Lengthy cold pattern sets in Wed. PM
Ice accretion reports from around the region (linked here) reveal a couple of eye-popping numbers, such as 0.75-inch at Meadows of Dan in Patrick County, the same at Quinwood, W.Va. (which will probably be among the highest snowfall numbers in a few days) and 1 inch at one location in Watauga County, N.C. Most amounts were in the 0.10 to 0.25 range. It appears there were some larger amounts than those listed in Floyd County and the Bent Mountain area of southern Roanoke County. As serious as the ice got a in a few locations, this could have easily been a much more widespread and severe ice storm with just a little bit stronger cold air damming rather than the retreating and eroding wedge that existed. It wasn’t far off from being that.
Attention now turns to a prolonged below-normal temperature regime that will set up over the southern and eastern U.S. as high pressure over Canada traps Arctic air to the south. This will begin to take hold in Southwest Virginia late Wednesday, when the westernmost of two low-pressure systems with the complex system that brought us rain and ice Tuesday drags a cold front through. Some showers — first rain as highs climb into the 40s and 50s, later snow — may break out with this frontal passage. The low is going to lollygag east-northeastward through the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, so its circulation will be whipping in a cold, windy northwest flow Thursday into the weekend. That flow lifting over the mountains will trigger a lengthy period of upslope snow showers and squalls, dropping several inches over 2-3 days in West Virginia’s mountains, and spreading periods of accumulating snow into the mountains west of Interstate 77 and near the Virginia-West Virginia border as well. At times, these snow showers will even creep into the New River Valley and perhaps even the Roanoke Valley, possibly enhanced a bit at times as some hard-to-time weak disturbances move through the northwest flow. Temperatures will move downward, with 30s/40s highs and teens/20s lows Thursday through early next week, at least. Normal high/low for late February/early March are mid 40s/mid 20s at Blacksburg and low 50s/low 30s for Roanoke — we could be about 10 degrees below those by the weekend.
There are two more substantial disturbances moving through to monitor for some potential of more widespread snow in or near our region. The first pushes through on Saturday, likely zipping somewhat to our south across the Carolinas. A second one, likely stronger, may stir up a low-pressure system and cold front toward the Monday night-Tuesday period of next week. Just file that away in the back of your mind for the moment until more details become clearer.
February 26, 2013 - 8:37 PM
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My temps are now up to 34 and there is lots of fog out there. Ice is still melting and falling off of the trees.
Okay Kevin, I have that Mon-Tues system filed away but it still has me a bit concerned. I think we are due one more snow before winter is over.
Headed to get my snow fix for the winter this weekend at Snowshoe. Expecting a steady light snow, with about a foot on the ground. If any of you folks need a snow fix, just drive 3ish hours northwest and you’ll get it…guaranteed! For all the forum members who frequent the area, for weather or whatever, there’s an offer until March 1 which is a season pass for the rest of this year, plus all of next year, and also 20% off lodging and 10% off restaurants/ stores. Bought mine and headed NW bound Friday morning.
Looks like the Grayson Highlands will pick up at least 12″ between Wednesday night and Monday morning. A true upslope-a-thon.
Matt – we all renewed our season pass last week. It’s a great deal for sure. We are heading up Friday morning as well for one last fun weekend…and has been our luck this year weather is looking great!
As for local, we basically doubled our monthly rain total with .87 today. Currently 39.1 which is the high for the day.
Kevin, I read through your “post” above, but am surprised that you didn’t use a hyphenized word that Blacksburg Mike just used in comment 3″: “upslope-a-thon.” I had never seen or heard that word/phrase BKM (Before Kevin Myatt). I am sure that you are right about the Grayson Highlands, Mike, considering your knowledge of that area. But the forecast models I have seen on TV and even one on TWC (I think) all show that the Alleghenys of SE West Virginia are going to get a load of them. New acronym by the COLC: “QUAT.” Equals Quinwood Upslope A Thon. Do you like it Kevin? And others?
Definitely, Snowshoe is a great place to get your snow fix – we were up there last weekend and got the season passes too. Matt – word of warning – the line for the passes was out the door for much of the weekend – I only waited in line about a half hour by going at 8:00 am when they opened.
