End of winter? Not really
Meteorological winter is over, now that the calendar is flipping to March. Winter 2012-13 will finish tied for Roanoke’s 8th warmest on record (dating to 1912) with an average temperature of 41.9. This despite February being a very near normal month at only 39.2 degrees (4/10 of a degree below normal), the coldest winter month we’ve had since January 2011. It was also Blacksburg’s 10th warmest winter at 36 degrees, dating to 1952.
Winterlike weather, however, is not over. Cold weather (30s/40s highs, 20s-low 30s lows — teens by Sunday morning west of Roanoke) with intermittent mountain snow showers will continue through the weekend. Significant accumulations are likely to be confined to 3,000+ elevations west of Interstate 77, near the Virginia-West Virginia line, and especially in West Virginia’s mountains. Some locations there may rather slowly pile up a foot or more through the weekend.
Of course, the meteorological obsession for the next several days is going to be the potential for a winter storm to develop/move through somewhere near our region in the middle part of next week (Tuesday-Wednesday). At left is the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center’s (soon to change its name to the Weather Prediction Center) best early guess at total precipitation in the 48 hours from Tuesday evening to Thursday evening — the dark blue is 0.50-0.75 liquid. If it were all snow, it would be about 5-8 inches. But, of course, this an early broadbrush based on the average of several computer models. Some forecast models take the storm to our south and out to sea, missing us entirely. A few have tried to bring it farther north, over us, bringing more of a rain/snow mix (and even in the scenario on the HPC map, some of it may be rain to start). But most solutions are somewhere in between these extremes — and a few have been extreme in a different way, with a strong low intensifying in Georgia and rolling up the East Coast, spreading foot-plus snow amounts in the Appalachians and Piedmont, including western Virginia. The important thing for now is not the specifics of any forecast model solution, but the weather pattern’s likelihood to produce a strong low pressure system moving through and/or developing in the Southeast U.S. with unseasonably cold air blocked southward into much of the eastern U.S. (Keep in mind, a rather potent low will be diving southeast into the central U.S. and then tracking across the South — our snow chances next week are not ALL about where a coastal low would intensify or track.) In other words, many pieces are on the table for a potentially significant winter storm somewhere in the southern or eastern U.S. Whether that means an inch, a foot or not a flake outside your particular window is well outside the resolution of data at this time. Stay tuned.
February 28, 2013 - 10:33 PM
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Kevin, in reply to your comment 64 (right now the final one on the previous thread: That track through Kentucky was exactly what WDBJ7 has shown twice tonight. Mr. Skeptical About Snow Robin Reed explained that their thinking is that if the Low continues SE into South Carolina, that means no snow for SW Virginia. But if it tracks through NC, then we might get some snow …. I think he used the phrase “light snow.”
Catching up here after some long work days this week. Congrats to Kevin and to us – The Weather Journal Nation, for the upper-right-link on the other RT web pages for the WJ.
Kevin I noticed that tiny head shot of you next to the upper right WJ link looks different than your head shot on this blog and other places on the RT site. Are we going to see a new photo on the blog soon?
Got a quarter inch of snow on the ground, a newborn calf and a good start this morning. 27F and the upslope-spit-a-thon has been going on for hours.
Very brisk wind. I will need to split more wood this weekend to get through the rest of this still-feels-like-winter weather.
Kevin: How much snow has Blacksburg received so far this winter? And how much is average for a season?
How does the upper level energy look with this potential storm? If it is really really strong, don’t models have a hard time deciding where to develop the coastal? Thanks for your time! Hope we get some snow from this!
I’m vastly intrigued into seeing your snowfall meter predictions Monsieur Myatt. How long will you continue the snowfall meter?
Dan: The upper-level energy with next week’s storm system looks to be very strong. And the models are struggling to pinpoint how to handle the system.
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I would generally agree with Robin Reed on that one, Doug. If the upper low cuts all the way to the SC coast there’s probably an offshore development of the low and we’re lightly brushed or missed altogether.
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NrVBrandon: Blacksburg is up to 17.6 inches, counting the 0.6 in October. Normal is 25.4.
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Indian Valley John: Don’t think the nameplate at the top of the blog is due to change soon. Yes, that is a different, newly shot mug with the link at upper right.
