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1. We received about an inch of wet snow yesterday in Burke’s Garden. Temp this morning is quite warm at 27. Huge snowflakes fell yesterday. On a different note we ran out of water yesterday so we have to walk four miles of water line to chase down the leak. Hopefully it will be easy to find.

2. Don’t see a sign of any snow on Bent Mt. and along the ridge tops.

3. 27 and lightly snowing

4. SnoWing lightly in Greensboro.

5. Morning all from eastern Goochland, Co where we awoke to a moderate snow, fairly decent flakes and 37 degrees. As of 8:30 AM all precip has fizzled to drizzle…not snizzle, just plain ol’ Drizzle and 38. Still thinking this end of the Commonwealth will only see amounts of less than 2″ today and this evening. Next week’s event potential is still there even if the 0z model runs showed a Great Lakes Runner. Also, next week’s potential for the south to see more severe weather may be on the increase. Time to update QWC.

6. As quickly as it began, the snow stopped.

7. NWS has widended the split between today’s system to the east and later today-tonight’s upslope snow squalls.

   http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/emer/emer.php

   So far, seems to be performing more or less as expected, with most of the snow east of a Martinsville to Lynchburg line.

8. This morning’s Roanoke Times has a wonderful piece by Ken Conklin at the bottom of the editorial page. His sentiments match my own: “It’s winter, not history!”

   May we also see a parallel to these things in the sports section when college basketball is described as having degenerated into “bumping, banging, grabbing, tripping, and colliding?”

9. There’s snow on all the mountaintops here today. If I squint, I can see a few little pieces of icy snow on the roof from last night. It’s 30 with a flurry or 2 in the air.

10. Once I got high enough, I could see some white on the higher peaks around Bent Mt. and patches on top of da Knob.

11. 14th Annual NEWxSFC – Storm #4: Call for Forecasts!

    Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
    Deadline for entries: 10:30 PM EST SAT…16-FEB-13

    Verification period begins: 12:01 AM SUN…17-FEB-13
    Verification period ends: when the snow stops.

    Details @
    http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2013/02/winter-12-13-storm-4-call-for-forecasts.html

12. People, if the 50/50 low and high pressure in eastern Canada are there, the pathetic and pitiful GFS is very wrong in telling you that the low will be a Great Lakes runner. Just a horrible model. True, if those two things are nonexistent, the low could be a Great Lakes runner but I’m going with the Euro again on this one. It has it’s physics in line and won’t tell you lies most of the time. And usually won’t tease you with hopeless projections or anger you with outrageous solutions (kind of what the NAM and GFS do). Euro as of now seems to have the right idea with how next week should set up…I’m not sure what would stall the 50/50 low but all I hope for is that the trend of the low is more southerly so we get more snow than ice.

13. By next weekend some models show
    a vigorous system developing over Texas and Gulf..and sliding up the east
    coast..plenty of cold air to work with into the southeast.
    If this plays out looks like more than 6 inches possible by
    the amount of Gulf and Atlantic moisture cranked in.
    Eastern NC and Southern Va could have more than an inch of precipitable
    moisture to work with…watch for the 2-3-4 Mar timeframe.

14. Flurrying here and snows trying to get across Bent Mt. 32.9*

15. Rick’s “First Look” for the storm late week, is just a real cold rain.

16. I am here in Pulaski and we have had good bit of snow this winter. And I would love to get another BIG snow. What are the chances of this happening ? Does anyone see anything that would lead you to think that we will ?

17. DT predicting major ice storm next Friday.

18. regarding upper air..and polar effects..
    There is an area over SWVA to Chicago extending into Canada..
    that is being affected by elevated ozone.
    Flights that dont have special equipment will not be planned
    at higher altitutes since it can compromise the health of some passengers.
    Airlines only equip their aircraft with special air handling equipment
    on flights that go much closer to the poles..as its quite expensive equipment.
    This is a very rare occasion as flight planning goes.
    Yes there is ozone depletion..and it does migrate south below 66 degrees North.