Rats ….. I was off the blog early this evening, and now the ECT man (wd) is prob’ly asleep. I will ask the question anyway. Did you intentionally leave the seeds in your vest, or did you pull one of my favorite tricks, a senior moment? Tide-flavored sprouts …. love it.
Wow, no drought in New England. They have had three snowstorms in the past 18 days or so, including a mammoth one in some spots, and now the 3-day rainfall map shows parts of that region getting up to 1.86 inches. They probably have to worry about flooding in some areas.
Polar vortex update. Kevin has already mentioned this: there is a concentric circle of blue (cold) air in Missouri and Arkansas, sort of like a cutoff low. The colors elsewhere in the USA east of the Rockies are all green (except yellow in FLA). This is my first season of looking at the polar view maps regularly, and I do not remember seeing that in the CONUS before. The other feature that caught my eye is that a finger of bright yellow (very warm) air is stretching from southern Norway and SW through Scotland and the waters north of it. Looks like it is trying to reach Greenland. If it does, I think that means a Greenland block and it might be “GAME ON, SNOW LOVERS” in a Captain Quag comment.
Probably unlikely to happen.
Same situation in Blue Ridge as Brian reported in Goodview (Comment #4) – doubled my Feb rainfall with 0.85 today. Was somewhat surprised to see Roanoke picking up substantially more than I did today(1.27 inches according to the 3-Day History link on the NWS website). Temp made it up to 40 earlier this evening…standing at 38 now with some dense fog developing.
40 partly cloudy degrees here. Gorgeous setting moon in the west. 1.2 inches of rain in the gauge.
Doug – I actually got “upslope a thon” from KM – he used it once before this winter. By the way, make that 18″ now through Monday night in Grayson Highlands!
33 and I guess we just had one of those “up-slope-a-thons” go through. A light dusting on the porch railings and on the flower garden mulch.
Well I’m not going to go all out with “GOSL” (Game on Snow Lovers) just yet with the March 6-7 event but the Wednesday 0Z Euro operational run says so. I tend to agree with the astute postman above in comment 9. Quick break down…
Rest of the week…QSM…Quinwood Snow Machine gets turned on with upslope snow showers and flurries.
This weekend’s event will be a weak light snow amount 1-4″ but the track may be a little east and south for western VA to see the higher amounts of snow. It may not get its act together until it reaches the coast before going to stir up the fish.
March 6 is still there but as usual, Euro says BIG UN per the 0z runs from this morning and the GFS is being the quiet wife that says not that much. Updating blog at QWC to go into further discussion about March 6-7.
Peace out time to fly…
Kevin looks like some of the models are hinting at a big snow next week. This has happened numerous times this winter and proven to be wrong however the law of averages are liable to catch us one of these times. Looks like it will be cold for the next two to three weeks as well . Your thoughts
Bombs away on 0Z Euro next week.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS192.gif
If that verified (previous frame has low over Atlanta with marginally cold air banked east of I-77), more places than just Grayson Highlands would get 12+.
Enjoy it, snow lovers, for 1 model run before it changes again. I still think something significant may happen next week. Doubtful, as usual, that it will be this monstrous.
I guess I should have reprised “upslope-a-thon.” Whether or not the system Saturday triggers widespread light snow for the rest of us (GFS had some), its passage will renew the upslope flow after a brief lull.
Well the tide has changed a bit. No more cold air wedged in your neck of the woods. Its our turn I suppose. Just took my morning mile walk here in Abingdon. It is 36 and windy. Air has a real bite to it. This will be followed by rain/snow through Sunday beginning tonight. I expect some accumulation as the week progresses. Maybe March will come in like a lion so it can out like a lamb.
Doppler Gal, please check your e-mails. I am planning on sending you one.
with a GO,SL! announcement until no more than 84 hours (3-and-a-half days) before the expected start time, if indeed you think a widespread (at least) moderate snowstorm is likely. I must admit that I now get a kick (I felt the exact opposite 2+ years ago) out of seeing you issue that saying, and have missed it this winter.
Capitan El Quagmiro: I hope that you refrain from going “postal” …. check that, “aerial!” ….
And I must admit that at least so far, the statements by Jared, Scott S., and Blacksburg Mike bemoaning the lack of any widespread 6+ inch events (especially for you, JJF!) this winter have been very accurate. Congratulations, guys. Seriously. Trying for some of us to read, at times, but nevertheless your skepticism about snowstorms this winter have been justified.