Just 2 more weeks after this one, Nick. And it can’t end soon enough, now that it looks likely Blacksburg won’t get an inch this week (just 0.2 on Thursday morning) and I’ll clinch a losing season there. Might hit my goal of 10-5 for Roanoke, though, as I’ll be up to 9-4 unless there is a miracle inch this weekend.
I would go high on the snow meter for this week Kevin!
All models have trended north which is perfect for Greene right now! Now I just have to hope for no more northward trend or we will probably get all rain. I have a bad feeling that Greene is gonna get screwed again! LOL
Here comes the snow next week according to Accuweather.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/midatlantic-snowstorm-potentia/7088979
If this storm does make it thru central Va., it won’t be because of atmospheric conditions, models, patterns or the like. You can think JF for it. He’s cussed, snorted, pawed the ground, throwed snot fits all winter because of the lack of snow. It will be because ole Man Winter was shamed into delievering him a snow. Thanks buddy.
NWS says rain/snow “showers” for Tue night through Wed night??? “Showers”…….really? Ok, I’m out. Not wasting the weekend obsessing over this stuff………again! I think some folks are “wishcasting” by calling this a Miller A.
Happy Meteorological Spring! Yes, I agree with Nick – go high on the snow meter, Kevin!
And the NWS forecast on Feb. 17 last year for 2 days later was rain showers, Blacksburg Mike. That wording means very ilttle at this point, except boilerplate language to cover a wide range of uncertainty.
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That said — I don’t think the foot-plus storm is going to happen here with this likely west-east track as it passes by/near us. HPC “middle ground” track is perfect for snow here, though, taking the low right across North Carolina. GFS is farther south and Euro a bit farther north. Also, while temps are cold, it is early March, so a nighttime/morning arrival of precip would help with lower air and surface temps and could better ensure mostly/all snow and boost accumulation, compared to arriving in the afternoon. Timing is uncertain between Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday night.
Gonna see what it looks like on Sunday before doing anything with with the snow meter next week.
The HPC (which becomes the WPC on Wednesday) is leaning strongly to next week’s system being the end of the line for accumulating snow chances in the low ground of the East.
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COLD AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS WAVE COULD SPELL THE LAST ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
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http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd
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Not sure where they draw the line on “lower elevations,” though.
I always look forward to your weather discussion on the radio, Kevin. Weather discussed in a delightful, Southern drawl sounds so much more credible. Now if you can just predict the frost/freeze events for the next six weeks my strawberries will be happy.
Good discussion by Keith Huffman in Lynchburg (not to be confused with Allen Huffman in Raleigh) of some of the factors involved. He’s leaning against accumulating snow at this point on 2-1 odds.
http://lynchburgweather.blogspot.com/2013/03/the-march-6-hype.html
Very good point about snowfall rates … akin to my mention of timing. A light-moderate snow in the afternoon could leave little slushy accumulation, while a heavy snow 4-8 a.m. could pile up quickly.
Thaks, Strawberryman. I do need to mention that the radio spot on WVTF will NOT be airing today, taking a 1 -week break. Will return next week.
Well…it appears we are having sleet showers out here in my little valley this morning. Must be fairly isolated because I see nothing on the radar.
If it’s what I saw out my window a little bit ago, it’s more like “snow grains” or “snow pellets,” Tina. Snowflakes that slightly melt on the way down and kinda fold in on themselves. Radar had a few little dribbles a bit ago. Upslope snow action will likely pick up again tonight and Saturday with an upper-air disturbance moving through.
Adjusted the winter temps on blog post above to match NWS figures (varied a tenth) and added Blacksburg, which had its 10th warmest winter since 1952.
Heading to Giles this weekend. Will I get a chance to see some snow showers? Shows how bad winter has been once again here in Greene when I get excited about seeing snow showers! LOL
To Dougs comment on the previous thread: I hope you are right and that I get my day off next week LOL.
I believe this storm that is brewing for next week will keep all the mets on their toes for the weekend. DT keeps saying to completely ignore the GFS at this point b/c it isn’t accurate this far out and that the EURO is getting a good trend going for this storm. I think it is going to be interesting to see how it all plays out.
Kevin, while things are slow, I’ve got a question. I seem to remember reading somewhere that there was no models generated by the US that was as good as the European model. If that is a afct, how can that be with all the money the government has at their disposal, Considering that is if the models are generated by the government.
I almost changed it to “sneet” Kevin, because it didn’t look like straight sleet. It’s still spitting it out there too.
