Blizzard to hammer Northeast; we get gusty winds
A historic blizzard is coming together off the Northeast coast as energy from strong storm systems riding the northern and southern streams merge offshore. This is expected to deliver a widespread area of 1 to 3 feet of snow on New England, including the Boston area, with near-hurricane force winds and coastal storm surge. Linked here is a running list of snow totals (ours from last night are listed), wind speeds and other data from the storm, provided by the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. Websites of the Boston Herald and Boston.com provide an inside-the-storm view of events as they unfold tonight. And there’s always NOAA satellite photos and our own Radar / Futurecast (you can widen the view and drag the map to the Northeast) to look at images of the storm as it continues to intensify and move toward the coast.
For Southwest Virginia, the major ongoing effect from the New England blizzard will be gusty winds, topping 40, even 50 mph at times. Wind advisories are out for all of western Virginia, with high wind warnings for Carroll and Grayson counties, where some 60 mph gusts may occur in the higher terrain. Travelers on Interstate 77 through Fancy Gap should particularly take note.
Other than the wind, the weekend will be fairly typical for February, even a bit milder than normal, with highs in the 40s to low 50s, lows in the 20s to low 30s. Rain begins to move in Sunday night into Monday. At this time, it appears very likely to be well above freezing when it rains, perhaps scraping 60 on Monday. With the core low-pressure system near the western Great Lakes, it would be very unlikely that any air cold enough for freezing or frozen precipitation could be present when the moisture moves in.
Storm systems in the Wednesday-Thursday time-frame and again about the following Sunday-Monday are worth paying attention to for winter storm potential in or near our region. We’ll leave that there, for now.
February 8, 2013 - 5:37 PM
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Mr, Griggs, how did you fare today?
*** This too-long comment is about POSTAL DELIVERY, so please skip it if not interested.
Thanks for asking, wd. I had to be careful, but it all worked out. The roads started melting like crazy about 9:30-10:00. Before that I had to park the truck a few feet away from some boxes because there was a big crown in road and thick slush. There is something to be said for having done a job for so long. A veteran letter carrier knows not to get too close to a mounted box when there is any kind of uphill grade and more than a 1/2 inch of snow on the road. Especially when the USPS did not install chains on the trucks this morning. Don’t get me wrong ….. I agree completely with that decision. I skipped one delivery about 9:30 that is at the bottom of a short but very steep hill on the one unplowed section of road I saw all day. But I go right by that address about 70 minutes later, and road was OK by then, so I delivered at that time.
BTW, my commute into work was a piece of cake. Just took 419 north to Lakeside Shopping Center in east Salem, then East Main Street east to Melrose Avenue on the Roanoke city side of the border. All of those roads are main roads, so VDOT hits them first and probably multiple times if the conditions warrant it.
This entire day could have been one big disas …. challenge, if the temps had been 5 to 7 degrees colder this morning, with no swift warm-up. That’s what we had during the winter of 2009-10 several times. YUCK!!!!!
Just got caught by the new thread. This makes 79 times that I have posted something, only to find that KM has already started a new thread. LOL That is NOT a complaint, KM, even though many here may consider it one. Partly it is because I often post late evening, and that is a good time for Kevin to s-a-n-t. I just posted a comment about the drought monitor on the end of previous thread, if any of you are interested.
Drought monitor that Doug referred to in the last thread:
http://www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DM_state.htm?VA,SE
Frankly, I’m surprised there is any drought left anywhere on the map after last week’s rains.
This thread is likely to hold at least 24-36 hours. Gonna take it kind easy the next couple of days, get some rest. Will be on and off here some, but not spend a lot of time.
Take that break and don’t worry about the board. Jest find someboDys roof that that needs shingles worser than your back and GIVUM TOOEM.
Here’s all that LOW pressure coming out of the desert southwest, heading our way for about Sunday the 17th. As Kevin says, we have plenty of time to watch and consider it.
Here’s all that LOW pressure coming out of the desert southwest, heading our way for about Sunday the 17th. As Kevin says, we have plenty of time to watch and consider it. And this time I’ll include the link!
