT, I’m in the gap above you. My PWS is KVAROAN020 and called [Lost Mountain SW Roanoke Co. at 1827'.] It’s listed on wunderground weather.
This will be a first for me. I REALLY hope the weekend snow holds off until Sunday LOL. We are travelling this weekend. It can snow all it wants after I get home on Sunday afternoon though :>)
43 at Roanoke airport at 10 a.m. — 57 at VT Airport in Blacksburg.
The 12z GFS follows the NAM.
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=190788
Blacksburg NWS discussion has been calling the GFS the big dawg model for the Wed/Thur event. 12Z not looking like much snow for SWVA.
Sat/Sun time frame (right now) is a different story…..
Swath of warmer air not particularly elevation dependent
in the 50s runs from Louisiana/ Miss/ Alabama / North Ga/
Wstrn Carolina/ East Tenn/ SWVA/ Eastern OH/ and Most of WVA.
Charleston Wva was 60 an hour ago.
Small swath generally east of Blue Ridge to the Fall Line (West of DC Richmond to Raleigh are in the 40s..area bleeds into Greenbrier Valley area a bit)Winds at 10000ft and 18000ft have a pull off the gulf..
turning more westerly as you get to GA/Tenn.
Jetstream is screaming today over SWVA..150 knots from Texas to VA at
39000 feet.
Roanoke looks like itll have breaks in the sky cover today…
If you watch the skies youll see the upper levels movong along quickly
from SW to NE.
Surface winds increase from the west around noon to 15kts with 32 knot gusts..
Upper level clouds moving along I meant to say..
Moving SW to NE.
And here’s a little 12z GFS eye candy for the weekend:
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=190803
Like I said a couple of days ago, I think the weekend storm is going to be the one to watch.
I’m convinced that we will get a big snow this weekend. The reason: my nephew is flying in from Canada for his “spring break”. Last year he was here during the February 18 snowstorm, and got held up trying to fly out of Roanoke with his grandparents the day of the storm. He’s supposed to be flying in this Saturday I think…
Currently 60 at 1 pm up here on Doppler ridge. Has been cloudy since just before lunch and a tad breezy.
Its still foggy as heck here wind is picking up as well.
No sun today….come on snow i need you:)
WDBJ posted a Snapshot forecast with SWVA in snow for Wed. Anyone see their newscast at noon?
DT just declared “WOOF” for this weekend storm. Could get interesting!
Nurse Snow,
As much as I want snow, We’re 5 days out and DT is already woofing at the models. He needs to buy them a drink before hugging them so tightly!
I remember the last time DT issued a “woof” alert. It was a real dog of a forecast and a complete bust. The way this winter has gone, I’ll believe it when I see it and even then I’ll be skeptical.
The 6-10 day outlook frin CPC……..the cold stays west, barely, but we stay plenty wet. The 8-14 day…….wetter yet and normal temps.
Here’s the 6-10.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/index.php
What does “WOOF”,mean?
Latest NAM, 18Z, hangs the 0c (32F) line at 850 millibars (about a mile up) right over our region all day long Wednesday. Seems to be par for the course this winter, never clear-cut on temperature, one way or the other. Even our obvious rain last night turned into sleet/snow mix in lots of places.
Here’s an example at mid-morning Wednesday. Note the blue line weaving through our area — often a rough marker of the rain/snow line.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov//Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=18&image=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_045_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
DT’s hype is somewhat warranted. Nothing is guaranteed, but there are signs something big may be brewing.
My early take on the weekend is that there probably is going to be a significant to major East Coast winter storm. I think it may come together a little bit late for us to be heavily affected. That said, I’m expecting one of the component disturbances to provide a solid chance of snow for the weekend. It’s often the case that we get a 3-6 or 4-8 inch type snow with a storm that ends up being 12+ somewhere up the coast. Lots of time for specifics to change, in either direction.
Wednesday, not expecting much, but definitely think folks Roanoke and north/west will see at least some snow.
Or we could have a repeat of the 2003 President’s Day storm and get a ton of sleet.
Total of “0.14″ inches of rain with last night’s front. Under a wind advisory now. Still looking for that button to turn the wind machine off and the snow machine on.
Hey guys I was wandering what the “woof” alert meant. Been looking around and I have concluded a 4-8 inch type of thing for Friday. 6-8 + with heavy bands and 6-8 + in the NRV and WV mountains. Now that is how stuff stands right now. Does anybody agree/disagree
Angela…
WOOF is DT’s way of saying that something big is on the horizon. In this case he was referring to the 12Z UKMET model (British). It shows a huge storm for the east coast for this weekend.
The Euro Ensembles from this afternoon are not all in for a President’s Day Storm just yet. Brandon & Kevin’s points are valid but it is still several days out and the models will change again.
I’m holding off for now until I can see concrete movement in the models for better agreement. As Scott Saunders eluded to earlier in the day, I’m still holding at Low Potential for snow until further notice. Yes, there will 3 potential winter weather events starting this Wednesday thru Feb. 23. Somebody on the east coast will see snow…question is where and how much.
One exception comes to mind Kevin. Think it was the Jan. 25 snow. Wasn’t much, but the temps had barely got above freezing for several days. Never was a doubt about that one. Kinda rare for our area to have a cut and dried snow event.
Indeed, Jan. 25 was an all-snow, easily cold enough for snow event, wd. 1-2 inches. The only one this winter like it.
Angela…to be a little sarcastic..
I think it means
“Wheres Our Overblown Flakes” WOOF…
Not to be confuses with Whiff..
The noise a bat makes when it misses the ball.