Oh, did anyone see the “fireball” (meteor) that I’m hearing about over parts of VA and NC (including Roanoke) last night? I always miss these things.
wdbrand…Your comment #25 is the $64 gazillion dollar question. Like the US Gov’t always does, it seems to waste our tax $$ somewhere else. That’s all I have to say. Maybe this sounds like a job for Dan Casey.
Speaking of models…Friday 12Z GFS seems to now think that there will be a major event next week but is very confused as usual. I’ll wait to update QWC after the 12Z Euro run. Will have a better idea then. I am now in full agreement with Kevin that the upper level energy will bring some snow across western VA but that crystal ball is still very fuzzy.
Not sure what it’ll do this weekend, Jared, but we had a dusting yesterday and it snowed sideways most of the day. There was a bigger dusting this morning that stuck to everything – even the roads and sidewalks. Keep the faith!
How deep was our rain deficit for the Roanoke Valley by the end of December? We’ve had plenty of rain so far into 2013, but have we leveled off for 2012-2013 to date?
If you’re a follower of DT, he just WOOFed
DT has a video coming out this afternoon, he must be getting really excited over this storm. He is talking heavy snow for central and northern Virginia, but have heard this song and dance before. Come Monday the storm will be rain and DT will be backpedaling and punting one again! LOL
DT woofing, even if he’s right, doesn’t necessarily mean the big dog bites SW Virginia. There’s a chance it’s a big snow to the east and something less here. Still a few days to sort this out.
DT just said “WOOF”. It always gets interesting when you get a Woof from DT. Like I said before: I think this weekend keeps the mets on their toes trying to nail this big storm down. I say “bring it on”! I’m ok with one 12+ inches of snow a year LOL
I’m told new Euro is a big hit for Virginia but moreso for central/eastern Va. That may be the woofing. Will take a look a little later.
Hope so. 2′ for JF. 18″ for Richmond, 12″ for Hampton so the clown show can start. and 2″ for us will be plenty.
I believe it shows SW Va at 12 inches plus. Still only modeling at this point but trends always trends can be friend or foe. Think we may be due one nice size snow and this may be it
Whats woof mean
DT’s posted snow map gives SWVA about 4+ inches. Central Va. gets crushed.
Hey Jared French, you can count on NOVA/DC getting pounded next week. You see I’m going to be in south Georgia all next week. The snow Gods HATE ME!!!
Everybody disregard my DP and RH readings. The hygrometer transmitter puked and have one on order. Be a few days coming in tho.
as I would like to see a big snow for me to believe woof
Wow, I’m in the 12-18 inch range! Guaranteed to not happen now for sure!
The biggest thing right now is figuring out where that low is going. I think that is what will have the biggest impact on where the most snow falls. Please correct me if I’m wrong Kevin, I’m still learning
Nurse Snow, where the low goes so goes the snow. It’s the most important part of a storm IMO. Meaning the track of the low.
What is DT exactly?
Link to DT’s site Please!
GOSL ALERT!!!
IT”S ON!
Misseurs French, Saunders and Brand…your storm awaits you beginning Tuesday night late. Western VA will be in on this as well. The farther east you are in VA and NC, the more snow. This early prediction is subject to change.
QWC will be updated thru the weekend.
Shannon “Nurse Snow”…
Correct to comment 44 above. The trickiest part of the entire forecast will be the track of the Low, where the “phasing” occurs, how much the coastal Low strengthens and how much moisture will be thrown back towards the west. It’s the combination of these factors that are the most difficult to always predict.
Will try to explain this at QWC.
Shanon: You should have known you would get your snow after your hubby took the snow blade off the tractor!
Should we be scared? Accu is using the “M” word………….Monster, for next weeks mid-Atlantic storm.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/midatlantic-snowstorm-potentia/7088979
Does anyone remember a MARCH snowstorm ever producing more snowfall on the I-95 corridor in VA than on the I-81 corridor? Don’t work to hard looking for examples. Central/Eastern VA certainly may end up with more precipitation totals than Western VA, but it will be more liquid than white. And, Jared, lest we remind you what side of the Blue Ridge you live on? Seriously, I sure hope someone in VA ends up getting crushed, but I would not bet alot of money on it being in the eastern portion.
Very light snow coming down here. It would take days for it to amount to 1″ at this rate. 37 degrees.