    TYPE OZONE
    ID 50447
    VALID 161800Z-162100Z
    ALT FL360-FL500
    DISC EXPECT CABIN OZONE AT/ABOVE 0.25PPM..UNFILTERED ACFT ONLY.
    AREA 30NNW YVO – 40ESE YVO – 45ENE UTR – 125NW SPA –
    195W SPA – 42N089W – 165SW YU – 25ENE YTS –
    30NNW YVO

19. I just looked at today’s polar view map (from Allen Huffman), and it shows a polar vortex still hanging around over extreme northern Canada and a bit north of Greenland (I guess the center of it is practically at the North Pole), and it has extended one of its fingers down to Lake Superior and even the U.P. of Michigan. Let me explain: the core of the vortex is a very bright pinkish color, and the bands change to pinkish purple, purple, very bright Royal blue. It is one of those bright blue bands that extends southward all the way to Michigan. Probably causing the cold temps for the eastern USA today, tomorrow, and even Monday for some regions (like Florida! Glad I am not in the Jacksnvlle/Saint Aug area next week ….. low of 27 there on Monday according to TWC).
    As for the crucial possible 50-50, it needs to move west. On both yesterday’s and today’s map, it has migrated east so that it is just south of Greenland. There is also some warmish air over the northern tip of Scotland. Move both of those west a few hundred miles, and we would have (possibly) a 50-50 low AND a weak Greenland block.

20. Through yesterday, after a quite warm 8-day period, Roanoke is at 1.5 degrees warmer than normal for FEB so far, and Blacksburg is at +1.0. Elevator going down for a few days now. Sure looks like February is going to end up fairly close to normal for temps for both cities, unless something unusual happens in the last 7 days.

21. Light snow flurries in Burke’s Garden all day. While it feels colder, the temp is approx. 25.

22. I don’t voice many of my own weather preferences here, but in this case, I hope Rick’s just cold rain is right instead of the major ice storm, which is very valid based on many models. I have no use for ice storms. Plus, snow lovers (with maybe a few exceptions) and snow haters despise them with equal venom. For a snow lover, an ice storm is a huge missed snow opportunity, and for a snow hater, it’s often even more pain and suffering than a snow brings.

    Nick and Joe also have valid ideas on what may happen if the blocking to the north is sufficient to drive the low farther south.

    Looking like we may have a scrape with ice in some areas late Monday night and Tuesday, too.

    Winter hasn’t ended, it’s just not cooperating with anyone’s wishes.

23. David in Salem and joe, thanks for your comments. David, if any area of even 6 or 7 counties gets an ice storm here in Virginia next Friday, DT’s prediction will be one of the most impressive I have ever seen. Just about everything has to be within some unusual parameters for there to be an ice storm: cold air aloft, a wedge or slice of warm air that extends to a fairly low level in the atmosphere, and sub-freezing temps at the ground level. Oh, and precip, too. Chances are that at least one of those ingredients will not result. If the freezing layer extends several hundred feet up into the air, the raindrops become sleet, not raindrops that freeze on contact.

24. Very true, Doug, that potential ice storms often end up locally more as sleet. The Roanoke Valley can be a spot where this is particularly true, as raindrops have an extra 1,000+ feet to fall in which they can freeze. I do remember a few cases where Bent Mountain had freezing rain and Roanoke got sleet.

    Still a long way to go before much becomes very clear on the late-week situation.

25. Seeing lots of 1-2 inch reports down in North Carolina today. Nothing above 2.5 I’ve seen yet, but would not be surprised if a few 3-4-inch reports come in. Several reports of thundersnow near Charlotte today.