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=7&fcolor=wbg
Yeah, Kevin, take another semi-break and try to get healed AMAP (As Much As Possible). And for what it is worth, I agree completely with your 6:14 comment. Maybe the drought monitor folks don’t move a region that was D1 all the way to no drought unless there has been a flood. It sure looks that way from the appearance of the Drought M.
It is fascinating to watch the 2 pieces of energy coming together and closing the dry slot west of NYC.
Here are the CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks from this afternoon, We won’t have a human-influenced one again until Monday afternoon. On the 6-10 day, only the East Coast in the lower 48 is “outlooked” to be neutral for temps, with every state west of the Mississippi River in the blue, along with Miss.-Alab.-most of TN-Illinois-Wisconsin-and most of MICH. Sure looks like the beginning of another Arctic Surge.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/index.php We are still supposed to be wetter than normal (yay).
But the 8-14 day looks very similar to the 6-10 for temps. Maybe a positive PNA or some other reason keeping the western states cold? And the outlook for precip is even likelier to be wetter than normal for us … 50%.
Link to 8-14 day: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
Thanks, Rick. Yeah, from what little I remember about lows in Arizona, it seems that would be a great position to move east, pick up Gulf moisture, then hit eastern seaboard, maybe us.
John B: Someone in New Jersey is going to get dry slotted or “jumped over” by the storm. NYC seems to be hanging on the western edge of the heavier snow. Maybe the new energy infusion will keep it going there a little longer.
Like the Storm Prediction Center’s use of “bonafide” to describe the blizzard in this mesoscale discussion.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0126.html
Blizzard Bonafide is a much better name than the Disney fish used by a certain television network.
LOL Kevin. Nemo doesn’t sound too severe does it? It’s a shame that weather forecasting has now entered the silly stage.
My daughter goes to college in NYC so I will call her in a bit to get a first hand account.
Major Garrett of CBS News posted on Twitter: “I thought only Dairy Queen named Blizzards.”
Although I think naming winter storms is stupid, TWC’s coverage of weather events like this one is unmatched.
They have the resources and the expertise to do that.
But I’m seeing a range of opinions about TWC coverage on social media.
I just talked with my brother-in-law Mal (short for Malcolm) in Ipswich, MA. They had only 4 inches, but it is now starting to really come down. He said that the wind has been the most impressive thing so far. “Blowin’ like crazy since noon.” Boston recently had a wind gust of 51, but I bet that will be “blown away” later on, probably will see gusts of well over 60. Weather guy on Fox News (Rick Reichmuth?) says that the storm surge of possibly 7 feet is something that could cause major damage (in midwinter, no less!!) to some coastal areas.
From what I could tell from the radar that I saw on TV earlier this evening, it seems to me that areas south of a line extending due west from Boston are going to get the most. But probably not Cape Cod …. may be a changeover back to sleet or rain there, I think I heard. Mal thinks that the forecasts and models that called for widespread 30+ inches in eastern Mass. were overdone. We will see.
I agree with you Brandon, about TWC’s storm coverage. Just wish they would stop the naming of winter storms ridiculousness. And Nemo is the name of a cartoon fish? OK, I “larnt” something. I will always link Nemo to the Captain of the Nautilus in James Verne’s “20,000 Leagues Under the Sea.” And from the novel, NOT from the movie “League of Extraordinary Gentlemen.” Which started out to be a promising movie, but ended up as another case of ridiculousness, AFAIC.
5-inch-per hour snowfall rates in Connecticut now.
Contrary to my earlier comment, looks like New Jersey filled in with the storm merger now.
I have a friend who lives in Massachusetts. An hour ago she said they already have 6 inches and are being told to expect at least 3 inches per hour. She said their governor signed an executive order banning all motor vehicle traffic on roads starting at 4pm today.
Deb in Fairlawn: in what city or town in Mass. is your friend? I have a sister in Ipswich, nephew in Salisbury (coastal Mass at the mouth of the Merrimack River — almost in NH), a 2nd sister who lives in central Mass town of New Salem (just south of Athol and Orange), and a lifelong friend in extreme western Mass town of Lee.