Typically the path of the storms change from 5 days out, so more often than not, we are better off for getting snow if we are not in the bullseye at this point.
I would love to see a nice snow, but I am going to raise hackles by saying I wo not want a MECS to impact the area, for personally selfish reasons. I’ve been working a bunch of overtime trying to get a big project wrapped up in time for a meeting next week…and a major snowstorm would almost assuredly result in that meeting being re-scheduled…meaning the lack of sleep, long hours, worked weekends, etc would all be largely for naught…as I would suddenly have several days to an extra week before the presentation. And that might turn me into a snow hater!
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Nah, just kidding, bring it! I love snow too much…
DT = Dave Tolleris, private Richmond-based meteorologist.
There’s no point linking to his web site (which is http://www.wxrisk.com) — his fresh stuff is always on his Facebook page. If you’re on Facebook, search for WxRisk.com
All I will say at this point: I think the idea of SW Virginia getting accumulating snow, but the storm blowing up into a larger, more powerful one east or northeast of us, is generally what I expect. I’m not yet sure I buy the low stalling and looping out in the Atlantic to dump these huge amounts on such a wide area of central/eastern/northern Virginia.
Lots of times and multiple variations to go on this.
Hokieburg Mike…
Does the “Storm of the Century” in March 1933 ring a bell? Much of Central VA got more snow than some areas in the west
Also March 1, 1980 was a huge storm for eastern and Central VA.
For those of you wanting the link to Dave Tolleris’s website click below for his latest info:
https://www.facebook.com/#!/WxRisk
http://wxrisk.com
I also have other links besides WxRisk.com on my website at:
http://quagmireweathercentral.webs.com
Zach…come in bro! Where are you?
Also Zach Robinson who is a resident of the WJN (Weather Journal Nation)
has a blog spot. Look for the links over on the right side of the page.
March 1993 doesn’t really fit the bill. It was generally higher in the west, tapering off to the east.
http://www.colinbeaven.com/Images/Winter%20Storms/04%20-%20March%201993%20Superstorm%20NESIS.jpg
March 1, 1980, has been trumpeted as a possible analog. It was bigger in I-95 and Tidewater than in the rest of the state. Let me look back and see what Roanoke/Blacksburg got in that one.
Blacksburg Mike, this is usually the only way we can get snow is for a storm to form off the coast and slow down! This just hasn’t really happened since 09-10!
Roanoke and Blacksburg each got 9 inches in the March 1, 1980 storm. Amounts were 12-18 inches in much of central/eastern Virginia, with some 20+ amounts in NE NC and SE Va.
You got a roof located if it don’t happen JF?
WD: You asked earlier about the GFS vs. Euro. Here’s a blog post from a meteorology professor in the Pacific Northwest, Cliff Mass, taking on the subject.
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2013/02/the-us-weather-prediction-computer-gap.html
Mass often has out-of-the-box takes on many weather/climate subjects.
Oh oh. Accuweather was calling for a East Coast Monster Storm Risk for next week?!!? (Rick, comment 10 at 6:18 this morning) That seals it …. probably no snow here …. LOL At least it wasn’t Henry Margusity, so maybe it will happen.
Meanwhile, I think I can hear Lyndsay Tapases celebrating. She is a “met” for WSET-13, and she easily beat the NWS and WDBJ7 for the high temp in ROA today, which so far is only 41. “7″ did reduce their forecast high from 48 to 47 on the early morning weathercasts, but they still missed badly. She also kicked derriere for the Hokieburg forecast. She went with 39, actual so far is 37, and the NWS and 7 were about 43.
Right now, NWS has my area west of Blacksburg with 60% rain/sleet Tues and 50% mix Tues night with temp Tues of 43*
And that’s exactly the direction the GFS is going — milder, wetter storm, less snow. Euro/Canadian/British (UKMet) big on the blizzard — the latter 2 more west toward us than the Euro.
I think I’m going to be ready for spring after this storm, whatever it does.
I ‘ve stated many times that I don’t give a rat about what it does. I’ve also stated that the incompentcy of NOAA and the NWS should be criminal. You generally find yourself defending them, why I don’t know. You are not employed by them or have to answer to them. They are for the most part idiots. Any forecast they issue beyond 24 hours is a joke. You find that acceptable? You don’t have near the tools at your disposal they do, but get the job done much better. As far as US models go, why are they even allowed in a weather prediction? A truly sad state of affairs for the US. I know there are some mighty good weathermen out there, but, they aren’t in a position to over ride ignorance, so we end up with what we have time and time again. I’m glad none of them were on duty for “D” Day.