Both ROA and Bburg are slightly cooler than normal for FEB with only two days left, and will probably remain that way. Warmer than normal today offset by colder than normal tomorrow. The huge story is the precipitation. ROA and Bburg are at 9+ inches of rainfall equiv. already, which is more than 2.5 inches above normal. Maybe we got this much in 2010 through FEB, but I doubt it. This situation of being wet through February YTD is completely opposite of what has happened in the vast majority of years starting with 2000. Many years both cities have been down 2 and even 3 inches through FEB, when only a bit less than 7 is the norm.
This winter, our storms (or at least snow-producing events) have gone like this for measurable snow/sleet (at my house anyway):
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<1.0" 5
1-2" 4
2-6" 0
6"+ 1
We've also had 17 days with snow flurries and showers via the upslope machine or on the backside of a system, but that did not accumulate measurably.
I just want 1 decently-big snow!
Hey Kevin what’s the weekend setting up like maybe some snow???
KM, are you hinting that the roof jumper might actually have a chance at getting his wish this winter?
The front page changed to the new beta site and Kevin got dissed! The link to the weather blog is no longer on the front page! First you have to click on more blogs then once you click on the weather blog you have to click on the comments. In other words you have to go through three pages to read the blog entries. I hope we don’t lose comments because people can’t find us any more. I hope they make it easier in the future.
For one time, I would like to see a definition of rhe Atlantic region in relation to what part of VA and what area is called. Mid-Atlantic, Central Atlantic Upper Atlantic??????????? Seems to cover a lot of real estate and is most confusing. Where are the property lines for the definitions? Or does anybody even know?
Leo Lady: I wasn’t dissed. I’m always linked in the upper right hand corner of every page on the new Roanoke.com — separate from the other blog links.
I will discuss a bit more about thoughts on the weekend and next week later, though I touch on them in blog post above.
wdbrand…here ya go:
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http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&ved=0CDIQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cara.psu.edu%2Fmara%2Fresults%2Foverview_report%2FChapter02.pdf&ei=O2YuUbeVFsLq0wG_jIGgCQ&usg=AFQjCNGVz5eWI5w0R4ghX5ED-7Aq1ArSmA
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Sorry for the ugliness of the link…hopefully it works, goes to a PDF, defining the Mid-Altantic region as the northeast quadrant of NC, VA, WV, PA, MD, DC, DE, southern NJ (along with the far western part bordering PA), and the upper end of the Appalachians in NY around Binghamton.
wd, as a northerner I always considered VA as the southern part of the “Mid Atlantic” region. Now I need your mountain expertise….I know Roanoke is west of the BRP, but is the city considered part of the Blue Ridge Mountains or a valley that seperates the Blue Ridge from the “Ridge & Valley” region? It always gets hazey when I read the NWS forecast discussions and they don’t name Roanoke specifically (Am I east, west or a valley in the Blue Ridge?) . Any one can chime in here…help a yankee out.
That whole Mid-Atlantic thing is a big can of worms, with definitions varying some source to source. I once had an email from someone indignant that I would dare refer to Roanoke as the Mid-Atlantic when we were the “Upper South.” The Associated Press stylebook actually does not include Virginia in the Mid-Atlantic.
I only use the term Mid-Atlantic when something is truly going to effect the entire region all the way to the coast and northward. I specify Virginia or Southwest Virginia or Western Virginia at other times, or even refer to central/southern Appalachians (we’re sorta between them).
I see snow listed in our long range forecast for next Tuesday night and Wednesday.
To be on the safe side, I will be draining the fuel out of our snowblower and storing it in the back of the shed. Doug, I need you to take off whatever curse you put on us a couple years ago (I think it involved tire chains in the trunk of your car) Jared, I need you to cut it out with them negative waves.
Growing up in Virginia Beach, we heard a lot of Mid-Atlantic references, which makes sense for the east coast areas of the state. But since moving out here, I have not used that to describe this region. I don’t really see the definition from the Penn State link as valid, in my humble estimation…for western VA, WV, western PA, or southern NY…basically, the spine of the Appalachians. That to me has always been a region unto itself.
The mid Atlantic region does not include any area in PA or NJ. Or for that matter, any area around that bunch in DC. That’s a classic example of a bunch of yankees wantin to be included in our southern area. Forecasters calls for the mid Atlantic region to get a biggen, and anything that falls from Ga. to Pa. is called a hit. I call it a joke.