I just looked at the HPC website. It has some snow totals, including those around here! KM, at least you get a “win” for Blacksburg on the snow meter. According to HPC, Bburg got 2.3 inches of snow.
Doug: That wasn’t at the official NWS site. Only 0.8 there. That was actually a short distance outside of Blacksburg. Loss stands, barring 0.2 over weekend (see no real chance).
Of all the New England states, CT had the highest snow totals so far, 13″ being the top amount I think, which makes sense. That is the first New England state hit by the Nor’easter blizzard.
Doug, she’s in Merrimac.
oops Doug, I didn’t finish that! Halfway between Lawrence and Portsmouth.
Kevin, re Blacksburg official snow total ….. OUCH!! So sorry. Couple of things in your life recently could have been a lot better. Your health and the snow meter record since New Year’s Day. I would tease you if you weren’t feeling so poorly.
My health is good overall. I’m at work tonight, played in the snow with son today, shoveled the driveway, etc. My snow meter record has not been good since January started. About to be .500 for the season with Blacksburg. But I’m not really worried about it. Tease away.
Hey, Nick, are you out there? I am watching Paul Goodloe of The Weather Channel in New York City. He sure sounds like a snow lover. “Officially in Central Park the snow so far is only 2-and-a-half inches, but the rainfall is 1.5 inches. That rain has robbed this area of a big snowfall.”
Q: What do Kevin’s snow meter record and the VT men’s basketball team have in common? ……. They both have fallen on tough times since the beginning of 2013. At least you have had some wins, KM. VT hoopsters are a miserable 2-7 since Jan 1st, and 2-9 for last 11 games.
My sister Susie (wife of Mal) says that at 9:51 they had 5 inches “of icy snow” in Ipswich, MA, 25 miles NE of Boston on the coast. Wind steady at 20 (she estimates, but I bet it is a bit more than that) with gusts to 40. No drifting yet because the snow they have had so far is wet and heavy. If the guys on TWC are correct, that could be changing for her soon. Jim Cantore in Boston Common says the snow is now very light in texture, and just announced that the number of customer outages in New England has climbed to 400,000. Big majority of them along the SE Coast of Mass, and probably quite a few along the south coasts of RI and CT.
Hamdenville CT has skyrocketed to 19.5 inches!! Some town in CT just received 6 inches in the latest hour. Peak wind at Boston’s Logan Airport just hit 76 mph.
WOW! That really jumped. Last I read there were 120,000 without. I’m sure there will be more as the night goes on.
Thanks, Deb in Fairlawn. Maybe your friend will let you know how much she got after the snow stops, and you can post it here. Then I won’t have to bother my nephew in Salisbury, which is right next door to Merrimac, I think.
That is an incredible rate of snowfall!!
Doug, with you being a Trek fan, I think you’ll understand my humor when I say that watching these guys out in the snow and wind reminds me of Sulu calling the ship in the episode “The Enemy within” while he is freezing on the planet.
“Can’t wait…no time…can’t wait…”
Kevin, most definitely get some rest. Take it from me (a shingles victim), rest is essential in the healing process. I missed a great deal of work when I had my shingles. Looks like the weather is going to be mild and wet for a few days before the winter side of things resurfaces. Rest while you can.
CNN’s coverage has been top notch tonight as well.
Get some rest Kevin. Next week looks WILD.
New GFS snow map for the possible Valentine’s Day storm.
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=190358
John Baldwin and Michael, you two just interrupted the Deb-Doug-Kevin show. We were the only 3 commenting here between 9:31 and a few minutes ago. And I am glad that you interrupted. Where is everybody? I know where two of our most loyal bloggers are (sleeping), but others? Brandon, come on, say something. Often you come up with stuff that is novel and very interesting.
LOL to Kevin’s comment #16! I agree!
The airlines are losing some buckos as a result of this big snowstorm. 5000 flights canceled up there. Don’t know if that is New England only or if it includes NY, NJ, etc. Number of outages up to 426,000.
Snow fans might like the threat looming around 120hrs on the 0z GFS.