Wow, so no Kevin on the radio an hour ago …. is that the first time this winter that you were not on the air, KM? If so, that may be a sign of a real snowstorm.
…….. listen to me ….. I am grabbing at straws, just like the ice cubes down the toilet and wearing “jammies” inside out shenanigans of certain, delightful snow lovers.
You may be ready for spring, Kevin, but even you cannot always get what you want …. :>) :>)
Hey, I’m in DC, you had a very funny comment (#40 at 2:27 PM). But weren’t you living in the District in early 2010, also? If so, you need to further clarify your statement about the snow gods hating you by adding the phrase “for the last 3 winters.” Unless you were out of town for the humongous snowstorm in early Feb 2010 that buried Washington, DC. (at least I think that was when it happened). ROA got 9 inches, DC had at least double that much. Please help me out with the details, Kevin.
WD: Have you personally met more than half the people that work for the National Weather Service? How can you say that “They are for the most part idiots.” Issuing a sweeping judgment of a group of people you have never met? Wow. Is most of VDOT idiots because I hit a pothole? Are the linemen who work for Appalachian Power idiots because my power goes out sometimes?
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Among the people I know at the National Weather Service, which is far far far less than half, maybe a dozen, none of them are idiots. Zero.
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As for the NWS as an organization — I’m sure it suffers the same deficiencies and problems many government bureaucracies do. I’m sure the folks WITHIN the weather service know far more about those problems than those outside do. Some of those problems originate on Capitol Hill.
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It’s apples and oranges comparing what I do to what they do. I make no effort to issue point-specific hour-to-hour, day-to-day forecasts on temperature, for instance. We talk about weather and I throw out a few ideas of what might happen.
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I don’t know that I would defend the organization as a whole, mainly because I don’t know enough about its inner workings. But I will defend the local-level meteorologists doing their work to forecast and warn on a day-to-day basis. If their tools or upper-level support are insufficient, it’s not their fault.
About the 3-1-1980 snowstorm. I was in Charlottesville for a 3-month stay, and I am pretty sure that Cavalier-ville got about 5 inches, maybe 6.
Mushroom cloud forms over the Knob …..
Thanks for the link on models Kevin. Even if he’s given to hype, he sure did back up his presentation with some mighty offical looking charts. Good read and another look at how it’s done.
Just checked the web cam at Snoeshoes Shaver`s Centre it is total whiteout conditions up there.Would love to be up there this weekend!Jared thats where you need to be if you want to see some great snow.Low this morning was 36.High was 42,back down to 37 now.I guess the big issue is the chance for a snowstorm next Tuesday night Wednesday morning.I`m like Jared not buying it at all.All winter its always 5 days out with a chance for a big snow,has not happened up here yet.Guess we`ll have to wait and see.
Hi Doug Griggs Comment #70 i had 30 inches here in Marshall during that storm.It was Sweet!
WD…
One of those weather forecasters
was an advisor to Eisenhower.
Chief Meteorologist J.M. Stagg.
It was his forecast that showed a brief opportunity
for a beach landing on Jun 6.
His forecast was right..The beach landing you might say
was successful .
Id say the guys who got paid to assess the weather in
those days did a good job.
Science by virtue of what science is improves itsself over time.
wdbrand…
????
Relax and enjoy happy hour man. It’s not the NWS’s fault. The problem with the GFS is that NOAA & the Department of Commerce perfer to put the funding into higher priority projects such as Doppler radars, satellites, climate research and severe weather. They do use the Euro and other global models too in their forecasting. So why not put $$ into improving the GFS when there are other models available. I can’t answer that and I don’t know. NWS Idiots? NO! I will defend the NWS in that they are the best at nowcasting and issuing severe weather warnings. I agree that something needs to be done with the GFS but to blame the NWS…not right man. NWS’s primary mission is to alert the public and attempt to save lives…not worry about why their model sucks snowballs beyond 90 hours. Sorry for the rant dude…but the GFS is not the only model the NWS and NOAA use.
WD, what you are probably seeing is the same problem as any other government run institution, medicare, social security, etc. The ideas may be good, the people trying to make them work may be great people, but somehow government run industry just does not work well. But, have hope, now we get to have healthcare run by the government.