Show 1-1/4″ here Kevin, but can’t recall what other areas got. Seem to remember it was fairly general, at least for our reporting area.
While things are kinda slow, maybe somebody could give me the snow totals for Dec. 2012. Dummy threw his 2012 calander away.
Roanoke official measurement was 0.3 on Dec. 26, 2012 — but I remember you mentioning you got more than an inch.
Also, a trace on the 29th — but even my location south of town had enough to barely whiten the ground with a morning snow shower.
Nothing else of significance.
Updated elevation due to that great website wdbrand posted. Thanks wd!
So Wednesday’s event may very well be elevation dependent (Parkway north for winter weather and mainly rain to the south.. or a mix). The weekend storm which is the ex Valentines Day storm bears more watching. Is that the general consensus with the models so far?
Shanon, the Chairman of the Snow Haters Club has good news (well, sort of) for you. He also thinks that SW Virginia gets a widespread 6+ inches in the majority of locations this week. The bad news is that if he is right, along with DT and several other folks here, it WILL be on Saturday. He is not happy about that prospect. I base this prediction on nothing more than a gut feel, and the fact that there is a computer fantasy (at this point) possibility out there. If I by a miracle am correct, it will be dumb luck, nothing more. But I have a feeling, that’s all.
But he saw a guy on The Weather Channel last night going into a recap of really big snowstorms. I don’t know the “parameters” of exactly how much snow he used as a condition, or where exactly, but the trend was unmistakable. Big snowstorms in December? Something like 2 or 3. January? 6 or 8. February? 16!! And nearly all of them were between the 1st and the 23rd. We are due.
Jason in Riner, I had not read your comment when I commented at 7:42. Your Canadian nephew is obviously the SW Virginia Snowman. That clinches it ….. get your boots, skis, snowshoes, etc. ready, snow lovers.
Turkeycock Mountain man: I strongly advise you not to use the words “snow” and “need” or “Must have” in the same comment on this blog. Just ask Angela, a wonderful Teacher Who Loves Snow. Those combinations are certified snow-killers!! LOL Just kidding.
Angela, I think I owe you an apology, with my faulty Griggs memory to blame. On further review, I think it was Blossom, not you, who made one of my alltime favorite blog comments about desperately “must have” snow.
Hey, Rick, thanks for posting the link to the CPC 6-10 day. I used that link to look at the 8-14 day, which had north Florida in the purple on yesterday’s run. On today’s run? Warmer than normal? LOL.
Kevin- What are you thinking about for tempertures for the second half of the month? Do you think we will have some cold snaps/average 30′s/ 40′s for some daytime highs?
Haha your probably right Mr Griggs…but living here is always same song is it rain or snow. You think I have a decent chance of snow this week?
Aww, Doug, you’re still giving me a hard time about that???
I meant Saturday
You’ll have to go to Snowshoe for the real snow on Wednesday.
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=FCX
IF this Saturday storm comes to pass, any idea on how long it will actually snow? Even IF it happens, are we still looking at our typical 6 hour or less kind of event? I would give anything at this point to see it snow for at least 12 hours straight.
Hey, Kevin, you made me laugh with the phrase in the top paragraphs “Here is the weekly exercise in futility called the snow meter.” Griggsy predicts a double win for you this week. Which could very easily be the kiss of death.
B-Burg Mike: You’d love the 18Z GFS. About 20 hours of light-moderate snow.
00Z GFS coming in a little colder? Rain changing to at least a few hours of snow for everyone.
The 24 hour period starting Sat early-mid morning
(as modeled now) looks to be a possible 24 hour event..
Could be quite interesting for SW and S Central Va..
North Tx could get in the act of this system briefly too
and at about the same start time Sat..though not as long lasting (hardly
ever do). System will possibly stretch from Tx to New England
with the low centered over Northwestern Ohio / Southern Michigan.
Oops, that was the 00Z NAM, if the GFS shows something similar will make things interesting.
0Z NAM is colder for Wednesday. Would be more snow our way if it verified. But best moisture is north of I-64.
Jared …. maybe?
Because I have a board meeting to attend in Hooville on Saturday means it will probably dump snow. After being on the road last week and not having a full weekend off for several weeks, let’s bring on the snow so I can stay at home, drink hot chocolate and watch the snow fall.
DougF – keep us posted on what the Snow Predication Cat says.
We will need fairly intense snowfall rates to see any substantial accumulation. Ground will be warm. Light snow for a few hours won’t cut it.
OK, Blossom, I will try to remember that you have seen me regurgitate that classic line too many times. Sorry.
I have a great nephew and great niece, just tiny tots now. When they get older and if they get interested in weather like my dad’s side of the family and me did, I will be sure to tell them about this great blog and some of the wonderful people and comments I have seen here. Yours will be one of them.
Severe weather alert!! High winds
The Wednesday threat looks more like a sloppy nuisance event. 00Z GFS takes our President’s Day storm out to sea and gives us very light snow.
The eleven o’clock report on the Johnson City, TN station showed a chance of rain possibly turning to snow late Wednesday evening but the weatherman said the weekend was looking more serious. Several inches of snow over the southern Appalachians with some of the coldest air of the season by Sunday. Looks like the weekend could prove to be interesting.
While I am rooting for snow this year, I am hoping it does not affect Porkapalooza up in Gordonsville this weekend. Who can turn down all you can eat bacon and BBQ?
BRing on a 24 hour snow event, Right BBurg Mike?! =D
scott, I noticed your Griggs-like comment on the previous thread here. I don’t know who can turn down such a combo, but I know who should …. folks with high cholesterol. Both of those items are LOADED with it. :>)