Probably my last comment this evening. I just checked the wind conditions for 5 different MASS towns. Only Boston had a NE wind. Provincetown’s wind was out of the SE, and it wasn’t snowing, but an extremely windy rain mist. Worcester has a wind out of the NW, Ipswich and Gloucester had winds out of the north. If a lot of coastal communities in eastern Mass have winds out of the north instead of the NE or E, the amount of coastal flooding may be reduced somewhat.
And here’s the projected GFS snowfall over the next eight days:
http://t.co/XHm3vanB
Got to give props to my wife – as silly as TWC storm naming is, she thought of a great headline for the Boston Papers tomorrow:
“BLINDING NEMO”
And the map referenced by Ben G. above. Yep, a few flakes alright.
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=FCX
Thanks, Brandon, great comment, even if it could be BAD news for us letter carriers. Must be an event next weekend. 29*, breezy and clear here. I have been watching TWC most of time while doing exercises and having bfast, and not once have I seen them produce a list of snowfall totals. Lots of commercials, however. Maybe I missed the list while I was not watching.
31.4″ in Gorham Maine.
35″- Tolland CT. 28.8* here and all the snow has gone. What it didn’t do was take this wind with it. Oh well, reckon DC never got that strand of barbed wire put back up.
Agree Hokie Trax about comment #16!
22 with howling winds as the sun comes up over the ridge. Can’t wait for the wind to stop.
Hamden , Connecticut- 35 inches with drifts just shy of her window sills. A friend just reported she had to climb out one of her windows in order to get to the doors and shovel a path to let her dogs out.
Merrimac, Mass- haven’t heard yet.
I’ve been watching reports on Wunderground and seeing some photos. Looks like CT has received the worse of this storm. I am seeing such varying snowfall amounts it reminds me of our snowfalls here. A friend in ME said she has 4 foot drifts and bare ground on her property. She also reported a 100mph gust up that way (Cranberry island I think).
Brandon….nice projected snowfall. Do we believe it though? Are we in for another potential Nor’easter that might affect our area?
Interesting string of LOW’s coming out of the gulf on Saturday the 16th. That’s a snow pattern for us.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=7&fcolor=wbg
Tina B.: I believe it. I wouldn’t take the map I posted as gospel this far out but I think the models have the right idea.
Also important to note that the GFS map Brandon posted would be the cumulative snowfall of two different systems, not just one big storm.
With first system, available cold air may be marginal– why NWS is still going with rain and 40s at this point — and the second system is, well, a week away. But it does look like two solid cracks at the bat for snow lovers.
I think the second storm has more potential. But as we have seen this year, you can’t count anything out.
Tina B…
Concur with with Brandon & Kevin on next week.
Storm #2 will be much more potent for the 16-18th timeframe.
Also looking at something around the 22nd-23rd as well.
Here’s the 06Z GFS clown map here
GFS snow map from the latest run is going to look a lot different. Cuts down on snow chances over the next week dramatically. The storm for the 16th-18th timeframe forms way too far north. Just one run though.
Looks like there is no storm next weekend in Va. on the 12Z GFS. Pretty cold, though.
Oh no! It’s model madness again! I honestly don’t consider the GFS worthy until we’re within 3-4 days of the event. Look at the Euro ensembles, people!
Yes Doug, I’m out here! Paul Goodloe seemed a bit giddy in the snow! He is definitely a snow lover like our own Leo Hirsbrunner on WDBJ7.
The past storm (I refuse to call it a name like TWC) overperformed. Got 1.5 inches of sleet/snow. Around 13 inches for the season at my house.
Doug, Merrimac got over 2 feet but less than 3. Some parts of the beach area were evacuated due to rising tides I was told.
Dopplerville checking in. It is not too bad out there now so have been outside most of the afternoon. wdbrand – I thought you had found the button to turn off the wind so I didn’t go along the fence line looking for the downed barbed wire! LOL
Daffodils are coming through the mulch so I have been covering them back up and then noticed that the buds on the forsythia are starting to plump up. But I still think there is a chance for one more snow this month.
Not too bad of a day to be outside enjoying the fresh air.