Funny, wd — the guy who emailed me suggested that the Mid-Atlantic only included “yankee” states and including Virginia in it was an effort to try to annex a Southern state into a Northern region. That’s why he advocated “Upper South” which I had never heard of as a region until then.
North-South isn’t a battle I fight on here.
Ah, regional distinctions.
Some people I talk to in my native state of Arkansas don’t consider Virginia the South because its latitude is north of that of Arkansas — the northern border of Arkansas lines up about with the southern border of Virgina. But lots of people in Virginia I’ve talked to don’t consider Arkansas the South, but instead the Midwest.
Folks in Alabama don’t consider either the South — or Tennessee, for that matter. Or Florida.
I don’t consider Northern VA part of VA. It should be its own state.
If those people spoke to my relatives and friends who live in Arkansas, they’d for sure change their mind and label it as a southern state…. attitudes, accent, you name it, they are about as southern as it gets!
I have the unique combination of having had parents who lived in New York for a lot of their lives and then I was born and raised in Virginia. Having this combination really makes me appreciate both the North and the South. I love both areas equally to be honest.
As for VA, I would consider them to be in the mid-Atlantic, especially from the Blue Ridge Parkway points east. West of there is up for discretion and could be considered Mid-Atlantic, Appalachia, or just some other name. To me, the Mid-Atlantic is actually a neutral region that divides the North and the South…almost like the middle colonies back in the 18th century.
I would consider Arkansas a hybrid state. More so part of the South though as opposed to the Midwest.
I love the Civil War and all its history. It’s best not to harshly categorize Northerners as Yankees or Southerners as Rednecks because it simply isn’t universally true. Unfortunately, most people will sensationalize these days and use those labels. Both regions have each something unique to offer! And VA is simply fantastic because it has a diverse array of options. Like what John said about Northern VA as well.
As for other regions of the nation, I think the Midwest has a lot to offer. Some people label it as boring, but I think it is the anchor of our nation in many ways with a lot of genuine people. I love Chicago! And there are some great scenes in the Midwest. Denver is awesome! As for the Rockies, I love those too. Really the only parts of the nation I have yet to experience are the West (as in west of the Rockies, the Pacific Northwest, and extreme Northern New England, but I have been to Boston before, just not north of there).
Sorry…according to NOAA there is
no such animal as Mid Atlantic..
There are 9 regions..
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/us-climate-regions.php
Kevin, I have not been to Arkansas yet, but it is a state I’m heavily interested in visiting! I would love to hike the Ozarks (I hear they’re just like the Appalachians and in fact are broken off from them) and see the scenery.
But what else is there? Does Little Rock have lots of attractions and things to do? How about Fayetteville or where you grew up in Jonesboro? I think you grew up in Jonesboro, right? That’s where Arkansas State is? Kevin, you are now my travel advisor for the state of Arkansas!
Back to weather: Looking at next week, almost all of the models have some version of the Tues-Wed. system crossing the South/Midwest and then reforming or intensifying off the East Coast. The details of placement and strength of the system vary considerably, and at this stage, aren’t that important.
Not seeing much indication that this weekend will be a big deal, perhaps a period of enhanced snow showers moving out of the mountains for a time.
I’m thinking that if Little Rock is an option, I could also visit Memphis, St. Louis, and Kansas City. Now here’s a weird capital for ya: Jefferson City! Why the heck is that the capital of Missouri?!?! For central location in the state?! It seems to be in the middle of nowhere and is hard to get to and offers nothing for travellers! But who knows?
Kevin, is the potential there for something big next week?
With Arkansas, Nick, draw a diagonal line from SW corner to NE corner. Northwest of that line is hilly, rugged terrain, some of it even reminiscent of a 1/2 to 2/3 scale version of the Appalachians. Southeast of that line is mostly flat terrain, swamps or cleared agricultural terrain.
Arkansas tourism in a nutshell: Dig for diamonds at Murfreesboro. Float or hike along the Buffalo National River. Arkansas River under your feet at the overlook at Petit Jean Mountain (and a big waterfall-cut canyon in the middle of it). Spend a day at Eureka Springs, an eclectic town in the Ozarks. Clinton Library in Little Rock, interesting regardless of your political persuasion. Queen Wilhelmina or Mount Magazine for mountaintop lodging and dining. Blanchard Springs Caverns for some incredible underground scenery.