This looks to be rain to me ln the new gfs
But to defend the mushroom cloud on top of da Knob…
The 18Z GFS proves your rant is correct in one sense…The GFS is a terrible model especially at the 06Z and 18Z runs…
Ignore the 18Z GFS as it shows a complete miss for VA with the next storm.
Don’t panic folks…
Probably one of the worst comments I’ve read on this blog WD. I echo Kevin and Quags’ sentiments.
Kevin, there was a post that explained the differences in computers used for weather modeling here in US vs other countries, I think it was DTs facebook page, but someone here noted it. That article was very insightful as to why there is such discrepancies.
Will issue this here, just in case: I’m fine with conversation here that is politics-neutral in discussing how government bureaucracy can be a problem with the NWS. Do not want it to cross into specific blaming of particular politicians/parties.
@ Trev # 65, If the NWS is saying 60% chance at 4 days out, that’s showing a lot of confidence for the always annoyingly conservative NWS.
@ Trevar # 54, I completely agree!
@ Quags, Your optimism is always refreshing! Keep beatin the drum brutha!!!
I read this blog the most out of anything on this site, let’s keep politics and the mudslinging out of it. Mr Casey’s blog is that way ======>
I have met at least a half dozen weathermen, tho none at the national level and those I met have been compitent, but hamstrung on what they know opposed to what they are fed to report. Not about them. In the higher levels of the NWS and NOAA is where the problem is. They are dictated to and told what they can and can’t do. That’s where the problem is. Standard government BS. I have been told by two Roanoke meteorolgists that they are allowed to tweak a forecast issued by the NWS but not allowed to change it to apply to local conditions. Does that sound like a competent orgination to you. You know many more than I do. How about the heads of the orgs? If you do, ask the same questions I’m refering to and then report the answer. Nobody us better qualified to report or weather than the folks responsible for it every day and live here.Sorry, you’re whipping a dead horse on any defense of the present forecasting system. Take a stroll over to the scientific forecast discussion on wunderground and read it. Always go to the safe side. Seems like I remember a storm not long ago that they did the same thing. I never believe in hollering boo, but at least a heads up that folks might be looking at a life threating situation isn’t hollering boo. The idiots are the ones who roll over and play dead because they won’t make waves.
Doug, “the Mushroom cloud forms over the Knob…” comment made me laugh out aloud
From WxSouth’s Facebook page…Robert has this comment…
“Exactly 4 years ago from today another Low was blasting through Georgia and the Carolinas, about to go up the East Coast. It had a 3 contour cutoff and turned negative tilt producing a major snowstorm from Georgia to the Northeast.”
https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk#!/photo.php?fbid=594626470567412&set=a.358160627547332.99358.356106867752708&type=1&theater
History repeating itself?
There are those here that have an unusual
fear or distrust of airports. Im not sure where that comes from.
I think its a Luddite thing.
Im not sure…but some very irrational rantings occasionally
pop up here from time to time.
Wide , sweeping, all encompassing ones…
Here is a bit about the “Chaos Theory” also known as the Butterfly Effect..
…we can only use the best equipment we have..and as humans do the
best we can with it.
The fact that we can sit at home..wherever we are…and discuss this
at lightning speed is all the testament I need as to the value.
An early pioneer of the theory was Edward Lorenz whose interest in chaos came about accidentally through his work on weather prediction in 1961.[5] Lorenz was using a simple digital computer, a Royal McBee LGP-30, to run his weather simulation. He wanted to see a sequence of data again and to save time he started the simulation in the middle of its course. He was able to do this by entering a printout of the data corresponding to conditions in the middle of his simulation which he had calculated last time.
To his surprise the weather that the machine began to predict was completely different from the weather calculated before. Lorenz tracked this down to the computer printout. The computer worked with 6-digit precision, but the printout rounded variables off to a 3-digit number, so a value like 0.506127 was printed as 0.506. This difference is tiny and the consensus at the time would have been that it should have had practically no effect. However Lorenz had discovered that small changes in initial conditions produced large changes in the long-term outcome.[30] Lorenz’s discovery, which gave its name to Lorenz attractors, showed that even detailed atmospheric modelling cannot in general make long-term weather predictions. Weather is usually predictable only about a week ahead.[13]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_theory
Dave Wert, the meteorologist-in-chief at the NWS-Blacksburg is the highest level official I know, WD. Not remotely an idiot. Absolutely one of the most impressive and competent individuals you’ll ever meet. But then … maybe that’s why he’s chosen to stay in Blacksburg this long and not go on to a DC job.