Snow totals from several spots up north. Bob and Lisa Macintosh sounded like a few of you snow lovers. They “only” got 8-10 powdery inches in far western Mass. town of Lee. They love to snowshoe and cross-country ski, so they were disappointed. TWC guy early last night claimed that the “phasing” (“merging” for us laymen) of the two storms got delayed a couple of hours, thus reducing expected snow totals in the Hudson River valley (at least around Albany) and western Mass.
Bob’s brother Alan lives in Newburyport, MA, at the other end (NE corner) of the Bay State. He got 26 inches with some huge drifts. Wind was howling all night long. Probably some gusts over 50, maybe even 60. I read above where a coastal Maine village went to Cat. 2 hurricane level with 100. That infamous man from Nantucket (that should get Quags laughing hysterically) had a wind gust of 90, according to Alan. My sister Donna in central Mass (New Salem, 15 miles NE of Amherst and with 800′ elevation) got 18 to 20 inches, with lots of drifting, too. The great news for all these folks that I have known for just about my entire life is that none of them lost power. Probably directly related to the fact that none of them live in SE Mass, where a huge number of outages occurred.
I asked Alan where he would place this storm among all the snowstorms he has ever witnessed. He has lived in eastern Mass. his entire life. He said 2nd place, behind the Blizzard of ’78. He was basing that not only on the amount of snow, but also on the immense winds of this storm and the 1978 monster, and the storm surges and massive power outages in both those storms. There may have been one or two other storms that dumped more snow (he could not remember), but not with as many damaging effects.
Bob actually sent me an e-mail!! He also gave snow reports from Exeter (BOOOOOOO!) New Hampshire, where his daughter and son-in-law live: 24 inches. And from our other lifelong friend, Jeff Flint, in North Conway, NH, 12-15 inches. North Conway is in a valley in the heart of NH ski country (and not that far from the infamous Mount Washington), while Exeter is generally in the SE corner of NH, about 20 miles inland from Portsmouth, NH.
Meanwhile, it got very close to 50 degrees with diminishing winds and full sun all day here in ROA!! WHY I MOVED OUT OF MASS TO SW VIRGINIA!!!
Despite what you may have heard and read about this weekend’s nor’easter…it was not a blizzard.
Blizzards are wind storms where the visibility is restricted to under 1/4SM by blowing or falling snow and the sustained wind speed (or frequent gusts) are 35 MPH (30 knots) or greater for a period of three hours or more.
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/wsom/manual/archives/NC429205.HTML
None of the observing stations in the NE reported conditions anywhere near the conditions required for a storm to be classified as a blizzard.
NEWx: I will readily admit that I haven’t closely analyzed the storm enough myself to determine if it was a “blizzard” or not. SPC described it as a “bonafide blizzard” in a mesoscale discussion. So I’ve sorta presumed from that and the numerous blizzard warnings (and the headline to this blog post preceded the storm).
I will leave the definition to post-storm analysis and hedge it at “historic winter storm” in my newest post, just to be safe.
There were strong indications this event would _develop_ into a bona fide blizzard — the impetus for SPC’s 0737 PM CST FRI FEB 08 MSD — with ‘bona fide’ meaning the storm would meet or exceed the meteorological definition of a blizzard; however…the obs post-mortem do not support that classification.
—
Wind speed – check
Falling or blowing snow – check
Restricted visibility – not so much.
KISP (Islip airport on Long Island..NY) came the closest but blizzard-type conditions lasted about half the required time.
More…
http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2013/02/winter-12-13-storm-3-blizzard.html
Bear with me here…this is one of my favorite winter-wx pet peeves.
One other thing to consider is the disconnect between conditions stipulated in a blizzard ‘warning’ vs. blizzard conditions.
Blizzard warning: VSBY less than _or equal to_ 1/4SM
Blizzard conditions: VSBY less than 1/4SM
Don’t ask me why.
Ask the National Weather Circus.
1/4 mi vis is not uncommon with heavy snow..
what you did not mention was for the strong
winds needed to constitute a blizzard.
Also a blizzard doesnt even have to have
precip falling from clouds.
Drifting snow alone can create blizzard conditions.
1/4 mi with even heavy snow can be fairly easy to navigate
and certainly airplanes usually dont have a problem with 1/4 mi vis
if winds arent a factor.