Traveling the vast middle of the nation as I do each spring with the VT storm chasers, I can tell you there’s lots of interesting things off the interstates in those states people write off as “boring” or “flyover” states.
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There will probably be a big low-pressure system somewhere, Flutie. Models today kinda scoot it out to sea. Wrap it up a bit earlier and it could be a pretty big winter storm event closer to us.
Next week may be the last, best chance SW Virginia has at a widespread 4+ snowstorm for another 9 months or more. As I’ve said before, only about 1 in 5 of these potential snowstorm windows a week out actually yield a widespread winter storm warning-level event.
****Not weather related***
Nick: I was born and raised in Jefferson City. The capital was once loacted in St. Charles near St. Louis, but was moved to Jefferson City because it served as a midpoint between the two major buisness hubs of Missouri: Kansas City and St. Louis. Situated right on the Missouri River lawyers and politicians from both cities had a middle point to meet at which allowed for a more fluid/efficent state goverment process.
Other than family, the only thing to miss from that town is watching the full form of a supercell thunderstorm take shape over the plains. Breathtaking.
wd “Tide sprouts” Brand, I basically agree with you about the Mid-Atlantic. Binghamton NY and maybe even parts of PA in the Mid-Atlantic?!?!?! No way. They are the Northeast. I can sort of go along with Delaware and the Eastern Shore of MD, but to me the Mid-Atlantic is Virg. and BOTH of the Carolinas, although I am definitionally wrong about “Soused” Carolina as my dad used to call it.
) for the winter of 2010-11 only. They are in the garage. I think.
John from R-ville ….. you can’t blame this winter or the one a year ago on my unopened tire chains. They were in my car (and worked pretty darn well, thank you!!
wd, you really ought to park that “Yankee” term in your cupboard and use it only with friends and family. Like “redneck (although that word is even stronger in evoking negative reactions)” it is a word that can anger folks. I am OK with being called a “Yankee”, because I really am not one, but I know plenty of others who are not.
Kevin what is the highest elevation in Arkansas and do they get any snow?
Mr. Griggs, you and all other yankees will just have to get over it. I callem like I seeum. Being a transplant that’s grandfathered in doesn’t allow you to try to change attitudes or speech habits. Sorry Mr. Griggs, you are yankee to the core.
Kevin: 2,753 feet is the highest elevation on Mount Magazine. Average annual snowfall in most of the state is single digits per year, but the high terrain of the Ozarks gets clocked by a big wet snow (locally 12+) every 3-4 years or so. Actually, the Christmas Blizzard dumped unusually high amounts of snow on central and northeastern sections this winter. Roanoke is still trailing Little Rock a couple of inches this season.
I think I need to ask that we back off the regional pejoratives. I don’t want this blog to degenerate into a bunch of name-calling based on where people are from. Self-identification is one thing, labeling others is another.
Changing the subject, KM… going back to the upslope machine beginning to crank up, could you guesstimate the amount of snow to fall at Quinwood and/or Snowshoe in the next 4 or 5 days? I can’t wait to get my snow fix for the year! OH by the way (off topic) Uncle Kracker is playing a concert outside in the village (and in the snow) at Snowshoe Saturday night for $25 per person. 3 hour drive Roanokers…. come on up!
I would probably say 12-18 inches at this point. Probably not the heaviest upslope event we’ve seen, and there will be some lulls.
Keep an eye on radar tonight, folks, there’s a band of rain and snow showers moving in from the west. This is not upslope stuff and may advance eastward beyond the mountains.
I’m from the Hokie Nation which is comprised of everywhere there are Hokies. That’s my region. I’m not a native Hokieburger but I got here as fast as I could.
We could just call all of us “Weather Journal Nation.”
We should have “Like” buttons for blog comments, like Facebook. Kevin – your #57 gets a LIKE from me.
Weather Journal Nation… i like it!!! Any chance of snow accumulations tonight in some places?
the farther west and higher up, the better chance of some ground whitening tonight.
Like #57
Yes, keeping an eye on radar and was wondering if it was going to make it across the mountains to here.
Started up a new blog post as we move into the “upslope-a-thon.”