It seems to me that local TV mets these days go quite a bit off the NWS grid often. Remember all the controversy here about Channel 7 lowballing the NWS forecasted amounts during the Jan. 17 winter storm warning? And Doug notes today Lyndsey Tapases at Channel 13 outpredicting the weather service on high temperatures. Sometimes they’re right, sometimes they’re wrong.
Re Quagmire Post 89: I actually thought about March 1, 2009, as having some similarities to this event in terms of the “bowling ball” upper low rolling across the South.
Looks like this one will be a spare, maybe even a strike…pun intended! wink-wink! nudge-nudge!
Hoping we get lots of snow from this one. Although I love Floyd County, I miss the snow we used to get in coastal Massachusetts. 2010 was my favorite winter here so far.
Brief story about the respect that the Blacksburg NWS office gets in the meteorology field (true respect, not mocking). I had the privilege of visiting the NWS headquarters in Silver Spring one summer. It was a slow weather day – there was a hurricane heading towards the Caribbean and we got to see the communications and the back and forth of interpreting the models that was going on between the Miami hurricane center and the national office (which was super cool) but otherwise the meteorologists had time to talk to us. They showed us model runs and how they interpreted them, they showed us historical data and models, they showed us the emergency food they keep stocked so that when a weather situation blows up in a hurry they can stay in the office for hours and hours. Then they noticed my name tag, which also listed my hometown of Blacksburg. I got surrounded.. They wanted to know if I had been to the NWS office in Blacksburg, what I thought of the forecasts that come out of that office, and a couple of them said they wished they were able to move to Blacksburg because of the CHALLENGE! “Blacksburg is where people go who want a challenge.” “The hardest area in the country to predict the weather is the Southern Appalachians.” That’s what they told me. And it was true respect, they weren’t making fun.
To Todd: comment 88. TYVM. Glad you thought it had some humor, which was my intent.
Well, thanks folks for the lively discussions tonight. And right at dinnertime no less.
Interesting, Patricia. Thanks very much for that insight. I was told that Boston and San Fran were also very challenging, because of all the water around them. Boston and Cape Cod area of Mass. can be very tricky during a snowstorm, because the ocean water can turn the snow into sleet or rain right at the coast (which happened during …. forgive me for saying it ….. “Nemo”) But that comment about SF and BOS I heard decades ago (“Before electricity” as Rodney Dangerfield said hysterically in the movie Caddy Shack), when the radars were rude, crude, and (maybe?) socially unacceptable.
#90 Joe, thanks for that, it is very interesting. Way back when, I majored in Math and Engineering, so I can appreciate the numbers problem. What is even more interesting, computer calculations may use precision such as 0.506127, but the instruments measuring the original data may only be capable of measuring 0.5, a problem one of my professors always harped on. Don’t try to calculate beyond the precision of your data. Also, my theory on one of the problems computer modeling faces, is we can only input a finite amount of data, or variables, while in the real world, the number of variables is infinite.
Hey, Bea, what town in Mass were you from? I was born in Melrose, and returned to Mass briefly in the late 70s (just in time for the epic Blizzard of ’78!) and lived in Arlington. And when did you live in Mass most recently? My sisters have told me that they have had some monster winters up there in the last 20 years.
Lets get back to weather i want at least a foot…who is with me?
Kevin…. I have noticed you have spent several days lately away from the blog…. has this winter been that exhausting??
Back to weather. I just found out that Nashville Tenn has been getting my version of the “C” letter winter storm. They have been getting sleet and light snow, and maybe some freezing rain (sound familiar?). Yep, they are getting Winter Storm Crap. That system is supposed to affect not only eastern Tenn., but also NW NC and even Grayson County/Highlands.
I am with you and would take two feet and be quite happy.
It has been an exhausting winter, Flutie, because of the constant pitter-patter of minor borderline/mixed storm systems — storms you have to pay attention to, but are pretty unsatisfying both in terms of readers’ experiences and clarity in forecasting.
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But the main reason I’ve been away from the blog a lot during daytime hours is simply because I have both a 3-year-old son and a 75-year-old widowed mother to attend to quite often.
