The surprise on Wednesday was that were no surprises. Snow has remained mostly in West Virginia, north of I-64, and in some elevations above 3,000 feet, as widely expected. It has been a cold rain in most of Southwest Virginia, with a few pellets of sleet here and there. Surface temperatures hung in the upper 30s to mid 40s in most locations. Overnight, there may be a little more snow mixed in as temperatures drop behind a cold front.
We’re back in the 50s for highs a couple of days before an Arctic cold front arrives late Friday. The Arctic front along with some weak clipper-like disturbances may allow for some light snow or snow showers, in addition to what is typically kicked up on northwesterly winds blowing up and over the Appalachians. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center paints a little zone of white through the Roanoke and New River valleys and along the Blue Ridge from Friday evening to Saturday evening, signalling what the experts there see as a zero percent chance of 1 inch accumulation, with high chances in West Virginia’s typical mountain upslope areas and lesser chances in central and eastern Virginia. One of the disturbances is expected to trigger a stronger low-pressure system offshore, but it will likely be too far east to have much impact on our region. (UPDATE 12:10 AM, 2/14: The Global Forecast System computer model on Wednesday night revived a swath of snow over Virginia for Friday night and early Saturday. We’ll see if that builds or wilts with additional data on Thursday. The North American Model only spreads light snow or flurries over our region for a few hours.)
The Arctic front will bring a couple of days of highs in the 30s and lows in the teens and 20s before temperatures recover back into the 50s for highs next week, and a new storm systems brings what will likely be all rain about Tuesday. Late next week, another storm system may spread moisture into some wedged-in cold air, but this is way too far out to read much detail on.