Winds in excess of 35mph is the larger factor in making it extremely dangerous.
I dont think ive ever read a weather sequence in over 30 years where
heavy snow only will create vis less than 1/4 mi..there will have to
be other components that drive the reduced visibilities..like fog
or wind driven/ drifting snow . The “blizzard” term is heavily dependant on winds as much or more than visibility.
Vis less than 1/4 can result in “whiteout” and of course thats extremely dangerous..driving or walking.
Insofar as no station not having the required 3 hour timeframe
to constitute a blizzard MWN (Mount Washington NH) certainly
provides many hours of “Bona Fides”
Heres 19 hours or so worth.
MWN
100358 100352Z 36047G55KT 0SM -SN FZFG BLSN VV000 M20/M20 R
100300 100252Z 36051G58KT 0SM -SN FZFG BLSN VV000 M20/M20 R
100152 100148Z 35032G46KT 1/16SM -SN FZFG BLSN VV001 M22/M2
100058 100052Z 35040G51KT 1/16SM -SN FZFG BLSN VV001 M22/M2
092359 092349Z 35033G49KT 1/16SM -SN FZFG BLSN VV001 M23/M2
092258 092249Z 36032G43KT 1/16SM FZFG BLSN VV003 M23/M23 RM
092152 092148Z 36027G41KT 1/16SM FZFG BLSN VV003 M22/M22 RM
092102 092052Z 36033G44KT 1/16SM FZFG BLSN VV003 M22/M22 RM
091958 091949Z 36032G47KT 1/16SM -SN FZFG BLSN VV003 M21/M2
091858 091853Z 02030G39KT 1/16SM -SN FZFG BLSN VV003 M21/M2
091802 091750Z 02035G47KT 1/16SM -SN FZFG BLSN VV003 M21/M2
091658 091651Z 01033G46KT 1/16SM -SN FZFG BLSN VV002 M20/M2
091558 091551Z 04043G57KT 1/16SM -SN FZFG BLSN VV002 M18/M1
091502 091454Z 04044G55KT 1/16SM -SN FZFG BLSN VV002 M18/M1
091358 091354Z 05054G62KT 1/16SM -SN FZFG BLSN VV002 M18/M1
091258 091252Z 06046G70KT 1/16SM -SN FZFG BLSN VV002 M18/M1
091208 091156Z 05052G67KT 1/16SM -SN FZFG BLSN VV003 M19/M1
091058 091050Z 05046G57KT 0SM SN FZFG BLSN VV000 M19/M19 RM
090959 090953Z 05045G51KT 0SM SN FZFG BLSN VV000 M20/M20 RM
090900 090853Z 05060G65KT 0SM PLUSSN FZFG BLSN VV000 M18/M
A generation from now New Englanders are going to tell their grandkids about the Blizzard of ’13 and New Jersey shore residents are going to tell their grandkids about Hurricane Sandy, meteorological technicalities notwithstanding.
My native portion of northeast Arkansas was placed under its first-ever blizzard warning on Christmas night. After the fact, I couldn’t find any obs that would support a “blizzard” status, but there’s already lots written and said about the Christmas Blizzard. I’m not going to be the grinch and take away their rare “blizzard.”
Unfortunately — I’m afraid the Northeast snowstorm is going to go down as “Winter Storm Nemo” to a lot of people. The Weather Channel’s naming convention finally seemed to gain some traction with this storm, after being largely ignored before, judging by the number of public officials and others using #Nemo on Twitter.
MWN is 6000′ MSL.
So point taken…blizzard conditions at 6000′ MSL.
Comment by joe — February 9, 2013 @ 11:09 pm # 76.1/4 mi
what you did not mention was for the strong winds needed to constitute a blizzard.”
—
Comment by NEWxSFC — February 9, 2013 @ 6:23 pm
“Blizzards are wind storms where the visibility is restricted to under 1/4SM by blowing or falling snow and the sustained wind speed (or frequent gusts) are 35 MPH (30 knots) or greater for a period of three hours or more.”
How’s that again?
No mention of wind speed you say?
Please proceed.