Tagging on to Patricia’s remarks on comment #95, the Hokieburg NWS office meteorologists have been good to me. I do some big events on campus and many are outdoors. At times when threatening weather has been forecast and I need to make a weather call, I’ve called them and talked to them personally to discuss the severity and timing. In mid-May 2006, I spoke with them early in the morning about the thunderstorms forecast and they advised to move the event indoors because of some severe weather to come. So I made the decision to move it indoors. All during set-up, the sun was shining and everyone was asking why it was going to be indoors. But around 1 PM, right when the band was to take stage, a tremendous storm blew through with high winds and horizontal rain. NWS and I were vindicated in that call. As we watched this from the big windows, others were going “wow, how’d you know that?” and I had to give credit to the NWS.
I completely understand that Kevin…. I think its amazing how you juggle your family, job, and blog like you do….your dedication doesn’t go unnoticed. … thanks again
I just looked at today’s polar view generated on Allen Huffman’s blog, and there are two new and pro-snow features. Green air has come out of nowhere (OK, exaggeration; it spread west from Scotland/Ireland/ just east of Iceland) and is sweeping over the southern edge of Greenland! Maybe a weak “block?”
And also, the blue air over the eastern USA has spread NE, created a shade of darker blue over the Northeast (NY State and New England), and that may form a 50-50 low. ?? The less-great news for snow lovers is that the strongest vortex continues to be on the north coast of Russia, and the one vortex on the Canadian side seems to have weakened just a bit, and is very far north, almost to the North Pole.
kevin of turkeycock mt. I’m with you too. At least a foot. We’ve earned it!!
Thanks for all of your knowledge Kevin…you and others of the WJN(weather journal nation)!!! I gain a lot from this blog:)
Wow. And I mean really WOW. I just read through one of the links to Accuweather discussion (by Alex Sisnowski) of what may happen along the eastern states next week, and there it was, halfway down. Alex quotes Accu’s chief meteorologist Eliot Abrams: “There may be similarities to a storm which affected much of the same area around March 6, 1962.” THAT was the mostruous Nor’easter called the Ash Wednesday Nor’easter that I got to learn a lot about at the Manteo, NC museum years ago. He cannot be serious, I hope. That storm absolutely decimated the Outer Banks and coastal New Jersey. 5 high tides swept into Kitty Hawk, NC.
Just curious, what phase is the MJO in & what phase is it projected to be in next week?
MJO in Phase 6 and expected to stay there next 15 days. Generally speaking, on the wrong side of the line from what you would expect for East Coast winter storms (Phases 1,2,7,8) but this is not an absolute determiner.
Doug: Mentioning 1962 in new blog post, going up very soon.
Phew – been away from the blog today and come back and there are 110 comments. Had to speed read through them all. I guess we know that there will be a “low” but we just aren’t sure where it will go next week – correct. I know too well all of the hype about the “big un” when it is discussed this far out but like Kevin has said – wait till about 2 days out and you will be able to tell more about what is going to happen and where it will happen. So we will see on Sunday what everyone is saying. Jared, I have a feeling you should have been careful what you wish for this winter.
Bea – so I guess you are in Floyd County? What area? do you know your elevation?
so can someone tell me what it means when DT goes woof??
Kris: He is saying the “big dog” is going to happen and imitating a bark.
Good Evening, well we are under another WWA until 1 pm tomorrow here in Washington Co. I guess those 14 flakes I just saw as I drove home will qualify for the advisory based on this winter’s history. This winter has been the ultimate tease. A bit of snow, a bit of sleet, a bit of freezing rain, a bit of rain, a bit of snizzle. I have decided I know what the forecast is for the coming week. Everyone listen closely – 100% probability of weather. No guessing, no anticipation just pure truth. That makes all the models easier to read and understand. So everyone, enjoy the weather and I guarantee it will happen.
Know KM has a new blog post up but i’d be remiss in not endorsing NWS Blacksburg Office. I have the pleasure of working with myriad of their mets at all times of the day/night. Their level of professionalism is unsurmounted. While I accept, in some cases, they may be conservative, their forthright point forecasts and discussions are incredible.
Thanks kevin
Doug G,
I’m from Gloucester, Ma. Blizzard of 78 was something, trucks had to bring food and water and my brothers would go with the sleds to get it. Last month the kids missed two days after they got the blizzard, here in Floyd, it would have been a month!