26. Note the speckled look on radar of snow showers west of Roanoke. These are “convective” snow showers, somewhat similar to the afternoon and evening pop-up thunderstorms we see in summer. Some sunshine is warming the air just enough for it to lift into extremely cold air aloft, squeezing out snow showers. If you happen to get under one of these convective snow showers, it may go almost whiteout for a couple of minutes, but won’t last long.

    http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/2012/04/10883/

27. Very interesting note on ozone aloft, Joe.

28. A good snow today. Twenty elvin flakes and poof you were gone.

29. HPC starting to ring the bell a bit for potential large-scale late-week winter weather event from the Rockies to the Atlantic. From today’s extended forecast discussion:

    EXPECT THIS WAVE TO STAY SQUASHED AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST, WITH AN ULTIMATE MILLER TYPE B REDEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY DAY 7. THIS TRACK SHOULD RESULT IN ONE OF THE MORE EXPANSIVE AREAS OF SNOW AND ICE THIS WINTER SEASON, WITH A SHELF OF POLAR AIR AVAILABLE FOR THE OVERRUNNING OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

30. Kevin, I agree with your opinion on ice storms. They are a missed chance for snow and cause a lot of damage. I guess they can create beautiful scenes, but it isn’t worth the trouble they cause. The two biggest ice storms I remember around here were late January 1979 and early February 1994. Both of these storms produced widespread power outages across our area.

    The February 1998 ice storm along the Blue Ridge parkway was also very bad, but most lower elevation areas only received rain. That one did a lot of damage on Bent Mountain if I remember correctly.

31. Curious joe.. how are planes more or less equipped for ozone than others?

32. I have no doubt if ice is the menu for late week then we will have rain. Too far west for cold air damming and I am glad of that. It has been cold and windy today with snow flurries. About 6 pm the winds picked up and a snow squall covered the ground. Temp is 24.

33. Yes, quite often, the cold-air damming scenarios leave the areas west of I-77 without ice. I’ve seen it 20s with ice or snow in Roanoke and low 50s toward Wise a couple of times.

34. Matt..Its because its usually more of an issue
    for flights flying nearer the poles..
    and for extended periods at high altitudes..
    Its not cost effective to equip all domestic flights
    with these ozone “scrubbers”..
    For as infrequent as ozone noses into the domestic USA
    interior its more cost effective to just plan the flights
    either around the area..or at a reduced altitude..
    Its the very high altitudes that are normally at issue.
    As we speak the area has drifted into central Va..runs
    from Canada near Buffalo south including all of SWVA
    to South Carolina to Chicago well into Quebec..
    You probably wont notice it..but some (most) flights over Va
    Wont be operating between 36000ft to 50000ft this evening.

35. Already down to 20 and a continuous breeze. Have had off and on snow showers all day but none have stayed around.

    Yuck, ice! Not a lover of ice. Always means power outages and generator running to me.

36. Some reports of around 6 inches of snow coming in from Appomattox and Buckingham counties in Virginia, where a band of heavy snow became stalled.

37. 5 inches have fallen in the last 3.5 hours here at Wintergreen. Seems to have stopped now.

38. Count me in for being an ice storm hater!! It makes our job incredibly dangerous. And of course for anyone who works outside. Best way by far to deal with ice on the roads and highways?? Do not drive!!
    Which reminds me of something. Back in the dark ages of my younger days, somewhere along the line tire companies started selling snow tires outfitted with tiny metal studs. As I remember it, they were the best tires for dealing with ice and very good in snow, also, but many of the northern states found that they wore out their highway road surfaces PDQ. Anyone out there know or remember more about that product?

39. Kevin, it’s OK with me if you get a once-in-a-season exception and get to move the snow meter cities to Buckingham County and Burke’s Garden. Speaking of BG, thanks Kelly H for checking in. I wonder if it even reached 30* there. According to Jay Webb of 7, Blacksburg did not get above freezing. 32* high.

40. Brace yourself for tomorrow, Doppler Gal. Winds are supposed to howl pretty good (or “bad”) manana.

41. joe, TYVM for all the fascinating info about airplanes and the ozone.

42. 24 here in Hokieburg and some flurries earlier but now clear and cold outside with Orion twinkling in the southern sky. This stop and start again nature of this winter has made me be really done with winter now. Ready for spring.

43. More start and stop to come.

44. You can get them studs put in a new tire. They can’t be used in summer, only between maybe Nov. and have to be off by April. Don’t quote me on the dates, just call any tire dealer and he can tell you the time frame. And yes, in ice they work.

45. All tires I’m fanaliar with are moulded with small indents in then to accomadate the metal studs and can only be put in a tire that’s new.

46. Don’t want clutter the thread up but on studded tires there’s something to consider. I’ve run them on construction vehicles. They’re the difference of getting stuck, going off the road or going where you were headed. In fair weather, beware!!! Rubber ain’t meetin the pavement and they will not grip as good as an unstudded tire.

47. My parents live in appomattox and have 7 inches of heavy wet snow, 8 inches at my grandmas house in Pamplin. They said the roads were very slick.. We live 20 minutes to the west in Campbell county and have maybe an inch on the grass.

48. Wow, thanks wd!! I thought they had been outlawed years (decades ago). I just got new tires in Tepsember, so I will have to wait awhile. But they are due for a rotation pretty soon, so if I remember (FAT CHANCE OF THAT!) I will ask them about it.

49. Kevin, the description you provided in your 5:16 comment about the rarity of ice in the Roanoke valley while Bent Mountain can get ice is exactly what happened in early Feb of 1998, my first winter here. Just a tiny bit of ice on exposed mailboxes near the street and on metal hand railings in Big Lick, but the front walks and roads were just wet. But massive ice damage and power outages in Bent Mountain area. Also devastating tree damage there and near the BRP 5 miles east of Buchanan, just SW of the Peaks of Otter.

50. Doug some of the rural route mail carriers up here run studded tires.

    21º and winds of 16-20 from the NW, brr.

51. I know everyone here is not interested in upper level
    weather…but here is another area where measuring ozone
    is important with forecasting hurricanes.
    Link to NASA Goddard..
    http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2005/ozone_drop.html

52. Thanks for the report, Stephanie. Saw a 7-inch report from Buckingham County. Amazing little snow bullseye over that way.

53. Yep – the winds are supposed to pick up in intensity. I think I read gusts up to 45 mph up here. Then you have the cold temps to begin with and then the wind – I think the wind chills are supposed to be below zero in the morning. Brrr! (Down to 19 now).

54. If I remember, Doppler Gal, I will look up what the wind chill would be using the old system for 15* and 45 mph wind. I can guarantee it will be at least 15 below zero, perhaps even -20 or colder.

55. Snowing in Myrtle Beach now.

56. Just in the last 15 minutes the roads are white, the car says 22F, Galax About 2650ft.

57. how in the world does it snow at the beach but it can’t even snow in the mountains. What is wrong with this picture¿

58. Oh gosh, now Jared is sure to exclaim about snow in Myrtle Beach and probably zippo in his yard.

59. As Appbrookie notes, some rather potent snow squalls pushing through the New River Valley down toward the Galax area. Several spots could get white in the next several minutes.

60. I HATE ice. I hope DT is wrong, but because I hope he is wrong, he is going to be right. I want a darn 3ft snow. not 2 inches of ice!!!!!

61. Another Squall just started in Galax, not as intense as the last. Only about 1/2in snow on the roads, but slick.

62. Where is clarkdocvet? He lives down sort of near you, Appbrookie. Maybe he is like wd, on E.C.T. (Eastern Chicken Time).

63. Doppler Carol, assuming that the Weather Wizard posts this promptly, here is a Sunday morning surprise for you. From the World Almanac of 1994, page 171. NOAA wind chill table in effect back then. Temp of +15F, wind of 45 yielded a wind chill value of -30F!!

64. Cute Thomas, with the upside down question mark. Do you have a keyboard produced in Spain or Mexico? They use upside down question marks in Spanish.

65. no Doug I just do a long hold on the question mark and it turns it up side down. its a tablet¿